New Energy Vehicle Industry Research Articles

Impact of policy incentives on technological innovation and diffusion within the new-energy vehicle industry: an ecosystem approach

ABSTRACT In the context of developing emerging industries in China, this study examines the specific effects of policy incentives on new energy vehicle (NEV) technological innovation and constructs a susceptible-exposed-infected-recovered (SEIR) infection model to simulate the diffusion of the NEV technological innovation process. The results highlight four main findings. First, an inverted U-shaped relationship exists between government-supported policies and technological innovation in NEVs. Second, regulatory policies can significantly incentivize the innovative behaviour of NEV enterprises. Third, the effects of policy incentives are more evident in the technological innovation of non-state-owned enterprises than in state-owned enterprises. Fourth, the SEIR infection model shows that policy incentives significantly accelerate the process of utilising, optimising, and replacing technologies in the technology innovation ecosystem, significantly shortening the iterative process of the entire system.

The impact of policy mix characteristics of multi-level governance on innovation output of the new energy vehicle industry in China

ABSTRACT In policy practice, policy mixes have become the main means by which governments promote economic transformation and development. It has been verified that different policy mixes have different and distinct impacts on innovation activities. We studied the impact of the policy mix characteristics of a multilevel government on innovation activities. We theoretically explored the impact of the consistency, balance, and comprehensiveness of policy mixes of the three policy tools promulgated by the multi-level government of China on the innovation output of the new energy vehicle (NEV) industry. Our results suggest that: (1) Improving the consistency, balance, and comprehensiveness of a policy mix can promote the innovation output the NEV industry. (2) As the complexity of policy mixes increases, balanced characteristics are the most stable in terms of promoting the innovation output of the NEV industry. Therefore, when the government implements new policies, the consistency and comprehensiveness of the policy mix must be emphasised.

Switching gears: Evaluating Grid-to-Vehicle (G2V) and battery swap (BS) behaviors in new energy vehicles (NEVs) within a flexible institutional landscape

The transition to electric vehicles is a pivotal step towards achieving emission reductions and realizing the “double carbon” objectives in the transportation sector. This movement is heavily dependent on the development of a strong G2V and BS infrastructure, a task which embodies the motivation behind this study. As such, we seek to decipher the intrinsic challenges and opportunities resident in the G2V and BS systems, constructing vital questions around existing impediments and strategies that would foster a seamless transition to NEVs, integrating global insights and experiences from different nations into our enquiry. In view this, this paper proposes a tripartite institutional logic framework, which serves as a foundational structure encompassing government, automobile manufacturing enterprises, and consumers as pivotal stakeholders within an interconnected ecosystem. Building upon this comprehensive framework, we further advance our analysis by constructing a tripartite evolutionary game model and using a simulation with a case study to analyze the dynamic interplays of G2V and BS systems. The results show that: The BS mode has a higher efficacy in terms of energy efficiency and optimizing electricity usage compared to the G2V model; Proper subsidies for BS are necessary, as supported by simulations and case studies; The government must continue to support enterprise R&D efforts to advance the NEV industry; Increasing investment in infrastructure is essential to address issues related to the layout and compatibility of BS facilities among auto enterprises; Recognizing the positive impact of BS mode on the social and environmental aspects is vital; Accurate identification of consumer needs is crucial for promoting BS mode. Finally, policy recommendations are proposed to promote transportation sector, which provides theoretical support for policy makers.

Research on the New Power of Car Making Ideal Car

In response to the escalating depletion of fossil fuel reserves and the detrimental environmental impacts of conventional internal combustion engine vehicles, the global automotive industry is undergoing a transformative shift towards clean, sustainable, and energy-efficient new energy vehicles (NEVs). This article scrutinizes the remarkable ascent of Ideal Cars, a prominent player in the burgeoning Chinese NEV market. In light of these developments, this scholarly examination explores the multifaceted determinants underpinning Ideal Cars' remarkable trajectory, encompassing its foundational evolution, distinctive technological orientation, nuanced user-centric approach, financial performance, scene-based marketing strategies, and innovative organizational structure. This comprehensive analysis underscores the imperative nature of consumer-oriented product design, the psychological aspects of consumer satisfaction, and the paramount influence of market dynamics in shaping the success of high-end automotive ventures. Ideal Cars' unprecedented journey serves as an instructive case study for the prospective evolution of the NEV industry in China and globally.

