Neutrality Of Money Research Articles

Long-run neutrality and superneutrality of money in South American economies

This article tests long-run money neutrality and superneutrality for all South American economies from 1960 to 2009. Several of these economies have experienced bouts of hyperinflation. The tests, done for M1 and M2, utilize Fisher and Seater's (1993) procedure. Money neutrality could not be rejected for both monetary aggregates for Brazil, Chile, Colombia, Guyana, Suriname, Uruguay and Venezuela, but was rejected for Argentina, Bolivia, Ecuador, Paraguay and Peru. Of the countries for which superneutrality could be tested, it was not rejected for both monetary aggregates for Bolivia, Brazil, Chile and for M2 for Colombia, Guyana, and Uruguay, but was rejected for Argentina and Peru.

Endogenous money, circuits and financialization

The paper locates the endogenous money approach in a circuitist framework. It argues for the significance of the credit creation process for the evolution of the economy and the absence of any notion of ‘neutrality of money’. Clearing banks are distinguished from other financial institutions as the providers of initial finance in a circuit whereas other financial institutions operate in a final finance circuit. Financialisation is here viewed in terms of the growth of financial assets and liabilities, of non-bank financial institutions and changes in the predominant flow of funds between firms, households and rentiers. Some of the issues for the way in which the circuit analysis is developed are considered.

Keynes's theories of money and banking in the <i>Treatise</i> and <i>The General Theory</i>

This paper identifies what seem to have been the five main issues in contention in monetary theory, both historically and in the current era, and discusses the view that J.M. Keynes took on each of them in the Treatise on Money and The General Theory. The key issues in monetary theory are the ontology of money, endogenous versus exogenous money, interest-rate determination, the choice of the monetary policy instrument, and the neutrality versus non-neutrality of money.

On recursive utility and the superneutrality of money

This paper investigates whether a change in the growth rate of the money supply enhances the rate of capital accumulation in a cash-in-advance monetary model with recursive utility. Although money is superneutral in the steady state, the effect of the growth rate of money supply on the speed of capital accumulation depends not only on the curvature of the felicity, but also on the slope and curvature of the discount rate function. We find that when the discount rate decreases with consumption and the elasticity of marginal utility is greater than unity, inflation yields a slower speed of capital accumulation.

The Money Neutrality Proposition: Is Boosting Money Supply A Solution To US Economic Problems?

This paper unfastens the new classical structural model and broadens the reduced form output equation to investigate the money neutrality proposition in the United States. The hypothesis that any predictable monetary policy has no influence on output is extended by the inclusion of foreign exchange rationing to the supply side of the economy as cointegrated with money supply. The final prediction error determines the proper lag length that is used by the dynamic analysis to examine the causality relationship between imports, foreign price, foreign income, and output. The vector autoregressive is used to determine the exogeneity property of foreign exchange and output; it also helps extract the anticipated and unanticipated components of foreign exchange and money series. Empirical evidence provides considerable support for short run cyclical movements in the output of highly industrialized countries in affecting the real output in the United States. Indeed, any policy response in raising output should take into account the well-being of other developed countries. Predicted or not, an increase in the level of growth of other advanced countries does not leads to offsetting expectation and results in raising the economic growth. Empirical test presents no evidence that boosting the money supply leads to an increase in the level of growth. The result also refutes the view that the United States can quickly recover through a monetary policy aimed at depreciating the dollar and stands against the idea that devaluation tends to expand domestic output in industrialized countries. Incompatible with the economic logic is the lack of support of the apparent reality of output determination in industrialized countries open economy models.

The long-run impact of inflation in South Africa

This paper evaluates the hypothesis of long-run super-neutrality of money (LRSN) within the context of the South African economy. The long-run impact of inflation on the interest rate and subsequently, output is estimated by employing a trivariate structural vector autoregression model, using quarterly data for the period of 1960:1 to 2010:1. The estimation results suggest that the hypothesis of LRSN cannot be rejected, thereby suggesting that monetary policy in South Africa cannot be used to solve the large and persistent unemployment problem in South Africa, which is understandable, since unemployment is inherently structural and is due to skills-shortage. This is further supported by our one of our other results which shows that significant long-run impact on output is obtained from technological improvements.

A Study on Lucas’ “Expectations and the Neutrality of Money”—II

A Study on Lucas’ “Expectations and the Neutrality of Money”—II

A Multivariate Long-Run Money Neutrality Investigation: Empirical Evidence for CAMEU

We examine the long run neutrality of money, in Central Africa Monetary and Economic Union (CAMEU) economies applying the multivariate methodology of King and Watson, using M2 and real output during the period 1970-2008. Tests consistently reject the long run money neutrality hypothesis. It is found that M2 has significant and positive impacts on real output of all CAMEU countries except for Gabon. The results are robust under other monetary aggregate variables and various sub-periods. In addition, the estimated coefficients are stable under two breakpoints corresponding to the dates of central bank reforms and devaluation of the local currency.

