Non-significant Negative Trend Research Articles

GIS-based spatio-temporal analysis of rainfall trends under climate change in different agro-ecological zones of Wolaita zone, south Ethiopia

Understanding the spatiotemporal dynamics of climatic conditions within a region is paramount for informed rural planning and decision-making processes, particularly in light of the prevailing challenges posed by climate change and variability. This study undertook an assessment of the spatial and temporal patterns of rainfall trends across various agro-ecological zones (AEZs) within Wolaita, utilizing data collected from ten strategically positioned rain gauge stations. The detection of trends and their magnitudes was facilitated through the application of the Mann–Kendall (MKs) test in conjunction with Sen's slope estimator. Spatial variability and temporal trends of rainfall were further analyzed utilizing ArcGIS10.8 environment and XLSTAT with R programming tools. The outcomes derived from ordinary kriging analyses unveiled notable disparities in the coefficient of variability (CV) for mean annual rainfall across distinct AEZs. Specifically, observations indicated that lowland regions exhibit relatively warmer climates and lower precipitation levels compared to their highland counterparts. Within the lowland AEZs, the majority of stations showcased statistically non-significant positive trends (p > 0.05) in annual rainfall, whereas approximately two-thirds of midland AEZ stations depicted statistically non-significant negative trends. Conversely, over half of the stations situated within highland AEZs displayed statistically non-significant positive trends in annual rainfall. During the rainy season, highland AEZs experienced higher precipitation levels, while the south-central midland areas received a moderate amount of rainfall. In contrast, the northeast and southeast lowland AEZs consistently received diminished rainfall across all seasons compared to other regions. This study underscores the necessity for the climate resilient development and implementation of spatiotemporally informed interventions through implementing region-specific adaptation strategies, such as water conservation measures and crop diversification, to mitigate the potential impact of changing rainfall patterns on agricultural productivity in Wolaita.

Spatio-temporal characteristics of Heat stress over Nigeria using evaluated ERA5-HEAT reanalysis data

Nigeria's growing population faces an increasing heat burden with potential health risks. The Universal Thermal Comfort Index (UTCI) links outdoor conditions and human well-being but lacks comprehensive insitu data in developing regions like Nigeria. ERA5-HEAT reanalysis offers a solution with gridded UTCI and MRT data, but validation is crucial. Thus, this study evaluates the ERA5-HEAT UTCI against data from nine Nigerian weather stations and analysed the spatio-temporal patterns of heat stress trends. Results showed that ERA5-HEAT demonstrated reasonable statistical performance and captured the temporal characteristics and patterns of UTCI across Nigeria's climatic zones. Seasonal variations show heat stress levels from "slightly cold" to "moderate" at 0600 LST and "moderate" to "very strong" at 1500 LST. Geographical consistency exists within each season over the decades, with a critical "very strong" heat stress period during March-May. Additionally, there has been an increasing spatial expansion of areas experiencing higher heat stress levels across the country. Latitudinally, stable patterns exist across decades at 0600 LST for each season. Seasons show distinct UTCI values, and at 1500 LST, more variability and category transitions occur along latitudes. Furthermore, the results indicate significant positive trends and occasional non-significant negative trends over the 40-year period. Notably, during 0600 LST, the Guinea and Sahel regions exhibit relatively higher positive trends than the Sudan region in all seasons, whereas at 1500 LST, high positive trends are prominent in DJF and MAM seasons, indicating increased heat stress during peak seasons. These positive deviations in UTCI are associated with adverse effects on human health, including increased mortality rates.

Exploring the association of Indigeneity, social adversity status and externalizing symptoms in children and adolescents.

The relationship between Indigeneity, social adversity status and externalizing symptoms is complex and unclear. This study investigates how Indigeneity, social adversity status and externalizing symptoms are related in young people. A total of 132 Indigenous and 247 non-Indigenous young people aged 6-16 years were recruited from a hospital mental health outpatient service. Normality plots with statistics for social adversity status and parent-reported externalizing symptoms were completed for the two groups, matched for age, gender, mental disorder symptom severity, symptom-linked distress and impairment. Standard multiple regression was used to examine how Indigeneity moderates the relationship between social adversity status and parent-reported externalizing symptoms. A scatterplot investigated the association between Indigeneity and social adversity status in young people with parent-reported externalizing symptoms. The distributions of the two groups and (1) social adversity status and (2) parent -reported externalizing symptoms were non-normal but acceptable for a moderator analysis. Indigeneity and social adversity status made independent significant positive contributions to externalizing symptoms. In contrast the interaction between Indigeneity and social adversity status made a nonsignificant negative trend to externalizing symptoms. A scatterplot revealed Indigeneity moderated the link between social adversity status and externalizing symptoms. High social adversity status is linked to externalizing symptoms in non-Indigenous young people but despite higher social adversity, Indigenous young people don't necessarily externalize. Potential protective resilience factors for externalizing symptoms in the Indigenous young people need to be ascertained and nurtured. Future systematic investigations of the contribution of these protective factors to Indigenous referral pathways and management are needed. It is also crucial that increased social adversity status is addressed and managed in all young people, regardless of Indigeneity.

