Net Radiative Forcing Research Articles

Carbon storage versus albedo change: radiative forcing of forest expansion in temperate mountainous regions of Switzerland

Abstract. In this study, we assess the climate mitigation potential from afforestation in a mountainous snow-rich region (Switzerland) with strongly varying environmental conditions. Using radiative forcing calculations, we quantify both the carbon sequestration potential and the effect of albedo change at high resolution. We calculate the albedo radiative forcing based on remotely sensed data sets of albedo, global radiation and snow cover. Carbon sequestration is estimated from changes in carbon stocks based on national inventories. We first estimate the spatial pattern of radiative forcing (RF) across Switzerland assuming homogeneous transitions from open land to forest. This highlights where forest expansion still exhibits climatic benefits when including the radiative forcing of albedo change. Second, given that forest expansion is currently the dominant land-use change process in the Swiss Alps, we calculate the radiative forcing that occurred between 1985 and 1997. Our results show that the net RF of forest expansion ranges from −24 W m−2 at low elevations of the northern Prealps to 2 W m−2 at high elevations of the Central Alps. The albedo RF increases with increasing altitude, which offsets the CO2 RF at high elevations with long snow-covered periods, high global radiation and low carbon sequestration. Albedo RF is particularly relevant during transitions from open land to open forest but not in later stages of forest development. Between 1985 and 1997, when overall forest expansion in Switzerland was approximately 4%, the albedo RF offset the CO2 RF by an average of 40%. We conclude that the albedo RF should be considered at an appropriately high resolution when estimating the climatic effect of forestation in temperate mountainous regions.

Impact of aerosol radiative effects on 2000–2010 surface temperatures

Aerosol radiative forcing from direct and indirect effects of aerosols is examined over the recent past (last 10–15 years) using updated sulfate aerosol emissions in two Earth System Models with very different surface temperature responses to aerosol forcing. The hypothesis is that aerosol forcing and in particular, the impact of indirect effects of aerosols on clouds (Aerosol–Cloud Interactions, or ACI), explains the recent ‘hiatus’ in global mean surface temperature increases. Sulfate aerosol emissions increase globally from 2000 to 2005, and then decrease slightly to 2010. Thus the change in anthropogenic sulfate induced net global radiative forcing is small over the period. Regionally, there are statistically significant forcings that are similar in both models, and consistent with changes in simulated emissions and aerosol optical depth. Coupled model simulations are performed to look at impacts of the forcing on recent surface temperatures. Temperature response patterns in the models are similar, and reflect the regional radiative forcing. Pattern correlations indicate significant correlations between observed decadal surface temperature changes and simulated surface temperature changes from recent sulfate aerosol forcing in an equilibrium framework. Sulfate ACI might be a contributor to the spatial patterns of recent temperature forcing, but not to the global mean ‘hiatus’ itself.

Estimation of Aerosol Characteristics and Radiative Forcing during Dust Events over Dehradun

Dust storm, a natural hazard, has a direct impact on daily life for a short period. Dust storms are periodic events over India, especially in northern regions. This study has been carried out to investigate the dust impacts on the aerosol characteristics over Dehradun (DDN) during pre-monsoon (March–June), 2012 using ground measurements, satellite observations and model simulations. The measurements illustrate the distinct monthly impact on the aerosol properties with maximum dust loading during May (aerosol optical depth at 500 nm (AOD500) = 0.72 ± 0.18) over DDN, which is confirmed with the Terra-MODIS (AOD550 = 0.70 ± 0.19) measurements. The major dust loading was recorded in aerosol measurements during May at the station, which permitting to examine the influence of dust transports on the aerosol characteristics. Spectral variation of AOD and Angstrom exponent (α) values displayed day to day variation of aerosol during dust episodes. Analysis of aerosol types and seven-day back-trajectories reveal the transportation of desert dust during May over DDN. The Optical Properties of Aerosols and Clouds (OPAC) model was used to compute the aerosol optical properties (e.g., Single scattering albedo (SSA) and asymmetry parameter (g)) and size distribution. The high values of SSA and g are indicating the dust loading in the atmosphere during May. Aerosol volume concentration at the coarse mode (geometric mean radii (RV) = 2.89 ± 0.027 µm) is found to be increased in the May, whereas decrement has been observed in the finer mode (RV = 0.16 ± 0.006 µm). The aerosol direct radiative forcing (ARF) was computed using Santa Barbara Discrete Ordinate Atmospheric Radiative Transfer (SBDART) model in the shortwave (SW) region (0.25–4.00 µm). The mean top of the atmosphere (TOA) and surface forcing come out to be –14.49 W m–2 and –53.29 W m–2 respectively in May. The mean net atmospheric radiative forcing (38.79 W m–2 maximum during May) corresponds to heating rate of ~1.06° K d–1 in the atmosphere.

