Newly Industrializing Economies Research Articles

International Dependency and Economic Fluctuations in East Asian NIEs

This paper investigates the sources of economic fluctuations in the four Asian newly industrialized economies (NIEs), namely Hong Kong, Republic of Korea, Singapore and Taiwan. As small open economies, their macro-economic development is highly dependent on technology as well as markets of large countries. Using the common trends model, we examine the impacts of external supply shock, internal supply shock and trade shock on the key national macro-economic variables of these four economies, i.e. output, consumption, investment, export and import. Our empirical evidence suggests that supply-side disturbances, both the country-specific supply shocks and international supply shocks explain the bulk of fluctuations in output.

Intergenerational Income Mobility in Singapore

Abstract Research on intergenerational earnings mobility in less developed economies is lacking. This paper investigates the case of Singapore, a newly-industrialized economy in Asia. Interval regressions are employed because of grouped dependent variables. Instrumental variables address problems of respondent errors and unobserved permanent income. Still, the estimated intergenerational elasticity of between 0.23 and 0.28 is probably under-estimated because the study uses a survey of young respondents who reported contemporaneous incomes of parents. Transformation of the estimates using scales in recent comparative studies indicates that intergenerational earnings mobility in Singapore may be moderately low when compared internationally. Education as a means through which parents invest in their children's future earnings appears important. There are some small independent returns from schooling. Mobility does not appear to differ by ethnicity, sex or income. These findings have important implications for equity, development and policy in Singapore, which has rising income disparity, a maturing economy, and an educational system which is increasingly privately run.

Measuring the Miracle: Market Imperfections and Asia's Growth Experience

The newly industrialized economies (NIEs) of Asia are the fastest-growing economies in the world since 1960. A clear understanding of their rapid development remains elusive, with continuing disputes over the roles of technology growth, capital accumulation, and international trade and investment. We reconcile seemingly contradictory explanations by accounting for imperfections in output and capital markets. For instance, in Singapore, growth-accounting studies using quantities (the primal approach) find rising capital-output ratios and a constant labor share; but studies using real factor prices (the dual approach) find a constant user cost. We provide evidence that favored firms reaped economic profits and received preferential tax treatment, subsidies, and access to capital - market imperfections that are difficult to capture when implementing the dual approach. Further, declining pure profits can reconcile the constant or rising labor shares in revenue in the NIEs with theories of international trade that predict falling labor shares in cost. We provide empirical support for the quantitative importance of profits and heterogeneous user costs, describe the two-sector dynamics, and derive measures of technology growth, corrected for the imperfections that we quantify. We then discuss implications for broader disputes about Asian development.

China's Energy Security with Special Reference to Japan

This paper analyzes both global and regional approaches to solving problems of energy security and ecological imbalance by addressing specifically the problems of China's energy security. PRC's growing energy dependence has become a major concern for both economic and national security policymakers in that country. The ambitious goal of modernization of the economy along the lines of the other newly industrialized economies (NIEs) of Asia has succeeded only too well, and it is difficult to reorient economic priorities. If examined rigorously, such an economic strategic assumption can be seen to entail the goal of creating further technological capabilities. In particular, China seems to be firmly committed to the creation of a largely self-sustaining innovation system as part of a knowledge-based economy of the future. Such innovation systems, called positive feedback loop innovation systems or POLIS have been created by advanced countries, and NIEs such as South Korea and Taiwan are proceeding to create these as well. But this will add to its energy burden and further dependence on the US as the power which controls the key sea lanes. Only a strategic reorientation to building a self-sustaining POLIS and appropriate regional cooperation institutions can lead to the way out of the current dilemma for China. However, time is of the essence. Given the path dependence of development unless strategic disengagement from the existing path followed by a strategic engagement with the alternative strategy is begun within the next five years, it may well be too late. The stakes are indeed very high. A more detailed strategy paper based on the key ideas from the alternative strategy outlined here with concrete quantitative scenarios and feasibility studies along the lines of models sketched in the appendix (and other, more detailed models) will go some distance towards giving the appropriate analytical foundations for the policy makers. The preliminary results confirm the predictions regarding fossil fuel-based energy shortage and lead towards a serious consideration of alternative energy sources. Achieving the twin goals of energy security and ecological balance are challenging but not impossible for China. Serious policy research can be used effectively if there is the political will to do so. The goal of regional cooperation is also achievable if patient negotiations in good faith can start in earnest. In particular, cooperation with other Asian economies, particularly Japan, Indonesia, Viet Nam and India will be crucial. This paper has sketched out some of the complexities of cooperation and conflict between China and Japan. Future work will address the problems of Regional cooperation for China in the East, South and South Asian context as well as in the context of Africa and Latin America.

