New Keynesian Model Research Articles

Econometric Policy Evaluation in a Two Sector Model

This paper estimates a New-Keynesian structural model and evaluates alternative monetary policy regimes. An estimated two sector model and alternative policy regimes are used to calculate the optimal monetary policy frontier. The structural model that consists of two sectors: durable and nondurable, is estimated by the Full Information Maximum Likelihood (FIML) method. Given the structure of the economy and discretionary monetary policy regimes, we find that changes in monetary policy responses to aggregate or disaggregate inflation and output gap can imply substantial differences in long-run inflation and output variances. More importantly, this paper shows that in terms of monetary policy frontier, monetary policy could have been more effective if the central bank had focused on sectoral stabilization as opposed to traditional stabilization.

Monetary policy and asset prices with belief-driven fluctuations

We present a heterogeneous agents New-Keynesian model subject to a cost channel of monetary policy transmission. Constant turnover between long-time traders and newcomers in market activities, combined with restricted trading opportunities, introduces a feedback from the stock market to real activity, making stock prices non-redundant for the business cycle. We show that strict inflation targeting can lead to equilibrium indeterminacy, even if the policy rule satisfies the Taylor principle. A belief-driven shock to stock price generates relative volatilities of key financial variables which are very close to what is observed in U.S. data. This result hints to the possibility that the financial instability witnessed since the mid-to-late 1990s was the result of waves of (rational) exuberance and pessimism in financial markets. Our analysis suggests that a mild response to stock prices in the central bank's policy rule can restore equilibrium determinacy and therefore rule out non-fundamental volatility.

Monetary Policy as an Optimal Control Problem

This paper analyses the monetary policy of a central bank in a simple deterministic and continuous dynamic non-linear New-Keynesian model with an active central bank conducting monetary policy within inflation targeting framework. To meet this purpose, first we derive two differential equations capturing the dynamics in the economy: the dynamic IS curve representing the commodity market and the Phillips curve capturing the connection between the real and nominal sectors of the economy in a continuous form. By introducing a quadratic loss function commonly used in New Keynesian Economics we get optimal control problem which solution will be analysed with the use of fuzzy control. Then we introduce a modified form of the Taylor rule and analyse the solution of the same differential equations capturing the dynamics of the economy using Taylor rule instead of loss function. The comparison of the solutions of both models will be demonstrated in examples in which the main characteristic of dynamics of production and inflation are displayed.

The Comeback of Inflation as an Optimal Public Finance Tool

We challenge the widely held belief that New-Keynesian models cannot predict optimal positive inflation rates. In fact these are justified by the Phelps argument that monetary financing can alleviate the burden of distortionary taxation. We obtain this result because, in contrast with previous contributions, our model accounts for public transfers as a component of scale outlays. We also contradict the view that the Ramsey policy should minimize inflation volatility and induce near random walk dynamics of public debt in the long-run. In our model it should instead stabilize debt-to-GDP ratios in order to mitigate steady-state distortions. Our results thus provide theoretical support to policy-oriented analyses which call for a reversal of debt accumulated in the aftermath of the 2008 financial crisis.

Modeling Sterilized Interventions and Balance Sheet Effects of Monetary Policy in a New-Keynesian Framework

We study a wide range of hybrid inflation-targeting (IT) and managed exchange rate regimes, analyzing their implications for inflation, output and the exchange rate in the presence of various domestic and external shocks. To this end, we develop an open economy new-Keynesian model featuring sterilized interventions in the foreign exchange (FX) market as an additional central bank instrument operating alongside the Taylor rule, and affecting the economy through portfolio balance sheet effects in the financial sector. We find that there can be advantages to combining IT with some degree of exchange rate management via FX interventions. Unlike pure IT or exchange rate management via interest rates, FX interventions can help insulate the economy against certain shocks, especially shocks to international financial conditions. However, managing the exchange rate through FX interventions may also hinder necessary exchange rate adjustments, e.g., in the presence of terms of trade shocks.

