Economic Growth In Nigeria Research Articles

The Macroeconomic Impact of Crude Oil Price Fluctuations in Nigeria

The main objective of the study was to determine the way fluctuations in the price of crude oil affected macroeconomic variables in Nigeria from 2000 Q1 to 2022 Q4. The data was analysed in the paper using Structural Vector Autoregressive (SVAR) models. According to the findings, Nigeria's current economic growth has been significantly impacted by lag GDP values. This indicates that economic growth in Nigeria was significantly impacted by one-period lag GDP by 3,791.7 units in the short-run and 7,430.4 units in the long-run. Also in the short-run, the current broad money supply was significantly impacted by both the one-period lag general price level (0.445 units) and the one-quarter lag broad money supply (757.7 units). According to the crude oil price fluctuation model, current crude oil price variations in Nigeria are significantly influenced by one-period lags in general price level (-64.9 units), crude oil price fluctuation (1,114.6 units), and fiscal budget deficits (0.65 units). All of the one-period lagged coefficients of macroeconomic variables, including real GDP, broad money supply, interest rates, general price level, inflation rates, and fiscal budget deficits, had a significant impact on current economic growth and broad money supply, respectively, as demonstrated by the long-run economic growth and broad money supply models. The real GDP's impulse response to fluctuations in crude oil prices fell during the first period, peaked during the second, and then increased to show a positive trend during the third. This study came to the conclusion that shocks or fluctuations in the price of crude oil are the main cause of macroeconomic policy instability in Nigeria. The study recommended that the government should control foreign exchange rate regimes, pursue expansionary monetary policy, general price level control and stabilisation measures.

Ression Analysis on the Impact of Agriculture, Industry and Service Sector on Economic Growth in Nigeria

This study investigates the impact of agriculture, industry, and the service sector on Nigeria's economic growth from 1990 to 2022, using data obtained from the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) Statistical Bulletin. Employing an Ordinary Least Squares (OLS) regression model, the research explores the contributions of these key sectors to Nigeria's Gross Domestic Product (GDP). The findings reveal that the industrial sector has a significant positive effect on GDP, emphasizing its crucial role in driving economic growth. The agricultural sector also contributes positively, though its impact is relatively modest, highlighting the need for modernization and investment to enhance productivity. Surprisingly, the service sector shows a statistically significant negative impact on GDP, contrary to its traditionally recognized role in economic expansion. This anomaly suggests underlying structural issues within the sector that require further investigation. The study's model explains approximately 59.65% of the variation in GDP, with no significant evidence of autocorrelation, heteroskedasticity, or multicollinearity affecting the results. Based on these findings, the study recommends targeted policy interventions to improve agricultural productivity, strengthen industrialization efforts, and reform the service sector to foster balanced and sustainable economic growth in Nigeria.

Effect of Foreign Direct Investment on Economic Growth in Nigeria and Ghana

Effect of Foreign Direct Investment on Economic Growth in Nigeria and Ghana

Predicting gross domestic product using the ensemble machine learning method

The need for more accurate GDP predictions in Nigeria has necessitated the exploration of additional indicators that reflect economic activities and socio-economic factors. This research pioneers a comprehensive approach to predicting Nigeria's Gross Domestic Product (GDP) by integrating a wide array of indicators beyond traditional economic metrics. The primary objective is to enhance the prediction accuracy of Nigeria's GDP using a diverse range of socio-economic indicators. Drawing from data spanning 2000 to 2021, the study incorporates variables like healthcare expenditure, net migration rates, population demographics, life expectancy, access to electricity, and internet usage. Utilising machine learning techniques such as Random Forest Regressor, XGBoost Regressor, and Linear Regression, the study rigorously evaluates the efficacy of these algorithms in forecasting GDP. The analysis reveals that all selected indicators have a strong correlation with GDP. Significantly, the Random Forest Regressor emerges as the most robust model, boasting an R2 score of 0.96 and a Mean Absolute Error (MAE) of 24.29. The study underscores that optimising factors like healthcare, internet access, and electricity availability could serve as pivotal levers for accelerating Nigeria's economic growth.

Financial Inclusion, Poverty Reduction, and Economic Growth in Nigeria: An Empirical Study Using SVAR Approach (1980-2020)

This study examines the empirical analysis of financial inclusion, poverty reduction and economic growth in Nigeria from 1981 to 2020 using the Structural Vector Auto-Regressive (SVAR) model for analysis, with Gross Domestic Product (GDP) as dependent variable and Branches of Commercial Banks (CBBA), Automated Teller Machine (ATMAD), Mobile Phone-Based Transactions and Broad Money Supply (MS) as explanatory variables. The findings of the study reveal that the unit root test shows that Real Gross Domestic Product (RGDP), Commercial Bank Branches (CBB), Money Supply (MS) and Poverty Rate (PR) are stationary at first difference. The results also reveal that in Nigeria, availability and access to money have a positive shock impact on RGDP, and CBB also has a favourable shock effect on RGDP in Nigeria. However, the PR has a negative impact on the RGDP. Therefore, the study recommends that the government should increase its efforts to promote financial inclusion and the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) should make commercial banks increase not only their branches but also increase the number of Automated Teller Machines (ATMs).

