Net Foreign Assets Research Articles

TVECM TO ANALYZE THE RELATIONSHIP BETWEEN NET FOREIGN ASSETS AND CURRENCY CIRCULATION

In the analytical balance sheet of the base money monetary authority, Bank Indonesia explained that net foreign assets (NFA) affected the circulation of base money, including currency. This gives an assumption regarding the indication of a causal relationship between currency circulation and NFA. In addition to the causality test, the primary purpose of this study is to identify long-term equilibrium relationships between NFA and Currency Circulation. The cointegration test obtained r = 1, indicating cointegration (long-term equilibrium). Time series data plots of these two variables tend to have a trend and are not stationary. The Vector Error Correction Model (VECM) is applied as an analytical method used to correct long-term relationships between variables that are not stationary. However, in the concept of VECM deviation and short-term dynamics, the association is assumed to be linear. At the same time, in applying economics, the relationship between economic variables is not necessarily linear. The significance test for the presence of a threshold using a fixed regressor bootstrap shows a threshold effect or nonlinear VECM, so it is necessary to use an analytical method that can combine nonlinearity and cointegration through the Threshold Vector Error Correction Model (TVECM). In this study, modeling of TVECM 2 regimes and three regimes were carried out. TVECM 3 regimes obtain the best model with two threshold values ​​of -310850 and -260156.

Relationships between total reserve and financial indicators of Bangladesh: Application of generalized additive model.

The reserve of a country is a reflection of the strength of fulfilling its financial liabilities. However, during the past several years, a regular variation of the total reserve has been observed on a global scale. The reserve of Bangladesh is also influenced by several economic and financial indicators such as total debt, net foreign assets, net domestic credit, inflation GDP deflator, net exports (% of GDP), and imports of goods and services (% of GDP), as well as foreign direct investment, GNI growth, official exchange rate, personal remittances, and so on. Therefore, the authors aimed to identify the nature of the relationship and influence of economic indicators on the total reserve of Bangladesh using a suitable statistical model. To meet the objective of this study, the secondary data set was extracted from the World Bank's website which is openly accessible over the period 1976 to 2020. Moreover, the model used the appropriate splines to describe the non-linearity. The performance of the model was evaluated by the Akaike information criterion (AIC), Bayesian information criterion (BIC), and adjusted R-square. The total reserve of Bangladesh gradually increased since 2001, and it reached its peak in 2020 which was 43172 billion US dollars. The data were first utilized to build a multiple linear regression model as a base model, but it was later found that the model has severe multicollinearity problems, with a maximum value of VIF for GNI of 499.63. Findings revealed that total debt, inflation, import, and export are showing a non-linear relationship with the total reserve in Bangladesh. Therefore, the authors applied the Generalized Additive Model (GAM) model to take advantage of the nonlinear relationship between the reserve and the selected covariates. The overall response, which is linearly tied to the net foreign asset in the GAM model, will change by 14.43 USD for every unit change in the net foreign asset. It is observed that the GAM model performs better than the multiple linear regression. A non-linear relationship is observed between the total reserve and different economic indicators of Bangladesh. The authors believed that this study will be beneficial to the government, monetary authorities also to the people of the country to better understand the economy.

Determinants of bank lending in Algerian commercial banks

This research document aims to study the determinants of bank credit in Algerian commercial banks,using the autoregressive distributed lag(ARDL) and the annual data covering the period (1990-2021).Theresults of the econometric analysis revealed a positive and significant impact of the size of deposits, bank assets, growth rate of net foreign assets and growth rate of population density on economy loans for the long-term. In contrast, there was a positive and significant short-term effect only for the volume of deposits and the growth rate of net foreign assets on loans to the economy, With the absence of the effect of other variables.

Real effective exchange rate misalignment and currency crisis in Iran

This study aimed to examine real effective exchange rate (REER) misalignment in Iran and its relation to the currency crisis. The behavioral equilibrium exchange rate was employed to calculate the equilibrium exchange rate (EER), and misalignment was obtained using the exchange rate deviation from the equilibrium value. Using the autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) method and data from 1986 to 2019, the long-run relationship between macroeconomic fundamentals and REER was estimated. The results show that trade openness, rate of productivity growth in tradable good production, net foreign assets of the central bank, oil exports, and terms of trade significantly affected the EER. Estimation of misalignment and its relationship with the currency crisis show that in the years before the crisis, there was generally a significant overvaluation in several consecutive years; hence, exchange rate misalignment serves as a leading index to predict the probability of a currency crisis.

