Identification of drivers and affecting factors in the future of Persian medicine: The cross-impact analysis method

Abstract

IntroductionPersian medicine is a holistic medical school with deep roots. It has a high educational, research, and therapeutic capacity and has been the focus of Iran's general health policies in recent years. Futures studies aid policymakers and health managers in creating normative scenarios and developing action plans using various techniques. This study aimed to identify important drivers and factors that affect the future of the Persian medicine system. MethodThis qualitative research was conducted with a futures studies approach, using the Cross-Impact Analysis (CIA) in three main steps. The first and second steps were conducted using interviews and focus group discussions. In the first step, 15 semi-structured interviews were conducted with Persian medicine experts to identify all factors affecting the future of Persian medicine. In the second step, we held three focus group discussions with 9 interviewees from step one with national-level influence to determine the influence and dependence of each factor. The third step was performed using the matrix CIA and MICMAC to identify the key factors affecting the future of Persian medicine. ResultsSixty five variables affecting the future of Persian medicine were identified, 36 related to the health system, and 29 to external factors. Factors such as globalization, knowledge-based economy, the spread of non-communicable and chronic diseases, as well as people's views and attitudes towards Persian medicine, are considered key drivers and variables that will affect the future of the Persian medicine system. The Iranian development plans as a two-dimensional and risk factor are crucial in establishing Persian medicine. ConclusionThe future of the Persian medicine system is relatively stable. The pattern of the Iranian development plans is considered the most important two-faceted factor as a risk factor in the establishment of the Persian medicine system. It is suggested that the position of the Persian medicine system in the Iranian development plans be made more prominent.