Variation of radiative forcings and global warming potentials from regional aviation NOx emissions

The response to hemispherical and regional aircraft NOx emissions is explored by using two climate metrics: radiative forcing (RF) and Global Warming Potential (GWP). The global chemistry transport model, MOZART-3 CTM, is applied in this study for a series of incremental aircraft NOx emission integrations to different regions. It was found that the sensitivity of chemical responses per unit emission rate from regional aircraft NOx emissions varies with size of aircraft NOx emission rate and that climate metric values decrease with increasing aircraft NOx emission rates, except for Southeast Asia. Previous work has recognized that aircraft NOx GWPs may vary regionally. However, the way in which these regional GWPs are calculated are critical. Previous studies have added a fixed amount of NOx to different regions. This approach can heavily bias the results of a regional GWP because of the well-established sensitivity of O3 production to background NOx whereby the Ozone Production Efficiency (OPE) is greater at small background NOx. Thus, even a small addition of NOx in a clean-air area can produce a large O3 response. Using this ‘fixed addition’ method of 0.035 Tg(N) yr−1, results in the greatest effect observed for North Atlantic and Brazil, ∼10.0 mW m−2/Tg(N) yr−1. An alternative ‘proportional approach’ is also taken that preserves the subtle balance of local NOx–O3–CH4 systems with the existing emission patterns of aircraft and background NOx, whereby a proportional amount of aircraft NOx, 5% (N) yr−1, is added to each region in order to determine the response. This results in the greatest effect observed for North Pacific that with its net NOx RF of 23.7 mW m−2/Tg(N) yr−1 is in contrast with the ‘fixed addition’ method. For determining regional NOx GWPs, it is argued that the ‘proportional’ approach gives more representative results. However, a constraint of both approaches is that the regional GWP determined is dependent on the relative global emission pattern, so if that changes in the future, the regional NOx GWP will change.

Climate impacts of short-lived climate forcers versus CO2 from biodiesel: a case of the EU on-road sector.

Biofuels are proposed to play an important role in several mitigation strategies to meet future CO2 emission targets for the transport sector but remain controversial due to significant uncertainties in net impacts on environment, society, and climate. A switch to biofuels can also affect short-lived climate forcers (SLCFs), which provide significant contributions to the net climate impact of transportation. We quantify the radiative forcing (RF) and global-mean temperature response over time to EU on-road fossil diesel SLCFs and the impact of 20% (B20) and 100% (B100) replacement of fossil diesel by biodiesel. SLCFs are compared to impacts of on-road CO2 using different approaches from existing literature to account for biodiesel CO2. Given the best estimates for changes in emissions when replacing fossil diesel with biodiesel, the net positive RF from EU on-road fossil diesel SLCFs of 3.4 mW/m(2) is reduced by 15% and 80% in B20 and B100, respectively. Over time the warming of SLCFs is likely small compared to biodiesel CO2 impacts. However, SLCFs may be relatively more important for the total warming than in the fossil fuel case if biodiesel from feedstock with very short rotation periods and low land-use-change impacts replaces a high fraction of fossil diesel.