Synoptic weather patterns during fire spread events in Siberia

Several recent studies have indicated a strong relationship between extensive wildfires in Siberia and synoptic-scale weather processes. In this study, we used the concept of fire spread events to investigate the relationships between synoptic and surface-level weather conditions and extensive wildfires in Siberia during 2001–2022 using the MODIS and ERA5 reanalysis products. We analyzed the spatio-temporal features and seasonality of fire spread events in the region and found that most of them occurred in the central part of Eastern Siberia (ES) during the summer months, following the wildfire season in the region. A significant positive trend in the annual count of fire spread events was found in ES, coinciding with non-significant negative trends in cloud cover and precipitation and non-significant positive trends in air temperature and the fire weather index. Results show that in the ES region, which accounts for 46 % of the total number of considered events, the main driver of fire spread events is the formation of a positive geopotential height anomaly, which, based on the pattern of the meridional wind component, indicates the presence of an anticyclone above the area of fire spread events. The presence of a high-pressure zone causes a decrease in cloud cover over regions with fires, leading to increases in the amount of incoming solar radiation and surface air temperature and a decrease in precipitation. These conditions contribute to the drying of fuel and an increase in the overall fire hazard level, which in turn leads to an intensification of the combustion process, as evidenced by an increase in the radiative power of fires.

Co-Cultivation and Matching of Early- and Late-Maturing Pearl Millet Varieties to Sowing Windows Can Enhance Climate-Change Adaptation in Semi-Arid Sub-Saharan Agroecosystems

In semi-arid regions, climate change has affected crop growing season length and sowing time, potentially causing low yield of the rainfed staple crop pearl millet (Pennisetum glaucum L.) and food insecurity among smallholder farmers. In this study, we used 1994–2023 rainfall data from Namibia’s semi-arid North-Central Region (NCR), receiving November–April summer rainfall, to analyze rainfall patterns and trends and their implications on the growing season to propose climate adaptation options for the region. The results revealed high annual and monthly rainfall variabilities, with nonsignificant negative trends for November–February rainfalls, implying a shortening growing season. Furthermore, we determined the effects of sowing date on grain yields of the early-maturing Okashana-2 and local landrace Kantana pearl millet varieties and the optimal sowing window for the region, using data from a two-year split-plot field experiment conducted at the University of Namibia—Ogongo Campus, NCR, during the rainy season. Cubic polynomial regression models were applied to grain-yield data sets to predict grain production for any sowing date between January and March. Both varieties produced the highest grain yields under January sowings, with Kantana exhibiting a higher yield potential than Okashana-2. Kantana, sown by 14 January, had a yield advantage of up to 36% over Okashana-2, but its yield gradually reduced with delays in sowing. Okashana-2 exhibited higher yield stability across January sowings, surpassing Kantana’s yields by up to 9.4% following the 14 January sowing. We determined the pearl millet optimal sowing window for the NCR to be from 1–7 and 1–21 January for Kantana and Okashana-2, respectively. These results suggest that co-cultivation of early and late pearl millet varieties and growing early-maturing varieties under delayed seasons could stabilize grain production in northern Namibia and enhance farmers’ climate adaptation. Policymakers for semi-arid agricultural regions could utilize this information to adjust local seed systems and extension strategies.

