Non-elective Hospital Research Articles

MO1041: C.E.R.A. (Continuous Erythropoietin Receptor Activator—Methoxy Polyethylene Glycol Epoetin Beta) In Paediatric Dialysis Patients with Anaemia of Chronic Kidney Disease: Real-World Evidence from the IPDN and IPHN Registries

Abstract BACKGROUND AND AIMS Continuous erythropoietin receptor activator—methoxy polyethylene glycol epoetin beta (C.E.R.A.) is a long-acting erythropoiesis-stimulating agent (ESA) approved for the treatment of anaemia associated with chronic kidney disease (CKD) in adults. In June 2018, the Food and Drug Administration approved the use of C.E.R.A. administered intravenously in patients on haemodialysis aged 5–<18 years switching from another ESA. This observational real-world study (MH40258) assessed the safety, dosing and haemoglobin (Hb) levels associated with C.E.R.A. in paediatric patients with CKD on dialysis. METHOD This was a non-interventional real-world study of patients from the International Paediatric Peritoneal Dialysis Network (IPPN) and the International Paediatric Hemodialysis Network (IPHN) registries. Demographics, clinical characteristics, dialysis information, treatment, laboratory parameters, number and causes of hospitalization events and deaths were reported in patients treated with C.E.R.A. from both registries (IPPN: 2007–2021; IPHN: 2013–2021). RESULTS Overall, 229 patients had at least one observation while being treated with C.E.R.A. and were analysed in this study; 177 on peritoneal dialysis (PD) (median age 10.6 years, interquartile range [IQR] 4.2–14.6) and 52 on haemodialysis (HD) (median age 14.1 years, IQR 10.4-16.2). The median observation time under C.E.R.A. exposure was 6 months (IQR 0–12.5) for PD patients and 12 months (0–18) for HD patients. 121 PD patients (68%) and 36 HD patients (69%) had ≥ 1 hospitalization, of whom 102/121 (84%) and 32/36 (89%), respectively, had non-elective hospitalizations. Median hospitalization surveillance time/patient was 13.5 months in the PD and 18.3 months in the HD cohorts. The most frequent causes for non-elective hospitalization were infections, reported as a cause in 56/177 (32%) patients in the PD cohort and 14/52 (27%) in the HD cohort and technique complications, in 41/177 (23%) patients in the PD cohort and 20/52 (38%) in the HD cohort. There were seven deaths (PD: 5 patients; HD: 2 patients), corresponding to an overall mortality rate of 19.8 cases per 1000 observation years. Causes of death were infections (n = 2), intracranial bleeding (n = 2), congestive heart failure (n = 2) and one case of sudden death at home. Hb levels remained stable over time with 47% of PD patients and 48% of HD patients having a Hb value within the range of 10–12 g/dL at their last observation. Mean [standard deviation (SD)] Hb levels at last observation were 10.9 (1.7) g/dL in the PD and 10.4 (1.7) g/dL in the HD cohort. The median monthly dose of C.E.R.A. at first visit was 100 (IQR 50–120) µg in the PD and 107 (80–129) µg in the HD cohort, while at last visit it was 100 (50–150) µg (PD) and 80 (54–129) µg (HD). While absolute C.E.R.A. dose increased with age, weight-related doses decreased substantially with age in both cohorts: in groups aged < 2, 2–<5, 5–<12 and 12–<18 years, respectively, the median monthly dose was 7.9, 5.4, 3.2 and 2.6 µg/kg at first observation and 5.1, 5.2, 3.0 and 3.0 µg/kg at last observation in the PD cohort. The age-related dosing differences were smaller when doses were normalized to body surface area (BSA) rather than body weight, with median doses at last visit of 114, 121, 87 and 98 µg/m2/month, respectively in the PD cohort. In the HD cohort, a similar pattern wasobserved regarding weight and BSA-based dosing, but overall C.E.R.A.dosing was generally lower over the course of the study in HD compared with PD patients. The median monthly C.E.R.A. dose at last observation was 3.5 (IQR 2.3– 5.1) µg/kg, or 95 (62–145) µg/m2 in the PD cohort and 2.1 (1.2–3.4) µg/kg, or 63 (40–98) µg/m2 in the HD cohort (Table). CONCLUSION Real-world data from the IPPN and IPHN registries indicated that C.E.R.A. treatment is associated with efficient maintenance of Hb levels in paediatric patients with CKD on dialysis. C.E.R.A. appeared to have a favourable safety profile; analysis of hospitalization rate and causes as well as patient mortality did not reveal any safety signals.

Can upfront DPYD extended variant testing reduce toxicity and associated hospital costs of fluoropyrimidine chemotherapy? A propensity score matched analysis of 2022 UK patients

