Normative Scenarios Research Articles

Systems perspectives on transforming Swiss housing by 2040: wellbeing, shared spaces, sufficiency, and de-sprawl

The Swiss habitat–buildings and related mobility–faces multiple interconnected problems which can only be solved together. These include high energy consumption, significant climate impact, excessive material use with low circularity, accelerating urban sprawl and ecosystem destruction, high mobility costs, low inclusion, and mixed wellbeing outcomes. Guided by values of wellbeing for all within planetary boundaries, we propose a normative scenario based on a nationwide moratorium on new construction until 2100, coupled with four simultaneous neighborhood-scale interventions: renovating buildings to achieve energy class A with high indoor environmental quality, creating flexible shared living spaces, ensuring essential daily services are available within each neighborhood, and deconstructing unneeded settlements. Action levers, coordinated efforts on multiple system leverage points, are here combined with rethinking needs satisfiers. Our model predicts that full renovation could be accomplished in 14–18 years, significantly reducing labor, energy, materials, and costs both during and after the transition. Furthermore, it could reverse urban sprawl to levels seen in 1935 or even 1885, depending on deconstruction choices. These findings suggest that demand-side policies could be implemented with low risk, enhancing wellbeing, energy resilience, biodiversity, and climate action, thus providing a strong foundation for societal dialog and experimentation.

Broadening the horizon in land use change modelling: Normative scenarios for nature positive futures in Switzerland

Within scenario-based research of social-ecological systems, there has been a growing recognition of the importance of normative scenarios that define positive outcomes for both nature and society. While several frameworks exist to guide the co-creation of normative scenario narratives, examples of operationalizing these narratives in quantitative simulation modelling are still limited. To address this gap, this paper presents an example of how aspects of normative scenarios can be realized within a spatial model of land use and land cover change. This is achieved through a combination of data-driven approaches to encapsulate scenario-specific differences in local and global scale phenomena, as well as iterative expert elicitation to quantify descriptive trends from narratives. This approach is demonstrated with a case study simulating five scenarios of landscape change (three normative and two exploratory) in Switzerland between 2020 and 2060. The resulting maps of future land use and land cover exhibited distinct variations between the scenarios, notably with regard to the prevalence of areas of heterogeneous semi-natural land, such as alpine pastures and grassland, often considered culturally emblematic of Switzerland. While the simulation results were generally consistent with the outcomes expressed in the scenario narratives, following a process of expert feedback, we reflect that there are clear challenges in leveraging such results to elicit further discussions as to the desirability and plausibility of future scenarios. Specifically, the need to summarize spatial simulations in a manner that is easily interpretable and encourages consideration of the broader patterns of change rather than focusing on fine-scale details.

Budgetary Cycle and late accountability: diagnosis regarding the political judgment of government financial statements within the scope of the States

The normative scenario configured by the 1988 Constitution, in matters of public finances, reveals a dynamic structured based on the notion of budget cycle. However, the materialization of the processes that make up this cycle is permeated by decision-making operated from a perspective of supervision of social bodies and institutionalized control. In this sense, the theoretical framework regarding horizontal accountability emerges, according to O'Donnell's (1998) categorization, which translates in the issuance of the preliminary opinion by the Audit Courts and the subsequent political judgment issued of Parliament. Having as its object of work the temporal profile of the political judgment of government accounts, this paper proposes to investigate the existence of empirical distortions concerning the process of assessment and judgment of the accounts of the head of the Executive Branch of the States, and where possible delays arise – whether in the assessment and sending of the preliminary opinion by the accounting body or in the processing of the document in the legislative houses. Therefore, in methodological terms, for the purpose of articulating the diagnosis on a legal-exploratory basis, we opted for a sample selection stratified into subgroups referring to the five historically recognized regions, choosing the most populous federated entity in each region as a critical case for analysis, which takes place through the mobilization of qualitative data, extracted from primary sources (legislative decrees, draft legislative decrees and previous opinions), with a documentary analytical focus, taking as a focus the period referring to the accounts from 2010 to 2020.

