Newmark Displacement Research Articles

지하수위 변화에 따른 지진 유발 산사태의 취약섬 분석

최근 들어 우리나라에서도 지진의 발생빈도가 증가함에 따라 지진관련 재해에 대한 관심이 증가하고 있다. 특히 지진의 발생빈도가 증가함에 따라 지진에 의해 유발되는 산사태의 발생 가능성에 대한 연구의 필요성이 제기되고 있다. 최근 필리핀 레이테섬 산사태의 경우처럼 집중강우에 의해 포화된 사변에서는 소규모의 지진에 의해서도 대규모의 산사태가 유발될 수 있다는 사실이 밝혀짐에 따라 소규모 지진의 발생빈도가 증가하고 있는 우리나라에서도 지진에 의한 산사태의 발생 가능성이 제기되고 있다. 따라서 본 연구에서는 강우에 의해 지하수위가 상승하여 포화된 지반 조건에서 소규모 지진에 의해 유발될 수 있는 산사태의 가능성에 대한 분석을 수행하고자 하였다. 이를 위하여 국내의 지질 및 지형특성을 고려할 수 있는 Newmark displacement model을 해석모델로 선정하고 GIS 분석기법을 활용하여 연구대상지역에 대한 산사태 취약성 분석을 실시하였다. 연구 수행을 위하여 수치지형도와 지질도 등을 이용, 사변의 기하학적 특성과 지질공학적 특성에 대해 커버리지 형태인 10 m <TEX>${\times}$</TEX> 10 m 크기 격자(grid) 형태의 주제도를 작성하였으며 이를 지진특성에 의해 결정되는 Arias intensity와 임계가속도와 결합하여 Newmark 변위를 계산하였다. 본 연구에서는 특히 2007년 l윌 연구지역 주변에서 발생한 규모 4.8의 지진에 대하여 지진에 의해 유발되는 산사태의 취약성을 분석하였으며 지반의 포화정도가 취약성에 미치는 영향을 분석하기 위하여 지하수위를 변동시켜가며 분석을 수행하였다. 또한 지진의 규모와 진앙까지의 거리가 산사태의 취약성 해석결과에 미치는 영향을 파악하기 위하여 3.0 - 4.0 규모의 지진이 연구지역 내의 다양한 위치에서 발생하는 것을 가정하였으며 집중강우에 의해 지반에 포화된 상황을 고려하기 위해 지하수위를 변동시켜가며 산사태의 취약성을 분석하였다. Since the frequency of the earthquake occurrence in Korean peninsular is continuously increasing, the possibility that massive landslides are triggered by earthquake is also growing in Korea. Previously, the landslide is known to be induced by large magnitude earthquake, whose magnitude is larger than 6.0. However, the landslide can be induced by only small magnitude earthquake, especially in the fully saturated soil. Therefore, the susceptibility of landslide caused by small magnitude earthquake in fully saturated soil is analyzed in this study. For that, the topographical and geological characteristics of the site were obtained and managed by GIS software. In the procedure of the study, slope angle, cohesion, friction angle, unit weight of soil were obtained and constructed as a spatial database layer. Combining these data sets in a dynamic model based on Newmark's displacement analysis, the landslide displacements were estimated in each grid cell. In order to check out the possibility of the earthquake induced landslides, the level of the groundwater table is varied from dry to 80% saturated soil. In addition, in order to analyze the effect of the magnitude of earthquake and distance to epicenter, four different earthquakes epicenters were considered in the study area.

Influence of Bedrock Inclination on Seismic Slope Stability Based on Seismic Data of Iran

In this paper, the effect of bedrock inclination on seismic performance of slopes is investigated. The study was conducted based on dynamic analysis of different slopes, evaluation of the earthquake acceleration in sliding mass, and calculating the permanent displacement of the slope, using Newmark sliding block. The investigation indicates that variation of the bedrock inclination, which results in a change in the predominant period of the slope (Ts), in conditions that the mean period of the time history of the acceleration on critical sliding surface (Tmt) and Ts are close to each other, causes the variation of the acceleration magnitude and the Newmark displacement in the sliding mass and they may reach to their maximum level. Typical results are presented and discussed. A two dimensional model of a typical slope was considered and conducting dynamic analyses, the slope performance was studied for different geometries, strength parameters and shear wave velocities. Such a performance has been studied by assessing the record of acceleration in sliding mass (the mass above the critical sliding surface) and calculating the slope displacement using Newmark method. It is shown that neglecting the effect of bedrock inclination, would lead to non-real results in assessing the seismic slope performance.

