Non-euro Countries Research Articles

The Fisher’s hedge hypothesis: what about homogeneity and stability properties?

The purpose of this study is to see if the Fisher’s hypothesis validation is robust in year or/and countries dimensions. We investigate whether nominal or real stock market returns are hedged against inflation rate, so as to determine the appropriate time and markets to invest in (from the 32 countries) over a period covering the 2008 global finance crisis (GFC) and the Covid 19 outbreak. Hedging property is found to be homogenous within countries and stable in time. Using either nominal or real return, based on cross-sectional data results, Fisher’s hypothesis is generally validated with a few exceptions, while the time-series based results show that the hedge property is robust only in some countries. Using time series data (cross section data), in terms of homogeneity (homogeneity and stability), there is no difference between hedge property between Euro and non-Euro countries (groups of countries or between sub-periods) for both periods covering either 2008 GFC or the Covid 19 outbreak. Robust results are also the outcome of panel data investigations with or without the interest rate role as macro control variable.

Corporate income taxation and external balances in the European Union

This study examines the impact of corporate taxation on the external balances of 27 European Union member countries from the late 1990s to 2021. Using an ARDL process and a 2-stage least squares estimation procedure, we find that, in the short term, higher corporate taxation is positively and significantly related to the current account balance and the trade balance for the whole sample. There are considerable differences in the effects in the euro area and non-euro countries, with the latter experiencing a much stronger short-term impact. In the long term, there are no critical differences in the results between the two groups, and the impact of corporate taxation is positive but statistically significant only for the trade balance. The size of the impact of corporate taxation on net exports and current account balances is of similar magnitude, which likely implies that the international profit shifting via manipulating intrafirm prices in international trade does not strongly affect the external balances in our sample. Our results imply that initiatives to increase global tax rates could be justified from an international trade perspective.

Energy Transition in Non-Euro Countries from Central and Eastern Europe: Evidence from Panel Vector Error Correction Model

The countries of Central and Eastern Europe, from the non-euro area, have completed the process of economic transition before joining the European Union. Achieving a certain level of economic development and membership in the European Union have generated their involvement in a new transition process, namely the energy transition. Concerns about promoting the low carbon economy have become increasingly complex for those countries that are interested in the environmental impact of economic activity. This study aims to analyze the process of energy transition in the countries of Central and Eastern Europe on the basis of the causality relationship among specific variables for the period 1990–2018. The study is based on cross-sectional panel data and the panel vector error correction model (PVECM). The efforts made by these countries by joining the European Union have generated economic development, with positive effects being recorded on the protection of the environment, a fact due to the strict regulations adopted and rigorous implementation at the national level. Foreign capital had a positive impact on the transition to a low carbon economy because most of the FDI flows attracted by the non-euro countries in the CEE come from Western Europe, i.e., from EU member countries, located either among the founders or among the countries that joined during the first waves of union expansion. Membership in the European Union facilitates the energy transition process for the non-euro countries of Central and Eastern Europe, but the new geopolitical events generate the reconfiguration of the European strategy of considering the need to ensure energy security.

Bond markets integration in the EU: New empirical evidence from the Eastern non-euro member-states

The financial integration among the member-states in the long run inside the union constitutes an important task of the EU officials and policy makers. The sovereign-debt crisis of the Eurozone decelerated its economic integration and subsequently increased the unwillingness of the non-euro member-states to join the monetary union. In the light of this background, the research aim of this manuscript is to examine the bond markets integration among the EU CEE non-euro countries and the EA Big-5 economies. The empirical evidence supports that the Eastern member-states’ bond markets integration is heterogeneous and disparate. Lastly, the directional volatility spillovers, unveil that the volatility effects on the EU CEE non-euro bond markets are diversified revealing the leading role of EA core bond markets.

Well-Being Impact on Banking Systems

The present research focuses on the influence of the well-being indicators, more specifically, the indicators reflecting the life quality on the banking systems evolution from the EU member states. The study offers a unique approach to comparing the two country groups: the eurozone countries and the EU noneuro countries during the 2008–2019 period. The model is estimated with the help of the OLS method by using panel data. The study aims to identify which life quality indicators significantly influence the EU member states’ banking systems evolution and develop models dividing the countries into two groups. Our conclusions show that, among all the determinant factors analysed in this study, household consumption and internet users strongly influence all EU countries’ banking systems.

