New Prognostic Model For Patients Research Articles

Development and validation of a new prognostic model for patients with acute-on-chronic liver failure in intensive care unit.

Cirrhotic patients with acute-on-chronic liver failure (ACLF) in the intensive care unit (ICU) have a poor but variable prognoses. Accurate prognosis evaluation can guide the rational management of patients with ACLF. However, existing prognostic scores for ACLF in the ICU environment lack sufficient accuracy. To develop a new prognostic model for patients with ACLF in ICU. Data from 938 ACLF patients in the Medical Information Mart for Intensive Care (MIMIC) database were used to develop a new prognostic model (MIMIC ACLF) for ACLF. Discrimination, calibration and clinical utility of MIMIC ACLF were assessed by area under receiver operating characteristic curve (AUROC), calibration curve and decision curve analysis (DCA), respectively. MIMIC ACLF was then externally validated in a multiple-center cohort, the Electronic Intensive Care Collaborative Research Database and a single-center cohort from the Second Hospital of Hebei Medical University in China. The MIMIC ACLF score was determined using nine variables: ln (age) × 2.2 + ln (white blood cell count) × 0.22 - ln (mean arterial pressure) × 2.7 + respiratory failure × 0.6 + renal failure × 0.51 + cerebral failure × 0.31 + ln (total bilirubin) × 0.44 + ln (internationalized normal ratio) × 0.59 + ln (serum potassium) × 0.59. In MIMIC cohort, the AUROC (0.81/0.79) for MIMIC ACLF for 28/90-day ACLF mortality were significantly greater than those of Chronic Liver Failure Consortium ACLF (0.76/0.74), Model for End-stage Liver Disease (MELD; 0.73/0.71) and MELD-Na (0.72/0.70) (all P < 0.001). The consistency between actual and predicted 28/90-day survival rates of patients according to MIMIC ACLF score was excellent and superior to that of existing scores. The net benefit of MIMIC ACLF was greater than that achieved using existing scores within the 50% threshold probability. The superior predictive accuracy and clinical utility of MIMIC ACLF were validated in the external cohorts. We developed and validated a new prognostic model with satisfactory accuracy for cirrhotic patients with ACLF hospitalized in the ICU. The model-based risk stratification and online calculator might facilitate the rational management of patients with ACLF.

A Prognostic Methylation-Driven Two-Gene Signature in Medulloblastoma.

Medulloblastoma (MB) is one of the most common pediatric brain tumors and it is estimated that one-third of patients will not achieve long-term survival. Conventional prognostic parameters have limited and unreliable correlations with MB outcome, presenting a major challenge for patients' clinical improvement. Acknowledging this issue, our aim was to build a gene signature and evaluate its potential as a new prognostic model for patients with the disease. In this study, we used six datasets totaling 1679 samples including RNA gene expression and DNA methylation data from primary MB as well as control samples from healthy cerebellum. We identified methylation-driven genes (MDGs) in MB, genes whose expression is correlated with their methylation. We employed LASSO regression, incorporating the MDGs as a parameter to develop the prognostic model. Through this approach, we derived a two-gene signature (GS-2) of candidate prognostic biomarkers for MB (CEMIP and NCBP3). Using a risk score model, we confirmed the GS-2 impact on overall survival (OS) with Kaplan-Meier analysis. We evaluated its robustness and accuracy with receiver operating characteristic curves predicting OS at 1, 3, and 5 years in multiple independent datasets. The GS-2 showed highly significant results as an independent prognostic biomarker compared to traditional MB markers. The methylation-regulated GS-2 risk score model can effectively classify patients with MB into high and low-risk, reinforcing the importance of this epigenetic modification in the disease. Such genes stand out as promising prognostic biomarkers with potential application for MB treatment.