Does Monetary Policy Solely Correct Disequilibrium in the Balance of Payment? Evidence From the Developing World

Abstract Monetary policy and balance of payments (BoP) are the key parameters in any country’s economy performance. This study is an attempt to re-explore the impact of domestic credit provided by the financial sector, real interest rate, real GDP growth, inflation rate, and exchange rate on the balance of payments by net foreign assets (NFA) in 17 developing countries over 1982–2019. The most appropriate empirical strategy has been implemented to obtain robust empirical results. The results indicate that domestic credit, interest rate, inflation and exchange rate have a significantly negative, while real GDP growth has a significantly positive impact on NFA. The results of Granger causality test reveals a bidirectional causality between domestic credit and NFA, between exchange rate and NFA. Furthermore, in the case of individual country analysis, overall empirical estimates of three estimators are acceptable for 17 individual countries although some dissimilarities are found between the countries in the magnitude of estimated coefficients of variables and level of significance. Empirical findings suggest that to correct the disequilibrium in BoP, central banks (monetary authorities) need to give equal consideration to other policy measures along with the monetary instruments to accomplish stability in a country’s BoP account.

Long‐term determinants of valuation effects

AbstractThe progression of financial globalization increases the importance of valuation changes of foreign assets and liabilities, similar to that of current account in explaining the recent net foreign asset position of countries around the world. This study analyzes the long‐term determinants of valuation effects by using panel regression with 10‐year data span of 188 countries. The main findings are as follows. First, the size of foreign assets and relative portion of risky assets are positively associated with valuation effects, which suggests that general principles for long‐term individual investors also hold for an entire country. Second, current account is negatively associated with valuation effects, which suggests that these two mechanisms stabilize each other in overall international adjustment process. Third, exchange rate changes are often positively associated with valuation effects, which at times depend on foreign asset and liability positions. Fourth, per capita GDP are negatively associated with valuation effects. Fifth, current account is mainly associated with valuation effects due to asset price changes, but exchange rate changes and foreign asset and liability positions are mainly associated with valuation effects due to exchange rate changes. The relative proportion of risky assets is associated with both types of valuation effects.

Oil Price Shocks to Foreign Assets and Liabilities in Saudi Arabia under Pegged Exchange Rate

The Saudi economy ought to maintain a significant amount of foreign exchange reserves due to the pegged exchange rate regime. As a hydrocarbon economy, we measure the dynamic response of external assets and liabilities of banks to the international oil price in Saudi Arabia. In the presence of extreme observations, we apply sophisticated frameworks, including cross-quantilograms, quantile-on-quantile and TVP-VAR approaches, to analyze weekly time-series data from 1993 to 2021. Our results from the cross-quantilogram and quantile-on-quantile frameworks demonstrate that foreign assets and liabilities responded asymmetrically to the volatilities of international oil prices under the bullish and bearish states of the market over different memories. The TVP-VAR results indicate that, during the COVID-19 pandemic, the Saudi economy encountered negative net foreign assets, which occurred mainly as a significant plague of international oil prices. Our findings are robust under different estimators.

Financial development and real exchange rate misalignments effects on environmental pollution

The research examined the influence of the fundamental exchange rate misalignment and Least Developed Countries (LDCs) in Asia and Africa’s financial development on CO2 emissions in Asian countries using panel data from 1970 to 2021. The methodology consists of ARDL bound testing and PMG/ARDL estimators with dynamic OLS estimators. The results reveal that the long-run real exchange rates for least developed countries (LDCs) are expected to rise in CO2 emissions in Asian and African countries with improved trade and net foreign asset positions. The relative productivity and trade openness also increase the exchange rate, which also plays a vital role in the growth of CO2 emissions. Except for Egypt, all least developed countries (LDCs) currencies are overpriced throughout the research period at the same time; it would be harmed by increased openness, foreign direct investment inflows, and currency misalignment. Overvaluation harms Bahrain’s economic growth. In comparison, undervaluation helps Egypt that currency misalignment does not affect financial growth in any LDCs over the long run. In the short-run, more real investment, net foreign assets, and official assistance inflows would enhance financial growth in Qatar, Bahrain, Singapore, and South Korea. In contrast, trade openness would slow it down in Egypt and Kuwait. The study suggested that the poor economic performance is due to RER misalignment, which occurs when exchange rate policies are improper and causes a rise in CO2 emissions in many developing countries.

