A magnetospheric substorm is the sequence of processes which occur throughout the magnetosphere following a southward turning of the interplanetary magnetic field and the onset of dayside reconnection. An isolated substorm consists of three phases, growth, expansion and recovery. Two primary processes make up a substorm. The directly driven component visible in the global, two cell current system is powered by the direct projection of the solar wind electric field onto the conducting ionosphere. The unloading component seen as the one cell intensification of the westward electrojet near midnight is powered by processes internal to the plasma sheet. The intensity of substorms can be measured by a variety of activity indices, the most common of which are magnetic indices. The solar wind controls the intensity of substorms through the process of magnetic reconnection. Time series analysis has established that 40 min after a southward turning of the interplanetary magnetic field the strength of the electrojets is correlated with solar wind parameters through a nonlinear coupling function similar to V 2B Sin 4( θ 2 ) ( where θ = IMF clock angle about Sun vector). Linear filter analysis of the magnetospheric system response shows that the average impulse response for the AL index is a Rayleigh function peaking at a lag time of 60 min and diminishing to zero after 3 h. The average response function for a sequence of moderate substorms is bimodal with peaks at 25 and 70 min, while more intense activity is uni-modal with only the 25 min peak. Response functions for individual substorms have peak amplitudes and delays that can be substantially different from the average. The linear analysis predicts less than half the variance in the AL index when high resolution indices are used. These results imply that reconnection on the day and night side are delayed relative to the solar wind by differing amounts which vary with conditions in the solar wind, magnetosphere, and ionosphere. Currents are driven through the ionosphere that are proportional to the reconnection rates which are in turn proportional to the solar wind electric field, but their strength depends on ionospheric conductivity. Conductivity depends on season, prior activity, and the way in which a particular substorm develops. Computer simulation of substorms with a simple ‘leaky tap’ model suggests that one reason for lack of short term predictabilty is likely to be that the magnetosphere is nonlinear with behavior depending both on previous conditions and the strength and wave form of the solar wind input. New techniques of analysis of magnetic indices support this conjecture. As with the Earth's surface weather, accurate space weather predictions will probably require extensive real-time observatory networks both in the solar wind and magnetosphere.