Non-agricultural Land Use Research Articles

Accounting for land use, biodiversity and ecosystem services in life cycle assessment: Impacts of breakfast cereals

This study considers the life cycle impacts of land use on biodiversity and ecosystem services associated with the production of a ubiquitous food type: breakfast cereals. For biodiversity, the impacts on five taxonomic groups have been assessed: mammals, birds, vascular plants, amphibians and reptiles. For ecosystem services, the potential loss in the following ecosystem services of soil has been considered: biotic production, erosion resistance, groundwater regeneration, infiltration and physicochemical filtration. The findings indicate that the main hotspot for the biodiversity loss is cocoa cultivation for all taxonomic groups, with a contribution of 27–67%. Cocoa is also a major contributor (35%) to the loss of biotic production, while rice is the largest contributor to erosion (34%), reduction in groundwater replenishment (43%) and physiochemical filtration (23%). Corn is the main cause of the infiltration reduction, accounting for 44% of the impact. Unlike the biodiversity impacts, which are almost entirely caused by agricultural activities, non-agricultural land use occurring in other life cycle stages (transport, packaging and manufacturing), has significant contribution to the reductions in groundwater replenishment and infiltration. The impacts on ecosystem services are almost entirely driven by land occupation, while the biodiversity impacts are caused by both land use change and occupation. The identification of cocoa as the main hotspot is unexpected as it is used only in very small quantities (<5% by mass) in breakfast cereals. Its high contribution to the impacts is partly due to the land use change in the ecoregion of the Eastern Guinean forests, which are home to a relatively large number of endemic species. The paper also discusses the limitations of the impact assessment methods for evaluating the biodiversity and ecosystem services and highlights the need for further development of indicators and methods to assess the land use impacts in life cycle assessment.

Applied Geo-Eye Imagery and GIS for Estimating Crop Production Based On Land Suitability in Karangasem Regency, Bali

Farming practices are vital to agrarian countries like Indonesia. Over the years, regional development process, coupled with lack of information on agricultural production, has induced human interventions on land that markedly convert agricultural into non-agricultural land use. Therefore, estimating crop production becomes necessary for a deeper understanding on the farming potential of a region. The study was conducted in various physical environments in Karangasem Regency, Bali. It aimed to 1) estimate both crop production and productivity using land suitability approach; 2) calculate the crop production and productivity; and 3) map the type of cropping pattern and schedule in the study area. Crop production was estimated with remote sensing and Geographic Information System (GIS) techniques and based on land suitability for rice, maize, and cassava production. The results show that remote sensing and GIS are essential in the estimation of crop production and productivity that employs land suitability approach and matching method. The estimated productions of rice, maize, and cassava are 540,173.840 kg/year, 1,843,857.202 kg/year, and 903,416.517 kg/year, respectively. In addition, the cropping pattern in Karangasem Regency varies between land suitability units, as determined by subak irrigation system, weather variation, and the economic condition of farmers.

Efficiency of soil and water conservation practices in different agro-ecological environments in the Upper Blue Nile Basin of Ethiopia

In developing countries such as Ethiopia, research to develop and promote soil and water conservation practices rarely addressed regional diversity. Using a water-balance approach in this study, we used runoff plots from three sites, each representing a different agro-ecological environment, e.g., high, mid and low in both elevation and rainfall, in the Upper Blue Nile Basin of Ethiopia to examine the runoff response and runoff conservation efficiency of a range of different soil and water conservation measures and their impacts on soil moisture. The plots at each site represented common land use types (cultivated vs. non-agricultural land use types) and slopes (gentle and steep). Seasonal runoff from control plots in the highlands ranged 214–560 versus 253–475 mm at midlands and 119–200 mm at lowlands. The three soil and water conservation techniques applied in cultivated land increased runoff conservation efficiency by 32% to 51%, depending on the site. At the moist subtropical site in a highland region, soil and water conservation increased soil moisture enough to potentially cause waterlogging, which was absent at the lowrainfall sites. Soil bunds combined with Vetiveria zizanioides grass in cultivated land and short trenches in grassland conserved the most runoff (51% and 55%, respectively). Runoff responses showed high spatial variation within and between land use types, causing high variation in soil and water conservation efficiency. Our results highlight the need to understand the role of the agro-ecological environment in the success of soil and water conservation measures to control runoff and hydrological dynamics. This understanding will support policy development to promote the adoption of suitable techniques that can be tested at other locations with similar soil, climatic, and topographic conditions.

