Non-climatic Drivers Research Articles

Forecasting malaria dynamics based on causal relations between control interventions, climatic factors, and disease incidence in western Kenya.

Malaria remains one of the deadliest diseases worldwide, especially among young children in sub-Saharan Africa. Predictive models are necessary for effective planning and resource allocation; however, statistical models suffer from association pitfalls. In this study, we used empirical dynamic modelling (EDM) to investigate causal links between climatic factors and intervention coverage with malaria for short-term forecasting. Based on data spanning the period from 2008 to 2022, we used convergent cross-mapping (CCM) to identify suitable lags for climatic drivers and investigate their effects, interaction strength, and suitability ranges on malaria incidence. Monthly malaria cases were collected at St. Elizabeth Lwak Mission Hospital. Intervention coverage and population movement data were obtained from household surveys in Asembo, western Kenya. Daytime land surface temperature (LSTD), rainfall, relative humidity (RH), wind speed, solar radiation, crop cover, and surface water coverage were extracted from remote sensing sources. Short-term forecasting of malaria incidence was performed using state-space reconstruction. We observed causal links between climatic drivers, bed net use, and malaria incidence. LSTD lagged over the previous month; rainfall and RH lagged over the previous two months; and wind speed in the current month had the highest predictive skills. Increases in LSTD, wind speed, and bed net use negatively affected incidence, while increases in rainfall and humidity had positive effects. Interaction strengths were more pronounced at temperature, rainfall, RH, wind speed, and bed net coverage ranges of 30-35°C, 30-120 mm, 67-80%, 0.5-0.7 m/s, and above 90%, respectively. Temperature and rainfall exceeding 35°C and 180 mm, respectively, had a greater negative effect. We also observed good short-term predictive performance using the multivariable forecasting model (Pearson correlation coefficient = 0.85, root mean square error = 0.15). Our findings demonstrate the utility of CCM in establishing causal linkages between malaria incidence and both climatic and non-climatic drivers. By identifying these causal links and suitability ranges, we provide valuable information for modelling the impact of future climate scenarios.

Perspectives of integrated climate change and water policies in Hungary

The paper aims to outline the climate impacts induced and transferred by water and the socio-economic factors that exacerbate them. It also seeks to provide a common and integrated policy framework for climate change adaptation and water management. The climatic and non-climate drivers, the risk chains and options for policy integration are assessed in four complex thematic areas: (i) ecosystem services, (ii) food supply chain: agriculture, food processing industry, food safety; (iii) industrial and service activities, energy and water supply, infrastructure, built environment, and (iv) human health and well-being, social justice. In these complex thematic areas, we examine the risk cascade chain, the current state of impacts and expected future challenges within a coherent framework and then make concrete proposals for possible specific areas of policy integration. Finally, in the conclusions, we present municipal-level good practices in water-resilient climate adaptation and formulate the horizontal actions needed to implement integrated climate-water policy.

Trends in extreme rainfall and their relationship to flooding episodes in Vhembe district, South Africa

Extreme weather events, such as heavy rainfall, are being increased by climate change in various regions, and such events often cause floods. This study examined the trends and variability of extreme rainfall indices using daily rainfall data (1981–2023) from three study sites at different socio-economic development spectra in Vhembe District, Limpopo Province, South Africa. The analyses focus on indices such as the annual total rainfall from wet days (PRCPTOT), the maximum number of consecutive dry days (CDD) and wet days (CWD), annual maximum 1-day and 5-day rainfall (RX1 day and RX5 day), the Simple Daily Intensity Index (SDII), the number of days exceeding varying amounts of precipitation (R10, R20, R40) and the annual number of wet days with rainfall greater than the 95th and 99th percentile (R95p and R99p) of the 1981–2023 daily rainfall. We discuss the observed trends in extreme rainfall indices in light of the actual flood occurrences to establish linkages. Several statistically significant and marginal changes in extreme rainfall trends were identified and provided key insights into reported flooding events in the district—flooding episodes were mainly attributed to the significant increases in total precipitation (PRCPTOT) and rainfall exceeding the 99th percentile of daily rainfall (R99p). Other significant contributors were declining CDD and increasing RX1day at Duthuni, increasing R40 at Musina as well as increasing R1 and declining CDD at Sane. However, the low altitude, urbanization, poor waste management and inadequate drainage systems were among the key non-climatic drivers of flood risk across the study sites, but these warrant further investigation. The complex interplay between climatic and non-climatic drivers of flood risk underscores the importance of localized climate studies and the need for adaptive strategies to minimize loss and damage. Overall, this research provides valuable insights into localized extreme rainfall trends, which are essential for developing site-specific flood mitigation and adaptation strategies. However, such initiatives require placing vulnerable communities at the centre in order to develop solutions that are locally led and relevant.