Transition of the life cycle of the gold and jewellery innovation ecosystem and development of its future scenarios: The case of Mashhad, Iran’s second-largest metropolis

As the second-largest city in Iran, Mashhad has a rich history in the gold industry. Mashhad’s gold and jewellery innovation ecosystem (MGJIE) is now at a stage of decline, and renewal or sharp decline cycles lie ahead. This article explores these two scenarios and their implications for the innovation ecosystems of this industry. The first objective is to imagine the future of the MGJIE using a normative approach and formulate policies to realize an optimistic future. The second objective is to investigate the pessimistic scenario and its implications for the ecosystem. The normative scenarios are created for a 2032 horizon using the back casting method. With regard to the second objective, the exploratory approach is used for the 2047 horizon. In both objectives, 46 questionnaires and fifteen interviews are used. In the normative scenario, nine drivers are identified. In the exploratory approach, three scenarios are formulated, while in the last scenario, with the occurrence of four steps of the renewal plan, improving the performance of the ecosystem is guaranteed. Innovation is a by-product of scenario thinking. The combined application of innovation ecosystem and scenario planning in the jewellery industry has not previously been the focus of research in Iran or other countries.

Dynamic Living Space: Toward a society where people can live anywhere in 2050

Urbanization, characterized by a high concentration of population in cities, presents significant societal challenges. High population density, inadequate living conditions, and mental health problems underscore the need for innovative concepts to mitigate or reverse urbanization’s effects. This paper proposes Dynamic Living Space (DLS), a transformative concept aimed at decentralizing urban populations by extending city-like benefits to non-urban settlements. In the DLS, urban benefits are extended to sparsely populated or potentially uninhabitable regions, such as forests, mountains, and undersea areas. We created a normative scenario for the DLS by utilizing a multifaceted methodological approach, including expert interviews, group discussion, illustrated visualizing, and an international workshop. This research also outlines a roadmap for realizing the DLS by 2050 and discusses ethical, legal, and social issues and their solutions. By decentralizing urban benefits, the DLS concept could reduce the drawbacks of urban concentration, reduce infrastructure maintenance costs, and diversify areas of innovation.

Identification of drivers and affecting factors in the future of Persian medicine: The cross-impact analysis method

IntroductionPersian medicine is a holistic medical school with deep roots. It has a high educational, research, and therapeutic capacity and has been the focus of Iran's general health policies in recent years. Futures studies aid policymakers and health managers in creating normative scenarios and developing action plans using various techniques. This study aimed to identify important drivers and factors that affect the future of the Persian medicine system. MethodThis qualitative research was conducted with a futures studies approach, using the Cross-Impact Analysis (CIA) in three main steps. The first and second steps were conducted using interviews and focus group discussions. In the first step, 15 semi-structured interviews were conducted with Persian medicine experts to identify all factors affecting the future of Persian medicine. In the second step, we held three focus group discussions with 9 interviewees from step one with national-level influence to determine the influence and dependence of each factor. The third step was performed using the matrix CIA and MICMAC to identify the key factors affecting the future of Persian medicine. ResultsSixty five variables affecting the future of Persian medicine were identified, 36 related to the health system, and 29 to external factors. Factors such as globalization, knowledge-based economy, the spread of non-communicable and chronic diseases, as well as people's views and attitudes towards Persian medicine, are considered key drivers and variables that will affect the future of the Persian medicine system. The Iranian development plans as a two-dimensional and risk factor are crucial in establishing Persian medicine. ConclusionThe future of the Persian medicine system is relatively stable. The pattern of the Iranian development plans is considered the most important two-faceted factor as a risk factor in the establishment of the Persian medicine system. It is suggested that the position of the Persian medicine system in the Iranian development plans be made more prominent.

