Non-traded Production Research Articles

Sovereign risk and Dutch disease

I study how, in the presence of default risk, the Dutch disease amplifies an inefficiency in the sectoral allocation of capital. In a sovereign default model with commodities and production of traded and non-traded goods, default incentives increase when more capital is allocated to non-traded production. Households do not internalize this, giving rise to an inefficiently large non-traded sector. Commodity windfalls amplify this inefficiency through the classic Dutch disease mechanism. I characterize state-contingent subsidies that implement the efficient allocation and compare them to a simpler subsidy rule that ameliorates the externality. Evidence from spreads, natural-resource rents, and sectoral investment data support the main findings of the model.

Inflação de alimentos no Brasil em período da pandemia da Covid 19, continuidade e mudanças

Desde 2007, os preços dos alimentos sobem mais intensamente do que o conjunto dos preços ao consumidor no Brasil. O objetivo do trabalho é comparar a inflação de alimentos no primeiro semestre de 2020 com a de 2007 e 2019, verificando se houve mudanças em suas características e razões. Usam-se informações do Instituto Brasileiro de Geografia e Estatística (IBGE) que permitem analisar o Índice de Preços ao Consumidor Amplo (IPCA) e seus componentes. Entre 2007 e 2019, preços da alimentação fora do domicílio expandiram-se mais que da alimentação no domicílio. Entre os componentes desta, os preços dos menos processados aumentaram mais do que os dos mais processados, indicando que a origem da inflação de alimentos foi agropecuária, com as carnes tendo grande contribuição para o fato. Por sua vez, no primeiro semestre de 2020, produtos sem comércio exterior significativo, feijão, arroz, frutas, legumes e verduras, pressionaram mais a inflação. Em todo o período, as condições de comércio exterior, preço internacional e taxa de câmbio, tiveram forte influência na inflação de alimentos. No primeiro semestre de 2020, entre as causas, ganhou relevância o aumento da demanda de alimentos nos supermercados, aparentemente não acompanhado pela expansão da oferta.

A Theoretical Note on Sector-specific FDI Inflow in Developing Economies and the Real Exchange Rate

Using a hybrid of the Heckscher–Ohlin model and specific factor model of trade, this article considers the phenomenon of FDI inflows only in the exportable sector of developing economies. We investigate the impact of such capital flow on factor prices and the real exchange rate (RER) in the host country. Our results indicate that the exportable production expands while both the non-traded good production and the return to the factor specific to the non-traded good decrease, consequent upon an inflow of capital specific to the exportable sector. The effect of such inflow of foreign capital on the RER is unambiguous and it increases. JEL Codes: F1, F21, F31

Is There a Relationship between Productivity and Relative Prices in South Africa?

Abstract The Balassa–Samuelson hypothesis proposes that there should be a direct relationship between a country’s real exchange rate and its productivity performance. Given South Africa’s (SA’s) poor relative productivity performance, a weak and depreciating real exchange rate would be expected under this hypothesis. However, the real effective exchange rate has been relatively stable since the early 2000s. We construct tradable and nontradable price and productivity measures and show that tradable sectors have tended to experience more rapid productivity growth than nontradable sectors in both SA and the United States. However, we show that there is not a strong relationship between sectoral productivity and prices in SA, or with the real exchange rate with the United States. Better explanations for SA’s deteriorating international competitiveness (shown by higher relative prices) are a relatively high domestic inflation rate caused by nontradable sectors, as well as disproportionately large increases in government wages over the post–global financial crisis period.

Terms of trade volatility, exports, and GDP

This paper relates terms of trade volatility to exports and output in a two-sector model where entrepreneurs can produce non-tradable goods or pay a fixed cost in order to export. In order to compensate exporters for the fixed entry cost, the expected return to exporting must exceed the expected return to non-tradable production. As a result, exporters are more risk-exposed and trade volatility decreases entry into the export sector. However, terms of trade insurance and hedging strategies can increase exports, GDP, and welfare.

Tradability and productivity growth differentials across EU Member States

We apply the tradable-nontradable framework (T-NT) to evaluate the lack of convergence in labor productivity among EU Member States. Our results show that increases in overall productivity are primarily due to the tradable and not the nontradable sectors of production. The low productivity growth in peripheral EU countries before the crisis was accompanied by a sharp increase in the production of nontradables (i.e. nontradable goods and services) relative to other EU countries. We identify differences in the legal systems and the quality of public institutions, among others, as factors relevant for explaining the observed productivity growth differentials. Our findings have implications for the European Commission’s macroeconomic imbalance procedures since the T-NT approach allows identifying patterns of real divergence on a disaggregated level.