New prognostic model for hospitalized patients with alcoholic cirrhosis and Maddrey's discriminant function

Few studies have investigated the prognosis of patients with non-severe alcoholic hepatitis (Non-SAH). The study aimed to develop a new prognostic model for patients with especially Non-SAH. We extracted 316 hospitalized patients with alcoholic cirrhosis without severe alcoholic hepatitis, defined as Maddrey's discriminant function score lower than 32, from the retrospective Korean Acute-on-Chronic Liver Failure (KACLiF) cohort to develop a new prognostic model (training set), and validated it in 419 patients from the prospective KACLiF cohort (validation set). Prognostic factors for death and liver transplantation were analyzed to construct a prognostic model. Twenty-one and 24 patients died within 6 months in both sets, respectively. In the training set, the highest area under the curve (AUC) of conventional prognostic models was 0.765, 0.732, and 0.684 for 1-, 3-, and 6-month mortality, respectively. Refractory ascites, vasopressor use, and hyponatremia were independently associated with mortality of cirrhotic patients with Non-SAH. The new model consisted of four variables: past deterioration, neutrophil proportion > 70%, Na < 128 mmol/L, and vasopressor use. It showed the highest accuracy for short-term mortality in the training and validation sets (0.803 and 0.786; 0.797 and 0.776; and 0.789 and 0.721 for 1-, 3-, and 6-month mortality, respectively). There is a group of patients with high risk among those classified as Non-SAH. The new model will help stratifying cirrhotic patients with Non-SAH more accurately in terms of prognosis. The patients with high Non-SAH score need to monitor closely and might be considered for preemptive liver transplantation. ClinicalTrials.gov identifier: NCT02650011.

New prognostic model for patients with advanced gastric cancer: Fluoropyrimidine/platinum doublet for first-line chemotherapy.

BACKGROUNDNew prognostic factors have been reported in patients with metastatic or recurrent gastric cancer (MRGC), necessitating modifications to the previous prognostic model.AIMTo develop a new model, MRGC patients who received fluoropyrimidines/ platinum doublet chemotherapy between 2008 and 2015 were analyzed.METHODSA total of 1883 patients was divided into a training set (n = 937) and an independent validation set (n = 946).RESULTSMultivariate analysis showed that the following six factors were associated with poor overall survival (OS) in the training set: Eastern Cooperative Oncology Group performance score ≥ 2 and bone metastasis (2 points each), peritoneal metastasis, high alkaline phosphatase level, low albumin level, and high neutrophil-lymphocyte ratio (1 point each). A prognostic model was developed by stratifying patients into good (0-1 point), moderate (2-3 points), and poor (≥ 4 points) risk groups. In the validation set, the median OS of the three risk groups was 15.8, 10.1, and 5.7 mo, respectively, and those differences were significant (P < 0.001).CONCLUSIONWe identified six factors readily measured in clinical practice that are predictive of poor prognosis in patients with MRGC. The new model is simpler than the old and more easily predicts OS.

PD08-03 EAU BCR RISK CLASSIFICATION AS DECISION TOOL FOR SALVAGE RADIOTHERAPY? A MULTICENTER STUDY

INTRODUCTION AND OBJECTIVE:Recently, a new prognostic model for patients harboring biochemical recurrence (BCR) after radical prostatectomy (RP) has been proposed by the European Association of Uro...

Effect of Diameter and Number of Hepatocellular Carcinomas on Survival After Resection, Transarterial Chemoembolization, and Ablation.

Most studies predicting survival after resection, transarterial chemoembolization (TACE), and ablation analyzed diameter and number of hepatocellular carcinomas (HCCs) as dichotomous variables, resulting in an underestimation of risk variation. We aimed to develop and validate a new prognostic model for patients with HCC using largest diameter and number of HCCs as continuous variables. The prognostic model was developed using data from patients undergoing resection, TACE, and ablation in 645 Japanese institutions. The model results were shown after balanced using the inverse probability of treatment-weighted analysis and were externally validated in an international multi-institution cohort. Of 77,268 patients, 43,904 patients, including 15,313 (34.9%) undergoing liver resection, 13,375 (30.5%) undergoing TACE, and 15,216 (34.7%) undergoing ablation, met the inclusion criteria. Our model (http://www.u-tokyo-hbp-transplant-surgery.jp/about/calculation.html) showed that the 5-year overall survival (OS) in patients with HCC undergoing these procedures decreased with progressive incremental increases in diameter and number of HCCs. For patients undergoing resection, the inverse probability of treatment-weighted-adjusted 5-year OS probabilities were 10%-20% higher compared with patients undergoing TACE for 1-6 HCC lesions <10 cm and were also 10%-20% higher compared with patients undergoing ablation when the HCC diameter was 2-3 cm. For patients undergoing resection and TACE, the model performed well in the external cohort. Our novel prognostic model performed well in predicting OS after resection and TACE for HCC and demonstrated that resection may have a survival benefit over TACE and ablation based on the diameter and number of HCCs.