Nuclear Energy Generation, Fossil Fuel Price, Energy Mix Generation, Economic Growth, FDI Inflow and CO2 Emission: A Case Study on Developed and Developing Countries in the Asia Pacific Region

The net-zero scenario by 2050 (NZE) is a normative scenario that sets the stage for the global energy sector to reach net-zero emissions by 2050. This research aims to explore nuclear energy generation as a potential technological change in a future power generation base load, the factors that are affected and the effects on economic growth, FDI inflow, and CO2 emission in developed and developing countries in the Asia Pacific. The empirical analysis uses time-series data of nuclear energy generation, fossil fuel price, energy mix generation, economic growth, FDI inflow, and CO2 emission in the period 2001 – 2021. The inferential statistical method used to analyse in this research is a component-based using SmartPLS 3.2.9. This research find that Fossil fuel prices have no significant positive effect on nuclear energy generation in developed countries, and the opposite in developing countries, while a negative not significant effect on CO2 emission in both developed and developing countries, with a positive significant effect on economic growth in developed countries and the opposite in developing countries, with a negative significant effect on FDI inflow in developed countries and the opposite in developing countries, with a negative not significant effect on energy mix generation in developed countries and the opposite in developing countries. Nuclear energy generation has a negative not significant effect on energy mix generation in developed countries and the opposite in developing countries, with a negative not significant effect on economic growth in developed countries and the opposite in developing countries, with a positive not significant effect on FDI inflow in developed countries and the opposite in developing countries, with a positive significant effect on CO2 emission in developed countries and the opposite in developing countries. The energy mix generation find has a negative significant effect on economic growth in developed countries and the opposite in developing countries, with a positive significant effect on FDI Inflow and CO2 emission in both developed and developing countries. Economic growth has a negative not significant effect on CO2 emission in both developed and developing countries. FDI inflow has a negative significant effect on CO2 emission in developed countries and the opposite in developing countries.

Scenarios of environmental deterioration in the Paraopeba River, in the three years after the breach of B1 tailings dam in Brumadinho (Minas Gerais, Brazil)

The collapse of B1 dam at the Córrego do Feijão mine of Vale, S.A., located in the Ferro-Carvão stream watershed (Brazil), released 11.7 Mm3 of tailings rich in iron and manganese, and 2.8 Mm3 entered the Paraopeba River 10 km downstream. Seeking to predict the evolution of environmental deterioration in the river since the dam break on January 25, 2019, the present study generated exploratory and normative scenarios based on predictive statistical models, and proposed mitigating measures and subsides to ongoing monitoring plans. The scenarios segmented the Paraopeba into three sectors: “anomalous” for distances ≤63.3 km from the B1 dam site, “transition” (63.3–155.3 km), and “natural” (meaning unimpacted by the mine tailings in 2019; >155.3 km). The exploratory scenarios predicted a spread of the tailings until reaching the “natural” sector in the rainy season of 2021, and their containment behind the weir of Igarapé thermoelectric plant located in the “anomalous” sector, in the dry season. Besides, they predicted the deterioration of water quality and changes to the vigor of riparian forests (NDVI index) along the Paraopeba River, in the rainy season, and a restriction of these impacts to the “anomalous” sector in the dry season. The normative scenarios indicated exceedances of chlorophyll-a in the period January 2019–January 2022, but not exclusively caused by the rupture of B1 dam as they also occurred in areas not affected by the accident. Conversely, the manganese exceedances clearly flagged the dam failure, and persist. The most effective mitigating measure is likely the dredging of the tailings in the “anomalous” sector, but currently it represents solely 4.6 % of what has entered the river. Monitoring is paramount to update the scenarios until the system enters a route towards rewilding, and must include water and sediments, the vigor of riparian vegetation, and the dredging.

Swiss electricity supply scenarios: Perspectives from the young generation

While numerous studies have argued that public preferences need to be considered in energy transitions, the public has rarely informed the choice of normative scenarios from energy systems modelling. Using the case of Swiss electricity supply in 2035, we focus on a specific citizen group—school pupils of 10 to 18 years old—and use educational workshops to form and elicit their preferences in a way that helps choose scenarios from modelling. Initially, the 164 involved pupils had a simplistic understanding that future electricity supply mainly needs solar PV and electricity savings, but after our workshops they developed a more complete view that involved other technologies. The mean preferred scenario of the pupils for modelling relied on 88% renewable electricity, complemented by small shares of nuclear power, natural gas-based generation, and almost no net electricity imports. When compared to preferred scenarios for modelling elicited from 79 adult citizens and 60 energy experts in Switzerland, the pupils were less ambitious, since adults and experts preferred scenarios with 99% and 97% renewable sources on average. Most pupils opted for much more renewable electricity and less fossil fuel-based generation and imports than existing 82 model-based scenarios published in 2011–2018, indicating that the pupils’ preferred scenarios should complement existing scenarios.

