Non-market Production Research Articles

Measurement of Income with Time Use with Applications to Hedonic Indicators of Happiness and Misery

The present paper examines several issues involved in expanding national economic accounts and quantitative social indicators to include the 'consumption' of time. The first part examines this question in the context of the standard national economic accounts. It derives equilibrium conditions for consumer behavior with market and non-market consumption along with intrinsic values of time in different activities. Using a standard index-number approach, it shows that the growth of real income can be approximated by a weighted average of productivity growth rates in market and non-market productivity and that the valuation of hours drops out of the formula. The second part of the paper examines the role of quantitative social indicators using the approach of hedonic psychology to value time in different activities. It concludes that hedonic measures do not meet the standards for a interpersonally cardinal variable that are required to construct a meaningful quantitative social indicator.

Total income and ecosystem service sustainability index: Accounting applications to holm oak dehesa case study in Andalusia-Spain

This research develops the novel concept of an economic ecosystem service sustainability index from the perspective of total income theory, and presents its empirical application at the spatial unit scale of the agroforestry farm. This paper compares the results accrued from applying the refined standard System of National Accounts (rSNA) and the authors’ Agroforestry Accounting System (AAS). The AAS extends the rSNA to capture economic activities without manufactured production costs and substitutes the production cost valuations for exchange values revealed/stated by consumer willingness to pay for consumption of final products without market prices, the aim being to provide more comprehensive figures for total and environmental incomes of the agroforestry farms. Both accounting frameworks are applied to a case study of sixteen large, non-industrial, privately-owned holm oak dehesas (agroforestry farms) in Andalusia-Spain. This dehesa application provides estimates for the economic ecosystem service, total income factorial allocation, total capital and economic ecosystem service sustainability index for the aggregate and individual economic activities of the dehesa, distributed between accounts for the farmer and government institutional sector economic activities. The AAS explicit measurements of the hidden rSNA ecosystem services and environmental incomes of the dehesa allow us to further our scientific understanding of the current and future contributions of environmental income from nature to the total income of society as well as to provide information to the policy makers so that action can be taken to mitigate the depletion and degradation of environmental assets. This dehesa application reveals that environmental income measured by the AAS accounts for 67 % of total income in 2010. The dehesa AAS and rSNA ecosystem services share 34 % and 26 % of total product consumptions, respectively. Coupled with the AAS economic ecosystem service sustainability index of 0.5 and the rSNA economic ecosystem service sustainability index of 0.2, these figures indicate total product over-consumption in 2010. The dehesa case study shows that the AAS ecosystem services and environmental incomes are 2.5 and 8.4 times higher than those of the rSNA, respectively. Once the theoretic robustness of non-market product consumption simulated transaction value is accepted, as in the AAS methodology, the expected official economic ecosystem accounting framework will mainly depend on its ongoing standardization by the United Nations Statistical Division and implementation by individual governments. Thus, the challenge of standardizing and implementing such a framework is more closely linked to governmental policy measures than to the current scientific weakness of non-market product consumption valuations.

The impact of deforestation on collection and domestication of Jernang (Daemonorops spp.) and other NTFPs in southern Sumatra, Indonesia

Villagers in southern Sumatra collect a number of NTFPs for cash income and subsistence as a supplement to cultivated crops. Deforestation restricts the availability of NTFPs. The aim of the study was, with point of departure in Jernang, to investigate the transition between collection and cultivation of NTFPs. A village survey encompassing 57 households involved in collection, cultivation and/or trade of Jernang in two villages with high NTFP collection was carried out.The study revealed that more than 20 species or species groups of NTFPs were collected, albeit many of them only occasionally and by few people. In addition to Jernang, tree legume pods (Parkia and Archidendron) were the most collected products. Collection of most NTFPs was gendered. Jernang was almost entirely collected by men, since it implies trekking in forest and climbing. Albeit Jernang collectors found that both quantity and income from collection had declined, very few considered to abandon collection. A combination of economic incentives, poor regulations, and psycho-cultural motives for collection and connectedness to forest lead to intensive harvest. The harvest was less intense for other reported NTFPs, which was explained by shorter harvest season, non-marketable products, bulkiness and poor storability. To compensate for declining wild resources, villagers had started cultivation of some NTFPs, primarily Jernang and legume trees. For Jernang, shortage of planting material and fear of theft of fruits were seen as the greatest barriers to cultivation. The study showed that decreased availability of wild NTFPs, high prices and lack of replacement species may lead to cultivation. Adoptability was restricted by both technical problems (e.g. propagules), competition with domesticated crops, and cultural habits. The study gives an insight into the process of domestication of NTFPs at the interface between collection and cultivation.

