AT the request of the editor of this REVIEW I give in the following article a summary of my theory of economic crises and shall endeavor to indicate the statistical data that may serve for its verification.' My view that cyclical fluctuations in industry and trade with periodic economic crises are inevitable consequences of the process of accumulation of capital which accompanies the evolution of economic life. With the increase of population and the progress of civilization social consumption rises. A corresponding increase of social capital a necessary condition for the satisfaction of these increasing requirements of society. The accumulation of social capital effected by individuals by way of savings, which appear in two forms: the creation of means of production, as a source of income, and the acquisition of rights to existing sources of wealth. The first proceeding increases the social capital, the second affects only the distribution of existing social wealth. By the second method of exclusively private accumulation, one individual can increase his capital at the expense of the savings of other individuals; society, as a whole, can increase its capital only by way of the creation of new sources of production. On the social scale, the result of savings of the last klnd will consist in a corresponding proportion of the productive force of labor and of existing capital being allotted to the increase of new means of production at the expense of consumption goods. But experience shows that the tendency toward the accumulation of social capital, as a result of savings by individuals, always exceeds the tendency toward increased consumption; in other words, experience shows that the increase of demand for consumption goods has a tendency to grow slower than the accumulation of social capital and the production of these goods resulting from that accumulation. The cause of this phenomenon to be found in the fact, that savings by individuals are called forth not only by their desire to increase their consumption in the same proportion, but also by other motives, i.e., the desire to provide for old age or the future of the family, of creating favorable conditions for the development and display of personal faculties, which the possession of a large capital, especially in our days of democracy so much facilitates, the so widespread passion of accumulating for its own sake without any obvious object, as well as the acute competition between rival enterprises, where a large and increasing capital often an indispensable condition for the possibility of maintaining an established position. The tendendy toward an excessive accumulation still encouraged by the circumstance, that the development of requirements, as Malthus says, is a plant of slow growth, whereas the final value of the consumed goods falls with accelerated velocity as the quantity of these goods increases. This tendency toward an excessive accumulation must inevitably produce a tendency toward overcapitalization, that is, of supplying social economy with means of production surpassing the requirements of the growth of social demand. It must likewise inevitably lead to a tendency of overproduction, for the means of production in social economy, based on division of labor and on exchange, cannot fulfil their destination and yield profits unless they produce the goods they have been created for. And these products, surpassing the needs of their producers, not meeting a demand adequate to the circumstances under which their means of production have been I My theory of crises was set forth in my work, Wirtschaftskrisen und Uberkapitalisation, Munich I907, E. Reinhardt ed. Russian edition, Moscow I915. The French edition appeared under the title, Les crisese conomiques, Paris I922, M. Giard ed. See also my other work, Geschichte der Handelskrisen in England i640-I840, Munich I908, E. Reinhardt ed. The law of the variation of value was set forth more particularly in a special work, La loi de variation de la valeutr et les inouvements gcturautx des prix, Paris I927, M. Giard ed. The reader will notice the great resemblance of several points of my theory with the conceptions of A. Aftalion, recently summarized in this REVIEW. At this occasion it may be mentioned that my theory was fully set forth in the above cited German edition of my work, which appeared in October I907 (with the date of i908), consequently before the first work of A. Aftalion on the theory of economic crises, published in I909.
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