The use of shield method in tunnel construction is limited by the engineering conditions of highwater pressure. This is mainly due to the uncertainty of the pressure-bearing capacity of the sealing chambers of the shield tail under different grades and conditions when subjected to different external water pressures. Therefore, it is crucial to determine the pressure-bearing capacity of the sealing chambers. However, there is a lack of studies on the calculating method of the pressure-bearing capacity, which requires more theoretical investigation. To explore the common patterns of multi-grade sealing-related parameters and quantify the pressure-bearing capacity of the sealing chambers, a breakdown and leakage model of the shield tail is proposed, targeting the basic sealing unit of the system. Based on non-Newtonian fluid dynamics and fractal theory of porous media, the model is used to calculate the breakdown pressure and grease seepage rate corresponding to tunneling and shutdown states. In addition, a hydraulic breakdown device of the sealing unit of the static shield tail is built to investigate the relationship between the shield tail clearance and the shield tail brush porous media area, which helps to verify the theoretical model. Finally, the analysis of sealing chamber geometry parameters, grease rheological parameters, and an environmental parameter using the proposed theoretical model shows that the pressure-bearing capacity of the shield tail can be improved by increasing the shield tail clearance and grease yield stress. It also shows that the length of the sealing chamber and the plastic viscosity of the grease do not have a significant effect on the breakdown pressure of the shield tail. The model proposed in this paper will provide ideas for the calculation of the pressure-bearing capacity of multi-grade sealing chambers in the future.