Hydropower capacity factors trending down in the United States

The United States hydropower fleet has faced increasing environmental and regulatory pressures over the last half century, potentially constraining total generation. Here we show that annual capacity factor has declined at four fifths of United States hydropower plants since 1980, with two thirds of decreasing trends significant at p < 0.05. Results are based on an analysis of annual energy generation totals and nameplate capacities for 610 plants (>5 megawatt), representing 87% of total conventional hydropower capacity in the United States. On aggregate, changes in capacity factor imply a fleetwide, cumulative generation decrease of 23% since 1980 before factoring in capacity upgrades—akin to retiring a Hoover Dam once every two to three years. Changes in water availability explain energy decline in only 21% of plants, highlighting the importance of non-climatic drivers of generation, including deterioration of plant equipment as well as changes to dam operations in support of nonpower objectives.

Dust and climate interactions in the Middle East: Spatio-temporal analysis of aerosol optical depth and climatic variables

The Middle East (ME) is grappling with an alarming increase in dust levels, measured as aerosol optical depth (AOD), which poses significant threats to air quality, human health, and ecological stability. This study aimed to investigate correlations between climate and non-climate driving factors and AOD in the ME over the last four-decade (1980–2020), based on analysis of three variables: actual evapotranspiration (AET), potential evapotranspiration (PET), and precipitation (P). A comprehensive analysis is conducted to discern patterns and trends, with a particular focus on regions such as Rub al-Khali, Ad-Dahna, An-Nafud Desert, and southern Iraq, where consistently high dust levels were observed. 77 % of the study area is classified as arid or semi-arid based on the aridity index. Our results indicate an upward trend in dust levels in Iraq, Iran, Yemen, and Saudi Arabia. We noted an increasing AET trend in regions such as the Euphrates and Tigris basin, northern-Iran, and the Nile region, along with rising PET levels in arid and semi-arid zones such as Iran, Iraq, and Syria. Conversely, P showed a notable decrease in northern-Iraq, Syria, southwestern Iran, and southern-Turkey. Comparison of long-term changes (10-year moving averages) of AOD and P showed a consistent increase in AOD with P levels decreasing in all climate regions. The Budyko space analysis indicates shifts in evaporation ratio across different climate classes from 1980 to 2020, with predominant movement patterns towards higher aridity indices in arid and semi-arid regions, while factors beyond long-term aridity changes influence shifts in evaporation ratio across various climatic zones. The Middle East experiences complex and intricate interactions between dust events and their drivers. To address this issue, a comprehensive and multi-system approach is necessary, which considers both climate and non-climate drivers. Moreover, an efficient dust control strategy should include soil and water conservation, advanced monitoring, and public awareness campaigns that involve regional and international collaboration.