Satellite evidence for significant biophysical consequences of the “Grain for Green” Program on the Loess Plateau in China

AbstractAfforestation has been implemented worldwide as regional and national policies to address environmental problems and to improve ecosystem services. China's central government launched the “Grain for Green” Program (GGP) in 1999 to increase forest cover and to control soil erosion by converting agricultural lands on steep slopes to forests and grasslands. Here a variety of satellite data products from the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer were used to assess the biophysical consequences of the GGP for the Loess Plateau, the pilot region of the program. The average tree cover of the plateau substantially increased because of the GGP, with a relative increase of 41.0%. The GGP led to significant increases in enhanced vegetation index (EVI), leaf area index, and the fraction of photosynthetically active radiation absorbed by canopies. The increase in forest productivity as approximated by EVI was not driven by elevated air temperature, changing precipitation, or rising atmospheric carbon dioxide concentrations. Moreover, the afforestation significantly reduced surface albedo, leading to a positive radiative forcing and a warming effect on the climate. The GGP also led to a significant decline in daytime land surface temperature and exerted a cooling effect on the climate. The GGP therefore has significant biophysical consequences by altering carbon cycling, hydrologic processes, and surface energy exchange and has significant feedbacks to the regional climate. The net radiative forcing on the climate depends on the offsetting of the negative forcing from carbon sequestration and higher evapotranspiration and the positive forcing from lower albedo.

Global and regional climate impacts of black carbon and co-emitted species from the on-road diesel sector

Diesel vehicles are a significant source of black carbon (BC) and ozone precursors, which are important contributors to climate warming, degrade air quality and harm human health. Reducing diesel emissions could mitigate near-term climate change with significant co-benefits. This study quantifies the global and regional climate impacts of BC and co-emitted short-lived climate forcers (SLCFs) from present-day on-road diesel vehicles, as well as future impacts following a current legislation emission scenario. Atmospheric concentrations are calculated by the chemical transport model OsloCTM2. The following radiative forcing (RF) and equilibrium surface temperature responses are estimated. For year 2010 on-road diesel emissions we estimate a global-mean direct RF from BC of 44 m W/m2 and an equilibrium surface temperature response of 59 mK, including the impact of BC deposition on snow. Accounting for cooling and warming impacts of co-emitted SLCFs results in a net global-mean RF and warming of 28 mW/m2 and 48 mK, respectively. Using the concept of Regional Temperature change Potential (RTP), we find significant geographical differences in the responses to regional emissions. Accounting for the vertical sensitivities of the forcing/response relation amplifies these differences. In terms of individual source regions, emissions in Europe give the largest regional contribution to equilibrium warming caused by year 2010 on-road diesel BC, while Russia is most important for Arctic warming per unit emission. The largest contribution to warming caused by the year 2050 on-road diesel sector is from emissions in South Asia, followed by East Asia and the Middle East. Hence, in regions where current legislation is not sufficient to outweigh the expected growth in activity, accelerated policy implementation is important for further future mitigation.

Cloud radiative forcing intercomparison between fully coupled CMIP5 models and CERES satellite data

Abstract. In this paper, radiative fluxes for 10 years from 11 models participating in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) and from CERES satellite observations have been analyzed and compared. Under present-day conditions, the majority of the investigated CMIP5 models show a tendency towards a too-negative global mean net cloud radiative forcing (NetCRF) as compared to CERES. A separate inspection of the long-wave and shortwave contribution (LWCRF and SWCRF) as well as cloud cover points to different shortcomings in different models. Models with a similar NetCRF still differ in their SWCRF and LWCRF and/or cloud cover. Zonal means mostly show excessive SWCRF (too much cooling) in the tropics between 20° S and 20° N and in the midlatitudes between 40 to 60° S. Most of the models show a too-small/too-weak LWCRF (too little warming) in the subtropics (20 to 40° S and N). Difference maps between CERES and the models identify the tropical Pacific Ocean as an area of major discrepancies in both SWCRF and LWCRF. The summer hemisphere is found to pose a bigger challenge for the SWCRF than the winter hemisphere. The results suggest error compensation to occur between LWCRF and SWCRF, but also when taking zonal and/or annual means. Uncertainties in the cloud radiative forcing are thus still present in current models used in CMIP5.