AimTo independently assess the impact of mandatory testing using an extended DPYD variant panel (ToxNav®) and consequent dose adjustment of Capecitabine/5-FU on recorded quantitative toxicity, symptoms of depression, and hospital costs.MethodsWe used propensity score matching (PSM) to match 466 patients tested with ToxNav® with 1556 patients from a historical cohort, and performed regression analysis to estimate the impact of ToxNav®on toxicity, depression, and hospital costs.ResultsToxNav® appeared to reduce the likelihood of experiencing moderate (OR: 0.59; 95%CI: 0.45–0.77) and severe anaemia (OR: 0.55; 95%CI: 0.33–0.90), and experience of pain for more than 4 days a week (OR: 0.50; 95%CI: 0.30–0.83), while it increased the likelihood of mild neutropenia (OR: 1.73; 95%CI: 1.27–2.35). It also reduced the cost of chemotherapy by 12% (95%CI: 3–31) or £9765, the cost of non-elective hospitalisation by 23% (95%CI: 8–36) or £2331, and the cost of critical care by 21% (95%CI: 2–36) or £1219 per patient. For the DPYD variant associated with critical risk of toxicity (rs3918290), the improved non-elective hospital costs were > £20,000, whereas variants associated with hand-foot syndrome toxicity had no detectable cost improvement.ConclusionUpfront testing of DPYD variants appears to reduce the toxicity burden of Capecitabine and 5-FU in cancer patients and can lead to substantial hospital cost savings, only if the dose management of the drugs in response to variants detected is standardised and regulated.

Hospitalizations During the COVID-19 Pandemic Among Recently Homeless Individuals: a Retrospective Population-Based Matched Cohort Study.

BackgroundHospitalizations fell precipitously among the general population during the COVID-19 pandemic. It remains unclear whether individuals experiencing homelessness experienced similar reductions.ObjectiveTo examine how overall and cause-specific hospitalizations changed among individuals with a recent history of homelessness (IRHH) and their housed counterparts during the first wave of the COVID-19 pandemic, using corresponding weeks in 2019 as a historical control.DesignPopulation-based cohort study conducted in Ontario, Canada, between September 30, 2018, and September 26, 2020.ParticipantsIn total, 38,617 IRHH, 15,022,368 housed individuals, and 186,858 low-income housed individuals matched on age, sex, rurality, and comorbidity burden.Main MeasuresPrimary outcomes included medical-surgical, non-elective (overall and cause-specific), elective surgical, and psychiatric hospital admissions.Key ResultsAverage rates of medical-surgical (rate ratio: 3.8, 95% CI: 3.7–3.8), non-elective (10.3, 95% CI: 10.1–10.4), and psychiatric admissions (128.1, 95% CI: 126.1–130.1) between January and September 2020 were substantially higher among IRHH compared to housed individuals. During the peak period (March 17 to June 16, 2020), rates of medical-surgical (0.47, 95% CI: 0.47–0.47), non-elective (0.80, 95% CI: 0.79–0.80), and psychiatric admissions (0.86, 95% CI: 0.84–0.88) were significantly lower among housed individuals relative to equivalent weeks in 2019. No significant changes were observed among IRHH. During the re-opening period (June 17–September 26, 2020), rates of non-elective hospitalizations for liver disease (1.41, 95% CI: 1.23–1.69), kidney disease (1.29, 95% CI: 1.14–1.47), and trauma (1.19, 95% CI: 1.07–1.32) increased substantially among IRHH but not housed individuals. Distinct hospitalization patterns were observed among IRHH even in comparison with more medically and socially vulnerable matched housed individuals.ConclusionsPersistence in overall hospital admissions and increases in non-elective hospitalizations for liver disease, kidney disease, and trauma indicate that the COVID-19 pandemic presented unique challenges for recently homeless individuals. Health systems must better address the needs of this population during public health crises.Supplementary InformationThe online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1007/s11606-022-07506-4.

Socioeconomic Inequalities in Elective and Nonelective Hospitalizations in Older Men

Among older adults, there is limited and inconsistent evidence on the association between socioeconomic position (SEP) and elective and nonelective hospitalization. To evaluate the association between SEP and all-cause and cause-specific elective and nonelective hospitalization and hospital length of stay among older men. This population-based, prospective cohort study used data from the Concord Health and Aging in Men Project (CHAMP). CHAMP recruited 1705 men aged 70 years or older between January 28, 2005, and June 4, 2007, in Sydney, Australia. Data were analyzed from February 1 to September 30, 2021. Indicators of SEP, including education (university degree certificate, diploma or no postschool qualifications), occupation (professionals and managers; small employers and self-employed; or lower clerical, service, sales workers, skilled, and unskilled workers), and source of income (other sources of income than government pension, reliance on government pensions and other sources of income, or reliant solely on a government pension), and a cumulative SEP score (tertiles) as SEP indicators; 3-level variables present high, intermediate, and low SEP. All-cause and cause-specific elective and nonelective hospitalizations, number of hospitalizations, and length of stay were the study outcomes, ascertained through data linkage. Associations were quantified using competing-risks survival regression and negative binomial regression. A total of 1566 men (mean [SD] age, 76.8 [5.4] years) were included. During a mean (SD) 9.07 (3.53) years of follow-up, 1067 men had at least 1 elective hospitalization, and 1255 men had at least 1 nonelective hospitalization. No associations were found between SEP and elective hospitalizations. Being in the lowest tertile for educational level (subhazard ratio [SHR], 1.32; 95% CI, 1.11-1.58), occupational position (SHR, 1.30; 95% CI, 1.12-1.50), sources of income (SHR, 1.33; 95% CI, 1.17-1.52), and cumulative SEP tertile groups (SHR, 1.45; 95% CI, 1.24-1.68) were all associated with having at least 1 nonelective hospitalization compared with those in the highest tertiles. Significant associations were found between being in the lowest SEP groups and increased numbers and longer length of stay of nonelective hospitalizations. In this prospective cohort study, low SEP was inversely associated with nonelective hospitalizations but not elective hospitalization in older men in Australia. These findings point to the existence of socioeconomic inequalities in health care use, indicative of a need to take action to reduce these inequalities.