Investissement, contraintes financières et fluctuations macroéconomiques

Résumé Cet article étudie l’influence des activités bancaires et des frictions financières dans le cadre d’un modèle de la nouvelle macroéconomie keynésienne. Ce cadre est comparé à deux modèles alternatifs déjà proposés par la littérature : le modèle canonique de la nouvelle synthèse néoclassique (Woodford [2003]) et le modèle de Goodfriend et McCallum [2007]. Les fonctions de réaction simulées à la suite d’un choc technologique montrent que l’introduction de facteurs bancaires n’a pas d’influence significative sur la réaction de variables macroéconomiques à des innovations technologiques. Par contre, en cas de choc financier, les effets apparaissent significativement plus importants que dans les modèles existants. Les simulations effectuées permettent de répliquer des phénomènes économiques d’une amplitude comparable à ceux observés dans le cadre américain lors de la crise financière de 2008.

Inflation contract, central bank transparency and model uncertainty

Using a New-Keynesian model subject to misspecifications, we examine how the robust monetary policy could be modified by a linear inflation contract when a central bank is opaque about its preference for model robustness. It is shown that a central bank must limit this preference and opacity about it to ensure the dynamic stability of the economy. An optimal inflation contract with a zero penalty rate provides no incentive for a central bank to be opaque. The latter must rebalance the benefit of avoiding very bad outcomes in worst case scenarios and the economic costs due to higher macroeconomic volatility.

Real Exchange Rate Adjustment, Wage-Setting Institutions, and Fiscal Stabilization Policy: Lessons of the Eurozone's First Decade

In terms of macroeconomic performance, the Eurozone's first decade is a story of successful inflation-targeting by the ECB for the common currency area as a whole combined with the persistence of real exchange rate and current account disequilibria at member country level. According to the standard New Keynesian (NK) model of a small member of a currency union, policy intervention at country level is not necessary to ensure adjustment to country-specific shocks. Self-stabilization of shocks takes place through the adjustment of prices and wages to ensure that the real exchange rate returns to equilibrium. That this did not happen in the Eurozone appears to be related to the presence of non-rational wage setters in a number of member countries. A related second departure from the NK model was the transmission of non-rational inflation expectations to the real interest rate, propagating easy credit conditions in countries with inflation above target. Problems of real exchange rate misalignment among members were exacerbated by the ability of Germany's wage-setting institutions to deliver self-stabilization. The implications for policy focus on using fiscal policy to target the real exchange rate and/or on reforms to labour markets that deliver real exchange rate oriented wage setting. (JEL codes: E61, E62, E65, F41, O52) Copyright The Author 2012. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of Ifo Institute, Munich. All rights reserved. For permissions, please email: journals.permissions@oup.com, Oxford University Press.

A fiscal stimulus with deep habits and optimal monetary policy

A New-Keynesian model with deep habits and optimal monetary policy delivers a larger-than-1 fiscal multiplier and consumption crowding in. Optimized Taylor-type rules dominate a conventional Taylor rule. Consumption is crowded out if the Taylor rule is suboptimal or if commitment is absent.

Estimating Central Bank Preferences Under Commitment and Discretion

This paper explains US macroeconomic outcomes with an empirical new-Keynesian model in which monetary policy minimizes the central bank's loss function. The presence of expectations in the model forms a well-known distinction between two modes of optimization, termed commitment and discretion. The model is estimated separately under each policy using maximum likelihood over the Volcker-Greenspan-Bernanke period. Comparisons of fit reveal that the data favor the specification with discretionary policy. Estimates of the loss function weights point to an excessive concern for interest rate smoothing in the commitment model but a more balanced concern relative to inflation and output stability in the discretionary model.

SOME OBSERVATIONS ON THE HIGH-FREQUENCY VERSIONS OF A STANDARD NEW-KEYNESIAN MODEL

In a small-scale New-Keynesian model with a hybrid Phillips curve and IS equation, the paper is concerned with an arbitrary frequency of the agents' synchronized decision making. It investigates the validity of a fundamental methodological precept according to which no substantive prediction or explanation of a well-defined macroeconomic period model should depend on the real time length of the period. While this principle is basically satisfied as the period goes to zero, the impulse-response functions of the high-frequency versions can qualitatively as well as quantitatively be fairly dissimilar from their quarterly counterpart. The result proves to be robust under variations of the degree of price stickiness. The main conclusion is that DSGE modelling may be more sensitive to its choice of the agents' decision interval.