Contour prognostic model for predicting survival after resection of colorectal liver metastases: development and multicentre validation study using largest diameter and number of metastases with RAS mutation status.

Most current models for predicting survival after resection of colorectal liver metastasis include largest diameter and number of colorectal liver metastases as dichotomous variables, resulting in underestimation of the extent of risk variation and substantial loss of statistical power. The aim of this study was to develop and validate a new prognostic model for patients undergoing liver resection including largest diameter and number of colorectal liver metastases as continuous variables. A prognostic model was developed using data from patients who underwent liver resection for colorectal liver metastases at MD Anderson Cancer Center and had RAS mutational data. A Cox proportional hazards model analysis was used to develop a model based on largest colorectal liver metastasis diameter and number of metastases as continuous variables. The model results were shown using contour plots, and validated externally in an international multi-institutional cohort. A total of 810 patients met the inclusion criteria. Largest colorectal liver metastasis diameter (hazard ratio (HR) 1.11, 95 per cent confidence interval 1.06 to 1.16; P < 0.001), number of colorectal liver metastases (HR 1.06, 1.03 to 1.09; P < 0.001), and RAS mutation status (HR 1.76, 1.42 to 2.18; P < 0.001) were significantly associated with overall survival, together with age, primary lymph node metastasis, and prehepatectomy chemotherapy. The model performed well in the external validation cohort, with predicted overall survival values almost lying within 10 per cent of observed values. Wild-type RAS was associated with better overall survival than RAS mutation even when liver resection was performed for larger and/or multiple colorectal liver metastases. The contour prognostic model, based on diameter and number of lesions considered as continuous variables along with RAS mutation, predicts overall survival after resection of colorectal liver metastasis.

Comparison of the Prognostic Value of Platelet-Related Indices in Biliary Tract Cancer Undergoing Surgical Resection.

PurposePlatelet-related indices, including mean platelet volume (MPV) and plateletocrit (PCT), have been reported as new prognostic factors of overall survival (OS) in many cancers, but not yet in biliary tract cancer (BTC). We intended to assess these indices in predicting OS in BTC patients with the aim to build a new prognostic model for patients with BTC after surgical resection.Materials and MethodsSurvival analysis and time receiver operating characteristic analysis were applied to screen the platelet indices. Univariate and multivariate Cox analyses were used to identify independent prognostic factors and develop a new prognostic model. Harrell’s C-statistics, calibration curves, and decisive curve analysis were used to assess the model.ResultsMPV and platelet distribution width (PDW)/PCT showed the best prognostic accuracy among the platelet indices. In multivariable analysis, factors predictive of poor OS were presence of nodal involvement, Non-radical surgery, poor tumor differentiation, carbohydrate antigen 19-9 > 100 U/mL, MPV > 8.1 fl, and PDW/PCT > 190. The new model was found to be superior to the TNM staging system and our new staging system showed higher discriminative power.ConclusionMPV and PDW/PCT have high prognostic value in BTC patients, and the novel staging system based on these two indices showed good discrimination and accuracy compared with the American Joint Committee on Cancer 7th TNM staging system.

Selected protein expression in a new prognostic model for patients with non-muscle-invasive bladder cancer

IntroductionAfter transurethral resection of a bladder tumor, patients frequently have a recurrence of the disease, thereby requiring adjuvant therapy.PurposeThe study aimed to determine the prognostic value of expression levels of p53, Ki-67, and survivin, and to develop a new prognostic model for patients with non-muscle-invasive bladder cancer (NMIBC) after transurethral resection of a bladder tumor.MethodsThe study group consisted of 101 patients with primary NMIBC. Univariate followed by multivariate Cox proportional hazard regression analysis was performed to obtain a model including the smallest possible number of descriptive variables with the highest statistical significance and impact on risk.ResultsThe RECINT model (RECurrence In Not Treated) including factors independently associated with cancer recurrence (tumor size [HR 1.148; p = 0.034], intensity of the color reaction for p53 [HR 1.716; p = 0.008], Ki-67 [HR 3.001; p = 0.022], and survivin [HR 1.461; p = 0.021]) adequately stratified recurrence free-survival (R2 = 0.341, p < 0.001) in patients with primary NMIBC. Patients with the lowest RECINT score (0–6) had the lowest probability of cancer recurrence (1- and 5-year recurrence of 16%) in comparison with other groups (p < 0.001).ConclusionsThe RECINT model may be useful for stratifying the risk of recurrence in patients with non-muscle-invasive bladder cancer and may allow for identification of those who may benefit the most from adjuvant BCG immunotherapy.