The role of human capital development in urbanization-economic growth nexus: A new insight on Nigeria

Given the inevitable rise in global urban size, it has become pertinent to prioritize sustainable urban development which supports economic growth. Hence, the surge in sustainable urban-economic growth literature. Moreover, there is a growing argument that the growth effect of urbanization is contingent on the mediating roles of certain macroeconomic factors. However, despite being one of the fastest urbanizing countries in the world, extant studies on urbanization-economic growth nexus in Nigeria are few and the possible modulating roles of macroeconomic factors in the nexus has not been studied. Therefore, using annual data spanning between 1991 and 2022, this study examines the modulating effect of human capital development (HCD) in the relationship between urbanization and economic growth in Nigeria. For the empirical analysis, the study adopts the autoregressive distributed lag error correction model (ARDL-ECM). Robustness of the findings is tested using the dynamic ordinary least square (DOLS) estimator. The regression outcomes s show that while urbanization independently does not promote economic growth, its interaction with the measure of HCD produces a positive coefficient suggesting that HCD mitigates the adverse effect of urbanization on economic growth. Based on the findings, the study recommends that urban development policies should be compatible with achieving well-managed cities in order to harness the agglomeration economies benefits of increasing urbanization process. In addition, due to the favourable role of HCD in the urbanization-economic growth relationship, strategic plans focused on promoting human capital in the form of education and health should be focalized in urban development policies.

The Impact Analysis of the Relationship Between Foreign Aid and Economic Development in Nigeria

This study examines the impacts of foreign direct investment (FDI) as a proxy for Foreign Aid, alongside other critical economic and political variables, on Nigeria's economic development. Utilizing an Ordinary Least Squares (OLS) regression model from 1981 to 2022, it explores the dynamics between FDI, trade openness, unemployment rate, corruption index, inflation rate, political stability, and population growth rate in shaping Nigeria's economic growth trajectory. The findings reveal that FDI significantly contributes to economic development, while trade openness highlights the importance of a conducive external economic environment. Conversely, the adverse effects of inflation and corruption highlight critical challenges that undermine the potential benefits of foreign aid and investment. This study highlights the complex relationship between foreign aid, economic policies, and institutional frameworks. It emphasizes Nigeria's need to bolster governance and macroeconomic stability to optimize the developmental impacts of foreign aid. Through empirical analysis, this research contributes to the discourse on development economics, offering professional insights into the conditions under which foreign aid can effectively foster sustainable economic growth in Nigeria.

Impact of Youth Unemployment on Economic Growth in Nigeria: A Review Paper

Impact of Youth Unemployment on Economic Growth in Nigeria: A Review Paper

Massive Governance, Miserable Populace: Cost Of Governance As Economic Growth Decelerator In Nigeria

This study looks at massive governance, miserable populace: cost of governance as economic growth decelerator in Nigeria. This study used surveys to collect a total of 310 respondent. Looking back, we see how cost of governance become a negative impact on Nigeria's economic growth; We see that revenue from many sectors is used to finance massive governance which slows down the growth of Nigeria, massive governance weakens the Nigerian economy and slows down the growth of Nigeria economy. The heavy debt service economy has become the basis of Nigeria's economic growth, leading to excessive and ineffective spending of Nigerian funds by the political class. The study concluded that Nigerians will experience sustainable economic growth that will lead to development if she promotes and accepts a part-time unicameral legislature which will reduce the size of the political class and the salary structure, her economy will continue to slow down, thereby causing population poverty and course diseases in the country. The study also makes some recommendations to Nigerians and policy makers. Implication of this research is that by adopting a part-time unicameral legislature to minimize governance costs.

