Net-zero Target Research Articles

The cost and climate impact of myopic investment decisions in the chemical industry

Rapid demand growth would double GHG emissions of fossil-based chemicals and plastics production by 2050. In contrast, recycling, biomass utilization, and electrification enable pathways to net-zero GHG emissions. Such pathways often compare the costs of fossil and renewable technologies based on the next 30 years. However, this assumption contrasts the timeframes of legislative periods and investors desiring fast returns, leading to myopic (i.e., short-term) investment decisions. Therefore, this study compares pathways based on long-term with myopic decision-making. While a 20-year foresight still achieves net zero by 2050, a 10-year foresight fails the net-zero target and increases cumulated GHG emission by 43%. Moreover, the chemical industry would invest +307 bn-USD (+3.2%) in additional fossil and, thus, potentially stranded assets. Therefore, industry and investors should account for the environmental and economic impacts of myopic decision-making and practice long-term decision-making to mitigate carbon lock-ins, stranded assets, and financial risks for investors.

Analysis of current state, gaps, and opportunities for technologies in the Malaysian oil palm estates and palm oil mills towards net-zero emissions

Malaysia is the second largest producer and exporter of palm oil. Though several works have explored achieving emissions reduction in the palm oil sector, there existing gaps in analysing pathways for achieving net-zero emissions. Moreover, there are limited studies that evaluate the potential of palm oil biomass utilisation pathways based on emissions reduction capabilities, the cost of emissions reduction, and the technology readiness for implementation. Therefore, this study analysed decarbonisation pathways for the upstream and midstream segments of the palm oil sector in Malaysia, encompassing oil palm plantations and palm oil mills. Various sources of greenhouse gas emissions in oil palm plantations and palm oil mills were identified and estimates of emissions were determined as theoretical emissions. The current emissions were established based on the current best practice in the plantation and mill. Several biomass conversion technologies for the recovery of palm-based by-products and conversion into value-added products to decarbonise the palm oil sector and evaluated strategies to attain net-zero status are considered. In this work, the analysis considered both the existing technologies that are adopted by plantations and mills as well as the emerging technologies that have scope for implementation. With the proposed approach, the current emissions level for crude palm oil (CPO) production in Malaysia is estimated as 1121.49 kg CO2-eq/t CPO. In current industry practice, empty fruit bunch (EFB) is underutilised as mills are typically located at rural areas with lack of suitable transportation. Besides, the lack of accessibility to the grid also limits the potential of converting EFB into electricity as supply for national grid. This work examined various pathways for EFB utilisation under different scenarios evaluating their contribution potential towards net-zero target in an energy self-sustained CPO production. As shown in the results, converting EFB to briquettes and pellets are able to achieve the net-zero objective. Furthermore, EFB-biochar and EFB-syngas pathways also exhibit the potential to accomplish the net-zero target. Note that this work also assessed the technologies’ readiness levels, identified challenges in implementation, and proposed several recommendations.

Simultaneous geraniol and citronellol transesterification using Pseudomonas fluorescens lipase for the production of fragrance and flavour esters: A kinetic study

This study aims to develop, for the very first time, a kinetic model for the simultaneous transesterification of geraniol and citronellol using Pseudomonas fluorescens lipase to produce their respective esters. This allows us to test the feasibility of the bioprocess and comprehend the enzyme behaviour, fine-tune process efficiency, and predict process performance. Geranyl and citronellyl esters are key ingredients in fragrance and flavour formulations in the food sector, as well as bioactive compounds for pest and insect repellents in the agricultural sector. Unlocking a greener and sustainable production of these terpene esters directly from plant-derived essential oil is crucial to meet the 2050 net zero targets to produce bio-based chemicals. The simultaneous transesterification of geraniol and citronellol in a batch reactor successfully achieved conversions of 66 % for citronellol and 94 % for geraniol within 5 h. Key optimum conditions were 1:8 molar ratio (geraniol:vinyl acetate), an enzyme loading of 10 wt % of geraniol, temperature of 40 °C, and a stirring speed of 250 RPM. The results indicated that simultaneous transesterification followed a ternary complex mechanism with competitive inhibition by alcohol. Initial testing of rose geranium oil under optimised conditions yielded 32 % citronellol and 50 % geraniol conversion after 30 h. Overall, this study shows promise as a green pathway utilising enzyme catalysis to selectively produce esters from diverse terpene mixtures and can be extended to terpene alcohols derived from flower essential oils.