Cointegration analysis of public debt in Kenya

In this paper, we consider cointegration analysis in a VECM framework. More precisely, we analyse the macroeconomic indicators so as to identify the determinants of Kenya's public debt for the period 2001 to 2021 by applying the Johansen cointegration test coupled with VECM analysis. Quarterly time series data sourced from CBK are used. Public debt is the dependent variable while independent variables are USD exchange rate, capital and reserves, trade balance, budget deficit, net foreign assets, interest payments on debts and credit to the private sector. Firstly, the variables are tested for stationary using unit root test. Trade balance, budget deficit, and interest payments on debts are stationary in the levels while public debt, USD exchange rate, capital and reserve, net foreign asset, and the credit to the private sector are non-stationary, however, stationary at first difference making them integrating time series of order one at a 5\% level of significance. Secondly, the VAR model is estimated using OLS. The results of the ECM indicate cointegration relationship with error term of 0.0454. The ECM identifies net foreign asset, USD exchange rate, and capital and reserves as the main determinants of increasing public debt following a long-run relationship. Net foreign assets and credit to the private sector reduces public debt while USD exchange rate and capital and reserves increases public debt in a long-run relationship. Thirdly, the VECM model is statistically significant at a 5\% level. Finally, under the prevailing financial mechanism, public debt is projected to hit Ksh 9.453 trillion mark with a margin of error of 0.556 trillion by June 2023.

Real exchange rate misalignment and economic growth in East African least developed countries

The behavior of real exchange rate remained an important policy concern for small open economies as its poor management adversely affects their economy with substantial welfare losses. This study examined the main drivers of real effective exchange rate (REER) misalignment and its effect on the economic growth of East African least developed countries (LDCs). The study applied Pooled Mean Group (PMG) and dynamic OLS estimators for panel and ARDL Bound testing for time series data over the period 1980–2019. The panel results revealed that the REER of LDCs were significantly misaligned for the study period. The REER appreciates for an improved terms of trade and net foreign asset position, while it depreciates for an increased trade openness and broad money supply in the long-run. The panel results also confirmed that the GDP per capita would improve for an increase in real investment and human capital, while it decline for an increase in openness, net foreign aid inflows and REER misalignment in the long-run. The ARDL bound testing results generally support the panel estimation results. In the short-run, the REER misalignment would impede growth of Ethiopia while it promotes growth of Kenya. Thus, the central banks and policy makers of East African LDCs should initiate a consistent macroeconomic policies and regulatory frameworks focusing on the main drivers of equilibrium REER to correct currency misalignment and to support their promising economic growth.

Monetary sterilization response to the movements in exchange rates and official net foreign assets: a case of China

Monetary sterilization response to the movements in exchange rates and official net foreign assets: a case of China

ANALYZING INTERNATIONAL CAPITAL FLOWS TO DEVELOPING AND EMERGING MARKET COUNTRIES USING A TWO-COUNTRY DYNAMIC STOCHASTIC GENERAL EQUILIBRIUM (DSGE) MODEL UNDER ASYMMETRIC INFORMATION STRUCTURE

In this study, in order to investigate the different forms of capital flow between developing and developed countries in the steady state, a two-country dynamic stochastic general equilibrium (DSGE) model, under asymmetric information, is developed. For simulating countries, the parameters of previous studies are used. The results showed that international risk-sharing can explain the Lucas paradox. In both symmetric and asymmetric information structures, net foreign assets in the forms of stocks in steady state are negative for developing countries. In other words, in the steady state, capital exits from the developing country in the form of bonds and enters these countries in the form of stocks. Besides, net capital inflows in the form of stocks and net outflows of capital in the form of bonds in the present model under asymmetric information are larger than that under symmetric information structure. Furthermore, impulse function results show that the two countries are highly correlated. So, the occurrence of a shock in one country changes the production and consumption of another country. But the impact of the shock on macro variables in the country itself is greater than in another.

Risk forecasting for the Russian economic sectors in the context of sanctions ramp-up

Subject. This article discusses the problems of the Russian economy stabilization and the international sanctions' peculiarities. Objectives. The article aims to define the forecast net foreign assets measure value impact on the level of financial risk for the Russian economy. Methods. For the study, I used a statistical analysis including the time series extrapolation method. Results. The article reveals that industries with a low percentage of import substitution are at the greatest risk if the sanctions ramp up. The article also confirms a steady downward trend in the net foreign assets value, which causes instability of the national currency exchange rate. Conclusions. Almost all sectors of the Russian economy are at risk of destabilization. The functioning of the economy in difficult conditions depends on the cohesion of the Government and business.