Humus balance in a short crop rotation of Right Bank Forest Steppe of Ukraine depending on fertilization systems of typical chornozemic soil

Four year research (2015–2018) at Bila Tserkva National Agrarian University proved that plant residues and non-market products of the field five course grain row rotation are important sources for soil humus formation. On the unfertilized areas, fertilized withn8 t/ha of animal manure + N76P64K57, 12 t/ha of animal manure + N95P82K72 and 16 t/ha of animal manure + N112P100K86 humus percentage formed due to humification of plants matter was correspondently 51.4; 40.3; 37.7 and 36.1 %, with animal manure – 0; 15.3; 17.2 and 18.7 %, with by-products of farming – 44.0; 40.8; 41.7 and 42.1 %, with herbage of white mustard – 4.6; 3.6; 3.4 and 3.1 %. With the increase of fertilizers level this index regarding plants matter and green manure decreases, while animal manure provides for the index slight increase. On the unfertilized areas humus balance under cultivated crops as sunfl ower and corn is negative, but under other crops in rotation it is positive. On the fertilized areas under all crops this index is positive. When applying the biggest amount of fertilizers, annual gain in soil humus is 1.1 t/ha. Humus balance is negative on all the variants of research under the condition of disposal of non-market products from the fi elds of crop rotation. Along with plants matter, plant by-products and herbage of white mustard the amount of humus provided to the soil was equal to the application of correspondently 14–33, 12–36 and 1.3–2.6 t of animal manure per hectare of tilled fi eld. Under zero, the fi rst, the second and the third levels of soil fertilization, soil received correspondently 4.08; 5.98; 7.46 and 8.73 t of plants matter 68–71 % of which are root and the others are above surface. The percentage of by-products of crops in the rotation increases with fertilizers amount increase. Soy, winter wheat, sunfl ower and spring barley have a bigger gain in above surface rather than root mass due to increase of fertilizers amount. The highest productivity from one hectare of tilled fi eld in a crop rotation (5.63 t of dry matter, 7.84 t of fodder units, 0.671 t of digestible protein) is gained due to application of 16 t/ha of animal manure + N112P100K86, though the most economically viable amount is 12 t/ha animal manure + N95P82K72. Key words: humus balance, soil, fertilizers, crop, by-products, plants matter, crop rotation, grain crops, index of ecologization, productivity.

Valuing Productive Non-market Activities of Older Adults in Europe and the US

Abstract We measure the economic contribution of older adults (i.e., adults age 60+) in Europe and the US by examining participation in and calculating value generated by market activities and productive non-market activities (PNMA). We find that the estimated value of market and non-market contributions of older adults in the sample countries in Europe and the US sum to the equivalent of 7.3% of gross domestic product, while older adults make up 24% and 21% of the European and US population, respectively. In addition, notable variation exists in the composition of older adults’ economic contributions by age group, national setting, and gender—with a significant proportion of overall value generated from PNMA when monetized in relation to market activities. Regarding retirement policy, we find at the country level that the value generated from increased employment may be offset by the loss of value from decreased PNMA and that the impact of retirement policy on overall productivity depends on the ratio of market to non-market productivity in a country. Finally, we find that severe but common health shocks such as heart attacks, strokes, and the onset of cancer affect both market activities and PNMA appreciably across countries and genders, with an overall greater reduction in market activities by males and in PNMA by females. Taken together, we show that PNMA comprises a substantial share of older adults’ productive contributions and argue that it should be considered in policy discussions regarding retirement age, pension taxes, and healthy aging.

On a Theoretical Analysis of the Family and Economic Growth

The paper considers the prospects of constructing theoretical postulates on the family that is consistent with some of the main features of economic growth. Theoretical abstraction of the parameters involved based on the intergenerational dynastic model is analyzed and compared to evidence. Descriptive and analytical technique were employed in analyzing the model. Nonmarket productivity levels and their effect on initial human capital endowment of households were also considered.