Residual emissions and carbon removal towards Japan’s net-zero goal: a multi-model analysis

We study Japan’s net-zero emissions target by 2050 in a multi-model framework, focusing on residual emissions and carbon dioxide removal (CDR). Four energy-economic and integrated assessment models show similar but stronger strategies for the net-zero target, compared to the previous, low-carbon policy target (80% emissions reduction). Results indicate that around 90% (inter-model median) of the current emissions are reduced through abatement, including improved energy efficiency and cleaner electricity and fuels. Models deploy new options such as CDR based on carbon capture and storage (CCS) (bioenergy with CCS and direct air carbon dioxide capture and storage) and hydrogen to achieve net zero. The scale of CCS-based CDR deployment reaches an inter-model median of 132Mt-CO2/yr. The median hydrogen share of final energy in 2050 increases from 0.79% to 6.9% between the low-carbon and net-zero scenarios. The CDR sensitivity analysis reveals that limiting the use of CDR significantly increases the mitigation costs for net zero. Achieving Japan’s net-zero goal will require exploring methods to reduce residual emissions, including demand-side solutions, and accelerating responsible CDR policies.

Forerunner city or net-zero opportunist? Carbon dioxide removal in Stockholm, residual emissions and risks of mitigation deterrence

The City of Stockholm aims to achieve net-zero emissions by 2030 by compensating for residual emissions using bioenergy with carbon capture and storage (BECCS). Relying heavily on negative emissions to reach the target, the city's strategy presents an interesting case of net-zero climate policymaking. Based on the analysis of interviews, City Council debates, and policy documents, the Stockholm case underscores the importance of understanding municipal climate policy in a multi-level policy setting, where the ability to govern emissions varies heavily between sectors depending on politics and policy at other levels of governance. Both waste incineration and road transport are perceived to include hard-to-abate emissions in 2030, partly due to governance linkages involving regional, national, and EU-level governing bodies. The energy utility, Stockholm Exergi, plans to implement BECCS, with funding from the EU and other public and private sources, at a heat and power plant. The unique opportunity to use BECCS as part of the city's net-zero target has made it possible to advance the net-zero goal from 2040 to 2030. However, there are risks that relying on BECCS may muffle public debate on what constitutes residual emissions in the city, subsequently leading to smaller municipal investments in emission reductions. Additionally, there are risks that the schedule for implementing BECCS is overly optimistic, meaning goal fulfilment may be threatened. However, this risk is not isolated to BECCS; similar risks are associated with combining fossil fuels with CCS. We recommend that the city critically examines the residual emissions, considers separate targets instead of a net-zero goal, and conducts risk assessments of key mitigation technologies to maintain its status as climate policy forerunner.

Testing the Ambition Loop: Do Country- and Company-Level Net-Zero Targets Reinforce Each Other? A Global Comparison

One theory about company- and country-level climate actions is that they interact with one another through a mutually reinforcing “ambition loop”. Using publicly available data on country- and company-level net-zero targets, our econometric analysis reveals a positive relationship between state and company: A country introducing a domestic net-zero target in law increases the likelihood of companies introducing their own voluntary targets and vice-versa. Our findings offer important insights into the mechanisms of climate governance—knowledge that will be critical if we are to meet global net-zero targets by 2050.

Assessing the Costs of Commercialising Tidal Energy in the UK

There is a need for increased renewable energy to meet net-zero targets and decarbonise the economy. Harnessing the predictable power of the tides with tidal stream turbines can contribute to this. Tidal energy is a nascent technology with higher costs at present. However, cost reductions have been observed with an increased deployment in other renewable energy technologies that have received financial support, and it is postulated that similar will happen with tidal energy. The first tidal stream projects have been awarded market support in the UK through the Contracts for Difference (CfD) scheme, with almost 100 MW expected to be commissioned by 2028. This work uses learning rates to investigate how much investment in ongoing market support might be needed to achieve cost reductions through subsidised deployment alongside research and innovation. Using a range of informed ‘what if?’ scenarios, it shows sensitivity to key inputs. The results show that the support needed is most sensitive to the learning rate, reducing it from 15% to 12.5% or 10% doubles or more than quadruples the investment required, respectively. The support is also highly dependent on the starting cost from which learning occurs, taken as the CfD Strike Price in 2025. Varying this between 156 and 220 GBP/MWh results in total investment of GBP 6.7 and 22.3 bn, respectively. Most importantly, a balance is needed between subsidising deployment to drive down costs through learning and funding innovation to maintain a high learning rate.