Flora, life form characteristics, and plan for the promotion of biodiversity in South Korea’s Globally Important Agricultural Heritage System, the traditional Gudeuljang irrigated rice terraces in Cheongsando

The objectives of this study were to analyze the biodiversity of the Traditional Gudeuljang Irrigated Rice Terraces in Cheongsando, South Korea’s representative GIAHS (Globally Important Agricultural Heritage System) site, with reference to position and land-use features, and to develop a plan to promote agricultural biodiversity in the region. We confirmed approximately 54,000 m2 of Gudeuljang paddy fields by an on-site survey. Of the Traditional Gudeuljang Irrigated Rice Terraces confirmed by onsite inspection, our survey showed that approximately 24,000 m2 are currently being used as paddy fields, approximately 15,000 m2 are being used as dry fields, and approximately 14,000 m2 are fallow. In terms of other non-agricultural land use, there was grassland, including graveyards; artificial arboreal land, such as orchards, rivers and wetlands, and man-made facilities, such as roads and residences. We also confirmed that the Traditional Gudeuljang Irrigated Rice Terraces had higher plant species diversity than conventional terraced rice paddies, and there was a difference in life form characteristics between the two types. Although the superficial topsoil structure is the same for the Traditional Gudeuljang Irrigated Rice Terraces (TGIRTs) and conventional terraced rice paddies, it is thought that the differences in the subsurface structure of the TGIRTs contribute greatly to species and habitat diversity. However, the TGIRTs in Cheongsando are facing degeneration, due to damage and reduction in agricultural activity. The main cause is the reduction in the number of farming households due to an aging population in Cheongsando. In order to address this problem, we proposed a management plan, related to fallow paddy fields in South Korea, to initiate voluntary activities in the TGIRTs.

The Analysis of the Role of Social Capital in Risk-Taking and Entrepreneurship of Rural Youth (Case Study: Tonekabon County)

Extended abstract 1. INTRODUCTION Rural entrepreneurship is considered as a new approach for empowerment and capacity building in rural areas in order to reduce the gap between urban-rural areas and providing economic equality, social, environmental and institutional equalities. The level and scope of the risk are associated with the large number of factors and one of the most prominent categories of them is The social capital enjoys such important role in comparison with other sorts of capital that in the absence of social capital, other sorts of capital lose their effectiveness. The present paper is an attempt to examine and explain the communicating pattern between pillars of social capital with risk taking of youth with the aim of sustainability of rural entrepreneurship in Tonekabon County. 2. THEORETICAL FRAMEWORK Entrepreneurship is a process in which the individual entrepreneur, according to his personality traits, consciously is to solve a problem and with innovative and creative spirit provides solutions, tools and/or plans and by accepting risks them tries to make them happen and finally strives to market his product and develop and underpin a new stream. Thus, rural entrepreneurs are seeking to identify new opportunities, innovation and creativity in agricultural and non-agricultural activities, land use and optimal, versatile and innovative use with the aim of rural development. Therefore, social capital is a source created in the business network or within individual network and has two basic pillars of trust and social network. In the meantime, one of the most important fundamental factors is social capital as it leads to creativity, innovative behaviors and the increase of judicious risk-taking and use of material interests. The communities that enjoy a variety of social networks and civic associations are in a much more robust situation in facing vulnerabilities and the disputes and can better control their risk sources. 3. METHODOLOGY The present study is applied and developmental in terms of purpose, descriptive-analytical in terms of the nature, and correlational in terms of type of research. The data was collected using documents and field studies. The instrument used in this study was a questionnaire survey. The validity of the instrument was assessed with the help of 15 experts and specialists in the field of planning and rural development in the area under question. The reliability of test was achieved using the factor analysis (K.M.O = 0.812) that confirms the high reliability of the tool. With utilizing Cochran formula and confidence coefficient of 95 percent the sample size of 365 young persons in rural was determined and the amount of Bartlett's test, i.e. 951.689, verified that the sample size was sufficient to conduct research and analysis. Samples of the study were selected using multistage cluster sampling and randomly from District, Rural District (or Dehestan) and Hamlet (or Abadi), respectively. Descriptive statistics were provided using SPSS software and the final analysis was conducted utilizing path analysis in LISREL8.5 software. 4. DISCUSSION Previous theories and researches suggest that one of the influencing factors in the risk taking of entrepreneurs is social capital. This paper strived to analyze and explain the impact of social capital indicators on risk-taking of rural youth in Tonekabon County to establish and develop entrepreneurship. The results of path analysis with the coefficient of 48 percent have shown that to some extent the risk-taking of the rural youth in the region is effected by social capital and also the elements of social capital not only have direct impact on the risk-taking, they have also indirect impact. In terms of efficacy, it can also be said that elements of social capital enjoy positive effects on the risk-taking of rural youth. Among the above-mentioned elements, the highest level of (direct and indirect) impact was related to Partnership with 0.22. Subsequently, there are Social trust with the 0.195, Place Attachment with 0.106 and solidarity and social bond with 0.10, respectively. 5. CONCLUSION The result confirms the fact that the greater the amount of social capital leads to more tendency towards entrepreneurship and risk-taking. As a result, communities with higher social capital can cause flourishing of new ideas in people with having positive impact on the transfer of information and this new idea leads to creativity and consequently higher risk-taking and entrepreneurship of the society. Besides, social capital reduces costs, improves information flow, increases confidence, stability and consistency in order to achieve common goals.

