Non-financial Corporate Sector Research Articles

Growth effects of corporate balance sheet adjustments in the EU

This paper investigates the impact of active balance sheet adjustments in the non-financial corporate sector on economic growth in the EU. We jointly model firms’ ability to reduce their balance sheet imbalances and a growth equation in an instrumental variables (IV) panel context. This enables us to explicitly consider the contemporaneous interaction between corporate balance sheet adjustment and growth, which can otherwise bias inference. Our main findings inter alia suggest that periods of active corporate deleveraging are associated on average with lower output growth compared to periods when no adjustment takes place. Moreover, a decline in corporate debt overhang supports output growth. Model-based simulations are in line with these findings.

The European Bank Recovery and Resolution Directive: A market assessment

This paper provides evidence of the impact of the new European bank resolution regime on the sovereign-bank nexus. The implementation of the Bank Recovery and Resolution Directive (BRRD) is considered as an exogenous shock which provides the setting for a natural experiment. This investigation tests the financial markets’ perception of the effectiveness of the new rules in weakening the tight interconnectedness between sovereign and bank risk. A Difference-in-Differences (DiD) approach is adopted, building evidence from the Credit Default Swap (CDS) market for banks and non-financial corporates over the period 2011-18. The main findings do not indicate a significant weakening in the interaction between bank and sovereign CDS spreads, compared to the corresponding evidence for the non-financial corporate sector. An overall narrowing of the gap between bank and sovereign risk occurs, which initially implies a lack of credibility of the BRRD in financial markets. However, substantial cross-country variations are identified, particularly for Italy and non-euro area countries. These insights make a significant contribution to the policy debate on effective regulation of the sovereign-bank nexus, in the light of recent developments in the EU post-crisis reform agenda.

Vliv zdanění příjmů na zadlužení nefinančních podniků

Theory supposes that corporate income taxation encourages companies to issue debt as opposed to equity finance because interests are deductible while dividends are not. In addition, international differences in tax regimes incentivize multinational firms to shift debt to optimize their taxes. Since a high debt level can have adverse consequences, we decided to find out whether taxation is one of the causes of indebtedness of the non-financial corporate sector. We used a macroeconomic approach, i.e., all the variables were constructed at the country level, and employed data for 17 EU member states for the period 2006–2014. The model for short-term indebtedness suggests that there is a relationship between corporate debt and taxation, especially between the debt-shifting incentive and the thin capitalization rule. However, the model for total indebtedness does not provide any evidence that corporate taxation influences the non-financial corporate sector debt. The firms’ debt was affected rather by macroeconomic factors.

Bank Capital (Requirements) and Credit Supply: Evidence from Pillar 2 Decisions

We analyze how time-varying bank-specific capital requirements affect bank lending to the non-financial corporate sector as well as banks' balance sheet adjustments. To do so, we relate Pillar 2 capital requirements to a comprehensive corporate credit register coupled with bank and firm balance sheet data. Our analysis consists of three components. First, we investigate how capital requirements affect the supply of bank credit to the corporate sector, both on the intensive and extensive margin, as well as for different types of credit. Subsequently, we document how bank and firm characteristics as well as the stance of monetary policy impact the relationship between bank capital requirements and the supply of credit. Finally, we examine how time-varying bank-specific capital requirements affect banks' balance sheet composition.

The Information in Interest Coverage Ratios of the US Nonfinancial Corporate Sector

Using firm-level data, we find significant variability in interest coverage ratios--across firms and economic sectors and across time--that suggests that critical ICR levels depend on firm- or sector-specific economic conditions.

The Turning Tide: How Vulnerable are Asian Corporates?