Risk management of supply chain finance in the new energy vehicle industry: A comprehensive evaluation model

In recent years, the new energy vehicle (NEV) industry has rapidly grown and become a vital part of the automotive sector. Supply chain finance plays a critical role in the NEV industry as it affects the operation and development of the entire industry chain. The supply chain of NEVs is different from the traditional automobile industry due to its complexity, fragility, and forecasting difficulties. Managing the risks associated with supply chain finance in the NEV industry presents new challenges. Commercial banks need to establish scientific risk assessment models and take preventive measures to ensure the provision of financial services while safeguarding their funds. This study focuses on the supply chain financial services of NEVs provided by commercial banks. It employs various methods to assess financial risks, establishes a risk index model, and uses the analytic hierarchy process, entropy weight method, and fuzzy comprehensive evaluation to determine weights and provide risk assessment opinions. The proposed evaluation model effectively assesses risks and provides preventive measures with potential practical applications. Future research can further refine and apply this model to benefit enterprises and financial institutions in the NEV industry.

Optimizing the Growing Dual Credit Requirements for Automobile Manufacturers in China’s Dual Credit Policy

Dual credit policy (DCP) is a market-based mechanism introduced by the Chinese government to promote the new energy vehicle (NEV) industry and improve energy savings in China. To offer sufficient impetus for the NEV industry while providing sufficient transitional buffer time for automobile manufacturers (AMs), the government needs to scientifically design how to gradually increase its dual credit requirement for AMs year by year. To assist the multi-year DCP design, this paper proposes a generalized Nash equilibrium model to predict AMs’ short-term decisions (i.e., vehicle production and credit trading) and long-term decisions (i.e., investment in production capacity expansion and research and development) under any DCP, considering the interactions among AMs’ decisions, vehicle prices, and credit price. Based on the equilibrium model, we then develop a bi-level programming problem to optimize the multi-year DCP. With numerical experiments, we show that implementing the optimal DCP can effectively enhance the market share of NEVs. In the context of the optimal multi-year DCP, the credit requirements set by the government should maintain a relatively low threshold during the initial years, but rise rapidly after that. Such optimal DCP offers AMs sufficient transition time while compelling a quick shift in their developmental strategies.

Demand and supply gap analysis of Chinese new energy vehicle charging infrastructure: Based on CNN-LSTM prediction model

The sales of new energy vehicles (NEVs) and the construction of charging infrastructure promote and constrain each other. It is crucial for the development of the new energy vehicle industry to understand the gap clearly and accurately between the supply and demand of NEV charging infrastructure. In this paper, a neural network combined model based on convolutional neural network (CNN) and long and short-term memory (LSTM) is introduced for accurate prediction of NEVS sales and charging infrastructure ownership. Compared with other traditional and combined models, the CNN-LSTM combined model performs best in multiple evaluation metrics while using less computing power. The RMSE, MAE, MAPE, and R2 of the CNN-LSTM combined model were 52.80, 42.67, 17 %, and 0.78, respectively. Accordingly, it is sufficient to demonstrate the excellent prediction performance of the CNN-LSTM combined model constructed in this paper. The forecast results show that in 2025, the ratio of NEVs to public charging piles will rise to 10.2:1 and the ratio to private charging piles will fall to 2.5:1. The overall ratio shows a downward trend and is expected to reach 2:1. There is a gap in the demand for NEV charging infrastructure. Finally, this paper makes suggestions for narrowing the gap between the supply and demand of NEV charging infrastructure and the sustainable development of the NEV industry.

The Impact of Economic Systems and Financial Systems on New Energy Vehicle Industry

In the contemporary world, energy security and environmental protection are issues of significant concern for governments and citizens alike. New energy vehicles (NEVs) offer solutions to both of these pressing challenges. Hence, their development and innovation status are particularly noteworthy. The purpose of this paper is to compare the impacts of different economic systems and financial systems in the United States and China on the innovation and improvement of the NEV industry. Furthermore, the conclusions will be extended to a broader range of industries to delve to the relevance between institutions and technological innovation. This paper mainly compares the influence of economic systems on business activities, the differences in government policies under different systems, and the impact of financial systems on corporate financing and listing. It finds that the most suitable environment for the development of technology innovation industries is an open market economy and a sound economic system.

Choice of the co-opetition model for a new energy vehicle supply chain under government subsidies

We study the co-opetition model selection problem for a new energy vehicle (NEV) supply chain comprising a dominant manufacturer and a subordinate supplier. Given the impact of R&D subsidies on suppliers’ technological innovation, we consider two co-opetition models, namely wholesale co-opetition and patent licensing co-opetition, derive the optimal decisions of the models, and analyze the optimal selections for supply chain members. We also conduct extensive numerical studies to verify the research findings and generate practical insights. We find that patent licensing co-opetition is not necessarily beneficial to supply chain members. However, under certain conditions, patent licensing co-opetition can create a “win-win” situation for the supply chain. Furthermore, as the degree of product substitution increases under patent licensing co-opetition, the optimal retail prices of the manufacturer and supplier both decrease first and then increase, but their thresholds are different. In addition, the R&D cost coefficient positively affects the fixed cost of patent usage, but it does not affect the unit patent licensing fee. This study provides theoretical guidance for supply chain members to choose the optimal co-opetition models and has important practical significance for promoting the sustainable development of the NEV industry.