The climate impact of ship NO<sub>x</sub> emissions: an improved estimate accounting for plume chemistry

Abstract. Nitrogen oxide (NOx) emissions from maritime shipping produce ozone (O3) and hydroxyl radicals (OH), which in turn destroy methane (CH4). The balance between this warming (due to O3) and cooling (due to CH4) determines the net effect of ship NOx on climate. Previous estimates of the chemical impact and radiative forcing (RF) of ship NOx have generally assumed that plumes of ship exhaust are instantly diluted into model grid cells spanning hundreds of kilometers, even though this is known to produce biased results. Here we improve the parametric representation of exhaust-gas chemistry developed in the GEOS-Chem chemical transport model (CTM) to provide the first estimate of RF from shipping that accounts for sub-grid-scale ship plume chemistry. The CTM now calculates O3 production and CH4 loss both within and outside the exhaust plumes and also accounts for the effect of wind speed. With the improved modeling of plumes, ship NOx perturbations are smaller than suggested by the ensemble of past global modeling studies, but if we assume instant dilution of ship NOx on the grid scale, the CTM reproduces previous model results. Our best estimates of the RF components from increasing ship NOx emissions by 1 Tg(N) yr−1 are smaller than that given in the past literature: + 3.4 ± 0.85 mW m−2 (1σ confidence interval) from the short-lived ozone increase, −5.7 ± 1.3 mW m−2 from the CH4 decrease, and −1.7 ± 0.7 mW m−2 from the long-lived O3 decrease that accompanies the CH4 change. The resulting net RF is −4.0 ± 2.0 mW m−2 for emissions of 1 Tg(N) yr−1. Due to non-linearity in O3 production as a function of background NOx, RF from large changes in ship NOx emissions, such as the increase since preindustrial times, is about 20% larger than this RF value for small marginal emission changes. Using sensitivity tests in one CTM, we quantify sources of uncertainty in the RF components and causes of the ±30% spread in past model results; the main source of uncertainty is the composition of the background atmosphere in the CTM, which is driven by model formulation (±10 to 20%) and the plausible range of anthropogenic emissions (±10%).

Investigation of negative cloud radiative forcing over the Indian subcontinent and adjacent oceans during the summer monsoon season

Abstract. Radiative properties of clouds over the Indian subcontinent and nearby oceanic regions (0–25° N, 60–100° E) during the Asian summer monsoon season (June–September) are investigated using the Clouds and Earth's Radiant Energy System (CERES) top-of-the-atmosphere (TOA) flux data. Using multiyear satellite data, the net cloud radiative forcing (NETCRF) at the TOA over the Indian region during the Asian monsoon season is examined. The seasonal mean NETCRF is found to be negative (with its magnitude exceeding ~30 Wm−2) over (1) the northern Bay of Bengal (close to the Myanmar–Thailand coast), (2) the Western Ghats and (3) the coastal regions of Myanmar. Such strong negative NETCRF values observed over the Indian monsoon region contradict the assumption that near cancellation between LWCRF and SWCRF is a generic property of all tropical convective regions. The seasonal mean cloud amount (high and upper middle) and corresponding cloud optical depth observed over the three regions show relatively large values compared to the rest of the Indian monsoon region. Using satellite-derived cloud data, a statistical cloud vertical model delineating the cloud cover and single-scattering albedo was developed for the three negative NETCRF regions. The shortwave (SW), longwave (LW) and net cloud radiative forcing over the three negative NETCRF regions are calculated using the rapid radiative transfer model (RRTM) with the cloud vertical model as input. The NETCRF estimated from CERES observations show good comparison with that computed using RRTM (within the uncertainty limit of CERES observations). Sensitivity tests are conducted using RRTM to identify the parameters that control the negative NETCRF observed over these regions during the summer monsoon season. Increase in atmospheric water vapor content during the summer monsoon season is found to influence the negative NETCRF values observed over the region.