Testing the Long Run Neutrality of Money in Developing Economies: Evidence from EMCCA

We examine the long run neutrality of money, (LMN, hereafter), in the Economic and Monetary Community of Central Africa (EMCCA) countries, applying Fisher and Seater (1993) Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA) methodology, using different monetary aggregates, money supply in the strict sense (M1), money supply in the large sense (M2) and domestic credit (credit to private sector) during the period 1978-2008. Tests consistently reject the LMN hypothesis. It is found that monetary aggregates have significant and positive impacts on real Gross Domestic Product (GDP) for all EMCCA countries. The results are robust under various sub-periods and the estimated coefficients are stable under two breakpoints corresponding to the dates of central bank reforms and devaluation of the local currency.

External Sector Rebalancing and Endogenous Trade Imbalance Models

I discuss the need for trade models to incorporate endogenous trade imbalances both to more adequately capture the reality of a global economy with large imbalances and pressures from the finan cial crisis for countries to reduce imbalances. Conventional general equilibrium trade models implicitly incorporate monetary neutrality and either have zero trade balance as a property of equilibrium, or have a fixed and exogenous trade imbalance. Models which are discussed here have a variety of forms. In one, central banks fix exchange rates and operate a non accommodative monetary policy and accumulate reserves. Changes in both trade and monetary policies change reserve accumulative and with the external sector imbalances. This is a reflection of China’s current policy regime. In another intertemporal preferences allow for simultaneous inter commodity and intertemporal trade across countries, and with changed intertemporal trade changed external sector imbalances within the period. These formulations are each applied to potential tax initiatives to aid in rebalancing.

Growth and welfare effects of monetary policy with endogenous fertility

This paper investigates the economic growth and social welfare implications of monetary policy in an endogenous growth model with endogenous fertility. We show that, in the money-in-the-utility-function framework, endogenous fertility governs the validity of money superneutrality, the transitional dynamics of an anticipated monetary policy, and the optimal monetary policy. Along a balanced growth path, monetary growth increases fertility and reduces the economic growth rate if consumption and real balances are complements or are independent. However, monetary expansion may decrease fertility and increase economic growth if consumption and real balances are substitutes. Generally speaking, the superneutrality of money does not hold in the presence of endogenous fertility. More importantly, with endogenous fertility, the Friedman (1969) rule is no longer a welfare-maximizing monetary policy. We also show that an anticipated inflation induces the transitional dynamics of fertility and the economic growth rate even though the intertemporal elasticity of substitution equals unity. This differs from the conventional notion in the existing literature.

The New Neoclassical Synthesis and the Role of Monetary Policy

Macroeconomics is moving toward a New Neoclassical Synthesis, which like the synthesis of the 1960s melds Classical with Keynesian ideas. This paper describes the key features of the new synthesis and its implications for the role of monetary policy. We find that the New Neoclassical Synthesis rationalizes an activist monetary policy which is a simply system of inflation targets. Under this neutral monetary policy, real quantities evolve as suggested in the literature on real business cycles. Going beyond broad principles, we use the new synthesis to address several operational aspects of inflation targeting. These include its practicality, the response to oil shocks, the choice of price index, the design of a mandate, and the tactics of interest rate policy.

On model ambiguity and money neutrality

We solve for the equilibrium of a stochastic neo-classical continuous time model without and with money under model ambiguity. We show that: (i) the correction for ambiguity stemming from the money supply is nil at equilibrium; (ii) money is neutral with respect to the stock market equilibrium (the equity risk premium); (iii) money is not neutral with respect to consumption and capital accumulation, and its effect may be quantitatively substantial; (iv) the preference for model robustness affects all the real economic variables as well as the expected inflation rate and the nominal interest rate.

Neutral Money: Historical Fact or Analytical Artifact?

Long-run neutrality of money is an artifact of a particular theoretical framework. We advance an alternative though not contradictory theoretical framework where monetary processes exert lasting real effects. Our framework holds without rejecting the classical equilibrium condition that nominal values are independent of economic realities because the two frameworks are non-commensurable. The real effects that we explore stem from the distribution of monetary injection among potential entrepreneurial experiments. The selected experiments influence the pattern of activity within society, which leads to changes in the standard given conditions of wants, knowledge, and expectations. These changes unravel into alternative paths of history.