The destruction phase of public sector innovation: regulations governing school closure in Australia

In the Schumpeterian conception, innovation is the "perennial gale of creative destruction" (Schumpeter 1976 [1942], p. 84). This evolutionary process consists of two entangled but distinct forces; the creation phase and the destruction phase. This insight has been applied to non-market production. However, studies in public sector innovation are almost exclusively focused on the creation phase. This paper presents a new way of identifying mechanisms for destruction in the public sector context by analyzing the regulatory framework governing service delivery. The study presents an analysis of the regulations governing school closure in Australia, which is supplemented with an historical case study. The study finds that Ministerial discretion is the sole mechanism of school closure. It is proposed that this method of analysis is capable of being applied to other public sector services. Overall, the implication from this analysis is that an understanding of regulatory constraints is fundamental to a Schumpeterian understanding of public sector innovation.

The Destruction Phase of Public Sector Innovation: Regulations Governing School Closure in Australia

In the Schumpeterian conception, innovation is the ‘perennial gale of creative destruction’ (Schumpeter 1976 [1942], p. 84). This evolutionary pro-cess consists of two entangled but distinct forces; the creation phase and the de-struction phase. This insight has been applied to non-market production. How-ever, studies in Public Sector Innovation are almost exclusively focused on the creation phase. This paper presents a new way of identifying mechanisms for destruction in the public sector context by analyzing the regulatory framework governing service delivery. The study presents an analysis of the regulations governing school closure in Australia, which is supplemented with an historical case study. The study finds that Ministerial discretion is the sole mechanism of school closure. It is proposed that this method of analysis is capable of being applied to other public sector services. Overall, the implication from this analysis is that an understanding of regulatory constraints is fundamental to the Schumpeterian understanding of public sector innovation.

Estimated annual and lifetime labor productivity in the United States, 2016: implications for economic evaluations

Background: Human-capital based lifetime productivity estimates are frequently used in cost-of-illness (COI) analyses and, less commonly, in cost-effectiveness analyses (CEAs). Previous US estimates assumed that labor productivity and real earnings both grow by 1% per year.Objectives: This study presents estimates of annual and lifetime productivity for 2016 using data from the American Community Survey, the American Time Use Survey, and the Current Population Survey, and with varying assumptions about real earnings growth.Methods: The sum of market productivity (gross annual personal labor earnings adjusted for employer-paid benefits) and the imputed value of non-market time spent in household, caring, and volunteer services was estimated. The present value of lifetime productivity at various ages was calculated for synthetic cohorts using annual productivity estimates, life tables, discount rates, and assumptions about future earnings growth rates.Results: Mean annual productivity was $57,324 for US adults in 2016, including $36,935 in market and $20,389 in non-market productivity. Lifetime productivity at birth, using a 3% discount rate, is roughly $1.5 million if earnings grow by 1% per year and $1.2 million if future earnings growth averages 0.5% per year.Conclusions: Inclusion of avoidable productivity losses in societal-perspective CEAs of health interventions is recommended in new US cost-effectiveness guidelines. However, estimates vary depending on whether analysts choose to estimate total productivity or just market productivity, and on assumptions made about growth in future productivity and earnings.

Prospects for Conversion of Refinery Gas to High-Octane Oxygen-Containing Components of Motor Fuels

Prospects for conversion of refinery gas to high-octane components of motor fuel were discussed. The feedstock of the Russian petrochemical complex can be expanded by introducing light hydrocarbons— nonmarketable refinery waste products—in the production of ecologically safe high-octane components of gasoline based on tert-butanol and isopropanol. A series of articles in the field of related applied research and experimental developments were announced.

Equivalence scales for extended income in the U.S

Estimates of extended household income (the sum of market income and the imputed value of non-market household production) should adjust for differences in household size and composition using equivalence scales. However, the equivalence parameters traditionally applied to market income do not plausibly apply to non-market income. Economies of scale in the relationship between living standards and household income are greater for non-market income from household production than market income, and the costs of children relative to adults are higher in household production time than in cash expenditures. Also, the presence of a full-time family caregiver significantly reduces cash expenditures on child care. This paper proposes equivalence scales that can be separately applied to the components of extended income, and demonstrates their empirical relevance with pooled data from the American Time Use Survey for 2010–2014. The proposed parameters significantly alter the relative contribution of non-market income to extended income and modify comparisons of extended income across different family household types, with particularly significant implications for the relative well-being of those with and without full-time family caregivers.