Public perceptions on carbon removal from focus groups in 22 countries

Carbon removal is emerging as a pillar of governmental and industry commitments toward achieving Net Zero targets. Drawing from 44 focus groups in 22 countries, we map technical and societal issues that a representative sample of publics raise on five major types of carbon removal (forests, soils, direct air capture, enhanced weathering, and bioenergy with carbon capture and storage), and how these translate to preferences for governance actors, mechanisms, and rationales. We assess gaps and overlaps between a global range of public perceptions and how carbon removal is currently emerging in assessment, innovation, and decision-making. In conclusion, we outline key societal expectations for informing assessment and policy: prioritize public engagement as more than acceptance research; scrutiny and regulation of industry beyond incentivizing innovation; systemic coordination across sectors, levels, and borders; and prioritize underlying causes of climate change and interrelated governance issues.

Design and optimisation of a 20 MW offshore wind turbine blade

In the global pursuit of Net Zero emissions by 2050, wind turbines have become a leading solution. These renewable energy generators offer a trifecta of benefits, significantly reducing CO2 emissions, minimizing environmental impact, and delivering cost-competitive clean power. However, the key to maximizing their potential lies in the aerodynamic design of the turbine blades. By improving the blade performance, researchers and engineers can significantly increase wind energy capture, propelling wind turbines to the forefront of the global transition to a sustainable future. Higher power generating wind turbines are needed to reach the Net Zero target. By upscaling the “DTU 10 MW Reference Wind Turbine”, this research has achieved an aerodynamically stable 20 MW offshore wind turbine blade design. Variable rotation speed and variable pitch angle configurations have been considered to achieve an ideal power curve. The aerodynamic performance has been evaluated and quantified for a length optimised blade design, wherein the power and thrust have been increased by 80.84% and 88.67%, respectively, at a rated wind velocity of 12 m/s.

Assessment of CO2 abatement potential of heat pumps using pinch analysis for the Swiss chocolate industry

Decarbonizing industrial processes is crucial for achieving net-zero targets, with process heat electrification emerging as a key pathway. Heat pumps (HPs) are pivotal for this transition. This study introduces a novel methodology to construct exemplar profiles for specific energy demands, representative profiles for various production capacities, and energy demand profiles at product, subsector, or sector levels, using Swiss chocolate production as a case study. Exemplar profiles offer flexibility in generating representative profiles based on production capacities, aiding in identifying integration opportunities and sizes for HPs. Sector-wide profiles provide a broader perspective, aiding in visualizing bottom-up sector-wide potential for HPs. Based on the analysis of four representative profiles for Swiss chocolate production, two potential standard heat pump (SHP) and three high-temperature heat pump (HTHP) integration opportunities were identified. Techno-economic data from 30 commercially available HPs were collected, assessing their cost-effectiveness for Swiss chocolate manufacturing using the levelized cost of saved energy and CO2 abatement. Factors such as company size and electricity and natural gas prices impact the cost-effectiveness of HP integration. Despite variations, HPs with real coefficients of performance above 2.6 generally prove cost-effective for average energy prices and current CO2 levies in Swiss chocolate production. Bottom-up estimations of HP integration potentials using product-specific energy demand profiles suggest a potential reduction of CO2 emissions by up to 56% and an improvement in energy efficiency by up to 28% in Swiss chocolate production.