Uncertainties in future climate predictions due to convection parameterisations

Abstract. In the last decades several convection parameterisations have been developed to consider the impact of small-scale unresolved processes in Earth System Models associated with convective clouds. Global model simulations, which have been performed under current climate conditions with different convection schemes, significantly differ among each other in the simulated transport of trace gases and precipitation patterns due to the parameterisation assumptions and formulations, e.g. the computation of convective rainfall rates, calculation of entrainment and detrainment rates etc. Here we address sensitivity studies comparing four different convection schemes under alternative climate conditions (with doubling of the CO2 concentrations) to identify uncertainties related to convective processes. The increase in surface temperature reveals regional differences up to 4 K dependent on the chosen convection parameterisation. These differences are statistically significant almost everywhere in the troposphere of the intertropical convergence zone. The increase in upper tropospheric temperature affects the amount of water vapour transported to the lower stratosphere, leading to enhanced water vapour contents between 40% and 60% at the cold point temperature in the Tropics. Furthermore, the change in transporting short-lived pollutants within the atmosphere is highly ambiguous for the lower and upper troposphere. These results reflect that different approaches to compute mass fluxes, detrainment levels or trigger functions determine the transport of short-lived trace gases from the planetary boundary layer to lower, middle or upper tropospheric levels. Finally, cloud radiative effects have been analysed, uncovering a shift in different cloud types in the Tropics, especially for cirrus and deep convective clouds. These cloud types induce a change in net cloud radiative forcing varying from 0.5 W m−2 to 2.0 W m−2.

The role of mineral aerosols in shaping the regional climate of West Africa

AbstractThis article examines the role of mineral aerosols in the regional climate of West Africa. Analysis is completed by comparing two 30 year simulations using a regional climate model (RegCM3‐IBIS). The two simulations are identical in structure except one includes the representation of mineral aerosols via a fully coupled radiatively interactive dust emissions and aerosol tracer model; the other simulation does not. To discern the impact of dust on West Africa's climate, comparisons are made between the two simulations' surface climatology as well as atmospheric dynamics. It is found that RegCM3‐IBIS and its dust model perform well in simulating the temporal and spatial distributions of mineral aerosols over the Sahel and Sahara. Consistent with previous studies over the region, RegCM3‐IBIS simulates high‐dust loading over the region (aerosol optical depth of 0.5–1.1), which results in significant incident shortwave radiation attenuation (25–50 W/m2) and temperature cooling (0.5°C–1.25°C). Depending on the underlying surface brightness, the top of atmosphere net radiative forcing may be positive (bright desert surfaces) or negative (dark, vegetated surface) with important implications on surface temperature cooling. Here it is proposed that the effects of dust on West African rainfall are distinctly different across the ocean‐land border and the desert border region of the Sahel/Sahara. Nevertheless, in both regions, the change in rainfall is less than 10% of the total annual values. Therefore, this work concludes that the current, observed, dust loading over West Africa does not significantly affect rainfall via changes in the radiation budget. However, it is important to note that this work does not include mineral aerosol effects on sea surface temperatures, which may be significant in influencing the results.

Temperature and peat type control CO2 and CH4 production in Alaskan permafrost peats