Facilitating spatial consensus in complex future scenarios through Real‐Time Spatial Delphi: A novel web‐based open platform

AbstractThe Delphi technique is a commonly applied method for (among the various uses) achieving consensus from a group of knowledgeable experts. This approach is frequently employed to generate and prioritize ideas, identify potential solutions, and make decisions in various contexts through a series of iterative rounds. In the Futures Studies (FS) context, the Delphi method is regularly used in combination with the scenario method to explore different futures, implementing strategies in the present with the aim of averting dystopian outcomes and/or facilitating normative scenarios. Nevertheless, assuming that the convergence of opinions can also occur in spatial contexts, a shortcoming of the method is the deficiency of spatial references useful in the planning process. In this paper, we introduce the Real‐Time Geo‐Spatial Consensus System, a novel web‐based open platform useful to develop Delphi‐based Spatial Scenarios (DBSS), in an interactive and innovative interface. The platform adopts the Real‐Time spatial Delphi technique to obtain a spatial convergence of opinions among experts to offer researchers, decision‐makers, policymakers, and local authorities a new tool for complex spatial decisions. The primary innovations of the platform, including its architecture, statistical algorithms, tools, features, and outcomes, are demonstrated through a preliminary application focused on potential future climatic hazards in Dublin, Ireland.

Long-Term Visioning for Landscape-Based Spatial Planning—Experiences from Two Regional Cases in The Netherlands

Normative scenarios for long-term (e.g., 100 years) landscape development can be very inspiring to imagine outside the box landscape futures, without being obliged to define concrete policy objectives for the shorter term. However, it remains challenging to translate such long-term visions into clear transition pathways. We draw upon a landscape-based design approach to local spatial planning to foster a transition to a well-functioning landscape, resilient to various external pressures. Inspired by a national visioning exercise for the Netherlands in 2120, two local case studies at municipal level in the Netherlands are analysed, aiming to identify in what ways the setup of a regional landscape-based design study using future visions can optimise the spatial planning process. Therefore, this comparative case study analysed the cases on the landscape-based approach, the design process, and the future visions formulated. The comparison shows that fostering abiotic differences safeguards sustainable and resilient landscapes; moreover, co-creation relying on representative local actors appears fundamental for shared solutions, while a landscape-based approach guarantees transitions to adaptive and biodiverse landscapes. We conclude that a shared long-term future landscape vision is a crucial source of inspiration to solve today’s spatial planning problems. The constellation of the stakeholder group involved and the methodological setup of a visioning process are determinative for the way a long-term vision is suited to informing spatial planning for a sustainable future.

Intradiaphragmatic abscesses in a wild boar (Sus scrofa): Inspective implications based on anatomopathological evidences.

The intradiaphragmatic localization of an abscess is rarely described in humans and in other animal domestic and wild species, and can be caused by penetrative traumas (i.e., firearm injuries). Here we describe two intradiaphragmatic abscesses in a hunted adult male wild boar (Sus scrofa) pluck, associated with adhesion phenomena with the contiguous anatomical structures (pleural, phrenic, and glissonian serosas) and observed during the post mortem inspection, in accordance with the Reg. EU 627/2019. One of these lesions also presented a phreno-abdominal fistula. We found in cytopathological evaluation of the neoformations’ content the presence of spheroidal bacterial soma, characterized by linearly concatenated “Streptococcus-like” aggregation pattern. Furthermore, microbiological assays revealed a polymicrobial pattern characterized by the presence of telluric microorganisms, some of which have a marked pyogenic action (Streptococcus suis type I, Sphingomonas paucimobilis, Carnobacterium divergens, and Lactobacillus sakei). Our results and collected evidence demonstrate the pathogenetic hypothesis of bacterial contamination secondary to penetrative trauma caused by a not-mortal projectile’s wound, defining the inspective behaviour according to the cogent legislation. These lesions, in the reason of their potential relation to toxemia, bacteremia and septicemia phenomena, represent a sanitary risk that impose, from a normative point of view, the total condemnation of the carcass. These inspective implications, originating from the observation and interdisciplinary description of the anatomopathological and microbiological features of the lesions, are directly projected on the normative scenario, providing useful elements to guarantee the health of the consumer.