Leading the post-industrial revolution? Policy windows, issue linkage and decarbonization dynamics in the UK’s net-zero strategy (2010–2022)

Abstract Industrial decarbonization and the net-zero climate strategy has arisen as one of the most important policy challenges of the modern era. But how do industrial decarbonization policy efforts link with other issues? The UK claims to be the first major economy in the world to posit a net-zero target. In this paper, drawn from an original qualitative dataset involving expert interviews (N = 46), site visits (N = 20), and a review of the literature, we explore ongoing policy windows and efforts to decarbonize both the Humber and Merseyside. These regions have aggressive implementation plans in place for the deployment of net-zero infrastructure, with Zero Carbon Humber and HyNet seeking billions of dollars of investment to build green and blue hydrogen facilities coupled with carbon storage networks. These two clusters are leading national net-zero ambitions, with actual, enforceable timetables to achieve decarbonization. Investigating the unfolding efforts being undertaken by these two regions to decarbonize industry offers insight into the “green gold rush” and nascent business opportunities in the so-called carbon economy, including large-scale investment of capital into the policies nominally designed to tackle climate change. Through the identification of 24 different issues linked to decarbonization, the paper also offers more conceptual depth into the interplay between policy windows and issue linkage, which coevolve and shape each other as net-zero ambitions solidify.

Net-zero energy management through multi-criteria optimizations of a hybrid solar-hydrogen energy system for a laboratory in Toronto, Canada

Hydrogen production and storage in hybrid systems is a promising solution for sustainable energy transition, decoupling energy generation from demand and boosting the deployment of renewable energy. Nonetheless, the optimal and cost-effective design of hybrid hydrogen-based systems is crucial to tackle existing limitations in the diffusion of these systems. The present study explores net-zero energy management via a multi-objective optimization algorithm for an outdoor test facility equipped with a hydrogen-based hybrid energy production system. Aimed at enabling efficient integration of hydrogen fuel cell system, the proposed solution attempts to maximize the renewable factor (RF) and carbon mitigation in the hybrid system as well as to minimize the grid dependency and the life cycle cost (LCC) of the system. In this context, the techno-enviro-economic optimization of the hybrid system is conducted by employing a statistical approach to identify optimal design variables and conflictive objective functions. To examine interactions in components of the hybrid system, a series of dynamic simulations are carried out by developing a TRNSYS code coupled with the OpenStudio/EnergyPlus plugin. The obtained results indicate a striking disparity in the monthly RF values as well as the hydrogen production rate, and, therefore, in the level of grid dependency. It is shown that the difference in LCC between optimization scenarios suggested by the design of experiments could reach $15,780, corresponding to 57 % of the mean initial cost. The LCOE value yielded for optimum scenarios varies between 0.389 and 0.537 $/kWh. The scenario with net-zero target demonstrates the lowest LCOE value and the highest carbon mitigation, i.e., 828 kg CO2/yr, with respect to the grid supply case. However, the LCC in this scenario exceeds $57,370, which is the highest among all optimum scenarios. Furthermore, it was revealed that the lowest RF in optimal scenarios is equal to 66.2 % and belongs to the most economical solution.

Integration of BIPV design and energy efficient technologies for low energy building in meeting net zero target

Based on the World Energy Transition Outlook, almost two thirds of the CO2 emissions released in the world are related to energy emissions with 36 Gigatonnes of energy related CO2 released in 2015. To reduce CO2 emissions by 70 % before 2050, energy efficiency parameters and renewable energy systems will have to be incorporated together to achieve a more sustainable future. The synergy between these two systems could potentially decrease the total final energy consumption of the world by 25EJ, which is by 5 % by the year 2030. One of those synergy methods would be the incorporation of energy efficient building designs and technologies with BIPV systems. Energy efficient building design is the process of upgrading or constructing buildings or elements that are able to maximize the consumption of energy supplied to them by reducing energy losses, through various innovative and effective systems and technologies. BIPV systems are PV products and components that are integrated into the buildings structure. In Malaysia, research and applications of BIPV are just emerging and is still in early development. In the final report submitted to the United Nations Development Program, Malaysia aimed to achieve an increase of 330 % in installed BIPV capacity. This paper aims to simulate an energy efficient building through a specific 3D modelling software, Autodesk Revit, that incorporates BIPV design systems. The method used to create this model will be performed in four stages. First, the development of a comprehensive 3D model of a suitable building. Second, analysis of photovoltaic system of the model. Third, an intricate energy analysis of 3D building and BIPV system via Revit and Autodesk Insight. Lastly, evaluation of the energy consumption of the building and CO2 emissions. This research has managed to reduce the Final Energy Use Intensity of the building from 194 kwh/m2/year to 140 kwh/m2/year and the CO2 emissions from 258 tnes CO2e to 186 tnes CO2e a year. This research presents the integration of energy efficient designs and technologies, with BIPV systems toward low energy building target.