Accuracy of the Simplified HOSPITAL Score to Predict Nonelective Readmission in a Brazilian Tertiary Care Public Teaching Hospital.

Predictive models to identify patients at high risk of readmission have gained the attention of health care teams, which have focused the strategies to reduce unnecessary readmissions on the "at-risk" patients. The HOSPITAL score includes 7 predictor variables with a C-statistic of 0.70 or more when applied to international datasets. Its simplified version retains a C-statistic at around the same level, but only incipient external validation has been attempted to date. The primary objective of this study was to evaluate the prognostic accuracy of the simplified HOSPITAL score to predict nonelective hospital readmissions in a tertiary care public teaching hospital in Brazil. We used a retrospective cohort that included all patients discharged from the internal medicine service of a Brazilian tertiary care public teaching hospital in 2018. We excluded patients who died before index discharge, were transferred to another institution, left against medical advice, or were readmitted electively. We calculated the simplified HOSPITAL score for each admission, and admissions were divided into low (0-4 points) or high risk (≥ 5 points) of nonelective 30-day readmission. We estimated accuracy, area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC), and observed/expected (O/E) readmission ratio; the latter using the mid-P exact test with Miettinen's modification at a 95% confidence interval (CI). A P value < .05 was considered significant. A total of 4472 hospital discharges were analyzed during the study period after application of the exclusion criteria. The nonelective 30-day readmission rate was 14.0% (n = 625). Of all patients discharged, 3173 (71.0%) were considered to be at low risk and 1299 (29.0%) at high risk of readmission according to the simplified HOSPITAL score. The AUC was 0.68 (95% CI: 0.66-0.71; P < .001). The nonelective 30-day readmission rate was 9.2% in the low-risk group (expected: 9.2%; O/E: 1.0 [95% CI: 0.89-1.12]) and 25.7% in the high-risk group (expected: 27.2%; O/E: 0.95 [95% CI: 0.85-1.05]) ( P < .001). At a cut-off of 5 points, the score had a sensitivity of 53.4%, specificity of 74.9%, positive predictive value of 25.7%, and negative predictive value (NPV) of 90.8%. The parameters of the score were almost identical to the original study, with better applicability to exclude low-risk patients given its high NPV. Additional adjustments are still needed for better applicability in daily clinical practice.

Epidemiology, healthcare utilization, and related costs among patients with IPF: results from a German claims database analysis

BackgroundIdiopathic pulmonary fibrosis (IPF) is a progressive form of fibrosing interstitial pneumonia with poor survival. This study provides insight into the epidemiology, cost, and disease course of IPF in Germany.MethodsA cohort of incident patients with IPF (n = 1737) was identified from German claims data (2014–2019). Incidence and prevalence rates were calculated and adjusted for age differences compared with the overall German population. All-cause and IPF-related healthcare resource utilization as well as associated costs were evaluated per observed person-year (PY) following the initial IPF diagnosis. Finally, Kaplan–Meier analyses were performed to assess time from initial diagnosis to disease deterioration (using three proxy measures: non-elective hospitalization, IPF-related hospitalization, long-term oxygen therapy [LTOT]); antifibrotic therapy initiation; and all-cause death.ResultsThe cumulative incidence of IPF was estimated at 10.7 per 100,000 individuals in 2016, 10.9 in 2017, 10.5 in 2018, and 9.6 in 2019. The point prevalence rates per 100,000 individuals for the respective years were 21.7, 23.5, 24.1, and 24.1. On average, ≥ 14 physician visits and nearly two hospitalizations per PY were observed after the initial IPF diagnosis. Of total all-cause direct costs (€15,721/PY), 55.7% (€8754/PY) were due to hospitalizations and 29.1% (€4572/PY) were due to medication. Medication accounted for 49.4% (€1470/PY) and hospitalizations for 34.8% (€1034/PY) of total IPF-related direct costs (€2973/PY). Within 2 years of the initial IPF diagnosis (23.6 months), 25% of patients died. Within 5 years of diagnosis, 53.1% of patients had initiated LTOT; only 11.6% were treated with antifibrotic agents. The median time from the initial diagnosis to the first non-elective hospitalization was 5.5 months.ConclusionThe incidence and prevalence of IPF in Germany are at the higher end of the range reported in the literature. The main driver for all-cause cost was hospitalization. IPF-related costs were mainly driven by medication, with antifibrotic agents accounting for around one-third of the total medication costs even if not frequently prescribed. Most patients with IPF do not receive pharmacological treatment, highlighting the existing unmet medical need for effective and well-tolerated therapies.

The paradox of pulmonary arterial hypertension in Italy in the COVID-19 era: is risk of disease progression around the corner?