Environmental, social, governance (ESG), and financial performance of European banks

Research Question: How do ESG and financial performance indicators vary according to different classifications of European banks? Motivation: Banks’ ESG performance and its relationship with corporate financial performance represents a field of continuous interest for researchers and practitioners. The results of previous studies are still mixed, either positive, negative, or even neutral. What’s new? The novelty of this paper is represented by the statistical comparison of variables that measure the ESG and financial performance of European banks based on three classifications that we propose (i.e. the geographical regions of Europe, functional currency, and cluster analysis on GDP and population of European countries, respectively). To the best of our knowledge, there are no studies applied to the banking sector, analyzing the selected variables between groups of banks according to the aforementioned classifications. So what? We contribute to the field by extending Thomson Reuters’ grouping of banks (Emerging and Developed Europe) with three more classifications. The comparison of ESG and financial performance data contributes to practice by highlighting which parts of Europe contain the banks with the highest and respectively the lowest values of ESG and financial performance, controversies, and audit fees. Therefore, the results will help investors, policymakers, regulatory bodies, bank managers, and auditors to acknowledge the significant differences within Europe and adopt appropriate measures that could improve the financial and sustainability performance of banks. Data: We collect data from Thomson Reuters Eikon, World Bank statistics, and EuroVoc for 108 European banks (81 from Developed Europe and 27 for Emerging Europe) for 2018, the most recent year on which all information is available. Tools: We conduct a cluster analysis on the macroeconomic variables of the study: the GDP per capita and the population. We used group tests and the ANOVA test as methods in analyzing the results. Findings and Contribution: We contribute with a quantitative study that fills the gap in the literature regarding significant differences that are obtained in ESG and financial performance of banks classified as Developed Europe versus Emerging Europe; Eurozone versus non-Euro countries; Western, CEE, Northern, and Southern banks; small GDP – large population and large GDP – small population clusters. Our methodology will improve future research in adopting better and more transparent classifications of companies analyzed at an international level.

Approaching Monetary Integration in the Context of the Imperative to Ensure the Sustainable Growth in the EU

Sustainable economic growth is an essential objective at the European Union level. The purpose of this paper is to investigate the impact of monetary integration on economic growth, assuming that the introduction of the euro significantly stimulated the process of European financial integration. We used a fixed-effects methodology for panel data for the EU 28 countries for the period 2004–2018. We find that the main factors through which monetary integration contributessignificantly and positively to economic growth areeconomic growth Single Euro Payments Area (SEPA)cards, trade, monetary freedom, convergence of interest rates, convergence of exchange rates and cross-border holdings of short-term debt, with significant differences between Eurozone and non-euro countries, which confirms the hypothesis that the introduction of the euro had a significant impact on economic and financial integration.

Carbon and inflation

This paper investigates whether European Union Allowances (EUAs) can serve as an inflation hedge for two economic areas, four euro countries and two non-euro countries. The Extended Fisher Hypothesis is tested and the evidence shows a strong positive relationship between EUA returns and the unexpected inflation component in all the economic areas or countries analysed, except for the US. Therefore, EUAs are able to provide a hedge against unanticipated inflation rates.

Borrowing Beyond the European Stability Mechanism: Arranging Additional Facilities

Since its arrival in late spring 2018 the Italian Government has presented a series of measures capable of questioning the sustainability of the Italian public debt. The key point is that, in the absence of a steady economic growth, spending measures may involve an increase in interest rates and a downgrade of public debt. In this case, without a significant correction, market access can be lost and debt burden might become unsustainable. In order to avert this scenario, Italy would be obliged to require assistance to the ESM machinery. Nevertheless, such possibility has brought to light that the ESM machinery may be unavailable for some reasons: disagreement on conditionality, unsustainability of debt and insufficiency of resources. Additional resources may come from the OMT programme, but its operation is subject to some constraints, like the market access status of the requesting country. In this context, it is useful to investigate whether and to what extent financial assistance may be sought elsewhere. A first route may be for the Euro countries to establish a borrowing facility within the ESM, but this must take into account the borrowing limits of the ESM. A second route may be for Euro countries to establish a parallel mechanism outside the ESM that may overcome some requirements of the ESM assistance. A third route may be for non-Euro countries to establish a lending facility, provided that conditionality is respected. A fourth route may be for Euro and non-Euro countries alike to establish a facility in the case of withdrawal from the monetary union with the purpose of preserving the stability of the EU.