Bonds Transaction Services and the Term Structure of Interest Rates: Implications for Equilibrium Determinacy

We introduce two bonds in a standard New-Keynesian model to study the role of segmentation in bond markets for the determinacy of rational expectations equilibria. We use a strongly-separable utility function to model short-term bonds providing transaction services for the purchase of consumption goods. Long-term bonds, instead, provide the standard services of store of value. We obtain a fully analytical solution for the bond pricing kernel, allowing to endogenize the term spread within the model. In this way, we study equilibrium determinacy properties within a context embedding the full information derived from term structure of interest rates. Our results show that, when utility is weakly separable between consumption and bonds, the Taylor principle holds only conditional to a non-linear relation between output and inflation targeting coefficients of monetary policy rule. Achieving solution determinacy requires to constraint policy coefficients to lie within bounds depending on structural parameters of the model. This paper provides an analytical setting useful for several generalizations to address the stability properties in dynamic models including the term structure of interest rates, induced by policy rules.

The choice of a foreign price measure in a Bayesian estimated new-Keynesian model for Israel

We estimate a small DSGE model by full information Bayesian techniques on the basis of Israeli data from 1995 to 2006. The model was first developed and estimated by means of classical GMM in Argov and Elkayam (2010), and since then it has been used at the Bank of Israel for monetary policy analysis. It is widely believed that in 2007 (out of sample year) as elsewhere worldwide, inflation rose in Israel due to high commodity prices in global markets. However, our baseline model attributes most of the high inflation in 2007 to supply shocks. One conjecture is that this model's result derives from the inappropriate original use of the unit value of imported consumer goods (which do not include unprocessed food and energy) as the main foreign price measure. We test this conjecture by re-estimating the model with various other foreign price measures that typically do reflect the global rise in commodity prices and compare the log-marginal likelihoods. We find that no other price measure outperforms the original choice in the sample period. Only the foreign trade-weighted CPI equals the performance of the original choice while improving the 2007 interpretation of inflation, and should therefore be considered the main foreign price measure. The proposed methodology for comparing the suitability of alternative measures for observable variables can be applied to any model with exogenous variables that are characterized by univariate equations.

Some Unpleasant Properties of Log-Linearized Solutions When the Nominal Rate is Zero

Does fiscal policy have large and qualitatively different effects on the economy when the nominal interest rate is zero? An emerging consensus in the New Keynesian (NK) literature is that the answer to this question is yes. Evidence presented here suggests that the NK model's implications for fiscal policy at the zero bound may not be all that different from its implications for policy away from it. For a range of empirically relevant parameterizations, employment increases when the labor tax rate is cut and the government purchase multiplier is less than 1.05.

Double-dip recession and policy options

It is reasonable to expect the Serbian economy to decline up to -1% in 2012. A double-dip recession is inevitable. Lessons from the previous recession in 2009 suggest that an expansionary fiscal policy has clear limits, and that any misalignment of economic policies might be highly costly. This time, in addition to a recession and lack of policy coordination, the Serbian economy is exposed to the political risk associated with new elections. All of these risks deserve proper attention. In this paper, we provide a growth forecast for 2012 and discuss three potential policy response options. Coordination between fiscal consolidation and monetary expansion is the preferred solution. However, no one should take this for granted, and even if it is adopted by the Serbian policy makers, the problem of unsustainable long-term growth will remain. The model developed in this paper is a New-Keynesian model, modified to tackle the issue of fiscal consolidation. We expect that the inflation targeting policy framework will prevail in 2012, despite its poor record, and that this provides a good reason for using DSGE models to simulate policy options.