Evaluation model of landslide hazards induced by the 2008 Wenchuan earthquake using strong motion data

Landslides induced by the 2008 Wenchuan earthquake in the Longmenshan area were relatively well instrumented, which makes it possible to investigate the landslides using ground motion records. Firstly, this paper analyzes the data from Wenchuan earthquake on both regional and local site scale. The analyses show that the Newmark accumulative displacement calculated from the ground motion recorded in a particular geological hazard zone corresponds to the hazard intensity in that zone; the larger the displacement, the more serious the geologic hazard. The calculated result also shows that the displacement is related to the Arias intensity, which represents the total energy released during the earthquake at the observation site. Secondly, this paper constructs an evaluation model of Newmark displacement calculated with Arias intensities to estimate the subsequent slope failure resulting from the earthquake. The calculated results based on the model fit well with the distribution of actual landslides, suggesting that this method is useful for hazard evaluation. Therefore, this type of model can be used for estimating regional-scale distribution of earthquake-induced landslides and their associated hazards immediately after an earthquake.

A new empirical estimator of coseismic landslide displacement for Zagros Mountain region (Iran)

Earthquake-induced landslides are responsible worldwide for significant socioeconomic losses and historically have a prominent position in the list of natural hazards affecting the Iran plateau. As a step toward the development of tools for the assessment and the management of this kind of hazard at regional scale, an empirical estimator of coseismic displacements along potential sliding surfaces was obtained through a regression analysis for the Zagros region, a mountainous Iranian region subjected to earthquake-induced landslides. This estimator, based on the Newmark’s model, allows to evaluate the expected permanent displacement (named “Newmark displacement”) induced by seismic shaking of defined energy on potential sliding surface characterized by a given critical acceleration. To produce regression models for Newmark displacement estimators, a data set was constructed for different critical acceleration values on the basis of 108 accelerometric recordings from 80 Iranian earthquakes with moment magnitudes between 3.6 and 7. The empirical estimator has a general form, proposed by Jibson (Eng Geol 91:209–218, 2007), relating Newmark displacement to Arias intensity (as parameter representing the energy of the seismic forces) and to critical acceleration (as parameter representing the dynamic shear resistance of the sliding mass). As an example of application, this relation was employed to provide a basic document for earthquake-induced landslide hazard assessment at regional scale, according to a method proposed by Del Gaudio et al. (Bull Seismol Soc Am 93:557–569, 2003), applied to the whole Iranian territory, including Zagros region. This method consists in evaluating the shear resistance required to slopes to limit the occurrence of seismically induced failures, on the basis of the Newmark’s model. The obtained results show that the exposure to landslide seismic induction is maximum in the Alborz Mountains region, where critical accelerations up to ~0.1 g are required to limit the probability of seismic triggering of coherent type landslides within 10% in 50 years.

Regional Hazard Assessment of Earthquake-Triggered Slope Instabilities Considering Site Effects and Seismic Scenarios in Lorca Basin (Spain)

We present a regional hazard assessment of earthquake-triggered slope instabilities based on specific seismic scenarios and taking into account soil and topographic amplification effects. We followed Newmark's sliding rigid-block methodology implemented in a geographic information system (GIS) with the aim of producing regional maps in terms of critical acceleration and Newmark displacements for selected seismic scenarios. Strong ground-motion amplification site effects have been considered, particularly the topographic factor, by means of designing a GIS tool based on terrain geometry features and Eurocode-8 provisions. Three different concepts of seismic scenarios are considered in this work: probabilistic, pseudo-probabilistic, and deterministic. The study area is the Lorca Basin, located in the Eastern Betic Cordillera, one of the most seismically active regions of southeast Spain. The obtained Newmark displacement maps are compared to the distribution of known slope instabilities in the area. Future seismically induced slope instabilities in the Lorca Basin appear to be limited to isolated rock slides and rockfalls. Only the deterministic scenario (Mw >6.7) seems capable of producing widespread slope instabilities, mainly rock slides, rockfalls, and landslides.