Using a new firm-level dataset with comprehensive information on Asian firms' FX liabilities, we show that Asia's nonfinancial corporate sector is vulnerable to a tightening of global financial conditions. Higher global interest rates and exchange rate depreciation increase the probability of default of Asian firms. A 30 percent currency depreciation is associated with a two-notch downgrade in the corporate credit rating (e.g., from A to BBB+), resulting in 7 percent of Asian firms falling into bankruptcy. But the impact is nonlinear-as the firms' FX liability increases, the balance sheet channel of exchange rate offsets, then dominates, the competitiveness channel. The balance sheet channel offsets the competitiveness channel when the share of U.S. dollar debt is between 10 and 20 percent. We also find that currency depreciation increases firm-level investment on average, but for firms with the share of FX liabilities above 20 percent, investment contracts with depreciation.

FINANCIAL CONSTRAINTS OF NON-FINANCIAL CORPORATIONS AS A FACTOR OF FINANCIAL STABILITY OF THE BANKING SYSTEM

Introduction. Under the conditions of an active development of financial sector and the demand for expanding its capabilities by business entities there is a need to attract additional capital. It is a reason for finding a certain balance and arrangement of mutually beneficial economic relations. The phenomenon of financial constraints as the company's low ability to attract additional external capital plays a crucial role in modern non-perfect market. The searching for ways of expansion of access to credit by the non-financial corporate sector under the requirement of financial stability support of the banking system is a basis for building sustainable economic ties on the financial market and safe growth of the country's economy without propagating the asymmetric credit cycle. For such a cycle, the stage of recovery of supply and demand in the market is faster and more stable. Purpose. The justification of theoretical basis of the phenomenon of financial constraints and its key channels of interaction with the financial performance of the banking system and its financial stability. Results. The scientific results of work are the detection of the main channels of mutual influence of the financial constraints of non-financial corporations and the financial stability of banks, identification of directions for reducing financial constraints among economic entities in order to expand the possibilities for activating their economic development, that allows to increase the comprehensiveness of decisions on expansion of access to capital of banks and determine their impact on systemic financial risks and financial stability of the banking system in overall.

Determinants of Aggregate Credit Flows to U.S. Corporate and Noncorporate Sector

This article explores the financial accounts of the United States to analyze the synchronicity in bank and nonbank credit flows with the fund flow patterns of U.S. nonfinancial corporate and noncorporate sector. We differ from prior studies and examine the long-term behavior from 1952 to 2015 in relation to peaks and troughs in business cycle, sector-specific factors, and macroeconomic variations. We find that the nonbank credit flows have evolved as a significant source of credit for corporate and noncorporate sector and exhibit higher levels of synchronicity during the period after 1980. The high synchronicity of nonbank credit flows necessitates sufficient resilience in the business cycle upsurge through countercyclical actions, specifically in the noncorporate sector. Multivariate regression results reveal that noncorporate sector relies more on nonbank credit for short-term cash and working capital requirements, whereas corporate sector opts nonbank credit for long-term investments. We also find evidence of relatively higher inter-sectoral impact of business cycle shocks between corporate and noncorporate sector from 1980 to 2015.

The role of intangible assets in explaining the investment–profit puzzle

AbstractStarting around the early 2000s, and especially after the 2008 crisis, the rate of capital accumulation for US nonfinancial corporations has slowed down despite relatively high profitability; indicating a weakening of the link between profitability and investment. While the literature mostly focuses on financialisation and globalisation as the reasons behind this slowdown, I suggest adding another layer to these explanations and argue that, in conjunction with financialisation and globalisation, we need to pay attention to the increased use of intangible assets by nonfinancial corporations in the last two decades. Intangibles such as brand names, trademarks, patents and copyrights play a role in the widening of the profit–investment gap as the use of these assets enables firms to increase market power and profitability without necessarily generating a corresponding increase in fixed capital investment. After discussing the ways nonfinancial corporations use intangible assets, I look at large corporations in the USA and find the following: (i) The ratio of intangible assets to the capital stock increased in general. This increase is highest for firms in high-technology, healthcare, nondurables and telecommunications. (ii) Industries with higher intangible asset ratios have lower investment to profit ratios. (iii) Industries with higher intangible asset ratios have higher markups and profitability. (iv) The composition of the nonfinancial corporate sector has changed and the weight of high-technology and healthcare firms has increased; but this increase did not correspond to an equal increase in their investment share. The decline in the investment share of durables, nondurables and machinery is matched by an increase in the investment share of location-specific industries with low intangible asset use, most notably firms in energy extraction. In general, these firms have steadier markups and higher investment to profit ratios. (v) Yet, intangible-intensive industries’ profitability has increased faster than their share of investment or total assets. All in all, these findings are in line with the suggestion that the increased use of intangible assets enables firms to have high profitability without a corresponding increase in investment.