Controls on the fate of ~277 Pg of soil organic carbon (C) stored in permafrost peatland soils remain poorly understood despite the potential for a significant positive feedback to climate change. Our objective was to quantify the temperature, moisture, organic matter, and microbial controls on soil organic carbon (SOC) losses following permafrost thaw in peat soils across Alaska. We compared the carbon dioxide (CO2 ) and methane (CH4 ) emissions from peat samples collected at active layer and permafrost depths when incubated aerobically and anaerobically at -5, -0.5, +4, and +20 °C. Temperature had a strong, positive effect on C emissions; global warming potential (GWP) was >3× larger at 20 °C than at 4 °C. Anaerobic conditions significantly reduced CO2 emissions and GWP by 47% at 20 °C but did not have a significant effect at -0.5 °C. Net anaerobic CH4 production over 30 days was 7.1 ± 2.8 μg CH4 -C gC(-1) at 20 °C. Cumulative CO2 emissions were related to organic matter chemistry and best predicted by the relative abundance of polysaccharides and proteins (R(2) = 0.81) in SOC. Carbon emissions (CO2 -C + CH4 -C) from the active layer depth peat ranged from 77% larger to not significantly different than permafrost depths and varied depending on the peat type and peat decomposition stage rather than thermal state. Potential SOC losses with warming depend not only on the magnitude of temperature increase and hydrology but also organic matter quality, permafrost history, and vegetation dynamics, which will ultimately determine net radiative forcing due to permafrost thaw.

Aerosol's optical and physical characteristics and direct radiative forcing during a shamal dust storm, a case study

Abstract. Dust aerosols are analyzed for their optical and physical properties during an episode of a dust storm that blew over Kuwait on 26 March 2003 when the military Operation Iraqi Freedom was in full swing. The intensity of the dust storm was such that it left a thick suspension of dust throughout the following day, 27 March. The synoptic sequence leading to the dust storm and the associated wind fields are discussed. Ground-based measurements of aerosol optical thickness reached 3.617 and 4.17 on 26 and 27 March respectively while the Ångstrom coefficient, α870/440, dropped to −0.0234 and −0.0318. Particulate matter concentration of 10 μm diameter or less, PM10, peaked at 4800 μg m−3 during dust storm hours of 26 March. Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) retrieved aerosol optical depth (AOD) by Deep Blue algorithm and Total Ozone Mapping Spectrometer (TOMS) aerosol index (AI) exhibited high values. Latitude–longitude maps of AOD and AI were used to deduce source regions of dust transport over Kuwait. The vertical profile of the dust layer was simulated using the SKIRON atmospheric model. Instantaneous net direct radiative forcing is calculated at top of atmosphere (TOA) and surface level. The thick dust layer of 26 March resulted in cooling the TOA by −60 Wm−2 and surface level by −175 Wm−2 for a surface albedo of 0.35. Slightly higher values were obtained for 27 March due to the increase in aerosol optical thickness. Radiative heating/cooling rates in the shortwave and longwave bands were also examined. Shortwave heating rate reached a maximum value of 2 K day−1 between 3 and 5 km, dropped to 1.5 K day−1 at 6 km and diminished at 8 km. Longwave radiation initially heated the lower atmosphere by a maximum value of 0.2 K day−1 at surface level, declined sharply at increasing altitude and diminished at 4 km. Above 4 km longwave radiation started to cool the atmosphere slightly reaching a maximum rate of −0.1 K day−1 at 6 km.

Nitric and nitrous oxide fluxes following bovine urine deposition to summer-grazed pasture

Nitric oxide (NO) and nitrogen dioxide (NO2) emissions, referred to collectively as NOx, cause decreases in methane and increases in tropospheric ozone. The net negative radiative forcing that ensues is dependent on NOx flux magnitude, location and season. This study aimed to determine if urine–N rate affected NOx or nitrous oxide (N2O) fluxes following dairy cattle urine application to a temperate pasture soil under summer conditions (mean monthly rainfall 45 mm; mean air temperatures 17 °C, range 11–22 °C). An in situ experiment consisting of three treatments (control, bovine urine at 543 and 1086 kg N/ha) was replicated thrice in a randomised complete block design. Soil inorganic–N, pH and gas fluxes were measured over a 72 day summer period. Fluxes of NO–N in the control, 543 and 1086 kg N/ha treatments averaged 73, 328 and 341 µg NO–N/m2/h. Cumulative NO–N fluxes equalled 0.15% (± 0.03) and 0.20% (± 0.06) of the urine–N applied (± SD) in the 543 and 1086 kg N/ha treatments, respectively, with no effect of urine–N rate. Cumulative N2O–N fluxes did not differ with urine–N rate equalling 0.14% (± 0.03) and 0.16% (±0.10) of the urine–N applied in the 543 and 1086 kg N/ha treatments, respectively. Under summer conditions, varying urine–N rate from 543–1086 kg N/ha had no significant effect on cumulative NO–N or N2O–N when measured over 72 days.