The Impact of the Euro on Inward FDI in Euro Area

Purpose - The Purpose of this study was to analyze the effects of the introduction of the euro on inward FDI in euro countries. Design/methodology/approach - This study 609 panel data for 18 euro and 11 non-euro countries and 21 years (1996-2016). The Panel regression analysis was hired in order to analyze the data. Findings - First, our results indicate the positive influence of the introduction of euro on inward FDI. The results show that the introduction of euro was statistically significant and had a quite substantial effect on inward FDI in euro countries. We conclude that the euro has a positive impact on the FDI between euro countries as well as on FDI movement from non-euro countries to euro countries. Second, European economic integration has also exerted a positive effect on inward FDI in euro countries. Research implications or Originality - The current findings suggest that trade liberalization-through the Single Market and introduction of euro - induced global firms can result in more investment in EU and euro area countries. It must be noted that the most important determinant of inward FDI in euro countries is market size. The greater the GDP of the receiving country, the larger are the foreign direct investments. .

On the financial market impact of euro area monetary policy: A comparative study before and after the Global Financial Crisis

Using daily data from thirteen euro area and four non-euro countries covering the years 2000 to 2018, we explore whether the Global Financial Crisis 2008–2010 and the introduction of unconventional monetary policy measures has led to a change in the financial market impact of euro area monetary policy. For this purpose, we construct a conservative measure of monetary policy innovations based on the heteroscedasticity-approach of Rigobon and Sack (2004), and investigate the response of national and euro-wide equity indices, derived volatility indices, as well as of government bond yields. We find that financial market participants respond more strongly to monetary policy after the Global Financial Crisis. Moreover, we find that cross-country differences in the responsiveness of government bond yields correlate with average national unemployment rates and with inflation rates, suggesting that monetary policy communication was more effective in countries that had faced a severe economic downturn.

A Tale of Two Surplus Countries: China and Germany

We analyze current account imbalances through the lens of the two largest surplus countries; China and Germany. We observe two striking patterns visible since the 2007/8 Global Financial Crisis. First, while China has been gradually reducing its current account surplus, Germany’s surplus has continued to increase throughout and after the crisis. Second, for these two countries, there is a remarkable reversal in the patterns of exchange rate misalignment: China’s currency has turned from being undervalued to overvalued, Germany’s currency has erased its level of overvaluation and become undervalued. Our empirical analyses show that the current account balances of these two countries are quite well explained by currency misalignment, common economic factors, and country-specific factors. Furthermore, we highlight the global financial crisis effects and, for Germany, the importance of differentiating balances against euro and non-euro countries.

Was Euro the magic wand for economic growth? An analysis of the real benefits of Euro adoption for the New Member States

Abstract At the beginning of the 21st century, the European single currency has been considered a guarantor of prosperity and welfare for the countries that were able to meet the nominal convergence criteria. Starting with Slovenia, a number of five Center and Eastern European Countries joined the Economic and Monetary Union, aiming to achieve the economic prosperity of the Western countries. The concept of economic convergence has been popularized through the economic growth literature during the last century and has become more and more debated with the deepening and expansion of the European Union. The main purpose of this paper has been to evaluate whether there is any hard evidence attesting that Euro adoption accelerated the economic development and created a significant advantage for the New Member States that opted for the single currency, as compared with their peer countries. In this respect, we have studied a panel of New Member States that joined the European Union in 2004 and 2007, comprising both Euro and Non-Euro countries, and we concluded that the single currency do not necessarily guarantee higher growth rates. Moreover, we revealed that the Euro New Member States were more affected by the economic and financial crisis than their Non-Euro peers. We have also shown that there are significant discrepancies between the early adopters of the Euro and the countries that joined the Eurozone after 2004 in terms of convergence and that the differences between the two groups have expanded in the last years. Last and not the least, in order to test our hypotheses, we have compared two sister-countries: Slovakia that joined the Eurozone in 2009 and Czech Republic that has not taken until now the decision to adopt the Euro. In this respect, our results suggest that both countries had good economic performances, and for some periods Czech Republic outperformed Slovakia, mainly in terms of GDP per capita and Foreign Direct Investment. Therefore, we concluded that the single currency has not significantly enhanced the economic performances in the case of the New Member States.

Differences in Total Factor Productivity Growth in the European Union: The role of Human Capital by Income Level

This article applies Oaxaca-Blinder and Shorrocks-Shapley decomposition techniques to a logistic diffusion model in order to explain the differences in Total Factor Productivity Growth (TFPG) in European Union (EU) countries for the period 1950-2011. Human capital has a dual positive effect on TFPG by boosting innovation and increasing the catch-up capacity of countries to absorb and imitate foreign technologies. Our results show that there are statistically significant differences in the intensity of these effects between high and low average income EU countries, while there are not between euro and non-euro countries. The mean difference in technical change between high and low-income EU countries is largely the result of three factors. The first is the higher average foreign technology assimilation capacity of low income countries. This is particularly true because they are further from the technological frontier and are able to benefit from the advantage of backwardness. The second is the higher direct effect of human capital on technical change in these countries, while the third factor is the higher slowdown role of proximity in them.