A prognostic Scoring System for Patients With Multiple Myeloma Who Were Classified Stage II by Revised International Staging System

Abstract Background: Revised International Staging System (R-ISS) is recently proposed risk stratification algorism based on ISS, cytogenetic risk, and lactate dehydrogenase in multiple myeloma (MM). Although R-ISS had an improved prognostic power compared to ISS, there is a problem that patients with stage II increase to 1.7 times. In this study, we evaluated survival outcomes and a new prognostic tool for MM patients classified as R-ISS II. Methods: Retrospective data from 441 patients who were initially treated with a novel agent-containing regimens were analyzed. Results: R-ISS staging system could discriminate survival outcome more clearly compared to ISS in patients treated with novel-agents [median overall survival (OS) times of R-ISS I vs. II. Vs. III was 76.3 vs. 51.3 vs. 30.3 months, P Conclusion: R-ISS is an excellent prognostic tool in MM in the novel-agent era, but there is a limitation that most of patients were classified into R-ISS II. A new prognostic model for patients with R-ISS II is needed, and prognostic scoring system based on poor PS, del(17p13), and thrombocytopenia may be useful to distinguishing survival outcomes of patients with R-ISS II. Download : Download high-res image (83KB) Download : Download full-size image Disclosures No relevant conflicts of interest to declare.

Primary central nervous system lymphoma: a new prognostic model for patients with diffuse large B-cell histology.

BackgroundAge and performance status are important prognostic factors in primary central nervous system (CNS) lymphoma. Although several prognostic models have been proposed, there is no consensus on the optimal model for patients with diffuse large B-cell histology.MethodsSeventy-seven patients with primary CNS diffuse large B-cell lymphoma were retrospectively analyzed to determine factors affecting survival. Three Western models were applied to our eligible patients; we devised a novel model based on our findings.ResultsThe median patient age was 59 years (range, 29–77); the median event-free and overall survival (OS) durations were 35.9 and 12.6 months, respectively. Nottingham/Barcelona and Memorial Sloan Kettering Cancer Center models were applicable to our cohorts. Multivariate analysis showed that advanced age, multifocal lesions, and high cerebrospinal fluid (CSF) protein concentrations were correlated significantly. A novel model for predicting prognosis was then developed based on these variables. Each variable was assigned 1 point; patients with a total score of 0, 1, 2, and 3 were categorized into the low- (N=17), moderate- (N=26), high- (N=14), and very high-risk groups (N=4), respectively. Sixty-one patients were eligible considering our model; the median OS was 58.2, 34.8, 9.0, and 1.8 months in the low-, moderate-, high-, and very high-risk groups, respectively (P<0.01).ConclusionAdvanced age, multifocal lesions, and high CSF protein concentration were adversely related with prognosis. Our model can be helpful in pre-treatment risk stratification for patients with primary CNS lymphoma with diffuse large B-cell histology.

A Prognostic Scoring System for Patients with Multiple Myeloma Who Were Classified Stage II By Revised International Staging System