Radiative forcing caused by rocket engine emissions

AbstractSpace transportation plays an important and growing role in Earth's economic system. Rockets uniquely emit gases and particles directly into the middle and upper atmosphere where exhaust from hundreds of launches accumulates, changing atmospheric radiation patterns. The instantaneous radiative forcing (RF) caused by major rocket engine emissions CO2, H2O, black carbon (BC), and Al2O3 (alumina) is estimated. Rocket CO2 and H2O emissions do not produce significant RF. BC and alumina emissions, under some scenarios, have the potential to produce significant RF. Absorption of solar flux by BC is likely the main RF source from rocket launches. In a new finding, alumina particles, previously thought to cool the Earth by scattering solar flux back to space, absorb outgoing terrestrial longwave radiation, resulting in net positive RF. With the caveat that BC and alumina microphysics are poorly constrained, we find that the present‐day RF from rocket launches equals 16 ± 8 mW m−2. The relative contributions from BC, alumina, and H2O are 70%, 28%, and 2%. respectively. The pace of rocket launches is predicted to grow and space transport RF could become comparable to global aviation RF in coming decades. Improved understanding of rocket emission RF requires more sophisticated modeling and improved data describing particle microphysics.

A lower and more constrained estimate of climate sensitivity using updated observations and detailed radiative forcing time series

Abstract. Equilibrium climate sensitivity (ECS) is constrained based on observed near-surface temperature change, changes in ocean heat content (OHC) and detailed radiative forcing (RF) time series from pre-industrial times to 2010 for all main anthropogenic and natural forcing mechanism. The RF time series are linked to the observations of OHC and temperature change through an energy balance model (EBM) and a stochastic model, using a Bayesian approach to estimate the ECS and other unknown parameters from the data. For the net anthropogenic RF the posterior mean in 2010 is 2.0 Wm−2, with a 90% credible interval (C.I.) of 1.3 to 2.8 Wm−2, excluding present-day total aerosol effects (direct + indirect) stronger than −1.7 Wm−2. The posterior mean of the ECS is 1.8 °C, with 90% C.I. ranging from 0.9 to 3.2 °C, which is tighter than most previously published estimates. We find that using three OHC data sets simultaneously and data for global mean temperature and OHC up to 2010 substantially narrows the range in ECS compared to using less updated data and only one OHC data set. Using only one OHC set and data up to 2000 can produce comparable results as previously published estimates using observations in the 20th century, including the heavy tail in the probability function. The analyses show a significant contribution of internal variability on a multi-decadal scale to the global mean temperature change. If we do not explicitly account for long-term internal variability, the 90% C.I. is 40% narrower than in the main analysis and the mean ECS becomes slightly lower, which demonstrates that the uncertainty in ECS may be severely underestimated if the method is too simple. In addition to the uncertainties represented through the estimated probability density functions, there may be uncertainties due to limitations in the treatment of the temporal development in RF and structural uncertainties in the EBM.