FDI by firms from newly industrialised economies in emerging markets: corporate governance, entry mode and location

Previous studies emphasise that the foreign direct investment (FDI) strategies of firms from newly industrialised economies (NIEs) are different from the FDI strategies of firms from developed economies. It has also been shown that NIE firms are often controlled by founding families who make key strategic decisions, and that they rely heavily on network linkages when developing their FDI strategies. What is less clear, however, is how the corporate governance factors in NIEs, the risk preferences of the main shareholder constituencies, and the network-based business culture affect the decision to undertake FDI in emerging markets. This paper explores the entry mode and location choices of firms from an Asian NIE (Taiwan) in an emerging market (the People's Republic of China). It shows that the choice of equity stake in an affiliate depends upon the extent of family and institutional share ownerships in the parent company. High-commitment entry is found to be positively associated with the affiliate being located in areas with strong economic, cultural and historic links with the parent company. Furthermore, the entry mode and location decisions appear to be interrelated, with the parent's equity stake in the affiliate depending inter alia upon the location within China, and the favoured location depending inter alia upon the equity stake.

Transitional Economy of Myanmar: Present Status, Developmental Divide, and Future Prospects

I. Introduction Countries undertaking economic reform measures to transform their economies from centrally directed command economies to market-oriented systems came to be referred as transitional economies. The rationale and inspiration for economic reform movements is provided not only by the failure of formerly centrally planned economies (CPEs) to generate growth and sustain development, but also by the success of market-oriented East Asian countries--the newly industrializing economies (NIEs) of Hong Kong, South Korea, Singapore and Taiwan--as well as the next-tier miracles of East and Southeast Asia --Indonesia, Malaysia, and Thailand. The reform process started in Myanmar and Vietnam in the late 1980s, and a little later in Cambodia and Laos. (1) While undertaking economic reforms, first, Vietnam became a member of ASEAN in 1995. Then, Myanmar, along with Laos, became a member of ASEAN in 1997. (2) Cambodia was the last of the so-called CLMV countries to become a member of ASEAN in 1999 to complete ASEAN-10. Ever since then, ASEAN came to be viewed as consisting of two tiers: the more developed ASEAN-6, that is, the founding member nations (Indonesia, Malaysia, the Philippines, Singapore, and Thailand) plus Brunei; and the less developed CLMV countries. This paper will assess the present status of the Myanmar economy in the context of ASEAN developmental divide, and consider its future prospects. The questions, which will be addressed in this paper, are: What institutional and economic reforms, thus far, have been implemented? What have they achieved so far? What are the structural constraints to growth in Myanmar? What are the key issues that still need to be addressed? For a Myanmar citizen, or any citizen in ASEAN member country, these are not merely matters of academic interest. These are matters, which will not only determine the fate of Myanmar, but also the progress of ASEAN Economic Community (AEC). The AEC, it may be recalled, is envisioned to create a single market and a production base characterized by free flow of goods, services, investment, capital and skilled labour by 2020. II. Present Status of the Economy II.1 Economic Growth One of the key indicators of economic performance is the rate at which the economy grows or annual growth of the gross domestic product (GDP). (3) Annual growth of GDP in recent years is shown side by side with the plan targets of the Second Five-Year Short-Term Plan (1996-97 to 2000-2001) and Third Five-Year Short-Term Plan (2001-2002 to 2005-2006) in Table 1. It is worthy of note, that up to 1997-98, estimates of yearly GDP growth rates by international organizations such as ADB, IMF, UNESCAP, and EIU were the same as official estimates by the Government of Myanmar (GOM). Indeed, few doubted that Myanmar's economy was doing well. The high growth rates of over 7 per cent per year achieved during the Four-Year Plan period (1992-93 to 1995-96) were accepted by most as there were plausible reasons behind the achievement. As Myat Thein among others had pointed out, the good performance was made possible by a number of factors; such as private sector development (and especially the tremendous increase in the production and exports of pulses and beans), strong growth in the agricultural sector mainly due to the introduction of double cropping of rice with pump irrigation under summer paddy, a sizeable inflow of FDI following the introduction of Foreign Investment Law, growth of the nascent tourism industry, and a mini-construction sector boom. In other words, the above may be considered as the engines of growth (Myat Thein 2004). According to official data in the third column of Table l, Myanmar has been consistently posting double-digit GDP growth rates since 1999-2000. Unlike in the past, however, the problem with these double-digit GDP growth rates is that few believes them; and more importantly, ordinary Myanmar citizens have little to show for them by way of improvements in their standard of living. …