Genetic gain of grain yield and quality in bread wheat cultivars representing 40 years of breeding in Morocco

Background. Knowledge about the genetic gain for fundamental traits over time is essential for a critical assessment and improvement of breeding programs, especially regarding staple crops like bread wheat.Materials and methods. To estimate the genetic gain in bread wheat breeding in Morocco, grain yield (GY) and grain protein content (GPC) data were collected from 12 multi-environment field trials for 20 bread wheat cultivars released between 1980 and 2022.Results and discussion. Analysis of variance highlighted a high significant variability between environments (E), cultivars (G), and a significant G × E interaction (P < 0.001). Based on stability analysis, the modern cultivars released during the two last decades (2002–2012 and 2013–2022) showed the highest performances and wider stability than old ones, especially in low-yielding environments. Genetic gain (GG) for GY was 21.4 kg ha−1 yr−1 (0.75% yr–1) over 4 decades of breeding. This progress was declining when advancing in decades and ranged from 11% (from 1980–1990 to 1991–2001) to less than 7% (from 2002–2012 to 2013–2022). The GG in low and intermediate yielding environments were the most important (17.34% and 6.88% yr–1 respectively), while GG was nonsignificant in high-yielding environments (4.62% yr–1). Within the same period, GPC showed a nonsignificant negative trend of –0.007% (–0.002% yr–1), while derivative parameters from GY and GPC indicated high positive genetic progress. More efforts should be deployed to implement a good balance between yield performance and quality in the new released cultivars despite the negative correlation between these two traits (r = –0.36; P < 0.001).Conclusion. Adopting advanced technologies, like genomic selection, adequate agronomic practices, and more efficient selection criteria are essential steps to further increase simultaneously grain yield and quality traits.

Chronic oral exposure to Amistar fungicide does not significantly affect colour discrimination but may impact memory retention in bumblebees

BackgroundIntensive agriculture, including pesticides, is one of the many reasons for pollinator decline. The EU legislation on plant protection products (hereon pesticides) demands that the risks of active substances and their use in pesticide products are assessed for bees. However, the risk assessment is not always sufficient as shown, for example, in the case of the fungicide Amistar. The fungicide has been shown to cause lethal and sublethal effects on bumblebees at levels that, according to the EU risk assessment, do not require risk mitigation measures to protect bees. In order to understand the effects of chronic Amistar exposure on bumblebees, we studied whether 5 days of oral exposure to 0.015 µl Amistar (3.75 µg azoxystrobin/day) impairs bumblebees’ learning and memory performance in the 10-colour discrimination task.ResultsChronic Amistar treatment did not impair the learning of the bees, but a statistically non-significant negative trend was observed in memory retention between the final learning bout and the subsequent memory test.ConclusionsThe results of our study suggest that chronic sublethal exposure to Amistar fungicide did not significantly impair the learning ability of bumblebees. However, there was a trend towards impaired memory retention, although this was not statistically significant. These findings provide further support for the hypothesis that Amistar may have a negative effect on bee cognitive performance. It is important to continue studying the effects of widely used pesticides on pollinators, as their decline is a complex issue with multiple contributing factors. Understanding the effects of different pesticide residue levels on bumblebees can inform policymakers in making more sustainable pesticide legislation and help protect pollinators.

Anomalous thermal and winds condition drove low surface chlorophyll-a in La Paz Bay during the 2015–2016 El Niño event

La Paz Bay (LPB) considered one of the most highly productive bays in the southwestern Gulf of California, Mexico, recently established as Priority Marine Region, supports many species of ecological importance. In this context, daily composites of surface chlorophyll a (Chl-aSAT), sea surface temperature (SST) satellite images derived from the MODIS-Aqua sensor, and a wind intensity index (WI) calculated with data recorded simultaneously at four points along the coast, were used to describe the strong 2015–2016 El Niño impact over the surface chlorophyll pigments in LPB, relative to its average for 2003–2013. Significant relationships between SST, WI (used as environmental factors) and Chl-aSAT (RSST = −0.74, RWI = −0.40, P < 0.01) were found using exponential models for the entire study period, with moderate correlation during El Niño winter condition (December 2015 to March 2016) between SST and Chl-aSAT (RSST = 0.45, P < 0.02). The Chl-aSAT showed unexpectedly low values (∼0.5–1.2 mg m−3) with one month-lag of the winter bloom period jointly with the presence of warmer-than-usual water (∼1.0 °C) and episodes of strong northwesterly winds (speed 8.0–10.0 m s−1) that began in autumn that drove a ∼2 month-lag in its winter peak. The Chl-aSAT and SST winter spatial patterns, showed low Chl-aSAT values (∼−0.5 to −1.0 mg m−3) along the bay and higher-than-usual SST by ∼ 0.5–1.0 °C relative to a year under the La Niña winter condition (2017–2018). This triggered the possible thermocline deepening and the lowest levels of nutrient supply to the photic layer during the El Niño winter episode. Hovmöller diagrams of Chl-aSAT and SST anomalies along the coast revealed a sharp drop to negative anomaly values (∼− 0.7 to −1.2 mg m−3), in-phase but negatively correlated with the SST coastal anomalies (R = − 0.88, P < 0.01). This biophysical coupling played a crucial role in the exceptional drop to the lowest winter Chl-aSAT levels seen in LPB since the MODIS satellite sensor began taking measurements in 2002 (Chl-aSAT values were lower than usual by ∼ 0.9–1.2 mg m −3). Besides the lowest winter levels observed, this research reflected the El Niño signal-driven changes over the basic seasonal average of the LPB climate system The non-significant negative trend observed in the winter average Chl-aSAT values, indicates that LPB may be less resilient to future environmental disturbances.