Glacier mass balance and its climatic and nonclimatic drivers in the Ladakh region during 2000–2021 from remote sensing data

Abstract This study investigates the geodetic mass balance of nearly all glaciers in the Ladakh region, which are crucial for local water security. Utilizing multiple digital elevation models from 2000 and 2021, we estimate glacier mass balances. Climatic drivers of glacier mass balances are explored using ERA5-Land reanalysis data, evaluated by in situ climate data. The study also examines the role of nonclimatic (morphological) variables on glacier mass balances. Results indicate Ladakh glaciers experienced negative mass balances during 2000–2021, with significant spatial variability. Western Ladakh glaciers lost slightly higher mass (−0.35 ± 0.07 to −0.37 ± 0.07 m w.e. a−1) than eastern Ladakh glaciers (−0.21 ± 0.07 to −0.33 ± 0.05 m w.e. a−1). While warming is the main driver of widespread mass loss in Ladakh, the spatial variability in mass loss is attributed to changes in regional precipitation and glacier morphological settings. Eastern Ladakh glaciers, being smaller and at higher elevations, experience lower mass loss, whereas western Ladakh glaciers, larger and at lower elevations, are more susceptible to the impact of temperature, resulting in higher mass loss. The study underscores the potentially greater vulnerability of western Ladakh glaciers to a warming climate compared to their eastern counterparts.

To what extent can we predict variation of bryophyte and tracheophyte community composition at fine spatial scale along an elevation gradient?

Mounting evidence points to the need for high-resolution climatic data in biodiversity analyses under global change. As we move to finer resolution, other factors than climate, including other abiotic variables and biotic interactions play, however, an increasing role, raising the question of our ability to predict community composition at fine scales. Focusing on two lineages of land plants, bryophytes and tracheophytes, we determine the relative contribution of climatic, non-climatic environmental drivers, spatial effects, community architecture and composition of one lineage to predict community composition of the other lineage, and how our ability to predict community composition varies along an elevation gradient. The relationship between community composition of one lineage and 68 environmental variables at 2-25 m spatial resolution, architecture and composition of the other lineage, and spatial factors, was investigated by hierarchical and variance partitioning across 413 2x2m plots in the Swiss Alps. Climatic data, although significant, contributed less to the model than any other variable considered. Community composition of one lineage, reflecting both direct interactions and unmeasured (hidden) abiotic factors, was the best predictor of community composition of the other lineage. Total explained variance substantially varied with elevation, underlining the fact that the strength of the species composition-environment relationship varies depending on environmental conditions. Total variance explained increased towards high elevation up to 50 %, with an increasing importance of spatial effects and vegetation architecture, pointing to increasing positive interactions and aggregated species distribution patterns in alpine environments. In tracheophytes, an increase of the contribution of non-climatic environmental factors was also observed at high elevation, in line with the hypothesis of a stronger environmental control under harsher conditions. Further improvements of our ability to predict changes in plant community composition may involve the implementation of historical variables and higher-resolution climatic data to better describe the microhabitat conditions actually experienced by organisms.

Harmful algal bloom aerosols and human health.

Harmful algal blooms (HABs) are increasing across many locations globally. Toxins from HABs can be incorporated into aerosols and transported inland, where subsequent exposure and inhalation can induce adverse health effects. However, the relationship between HAB aerosols and health outcomes remains unclear despite the potential for population-level exposures. In this review, we synthesized the current state of knowledge and identified evidence gaps in the relationship between HAB aerosols and human health. Aerosols from Karenia brevis, Ostreopsis sp., and cyanobacteria were linked with respiratory outcomes. However, most works did not directly measure aerosol or toxin concentrations and instead relied on proxy metrics of exposure, such as cell concentrations in nearby waterbodies. Furthermore, the number of studies with epidemiological designs was limited. Significant uncertainties remain regarding the health effects of other HAB species; threshold dose and the dose-response relationship; effects of concurrent exposures to mixtures of toxins and other aerosol sources, such as microplastics and metals; the impact of long-term exposures; and disparities in exposures and associated health effects across potentially vulnerable subpopulations. Additional studies employing multifaceted exposure assessment methods and leveraging large health databases could address such gaps and improve our understanding of the public health burden of HABs.