Can Newly Industrializing Economies Catch Up in the Science-Based Industries? A Study of the Korean Biotechnology Sector

This paper analyzes the Korean biotechnology sector with an analytical framework of National Innovation System (NIS). We examine whether newly industrializing economies (NIEs) can catch up with advanced economies in newly-emerging, knowledge-intensive industries such as biotechnology. We demonstrate that Korea is emerging as a key player in the global biotechnology scene in terms of R&D activities, catching up with other advanced countries, such as Japan, and keeping pace with regional competitors like Taiwan, Singapore and China. While the substantial increase in innovation capabilities lends support to the plausibility of the catching-up view, we also find that improvements and adaptations need to be made in transferring knowledge effectively from public to private sector and in commercializing biotechnology with the institutional support of private funding. Our study highlights the mechanisms by which collective competence of managing knowledge creation and diffusion is facilitated in a developing economy.

Developing the complex system in Korea: the case study of TDX and CDMA telecom system

This paper describes and analyses the successful development and commercialisation of Korean TDX telephone switching technologies and CDMA wireless systems, which were initiated as a national R&D project. We introduce the concept of Complex Product System (CoPS) to identify and describe (a) factors for the successful development of CoPS, such as TDX and CDMA, in Korea, (b) features specific to the development of CoPS in Newly Industrialised Economies (NIE) and finally (c) how the characteristics of Korean innovation system interact with the innovation system of telecommunication systems. We suggest that (1) the capabilities for integration of such agents as, public research institute, manufacturers and users play an important role in achieving successful commercialisation, (2) the development of CDMA systems was made possible by technological path dependency. Finally, we discuss the implications for NIEs that are involved in developing CoPS, pointing out the importance of project planning and managerial capability, coevolution of institutions and technology, as well as the interaction between large-scale and local R&D.

Antecedents of Entrepreneurial Propensity: Findings from Singapore, Hong Kong and Taiwan

The existing literature identifies a number of antecedent factors that positively influence the propensity of individuals to become entrepreneurs. Key among these are self-efficacy, prior knowledge of other entrepreneurs and perception of opportunities. At the same time, policy makers commonly identify fear of failure as a major deterrent factor for entrepreneurs taking the entrepreneurial plunge. This paper examines the relative impacts of these antecedents and deterrent factor on entrepreneurial propensity, defined as the likelihood of starting one’s own business in the three East Asian newly-industrialised economies (NIEs) of Singapore, Hong Kong, and Taiwan. We also test for possible differences in the variables effects on opportunity vs. necessity entrepreneurial propensities. Our findings highlight significant location differences among the variables in the case of overall, opportunity and necessity entrepreneurship. Finally, we discuss the relevant policy implications from our findings.