Inclusion and diversity in Public Administration: Where are we and how far are we in the path to an inclusive society?

The main aim of this paper is to preliminarily explore definitions and nuances within the definition of concepts such as inclusion, diversity, disability, normalization, and to try and highlight how the binary meanings implied to these definitions ( i.e. inclusion/exclusion, diversity/conformity, disability/ability) are significant to understand how these are used in management and governance strategies. This will be done mainly by reviewing previous academic contributions, then by pointing at some possible practitioner experiences already studied or indicated as hypothesis in specialized literature concerning Organization Studies. Collecting the possible perspectives about “inclusion and diversity” is instrumental to a “field definition”, and to acknowledge the “state of art” of these concepts within different contexts, such as academic scholarship, private and corporate business, public administration, and ultimately society as a whole. This means, as part of a larger research project addressing public administration especially, to investigate whether the “inclusion turn” in open public debate does factually provide a ground for changes in organizational practices, rather than staying on paper as a mere normative scenario that HR departments and lawmakers feel compelled to comply to, rather than promoting effective inclusion strategies as systematic behaviour. The ideal contribution of this paper would be to suggest some possible directions for inclusivity research in terms of scholarships and case studies.

The strengths and weaknesses of future visioning approaches for climate change adaptation: A review

Adaptation to climate change is about planning for the future while responding to current pressures and challenges. Adaptation scientists are increasingly using future visioning exercises embedded in co-production and co-development techniques to assist stakeholders in imagining futures in a changing climate. Even if these exercises are growing in popularity, surprisingly little scrutiny has been placed on understanding the fundamental assumptions and choices in scenario approaches, timeframes, scales, or methods, and whether they result in meaningful changes in how adaptation is being thought about. Here, we unpack key insights and experiences across 62 case studies that specifically report on using future visioning exercises to engage stakeholders in climate change adaptation. We focus on three key areas: 1) Stakeholder diversity and scales; 2) Tools, methods, and data, and 3) Practical constraints, enablers, and outcomes. Our results show that most studies focus on the regional scale (n = 32; 52%), involve mainly formal decision makers and employ vast array of different methods, tools, and data. Interestingly, most exercises adopt either predictive (what will happen) and explorative (what could happen) scenarios while only a fraction use the more normative (what should happen) scenarios that could enable more transformative thinking. Reported positive outcomes include demonstrated increases in climate change literacy and support for climate change adaptation planning. Unintended and unexpected outcomes include increased anxiety in cases where introduced timeframes go beyond an individual’s expected life span and decreased perceived necessity for undertaking adaptation at all. Key agreed factors that underpin co-production and equal representation, such as gender, age, and diversity, are not well reported, and most case studies do not use reflective processes to harness participant feedback that could enable more robust methodology development. This is a missed opportunity in developing a more fundamental understanding of how these exercises can effectively shift individual and collective mindsets and advance the inclusion of different viewpoints as a pathway for more equitable and just climate adaptation.

Wind-induced fatigue analysis of high-rise guyed lattice steel towers

Wind-induced fatigue is a major issue for the design of slender high-rise structures. However, there are still few studies focused on this topic, resulting in a lack of practical design procedures for this type of structures. This paper aims to fill this gap by presenting a complete and practical methodology for the wind-induced fatigue life assessment of high-rise towers and its application to a 120 m cable-stayed steel tower composed by a modular lattice. The wind actions were considered as the sum of the quasi-static component according to international codes and a numerically generated, trough an ergodic stochastic process, turbulent component which is based on the Kaimal wind spectrum. Real wind measurements were also taken for a period of 15 months on a nearby MET station which, when compared with the normative scenario, proved to be much less conservative and were not used for the safety analysis. The wind velocities were used as inputs for a nonlinear dynamic analysis from which stress time histories were derived for 10 potentially critical structural details. The damage in each detail was computed through the application of the Rainflow counting algorithm and Palmgren-Miner’s damage accumulation law, indicating the connection region between the modules as the critical detail with respect to fatigue damage.