Applicability of Newmark method at regional, sub-regional and site scales: seismically induced Bullas and La Paca rock-slide cases (Murcia, SE Spain)

In this paper, the applicability of the Newmark method at regional, sub-regional and site scales has been investigated in the Lorca Basin (Murcia). This basin is located in one of the most seismically active regions of Spain. The area is very interesting for studying earthquake-induced slope instabilities as there are well-known cases associated with specific earthquakes. For the regional and sub-regional scales, a geographic information system has been used to develop an implementation of Newmark sliding rigid block method. Soil and topographic amplification effects have been particularly considered. Subsequently, ‘Newmark displacement’ maps for deterministic seismic scenarios have been produced. Some specific studies have also been performed using limit equilibrium methods to estimate the safety factor and the critical acceleration of certain slope instabilities at a site scale. These instabilities were the rock slides related to recent seismic series at the Lorca Basin: 2002 Bullas (M w = 5.0) and 2005 La Paca (M w = 4.8). Finally, the safety factor, critical acceleration and Newmark displacement values estimated at different scales have been compared to determine which scale is most suitable for the Newmark method.

Empirical estimation of the Newmark displacement from the Arias intensity and critical acceleration

This study employs strong-motion data from the 1999 Chi-Chi earthquake, the 1999 Kocaeli earthquake, the 1999 Duzce earthquake, the 1995 Kobe earthquake, the 1994 Northridge earthquake and the 1989 Loma Prieta earthquake to refine the relationship among critical acceleration ( A c ), Arias intensity ( I a ), and Newmark displacement ( D n ). The results reveal that, as expected, log D n is proportional to log I a when A c is large. As A c gets smaller however, the linearity becomes less. We also found that log D n is proportional to A c , and that the linearity is very stable through all I a values. These features are common to all six sets of data. Therefore, we add a third term in addition to the Jibson's form which covers the aforementioned problem, and propose a new form for the relationship among I a , A c and D n . Two alternative forms were tested using each of the six data sets, before a final form was selected. The final analyses grouped the data into a worldwide data set and a Taiwanese data set. Coefficients for the selected form were derived from regression with the data, and two final empirical formulas, one for global, the other for local, proposed. Site conditions are also considered in this study with empirical formulas being developed for soil and rock sites, respectively. The estimation error is smaller and the goodness of fit is higher for both the local soil-site and rock-site formulas. Since landslides are more likely to occur on hillsides, the rock site formula may be more applicable for the landslide cases, whereas the soil site formula should be used for side slope of landfills.

Estimating slope failure potential in an earthquake prone area: a case study at Skolis Mountain, NW Peloponnesus, Greece

One of the most important issues in the evaluation of geological hazards is the delineation of landslide prone areas and the estimation of the slope failure potential. In this study, the GIS-based Newmark’s displacement method was applied for the first time in Greece, in order to compute the permanent displacement values and evaluate the slope failure potential in the area of the Skolis mountain in NW Peloponnesus, Greece. The resulting maps were validated using the distribution of secondary effects triggered by the 8 June 2008 earthquake. The study indicated that as the source areas of the rock falls were delineated by the Newmark displacement method, this may be a useful approach to predict earthquake-induced slope failures when the seismic potential of an area has been previously evaluated.

A methodology to select seismic coefficients based on upper bound “Newmark” displacements using earthquake records from Turkey

Strong motion records taken during earthquakes in Turkey are used to calculate Newmark displacements in slopes. These displacements are then utilized in developing a novel displacement-based methodology to select the seismic coefficient which is used to calculate pseudostatic safety factor. In the first step of the study, calculated Newmark displacements are evaluated in three different categories which are as follows: using all data, using data for different earthquake magnitude ( M) ranges with and without distance constraint and using data for different peak acceleration ( a max) ranges. For all categories, different equations are obtained to assign slope displacements as a function of the ratio of yield acceleration to peak acceleration. The results show that categorization of data is an important issue, because the displacements are earthquake magnitude and peak acceleration dependent. In the second step, equations obtained for different peak acceleration ranges are used to propose charts linking upper bound slope displacements ( D), seismic coefficients ( k h ) and pseudostatic safety factors (PSF), which are three important parameters of a pseudostatic approach. This enables the k h values be chosen based on the allowable displacements, instead of the current applications based on judgement and expertise. The results show that k h values for any allowable displacement should be based on anticipated a max values, while use of high PSF values results in lower displacements. Extensive comparison with solutions from the literature is also made. The methodology is best suited for earthquake triggered shallow landslides in natural slopes, consisting of materials which do not lose strength during dynamic loading.