Climate Change and Marine Fisheries: Stakeholders' Perspective from Coastal District of Odisha, India

The marine fisheries sector is severely affected by the impact of climate change. The small-scale fishing communities, their livelihoods and the infrastructure are more vulnerable to the effects of climate change, but it has been occasionally investigated at the regional level. Climate change literature and various reports from government and international agencies indicate that Coastal Odisha is one of the hotspot regions for extreme weather and slow-onset events. In this context, the paper attempts to study how climate change affects small-scale marine fishers through a case of the Kendrapara district of Odisha. The paper attempts to understand the overall fish production scenario. It captures the perceptions of small-scale marine fishers regarding different climate and non-climate drivers through focus group discussions and key informant interviews. The findings from the paper reflect that marine fishers recognize the impact of climate change on the sector in terms of dwindling fish catch, reduction in the number of fishing days, longer fishing trips and damage to boats and nets. The small-scale marine fishers also believe that the impact of climate change in future will be so severe that the sea might engulf their land and settlements.

Climatic and Non-Climatic Drivers of Plant Diversity along an Altitudinal Gradient in the Taihang Mountains of Northern China

Climate is critical for plant altitudinal distribution patterns. Non-climatic factors also have important effects on vegetation altitudinal distribution in mountain regions. The purpose of this study was to explore the current distribution of plant diversity along the altitudinal gradient in the Taihang Mountain range of northern China and to estimate the effects of climatic and non-climatic factors on the elevational pattern. Through a field survey, a total of 480 sampling plots were established in the central Taihang Mountain range. Alpha diversities (the Shannon–Weiner index and Simpson index) and beta diversities (the Jaccard index and Cody index) were measured based on the survey data. Plant community structure change based on the altitudinal gradient was explored by measuring the diversity indices. Canonical correspondence analysis was carried out to determine the factors influencing plant altitudinal distribution. The contributions of climatic and non-climatic factors on plant distribution were determined by partial methods. The results showed that the plant diversity of the elevational gradient complied with a “hump-shaped” pattern, in which communities in the medium altitude area with higher plant diversity had a higher species turnover rate, and non-climatic factors, particularly the anthropogenic factors, had an important influence on the plant altitudinal pattern. In conclusion, climatic and non-climatic factors both had important effects on the plant altitudinal pattern. It is strongly recommended to reduce human interference in mountain vegetation protection and management.

Trends in Temperature-associated Mortality in São Paulo (Brazil) between 2000 and 2018: an Example of Disparities in Adaptation to Cold and Heat

Exposure to non-optimal temperatures remains the single most deathful direct climate change impact to health. The risk varies based on the adaptation capacity of the exposed population which can be driven by climatic and/or non-climatic factors subject to fluctuations over time. We investigated temporal changes in the exposure–response relationship between daily mean temperature and mortality by cause of death, sex, age, and ethnicity in the megacity of São Paulo, Brazil (2000–2018). We fitted a quasi-Poisson regression model with time-varying distributed-lag non-linear model (tv-DLNM) to obtain annual estimates. We used two indicators of adaptation: trends in the annual minimum mortality temperature (MMT), i.e., temperature at which the mortality rate is the lowest, and in the cumulative relative risk (cRR) associated with extreme cold and heat. Finally, we evaluated their association with annual mean temperature and annual extreme cold and heat, respectively to assess the role of climatic and non-climatic drivers. In total, we investigated 4,471,000 deaths from non-external causes. We found significant temporal trends for both the MMT and cRR indicators. The former was decoupled from changes in AMT, whereas the latter showed some degree of alignment with extreme heat and cold, suggesting the role of both climatic and non-climatic adaptation drivers. Finally, changes in MMT and cRR varied substantially by sex, age, and ethnicity, exposing disparities in the adaptation capacity of these population groups. Our findings support the need for group-specific interventions and regular monitoring of the health risk to non-optimal temperatures to inform urban public health policies.