Abstract TP111: The Role Of Hypomagnesemia In Acute Ischemic Stroke: Analyses Of The Mimic-iv Database

Background/Objective: Hypomagnesemia is commonly seen in critically ill patients and may cause complications and increase mortality. The study is conducted to investigate the patient’s characteristics and outcomes of critically ill patients with acute ischemic stroke (AIS) and hypomagnesemia. Hypothesis: We hypothesize that patients with acute ischemic stroke (AIS) and hypomagnesemia associate with poor prognosis. Methods: Patients with AIS are identified in the Medical Information Mart for Intensive Care IV database from 2008 to 2019. Hypomagnesemia is defined as ≤ 1.5 mEq/L. Propensity score matching is conducted to balance clinical heterogeneity using age, sex, Charlson Comorbidity Index (CCI), Acute Physiology Score (APS) III. We measured the linearity association between the hypomagnesemia and in-hospital mortality using a restricted cubic splines model. Results: Totally, we included 1,486 patients with AIS (103 patients having hypomagnesemia). Compared with patients without hypomagnesemia, those with hypomagnesemia were older (69.6±12.6 v.s. 68.6±14.3; P = 0.477; Table 1) and had higher CCI (7.8±2.3 v.s. 6.8±2.7; P &lt; 0.001; Table 1), and APS III (43.0±20.5 v.s. 39.5±19.0; P = 0.074; Table 1). After matching, 103 pairs were left. There is no difference regarding in-hospital mortality (14.6% v.s. 13.5%; P = 0.766; Table 1) between each two group, even after matching (14.6% v.s. 14.6%; P = 1.000; Table 1). There was a non-significant negative linear trend between hypomagnesemia and in-hospital mortality (Figure 1). Conclusions: Patients with hypomagnesemia have poor characteristics; however, hypomagnesemia is not a risk factor of in-hospital mortality.

Using Landsat satellite imagery to monitor the spatial and temporal dynamics of aquatic weed extent in Lakes Chivero and Manyame, located in an urban catchment of Zimbabwe

This study quantified the spatial and temporal variation of aquatic weeds in two lakes in an urban catchment of Zimbabwe using the automatic water extraction index (AWEI) and normalised difference vegetation index (NDVI) derived from Landsat satellite data from 1986 to 2020. Extent of aquatic weeds estimated using AWEI in Lake Chivero increased from less than 1 km2 (4%) in 1986 to 7 km2 (27%) in 2020. NDVI-based aquatic weed estimation gave the least spatial extent in the first few years. Similarly, in Lake Manyame aquatic weeds occupied ~62 ha (&lt;1% in 1986) before reaching a peak extent of 60 km2 (~70%) in 1995, based on AWEI estimates. NDVI-derived aquatic weed extent ranged from less than 2 km2 in 1997 to a maximum of 56.12 km2 in 1994. Although AWEI and NDVI estimated similar extents, NDVI had higher estimates than AWEI. A non-significant positive trend in aquatic weed extent was detected for Lake Manyame based on AWEI (Mann-Kendal tau = 0.139, s = 69, p = 0.27) and NDVI (Mann-Kendal tau = 0.129, s = 64, p = 0.307). In Lake Chivero, a non-significant negative trend was observed in aquatic weed extent based on NDVI (Mann-Kendal tau = −0.06, s = −30, p = 0.6382), while a positive trend was detected using AWEI (tau = 0.0036, s = 18, p = 0.7827). Results of the regression analysis indicate that phosphorus (R2 = 0.7957, p = 0.00122) and nitrogen (R2 = 0.8992, p = 0.0011) significantly explained variations in aquatic weed infestation in Lake Chivero. These results suggest that phosphorus and nitrogen enrichment are key drivers of aquatic weed proliferation in the two lakes. Thus, sustainable management of water resources in the catchment hinges on reducing the amount of nutrients released into the lakes from sewage treatment plants and croplands.