Business cycle synchronisation and currency unions: A review of the econometric evidence using meta-analysis

This paper offers a systematic evaluation of the evidence on the effects of currency unions on the synchronisation of economic activity. Focusing on Europe, we construct a database of about 3000 business cycles synchronisation coefficients including their design and estimation characteristics. We find that: (1) synchronisation increased from about 0.4 before the introduction of the euro in 1999 to 0.6 afterwards; (2) this increase occurred in both euro and non-euro countries (larger in former); and (3) there is evidence of country-specific publication bias.

What is new about covered interest parity condition in the European Union? Evidence from fractal cross-correlation regressions

We analyse the covered interest parity (CIP) using two novel regression frameworks based on cross-correlation analysis (detrended cross-correlation analysis and detrending moving-average cross-correlation analysis), which allow for studying the relationships at different scales and work well under non-stationarity and heavy tails. CIP is a measure of capital mobility commonly used to analyse financial integration, which remains an interesting feature of study in the context of the European Union. The importance of this features is related to the fact that the adoption of a common currency is associated with some benefits for countries, but also involves some risks such as the loss of economic instruments to face possible asymmetric shocks. While studying the Eurozone members could explain some problems in the common currency, studying the non-Euro countries is important to analyse if they are fit to take the possible benefits. Our results point to the CIP verification mainly in the Central European countries while in the remaining countries, the verification of the parity is only residual.

Choosing the open sea: The cost to the UK of staying out of the euro

In this paper we provide an estimate of the trade flows that there would have been between the UK and its main trading partners if the UK had joined the euro. As an alternative approach to the standard log-linear gravity equation, we employ the synthetic control method. We show that the aggregate trade flows between Britain and eurozone members would have been 16% higher if the UK had adopted the euro. We also provide an estimate of the (hypothetical) euro's effect on trade flows between the UK and non-euro countries. Our results suggest that the adoption of the European currency would also have led to a substantial increase in British trade flows with non-euro members. Finally, we provide a new estimate of the euro's trade impact for euro members. Our results suggest that the adoption of the single currency led to an increase in intra-European trade flows of between 19% and 55%.

Business Cycle Synchronisation in a Currency Union: Taking Stock of the Evidence

This paper offers a first systematic evaluation of the evidence on the effects of currency unions on the synchronisation of economic activity. Focusing on Europe, we construct a database of about 3,000 business cycles synchronisation coefficients and their design and estimation characteristics. We find that: (1) synchronisation increased from about 0.4 before the introduction of the euro in 1999 to 0.6 afterwards; (2) this increase occurred in both euro and non-euro countries (larger in former); (3) there is evidence of country-specific publication bias; (4) our differences-in-differences estimates suggest the euro accounted for approximately half of the observed increase in synchronisation.

(When) should a non-euro country join the banking union?

We analyze the benefits and costs of a non-euro country opting-in to the banking union. The decision to opt-in depends on the comparison between the assessment of the banking union attractiveness and the robustness of a national safety net. The benefits of opting-in are for now only potential and uncertain, while costs are more tangible. Due to treaty constraints, non-euro countries participating in the banking union will not be on equal footing with euro area members. Analysis points out that reducing the weaknesses of the banking union and thus providing incentives for opting-in is not probable in the short term, mainly due to political constraints. Until a fully-fledged banking union with well-capitalized backstops is established it may be optimal for a non-euro country to join the banking union upon the euro adoption. Assessing first experiences with the functioning of the banking union and opt-in countries will be crucial for non-euro countries when deciding whether to opt-in.

The Process towards the Centralisation of the European Financial Supervisory Architecture: The Case of the Banking Union

The evolution of the EU supervisory architecture has demonstrated that it took the risk of a euro break-up to barely overcome the Member States and their supervisors’ political resistances to centralisation. In the two-tier Europe that is emerging after the euro crisis, the integrity of the single market seems today crucially interlinked with the success of the banking union and its attractiveness for non-euro countries. The banking union’s design, without a credible common fiscal backstop, remains however a partial solution to the financial stability issues arising from the fragmentation of the EU financial market in the event of banking crises. Against this background, this work performs an analysis on non-euro countries’ own assessments of the pros and cons of joining the banking union. The analysis aims at showing that until fiscal responsibility for financial stability remains at the national level, regulatory centralisation cannot sever the traditional divide between home and host supervisors. JEL: F35; F65; G01; G28