Climatically driven change in soil carbon across a basalt landscape is restricted to non-agricultural land use systems

Soils represent a significant component of the global terrestrial carbon cycle. Historical soil carbon depletion resulting from soil and land management offers an opportunity to store additional carbon to offset greenhouse gas emissions as part of our international response to climate change. However, our ability to reliably measure, estimate and predict soil carbon storage is hindered by a range of sources of variability, not least of which is change through time. In the present study, we assessed temporal changes in soil organic carbon (SOC) and its component fractions in response to climate alone and in the absence of land use change at any given site by examining a series of soil monitoring sites across a basalt landscape in north-west New South Wales under a range of land use types over a 3-year period (March–April 2008 and March–April 2011), where a significant rainfall event had occurred in the intervening time (2010). Across the dataset, woodland soils contained the largest carbon concentration (SOC%) and total organic carbon stock (TOCs) compared with other non-wooded land use systems, which themselves were statistically similar. However, larger carbon quantities were restricted largely to the surface (0–10cm) soil layers. Between 2008 and 2011, significant increases in SOC% and TOCs were detected, but again these were restricted to the woodland sites. No change in particulate organic carbon (POC) was detected between the two sampling times, but both humic organic carbon (HOC) and resistant organic carbon (ROC) increased in woodland soils between the two sampling times. Increased HOC we attribute to microbial processing of soil carbon following the 2010–11 rainfall event. However, we suggest that increased ROC results from limitations in mid-infrared calibration datasets and estimations. We conclude that the quantity of soil carbon and its component fractions is, indeed, driven by climatic factors, but that these effects are moderated by aboveground land use and SOC inputs.

Suitability of Water Harvesting in the Upper Blue Nile Basin, Ethiopia: A First Step towards a Mesoscale Hydrological Modeling Framework

Extreme rainfall variability has been one of the major factors to famine and environmental degradation in Ethiopia. The potential for water harvesting in the Upper Blue Nile Basin was assessed using two GIS-based Multicriteria Evaluation methods: (1) a Boolean approach to locate suitable areas for in situ and ex situ systems and (2) a weighted overlay analysis to classify suitable areas into different water harvesting suitability levels. The sensitivity of the results was analyzed to the influence given to different constraining factors. A large part of the basin was suitable for water harvesting: the Boolean analysis showed that 36% of the basin was suitable for in situ and ex situ systems, while the weighted overlay analysis showed that 6–24% of the basin was highly suitable. Rainfall has the highest influence on suitability for water harvesting. Implementing water harvesting in nonagricultural land use types may further increase the benefit. Assessing water harvesting suitability at the larger catchment scale lays the foundation for modeling of water harvesting at mesoscale, which enables analysis of the potential and implications of upscaling of water harvesting practices for building resilience against climatic shocks. A complete water harvesting suitability study requires socioeconomic analysis and stakeholder consultation.