ObjectiveThe coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) outbreak has led to significant restrictions on routine medical care. We conducted a multicentre nationwide survey of patients with pulmonary arterial hypertension (PAH) to determine the consequences of governance measures on PAH management and risk of poor outcome in patients with COVID-19.Materials and methodsThe present study, which included 25 Italian centres, considered demographic data, the number of in-person visits, 6-min walk and echocardiographic test results, brain natriuretic peptide/N-terminal pro-brain natriuretic peptide test results, World Health Organization functional class assessment, presence of elective and non-elective hospitalisation, need for treatment escalation/initiation, newly diagnosed PAH, incidence of COVID-19 and mortality rates. Data were collected, double-checked and tracked by institutional records between March 1 and May 1, 2020, to coincide with the first peak of COVID-19 and compared with the same time period in 2019.ResultsAmong 1922 PAH patients, the incidences of severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) infection and COVID-19 were 1.0% and 0.46%, respectively, with the latter comparable to that in the overall Italian population (0.34%) but associated with 100% mortality. Less systematic activities were converted into more effective remote interfacing between clinicians and PAH patients, resulting in lower rates of hospitalisation (1.2% versus 1.9%) and related death (0.3% versus 0.5%) compared with 2019 (p<0.001). A high level of attention is needed to avoid the potential risk of disease progression related to less aggressive escalation of treatment and the reduction in new PAH diagnoses compared with 2019.ConclusionA cohesive partnership between healthcare providers and regional public health officials is needed to prioritise PAH patients for remote monitoring by dedicated tools.

Exercise Blood Pressure in Heart Failure With Preserved and Reduced Ejection Fraction

ObjectivesThis study aimed to evaluate hemodynamic correlates of inducible blood pressure (BP) pulsatility with exercise in heart failure with preserved ejection fraction (HFpEF), to identify relationships to outcomes, and to compare this with heart failure with reduced ejection fraction (HFrEF). BackgroundIn HFpEF, determinants and consequences of exercise BP pulsatility are not well understood. MethodsWe measured exercise BP in 146 patients with HFpEF who underwent invasive cardiopulmonary exercise testing. Pulsatile BP was evaluated as proportionate pulse pressure (PrPP), the ratio of pulse pressure to systolic pressure. We measured pulmonary arterial catheter pressures, Fick cardiac output, respiratory gas exchange, and arterial stiffness. We correlated BP changes to central hemodynamics and cardiovascular outcome (nonelective cardiovascular hospitalization) and compared findings with 57 patients with HFrEF from the same referral population. ResultsIn HFpEF, only age (standardized beta = 0.593; P < 0.001), exercise stroke volume (standardized beta = 0.349; P < 0.001), and baseline arterial stiffness (standardized beta = 0.182; P = 0.02) were significant predictors of peak exercise PrPP in multivariable analysis (R = 0.661). In HFpEF, lower PrPP was associated with lower risk of cardiovascular events, despite adjustment for confounders (HR:0.53 for PrPP below median; 95% CI: 0.28-0.98; P = 0.043). In HFrEF, lower exercise PrPP was not associated with arterial stiffness but was associated with lower peak exercise stroke volume (P = 0.013) and higher risk of adverse cardiovascular outcomes (P = 0.004). ConclusionsIn HFpEF, greater inducible BP pulsatility measured using exercise PrPP reflects greater arterial stiffness and higher risk of adverse cardiovascular outcomes, in contrast to HFrEF where inducible exercise BP pulsatility relates to stroke volume reserve and favorable outcome.

795 A POSITIVE 4AT DELIRIUM ASSESSMENT TOOL SCORE ON HOSPITAL ADMISSION IS LINKED TO MORTALITY, LENGTH OF STAY AND ‘HOME TIME’: A STUDY OF 82,770 HOSPITAL ADMISSIONS IN EDINBURGH AND SALFORD

Abstract Introduction Delirium is linked with poor outcomes but studies using large-scale routine data are scarce. The 4AT (www.the4AT.com) is a brief (~2 minutes), well-validated tool for detection of delirium and cognitive impairment. We performed a two-centre study (Edinburgh and Salford) of Electronic Health Record (EHR) 4AT scores and outcomes in 82,770 non-elective hospital admissions in patients aged ≥65. We determined relationships between 4AT scores 0 (no impairment), 1–3 (cognitive impairment but no delirium) and ≥ 4 (delirium), in relation to 30-day inpatient mortality, length of stay, and time at home (‘home time’) in the year following index admission. Methods We analysed EHR 4AT scores recorded within 24 hours of admission, and outcomes data were also derived from the EHR. The study period was between April 2016 (Edinburgh)/September 2017 (Salford) and April 2020 (both centres). Results 4AT scores suggestive of delirium (≥4) were present in 25% in Salford, and 18% in Edinburgh. After adjustment for age and sex, 30-day inpatient mortality with 4AT ≥4 was 5.5-fold greater than the 4AT 0 group in Edinburgh (aOR 5.53, 95% confidence interval [CI] 4.99–6.13) and 3.4-fold greater in Salford (aOR 3.39, 95% CI 2.98–3.87). Length of stay was more than double in patients with any abnormal 4AT score compared to a 4AT score of 0. The median ‘home time’ at 1 year was reduced by 112 days (Edinburgh) and 61 days (Salford) in the 4AT ≥4 compared to 4AT 0 days. Conclusions This large study using routine clinical data confirms the relationships between delirium and poor outcomes previously reported in smaller research studies. Further, the results demonstrate the feasibility and value of using a brief clinical tool to identify delirium as a strong marker of adverse outcomes, and will be helpful in guiding policy development around patient safety including better treatment of delirium.