Changes in coastal farming systems in a changing climate in Bangladesh

Changes in farming systems are dominated by changes in global climate and local environment, apart from the non-climatic drivers. Given the challenges in partitioning the contribution of climatic and non-climatic factors to the changes in farming systems, this paper aims to assess the types and changes of coastal farming systems, the farmer perceptions of the causes of the changes in farming systems, and the relationship between the influencing factors and perceptions. A structured interview schedule was used to collect data from 381 randomly selected coastal households during September–October 2018. The random forest classification model was applied to estimate the relative importance of the farmers’ characteristics on their perception of causes of changes in farming systems. This study reveals that the coastal farmers had mostly semi-subsistence type of mixed farming systems, which were going through dynamic changes in terms of their sizes and number of farmers. In general, the participation in rice, vegetables, and livestock farming was decreasing but increasing in fisheries, forestry, and fruit farming. Most (95.5%) of the farmers had to change at least one of the farming enterprises over the past decade (2009–2018) compared with the previous decade (1999–2008). About two-thirds of the farmers perceived that climate change had caused changes in their farming systems. Compared with the eastern coasts, the farmers in the western coasts tended to blame climate change to a higher extent for the effect on their agricultural activities. The random forest model outputs imply that the farmers who are younger in age and with less formal education, larger family, and smaller farmland should be supported with scientific knowledge on causes of changes in farming systems. This could help them more aware of climate change issues related to agriculture and increase their enthusiasm to take part in adaptive changes in farming systems.

Post-displacement status of climate migrants in Rajshahi City, Bangladesh

Some big cities in Bangladesh have been experiencing a massive and rapid influx of rural people due to the impacts of climate change, and therefore the urban administration encounters enormous challenges. This study aims to investigate the drivers of climate-induced migration and the post-displacement status of the migrants living in the urban slum of Rajshahi City. Using a semi-structured questionnaire survey, this study conducted interviews with 50 migrants residing in two slums in Rajshahi City. An interpretive phenomenological analysis (IPA) approach was implemented to evaluate the survey data. This study finds that food insecurity and flood are the two significant climate drivers of migration. Among the non-climate drivers, lack of alternative livelihood is the major reason. It should be noticed that the climate migrants in many cases do not get the opportunity to improve their living standards; they are usually occupied with low-pay professions like maid, van and rickshaw puller, and scrap collector. The study also reveals that migrants, especially females and children, need several basic physiological, economic, social, and health services. Most children have no chance to attend school. Compared to males, females have more opportunities for some support and allowances. Overall, an inadequate level of change has taken place in the lives of migrants, which raises the concern if migration is ever a way to resolve a problem or the beginning of many other problems. Further researches may concentrate on the impact of migration on the dynamics of social capital among slum dwellers.

Beyond the SDG 15.3.1 Good Practice Guidance 1.0 using the Google Earth Engine platform: developing a self-adjusting algorithm to detect significant changes in water use efficiency and net primary production

ABSTRACT Monitoring changes in Annual Net Primary Productivity (ANPP) is required for reporting on UN Sustainable Development Goal (SDG) Indicator 15.3.1: the proportion of land that is degraded over the total land area. Calibrating time-series observations of ANPP to derive Water Use Efficiency (WUE; a measure of ANPP per unit of evapotranspiration) can minimize the influence of climate factors on ANPP observations and highlight the influence of non-climatic drivers of degradation such as land use changes. Comparing the ANPP and WUE time series may be useful for identifying the primary drivers of land degradation, which could be used to support the Land Degradation Neutrality objectives of the UN Convention to Combat Desertification (UNCCD). This paper presents an algorithm for the Google Earth Engine (freely and openly available upon request – http://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.4429773) to calculate and compare ANPP and WUE time series for Santa Cruz, Bolivia, which has recently experienced an intensification in its land use. This code builds on the Good Practice Guidance document (version 1) for monitoring SDG Indicator 15.3.1. We use the MODIS 16-day average, 250 m resolution to demonstrate that the Enhanced Vegetation Index (EVI) responds faster to changes in water availability than the Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI). We also consider the relationships between ANPP and WUE. Significant and concordant trends may highlight good agricultural practices or increased resilience in ecosystem structure and productivity when they are positive or reducing resilience and functional integrity if negative. The sign and significance of the correlation between ANPP and WUE may also diverge over time. With further analysis, it may be possible to interpret this relationship in terms of the drivers of change in plant productivity and ecosystem resilience.