Dynamics of agricultural land use change in Kerala: a policy and social-ecological perspective

Land-use change is a phenomenon highlighting significant shifts in human interaction with the natural environment. Different patterns of agriculture and a trend towards non-agricultural land use challenge the sustainability of farming systems. This study aims to identify the causes of changes in land use and cropping patterns, with a special focus on paddy, the staple crop in Asia. In the case of Wayanad, a district in Kerala, South India, we argue for an interdisciplinary analysis of rapid land-use change to unpack the multiple dimensions of sustainability: economic, ecological and social factors, aggregating up to 70% reduction in the area under paddy by 2010. The results rest on empirical field research, participatory rural appraisals and stakeholder workshops conducted during the 4-year period from 2010 to 2013, along with state- and district-level data covering the 1983–2011 period. Reduced economic viability, labour shortages and population pressure on land are the major drivers for the transformation of paddy fields to other land uses. Changes in land use and agrarian structure reflect not only the livelihood strategies adopted by farmers in response to these drivers, but also the impacts of unintended policy idiosyncrasies. At a more fundamental level, they are the consequences of policy conflicts and inadequate sectoral integration of policies and implementation strategies.

ANALISIS KEMAMPUAN LAHAN UNTUK ARAHAN PENGGUNAAN LAHAN PADA LERENG TIMUR LAUT GUNUNG AGUNG KABUPATEN KARANGASEM-BALI

This research was conducted in the northeastern slopes of Mount Agung in Karangasem regency, Bali province. The research area is dry land with land use patterns that have not demonstrated compliance with existing land potential. On the other hand, technological advances in the field of agriculture has been growing rapidly, one by analyzing the ability of the land to determine the potential of land resources and minimize the risk of failure of farmers. The results of the analysis of land capability is expected to serve as guidelines in a more optimal use of land in accordance with expectations. The purpose of this study was to determine the potential of land and recommends referral based land use conditions existing land capability in the area of research. The design used is descriptive design, with the main objective to provide a picture or description of land use capability and suitability of the study area. Guidelines for land capability analysis in this study refers to Arsyad (2006) and the Regulation of the Minister of Environment No. 17 Year 2009 on Guidelines for Determining Environmental Carrying Capacity in Regional Spatial Planning. The results showed that 1) land capability class research in areas ranging from class III to class VI. Land capability class III is spread on the land unit 1, land unit 2, land unit 3,and land unit 8. Capability class IV land located on land unit 4, land unit 7, land unit 9, land unit 10 and land unit 12.Land capability classes VI located on land unit 5, land unit 6, and land unit 11; 2) land use suitability value obtained was 92.85%. This shows that almost the entire study area (92.85%) is in conformity between the ability of the land and its use. The rest (7.15%) classified as not appropriate. Suitability of the land use study area into the high criteria; 3) Referral land use adapted to the existing conditions of land units. In class III-IV land that does not meet the user or not used optimally, land use options to do that seasonal crops, plantation crops. While on a class VI land use that is not appropriate or not used optimally, land use options to do that forest production and non-agricultural land use.

Estimation of stability-related soil properties using mid-infrared spectroscopy for non-agricultural land use in Lake Victoria basin, Kenya

ABSTRACTMethods for rapid and accurate soil tests are needed for stability-related soil properties, which are valuable for non-agricultural land use. The study tested the applicability of mid-infrared (MIR) spectroscopy for rapid estimation of selected stability-related soil properties. Two sample sets, representing different soils from across the Lake Victoria basin of Kenya, were used for the study. A model calibration set (n = 135) was obtained following a conditioned Latin hypercube sampling, and a validation set (n = 120) was obtained from independent sites using a spatially stratified random sampling strategy. Air-dried and ground (<0.5 mm) soils were scanned using a high-throughput screening accessory for diffuse reflectance attached to a Fourier transform infrared spectrometer. Soil properties for interval-depth datasets were calibrated to smoothed first derivative MIR spectra using partial least-square regression (PLS) and the results were evaluated using hold-out full cross-validation. MIR spect...