The corporate saving glut

Since the 2000s, the non-financial corporate sector moved from net borrower to net lender in many advanced economies - what has been labelled the corporate saving glut. Using data on U.S. listed firms, I document that the firms behind this widespread pattern are the largest corporations. The glut is the consequence of a constant profit share, relative to total corporate assets, which is larger than the sum of a decreasing investment share and a small and constant dividend share. In addition, I find no explanation able to empirically account for this pervasive phenomenon: neither deleveraging, nor increased uncertainty, nor increased market power are meaningfully correlated with the emergence of the glut at the firm-level.

Leverage and Capital Structure Determinants of Chinese Listed Companies

Total debt in the People’s Republic of China has increased significantly in recent years, mostly on account of nonfinancial corporate debt. Earning and the financial performance of corporate firms have weakened, and so has the asset quality of the financial sector. This paper assesses the financial fragility of the Chinese economy by looking at risk factors in the nonfinancial sector. We apply quantile regressions to a rich dataset of Chinese listed companies contained in Standard & Poor’s IQ Capital database. We find higher sensitivity over time of corporate leverage to some of its key determinants, particularly for firms at the upper margin of the distribution. In particular, profitability increasingly acts as a curb on corporate leverage. At a time of falling profitability across the Chinese nonfinancial corporate sector, this eases the brake on leverage and may contribute to its continuing increase.

Climate Change, Financial Stability and Monetary Policy

Using a stock-flow-fund ecological macroeconomic model, we analyse (i) the effects of climate change on financial stability and (ii) the financial and global warming implications of a green quantitative easing (QE) programme. Emphasis is placed on the impact of climate change damages on the price of financial assets and the financial position of firms and banks. The model is estimated and calibrated using global data and simulations are conducted for the period 2016–2120. Four key results arise. First, by destroying the capital of firms and reducing their profitability, climate change is likely to gradually deteriorate the liquidity of firms, leading to a higher rate of default that could harm both the financial and the non-financial corporate sector. Second, climate change damages can lead to a portfolio reallocation that can cause a gradual decline in the price of corporate bonds. Third, climate-induced financial instability might adversely affect credit expansion, exacerbating the negative impact of climate change on economic activity. Fourth, the implementation of a green corporate QE programme can reduce climate-induced financial instability and restrict global warming. The effectiveness of this programme depends positively on the responsiveness of green investment to changes in bond yields.

Integration, spurious convergence, and financial fragility: a post-Keynesian interpretation of the Spanish crisis

ABSTRACT The Spanish crisis is generally portrayed as resulting from excessive spending by households associated to a housing bubble and/or an excessive welfare spending beyond the economic possibilities of the country. We put forward a different hypothesis. We argue that the Spanish crisis resulted, in the main, from a widening deficit position in the non-financial corporate sector and a declining trend in profitability under a regime of financial liberalization and loose and unregulated lending practices.

Effectiveness of macroprudential policies in Central and Eastern European countries

This paper extends the available datasets on the use of macroprudential policies in CEE countries, and provides an econometric assessment of the effectiveness of these policies in mitigating financial stability risks associated with excessive credit growth before the global financial crisis. The model results imply that macroprudential policies were more effective in slowing credit to households than credit to the non-financial corporate sector, mainly because the latter had access to nonbank and cross-border credit in addition to domestic bank credit.