An Analysis of Home Country Trade Effects of Outward Foreign Direct Investment: The Korean Experience with ASEAN, 1987– 2002

I. Introduction Foreign direct investment (FDI) has long been exercised by multinational enterprises (MNEs) from industrialized countries. However, during the 1980s and 1990s some developing countries, especially the newly industrialized economies (NIEs) in East Asia, rapidly emerged as one of the major sources of world FDI flows (Suh and Seo 1997; UNCTAD 1995; Petri 1995). During this same period, annual flows of Korean outward FDI increased at an unprecedented pace. For example, Korea's total approved outward FDI, in nominal terms, increased by about 24-fold between 1985 and 2003: from US$219 million in 1985 to US$5,437 million in 2003. Manufacturing was the leading sector, representing almost 53 per cent of the total outward Korean FDI during this period. The trading sector was the next largest sector, with 24 per cent of the total amount (Korea Export-Import Bank 2003). In terms of factor intensity, labour-intensive manufacturing industries mostly relocated to developing countries, particularly ASEAN countries and China, while most Korean FDI conducted in industrialized countries was capital-intensive manufacturing (Tcha 1998). Such a rapid increase in outward FDI has raised some concern among policy-makers and researchers, primarily about the impact of outward FDI on the domestic economy, and potential welfare implications. (1) One major impact of outward FDI is the trade effect, particularly on the exports of a home country. As for the relationship between FDI and trade, theoretical arguments have been made that the two complement or substitute each other. Earlier theoretical efforts, like Mundell (1957), highlight the trade-substituting nature of FDI, and more recent efforts tend to favour FDI being trade-complementing (Markusen 1983, 1984; Helpman 1984, 1985; Helpman and Krugman 1985; Kojima, 1978, 1991 among others). As Petri (1995) and Pfaffermayr (1996) argue, however, the relationship is not predictable because the trade impact of FDI can be influenced by a range of factors, such as firm strategies, motivations for FDI, and government policies. Therefore, the relationship between FDI and trade remains a subject requiting empirical investigation. There is a mixture of results from empirical studies of FDI on home country exports. Some, like Mundell (1957) and Svensson (1996), found FDI had a negative effect on home country exports. Others found outward FDI had a positive effect on exports: Lipsey and Weiss (1981), Helpman (1984), Grossman and Helpman (1989), Lin (1995), Pfaffermayr (1996), Lim and Moon (2001), KOTRA (1997), Hejazi and Safarian (2001). More recently, Lewer and Terry (2003) demonstrate in their evaluation of the impact on trade stemming from capital account liberalization, that foreign capital in general--and FDI--have strong trade creating effects. In this paper, we study the trade impact of Korean outward FDI in four major ASEAN countries. Lim and Moon (2001) have shown the trade impact of FDI using Korean firm-level information. However, their study tends to show foreign affiliates' inclination to export back to the home country, as do other firm-level studies, rather than the trade-creating or displacing effects of FDI. This arises because they did not control for other trade-affecting factors, such as income and prices. Furthermore, firm-level studies ignore the possibility that foreign affiliates in a host country may drive out local firms in an export-oriented industry. In this case, a foreign affiliate's exports may not necessarily be complementing a home country's exports. Therefore, other trade-related variables need to be appropriately controlled in this type of analysis. In the next section, we discuss the theoretical background as to how FDI and trade are potentially related. In section III, a simple econometric model is constructed to empirically investigate the relationship between FDI and trade. The model is set to consider the impact of outward FDI on exports and imports separately, while taking into account country-specific fixed effects. …

Performance, Internationalization, and Firm-specific Advantages of SMEs in a Newly-Industrialized Economy