Dynamic Modelling of Land Use Change Impacts on Nitrate Loads in Rivers

Agricultural land use practices were found to have a great impact on river water quality. Highly variable boundary conditions such as seasonal weather influence or market impacts lead to dynamic changes in the use of agricultural crops. In rural areas with a huge share of agricultural land use, these dynamics are accompanied with changes of river water quality. To quantify these impacts for the future, it is common practice to apply scenario simulations with eco-hydrological catchment models. For this, it is essential to represent spatially and temporal variations in agricultural crops. In this study, we present a dynamic modelling approach of spatial agricultural crops distribution and its impacts on nitrate loads in rivers at the catchment scale. Area proportions of crops are reproduced in a data-based approach according to the current land use situation in the catchment. Using this spatial crop distribution, the eco-hydrological model SWAT is calibrated for discharge and nitrate time series. Within scenario simulations, the spatial crop distribution is updated dynamically for each year, while non-agricultural land use areas remain constant. The dynamic approach is compared with a static land use scenario, in which the land use information is changed only once immediately at the beginning of the scenario period. Good model results were realised for discharge and nitrate loads in the calibration and validation period. The evaluation of the land use change scenarios for the period from 2021 to 2030 revealed changes in nitrate loads. The analysis of the dynamic land use update illustrates an increase in the changes between the scenarios within the modelling period. Consequently, the presented approach allows the quantification of nutrient dynamics that are related to dynamic changes of land use during the simulation period. We conclude that this study shows how the dynamic modelling leads to a more realistic temporal development of land use change and its impacts on nitrate.

Peripheral Rural Areas around Poznań and Their Value Measured with Economic Indicators

In the era of consumption — appropriation of rural areas located in the metropolitan region of Poznań it seems reasonable to estimate their material value. According to authors of publications on environmental services: Mizgajski, Lowicki, and authors discussing problems of sustainable development of rural areas in Poland, such as Kistowski, Matczak, and Myga-Piątek, the economic value of the natural environment is important from the point of view of geographical environment management, both at the local and regional level. The example of peripheral areas in the metropolitan region of Poznań serves to allow the authors of this study to present the approach of preparation of an economic card for the efficiency of agricultural space. The research objective was to present an evaluation of economic opportunities achievable with different classes of soils that are subject to subsequent transformations to a non-agricultural land use. The estimation of economic values based on indicators of costs and income from 1 ha of arable land, and their comparison to the indicators included in projections of financial results made for local spatial development plans allow determination of the actual value of rural areas which, as a result of suburbanization, were consumed by residential and economic stimulation.

ARAHAN PENGGUNAAN LAHAN SUB DAERAH ALIRAN SUNGAI (DAS) TELAGAWAJA PROVINSI BALI

Telagawaja Sub-Watershed is upper part watershed of Unda Watershed. As upper watershed, Telagawaja sub watershed has functions as conservation area, water catchment area, and managed in order to keep sub watershed environment not degradated. This research objectives are to identify the characteristics of the land, the function of the area, and the erosion potential rate (TBE), as well as land management recommendations on Telagawaja Sub-Watershed. The identification of land is conducted by analyzing the characteristics of thematic maps in study area. The directives of classification land function is determined by the Minister of Agriculture Number.837/Kpts/Um/ 11/1980 and Number: 683/Kpts/Um/8/1981. The prediction of actual erosion is calculated by USLE formula for the agriculture area, while non-agricultural land use is applied Snyder formula (1980) in Asdak (2010). Erosion class and erosion rate (TBE) are determined based on the Director General of Reforestation and Land Rehabilitation Department of Forestry Number.041/Kpts/V/1998. Determination for the amount of erosion is still can be allowed using the method of Thompson (1957) in Arsyad (2010) which based on soil properties attached to Telagawaja sub watershed. The research shows that Telagawaja Sub-Watershed characteristic is an area which is susceptible to erosion.The analysis shows that the direction of the area function Telagawaja sub-watershed consists of an area of 7337.28 Ha of protection forest (66.01%), and the function of a buffer area 3.778.31 Ha (33.99%). The result of the study on Telagawaja sub-watershed erosion is 2777.07 tonnes ha-1year-1. Erosion class and erosion rate of Telagawaja Sub-Watershed vary from very light to very severe. Erosion class and erosion rate (TBE) with category severe to very severe consist an area of 2.071,97 ha (18,64 %) from total sub-watershed area. Land use planning implemented by applying alternative measures of soil and water conservation can reduce the rate of erosion of 2777.07 tonnes ha-1year-1 to 611.00 tonnes ha-1year-1 or less 2166.07 tonnes ha- 1year-1.