Probabilistic seismic hazard assessment in Greece – Part 1: Engineering ground motion parameters

Abstract. Seismic hazard assessment represents a basic tool for rational planning and designing in seismic prone areas. In the present study, a probabilistic seismic hazard assessment in terms of peak ground acceleration, peak ground velocity, Arias intensity and cumulative absolute velocity computed with a 0.05 g acceleration threshold, has been carried out for Greece. The output of the hazard computation produced probabilistic hazard maps for all the above parameters estimated for a fixed return period of 475 years. From these maps the estimated values are reported for 52 Greek municipalities. Additionally, we have obtained a set of probabilistic maps of engineering significance: a probabilistic macroseismic intensity map, depicting the Modified Mercalli Intensity scale obtained from the estimated peak ground velocity and a probabilistic seismic-landslide map based on a simplified conversion of the estimated Arias intensity and peak ground acceleration into Newmark's displacement.

Toward a Comprehensive Areal Model of Earthquake-Induced Landslides

This paper provides a review of regional-scale modeling of earthquake-induced landslide hazard with respect to the needs for disaster risk reduction and sustainable development. Based on this review, it sets out important research themes and suggests computing with words (CW), a methodology that includes fuzzy logic systems, as a fruitful modeling methodology for addressing many of these research themes. A range of research, reviewed here, has been conducted applying CW to various aspects of earthquake-induced landslide hazard zonation, but none facilitate comprehensive modeling of all types of earthquake-induced landslides. A new comprehensive areal model of earthquake-induced landslides (CAMEL) is introduced here that was developed using fuzzy logic systems. CAMEL provides an integrated framework for modeling all types of earthquake-induced landslides using geographic information systems. CAMEL is designed to facilitate quantitative and qualitative representation of terrain conditions and knowledge about these conditions on the likely areal concentration of each landslide type. CAMEL is highly modifiable and adaptable; new knowledge can be easily added, while existing knowledge can be changed to better match local knowledge and conditions. As such, CAMEL should not be viewed as a complete alternative to other earthquake-induced landslide models. CAMEL provides an open framework for incorporating other models, such as Newmark's displacement method, together with previously incompatible empirical and local knowledge.

Incorporating the effects of topographic amplification and sliding areas in the modeling of earthquake-induced landslide hazards, using the cumulative displacement method

A procedure that considers topographic effects and runout behavior is proposed for analyzing seismic landslide hazards. The theoretical topographic amplification factors and corresponding amplified ground motion are calculated. By using the amplified motion, a cumulative displacement map is generated through the Newmark's displacement method. The high displacement areas are defined as the source areas of landslides. A runout simulation that identifies sliding routes and the final deposition areas of the sliding material from these source areas is performed. Finally, the complete set of landslide zones, including source, and sliding and deposition areas, is predicted. The landslide hazard maps of the Mt. Baishiya region, Nantou, Taiwan are evaluated, and the maps of actual landslides triggered by the September 21st, 1999, Chi-Chi earthquake are compared with the prediction. The results show that the proposed procedure, which combines topographic effects and runout simulation, can generate more accurate predictions for seismic landslide hazard analysis. However, this slight improvement over the procedure that only considers topographic effects is within the uncertainty levels of the input parameters. This slight improvement is obtained by a relatively complex and time-consuming procedure, and further research is required towards evaluating the viability of the proposed model when topographic effects cannot be neglected.

Estimating location and size of historical earthquake by combining archaeology and geology in Umm-El-Qanatir, Dead Sea Transform

We study the Byzantine-to-Ummayad (6th–8th century) archaeological site of Umm-El-Qanatir, located 10 km east of the Dead Sea Transform (DST) in northern Israel. The site was damaged by an earthquake-induced landslide, and in this work we use slope stability analysis to constrain the historical seismic acceleration that occurred along the northern segment of the DST. Umm-El-Qanatir archaeological site is located on a slope of a canyon and contains evidence for earthquake-related damage, including fallen columns and walls, horizontal shift of heavy masonry blocks, and complete burial of ceramic pots and farming tools beneath fallen ceilings. A water pool that collected spring water is displaced nearly one meter by the landslide. The artifacts from the village and the spring area indicate that people inhabited the site until the middle of the 8th century. We argue that the destruction, which forced the abandonment of Umm-El-Qanatir together with nearby settlements, was associated with the earthquake of January 18, 749 CE. In order to evaluate the ground acceleration related to the above earthquake, we back-analyze the stability of a failed slope, which cut and displaced the water-pool, using slope stability software (Slope/W). The results show that the slope is statically stable and that high values of horizontal seismic acceleration (>0.3 g) are required to induce slope failure. Subsequently, we use the Newmark displacement method to calculate the earthquake magnitude needed to cause the slope failure as a function of distance from the site. The results (attributed to the 749 CE earthquake) show that a MW > 7.0 earthquake up to 25 km from the site could have induced the studied landslide.