A223 THE CHAIR STAND TEST IS A RELIABLE FRAILTY METRIC FOR PREDICTING WAITLIST MORBIDITY AND MORTALITY IN PATIENTS WITH CIRRHOSIS

BackgroundFrailty is defined as a clinical state of increased vulnerability to health and age associated stressors. The liver frailty index (LFI), composed of grip strength, chair stand and balance testing, is an accepted predictor of morbidity and mortality in cirrhosis. With the need for COVID-19 related social distancing, many appointments are being carried out virtually. The chair stand subcomponent of the LFI has the potential to be evaluated virtually, with a high reliability as compared to in-person testing noted in other disease populations.AimsTo determine if the chair stand test is an independent predictor of morbidity and mortality in patients with cirrhosis.Methods822 adult patients with cirrhosis were prospectively enrolled from five centers (3 in Canada, 1 in the United States, and 1 in India). Inclusion criteria included adult patients with cirrhosis. 787 of these patients completed a chair stand test at baseline, measured as the time (seconds) a patient takes to rise from sitting with their arms folded across their chest five times (measured in-person). The times were divided into 3 categories: >15 seconds, between 10 and 15 seconds, and <10 seconds. Patients who could not complete 5 chair stands were classified in the >15 seconds category. Primary outcome was all-cause mortality. Secondary outcome was unplanned all-cause hospital admission. Fine-Gray proportional hazard regression models were used to evaluate the association between the chair stand time and the outcomes. We adjusted for baseline age, sex, and MELD score and accounted for liver transplantation as a competing risk. Cumulative incidence functions were used to create a graphical representation of the survival analysis.ResultsPatients were divided into three groups: group 1, <10 seconds (n = 276); group 2, 10–15 seconds (n = 290); and group 3, >15 seconds (n = 221). Mortality was increased in group 3 in comparison to group 1 (HR 3.21, 95% CI: 2.16–4.78, p<0.001). Similarly, the hazard of non-elective hospitalizations was higher in group 3 in comparison to group 1 (HR 2.24, 95% CI: 1.73–2.91, p<0.001). Overall, patients with chair stand times greater than 15 seconds had increased all-cause mortality (HR 2.78, 95% CI 2.01–3.83, p<0.001) and non-elective hospitalizations (HR 1.84, 95% CI 1.48–2.29, p<0.001) when compared to patients with times less than 15 seconds.ConclusionsA time to complete 5 chair stands of >15 seconds predicts morbidity and mortality in patients with cirrhosis. This test shows promise as a frailty measure that could be evaluated over a virtual platform. Funding AgenciesNone

Association between the combined effect of frailty and the estimated glomerular filtration rate and non-elective hospital readmission in elderly inpatients: a cohort study.

This study aims to explore the combined effect of frailty and the estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR) and non-elective hospital readmission in elderly inpatients. A total of 400 elderly patients were selected. The Fried scale was used to assess frailty. The patients were divided into a non-frailty group and a frailty group. They were divided into a normal eGFR group and a eGFR decreased group. Finally, the patients were divided into the following four groups: Group A (no frailty + eGFR normal); Group B (no frailty + eGFR decreased); Group C (frailty + eGFR normal); and Group D (frailty + eGFR decreased). The results of the follow-up survival analysis showed the non-elective hospital readmission within 6 months of discharge. Group A, Group B, Group C, and Group D had an incidence of 21%, 26%, 24%, and 36%, respectively. The Kaplan-Meier curves showed the event-free survival rates of Group A and Group C were higher than that of Group D, and there was no significant difference between Group B and Group D. The risk of non-elective hospital readmission within 6 months in patients with a decreased eGFR was 1.777 times higher than that in patients with a normal eGFR [95% confidence interval (CI): 1.001-3.154], while the risk of non-elective hospital readmission within 6 months in frail patients and non-frail patients did not differ significantly. The multivariate Cox regression analysis showed that the risk of non-elective hospital readmission in Group D was 2.295 times higher than that in Group A (95% CI: 1.096-4.810), and the difference was statistically significant. The risk of non-elective hospital readmission in Group B was 1.401 times of that in Group A (95% CI: 0.665-2.953), while that in Group C was 91.8% (95% CI: 0.403-2.092), but the differences were not statistically significant. A decline in eGFR is associated with non-elective hospital readmission in elderly inpatients within 6 months; however, frailty is not associated with non-elective hospital readmission. The combined effect of frailty and eGFR in elderly inpatients is related to non-elective hospital readmission.

Hospital readmission within 30 days of older adults hospitalized in a public hospital

Older adults have difficulty monitoring their drug therapy in the first thirty days following hospital discharge. This transition care period may trigger hospital readmissions. The study aims to identify the factors associated with the readmission of older adults 30 days after discharge from the perspective of drug therapy. This is a cross-sectional study and hospital admission within 30 days was defined as readmission to any hospital 30 days after discharge. The complexity of the drug therapy was established by the Medication Regimen Complexity Index (MRCI).. Readmission risks were predicted by the “Readmission Risk Score - RRS”. The multivariate logistic regression was used to identify factors associated with readmission within 30 days after discharge. Two hundred fifty-five older adults were included in the study, of which 32 (12.5%) had non-elective hospital readmission. A higher number of readmissions was observed with increased RRS value, suggesting a linear gradient effect. The variables included in the final logistic regression model were the diagnosis of cancer (OR=2.9, p=0.031), pneumonia (OR=2.3, p=0.055), and High MRCI (> 16.5) following discharge (OR=1.9, p=0.119). The cancer diagnosis is positively associated with hospital readmissions of older adults within 30 days.