Research on the Development of Global New-Energy Vehicle Industry Under the Goal of Carbon Neutrality

As a pioneer in energy conservation and environmental protection new energy vehicles also play an important role in reducing carbon dioxide emissions. Carbon neutrality will become a long-term measure to reduce greenhouse gas emissions in the future and the new-energy vehicle industry should develop a path that is more in line with the goal of carbon neutrality.

The impact of government subsidies on R&D investment of listed companies in China's new energy vehicle industry-based on the perspective of industrial chain

ABSTRACT Over the past decade, Chinese government has invested large amounts of government subsidies to support the development of new energy vehicle (NEV) industry. Whether the government subsidy has achieved the expected effect and how to further adjust the subsidy policy to better promote the development of the NEV industry have received wide attention. This paper considers the characteristics of technological innovation and financing constraints of enterprises at different position of the NEV industry chain, and empirically test the incentive effect of government subsidies on R&D investment from the perspective of the industry chain. The research findings show that government subsidies promote the R&D investment of all enterprises in the NEV industry chain, however, the promotion effect on upstream and midstream enterprises is more significant. With the reduction of consumption subsidies, the promotion effect of government subsidies on the R&D investment of listed companies in the NEV industry has been strengthened. Further research finds that government subsidies promote R&D investment by alleviating the financing constraints of upstream and midstream enterprises. There is an industry chain synergy effect in the technological innovation of new energy vehicle enterprises, and government subsidies can promote this synergistic effect from upstream to downstream.

An integrated decision support framework for new energy vehicle evaluation based on regret theory and QUALIFLEX under Z-number environment

New energy vehicles (NEVs) are the future of the automotive industry, with their development being highly significant for the energy system and environment. An important challenge faced by the automotive industry is appropriately assessing NEVs, which acts an important role in the promotion of NEV products and development of the NEV industry. This paper constructs an integrated decision support framework to solve NEV evaluation problems on the basis of information reliability, decision perception, and criterion non-compensation. By this means, the Z-number is introduced to reliably characterise the information involved in the problems, a Z-number regret theory model is established to identify the perceived utility of information, and QUALIFLEX outranking exploitation techniques are presented to comprehensively process multiple criterion assessments. To demonstrate the applicability of the constructed decision framework, a case study of NEV evaluation in Zhuzhou City is carried out and the result analysis and management implication are conducted in detail. The study reveals that the pure electric vehicle is evaluated as the most suitable NEV for development and production in Zhuzhou. Crucially, the analysis results confirm that the constructed framework can effectively facilitate NEV evaluation.

Promoting the Development of China’s New-Energy Vehicle Industry in the Post-Subsidy Era: A Study Based on the Evolutionary Game Theory Method

Government policy constraints and the green credit support of banks have played an indispensable role in promoting the development of the new energy vehicle (NEV) industry. To study the relationship between the government, the banks, and automobile manufacturers in the post-subsidy era and to promote the development of the NEV industry in China, we constructed a tripartite evolutionary game model for the government, the banks, and automobile manufacturers during the subsidy decline, analyzed the evolutionary process of the system, and used MATLAB to simulate the evolutionary stable strategies (ESSs) and the sensitivity of related parameters. The results demonstrate the following: (1) There are five possible evolutionary equilibrium points in the early, middle, and late stages of the NEV industry; (2) with the increase in the phase-out rates and the transaction prices of NEV points, the government is more inclined to low subsidies, the banks are more inclined to implement green credit, and enterprises are more inclined to produce NEVs; (3) there is a threshold for the impact of government incentives on the evolutionary results of the government and the banks, beyond which the evolutionary process of the government and the banks will be unstable; (4) with the increase in financing costs saved by green credit, the government is more inclined to low subsidies and enterprises are more inclined to produce NEVs, while changes in financing costs have less impact on the strategies of banks. According to these findings, the government, the banks, and automobile manufacturers can be relied upon to promote the development of the NEV industry in China.

