Abstract
Previous studies have shown that multiple-environmental stressors are expected to have significant and geographically differential impacts on the health and abundance of marine species. In this paper, we analyze the combined impacts of ocean warming, overfishing and mercury pollution in European waters by projecting the impacts of climatic and non-climate drivers on marine species in European waters. Our findings suggest that the impacts vary widely depending on different species and their mean temperature tolerance (MTT). We find for instance, that more than 5 temperate benthopelagic species including, bobtail squids (Sepiida) frogfishes (Lophius) great Atlantic scallop (Pecten maximus) red mullet (Mullus barbatus barbatus) and common octopus (Octopus vulgaris) are affected (i.e., weakens their resilience to climate change) by the increase in sea surface temperature (SST) under RCP 8.5 in 2050 and 2100. Mercury contamination was estimated to increase in some species (e.g., ∼50% in swordfish), exceeding mercury consumption guideline thresholds (>1 mg/kg). This negative impact may limit the capacity of fisheries and marine ecosystem to respond to the current climate induced pollution sensitivity. An implication of our study is that the international community should strengthen a global ban on mercury emissions under the mandate of the Minamata Convention, comparable to the United Nations framework for persistent organic pollutant emission sources. Ongoing global efforts aimed at minimizing carbon footprint and mercury emissions need to be enhanced in concert with a reduction in fishing intensity to maintain effective conservation measures that promote increased resilience of fisheries to climate change and other stressors.
Highlights
Marine ecosystems and biodiversity provide important and valuable goods and services such as food, amenity benefits, tourism, and carbon sink, but a myriad of anthropogenic activities have altered and are changing the biogeochemistry and biophysics of the oceans, affecting marine species through direct and indirect impacts (Lotze et al, 2006; McCauley et al, 2015; Halpern et al, 2019)
We found that bobtail squids, frogfishes, great Atlantic scallop, red mullet and common octopus will be affected by high sea surface temperature (SST) under Representative Concentrations Pathways (RCPs) 8.5 in 2050 and 2100
Temperature Tolerance Index and mercury concentration patterns analysis of the European waters data series show that there is some evidence of weakening the resilience of fisheries to climatic and non-climate stressors
Summary
Marine ecosystems and biodiversity provide important and valuable goods and services such as food, amenity benefits, tourism, and carbon sink, but a myriad of anthropogenic activities have altered and are changing the biogeochemistry and biophysics of the oceans, affecting marine species through direct and indirect impacts (Lotze et al, 2006; McCauley et al, 2015; Halpern et al, 2019). The ocean, the marine species biodiversity it holds and the fisheries they sustain are facing many threats, e.g., ocean pollution by chemical assaults [e.g., plastics, persistent organic pollutants (POPs), and mercury (methyl-mercury, MeHg)]; (e.g., Alava et al, 2017a, 2018; Schartup et al, 2019; Issifu and Sumaila, 2020; National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine, 2021), global climate change (Noone et al, 2013; IPCC, 2018, 2021), and overfishing (Pauly et al, 1998, 2005; Rogers and Laffoley, 2011; Sumaila et al, 2011; McCauley et al, 2015).
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