Low-dose computed tomography (LDCT) has shown promise in the early detection of lung cancer in prior observational studies. The National Lung Screening Trial (NLST) is the largest multicenter, randomized, controlled trial comparing LDCT with chest radiography with an intention-to-screen analysis (1). High-risk (.30 pack-years) active or ex-smokers between 55 and 74 years of age (n 1⁄4 53,454) were screened three times at 1-year intervals and followed for a median of 6.5 years. Lesions suspicious for cancer (noncalcified nodules . 4 mm) were found in 39.1% of individuals with LDCT and 16.0% with radiography during the trial. A total of 96.4% of these lesions in the LDCT group and 94.5% in the radiography group were false-positive results. The LDCT group had 247 deaths from lung cancer per 100,000 person-years and the radiography group had 309 deaths per 100,000 person-years. This meant a 20% (95% CI, 6.8–26.7; P 1⁄4 0.004) relative reduction in mortality from lung cancer, and a 6.7% (95% CI, 1.2–13.6; P 1⁄4 0.02) reduction in all-cause mortality with LDCT screening. Of the 17,053 LDCT lesions suspicious for cancer in which cancer was not confirmed, 457 (2.7%) resulted in an invasive procedure, with 11 (0.06%) major complications. Multiple unanswered questions regarding lung cancer screening remain. First, this study was done at large centers of excellence, with potentially different results at smaller hospitals. Second, 1,060 individuals in the LDCT and 941 in the radiography group were found to have lung cancer, suggesting the possibility of overdiagnosis with LDCT (2). Are there individuals who die with, rather than from, lung cancer (3)? Third, the implications for smoking cessation are unclear. Smokers might use screening as a tool to continue smoking. Alternatively, a positive screening test might also induce smokers to quit. Last, there are unanswered questions about the optimal demographic group to screen (age, sex, and smoking history), frequency and duration of screening, risks of increasing radiation exposure, risks of false-positive tests, and cost. The number of LDCT screening tests needed to prevent one lung cancer death was 320. I believe this study should not inform health policy decision making until these questions are better answered.
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