Budget Deficit and Economic Growth in Nigeria: An Empirical Analysis

This study was expected to investigate the impact of Budget Deficit on economic growth of Nigeria between 1983 and 2023. Ex – post facto research design was accepted; annual time series data for analyses were collected from Central Bank of Nigeria Statistical Bulletin of 2022. Real Gross Domestic Product (RGDP) was used as the explained or dependent variable proxy for economic growth. budget deficit (BDF), inflation (INF) and money supply (MS) all represent explanatory or independent variables. The study employed Auto Regressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) Model which was used to analyzed and evaluate the coefficients of the model’s parameters. Other diagnostic tests employed by this study include; unit root test, descriptive statistics, correlation coefficient matrix, Cointegration test and test of Normality, and they confirmed the validity and reliability of the model used; the inferential results showed that budget deficits impacted significantly on the economic growth of Nigeria under the review period. The paper recommended strongly that the country should display a high degree of transparency in its fiscal policies or operations by directing its fiscal deficits present towards investments that will increase productivity such as building roads, providing electricity and encouraging Foreign Direct Investments (FDI). The paper equally recommended inflation targeting in order to achieve a non-inflationary trend economy purposely to achieve the macroeconomic goal of price stability. The policy makers should direct capital and financial resources of government toward targeted programs like employment opportunity in productive ventures.

Foreign Reserve and Economic Growth: A Comparative Analysis of Nigeria and Ghana

This paper examined the comparative analysis of the effect of foreign exchange reserve on the economic growth of Nigeria and Ghana. The foreign reserve was proxy by country external reserve, while economic growth was equally proxy by Gross Domestic Product. Data extracted for the sampled period were analysed using descriptive and inferential statistics. An ex-post facto research design was adopted for the study. Data were obtained for sixty-four (64) years (1960-2023) from the reports of World Bank for Ghana and Nigeria. Regression test for the hypothesis was set at a significance level of 5%. The findings showed that external reserve was jointly positive and significant on the economic growth of Nigeria and Ghana (p-value = 0.0000; <0.05) and (p-value = 0.0000; <0.05) respectively. The findings also showed that Ghana had a stronger positive relationship between external reserve and economic development. The Adjusted R-Square of Ghana and Nigeria stood at 0.95 and 0.77 respectively. This implied that 5% and 23% are factors outside foreign reserve that are responsible for economic growth. This study recommends that the leaders of the two countries under consideration should pay more attention to developmental policy that will lead to accumulation of reserve, since it enhanced economic growth and currency stability of the two countries.

Effect of Macroeconomic Variables on Economic Growth in Nigeria

The study examined the effect of macro-economic variables on economic growth in Nigeria between 1990-2022. Specifically, the paper examined the effect of Exchange rate on Economic growth in Nigeria and determined the effect of interest rate on Economic growth in Nigeria. The paper employed ex-facto research design, using secondary data and adopted SVAR model. The paper found out that interest rate has a significant effect on Economic growth (RGDP) in Nigeria, and found that exchange rate has a significant effect on Economic growth (RGDP) in Nigeria. The study concluded that macroeconomic variables has a significant effect on Economic growth in Nigeria. Based on the study’s findings and conclusions above, the following recommendations were made: the government should improve on her foreign reserves as an absolute measure that will stabilize exchange rate to boost economic environment for effective investment to thrive and contribute to gross domestic product in Nigeria, and interest rate is found to have increased the potentials of Economic growth in Nigeria. It is therefore important to note that since interest rate have significantly affected the Economic growth in Nigeria, the CBN should improve on discount rate to stabilize interest rate to boost economic environment for effective investment to thrive and contribute to gross domestic product in Nigeria.

Impact of Agricultural Financing on Poverty Reduction and Economic Growth in Nigeria

Impact of Agricultural Financing on Poverty Reduction and Economic Growth in Nigeria

Modelling the Dynamics of Exchange Rates and GDP in Nigeria: A Single Equation Error Correction Model (ECM) Analysis

This study eval_uates the effect of exchange rates on Nigeria's economic growth between 1990 and 2020 was examined. The exchange rate was limited to the nominal exchange rate, and real gross domestic product was used as a proxy for the growth of the economy. Secondary data were collected from the Central Bank of Nigeria statistical bulletin for the period of the study. The OLS regression and Granger Causality test were used for analysis in the study. The findings demonstrated that one of the two explanatory variables, exchange rate, has a substantial significant effect on economic growth. The causality test also showed that there is two-way causality between exchange rate and the economic growth. The study concludes that increase when there is increase in exchange rate, the economic growth (GDP) will increase in Nigeria since exchange rate is and essential and significant predictor of economic growth.