Evaluation of aviation NOx-induced radiative forcings for 2005 and 2050

Aviation NOx emissions lead to the production of ozone (O3) and an OH increase in the troposphere and lower stratosphere. This OH increase results in a reduction of methane (CH4) which causes a longer-term reduction in O3 concentrations and lower stratospheric water vapor (SWV). Here we report new evaluations of a more comprehensive suite of aviation NOx-induced steady-state radiative forcing (RF) for 2006 aviation NOx emissions and for two different projections of 2050 NOx emissions and compare them with previously published analyses of aviation NOx-induced steady-state RFs. To do so, we evaluate the aviation NOx-induced steady-state RFs using the three-dimensional (3-D) global climate-chemistry Community Atmosphere Model (CAM), CAM4Chem. Moreover, we determine time dependent (transient) RFs for 2005 and the two 2050 emission scenarios by utilizing a parameterization based on specific RFs (steady-state RFs per unit of NOx emission) calculated in the 3-D model simulations, time-dependent NOx emissions data, and considering the lifetime of the perturbed species. For aviation NOx-induced effects we find that the net transient RFs differ from the linearly scaled steady-state RFs (specific steady-state RFs multiplied by NOx emissions) by +10%–36% for the different emission scenarios used in this study. These results indicate the importance of not using the transient and steady-state RF interchangeably, especially when comparing the aviation contribution in RF changes to contributions from other transportation sectors. Also, these results indicate that careful consideration is necessary when choosing whether to use the steady-state or transient RF when evaluating aviation NOx-induced RFs.

Asian pollution climatically modulates mid-latitude cyclones following hierarchical modelling and observational analysis

Increasing levels of anthropogenic aerosols in Asia have raised considerable concern regarding its potential impact on the global atmosphere, but the magnitude of the associated climate forcing remains to be quantified. Here, using a novel hierarchical modelling approach and observational analysis, we demonstrate modulated mid-latitude cyclones by Asian pollution over the past three decades. Regional and seasonal simulations using a cloud-resolving model show that Asian pollution invigorates winter cyclones over the northwest Pacific, increasing precipitation by 7% and net cloud radiative forcing by 1.0 W m(-2) at the top of the atmosphere and by 1.7 W m(-2) at the Earth's surface. A global climate model incorporating the diabatic heating anomalies from Asian pollution produces a 9% enhanced transient eddy meridional heat flux and reconciles a decadal variation of mid-latitude cyclones derived from the Reanalysis data. Our results unambiguously reveal a large impact of the Asian pollutant outflows on the global general circulation and climate.

Air quality and radiative forcing impacts of anthropogenic volatile organic compound emissions from ten world regions

Abstract. Non-methane volatile organic compounds (NMVOCs) influence air quality and global climate change through their effects on secondary air pollutants and climate forcers. Here we simulate the air quality and radiative forcing (RF) impacts of changes in ozone, methane, and sulfate from halving anthropogenic NMVOC emissions globally and from 10 regions individually, using a global chemical transport model and a standalone radiative transfer model. Halving global NMVOC emissions decreases global annual average tropospheric methane and ozone by 36.6 ppbv and 3.3 Tg, respectively, and surface ozone by 0.67 ppbv. All regional reductions slow the production of peroxyacetyl nitrate (PAN), resulting in regional to intercontinental PAN decreases and regional NOx increases. These NOx increases drive tropospheric ozone increases nearby or downwind of source regions in the Southern Hemisphere (South America, Southeast Asia, Africa, and Australia). Some regions' NMVOC emissions contribute importantly to air pollution in other regions, such as East Asia, the Middle East, and Europe, whose impact on US surface ozone is 43%, 34%, and 34% of North America's impact. Global and regional NMVOC reductions produce widespread negative net RFs (cooling) across both hemispheres from tropospheric ozone and methane decreases, and regional warming and cooling from changes in tropospheric ozone and sulfate (via several oxidation pathways). The 100 yr and 20 yr global warming potentials (GWP100, GWP20) are 2.36 and 5.83 for the global reduction, and 0.079 to 6.05 and −1.13 to 18.9 among the 10 regions. The NMVOC RF and GWP estimates are generally lower than previously modeled estimates, due to the greater NMVOC/NOx emissions ratios simulated, which result in less sensitivity to NMVOC emissions changes and smaller global O3 burden responses, in addition to differences in the representation of NMVOCs and oxidation chemistry among models. Accounting for a fuller set of RF contributions may change the relative magnitude of each region's impacts. The large variability in the RF and GWP of NMVOCs among regions suggest that regionally specific metrics may be necessary to include NMVOCs in multi-gas climate trading schemes.