Clinical evaluation of marketed orthodontic products: are researchers behind the times? A meta-epidemiological study

BackgroundThe role of marketing and industry in the treatment decisions of orthodontists has received increasing attention in recent years with clinical research typically undertaken subsequent to established use of these devices and often failing to confirm the promise of manufacturers’ claims. This meta-epidemiological study was undertaken to assess the proportion of clinical trials in orthodontics evaluating commercially marketed products and to evaluate the direction of the results of these studies.MethodsElectronic searching was undertaken to identify randomized controlled trials (RCTs) published over a 5-year period (1 January 2012 to 31 December 2016). Data obtained included the type of marketed intervention, direction of effect and declaration of both industry sponsorship and conflict of interest.ResultsEighty-four RCTs published in 23 scientific journals were included with the highest percentage in the American Journal of Dentofacial Orthopedics (AJO-DO) (23.8%), followed by the European Journal of Orthodontics (EJO) (14.3%), Journal of Orthodontics (JO) (10.7%) and Angle Orthodontist (AO) (10.7%). Overall, 45% (38/84) of clinical trials assessed involved analysis of marketed products after their introduction. Interventions to improve oral health or circumvent the risk of iatrogenic damage, such as white spot lesions, were most commonly assessed (15.8%), with the relative merits of non-surgical adjuncts (14.1%) and other orthodontic auxiliaries (13.1%) also frequently evaluated. In 44% of RCTs, a positive effect of the marketed intervention was not reported. Industry sponsorship of the research was declared in 9.5% RCTs. No significant associations between the direction of the effect and both declaration of industry sponsorship (p = 0.56) and conflict of interest (p = 0.96) were detected. Moreover, for marketed and non-marketed products, no significant associations for both declaration of industry sponsorship (p = 0.44) and conflict of interest (p = 0.28) were found.ConclusionsAlmost half of orthodontic clinical trials over the past 5 years involve analysis of marketed products after their introduction. The results highlight a potential source of waste in orthodontic research emanating from existing approaches to licensing and marketing of orthodontic products.

GDP, Time Allocation and Annual Time Worked Per Adult in Central and Eastern European Countries

Received: July, 20161st Revision: October, 2016Accepted: February, 2017IntroductionFor decades, the Union of Soviet Socialist Republics (USSR) maintained tight control over the present-day countries of Central and Eastern Europe (CEE). They were either an integral part of the socialist state, or a kind of satellite within the so-called Eastern Bloc formed after World War 2. In the early 1990s, as a result of the Soviet Union's collapse, the situation changed. Regaining independence and the resultant opening up of the economies to cooperation with Western Europe and the US marked the beginning of the transformation processes. In each country the transformation was characterised by different intensities, leading to differing levels of prosperity. These political, economic and social changes were accompanied by certain processes taking place on a global scale, including the information revolution, the growth of female participation in the labour market, the marketization of domestic production, and the increasing role of the service sector in the structure of economies. Virtually all of these phenomena had a significant impact on people's time allocation, exerting a different influence on the behaviour of men and women (Freeman and Schettkat, 2005; Lee and Wolpin, 2010; Bridgman, 2013; Ngai and Petrongolo, 2014).An interesting direction of research in this area is an analysis of the decisions taken within households and the changes in the standard of living of their members (Hill, 1979, pp. 31-39; Hawrylyshyn, 1977, pp. 79-96). In this case, the findings of sociological research should be complemented by observations done from the perspective of economics. Unfortunately, in economics the traditional methodology of explaining human behaviour overlooks a large part of the activities connected with managing limited resources. By investigating decisions taken in the context of monetary price and monetary income, economists naturally tend to focus their attention on the market activities of households. In this way, a significant part of economic decisions that are taken in the non-market sphere remain overlooked (Michael and Becker, 1973, p. 380). Numerous analyses show that the structure of total work time (market and household) depends on gender, with men usually performing more market work and women dominating in terms of non-market production activity (Gershuny and Robinson, 1988, pp. 544-545; Bianchi et al., 2000, p. 196; Eurostat, 2004, p. 75; Burda et al., 2006, pp. 15-16; Gimenez-Nadal and Sevilla, 2014, pp. 1901). In this context it is worth noting that the distinction between market work and leisure used in the traditional model of labour supply ignores non-market production activities, thereby reducing the role of women in creating that part of the social well-being of households which can be fulfilled through economic activity.Gross domestic product, the commonly used measure of growth and prosperity at the macroeconomic level, focuses on market productivity activities, which means that the value of such statistics does not fully reflect the productive activities of societies or their wealth (Landfeld and McCulla, 2000, pp. 290-291; Goldschmidt-Clermont and Pagnossin-Aligisakis, 1999, p. 520). For a long time there have been calls for changing or expanding this aggregate and, more generally, for changing the system of national accounts (SNA) (Kuznets, 1934, p. 4; Hawrylyshyn, 1977, p. 94; Eisner, 1988, p. 1612; Lutzel, 1989, p. 337; Landfeld and McCulla, 2000, p. 290). In recent times, which in this case means for more than two decades, there have been proposals for real change in this respect (System of National Accounts, 1993, p. 608 and following). The idea of so-called satellite accounts has a chance to be implemented and become a permanent instrument in official statistics. However, it will take some time before this happens.It is also difficult not to agree with the argument that using such a macroeconomic indicator of market activity can lead to incorrect conclusions in international comparisons (Ferber and Birnbaum, 1980, p. …