Background: Revised International Staging System (R-ISS) is recently proposed risk stratification algorism based on ISS, cytogenetic risk, and lactate dehydrogenase in multiple myeloma (MM). Although R-ISS had an improved prognostic power compared to ISS, there is a problem that patients with stage II increase to 1.7 times. In this study, we evaluated survival outcomes and a new prognostic tool for MM patients classified as R-ISS II.Methods: Retrospective data from 441 patients who were initially treated with a novel agent-containing regimens were analyzed.Results: R-ISS staging system could discriminate survival outcome more clearly compared to ISS in patients treated with novel-agents [median overall survival (OS) times of R-ISS I vs. II. Vs. III was 76.3 vs. 51.3 vs. 30.3 months, P < 0.001]. By applying R-ISS, 6.2% of patients with ISS I, and 24.3% with ISS III were reclassified into R-ISS II. Overall, 290 patients (66%) was classified into R-ISS II and had wide range of survival outcomes (0.7-114.5 months). In multivariate analysis, poor performance status (PS) (HR 1.657, 95% CI 1.159-2.370, P =0.006), del (17p13) (HR 2.227, 95% CI 1.174-4.223), P = 0.014), and thrombocytopenia (HR 1.533, 95% CI 1.033-2.276, P = 0.034) were significantly associated with OS in patients with R-ISS II. Based on this analysis, we constructed a new prognostic model consisted of poor PS (1 point), del(17p13) (2 point), and thrombocytopenia (1point). Among the 290 patients, 152 patients (52.4%) were classified as low-risk (score 0), 109 (37.5%) as intermediate risk (score 1), and 29 (10%) as high risk (scores 2 or more). The median OS times for the corresponding risk groups was 57.5 months (95% CI 40.4-74.5), 30.2 months (95% CI 20.7-39.7), and 20.9 months (95% CI 6.4-35.3) (P <0.001).Conclusion: R-ISS is an excellent prognostic tool in MM in the novel-agent era, but there is a limitation that most of patients were classified into R-ISS II. A new prognostic model for patients with R-ISS II is needed, and prognostic scoring system based on poor PS, del(17p13), and thrombocytopenia may be useful to distinguishing survival outcomes of patients with R-ISS II. [Display omitted] DisclosuresNo relevant conflicts of interest to declare.

Different prognostic models for different patient populations: validation of a new prognostic model for patients with oropharyngeal cancer in Western Europe.

Objective:The presence of human papillomavirus (HPV) infection in oropharyngeal squamous cell carcinoma (OPSCC) is a major determinant in prognostic risk modelling. Recently, a prognostic model was proposed in which HPV status, comorbidity and nodal stage were the most important prognostic factors to determine high-, intermediate- and low-risk survival groups. Here, we report on the validation of this model using an independent single-institutional cohort.Methods:A total number of 235 patients curatively treated for OPSCC in the period 2000–2011 at the MUMC (Maastricht University Medical Center, The Netherlands) were included. The presence of an oncogenic HPV infection was determined by p16 immunostaining, followed by a high-risk HPV DNA PCR on the p16-positive cases. The model variables included were HPV status, comorbidity and nodal stage. As a measure of model performance, the Harrell's Concordance index (Harrell's C-index) was used.Results:The 5-year overall survival (OS) estimates were 84.6%, 54.5% and 28.7% in the low-, intermediate- and high-risk group, respectively. The difference between the survival curves was highly significant (P<0.001). The Harrell's C-index was 0.69 (95% confidence interval (CI): 0.63–0.75).Conclusion:In this study a previously developed prognostic risk model was validated. This model will help to personalise treatment in OPSCC patients. This model is publicly available at www.predictcancer.org.

Post Transplant Lymphoproliferative Disorders: Prognostic Features and Rituximab Impact In a 120 Case Single Institution Series