Bayesian Analysis of Recursive SVAR Models with Overidentifying Restrictions

The paper provides a novel Bayesian methodological framework to estimate structural VAR (SVAR) models with recursive identification schemes that allows for the inclusion of over-identifying restrictions. The proposed framework enables the researcher to (i) elicit the prior on the non-zero contemporaneous relations between economic variables and to (ii) derive an analytical expression for the posterior distribution and marginal data density. We illustrate our methodological framework by estimating a backward looking New-Keynesian model taking into account prior beliefs about the contemporaneous coefficients in the Phillips curve and Taylor rule. JEL Classification: C11, C32, E47

A New-Keynesian Model of the Yield Curve with Learning Dynamics: A Bayesian Evaluation

We estimate a New-Keynesian macro-…nance model of the yield curve incorporating learning by private agents with respect to the long-run expectation of in‡ation and the equilibrium real interest rate. A preliminary analysis shows that some liquidity premia, expressed as a degree of mispricing relative to no-arbitrage restrictions, and time variation in the prices of risk are important features of the data. These features are, therefore, included in our learning model. The model is estimated on U.S. data using Bayesian techniques. The learning model succeeds in explaining the yield curve movements in terms of macroeconomic shocks. The results also show that the introduction of a learning dynamics is not su¢ cient to explain the rejection of the extended expectations hypothesis. The

Wage stickiness and unemployment fluctuations: an alternative approach

Erceg et al. (J Monet Econ 46:281–313, 2000) introduce sticky wages in a New-Keynesian general-equilibrium model. Alternatively, it is shown here how wage stickiness may bring unemployment fluctuations into a New-Keynesian model. Using a Bayesian econometric approach, both models are estimated with US quarterly data of the Great Moderation. Estimation results are similar in the two models and both provide a good empirical fit, with the crucial difference that our model delivers unemployment fluctuations. Thus, second-moment statistics of the US rate of unemployment are replicated reasonably well in our proposed New-Keynesian model with sticky wages. Demand-side shocks play a more important role than technology innovations or cost-push shock in explaining both output and unemployment fluctuations. In the welfare analysis, the cost of cyclical fluctuations during the Great Moderation is estimated at 0.60% of steady-state consumption.

General-equilibrium effects of investment tax incentives

A new-Keynesian model with a nominal tax system is developed and used to study the macroeconomic effects of temporary tax-based investment incentives. Two claims regarding the effects of these incentives are examined: first that they are overstated in partial-equilibrium frameworks; and second that repeated use of such incentives by policymakers can ultimately be destabilizing. The results contradict the first claim and imply that the second claim is not general. The model is also used to compute the predicted effects of an investment tax incentive that has figured prominently in recent fiscal stimulus packages.

The Optimality and Controllability of Discretionary Monetary Policy

This paper addresses two issues – the time-inconsistency of optimal policy and the controllability of target variables within new-classical and new-Keynesian model structures. We can resolve both issues by delegation. That is, we design central bank loss functions by determining the two target values and the weight between the two targets. With a single decision maker, the time-inconsistency issue does not exist; the target controllability issue does. Delegating the long-run target values (target variables’ equilibriums under the Ramsey optimal policy) and the same weight as society to the central bank can achieve Ramsey optimality and path controllability. With multiple decision makers (game), both issues of time-inconsistency and target controllability exist and the delegation becomes more complicated. The long-run target values can only achieve asymptotic, not path, controllability. Path controllability requires the delegation of short-run target values, which commits or binds the central bank to follow exactly the Ramsey optimal paths. The short-run inflation target value conforms to the macroeconomic structure (i.e., Phillips curve). With path controllability, the constant average and state-contingent inflation biases are removed. To eliminate the stabilization bias, the delegated weight must differ from society in a dynamic game. When the Phillips curve exhibits output (inflation) persistence, the central bank must place more weight on output (inflation) stabilization. When the Phillips curve exhibits principally forward-looking behavior, the delegated weight can require a conservative or liberal central bank. In sum, delegating certain short-run target values and a different weight can cause discretionary monetary policy to prove Ramsey optimal and path controllable in a dynamic game.