Dual nominal anchors in the Caribbean

PurposeThe purpose of this paper is twofold. First, it estimates the sterilization coefficients for several Caribbean countries. Second, it contributes to the literature by providing a conceptual framework for understanding why regional economies with fully pegged exchange rate regimes have not allowed the money supply to be endogenous to capital flows. This paper notes that a high sterilization coefficient plus a de facto pegged exchange rate indicates the existence of dual nominal anchors.Design/methodology/approachThe paper presents a simple theoretical model to explain this phenomenon. The model combines the liquidity preference of commercial banks with an augmented uncovered interest parity equation.FindingsThe econometric evidence presented shows that several Caribbean economies with fixed exchange rate regimes also possess high sterilization coefficients. Given open capital accounts in the various economies, the paper argues that this finding contravenes the money neutrality thesis, which holds that only one nominal anchor can prevail in the long term.Originality/valueThe model emphasizes that the interest rate formation and liquidity preference of oligopolistic commercial banks – the dominant financial institutions in a post‐liberalized setting – prevents counteracting capital movements when monetary policy changes above or along a threshold or bank mark‐up interest rate.

Does history matter?: Empirical analysis of evolutionary versus stationary equilibrium views of the economy

The evolutionary vision in which history matters is of an evolving economy driven by bursts of technological change initiated by agents facing uncertainty and producing long term, path-dependent growth and shorter-term, non-random investment cycles. The alternative vision in which history does not matter is of a stationary, ergodic process driven by rational agents facing risk and producing stable trend growth and shorter term cycles caused by random disturbances. We use Carlaw and Lipsey’s simulation model of non-stationary, sustained growth driven by endogenous, path-dependent technological change under uncertainty to generate artificial macro data. We match these data to the New Classical stylized growth facts. The raw simulation data pass standard tests for trend and difference stationarity, exhibiting unit roots and cointegrating processes of order one. Thus, contrary to current belief, these tests do not establish that the real data are generated by a stationary process. Real data are then used to estimate time-varying NAIRU’s for six OECD countries. The estimates are shown to be highly sensitive to the time period over which they are made. They also fail to show any relation between the unemployment gap, actual unemployment minus estimated NAIRU and the acceleration of inflation. Thus there is no tendency for inflation to behave as required by the New Keynesian and earlier New Classical theory. We conclude by rejecting the existence of a well-defined a short-run, negatively sloped Philips curve, a NAIRU, a unique general equilibrium, short and long-run, a vertical long-run Phillips curve, and the long-run neutrality of money.

Metalistas x papelistas: origens teóricas e antecedentes do debate entre monetaristas e desenvolvimentistas

O artigo analisa o debate entre metalismo e papelismo, ocorrido no Brasil, na segunda metade do século XIX, e defende que esta última foi uma das correntes que contribuíram para a gênese do desenvolvimentismo. Para tanto, retoma as controvérsias monetárias da Inglaterra, desde o início daquele século, e nelas identifica as origens teóricas do debate brasileiro, com destaque especial à questão referente à neutralidade ou não da moeda. A seguir, mostra como esse foi adaptado às peculiaridades da economia brasileira, com ênfase à opção dos papelistas pelo crescimento, rompendo com a ortodoxia da época. A influência no desenvolvimentismo nascente é trabalhada empiricamente por meio de manifestações assumidas por Getúlio Vargas, já que esse foi o personagem central do Estado desenvolvimentista, que marcou a experiência histórica brasileira após 1930.

Long-Run Neutrality Controversy in a Developing Economy : The Nigerian Example

This paper uses post independence quarterly data to examine the validity of two long-run neutrality Propositions in Nigeria. over all, there is qualified evidence that suggests the existence of long-run monetary neutrality and evidence that refutes the existence of the long-run fisher relation between prices and interest rates. The evidence on long-run monetary neutrality is qualified because it holds under the assumptions of contemporaneous money exogniety and contemporaneous monetary neutrality. As a consequence, our results inform our deductions about the ineffectiveness of the monetarist anti-inflationary, prescriptions for managing the macroeconomy of a developing country like Nigeria. Pursuing a synchronized and coordinated fiscal monetary policies framework

State-dependent pricing and the non-neutrality of money

Golosov and Lucas (2007) have challenged the view that infrequent price adjustments by firms explain why money has aggregate real output effects. The basis of their challenge is the ‘selection effect’ – re-setting firms are not selected at random, they are those firms whose prices are furthest from the optimal reset price. Because of this the aggregate price level is sufficiently flexible for monetary neutrality. In this paper I add price review costs to an otherwise standard Golosov and Lucas model. This weakens the selection effect and restores monetary non-neutrality.

Metas de inflação, regra de Taylor e neutralidade da moeda: uma crítica pós-keynesiana

Inflation targeting, Taylor rule and money neutrality: a post-Keynesian critic. This paper critically discusses the inflation targeting regime proposed by orthodox economists, in particular the Taylor Rule. The article describes how the Taylor Rule assumes the argument of money neutrality inherited from the Quantitative Theory of Money. It discusses critically the ways of operation of the rule, and the negative impacts of the interest rate over the potential output. In this sense, the article shows the possible vicious circles of the monetary policy when money is not neutral, as is the case for post-keynesian economists. The relation of interest rates, potential output and the output gap is illustrated in some estimates using the methodology of