Spatiotemporal variations in surface albedo during the ablation season and linkages with the annual mass balance on Muz Taw Glacier, Altai Mountains

ABSTRACT Melt-albedo feedback on glaciers is recognized as important processes for understanding glacier behavior and its sensitivity to climate change. This study selected the Muz Taw Glacier in the Altai Mountains to investigate the spatiotemporal variations in albedo and their linkages with mass balance, which will improve our knowledge of the recent acceleration of regional glacier shrinkage. Based on the Landsat-derived albedo, the spatial distribution of ablation-period albedo was characterized by a general increase with elevation, and significant east–west differences at the same elevation. The gap-filling MODIS values captured a nonsignificant negative trend of mean ablation-period albedo since 2000, with a total decrease of approximately 4.2%. From May to September, glacier-wide albedo exhibited pronounced V-shaped seasonal variability. A significant decrease in annual minimum albedo was found from 2000 to 2021, with the rate of approximately −0.30% yr−1 at the 99% confidence level. The bivariate relationship demonstrated that the change of ablation-period albedo explained 82% of the annual mass-balance variability. We applied the albedo method to estimate annual mass balance over the period 2000–2015. Combined with observed values, the average mass balance was −0.82 ± 0.32 m w.e. yr−1 between 2000 and 2020, with accelerated mass loss.

Climate change simulation and trend analysis of extreme precipitation and floods in the mesoscale Rur catchment in western Germany until 2099 using Statistical Downscaling Model (SDSM) and the Soil & Water Assessment Tool (SWAT model).

Due to climate change and global warming, speed and intensity of the hydrological cycle will accelerate. In order to carry out regional risk assessment, integrated water resources management and flood protection, far reaching predictions and future scenarios of climate change effects on extreme precipitation and flooding are of particular relevance. In this study, trends in frequencies of extreme precipitation and floods until 2099 are analysed for the German Rur catchment, which is half located in highlands and half in lowlands and therefore has a high topographical and climatological contrast. To predict future trends, coupled modeling is performed based on NCEP reanalysis data and a General Circulation Model (GCM). Assuming HadCM3 future emission scenarios A2a and B2a, an empirical Statistical Downscaling Model (SDSM) is developed and daily precipitation amounts are projected until 2099 by a stochastic weather generator. The generated precipitation data are used as an input for the ecohydrological Soil & Water Assessment Tool (SWAT model) to simulate daily water discharge until 2099. Statistical trend analyses are implemented based on three annual extreme precipitation indices (EPIs) and the magnitudes of ten flood return periods derived with GEV and Gumbel extreme value distributions for 109 30-year moving periods using regression analyses and Mann-Kendall tendency tests to check for significant trends in the frequencies until 2099. As a result, it could be demonstrated for all EPIs that the frequency of extreme precipitation in the upper Rur catchment will significantly increase by +33% to +51% until 2099 compared to the base period 1961-1990, whereas mostly non-significant negative trends of extreme precipitation can be projected in the lowlands. For runoff, it was found that the magnitudes of the ten flood return periods will significantly increase by +31% for B2a to +36% for A2a until 2099 compared to the base period.

Climatology and trend of tourism climate index over China during 1979–2020

Tourism is influenced by many drivers and is sensitive to global warming, making it important to investigate how tourism responds to climate change. However, comprehensive analysis on tourism climate over China is still limited. In this study, the tourism climate index (TCI hereafter) over China is constructed by the temperature-humidity index, precipitation, cloud cover and wind-chill index from ERA5 reanalysis during 1979–2020, the climatology and trend of the TCI in the context of recent climate change is investigated. It shows that a significant warming occurs over overall China with an annual warming rate of 0.28 °C/decade. Under the background of rapid warming, the mean annual TCI rating over China is 5.25, and has increased significantly at a rate of 0.02 per decade. This indicates that the tourism suitability over China is generally “acceptable” for human body sensation during 1979–2020, and the climate change has a far-reaching impact on the development of tourism over China. Moreover, the index of precipitation, cloud cover and wind-chill has significantly positive trends and the temperature-humidity index has a nonsignificant negative trend during 1979–2020, which contribute to the TCI changes over China with exhibiting notable spatial heterogeneity and difference among different climate zone types. This study contributes to a systematic understanding of the possible mechanisms underlying the TCI and its climatic drivers, and provides strategic decisions for tourism polices over China.