The Elasticity of Substitution in Demand for Non-Tradable Goods in Bolivia

This paper uses a CES function to estimate the constant elasticity of substitution in consumption for non-tradables relative to tradables in a dependent economy framework. The methodology for generating data on real consumption of tradable and non-tradable goods, real prices of tradable and non-tradable goods and real absorption is based on the Bolivian Input-Output Matrix, producing quarterly data for the period 1990. 1 to 2002. 4. The data identify Bolivia as a country highly open to trade, with an average ratio of 55 percent in the value of exports and imports relative to GDP, non-tradable production accounting for 52 percent of GDP, and differences in the behavior of the internal and external real exchange rates. The HEGY test is used to identify and separate out seasonal unit roots in the data. A cointegration relationship was found between real absorption, the non-tradable to tradable consumption ratio and the non-tradable to tradable price ratio, suggesting inelasticity of substitution.

Tradability and Productivity Growth Differentials Across EU Member States

We apply the tradable-nontradable framework (T-NT) to evaluate the lack of convergence in labor productivity among EU Member States. Our results show that increases in overall productivity are primarily due to the tradable and not the nontradable sectors of production. The low productivity growth in peripheral EU countries before the crisis was accompanied by a sharp increase in the production of nontradables (i.e. nontradable goods and services) relative to other EU countries. We identify differences in the legal systems and the quality of public institutions, among others, as factors relevant for explaining the observed productivity growth differentials. Our findings have implications for the European Commission’s macroeconomic imbalance procedures since the T-NT approach allows identifying patterns of real divergence on a disaggregated level.

The Effect of Formal and Informal Economic Sectors to Cambodian Economy

This paper seeks to understand the effects of formal and informal economic sectors to Cambodian economy as a small developing country. To accomplish this goal, a small simple small new Keynesian dynamic stochastic general equilibrium (DSGE) model has been constructed featuring characteristic of developing economy such as price nominal rigidity, monopolistic competition, and fixed exchange rate regime. The model is estimated by using Bayesian estimation with annual Cambodian data from 1995 to 2016. The estimation results and impulse response function (IRF) of shocks such as formal non-tradable productivity shock, domestic tradable productivity shock, monetary policy shock, imported inflation shock, and foreign demand shock show that there is no shock absorbing role evidence of informality can be found in foreign demand shock, yet it can be found partially in imported inflation shock. However, there are shock-absorbing role of informality in found in informal productivity shocks.

Testing for spatial market integration: evidence for Colombia using a pairwise approach

AbstractWe examine the extent of spatial market integration in Colombia using consumer price index data for 153 consumer goods in 13 cities. An econometric analysis of the time‐series properties of all the possible city price differentials reveals that market integration tends to occur more frequently in unprocessed food products, as opposed to processed foods, other traded and nontraded products. The results also support the view that, except for nontraded products, the speed at which prices adjust to the long‐run equilibrium is slower for cities that are farther apart.

Sector Specific Inflow of Foreign Capital, Non-Traded Sector and Implications for Real Exchange Rate

This paper attempts to investigate the impact on factor prices and real exchange rate owing to an inflow of foreign capital only in the exportable sector of the host country. In doing so, we amalgamate Heckscher-Ohlin and Specific Factor models of trade which is popularly known as the H-O nugget. We show that consequent upon an inflow of capital specific to the exportable sector, both the non-traded good production and the return to the factor specific to the non-traded good decrease while the exportable production expands. The effect of such an inflow of foreign capital on the real exchange rate is unambiguous and it increases.

Assessing an agri-food development strategy: a bi-regional input–output model with resource-constrained sectors

Uneven regional development is widely recognised. This paper explores the effectiveness of a regional development strategy based on the agri-food sector expansion in a laggard agriculture dependent region. We use a bi-regional rectangular Input–Output model, explicitly taking into account the methodological and policy implications of resource-constrained products. Results confirm that local transformation of agricultural products has a positive but limited effect, due to land restrictions and impact leaks to the more complex and developed region. The regional development strategy would be more effective if it focuses instead on non-tradable products or not so dependent on natural resources.

Income Distribution, Factor Endowments, and Trade Revisited: The Role of Non-Tradable Goods

AbstractWe return to the traditional theme of the distributive consequences of international prices and trade policies, focusing on economies relatively abundant in natural resources with a large non-tradable-goods sector. Changes in international prices create an aggregate demand effect which impacts on the earnings of factors employed in the non-traded goods sector. We show that, in economies highly specialized in the production of tradable goods and where the import-competing sector is small, under standard assumptions, terms-of- trade shifts have a neutral effect on factor prices and thus lack distributive effects, quite differently from Stolper-Samuelson scenarios. In economies with sizable import-competing sectors and two “urban” productive factors (e.g. skilled and unskilled labor), changes in the terms of trade do induce distributional tensions through two channels: (i) the exogenous shift in the relative price of tradable goods, and (ii) the endogenous displacement of the demand for non-tradables. We illustrate how, according to the structure of the economy, different patterns of income distribution may arise. Next, we analyze the introduction of trade duties. Trade taxes change relative prices between tradable goods as a terms-of-trade shock does, but also introduce an additional demand mechanism, that depends on the use the government gives to the revenues. If the tax revenues are transferred back to the private sector, the resulting reallocation of spending favors those factors used intensively in the production of non-tradables.