In light of the lack of empirical evidence regarding issues of internationalization as they affect small and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs) from newly-industrialized economies (NIEs), this study aims to expand the applicability of existent internationalization theories. So far, such theories have largely been developed with MNCs from industrialized economies in mind. In examining a 1996 sample of 1,419 Taiwanese SMEs, we found that the relationship between internationalization and performance could be graphically depicted as one of inverted U-shaped curvilinearity, and that a specific level of internationalization corresponded to maximum profitability. Our empirical findings also confirmed a relationship of U-shaped curvilinearity between advertising investment and performance, indicating that a minimum level of investment is required in order for advertising to be effective. Investments in research and development (R&D) were also shown to be positively associated with firm performance. The external validity of our internationalization theories regarding SMEs from NIEs was generally supported, though some modifications allowing for consideration of the particular context of individual SMEs will ultimately become a necessity.

Measuring the Miracle: Market Imperfections and Asia's Growth Experience

The newly industrialized economies (NIEs) of Asia are the fastest-growing economies in the world since 1960. A clear understanding of their rapid development remains elusive, with continuing disputes over the roles of technology growth, capital accumulation, and international trade and investment. We reconcile seemingly contradictory explanations by accounting for imperfections in output and capital markets. For instance, in Singapore, growth-accounting studies using quantities (the primal approach) find rising capital-output ratios and a constant labor share; but studies using real factor prices (the dual approach) find a constant user cost. We provide evidence that "favored" firms reaped economic profits and received preferential tax treatment, subsidies, and access to capital--market imperfections that are difficult to capture when implementing the dual approach. Further, declining pure profits can reconcile the constant or rising labor shares in revenue in the NIEs with theories of international trade that predict falling labor shares in cost. We provide empirical support for the quantitative importance of profits and heterogeneous user costs, describe the two-sector dynamics, and derive measures of technology growth, corrected for the imperfections that we quantify. We then discuss implications for broader disputes about Asian development.

The ‘Talk’ versus the ‘Walk’: High Performance Work Systems, Labour Market Flexibility and Lessons from Asian Workers

High commitment or high performance work systems (HPWS) are a managerial approach aimed at facilitating high performance companies by transforming employees from merely being workers into partners with employers in realizing company goals. To achieve this HPWS use human resource practices that draw on employee commitment, involvement and empowerment. The pursuit of HPWS with employees in export-oriented industries (EOI) in newly industrializing economies (NIEs) of Malaysia and Sri Lanka is explored here. The discussion confirms a number of difficulties in realizing the aims of an HPWS approach because employers simultaneously pursue labour market flexibility (LMF) practices. As a result, this hybrid labour management model fractures workers' commitment thus leading to a mismatch between the ‘talk’ and ‘walk’ of HPWS in these environments with significant implications for employers.

グローバリゼーション進行下の東アジアにおける農産物貿易

It is important to export high-quality agricultural products for the development of less favored countries, as in Eastern Asia. In this paper, the related mechanism between the export market structure and the domestic regional place of agricultural production is examined through a case study on the export of high-quality rice in the western district of Nishi-Iwami, Shimane prefecture, Japan. The conclusions are as follows:1. Recently the demand for high-quality agricultural products has grown up in Eastern Asia countries, especially in the newly industrializing economies (NIEs), in which the GDP per capita of big cities is over $10, 000, thereby producing a new rich middle class. Thus, intra-trade of agricultural products could be formed between Japan and these countries.2. As the retail shop system for high-quality agricultural products has established in one of the big cities of one of the NIEs, Taiwan, many high-quality rice and fruits could be exported from Japan.3. The reasons that high-quality organic rice in the Nishi-Iwami district was exportable to Taiwan were the (a) existence of the demand in Taiwan, (b) the effect of marketing research, and (c) the existence of the organization of rice suppliers in the Iwami district.4. It was possible to negotiate directly with high class shopping malls for the farmers' organization in this small, less-favored area, Nishi-Iwami, so that this organization could lower the transaction costs, get trusted, and benefit from profitable business conditions from that shopping mall.Even through the scale of this rice trade was just one ton per month, the information of high-quality rice export of Nishi-Iwami to Taiwan spread widely all over Japan. As a result, the rice domestic demand increased more than the export demand, which in turn contributed to improving the economic conditions of the region.