The Russia-Ukraine conflict and the automotive energy transition: Empirical evidence from China

What are the spillover effects of the Russia-Ukraine conflict? Are there other effects besides leading to an energy crisis? We analyze the impact of the Russia-Ukraine conflict on Chinese new energy vehicle (NEV) sales, and then on the Chinese automotive energy structure, based on data of Chinese NEV sales from March 2016 to August 2022, using the Chow test and ordinary least squares (OLS). The results show that, first, the outbreak of the Russia-Ukraine conflict caused a structural and abrupt increase in the sales of NEVs in China, which had a positive impact on the automotive energy structure in China. Second, compared to the impact on battery electric vehicle (BEV) sales, plug-in hybrid electric vehicles (PHEVs) are less affected by their ability to run on both oil and electricity. Third, the boosting effect is mainly realized through the change in the relative price of oil and electricity. Lastly, the positive impact further accelerates the transformation of China's automotive energy and transportation sectors and helps China achieve its dual carbon target at an early date. Overall, this study reveals the positive impact of the Russia-Ukraine conflict on China's automotive energy transition, providing policy insights for the development of the NEV industry.

An Evolutionary Analysis of Higher-Order Interaction Collaborative Innovation Networks in China’s New Energy Vehicle Industry

As a manifestation of technological innovation achievements, patents reflect the frontier of technological development in the field. The aim of this research is to investigate the spatial evolution of patent collaboration networks and cooperation activities in the Chinese new energy vehicle (NEV) industry. We hypothesize that the higher-order collaboration networks will exhibit the formation of triangle groups centered around core nodes and the emergence of key edges indicating their importance. Key organizations and partners will play a significant role in shaping the future direction of cooperative innovation. The research utilizes data on collaboration patents in the NEV industry in China and constructs higher-order interaction collaboration innovation networks. The spatial evolution of networks and patent cooperation activities are examined using simplex methods. The results indicate that the generalized degree distribution of nodes and edges follows a power-law distribution. Two-dimensional simplex networks gradually form triangle clusters centered on core nodes and key edges. Large companies and research institutes prefer high-depth collaboration, while universities prefer high-breadth collaboration. Furthermore, the development of the new energy vehicle industry has gradually shifted from the eastern region to the central region. In the two-dimensional simplex network, Beijing and Jiangsu play a crucial role as key bridges in fostering stable and deep collaborations. The findings of this study shed light on the spatial evolution of patent collaboration networks and cooperation activities in the Chinese NEV industry. The identification of key organizations and partners, as well as the central positions of certain regions, provides valuable insights for innovation organizations in navigating innovation development and selecting collaboration partners.

How critical mineral supply security affects China NEVs industry? Based on a prediction for chromium and cobalt in 2030

As an important means to enhance energy security and air pollution pressure, new energy vehicles (NEVs) are regarded as a strategic emerging industry in China, as its industrial development is severely constrained by the availability of critical minerals. Nevertheless, the existing literature lacks empirical studies on the impact of supply security of critical minerals on the development of China's NEVs industry. In this paper, we investigated the influence mechanism of chrome and cobalt supply security on the development of China’s NEVs industry by using the multivariate stepwise regression method and predicted China’s NEVs long-term production scale in 2030 by adopting the gray prediction model. The results indicate that: (1) The supply security of chrome in China has a positive contribution to the production of NEVs; (2) As an important raw material for battery production, the growth rate of NEVs increases significantly when the supply of cobalt is secured, and is expected to be 30 times higher by 2030 than in 2020; and (3) Driven by the government's energy-saving and environmental protection policies, the production of NEVs is on a sharp upward trend, and it is expected that NEVs output will reach 485.883 million units in 2030. Finally, relevant policy recommendations are proposed based on these findings. The government should take various measures to expand the supply channels, improve the comprehensive utilization of mineral resources to ensure the safe supply of cobalt, chrome, and other mineral resources, and promote the growth of NEVs.

Did China's dual-credit policy promote innovation in new energy vehicle enterprises? An empirical study based on the PSM-DID method

IntroductionBased on the microdata of 36 A-share new energy vehicle (NEV) enterprises from 2015 to 2021, this study empirically investigates whether the introduction of the double credit policy (DCP) promoted the innovation of NEV enterprises.MethodsThe propensity score matching difference-in-differences (PSM-DID) method was used.ResultsThe following results were found. First, the introduction of the DCP inhibits the innovation of NEV enterprises. However, as the DCP stabilizes, the inhibitory effect gradually decreases and shows a tendency to turn into a facilitating effect. Second, the DCP affects the innovation output of enterprises by influencing their research and development (R&D) investment. R&D investment has a mediating role in the DCP, affecting the innovation of new energy vehicle enterprises. Third, at the firm level, the inhibitory effect of the DCP is more evident in non-state-owned enterprises (non-SOE) and insignificant for state-owned enterprises (SOE), while at the regional level, the inhibitory effect of the DCP is more evident for non-eastern regions and insignificant for eastern regions.DiscussionThis study finds the inhibitory effect of the implementation of the DCP on the innovation of NEV enterprises and have potential guiding significance for the future formulation of NEV market development policies and the promotion of high-quality development of the NEV industry.