Distinction of driver contributions to wetland decline and their associated basin hydrology around Iran

Study regionSix wetland sites around Iran (Gavkhoni and Hur al-Azim wetlands, Gorgan Bay, and Namak, Urmia, and Maharloo & Bakhtegan lakes) and their associated hydrological basins. Study focusThe aim was to distinguish the contributions of climatic and non-climatic changes (including land-use/land-cover, LULC) to areal decline in six Iranian wetlands. This was done using data-driven quantification methodology that combined comparative change correlation and Budyko-based analyses of evapotranspiration (ETb), and runoff (Rb) changes in the hydrological basin of each wetland, extended to consider explicitly climate-driven change in evaporation rate (Ew) from the wetland area and the shift from previous Ew to ETb caused by the wetland decline itself. New hydrological insights for the regionComparative correlation analysis revealed an overall stronger correlation of wetland decline with LULC changes (mainly cropland, urban land) than with changes in temperature (T) or precipitation (P) across all wetland sites. The extended Budyko-based analysis revealed that the predominant cause of wetland decline across all sites was increased ETb, with related decrease in Rb from basin to wetland, whereas changes in Ew and in wetland decline shifting Ew to ETb had only a weak influence. In line with the correlation analysis results, non-climatic drivers were revealed as causing ETb increases and Rb decreases, leading to wetland decline to a greater degree than climate change (T, P).

Cordilleran Ice Sheet Stability During the Last Deglaciation

AbstractWe report 20 10Be exposure ages from glacial erratics and bedrock on the west coast of British Columbia, Canada, which add to existing chronologies of Cordilleran Ice Sheet retreat along ∼600 km of coastal North America. Collectively, these data show the western ice limit reached the present coast by 18–16 ka then retreat slowed for ∼4,000 years until 14–13 ka. We attribute initial retreat to destabilization and grounding line retreat resulting from rising sea level and/or ocean warming in the northern Pacific. Subsequent stability of the ice sheet at the present coastal margin was likely due to the transition from marine to terrestrial margins despite increasing temperatures that may have driven ice sheet thinning. Our findings demonstrate the importance of understanding both climatic and nonclimatic drivers of ice sheet change through time.

Cultural festival, climate change in different phenological phases, and lychee yield in China

AbstractAs one of the biggest agroproducts producers, China plays an important role in the global supply. Yet, climate change inevitably threatens their production and leads to tremendous losses. Furthermore, climatic and nonclimatic factors are likely to influence their producing behaviors and yields. Accordingly, this work aims to explore both the qualitative and quantitative nexus between climate change, nonclimatic drivers, and agroproduct yield in China. We choose lychee (Litchi chinensis Sonn.), with world's largest production in China and one of the most demanding agroproduct for climatic conditions, as the subject. A two‐way fixed‐effect Poisson model with robust standard error is developed based on county‐level panel data in 39 main producing counties in China along with climatic and cultural festival factors from 2014 to 2019. The main conclusions are as follows: (a) the lychee culture festival, a nonclimatic driver, has negative effect on lychee yield, and this is a novel effect pathway theoretically and we verify it empirically; (b) climate changes in various phenological phases are significantly correlated to lychee yield; precipitation during the exposure phase or flowering phase has negative effect, and minimum temperature during the heading phase has positive effect, which is the first paper in this field; and (c) a new method is developed to analyze nonnegative yield and production, which could also be applied in other industries.