AbstractAbstract 4151Post-transplant lymphoproliferative disorder (PTLD) is a broad spectrum of lymphoproliferative disorders that can occur after solid organ transplant or hematopoietic stem cell transplant. The incidence ranges from 1% to 20% depending on the type of organ graft, the intensity of the immunosuppression and the Epstein-Barr virus (EBV) serostatus. It represents a serious and potentially life threatening complication, with reported mortality rate up to 40–50%. According to the World Health Organization classification system, PTLD are classified as early lesions (EL), polymorphic (p-PTLD), monomorphic (m-PTLD), and Hodgkin-like (HL). Here we analyzed the prognosis and clinical characteristics of 120 patients diagnosed and treated over a 19-year period (from 1990 to 2009). To the best of our knowledge, this is the largest series of PTLD to be reported by a single Institution.The cases were classified as follows: 70 (58.3%) m-PTLD, 34 (28.3%) p-PTLD, 14 (11.7%) EL, and 2 (1.7%) HL. In the m-PTLD group, 59 were of B-cell origin (52 DLBCL, 4 BL, 2 plasmacytoma-like, 1 multiple myeloma and 1 pleural effusion) and 10 were of T/NK cell lineage (4 peripheral T-cell lymphomas, 2 CTCL, 2 HSTCL, 1 T-ALL and 1 NK-cell lymphoma).The age of the patients ranged from 1 to 76 years, with 39 pediatric patients (<16 year old) and 81 adult patients. The EBV status of the PTLD, was determined in 94 cases, 58 (61.7%) were positive and 38 (38.3%) were negative, with no difference between pediatric and adult patients (p=0.11). CD 20 positivity was available in 106 specimens and was highly expressed in our series (87.6%) with no differences between adult and pediatric patients (p=0.4). Approximately half of the patients were diagnosed in stage I or II of disease (44.2%), and the other half in advanced stage III or IV (55.8%) with no substantial differences between adults and pediatrics (p=1). ECOG score 0 or 1 was observed in 2/3 of the patients (67.2%), and it was more frequently observed in pediatrics than in adults (respectively 80% and 61%) but the difference was not statistically significant (p=0.06).Younger age, CD 20 positivity, good ECOG score, platelet and absolute neutrophil count within normal limits correlated with a longer OS (p=0.001, P<0.001, P<0.001, P<0.001 and p=0.003 respectively). PTLD subtype (i.e. EL, pPTLD, mPTLD, HL), gender, decade of diagnosis (1990-1999 vs 2000–2009), organ transplanted, EBV status, anemia, hypoalbuminemia, elevated LDH, extranodal sites involvement, grafted organ involvement, stage at diagnosis did not correlate with the OS in the univariate analysis.Using the recursive partitioning modeling, a new prognostic score was developed: ECOG score (0-1 vs 2–3), age (pediatrics [<16 year old], adults [>= 16 and <60 year old] and elderly [>60 year old]) and CD 20 status (positive vs negative) provided a tree with 5 nodes (figure 1), separating the patients into 4 risk categories. The low-risk group included pediatric patients with ECOG score of 0–1 (median OS not reached); the intermediate-low-risk group included adults with an ECOG score of 0–1 (median OS of 6.8 years); the intermediate-high-risk group included elderly with ECOG score 0–1 or pediatrics and adults with an ECOG score of 2–4 and CD20 positive or n/a (median OS of 1.8 years); the high-risk group included any patient with an ECOG score of 2–4 and CD20 negative, and elderly patients with CD20 positive or n/a (median OS of 1.3 months).In addition, in the group of adult patients with DLBCL PTLD and pPTLD (61 total), we analyzed the impact on OS of Rituximab treatment, as single agent or in combination with chemotherapy, compared to chemotherapy or immunosuppressant tapering alone. OS curves of patients treated with and without Rituximab adjusted by ECOG score, are shown in figure 2. The median OS of patients treated without rituximab with ECOG score 0–1 (18 patients) was 10.5 years, with ECOG 2–4 (13 patients) was 1.5 months compared to a median OS of 2.7 years in the rituximab group with ECOG score 0–1 (19 patients), and 1.2 years in the rituximab group with ECOG score 2–4 (11 patients) (p=0.8).This series proposed a new prognostic model for patients with PTLD, based on ECOG score, age and CD 20 expression. Interestingly, in our series, in a homogeneous population of adult patients with DLBCL and p-PTLD, the use of rituximab as single agent or in combination, compared to chemotherapy and immunosuppression tapering, did not show a survival benefit. Disclosures:O'Connor:Allos Therapeutics, Inc.: Research Funding.