State of the Art of Methanol Reforming for Hydrogen Generation

AbstractGreen hydrogen is the energy carrier set in the roadmap to achieve the net zero target. However, hydrogen as the future energy vector, either in compressed gaseous form or liquefied form, demands a complete overhaul of storage and transportation infrastructure at a global scale. Methanol is one of the commercially viable hydrogen carriers that can overcome the infrastructure challenges associated with the storage and transportation of hydrogen. As a sustainable hydrogen carrier, methanol must be reformed to hydrogen prior to the point of usage. This review begins with a detailed discussion on thermocatalytic methanol reforming, catalysts, operating conditions, and the associated challenges for both stationary and mobility applications. An in‐depth analysis of the existing commercial methanol reformers available for on‐board and onsite hydrogen generation is also presented. The current state of the research‐level photo‐ and electroreforming as a possible alternative to thermocatalytic reforming is reviewed and concludes with the future prospects for methanol reforming.

I-ISSUES—Industrial-Interoperable Safe and Secure Urban Energy Systems

Urban planners are involved in designing future urban energy systems as a part of their path toward decarbonization or Net Zero targets before 2050. In this process, new energy and information flows between industrial and urban regions should be considered, as well as safety and security managerial aspects regarding the existing and new infrastructures. This research aims to help engineering professionals and public planners define new collaboration dynamics to make industrial energy systems safer, more secure, and interoperable, surpassing the existing knowledge. Firstly, several recent R&D aspects are analyzed, demonstrating the organizational gap and providing early integration or knowledge reuse opportunities from R&D projects. After that, the authors present a model called Industrial-Interoperable Safe and Secure Urban Energy Systems (i-ISSUES), a multi-disciplinary approach combining classic urban energy planning, information technology use, safety and security management, and systems engineering as the integrated disciplines. The model detects research trends, providing a first set of readings with some improvements.

Impact of reservoir quality on the carbon storage potential of the Bunter Sandstone Formation, Southern North Sea

The Lower Triassic Bunter Sandstone Formation is a major prospective reservoir for carbon capture, utilization and storage in the UK Southern North Sea, and is likely to play a pivotal role in the UK reaching mid-century Net Zero targets. A knowledge gap in reservoir quality exists between previous detailed, but highly focused front-end engineering and development projects, and large-scale regional analysis. This study integrates a regional approach with locally derived reservoir characterization, offering a holistic analysis of the prospectivity of the Bunter Sandstone Formation for subsurface CO 2 storage. Petrophysical analysis of ninety-six wells across the UK Southern North Sea is coupled with seismic interpretation to understand spatial variations of reservoir thickness, facies and quality that underpin theoretical CO 2 storage capacity models. Electrofacies classification is employed to identify and correlate baffles and barriers to permeability over areas currently licensed for geological carbon storage. Our findings point to variable, but broadly favourable reservoir conditions, though identification and correlation of laterally extensive intraformational mudstones and halite-cemented horizons will likely present challenges to CO 2 injection. Within carbon storage license blocks CS001, CS006 and CS007, the Bunter Sandstone Formation has the potential to store 5700 MCO 2 t, the equivalent of seventy-nine years of the UK's 2022 business and industrial CO 2 emissions. A further 434 MCO 2 t is offered by Triassic closures within license CS005, with many neighbouring moderate (100–1000 MCO 2 t) and small (<100 MCO 2 t) closures forming part of newly awarded carbon storage licenses that will likely form part of the UK SNS CCUS portfolio in the future. Supplementary material: well-correlation panels and tabulated velocity and storage capacity modelling parameters are available at https://doi.org/10.6084/m9.figshare.c.7027450

Regulating Heat Networks: An Appraisal of the Energy Act 2023

Abstract Heat networks have the potential to deliver up to 20% of heat to homes in the UK by 2050 and are able to deliver significant reductions in carbon emissions contributing substantially to the UK’s 2050 net zero target. However, for many years the sector has been unregulated which means that some consumers of heat networks have been paying high prices for heating systems which may have been poorly constructed and which they do not understand. This analysis identifies three key problems that have arisen from a lack of regulation in the sector: higher prices for consumers, a lack of transparency and understanding of heat networks, and design and build problems, which have all served as barriers to realising low carbon heating in the UK. The recently enacted Energy Act 2023 will be analysed to determine the extent to which it will resolve these problems.