Trend analysis of water flow on Neka and Tajan rivers using parametric and non-parametric tests

River flow is an essential parameter in hydrology and water resources studies with mutual interaction with climate elements. So, studying the discharge change trend in the rivers is crucial for management programs and the design of irrigation and drainage systems. In the present study, river flow data measured at six hydrological stations at Neka (Ablu, Golverd, SefidChah) and Tajan (KordKhil, Rigcheshmeh, Soleimantangeh) rivers in Mazandaran Province have been studied by using Mann-Kendall test, age test, and regression analysis during the statistical period of 1976–2006. The MAKESENS 1.0 software was used to reveal annual and seasonal discharge change trends. Results of the present study showed that only two stations – Soleimantangeh and Rigcheshmeh – had decreasing trend at 5% significance level in yearly terms. In contrast, the regression analysis showed just significant trends at Soleimantangeh station. No crucial trends have been observed in the seasonal scale; in spring and autumn, most of the stations had a non-significant negative trend. By considering the methods used to evaluate trends in this study (Mann-Kendall test, age test, and regression analysis), it was observed that all the rivers had had decreasing and negative trends. The performance of parametric and non-parametric tests was similar in most cases.

Abstract 14353: Feminizing Hormone Therapy and Subclinical Indicators of CVD Risk in Transgender Women With HIV

Introduction: Transgender women (TW) are at higher risk of HIV infection compared to cisgender groups and HIV is associated with accelerated cardiovascular disease (CVD) complications. A high proportion of TW use feminizing hormone therapy (FHT), particularly estrogen. However, there is a scarcity of data about the cardiovascular impact of FHT in TW with HIV (TWH). Subclinical indicators of CVD risk, arterial stiffness and endothelial progenitor cells colony forming units (EPC-CFUs), were examined in TWH with and without FHT. Hypothesis: Estrogen use in FHT reduces arterial stiffness and induces EPC proliferation. Methods: This pilot included adults 20-60 years old, identifying as TW, with a documented HIV-1 diagnosis, stable ART ≥ 6 months, and without history of CVD. Sociodemographic questionnaire was completed prior to an in-person blood collection and applanation tonometry assessment. Groups were stratified by estrogen levels (normal: 1-82pg/ml vs high: &gt;82pg/ml) and relationships with EPC-CFUs and arterial stiffness were examined using t-test and Pearson’s correlation. Results: Median age was 42 yrs. (IQR 34-52) with mean glucose 105.70 mg/dl (± 58.07), triglycerides 138.52 mg/dl (± 69.61), LDL 82.38 mg/dl (± 35.01), and CRP 3.45 mg/L (±3.57). TW with high (n=5) and normal (n=12) estrogen levels had similar values in EPC-CFUs counts (p=0.99), central augmentation index (cAIx; p=0.27), carotid to radial pulse wave velocity (CR-PWV; p=0.20), and carotid to femoral PWV (CF-PWV; p=0.87). A positive trend appeared in log-transformed estradiol across cAIx (r=0.32, p=0.21); negative trends in CR-PWV (r=-0.11, p=0.70) and CF-PWV (r=-0.19, p=0.48), and no relationship with EPC-CFUs (r=0.05, p=0.86). There were non-significant negative weak trends between EPC-CFUs and cAIx (r=-0.32, p=0.21), CR-PWV (r=-0.2, p=0.48), and CF-PWV (r =-0.29, p=0.27). Conclusions: An inverse correlation between EPC-CFUs and arterial stiffness measurements was observed. Considering these test modalities have a strong correlative potential with CVD risk, FHT does not appear to confer higher CVD risk through these mechanisms. Further research to understand the mechanisms underlying HIV related CVD pathophysiology is critically needed especially in TWH.