Emerging PBL Futures: Exploring Normative Scenario Development as an apporach to support Transformation in Problem-based Learning and Higher Education

Emerging PBL Futures: Exploring Normative Scenario Development as an apporach to support Transformation in Problem-based Learning and Higher Education

The vision of sustainable sport in a backcasting research

AbstractIt is now becoming widely accepted that our economy has reached the limits both in terms of the carrying capacity of our planet and in terms of bringing real social justice to the table. Degrowth is a research area that aims to transcend mainstream approaches. While moving beyond the growth paradigm would entail serious changes in all areas of social life and Degrowth research extends into most of them, the transformation of sports is not among them. Neither is Degrowth a recognised concept among those who deal with sports. The participatory backcasting research introduced in this paper attempts to fill this void. In the backcasting project, master students of sports economics envisioned the sustainable future of sports and identified potential intervention steps that lead towards such normative states. This paper describes the results and assesses those elements that aim for strong sustainability. The results show that relocalisation and the sharing economy are the most accepted Degrowth concepts in a normative scenario on sustainable sports in this group. At the same time, the paper offers frameworks of thoughts for those who want to move beyond the slogans of sustainability either as responsible citizens or in positions related to the world of sports.

Developing Hospital Resilient Supply Chain Scenario through Cross-Impact Analysis Method

Developing Hospital Resilient Supply Chain Scenario through Cross-Impact Analysis Method

Dynamic Prospective Average and Marginal GHG Emission Factors—Scenario-Based Method for the German Power System until 2050

Due to the continuous diurnal, seasonal, and annual changes in the German power supply, prospective dynamic emission factors are needed to determine greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions from hybrid and flexible electrification measures. For the calculation of average emission factors (AEF) and marginal emission factors (MEF), detailed electricity market data are required to represent electricity trading, energy storage, and the partial load behavior of the power plant park on a unit-by-unit, hourly basis. Using two normative scenarios up to 2050, different emission factors of electricity supply with regard to the degree of decarbonization of power production were developed in a linear optimization model through different GHG emission caps (Business-As-Usual, BAU: −74%; Climate-Action-Plan, CAP: −95%). The mean hourly German AEF drops to 182 gCO2eq/kWhel (2018: 468 gCO2eq/kWhel) in the BAU scenario by the year 2050 and even to 29 gCO2eq/kWhel in the CAP scenario with 3700 almost emission-free hours from power supply per year. The overall higher MEF decreases to 475 and 368 gCO2eq/kWhel, with a stricter emissions cap initially leading to a higher MEF through more gas-fired power plants providing base load. If the emission intensity of the imported electricity differs substantially and a storage factor is implemented, the AEF is significantly affected. Hence, it is not sufficient to use the share of RES in net electricity generation as an indicator of emission intensity. With these emission factors it is possible to calculate lifetime GHG emissions and determine operating times of sector coupling technologies to mitigate GHG emissions in a future flexible energy system. This is because it is decisive when lower-emission electricity can be used to replace fossil energy sources.

Outlooks, explorations and normative scenarios: Approaches to global energy futures compared

This paper compares recent global energy scenarios developed by governments, international bodies, businesses and the scientific community. We divide the scenarios into three broad classes: outlooks which extrapolate current trends and anticipate policy developments; exploratory scenarios which may consider disruptions; and normative scenarios which derive energy system pathways consistent with a long-term goal. Many organisations are starting to blend outlooks, exploratory and normative approaches. The paper covers trends in primary energy demand to 2040, snapshots of the energy mix in 2040, drivers of demand, and the evolution of scenarios projections developed in recent years. We find sharp divergences between outlooks and normative scenarios compatible with the Paris Agreement on climate change. All published outlooks imply that the world is not on an energy pathway compatible with the Paris Agreement. We conclude with an assessment of emerging themes including: scenario benchmarking and group think; adaptation of scenarios to real world developments; and the plausibility of different types of scenarios. We propose that more dialogue between scenario developers from the scientific community and those working in governments and commercial organisations could be beneficial. Research focusing on the organisational processes through which scenarios are developed could usefully extend this work.