Development of New-Energy Vehicles under the Carbon Peaking and Carbon Neutrality Strategy in China

China regards the development of new energy vehicles (NEVs) as an important breakthrough to achieve the periodic goals of carbon peaking and carbon neutrality. After decades of development, China’s NEVs industry has made significant progress, especially in the past 20 years, where the industry has transformed from a follower to a leader. This article reviews the development background of NEVs in China and reflects the development status of NEVs in different periods of China. The development of NEVs in China was analyzed through data, reflecting the current development status and trends. Combined with the policy background of carbon peaking and carbon neutrality, the position of NEV industry in China’s automobile submarket, domestic market, and international market is analyzed. Based on the analysis and discussion, the main issues faced by the development of NEVs in China were proposed, including the impact of subsidy policy withdrawal on car companies and consumers, the construction and development of infrastructure, the research and development of core technologies and components, and the construction of a clean energy system based on sustainable development. It is proposed that the future development direction of China’s NEV industry can follow the directions of electrification, intelligence, lightweight, and sustainable development.

Policy incentives, government subsidies, and technological innovation in new energy vehicle enterprises: Evidence from China

As the first step toward establishing the development of new energy vehicles (NEVs) as a national strategic priority, China's New Energy Vehicle Pilot City (NEVPC) policy has far-reaching significance for helping to develop China's capabilities in NEV industry. The existing literature focuses on the city- and industry-level impacts of this policy but ignores the important role of individual enterprises as innovation agents. In addition, in assessing the policy's effects technological innovation for NEV enterprises is typically measured in terms of output quantity, with no emphasis on innovation efficiency. This study uses balanced panel data from 2006 to 2020 covering 196 listed Chinese NEV enterprises to examine the mechanism and impact of the NEVPC policy on technological innovation within NEV enterprises. We show that the policy has achieved the goal of expanding government subsidies and had a significantly positive impact on the number of technological innovations produced by these enterprises, via a partial mediation effect. However, neither the policy nor the mechanism of government subsidies is effective in improving the efficiency of technological innovations for NEV enterprises. These results have important implications for formulating and improving policies for the NEV industry.

Can the new energy vehicles (NEVs) and power battery industry help China to meet the carbon neutrality goal before 2060?

China is working to boost the manufacture, market share, sales, and use of NEVs to replace fuel vehicles in transportation sector to get carbon reduction target by 2060. In this research, using Simapro life cycle assessment software and Eco-invent database, the market share, carbon footprint, and life cycle analysis of fuel vehicles, NEVs, and batteries were calculated from the last five years to next 25 years, with a focus on the sustainable development. Results indicate globally, China had 293.98 m vehicles and 45.22% worldwide highest market share, followed by Germany with 224.97 m and 42.22% shares. Annually China's NEVs production rate is 50%, and sales account for 35%, while the carbon footprint will account for 5.2 E+07 to 4.89 E+07 kgCO2e by 2021–2035. The power battery production 219.7 GWh reaches 150%–163.4%, whereas carbon footprint values in production and use stage of 1 kWh of LFP 44.0 kgCO2eq, NCM-146.8 kgCO2eq, and NCA-370 kgCO2eq. The single carbon footprint of LFP is smallest at about 5.52 E+09, while NCM is highest at 1.84 E+10. Thus, using NEVs, and LFP batteries will reduce carbon emissions by 56.33%–103.14% and 56.33% or 0.64 Gt to 0.006 Gt by 2060. LCA analysis of NEVs and batteries at manufacturing and using stages quantified the environmental impact ranked from highest to lowest as ADP > AP > GWP > EP > POCP > ODP. ADP(e) and ADP(f) at manufacturing stage account for 14.7%, while other components account for 83.3% during the use stage. Conclusive findings are higher sales and use of NEVs, LFP, and reduction in coal-fired power generation from 70.92% to 50%, and increase in renewable energy sources in electricity generation expectedly will reduce carbon footprint by 31% and environmental impact on acid rain, ozone depletion, and photochemical smog. Finally, to achieve carbon neutrality in China, the NEVs industry must be supported by incentive policies, financial aid, technological improvements, and research and development. This would improve NEV's supply, demand, and environmental impact.