Modeling larval malaria vector habitat locations using landscape features and cumulative precipitation measures.

BackgroundPredictive models of malaria vector larval habitat locations may provide a basis for understanding the spatial determinants of malaria transmission.MethodsWe used four landscape variables (topographic wetness index [TWI], soil type, land use-land cover, and distance to stream) and accumulated precipitation to model larval habitat locations in a region of western Kenya through two methods: logistic regression and random forest. Additionally, we used two separate data sets to account for variation in habitat locations across space and over time.ResultsLarval habitats were more likely to be present in locations with a lower slope to contributing area ratio (i.e. TWI), closer to streams, with agricultural land use relative to nonagricultural land use, and in friable clay/sandy clay loam soil and firm, silty clay/clay soil relative to friable clay soil. The probability of larval habitat presence increased with increasing accumulated precipitation. The random forest models were more accurate than the logistic regression models, especially when accumulated precipitation was included to account for seasonal differences in precipitation. The most accurate models for the two data sets had area under the curve (AUC) values of 0.864 and 0.871, respectively. TWI, distance to the nearest stream, and precipitation had the greatest mean decrease in Gini impurity criteria in these models.ConclusionsThis study demonstrates the usefulness of random forest models for larval malaria vector habitat modeling. TWI and distance to the nearest stream were the two most important landscape variables in these models. Including accumulated precipitation in our models improved the accuracy of larval habitat location predictions by accounting for seasonal variation in the precipitation. Finally, the sampling strategy employed here for model parameterization could serve as a framework for creating predictive larval habitat models to assist in larval control efforts.

Underlying motivation for land use change: A case study on the variation of agricultural factor productivity in Xinjiang, China

Understanding the driving forces and mechanism of land use change is a key issue in land change science, and has received much attention over the past 30 years. While many driving forces have been identified, the mechanism of land use change is still unclear, mainly because of limited knowledge of the underlying motivation for land use change. Traditionally, the underlying motivation for land use change was ascribed to people’s pursuit of satisfying their own demands or that of profit maximization. However, those theoretical hypotheses combine all productive factors without highlighting certain predominant factor. In this paper, a case study was conducted on the variation of land productivity, capital productivity and labor productivity in agricultural land use in Xinjiang Uygur Autonomous Region of China. The case study revealed that only labor productivity presented a long-term increasing trend in regional cotton and grain production. This result implies that people’s pursuit of increasing labor productivity is probably the underlying motivation for land use change. Additional details identified in agricultural and non-agricultural land use in China support the above implication. As labor productivity is a determinant of people’s living standards, increasing labor productivity means improving people’s living standards. Therefore, it is concluded that land use change results from people’s pursuit of increasing labor productivity in a changing environment.

Clarification of collective land rights and its impact on non-agricultural land use in the Pearl River Delta of China: A case of Shunde

During the past several decades the rural industrialization process has exploded in many developed areas of China, which has greatly affected land use in the rural China. This paper argues that the double-track land use and management system is one of the major institutional settings behind non-agricultural land uses and demonstrates how the bottom-up institutional reform, the land share-holding cooperative, has influenced non-agricultural land uses in the Pearl River Delta. Taking Shunde as a case study, this paper analyzes land use dynamics and characteristics in Shunde. It finds that the establishment of land shareholding cooperatives has facilitated the industrialization process on a low cost basis through pooling the fragmentally-held land plots. Meanwhile, however, the village-based development has caused the fragmentation of construction land due to the governance fragmentation. It concludes that solutions to the problems will come from the negotiated relationship between top-down and bottom-up approaches, a combination of the two.