A FMKL-GLD Quantile Method for Estimating Economic Growth in Nigeria in the Presence of Multicollinearity and Outlier

Nigeria’s economic growth posed to be a serious concern to policymakers, economics and scholars due to the challenges of economic characteristics, consequences and contradictions. Despite the effort made by the Central Bank of Nigeria in implementing several policies such as tightening of monetary policy rate and heavy borrowing for infrastructural development to stimulate economic growth in the past few years. The economic growth in Nigeria between 1999-2007 was 6.95 percent, between 2008-2010, it was stood 7.98 percent and it was 4.80 percent between 2011-2015 and from 2016 till day the economic growth stood at 0.81 percent. In this study, we estimate parameters to determine Nigerian economic growth in the presence of multicollinearity and outliers. We employed the FMKL-GLD quantile model to quarterly data from 1986 to 2021 obtained from the Central Bank of Nigeria. Exploratory data analysis (EDA) and diagnostic test carried out ascertained the presence of multicollinearity and outlier. However, it was discovered that in model that INDT, RINR, REXR and OPEN contributed positively to the economic growth to the turn of 0.15%, 0.24%, 0.06% and 1.76% while, it was revealed that EXDT contributed negatively to the economic growth in Nigeria thus, reduced economic growth by 0.02% and as such showed the tendency and potential macroeconomic variables under study as a veritable determinant of economic growth. The location, scale and space parameters , , , and for the fitted FMKL-GLD model were -0.0253, 34.1488 -0.3303, and -0.5758. Therefore, it can be concluded based on the location, scale and space parameters from FMKL-FGLD and GLD Q,Q plots as well as the estimated parameter of RGDP, FMKL-FGLD was the best model that described the economic situation in Nigeria by showing that economy was growing in retrogressive direction and the need for drastic effort and strong willed to curtail the situation. To achieve this, the adoption of economic openness to the development and the growth of economy in Nigeria is a veritable policy direction that must be strictly followed.

The Empirical Assessment of Renewable Energy Consumption, CO2 Emissions and Economic Growth of Nigeria

The Empirical Assessment of Renewable Energy Consumption, CO2 Emissions and Economic Growth of Nigeria

The asymmetric effect of fiscal deficits on macroeconomic stability in Nigeria: evidence from nonlinear autoregressive distributed lag (NARDL)

PurposeThe paper examines the asymmetric effects of fiscal deficits on selected macroeconomic variables in Nigeria, which include economic growth, exchange rates and inflation. The existing works of literature are premised on symmetry assumptions with dichotomous findings. In such situations, they suggest using a nonlinear approach as an alternative to checkmate the findings premised on linearity. This is critical, considering the perpetual fiscal deficit trends of Nigeria, which are considered a major economic problem in the country.Design/methodology/approachThe study employs nonlinear autoregressive distributed lag (NARDL) estimator using secondary data collected from the statistical bulletin of the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN).FindingsThe results show that in the short run, both positive and negative shocks to the fiscal deficit have no effect on Nigeria's economic growth. The same is found on the negative shocks in the long run. However, positive shocks to the fiscal deficit have a long-run positive impact on economic growth. It is further revealed that, in the short run, positive shocks as well as negative shocks to fiscal deficits are positively related to the inflation rate. More so, long-run estimates show that positive shocks to the fiscal deficit have negative impacts on inflation, while negative shocks to the fiscal deficit have positive impacts on inflation.Originality/valueThis study introduces novelties to the understanding of the relationship between fiscal deficits and macroeconomic stability in Nigeria. It accounts for asymmetric and nonlinear features that are more aligned with the socioeconomic realities of real-world phenomena. This study also offers more insightful policy perspectives to enhance the fiscal profile of the country.

Domestic debt, public spending and economic growth in Nigeria: a mediation analysis

Domestic debt, public spending and economic growth in Nigeria: a mediation analysis

Impact of Overseas Development Assistance on Economic Growth in Nigeria (1981-2021)

Nigeria currently has the largest economy in Africa with a GDP of $477.38 billion (Michael, 2023). However, the country’s great fortune, which is majorly driven by petroleum exports, has not successfully translated into a sustained economic development, as the nation continues to endure widespread poverty and income inequality for decades due to many contributing factors, including rapid population growth, low standard of education, and corruption. Consequently, Nigeria has looked to Overseas Development Assistance (ODA) as one of many means to address its economic problems, and this ODA phenomenon has raised debates among scholars with regards to its positive or negative impact, and the significance of such impact on the Nigerian Economy. This study investigated the amount of ODA received by Nigeria for the period 1981-2021, and the changes that such assistance has effected on the GDP of the nation. The study examined the empirical research by other scholars, for the same study, under a spectrum of economic, geographic and political climates. The Auto Regressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) Bounds Cointegration Test and the Granger Causality test were adopted for this study, and the results revealed that ODA impacted Nigeria’s GDP significantly and positively in the period of study. This study therefore recommends that the Federal Government of Nigeria, as well as other stakeholders, should pursue and maintain more favourable relationships with the international multilateral and bilateral donors, in order to boost economic growth in Nigeria.

Economic growth in Nigeria: Effect of taxation and unemployment

Economic growth in Nigeria: Effect of taxation and unemployment