Pouring Oil on Fire: Interest Deductibility and Corporate Debt

This paper investigates the role of tax incentives towards debt finance in the buildup of leverage in the nonfinancial corporate (NFC) sector, using a large firm-level dataset. We find that so-called debt bias is a significant driver of leverage, for both small and medium-sized enterprises and larger firms, with its effect accounting for about a quarter of leverage. The strength of this effect differs with firm size, the availability of collateral, income and income volatility, cash flow, and capital intensity. We conclude that leveling the playing field between debt and equity finance through tax policy reform would decrease NFC leverage, reducing economic risks posited by leverage.

Pouring Oil on Fire: Interest Deductibility and Corporate Debt

This paper investigates the role of tax incentives towards debt finance in the buildup of leverage in the nonfinancial corporate (NFC) sector, using a large firm-level dataset. We find that so-called debt bias is a significant driver of leverage, for both small and medium-sized enterprises and larger firms, with its effect accounting for about a quarter of leverage. The strength of this effect differs with firm size, the availability of collateral, income and income volatility, cash flow, and capital intensity. We conclude that leveling the playing field between debt and equity finance through tax policy reform would decrease NFC leverage, reducing economic risks posited by leverage.

Analyzing Credit Risk Transmission to the Non-Financial Sector in Europe: A Network Approach

We use a factor model and elastic net shrinkage to model a high-dimensional network of European CDS spreads. Our empirical approach allows us to assess the joint transmission of bank and sovereign risk to the non-financial corporate sector. Our findings identify a sectoral clustering in the CDS network, where financial institutions are in the center and non-financial entities as well as sovereigns are grouped around the financial center. The network has a geographical component reflected in different patterns of real-sector risk transmission across countries. Our framework also provides dynamic estimates of risk transmission, a useful tool for systemic risk monitoring.

Analyzing Credit Risk Transmission to the Non-Financial Sector in Europe: A Network Approach

A high-dimensional network of European CDS spreads is modeled to assess the transmission of credit risk to the non-financial corporate sector in Europe. We build on a network connectedness approach that uses variance decompositions in vector autoregressions (VARs) to characterize the dependence structure in the panel of CDS spreads. Our main findings suggest a sectoral clustering in the CDS network, where financial institutions are located in the center of the network and non-financial as well as sovereign CDS are grouped around the financial center. The network has a geographical component re flected in differences in the magnitude and direction of real-sector risk transmission across European countries. We identify an increase in the transmission of financial and sovereign credit risk to the non-financial sector during the global financial crisis and the European debt crisis. By contrast, we find that the transmission of risk within the non-financial sector remains largely unaffected by crisis events.

“How relevant is capital structure for aggregate investment? a regime-switching approach”

This paper attempts to show how the cost of capital influences the non-linear interaction between investment and Tobin's q by affecting the probability of regime-switches. Treating the US non-farm, non-financial corporate sector as a representative firm and calculating a cost of capital by weighting the respective costs of equity and debt financing, our estimation results shed light on the periods of low capital expenditure, which are picked up neither by Tobin's q nor by the real interest rate. The findings challenge the concept of the ‘irrelevance of dividends/capital structure’.

Quantitative Easing (QE), Changes in Global Liquidity, and Financial Instability

This article argues that quantitative easing (QE) led to significant changes in the global financial system that are not conducive to greater financial stability. Through a policy of reserve accumulation, QE did not have a direct impact in the creation of global liquidity through bank lending. It rather reinforced the statistical decoupling between base money and the money supply and between deposits and loans. However, QE did have an effect on the composition of global liquidity by altering the relative profitability of investing in different assets and in this way exerted a positive effect on the performance of the international bond market, to which the decline in bank credit due to the deleveraging of global banks in the aftermath of the crisis contributed. The growing role of the international bond market facilitated the expansion of the debt of both the financial sector and the nonfinancial corporate sector in developing economies but also has reinforced the role of the asset management industry in financial markets. Due to its concentration and interconnectedness, illiquidity, and procyclicality, the asset management industry poses important risks to financial stability.