Relation of Liver Volume to Adverse Cardiovascular Events in Adolescents and Adults With Fontan Circulation

Elevated central venous pressure in those with Fontan circulation causes liver congestion and hepatomegaly. We assessed if liver volume by magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) is associated with adverse cardiovascular outcomes. Retrospective study of 122 patients with Fontan circulation who were >10 years old and had a liver MRI with magnetic resonance elastography. Liver volume (ml) was measured by manual segmentation from axial T2-weighted images and was indexed to body surface area. The composite outcome included death, heart transplant, ventricular assist device placement, or nonelective cardiovascular hospitalization. The median age at the time of MRI was 18.9 (interquartile range 15.8 to 25.9) years, and 47% of the patients were women. The mean indexed liver volume was 1,133 ± 180 ml/m2. Indexed liver volume was not significantly associated with age, years since Fontan, or with liver stiffness (r=0.15, p=0.10), but was positively correlated with Fontan pressure (r=0.32, p=0.002). Over a median follow-up of 2.1 (0.8 to 4.2) years, 32 patients (26%) experienced the composite outcome. Higher indexed liver volume was associated with a greater hazard for the composite outcome (hazard ratio per 1 SD increase=1.74, 95% confidence interval 1.27 to 2.35, p=0.0004) but increased liver stiffness was not significantly associated with the composite outcome (hazard ratio per 1 SD increase 1.44, 95% confidence interval 0.90 to 2.21, p=0.11). In conclusion, greater liver volume indexed to body surface area is associated with unfavorable hemodynamics and adverse outcomes in patients with Fontan circulation. Liver volume may be a useful, simple imaging biomarker in adolescents and adults with Fontan circulation.

Chameleon project: a children’s end-of-life care quality improvement project

In response to there being no specialist paediatric palliative care (PPC) team in a region of England, we undertook a 12-month quality improvement project (funded by National Health Service England’s...

Expert-based medication reviews to reduce polypharmacy in older patients in primary care: a northern-Italian cluster-randomised controlled trial

BackgroundEvidence regarding clinically relevant effects of interventions aiming at reducing polypharmacy is weak, especially for the primary care setting. This study was initiated with the objective to achieve clinical benefits for older patients (aged 75+) by means of evidence-based reduction of polypharmacy (defined as ≥8 prescribed drugs) and inappropriate prescribing in general practice.MethodsThe cluster-randomised controlled trial involved general practitioners and patients in a northern-Italian region. The intervention consisted of a review of patient’s medication regimens by three experts who gave specific recommendations for drug discontinuation.Main outcome measures were non-elective hospital admissions or death within 24 months (composite primary endpoint). Secondary outcomes were drug numbers, hospital admissions, mortality, falls, fractures, quality of life, affective status, cognitive function.ResultsTwenty-two GPs/307 patients participated in the intervention group, 21 GPs/272 patients in the control group. One hundred twenty-five patients (40.7%) experienced the primary outcome in the intervention group, 87 patients (32.0%) in the control group. The adjusted rates of occurrence of the primary outcome did not differ significantly between the study groups (intention-to-treat analysis: adjusted odds ratio 1.46, 95%CI 0.99–2.18, p = 0.06; per-protocol analysis: adjusted OR 1.33, 95%CI 0.87–2.04, p = 0.2).Hospitalisations as single endpoint occurred more frequently in the intervention group according to the unadjusted analysis (OR 1.61, 95%CI 1.03–2.51, p = 0.04) but not in the adjusted analysis (OR 1.39, 95%CI 0.95–2.03, p = 0.09). Falls occurred less frequently in the intervention group (adjusted OR 0.55, 95%CI 0.31–0.98; p = 0.04). No significant differences were found regarding the other outcomes.Definitive discontinuation was obtained for 67 (16.0%) of 419 drugs rated as inappropriate.About 6% of the prescribed drugs were PIMs.ConclusionsNo conclusive effects were found regarding mortality and non-elective hospitalisations as composite respectively single endpoints. Falls were significantly reduced in the intervention group, although definitive discontinuation was achieved for only one out of six inappropriate drugs. These results indicate that (1) even a modest reduction of inappropriate medications may entail positive clinical effects, and that (2) focusing on evidence-based new drug prescriptions and prevention of polypharmacy may be more effective than deprescribing.Trial registrationCurrent Controlled Trials (ID ISRCTN: 38449870), date: 11/09/2013.

Abstract 13787: Use of a Novel Cardiac Implantable Electronic Device Digital Care Pathway (TriageHF-Plus) is Associated With a Reduction in All-Cause Unplanned Hospitalizations