Trend and change point detection of seasonal rainfall for effective crop planning over southern transition zone of Karnataka, India

The significance of the trends was tested by Mann-Kendall test for annual and seasonal rainfall. Among the 14 taluks, only Hassan taluk shows a significant positive trend in annual rainfall while eight taluks have shown non-significant positive trend and remaining five taluks have shown non-significant negative trend. The annual rainfall for the entire zone have shown non-significant positive trend. For the SWM season, Alur taluk shows a significant negative trend and eight taluks have shown non-significant positive trend. However, five taluks and whole zone showed a non-significant negative trend. Southwest monsoon and annual rainfall in Bhadravathi taluk was increased in 2007 (571.9 mm to 785.1 mm and 857.6 mm to 1090.9 mm, respectively) and in Shivamogga, the change in annual rainfall was decreased during 1983 (1497.5 mm to 944.0 mm) and 2011 (944.0 mm to 796.6 mm). The northeast monsoon rainfall was increased during 1992 (134.3 mm to 441.1 mm) and it was decreased during 1994 (441.1 mm to 162.0 mm) in Shikaripura taluk. Similarly, in Hunsur taluk, the SW Monsoon rainfall has increased (701.8 mm to 1010.2 mm) during 1991 and it was decreased during 2001 (1010.2 mm to 723.3 mm), in Periyapatna and Honnali taluk, Northeast monsoon rainfall has decreased during 2012 and 2011, respectively.

Assessing the impact of climate on annual and seasonal discharges at the Sremska Mitrovica station on the Sava River, Serbia

Abstract Flood frequency analysis was performed on annual maxima series for 90 years (1928–2017) of discharge data recorded at the Sremska Mitrovica gauging station on the Sava River. The three-parameter distributions (PearsonIII, Log-PearsonIII) are more suitable for modelling annual maxima than distribution functions with only two parameters (Normal, Log-normal, Gumbel). The Mann–Kendall test statistic indicated that there is no statistically significant trend identified in annual maximum discharges or average annual discharges. A positive increasing trend was observed in annual temperature, while annual precipitation shows a decreasing trend which is non-significant. The seasonality analysis found a statistically non-significant weak negative trend in discharge in spring, summer and autumn and a statistically non-significant weak positive trend in winter. During winter, spring, and summer a non-significant negative trend in precipitation was observed, while autumn has experienced a statistically significant increasing trend. Temperatures show a positive trend in all seasons, but only temperatures during the warm period show a statistically significant increase. The results demonstrate that decreasing discharges of the Sava River at the Sremska Mitrovica gauging station are mainly the consequence of decreasing precipitation and increasing temperature (increasing evaporation), which is consistent with the results of other studies of the region.

Trend analysis on temperature and precipitation over North China Plain for past five decades

The trend of change in temperature and precipitation in North China Plain over past few decades was examined using the non-parametric Mann-Kendall test in this paper. For the temperature part, a significant positive trend in annual temperature (0.03 °C/year) and a non-significant negative trend in annual precipitation (-0.67 mm/year) are found over the North China Plain (NCP) from 1960 to 2009. Furthermore, the winter temperature change and summer precipitation are found to be the most important factors for annual temperature and precipitation change. The winter temperature increases 0.04°C per year. As for the summer precipitation, it increases by 11% to the south of the Yellow River, over the NCP, and decreases by 20% to the north from 2000-2009 compared to 1990-1999. The reveal of the changing pattern in precipitation is a good start for us to further understand the main driving force of these changes and make a forecast on that.

68 Ga DOTANOC PET/CT Scan in Primary Juvenile Nasopharyngeal Angiofibroma - A Pilot Study.

Somatostatin receptors (SSTRs) are highly expressed in neuroendocrine tumors and is exploited for its imaging and treatment. SSTRs expression is also demonstrated in diverse benign and malignant tumor cell types and proliferating peri-tumoral vessels. Similarly, Juvenile Nasopharyngeal Angiofibroma (JNA) expresses different SSTRs and may be utilized for its imaging and treatment using DOTA, 1-Nal3-octreotide (DOTANOC)-PET/CT scan. Prospective cohort. Nineteen clinico-radiologically diagnosed primary JNA patients underwent a 68 Ga-DOTANOC PET-CT scan. Using a dedicated PET/CT scanner, a low-dose head and neck spot CT scan was performed after 45 to 60 minutes of intravenous injection of 2 to 3 mCi(74-111 MBq) of DOTANOC. The primary objective was to assess the intensity and pattern of DOTANOC uptake in these patients. DOTANOC expression was noted in all cases (n=19) of primary JNA (100%). The mean (SD) DOTANOC SUVmax ratio of tumor and background was 6.9+/-1.4(range, 3.8-9.5). Intra-cranial extension in all 13/19 patients was prominently visualized due to the absence of DOTANOC uptake in the brain. Compared to the background all stages of JNA showed significant DOTANOC uptake (P < .0001). No difference in uptake between advanced-stage tumors and early tumors was noted (P=.47). A statistically non-significant negative trend was noted for decreasing uptake with increasing age (Spearman correlation coefficient, r=-0.19). This first study of 68 Ga-DOTANOC-PET/CT scan in JNA demonstrates consistent and reliable uptake activity in all patients irrespective of age and stage. This opens up possibilities to physiological diagnostic imaging with a promise of greater specificity and sensitivity and may have applications in ambivalent diagnostic situations such as the detection of recurrence. 3 Laryngoscope, 131:1509-1515, 2021.