Evaluation of CAMEL — comprehensive areal model of earthquake-induced landslides

A new comprehensive areal model of earthquake-induced landslides (CAMEL) has been developed to assist in planning decisions related to disaster risk reduction. CAMEL provides an integrated framework for modeling all types of earthquake-induced landslides using fuzzy logic systems and geographic information systems. CAMEL is designed to facilitate quantitative and qualitative representation of terrain conditions and knowledge about these conditions on the likely areal concentration of each landslide type. CAMEL has been empirically evaluated with respect to disrupted landslides (Category I) using a case study of the 1989 M = 6.9 Loma Prieta, CA earthquake. In this case, CAMEL performs best in comparison to disrupted slides and falls in soil. For disrupted rock fall and slides, CAMEL's performance was slightly poorer. The model predicted a low occurrence of rock avalanches, when none in fact occurred. A similar comparison with the Loma Prieta case study was also conducted using a simplified Newmark displacement model. The area under the curve method of evaluation was used in order to draw comparisons between both models, revealing improved performance with CAMEL. CAMEL should not however be viewed as a strict alternative to Newmark displacement models. CAMEL can be used to integrate Newmark displacements with other, previously incompatible, types of knowledge.

Probabilistic modeling of seismically triggered landslides using Monte Carlo simulations

The 2004 Chuetsu earthquakes of Niigata (Japan) triggered numerous landslides, and the most widespread types of landslides were highly disrupted, relatively shallow slides and soil (debris) flows. This paper presented a method to evaluate slope instability using Newmark displacement on a pixel-by-pixel basis in a given area. The proposed method was able to integrate Newmark displacement modeling and Monte Carlo simulations within geographical information systems. In the modeling, an empirical attenuation relationship was utilized to calculate Arias intensity over this study area, and the variability of geotechnical parameters was taken into account to calculate coseismic landslide displacement. Before deriving the displacement from related inputs, the Monte Carlo simulations ran 1,500 times and generated 1,500 displacement values for each grid cell, and then means and standard deviations of displacement were calculated and probabilistic distributions can be obtained. Finally, given 10 cm as a threshold value of displacement, estimated probabilities of displacement exceeding 10 cm were shown as a map of seismic landslide hazards. The resulting hazard map was classified into four categories from very low to high level.

Effects of seismic anisotropy and geological characteristics on the kinematics of the neighboring Jiufengershan and Hungtsaiping landslides during Chi-Chi earthquake

The Chi-Chi earthquake (Mw = 7.6) of September 21, 1999 triggered many landslides in central Taiwan. Two of these landslides, Hungtsaiping (HTP) and Jiufengershan (JFES) were situated as close as 2 km from each other but had significant differences in their kinematics. JFES landslide was a catastrophic rockslide-avalanche and the HTP landslide was relatively slow-moving. The authors conducted a study to explore the reasons for such differences. Factors such as the characteristics of strong ground motion, sliding direction of landslide, and friction angle of the sliding surface were considered in the study. An analysis of 12 strong-motion records collected in the study area showed that the distribution of horizontal pseudostatic coefficients, earthquake energy ratio and permanent sliding-block displacements (Newmark displacement) were anisotropic with their predominant direction mostly in the E/W–ESE/WNW trending. This direction is perpendicular to the axis of the main geological structures of the studied area. The computed Newmark displacement in the sliding direction of the JFES landslide is larger (44%) than that of the HTP landslide with sliding surface inclination of 21° and friction angle of 28° We can conclude that the seismic anisotropy and the corresponding sliding direction are important contributing factors to the kinematics of studied landslides. The back-calculated friction angle of the sliding surface that corresponds to a critical Newmark displacement for the JFES landslide is about 3.5° higher than that of HTP landslide. The material (colluvium) on the sliding surface in HTP should be less velocity-dependent than that of the JFES landslide (rock) according to the back calculations. The importance of seismic anisotropy, sliding direction, and mechanical properties of sliding surface on the kinematics of deep-seated landslides is demonstrated.