Introduction: Heart failure hospitalization (HFH) is common, but it is also potentially preventable. The TriageHF risk score is an implantable cardiac device feature that uses data from up to 9 physiological parameters to classify patients as low, medium, or high risk of HFH in the next 30-days. Aim: To evaluate a remote management heart failure (HF) care pathway (“TriageHF-Plus”) that combines the TriageHF risk score with a structured telephone-based remote clinical patient assessment, by comparing rates of non-elective hospitalizations experienced by patients receiving TriageHF-Plus in a real-world clinical setting to those observed in patients receiving Standard of Care (SoC). Methods: Between Sept 2019 - Sept 2020, 415 patients with TriageHF compatible ICD or CRT devices were prospectively recruited from 3 UK hospitals. Once enrolled, all high risk TriageHF episodes were managed via the TriageHF-Plus pathway; these patients received a structured telephone assessment to assess for both HF and non-HF-related acute issues. Rates of non-elective hospitalizations observed following enrollment in the TriageHF-Plus cohort were compared with those observed in an unselected control cohort of HF patients with CIEDs receiving SoC (n=435) between Jan 2017 - Dec 2018. Results: Patient demographics and hospitalization data are presented in the Table. Nearly all patients in the TriageHF-Plus cohort had HF (91.9%) and the majority (77.8%) had a CRT device. In TriageHF-Plus, there were 135 unplanned all-cause hospitalizations, compared with 358 in SoC; and rates per patient year for all-cause (0.41 vs 0.57, p=0.001), cardiovascular (0.14 vs 0.29, p=0.037) and heart failure (0.02 vs 0.07, p=0.003) hospitalizations were all significantly lower in the TriageHF-Plus cohort. Conclusions: In a population of predominantly HF patients with CIEDs, the TriageHF-Plus pathway reduced rates of unplanned hospitalizations compared with SoC, with the greatest reduction observed in HFH.

Comparison of Diversion Strategies for Management of Acute Complicated Diverticulitis in a US Nationwide Cohort

Diverticulitis of the colon is an increasingly prevalent disease with significant implications for patient quality of life and health system resource expenditure. Although several randomized clinical trials and meta-analyses of Hartman procedure (HP) and primary anastomosis and proximal diversion (PAPD) have found surgical equipoise, questions regarding the relative performance of these treatments when applied broadly remain. To examine use of and outcomes after urgent sigmoid colectomy with end colostomy (ie, HP) vs PAPD in management of complicated diverticulitis. This retrospective cross-sectional study was a multicenter, population-based examination of inpatient hospitalizations, not including long-term rehabilitation facilities, using data from the 2014 to 2017 Nationwide Readmissions Database. It was performed from November 2020 to January 2021. Included patients were adults admitted with acute diverticulitis requiring HP or PAPD within 48 hours of admission. Undergoing HP vs PAPD. Inverse probability treatment analysis was used to compare outcomes, including index mortality, composite complications (ie, neurologic, infectious, and cardiovascular complications), length of stay, and readmissions within 90 days. During the study period, an estimated 1 072 395 adults (615 954 [57.4%] women; median [IQR] age, 64 [52-76] years) required nonelective hospitalization for acute colonic diverticulutus. A total of 34 126 patients required diversion, with 32 326 patients (94.7%) undergoing HP and 1800 patients (5.3%) undergoing PAPD within 48 hours of admission. Patients undergoing PAPD had a decreased median (IQR) age (60 [51-70] years vs 65 [54-74] years; P < .001) and decreased rates of end organ dysfunction (520 patients [28.9%] vs 11 514 patients [35.6%]; P < .001). In inverse probability treatment weight analysis, the odds of mortality (adjusted odds ratio [aOR], 0.63; 95% CI, 0.32-1.40), complications (aOR, 0.86; 95% CI, 0.66-1.13), and nonhome discharge (aOR 1.15; 95% CI, 0.83-1.60) were similar for PAPD compared with HP. Among 1772 patients who underwent PAPD and survived index hospitalization, there was an increased incidence of 90-day readmission compared with 30 851 patients who underwent HP and survived index hospitalization (393 patients [22.2%] vs 4384 patients [14.2%]; P < .001) with increased hazard of ostomy reversal (hazard ratio, 1.46; 95% CI, 1.08-1.99). This study found that the use of PAPD was associated with comparable index hospitalization outcomes vs use of HP, while readmission rate and ostomy risk were statistically significantly increased among patients who underwent PAPD compared with patients who underwent HP. These findings suggest that further delineation of criteria for appropriate application of PAPD in the urgent setting are warranted.

Clinical and Economic Outcomes Associated with Dysphagia in Hospitalized Patients with Parkinson’s Disease

Dysphagia is a frequent complication that may increase morbidity and mortality in Parkinson's disease (PD). Nevertheless, there is limited data on its objective impact on healthcare outcomes. To investigate the outcomes associated with dysphagia in hospitalized patients with PD and associated healthcare costs and utilization. We performed a retrospective cohort study using the National Inpatient Sample (NIS) data from 2004 to 2014. A multivariable regression analysis was adjusted for demographic, and comorbidity variables to examine the association between dysphagia and associated outcomes. Logistic and negative binomial regressions were used to estimate odds or incidence rate ratios for binary and continuous outcomes, respectively. We identified 334,395 non-elective hospitalizations of individuals with PD, being 21,288 (6.36%) associated with dysphagia. Patients with dysphagia had significantly higher odds of negative outcomes, including aspiration pneumonia (AOR 7.55, 95%CI 7.29-7.82), sepsis (AOR 1.91, 95%CI 1.82-2.01), and mechanical ventilation (AOR 2.00, 95%CI 1.86-2.15). For hospitalizations with a dysphagia code, the length of stay was 44%(95%CI 1.43-1.45) longer and inpatient costs 46%higher (95%CI 1.44-1.47) compared to those without dysphagia. Mortality was also substantially increased in individuals with PD and dysphagia (AOR 1.37, 95%CI 1.29-1.46). In hospitalized patients with PD, dysphagia was a strong predictor of adverse clinical outcomes, and associated with substantially prolonged length of stay, higher mortality, and care costs. These results highlight the need for interventions focused on early recognition and prevention of dysphagia to avoid complications and lower costs in PD patients.