Harvesting the sun: New estimations of the maximum population of planet Earth

The maximum population, also called Earth's carrying capacity, is the maximum number of people that can live on the food and other resources available on planet Earth. Previous investigations estimated the maximum carrying capacity as large as about 1 trillion people under the assumption that photosynthesis is the limiting process. Here we use a present state-of-the-art dynamic global vegetation model with managed planetary land surface, Lund-Potsdam-Jena managed Land (LPJmL), to calculate the yields of the most productive crops on a global 0.5° × 0.5° grid. Using the 2005 crop distribution the model predicts total harvested calories that are sufficient for the nutrition of 11.4 billion people. We define scenarios where humankind uses the whole land area for agriculture, saves the rain forests and the boreal evergreen forests or cultivates only pasture to feed animals. Every scenario is run in an extreme version with no allowance for urban and recreational needs and in two soft versions with a certain area per person for non-agricultural use. We find that there are natural limits of the maximum carrying capacity which are independent of any increase in agricultural productivity, if non-agricultural land use is accounted for. Using all land planet Earth can sustain 282 billion people. The save-forests-scenario yields 150 billion people. The scenario that cultivates only pasture to feed animals yields 96 billion people. Nevertheless, we should always have in mind that all our calculated numbers for the carrying capacity refer to extreme scenarios where humankind may only vegetate on this planet. Our numbers are considerably higher than the general median estimate of upper bounds of human population found in the literature in the order of 10 billion.

Modelling sustainable bioenergy potentials from agriculture for Germany and Eastern European countries

Abstract This paper presents a model for analyzing the sustainable potential of agricultural biomass for energy production. Available land and residue potentials are assessed up to 2030 for Germany, Poland, the Czech Republic and Hungary. Two scenarios are presented: a “business as usual” scenario is compared to a sustainability scenario. The latter implements a comprehensive sustainability strategy, taking also into account non-agricultural land use such as building activity and nature conservation. On the one hand our model quantifies the conflict of objectives between enhanced extensification in agriculture and increased area for nature conservation. On the other hand the synergies in restricting built up area and increased mobilisation of agricultural residues are assessed. Additionally the impact of reduced subsidized agricultural exports from the EU is calculated, also as an indicator for the influence of world food markets on bioenergy potentials. Our results show that the sustainable energy potential from agricultural biomass is strongly restricted for Germany and the Czech Republic compared to their energy demand. But in Poland and Hungary native agricultural biomass provides a much higher potential for energy supply, even if sustainability is comprehensively considered. However, this is strongly influenced by the amount of agricultural exports of each country. For bioenergy from agricultural cultivation to remain a sustainable option in the energy sector, its influence on the food markets must be respected more thoroughly and a comprehensive approach to sustainable development in land use is a prerequisite.

Stochastic uncertainties and sensitivities of a regional-scale transport model of nitrate in groundwater

Groundwater quality management relies more and more on models in recent years. These models are used to predict the risk of groundwater contamination for various land uses. This paper presents an assessment of uncertainties and sensitivities to input parameters for a regional model. The model had been set up to improve and facilitate the decision-making process between stakeholders and in a groundwater quality conflict. The stochastic uncertainty and sensitivity analysis comprised a Monte Carlo simulation technique in combination with a Latin hypercube sampling procedure. The uncertainty of the calculated concentrations of nitrate leached into groundwater was assessed for the various combinations of land use, soil type, and depth of the groundwater table in a vulnerable, sandy region in The Netherlands. The uncertainties in the shallow groundwater were used to assess the uncertainty of the nitrate concentration in the abstracted groundwater. The confidence intervals of the calculated nitrate concentrations in shallow groundwater for agricultural land use functions did not overlap with those of non-agricultural land use such as nature, indicating significantly different nitrate leaching in these areas. The model results were sensitive for almost all input parameters analyzed. However, the NSS is considered pretty robust because no shifts in uncertainty between factors occurred between factors towards systematic changes in fertilizer and manure inputs of the scenarios. In view of these results, there is no need to collect more data to allow science based decision-making in this planning process. © 2008 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Rural Organization and Land Reform in Brazil: The Role of Nonagricultural Benefits of Landholding

This article examines the effects of nonagricultural land use on agrarian organization and land reform in an economy characterized by limited credit and land rental markets. The nonagricultural demand for land, under credit constraint, generates a potential mismatch between the distribution of land and the distribution of farming skills. This disparity reduces the agricultural output if the land rental market is absent. A perfect land rental market is shown to determine the highest possible agricultural output. Policy implications from the model include, in addition to market improvements, the fact that small farmers rather than landless people should be the target of redistributive land reform programs.