The geotechnical effects of long human habitation (2000< years): Earthquake induced landslide hazard in the city of Zefat, northern Israel

This work studies the effects of long human habitation on site geotechnical conditions. It is focused on the city of Zefat that is located on the borders of the Dead Sea Transform in northern Israel. The city of Zefat, suffered severe damage and loss of life in historical earthquakes, as a consequence of earthquake induced landslides (EILS). In this work we evaluate the current EILS hazard for the city of Zefat using a GIS-based regional Newmark analysis, with calibration of the calculated Newmark displacement (representing EILS hazard) using maps of field evidence and historical documents testifying to slope instability that occurred in historical earthquakes. We found that the core city of Zefat is built on a layered anthropogenic material, few meters deep which, was deposited as a result of more than 2000 years of human habitation. The anthropogenic material is mechanically weak, susceptible to slope failure and to amplification of seismic-shaking. It is responsible for the city's devastation in historical earthquakes and it is the source for the current high seismic hazard as well. Our model shows that earthquakes of magnitudes ( M w) 5, 6 and 7 at distances of up to 10 km, 50 km and more than 100 km, respectively, are likely to induce landslides in the core city of Zefat. The current engineering status of the city is poor, and as a consequence severe damage and loss of life are expected in future earthquakes due to EILS, unless major engineering efforts are made. Cities in the Eastern Mediterranean with comparable long habitation histories (e.g., Jerusalem, Tiberias, Nablus, Amman) are expected to have similar geotechnical problems in their old sections and are advised to take appropriate engineering steps to reduce damage and loss of life in future earthquakes. Evaluation of historical earthquake magnitudes based on reported local-damage may, however, lead to overestimated magnitudes where the damaged sites are built on anthropogenic talus (a common setting in the vicinity of the Dead Sea Transform).

Regression models for estimating coseismic landslide displacement

Newmark's sliding-block model is widely used to estimate coseismic slope performance. Early efforts to develop simple regression models to estimate Newmark displacement were based on analysis of the small number of strong-motion records then available. The current availability of a much larger set of strong-motion records dictates that these regression equations be updated. Regression equations were generated using data derived from a collection of 2270 strong-motion records from 30 worldwide earthquakes. The regression equations predict Newmark displacement in terms of (1) critical acceleration ratio, (2) critical acceleration ratio and earthquake magnitude, (3) Arias intensity and critical acceleration, and (4) Arias intensity and critical acceleration ratio. These equations are well constrained and fit the data well (71%bR 2 b88%), but they have standard deviations of about 0.5 log units, such that the range defined by the mean±one standard deviation spans about an order of magnitude. These regression models, therefore, are not recommended for use in site-specific design, but rather for regional-scale seismic landslide hazard mapping or for rapid preliminary screening of sites. © 2007 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Selection of ground motion time series and limits on scaling

A procedure to select time series for use in non-linear analyses that are intended to result in an average response of the non-linear system is proposed that is not based simply on magnitude, distance, and spectral shape. A simple model of a yielding system is used as a proxy for the non-linear behavior of a more complicated yielding system. As an example, Newmark displacements are used as a proxy for more complex slope-stability models. The candidate scaled time series are evaluated to find those that yield a response of the simple non-linear system that is near the expected response for the design event. Those scaled time series with responses near the expected value are selected as the optimum time series for defining average response even if the scale factors are larger than commonly accepted (e.g. scale factors >factor of 2).

Effects of Digital Elevation Model Errors on Spatially Distributed Seismic Slope Stability Calculations: An Example from Seattle, Washington

More than 1,600 centimeter-accurate differential GPS measurements show that elevation errors in a 10-m digital elevation model (DEM) covering an 18-km 2 portion of Seattle can have significant effects on calculated values of slope angle, static factor of safety, Newmark acceleration, and slope displacement. Declustered error data from the study area have a mean of ! 0.92 m and a standard deviation of 62.36 m, comparable to results reported by others. Conditional Gaussian simulation and normal score back-transformation were used to create 25 error realizations with the same statistical distribution and spatial correlation as the measured errors, and the error realizations were subsequently used to create elevation, slope angle, static factor of safety, Newmark acceleration, and displacement realizations. The maximum slope angle uncertainty magnitude decreases frommorethan108toabout48asslopeangleincreases, but the minimum slope angle uncertainty varies between 618 and 628 regardless of slope angle. Typical slope angle standard deviations arising from DEM errors are in the range of 638 to 648. The resulting uncertainties in calculated Newmark displacements as the consequence of a hypothetical large earthquake affecting the study area (Arias intensity of 4 m/s) are in most cases less than 63 cm, but some values are greater than 610 cm. If the acceptable maximum probability of misclassifying a potentially unstable area as stable is decreased from 50 to 5 percent, incorporation of displacement uncertainty into the calculusofhazardincreasesfrom0.6to4.1percentthe portion of the study area that may be susceptible to landsliding as a result of the hypothetical earthquake.