AFFORDABLE IVF: DETERMINANTS OF LIVE BIRTH OR ONGOING PREGNANCY AFTER FIRST CYCLE OF LETROZOLE (LTZ) – GONADOTROPIN (GN) MILD STIMULATION, IMMEDIATE ICSI, AND INTRAVAGINAL EMBRYO CULTURE

To determine what patient and cycle factors are associated with a favorable outcome when mild ovarian stimulation and immediate ICSI are combined with intravaginal embryo culture. Observational cohort of all 252 women with their first cycle start on this protocol in our practice from 6/2018 to 12/2019 who planned fresh transfer, comprising nearly all our first ART cycles. Later patient cycles were censored for lack of 24-week follow-up. Ongoing pregnancy (24+ weeks’ gestation) or live birth (OP/LB) was modeled by logistic regression. Women were non-tobacco users with BMI <40 kg/m2. LTZ x5 days was started 4 d after oral contraceptives were stopped, then overlapped on its 5th day with customized dose gonadotropins. No GnRH analogs were used. Cycle monitoring was repeated if necessary before hCG trigger; retrieval was 35 hr later under mild sedation in a hospital office. Metaphase (M) oocytes were immediately treated by ICSI and placed with media into an INVOcell (INVO Biosciences, Sarasota, FL), which was secured in the upper vagina by a diaphragm. Typically after 5 days, if available 1-2 blastocysts (blasts) were transferred. We modeled OP/LB according to patient and stimulation factors and oocyte and embryo outcomes using JMP Pro 12.0.1 (SAS Institute, NC). Mean female age was 34.2 (±4.6) yr; 25% had AMH <1.0 ng/mL, 67% were nulliparous, and 42% had prior pregnancy loss(es). Stimulations used 5–10 mg/day LTZ (5 mg in 69%) plus 1000 ± 500 units FSH over a median of 4 days (range 1-9). Only one follicle scan was done in 79%. Cancellation rate was 15%. Retrievals successfully obtained M-stage oocytes in 93% (M-2 in 78%), with a mean of 1.9 M-2's and 1.3 M-1's. Transfer [of blast(s)] followed 82% [60%] of 202 successful retrievals, with 93% of transfers on Day 5. There were 47 pregnancies ongoing or resulting in live birth. By univariable regression, factors associated (p<0.05) with OP/LB included age (odds ratio [OR] 0.92/yr; 95% confidence interval [CI] 0.85–0.98); total number of metaphase (M) oocytes (OR 1.24; 95% CI 1.08–1.42) and M-2 oocytes (OR 1.50; 95% CI 1.24–1.84) retrieved; and number of blasts obtained (OR 2.47; 95% CI 1.67–3.81). LTZ at 10 mg/d and higher daily GN dose were each negatively associated with OP/LB. No association of OP/LB was found with serum AMH, (nulli)parity, prior pregnancy loss, M-1 oocytes retrieved, or transfer of 2 vs. 1 blast. A non-significant negative trend was found for association of OP/LB with cycle-day-3 E2 (p=0.08) and total GN dose (p=0.09), and a positive trend with number of embryos transferred (p=0.07). After adjustment for M-2 oocyte number, LTZ dose (p<0.01) and total GN dose (p<0.015) were each negatively associated with OP/LB; age retained borderline significance (p=0.07). Our lower-cost ART protocol, with LTZ-based mild stimulation, few monitoring visits, and intravaginal embryo culture, is more successful in younger women. M-2 oocyte yield and blast formation are predictive for successful pregnancy, but transfer of a second blast did not improve outcome. Higher LTZ and GN doses as employed were not associated with greater success.