Non-base Sectors Research Articles

Service Industries and Local Labour Markets: Towards 'An Anatomy of Service Job Loss'

A consequence of the basic non-basic distinction in industrial geography is the treatment of the non-basic sector as a form of black box, from which predictable employment change outcomes emerge as a result of changes in demand induced by changes in the basic sector. Implicitly there are assumptions of static and spatially uniform organisation, technology and labour process. This paper argues that important changes in production process, industrial organisation, technology and forms of employment do take place in all service industries just as they do in manufacturing, and that they have spatially variable effects on local labour markets. It applies the production change strategies of Massey and Meegan's Anatomy of Job Loss to the service sector, and shows that with modifications, and the addition of a number of strategies specific to service industries they can contribute significantly to our understanding of change in local labour markets.

A NOTE ON THE GENERAL MATHEMATICAL EQUIVALENCY OF ECONOMIC BASE AND AGGREGATE INPUT‐OUTPUT MULTIPLIERS: FACT OR FICTION*

ABSTRACT A longstanding inconsistency in the definition of basic and nonbasic economic activity is resolved. When indirect exports are included in the basic, rather than the nonbasic sector, and the model is closed with respect to households, economic base and aggregate input‐output mulitpliers constructed with the same data and definitions will be mathematically identical.

On sraffa's "standard commodity" and the rate of profit

This note proves the inconsistency of Sraffa's Standard Commodity with the Marxian approach. It also shows to be wrong his deduction that non-basic sectors have no effect on the dectermination of prices and the rate of profit.

Regional Variations in Cyclical Employment

In this paper the author develops and tests a model of regional responses to national business-cycles. The model divides cyclical decline in each state into two sectors: a basic sector and a nonbasic sector. The industrial mix, capital—labor ratio, age of capital stock, level of unemployment insurance benefits, labor shortage, and extent of labor-force unionization of a state are hypothesized to influence the response to national recessions by the economy of a state. Employment decline in the nonbasic sector of the economy of a state is a function of employment decline in basic industries and is transmitted through a short-run multiplier. The model is tested on data from five post World War 2 recessions between 1950 and 1975. The findings indicate that industry mix at the two-digit Standard Industrial Code level explains 36% of the across-state variation in cyclical employment. The results also indicate that an old capital-stock, a nonunion labor force, and generous unemployment insurance benefits promote cyclical stability in state economies.

Further evidence of a short-run economic base multiplier

Economic base theorists have long debated whether the economic base multiplier occurs rapidly in the short-run or requires a longer period to filter down. This paper provides further statistical evidence that the base multiplier is a short-run phenomenon. Spectral analysis and a cross-correlation function were used to compare two weighted activity indexes representing the basic industries and the nonbasic industries. The activity employment index representing the basic sector was found to lead the weighted payroll activity index for the nonbasic sector by one quarter. The employment index revealed a high cross-correlation when it lead a personal income index by two quarters. The results are important when considering the number of state and federal agencies which utilize an economic base analysis.

An Urban Land Use Model Using Muliple Periods Data

There have been many empirical urban land use models made up to the present. But most of them used only one year or one period data for their model calibration. Those models were not examined in the light of time series analysis. Therefore, planners have been afraid that they may misproject in long term projection while they can get good results in a short term one. Model builders have been interested in time space land use models. But they can not have built such a model. One main reason is the lack of time series cross section data of urban activities distribution. This study shows a time space land use model. This model allocates household and employment at 18 zones in the Matsuyama metropolitan area (population 530 thousand in 1980). The model was examined with the data from 5 periods during 25 years from 1955 to 1980.This model looks like the Lowry model. It is composed of the basic sector (manufacture, public utilities and govenment), the household sector, the nonbasic sector (construction, wholesale and retail, bank insurance and real estate, and services) and the agriculture sector. The number of those employed in industries in the nonbasic secrtor and agriculture and the number of households are estimated by linear regression equations. But the number employed in industries in the basic sector are given exogeneously.The model calibration was carried out in two ways. First it was done by period. We got five sets of parameter values estimated for each regression equation. Then pooling data calibration was done. The results of these calibrations were good. The value of the multiple correlation coefficient is more than 0.97 in every regression case except the one of construction employment of which the least value is 0.93. The signs of most parameters estimated meet our expectation. T values of the parameter in the case of pooling data have less than 0.1% significance level except for 2 of all 14 parameters.Trend analysis of 5 parameter values, estimated by period, showed no meaningful trend. With this result, it is difficult to estimate the future value of a parameter which is expected to be useful in long term projection from its trend analysis.Two cases of long term projection which start in 1955 and end in 1980 with each parameter set were executed. One case used the parameter values determined from pooling data regression, and the other case used those derived from the first period regression (1955-1960). The number employed by industry and households were projected by zone in 1980. As for the number of households, the average error rate per zone was 32% for the pooling parameter case and 38% for the first period parameter case. We can not say whether this result means bad projection or not in a practical sense because there has been no other examination of long term projection until now. However, this result shows that the large value of multiple correlation coefficient which is found by regression analysis will not always guarantee the success of long term projection.

Invariant Distributional Regularities of Nonbasic Spatial Activity Allocations: The Garin—Lowry Model Revisited

This paper extends the Garin–Lowry model of spatial activity allocations along its demographic dimension. The zonal distribution of activities in the nonbasic (service) sector is shown to be stable irrespective of variations in the zonal distribution of activities in the basic (export) sector. This conjectured regularity is explained by observed similarities in the rates of consumption and in the demographic structure of the population in various zones of a region. Also variations in patterns of journeys from work to home do not appear to have a significant effect on nonbasic spatial-activity allocations.