Cultural Imperialism: Essays on the Political Economy of Cultural Domination

Foreword Preface Acknowledgements Notes on Contributors Part 1: Defining Cultural Imperialism Introduction Chapter 1. Cultural Imperialism and Its Critics: Rethinking Cultural Domination and Resistance, Russell Smandych Chapter 2. Cultural Imperialism: The Political Economy of Cultural Domination, Bernd Hamm Part 2: Cultural Imperialism: History and Future Introduction Chapter 3. Cultural Imperialism: A Short History, Future, and a Postscript from the Present, Susantha Goonatilake Chapter 4. Imperialism as a Theory of the Future, Ashis Nandy Chapter 5. Cynical Science: Science and Truth as Cultural Imperialism, Bernd Hamm Part 3: Media Imperialism and Cultural Politics Introduction Chapter 6. Legitimating Domination: Notes on the Changing Face of Cultural Imperialism, Katharine Sarikakis Chapter 7. Content Industries and Cultural Diversity: The Case of Motion Pictures, Christoph Germann Chapter 8. Cultural Imperialism, State's Power, and Civic Activism in and Beyond Cyberspace: Asia's Newly Industrializing Economies (NIEs) in Comparative Perspective, On-kwok Lai Chapter 9. Media Transmitted Values Transfer: The US at War Against Terrorism and its Implications for the Information Society, Elvira Classen Part 4: Neo-Liberalism, Globalization, and Cultural Imperialism Introduction Chapter 10. Neo-Liberalism and the Attack on the Humanities: The New Social Science of Cultural Imperialism, Herbert Schui Chapter 11. The Role of GATS in the Commodification of Education, Christoph Scherrer Chapter 12. From White Man's Burden to Good Governance: Economic Liberalization and the Commodification of Law and Ethics, D. Parthasarathy Chapter 13. Deradicalization and the Defeat of the Feminist Movement: The Case of the Philippines, Sheilfa B. Alojamiento Part 5: Linguistic and Ecological Imperialism Introduction Chapter 14. Analyzing and Resisting Linguistic Imperialism, Fritz Vilmar Chapter 15. Protection of the World's Linguistic and Ecological Diversity: Two Sides of the Same Coin, Hermann H. Dieter Chapter 16. Eco-Imperialism as an Aspect of Cultural Imperialism, Gustav W. Sauer and Bernd Hamm Part 6: Postcolonialism and Cultural Imperialism Introduction Chapter 17. The Cultural Imperialism of Law, Russell Smandych Chapter 18. Enrique Dussel and Ali Shari'ati on Cultural Imperialism, Abbas Manoochehri Chapter 19. Redefining Cultural Imperialism and the Dynamics of Culture Contacts, Biyot K. Tripathy Index

The Effects of Japanese Foreign Direct Investment on Bilateral Food Trade with East Asian Countries

This paper analysed the effect of Japanese foreign direct investment (FDI) on bilateral food trade with East Asian countries by applying the panel data econometrics approach to provide empirical evidence. The results indicated the existence of a complementary effect in the cases of ASEAN4 countries and China, suggesting that FDI was mainly the vertical type that promotes bilateral trade. In contrast, only an export complementary effect was detected in the cases of Hong Kong and Singapore, suggesting that FDI was mainly the horizontal type, as Japanese affiliates started to buy intermediate goods from their home country, Japan. In the cases of Korea and Taiwan, a substitution effect was found, suggesting that FDI was the horizontal type, with local production more efficient than importing goods from Japan. Japanese Multinational Enterprises (MNEs) have been interested in using the ASEAN4 countries and China as production bases, and in accessing local markets of the Newly Industrialized Economies (NIEs). The promotion of inward FDI policy in East Asia by the Japanese food industry should be achieved by more trade liberalization in the case of ASEAN4 and China but, to a lesser extent in the case of NIEs.JEL classification: P45, Q17, R11, R12