Prospects of the Conversion of Refinery Gas to High-Octane Oxygen-Containing Components of Motor Fuels. Review

Prospects of the conversion of refinery gas to high-octane components of motor fuel are discussed. The resource base of the Russian petrochemical complex is proposed to expand by involving light hydrocarbons – nonmarketable refinery waste products – into the production of ecologically sound high-octane components of gasoline based on tertiary butyl and isopropyl alcohols. A series of articles in the field of related research and experimental developments are announced.

Wages, Housework and Attitudes in the Philippines

This paper is one of the few studies that systematically analyzes housework in the Philippines. It seeks to understand how wages and attitudes to work and family life affect the time devoted to housework. Based on different specifications and estimators, our findings indicate that respondents’ own wages are not a significant predictor of the hours they spend on housework but that they are a significant predictor of the time spouses devote to non-market production. We find that husbands’ housework hours are positively affected by female respondents’ wages, while wives’ housework hours are negatively affected by male respondents’ wages. We turn to the Philippine context to explain these results and find the combination of egalitarian society and gender inequality in the labor market to be plausible explanations. Results also show that both wages and attitudes have direct effects on wives’ housework time but that some of the effects of wages are mediated by respondents’ attitudes toward gender roles. JEL code: D13, J22

Nonmarket Work Among Working-Age Disability Beneficiaries

More than US$100 billion is spent annually by the U.S. federal government in income maintenance in the form of Social Security Disability Insurance (SSDI) to workers with disabilities—the majority of whom are not in the labor market. Despite this large sum, however, little is known about the extent to which disability beneficiaries contribute to the economy through nonmarket work. This study uses data from the 2003–2012 American Time Use Survey, matched to the Current Population Survey, to provide the first nationally representative analysis of nonmarket time use among SSDI beneficiaries. A replacement wage approach is then used to assign monetary value to beneficiaries’ nonmarket time and to evaluate the relative contribution of that monetary value to gross domestic product (GDP) and average aggregate SSDI payments. Results indicate that beneficiaries, on average, report nearly 4.5 hr per day of nonmarket production. These inputs would comprise between .69% and .98% of total GDP if they were compensated in the market, depending on methodology and year of observation. Furthermore, the value of beneficiaries’ inputs exceeds the cost of average aggregate payments to beneficiaries across all years. Thus, SSDI beneficiaries report substantial production, albeit not in the market.

Ecosystem accounting for measuring total income in private and public agroforestry farms

We develop an ecosystem accounting system to estimate individual products' biophysical and total income indicators. The ecosystem products are grouped into private and public activities and measured consistently with the principle of exchange value of the standard national accounts. Private products comprise timber, cork, firewood, conservation forestry, grazing, livestock, hunting, crops and private amenity, while the public ones comprise mushrooms, carbon, water, public recreation, landscape and threatened biodiversity services. Our accounting approach revises and extends the standard agricultural and forestry sector income accounts by incorporating intermediate products, natural growth, private amenity, carbon sequestration and capital gain. Furthermore, our approach extends the standard government sector income accounts by including the economic value of the consumption of public final products delivered by ecosystems on the basis of simulating prices for non-market products. We apply the agroforestry accounting system to a group of 39 agroforestry farm case studies in Andalusia, Spain. We provide results for two agroforestry farm groups: publicly owned coniferous forest and privately owned native hardwood forest (dehesa). Total income attained, on average, €140 per hectare in coniferous forests and €352 per hectare in dehesas. Cork natural growth and private amenity are the main products explaining private income in dehesa farms. Forestry activity products, particularly timber natural growth and the intermediate products of conservation forestry, are the main sources of private income in the coniferous forests. Public incomes from non-market products are the main contributors of total income in dehesas and forests.