Prediction of major adverse cardiovascular events in patients with hypertrophic cardiomyopathy using proteomics profiling

Abstract Background Hypertrophic cardiomyopathy (HCM) is one of the most common genetic cardiac diseases, affecting 1 in 200–500 people in the US. HCM often causes major adverse cardiovascular events (MACE) – e.g., arrhythmias (atrial fibrillation, ventricular tachycardia/fibrillation), cerebrovascular accident, heart failure (HF), and sudden cardiac death (SCD). Although these HCM-related morbidities and mortality substantially affect the patients' quality and quantity of life, no systems are available to predict MACE. Furthermore, it remains unclear which signaling pathways mediate MACE. Purpose To prospectively determine protein biomarkers that predict MACE in patients with HCM and to identify signaling pathways differentially regulated in patients with HCM who subsequently develop MACE. Methods In this multi-center prospective cohort study of patients with HCM, we carried out plasma proteomics profiling of 4,979 proteins upon enrollment. We defined MACE as a composite of new-onset arrhythmias, cerebrovascular accident, increase in New York Heart Association class, HF death, SCD, and emergency department visit or non-elective hospitalization for HCM-related morbidities. We performed a sparse partial least squares discriminant analysis to develop a proteomics-based model to predict MACE using data from one institution (i.e., the training set). We tested the predictive ability in independent samples from the other institution (i.e., the test set) and performed time-to-event analysis. Additionally, we executed pathway analysis of the predictive proteins. A pathway was declared positive (i.e., dysregulated) if the false discovery rate (FDR) of the pathway was &amp;lt;0.01 and there were ≥5 proteins that map to the pathway. Results The study included 257 patients with HCM (n=186 in the training set; n=71 in the test set). The median follow-up duration was 2.5 years (interquartile range, 1.4–3.1 years). Each year, 11.7% of patients had MACE. Using the proteomics-based prediction model derived from the training set, the area under the receiver-operating-characteristic curve was 0.84 (95% confidence interval [CI] 0.72–0.96) in the test set (Figure 1). The sensitivity was 0.82 (95% CI, 0.72–0.91) and the specificity was 0.84 (95% CI, 0.79–0.89) in the test set. In the test set, high-risk group determined by the proteomics-based predictive model had significantly higher rate of developing MACE (hazard ratio 20.2; 95% CI 2.4–168; p=0.005; Figure 2). The Ras-MAPK and related pathways were upregulated in patients who subsequently developed MACE (FDR&amp;lt;0.001). Pathways involved in inflammation and fibrosis – e.g., the TGF-β pathway – were also upregulated. Conclusions This multi-center prospective cohort study with validation serves as the first to demonstrate the ability of proteomics profiling to predict MACE in HCM, exhibiting both novel (e.g., Ras-MAPK) and known (e.g., TGF-β) pathways that are differentially regulated in patients who subsequently experience MACE. Funding Acknowledgement Type of funding sources: Public grant(s) – National budget only. Main funding source(s): National Institute of Health, American Heart Association Figure 1Figure 2

Forecasting the Requirement for Nonelective Hospital Beds in the National Health Service of the United Kingdom: Model Development Study.

BackgroundOver the last decade, increasing numbers of emergency department attendances and an even greater increase in emergency admissions have placed severe strain on the bed capacity of the National Health Service (NHS) of the United Kingdom. The result has been overcrowded emergency departments with patients experiencing long wait times for admission to an appropriate hospital bed. Nevertheless, scheduling issues can still result in significant underutilization of bed capacity. Bed occupancy rates may not correlate well with bed availability. More accurate and reliable long-term prediction of bed requirements will help anticipate the future needs of a hospital’s catchment population, thus resulting in greater efficiencies and better patient care.ObjectiveThis study aimed to evaluate widely used automated time-series forecasting techniques to predict short-term daily nonelective bed occupancy at all trusts in the NHS. These techniques were used to develop a simple yet accurate national health system–level forecasting framework that can be utilized at a low cost and by health care administrators who do not have statistical modeling expertise.MethodsBed occupancy models that accounted for patterns in occupancy were created for each trust in the NHS. Daily nonelective midnight trust occupancy data from April 2011 to March 2017 for 121 NHS trusts were utilized to generate these models. Forecasts were generated using the three most widely used automated forecasting techniques: exponential smoothing; Seasonal Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average; and Trigonometric, Box-Cox transform, autoregressive moving average errors, and Trend and Seasonal components. The NHS Modernisation Agency’s recommended forecasting method prior to 2020 was also replicated.ResultsThe accuracy of the models varied on the basis of the season during which occupancy was forecasted. For the summer season, percent root-mean-square error values for each model remained relatively stable across the 6 forecasted weeks. However, only the trend and seasonal components model (median error=2.45% for 6 weeks) outperformed the NHS Modernisation Agency’s recommended method (median error=2.63% for 6 weeks). In contrast, during the winter season, the percent root-mean-square error values increased as we forecasted further into the future. Exponential smoothing generated the most accurate forecasts (median error=4.91% over 4 weeks), but all models outperformed the NHS Modernisation Agency’s recommended method prior to 2020 (median error=8.5% over 4 weeks).ConclusionsIt is possible to create automated models, similar to those recently published by the NHS, which can be used at a hospital level for a large national health care system to predict nonelective bed admissions and thus schedule elective procedures.