Antecedents for Entrepreneurial Propensity and Intention: Findings from Singapore, Taiwan, and Hong Kong

The existing literature identifies a number of antecedent factors that positively influence the propensity of individuals to become entrepreneurs. Key among these are self-efficacy, prior knowledge of other entrepreneurs and perception of opportunities. At the same time, policy makers commonly identify fear of failure as a major deterrent factor for entrepreneurs taking the entrepreneurial plunge. This paper examines the relative impacts of these antecedents and deterrent factor on entrepreneurial propensity, defined as the likelihood of starting one's own business in the three East Asian newly-industrialised economies (NIEs) of Singapore, Hong Kong, and Taiwan. We also test for possible differences in the variables effects on opportunity vs. necessity entrepreneurial propensities. Our findings highlight significant location differences among the variables in the case of overall, opportunity and necessity entrepreneurship. Finally, we discuss the relevant policy implications from our findings.

Impact of China's WTO Accession on East Asia

China's World Trade Organization (WTO) accession will have major implications for China and present both opportunities and challenges for East Asia. Ianchovichina and Walmsley assess the possible channels through which China's accession to the WTO could affect East Asia and quantify these effects using a dynamic computable general equilibrium model. China will be the biggest beneficiary of accession, followed by the industrial and newly industrializing economies (NIEs) in East Asia. But their benefits are small relative to the size of their economies and to the vigorous growth projected to occur in the region over the next 10 years. By contrast, developing countries in East Asia are expected to incur small declines in real GDP and welfare as a result of China's accession, mainly because with the elimination of quotas on Chinese textile and apparel exports to industrial countries China will become a formidable competitor in areas in which these countries have comparative advantage. With WTO accession China will increase its demand for petrochemicals, electronics, machinery, and equipment from Japan and the NIEs, and farm, timber, energy products, and other manufactures from the developing countries in East Asia. New foreign investment is likely to flow into these expanding sectors. The overall impact on foreign investment is likely to be positive in the NIEs, but negative for the less developed East Asian countries as a result of the contraction of these economies' textile and apparel sector. As China becomes a more efficient supplier of services or a more efficient producer of high-end manufactures, its comparative advantage will shift into higher-end products. This is good news for the poor developing economies in East Asia, but it implies that the impact of China's WTO accession on the NIEs may change to include heightened competition in global markets.

Time series analysis in the assessment of ICT impact at the aggregate level – lessons and implications for the new economy

The major role of information and communication technology (ICT) in the new economy is well documented: countries worldwide are pouring resources into their ICT infrastructure despite the widely acknowledged “productivity paradox”. Evaluating the contribution of ICT investments has become an elusive but important goal of IS researchers and economists. But this area of research is fraught with complexity and we have used Solow's Residual together with time-series analysis tools to overcome some methodological inadequacies of previous studies. Using this approach, we conduct a study of 20 countries to determine if there was empirical evidence to support claims that ICT investments are worthwhile. The results show that ICT contributes to economic growth in many developed countries and newly industrialized economies (NIEs), but not in developing countries. We finally suggest ICT-complementary factors, in an attempt to rectify possible flaws in ICT policies as a contribution towards improvement in global productivity.

1235 First-ever and recurrent ischemic stroke in Taiwan: A hospital-based study for disease alteration in a newly industrialized economy (N.I.E.)

1235 First-ever and recurrent ischemic stroke in Taiwan: A hospital-based study for disease alteration in a newly industrialized economy (N.I.E.)