The effects of alternative fuels, cruising duration and variable generators combination on exhaust emissions, energy efficiency existing ship index (EEXI) and carbon intensity rating (CII)

The aim of this study is to parametrically investigate the effects of varying alternative fuel usage, ship cruising duration and parallel generator combinations on exhaust emissions, EEXI and CII values in the cargo ships. In the study the generators were parallelized to provide 48% load for each combination and parametric studies were performed for the 75% load condition of the main engine. Flue gas products for each fuel were determined by the chemical kinetics method. It has been observed that emissions in the case of single generator use decrease compared to the parallel generator use case. Increasing ship cruising duration caused the EEXI value and CII index to decrease by approximately 2.5%. It has been determined that CII is at C rating for the most widely utilized medium term alternative fuels and A rating for ammonia and hydrogen for long-term net-zero targets. In conclusion, the study provides critical data to inform the current debate on the potential use of alternative fuels in relation to IMO's current strategies to reduce carbon emissions from ships in the long and medium term.

Water use in a sustainable net zero energy system: what are the implications of employing bioenergy with carbon capture and storage?

Net zero emissions of the global energy and land systems are needed to keep the temperature increase to the 1.5 degrees limit by 2100 as per the Paris Agreement (PA). Furthermore, updated Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs) now include a net zero target by 2050 or until 2070. These climate policies require rapid technological development towards renewable energy and low carbon emission technologies like nuclear and carbon capture and storage. However, this transition is water intensive as water is needed in power plants cooling, gasification, carbon capture, hydroelectricity, or emission control. In this study, the focus is done on the first three by using an integrated assessment model TIAM-FR. It is based on techno-economic linear optimization and includes a water allocation module. Under two climate scenarios, the energy mixes of the world energy system are scrutinized. The results show that achieving net zero requires renewable energy mainly but would use bioenergy with carbon capture and storage. For the 2018-2100 period, water consumption increases by 100.5% for a 1.5-degree pathway whereas an NDC pathway increases it by 135%. The comparative analysis asses the choice of mitigation solutions with respect to regional water scarcity. At the end, a discussion on the relevant sustainable development goals (2, 6, 7, 13, 15) is presented.

The forgotten forests: Incorporating temperate peat‐forming wet woodlands as nature‐based solutions into policy and practice

Abstract Peat‐forming wet woodlands (forested wetlands) are naturally occurring carbon‐dense ecosystems that have considerable potential to form an important part of net zero woodland establishment and peatland strategies, as well as provide crucial co‐benefits to restore biodiversity and regulate hydrological systems. Despite their potential, temperate peat‐forming wet woodlands have been widely lost, are critically understudied and are being overlooked in land‐use strategies. Unlike temperate ‘dry’ woodlands, some wet woodlands are peat forming and can store large amounts of carbon below‐ground in peat in addition to the carbon in the tree biomass. The complex structure of these peat‐forming wet woodlands creates high abiotic heterogeneity, resulting in a wide variety of microhabitats to support high levels of biodiversity, and this structural complexity can also increase water storage in the landscape and slow flood flows, providing natural flood protection. Co‐written by experts in academia and UK Government, we highlight critical knowledge gaps in our understanding of peat‐forming wet woodlands that, once addressed, could form the basis for radical changes to their inclusion in net zero and land‐use policies. Policy and practice implications: The significant role that peatland restoration has to play in reaching net zero presents an immediate policy opportunity to consider the full range of ecosystems to achieve net zero targets, while protecting and enhancing socio‐ecological sustainability. In co‐writing this paper, our aim is to stimulate discussion and sharing of knowledge between those involved in research, policy and practice in order to strengthen the evidence base for peat‐forming wet woodland re‐establishment and future management. We call on researchers, policymakers and land managers to take temperate wet woodlands from understudied and overlooked, to integrated ecosystems that hold great promise in the contributions they can make as nature‐based solutions.