Impact of Ocean Warming, Overfishing and Mercury on European Fisheries: A Risk Assessment and Policy Solution Framework

Previous studies have shown that multiple-environmental stressors are expected to have significant and geographically differential impacts on the health and abundance of marine species. In this paper, we analyze the combined impacts of ocean warming, overfishing and mercury pollution in European waters by projecting the impacts of climatic and non-climate drivers on marine species in European waters. Our findings suggest that the impacts vary widely depending on different species and their mean temperature tolerance (MTT). We find for instance, that more than 5 temperate benthopelagic species including, bobtail squids (Sepiida) frogfishes (Lophius) great Atlantic scallop (Pecten maximus) red mullet (Mullus barbatus barbatus) and common octopus (Octopus vulgaris) are affected (i.e., weakens their resilience to climate change) by the increase in sea surface temperature (SST) under RCP 8.5 in 2050 and 2100. Mercury contamination was estimated to increase in some species (e.g., ∼50% in swordfish), exceeding mercury consumption guideline thresholds (&amp;gt;1 mg/kg). This negative impact may limit the capacity of fisheries and marine ecosystem to respond to the current climate induced pollution sensitivity. An implication of our study is that the international community should strengthen a global ban on mercury emissions under the mandate of the Minamata Convention, comparable to the United Nations framework for persistent organic pollutant emission sources. Ongoing global efforts aimed at minimizing carbon footprint and mercury emissions need to be enhanced in concert with a reduction in fishing intensity to maintain effective conservation measures that promote increased resilience of fisheries to climate change and other stressors.

Disentangling the factors of spatio-temporal patterns of wildfire activity in south-eastern France

Background Identifying if and how climatic and non-climatic factors drive local changes in fire regimes is, as in many other human-dominated landscapes, challenging in south-eastern France where both heterogeneous spatial patterns and complex fire trends are observed. Aim We sought to identify the factors driving the spatial-temporal patterns of fire activity in southeastern France. Methods We incorporated several non-climatic variables into the probabilistic Firelihood model of fire activity and implemented an enhanced spatio-temporal component to quantitatively assess remaining unexplained variations in fire activity. Key results Several non-climatic drivers (i.e. orography, land cover and human activities) contributed as much as fire-weather to the distribution of fire occurrence (&gt;1 ha) but less to larger fires (&gt;10, 100 and 1000 ha). Over the past decades, increased fire-weather induced a strong increase in wildfire probabilities, which was actually observed on the western part of the region but not so in the east and Corsican Island, most likely due to reinforced suppression policies. Conclusions While spatial patterns in fire activity are driven by land-use and land-cover factors, temporal patterns were mostly driven by changes in fire-weather and unexplained effects potentially related to suppression policies but with large differences between regions.

Management Strategies to Mitigate Anthropogenic Impacts in Estuarine and Coastal Marine Environments: A Review

A wide range of anthropogenic activities impacts estuarine and coastal marine environments including interactive climate and non-climatic drivers of change that can significantly degrade biotic communities and habitats. Many of these environments are in decline due to changes in ecosystem structure and function resulting from multiple stressor effects. In addition, inadequate governance has supported a patchwork of single issues or sectoral approaches rather than integrated management of multiple human uses and activities to maintain healthy, productive, resilient, and sustainable ecosystems and the provision of goods and services. Ecosystem-based marine spatial planning is a viable framework for a more effective governance structure and management of these vital coastal environments. An important component of this approach is a holistic effort to assess the environmental, economic, and societal impacts of anthropogenic activities. Thus, a multidisciplinary integrated approach is preferred that links ecological, physical, and socio-economic systems, increasing the protection of resources and societal benefits. For degraded estuarine and coastal marine ecosystems, restoration and rehabilitation initiatives are important intervention strategies used to reverse the loss of habitats and biotic resources and to support management programs. Marine Protected Areas (MPAs) are an integral element of marine management plans to conserve and sustain estuarine and coastal marine environments by protecting threatened ecosystems and their resources from anthropogenic activities. National and international regulatory frameworks and directives are also in place to protect and conserve these environments.