Effects of Single-Row Transplantation on Improving Strawberry Growth and Marketable Yield

This study shows how the growth of the top part of plants cultivated using the single-row strawberry method, with 12 cm plant spacing, as well as that of plants cultivated through conventional planting, is characterized by the presence of many leaves in the first flower cluster harvest. The leaf area and crown diameter were the largest in the 12 cm spacing method. The hight top fresh weight (59.2 g) was detected wen the 12 cm spacing method was used followed by conventional planting and, 9 cm and 6 cm spacing method. The K and Ca contents in the first flower cluster were the highest when the 12 cm spacing method (2.0% and 2.1%, respectively) and conventional planting, (0.42% and 0.86%, respectively) were used, and these values were significantly higher than the K and Ca contents obtained using the other two methods. The N, P, Mg, Fe, and B contents show no significant differences across the planting methods. The sugar content of the first flower cluster fruits was the highest when the 12 cm spacing method was used, while the sugar content of the fourth flower cluster fruits was highest after conventional planting. Firmness was the highest in the first, third, and fourth flower clusters after conventional planting, while no significant differences were observed for the 6 cm, 9 cm, and 12 cm spacing methods. A yield of 25 g or above during November to December was observed to be the highest when the 12 cm spacing method was used, while a yield of 10-16 g was the highest when both the 9 cm and 12 cm spacing methods werw used. The yield of products in January-April was the highest when the 12 cm spacing and conventional planting methods were used, and total product yield was also the highest for these methods. A significant portion of non-marketable products (39 g) was obtained when the conventional planting method was used.

Does the United States have a Productivity Slowdown or a Measurement Problem?

After 2004, measured growth in labor productivity and total factor productivity (TFP) slowed. We find little evidence that the slowdown arises from growing mismeasurement of the gains from innovation in information-technology (IT)-related goods and services. First, mismeasurement of IT hardware is significant prior to the slowdown and because the domestic production of these products has fallen, the quantitative effect on productivity is larger in the 1995-2004 period than since, despite mismeasurement worsening for some types of IT. Hence, our adjustments make the slowdown in labor productivity worse. The effect on TFP is more muted. Second, many of the tremendous consumer benefits from smartphones, Google searches, and Facebook are, conceptually, non-market: Consumers are more productive in using their nonmarket time to produce services they value. These benefits raise consumer well-being but do not imply that market-sector production functions are shifting out more rapidly than measured. Moreover, estimated gains in non-market production are too small to compensate for the loss in overall well-being from slower market-sector productivity growth. In addition to IT, other measurement issues we can quantify (such as increasing globalization and fracking) are also quantitatively small relative to the slowdown.

Does the United States have a Productivity Slowdown or a Measurement Problem

After 2004, measured growth in labor productivity and total-factor productivity (TFP) slowed. We find little evidence that the slowdown arises from growing mismeasurement of the gains from innovation in IT-related goods and services. First, mismeasurement of IT hardware is significant prior to the slowdown. Because the domestic production of these products has fallen, the quantitative effect on productivity was larger in the 1995-2004 period than since, despite mismeasurement worsening for some types of IT--so our adjustments make the slowdown in labor productivity worse. The effect on TFP is more muted. Second, many of the tremendous consumer benefits from smartphones, Google searches, and Facebook are, conceptually, non-market: Consumers are more productive in using their nonmarket time to produce services they value. These benefits do not mean that market-sector production functions are shifting out more rapidly than measured, even if consumer welfare is rising. Still, gains in non-market production appear too small to compensate for the loss in overall wellbeing from slower market-sector productivity growth. Third, other measurement issues we can quantify (such as increasing globalization and fracking) are also quantitatively small relative to the slowdown. Finally, we suggest high-priority areas for future research.