A critical analysis of prognostic factors in North American patients with human T‐cell lymphotropic virus type‐1‐associated adult T‐cell leukemia/lymphoma

To define the clinicopathologic and prognostic features of patients with human T-cell lymphotropic virus type-1 (HTLV-1)-associated adult T-cell leukemia/lymphoma (ATLL) in North America, standard criteria were used to identify patients with ATLL. Statistical analyses used included descriptive statistics, Kaplan-Meir survival analysis, and recursive partitioning. Eighty-nine patients were identified between August 1992 and May 2007, including 37 (41.6%) males and 52 (58.4%) females with a median age of 50 years (range, 22-82 years). All but 6 patients had immigrated to the United States from the Caribbean, Latin America, or Africa. The acute subtype predominated (68.5%). The majority of patients received a combination-alkylator-based chemotherapy regimen in the front-line setting (72.6%). The most common regimen was cyclophosphamide, doxorubicin, vincristine, and prednisone at standard doses or attenuated and/or with methotrexate (CHOP-like), which produced an overall response rate of 64.1%. Despite initial responses to therapy, the median overall survival for all subtypes was 24 weeks (range, 0.9-315 weeks). Although the International Prognostic Index and Prognostic Index for peripheral T-cell lymphoma unspecified identified subsets of patients, these models were not completely predictive. A recursive partitioning analysis was performed on the data, which successfully identified 3 prognostic categories based on Eastern Cooperative Oncology Group performance status, stage, age, and calcium level at diagnosis. This series proposed a new prognostic model for patients with HTLV-1-associated ATLL and confirmed a poor outcome for these patients in North America.

Risk Stratification Using a New Prognostic Model for Patients with Secondary Acute Myeloid Leukemia - Results of the DSIL-AML96 Trial.

Abstract 2652Poster Board II-628▪▪This icon denotes an abstract that is clinically relevant. Background:Secondary acute myeloid leukemia (sAML) following a myelodysplastic syndrome (mdsAML) or deriving as therapy-related AML (tAML) is regarded as an entity with a poor prognosis and patients are normally treated as high risk AML. However due to progress in elucidating the impact of molecular and cytogenetic markers and therefore combining biological and clinical data for prognosis and treatment outcome the aim of this analysis was to provide a prognostic scoring system for this entity by including clinical and laboratory data from patients being treated in the prospective AML96 trial of the DSIL study group. Patients and methods:A total of 318 patients with sAML (mdsAML = 239 and tAML = 79) were treated within the AML96 trial with a median follow-up for patients alive of 5.66 years (95% CI 4.426 – 6.895). All patients received double induction chemotherapy. Consolidation therapy contained high-dose cytosine arabinoside and for patients ' 60 years of age the option of autologous or allogeneic hematopoietic stem cell transplantation (HSCT) according to donor availability. Prognostic factors for survival were analyzed in the whole group of sAML patients in a multivariate Cox regression model for overall survival (OS) stratified by treatment groups (chemo-consolidation vs. allogeneic HSCT). Model selection was performed by backward selection applying the Likelihood-Ratio-Test. Results:Complete remission (CR) rate for all patients was 30.8% (n = 96). CR rate was lower in patients with mdsAML compared to patients with tAML (25.9% vs. 44.3%, p=.003). Patients with mdsAML were older and had a higher percentage of CD34+ blasts at diagnosis but to a lower extend aberrant karyotypes than patients with tAML. OS and disease free survival (DFS) at three years for all patients was 15.8% and 20.6%, respectively. While disease status (mdsAML vs. tAML) had no independent influence on survival, the dichotomized prognostic factors platelet count in the peripheral blood at diagnosis [HR = 0.535 (95% CI .415 – .689), p=<.000] as well as the NPM1 mutational status in the bone marrow at diagnosis [HR = 0.572 (95% CI .351 – .933), p=.025] were detected as independent predictors for overall survival. By combining these two variables, a prognostic model for OS with two risk groups for patients with sAML could be established with the low risk group being NPM1 positive or having platelets of >50 Gpt/l at diagnosis and the high risk group being NPM1 negative and having platelets of '50 Gpt/l at diagnosis. Three year OS for patients who received chemo-consolidation in the low risk group was 19.9% [95% CI = .128 - .270] and for patients in the high risk group 5.1% [95% CI = .014 - .088], p<.001. For patients who underwent allogeneic HSCT in first CR belonging to the low risk group the three year OS was 53.8% [95% CI = .346 - .730] and for patients in the high risk group 15.4% [95% CI = .000 - .35], p<.001. Conclusions:For patients with sAML we provide a new prognostic model for risk stratification: 1) NPM1+ or Platelets >50 Gpt/l defining a low risk group and 2) NPM1- and Platelets ' 50 Gpt/l defining a high risk group. Disclosures:No relevant conflicts of interest to declare.