Breaking into tradables: Urban form and urban function in a developing city

Many cities in developing economies, particularly in Africa, are experiencing ‘urbanization without industrialization’. This paper conceptualizes this in a framework in which a city can produce non-tradable goods and – if it is sufficiently competitive – also internationally tradable goods, potentially subject to increasing returns to scale. A city is unlikely to produce tradables if it faces high urban and hinterland demand for non-tradables, or high costs of urban infrastructure and construction. The paper shows that, if there are increasing returns in tradable production, there may be multiple equilibria. The same initial conditions can support dichotomous outcomes, with cities either in a low-level (non-tradable only) equilibrium, or diversified in both tradable and non-tradable production. We demonstrate the importance of history and of expectations in determining outcomes. Essentially, a city can be built in a manner which makes it difficult to attract tradable production. This might be a consequence of low (and self-fulfilling expectations) or of history. Predictions of the model are consistent with a number of observed features of African cities.

Valuing Public Goods More Generally: The Case of Infrastructure

We examine the relationship between local public goods, prices, wages, and population in an equilibrium inter-city model. Non-traded production, federal taxes, and imperfect mobility all affect how public goods (or “amenities” more broadly) should be valued from data. Reinterpreting the estimated effects of public infrastructure on prices and wages in Haughwout (2002), we find infrastructure over twice as valuable with our more general model. New estimates based on more years, cities, and data-sets indicate stronger wage and positive population effects of infrastructure. These imply higher values of infrastructure to firms, and also to households if moving costs are substantial.

Domestic market integration and the law of one price in Brazil

ABSTRACTThis article presents the first assessment of domestic market integration in Brazil using the law of one price. The law of one price is tested using two panel unit root methodologies and a unique data set comprising price indices for 51 products across 11 metro-areas. We find that the law holds for most tradable products and, not surprisingly, nontradable products are found to be less likely to satisfy the law of one price. While these findings are consistent with evidence found for other countries, price convergence occurs very slowly in Brazil, suggesting relatively limited domestic market integration.

Financial openness, the financial accelerator and sectoral dynamics

This paper studies the role of financial openness and the financial accelerator in the sectoral dynamics generated in a small open economy following capital inflow. The results show that where the financial accelerator exists, capital inflow in response to a foreign interest rate shock ultimately results in intersectoral resource transfer that is favorable to the nontradable sector under different monetary policies; the magnitude of the expansion in the nontradable sector being greater under a higher degree of financial openness. The study also finds that, in comparison to CPI inflation targeting, nontradable inflation targeting is better at mitigating resource transfers toward production of nontradables, and at reducing and stabilizing both nontradable inflation and CPI inflation. Furthermore, the findings suggest that the financial accelerator mechanism matters for the effectiveness of monetary policy in addressing dynamics pertinent to the Dutch disease phenomenon, such that CPI inflation targeting is only effective in such a scenario where the financial accelerator is non-existent, and that nontradable inflation targeting operates more effectively in the absence of the financial accelerator as well.

Domestic Market Integration and the Law of One Price in Brazil

This paper presents the first assessment domestic market integration in Brazil using the law of one price. The law of one price is tested using two panel unit root methodologies and a unique data set comprising price indices for 51 products across 11 metro-areas. We find that the law of one price holds for most tradable products and, not surprisingly, non-tradable products are found to be less likely to satisfy the law of one price. While these findings are consistent with evidence found for other countries, price convergence occurs very slowly in Brazil, suggesting relatively limited domestic market integration.

Financial Frictions and Optimal Monetary Policy in an Open Economy

A growing number of papers have studied positive and normative implications of financial frictions in DSGE models. We contribute to this literature by studying the welfare-based monetary policy in a two-country model characterized by financial frictions, alongside a number of key features, like capital accumulation, non-traded goods and foreign-currency debt denomination. We compare the cooperative Ramsey monetary policy with standard policy benchmarks (e.g. PPI stability) as well as with the optimal Ramsey policy in a currency area. We show that the two-country perspective offers new insights on the trade-offs faced by the monetary authority. Our main results are the following. First, strict PPI targeting (nearly optimal in our model if credit frictions are absent) becomes excessively procyclical in response to productivity shocks in the presence of financial frictions. The related welfare losses are non-negligible, especially if financial imperfections interact with nontradable production. Second, (asymmetric) foreign currency debt denomination affects the optimal monetary policy and has important implications for exchange rate regimes. In particular, the larger the variance of domestic productivity shocks relative to foreign, the closer the PPI-stability policy is to the optimal policy and the farther is the currency union case. Third, we find that central banks should allow for deviations from price stability to offset the effects of balance sheet shocks. Finally, while financial frictions substantially decrease attractiveness of all price targeting regimes, they do not have a significant effect on the performance of a monetary union agreement.

One Interest Rate for All - Has the European Central Bank Enough Instruments?

This paper explains the European debt crisis not as a result of insufficient fiscal discipline but as the result of a constructional flaw of the EMU. The reason for this flaw are the diverging real interest rates in EMU countries, which trigger self-reinforcing debt-spirals in the presence of non-tradable goods and immobile production factors. The data presented support this view. It is argued that the ECB must employ country specific monetary instruments to cope with this problem.