Central African Economic and Monetary Community

CEMAC ended 2021 in a fragile external position, with gross reserves at only 2.7 months of prospective imports and net foreign assets (NFA) at their lowest level in decades, despite the availability of Fund financing, the SDR allocation, and monetary policy tightening. The terms of trade shock this year is expected to be broadly positive for CEMAC. This more favorable outlook is, however, subject to heightened external uncertainties associated with the fallout from the war in Ukraine (notably global inflation pressure, global growth uncertainties, and high oil price volatility), faster-than-anticipated global financial tightening, possible emergence of new COVID strains and risks from cryptoassets. Current high oil prices, if sustained, will help rebuild fiscal and external buffers, provided fiscal policies remain prudent. Shielding vulnerable populations from soaring energy and food prices adds to the complexity of navigating this uncertain environment, given CEMAC’s already limited policy options.

SONOMA: a Small Open ecoNOmy for MAcrofinance

We develop a new small open economy model (SONOMA) in which domestic corporate debt and equities are affected by shocks to both external credit and equity markets. In a novel empirical analysis of several small-but-developed economies, we show that both external debt and equity shocks are important determinants of domestic economic fluctuations, corporate leverage, and net foreign asset positions. SONOMA replicates our empirical facts about asset prices, financial flows, and economic activity.

External sustainability in Spanish economy: Bubbles and crises, 1970–2020

AbstractWe address the issue of the sustainability Spain's external debt, using data for the period 1970–2020. To detect episodes of potentially explosive behavior of the Spanish net foreign assets over GDP ratio and the current account balance over GDP ratio, as well as episodes of external adjustments over this long period, we employ a recursive unit root test approach. Our empirical analysis leads us to conclude that there is some evidence of bubbles in the ratio between Spanish net foreign assets and the GDP. In contrast, the evidence that the ratio between the Spanish current account balance and the GDP had explosive subperiods is very weak. The episode of explosive behavior identified in the position of net foreign assets during the period 2002–2015 was the result of the country's economic expansion 1995–2007. The results also show an external adjustment during the period 2008–2019 after the start of a cyclical economic recession.

Money Supply Behavior in Egypt (2004-2019)

This study aims to investigate whether money supply behaviour in Egypt is exogenously or endogenously determined using data from 2004 to 2019. It aims to identify the determinants of money supply in Egypt and the most important tools used by the central bank to manage it. The study employs the Johansen-Juselius test (1990) to examine the long-run determinants of money supply in Egypt and the error correction model to examine the short-run determinants. We conclude that real GDP, discount rate, budget deficit, and net foreign assets have significant long-term effects on money supply, whereas exchange rate and net domestic assets have no effects. We recommend higher degrees of cooperation between the Central Bank of Egypt and the institutions responsible for the formulation of financial and commercial policies. we also recommend that the central bank continue monitoring foreign assets and strengthen its supervisory activities on banking institutions.

Monetary Policy and Macroprudential Policy in Fixed Exchange: The Case of the Bank of Central African States

This article examines the nature of the policy-mix between monetary policy and macroprudential policy in the member countries of the Bank of Central African States (BCAS). For this, we test a monetary rule “augmented” by the financial stability objective using a regime-switching panel model over the period 2006-2018. The results show that the nature of the policy-mix between monetary policy and macroprudential policy depends on the economic situation, assessed by the evolution of BCAS’s net foreign assets.

The End of Privilege: A Reexamination of the Net Foreign Asset Position of the United States

The End of Privilege: A Reexamination of the Net Foreign Asset Position of the United States

Emerging Markets Interest Rates, International Reserves and Net Foreign Assets

AbstractIn the context of a managed float regime, we adopt the portfolio balance view to show the effects of the net foreign assets of an economy and its gross international reserves level on interest rate differentials. We argue that the interest rate differential can be explained by three components, where the components are the expected depreciation of the domestic currency, a default risk premium, and a portfolio balance premium. Our theoretical analysis suggests that the interest differential is a convex function of the level of gross international reserves. In particular, the differential and gross reserves are inversely related at low levels of reserves, but positively at higher levels. We evaluate our framework for the case of Lebanon. We find that the differential is inversely related to both net foreign assets and gross international reserves. These findings are then confirmed with data from Indonesia and Mexico.