Net External Assets Research Articles

External Debt and Exchange Rate Fluctuations in Iran: Markov Switching Approach

When net External assets change, the money supply of a country and also the central bank’s debt will change. Exchange rate is much more important in countries like Iran, because a great portion of government’s revenue comes from the External exchange of natural resources. So, exchange rate directly influences the government’s financial situation, revenues, and costs. As External debt is one of the main financing resources of budget deficit, thus how it will be spent can positively or negatively affect the exchange rate fluctuations. This research tried to study the effect of External debt on exchange rate by using monetary approach to exchange rate, and to that end used time series data for 1981–2017 period. In addition, due to the nonlinear relationship between the variables based on the LR and BDS test, nonlinear models were used to estimate. The results show that External debt and money supply have positive and significant effect on exchange rate. So, monetary policy can derivate the exchange rate from its long-run trend. In contrast, the difference between domestic and external production has a negative and significant effect on the exchange rate.

External Dependence of the African Franc CFA zone. Empirical Investigations on Money Supply Process

The objective of this paper is to study the operating mechanisms of the issuing institutions in CFA area and the different sources of money creation. Our approach consists in studying, respectively the automatic or discretionary nature of monetary policies, through the establishment of non-neutralization/non-sterilization monetary indices (index); and in a second step we test, using co-integration models, the evolution of monetary base in relation of Net External Asset (NFA) and in relation to the evolution of Net Domestic Assets. Our results mainly indicate the existence of a preponderance of the external sector or NFA over the evolution of the monetary base or money supply, compared to the domestic sector. In addition, we observe an automatic adjustment in both WAEMU and CEMAC over the long term. But the return to equilibrium is slower in WAEMU due to a mix of automation and discretion. On the other hand, in CEMAC, the return to equilibrium is almost automatic with a strong dependence on the external sector.

The La Marca model revisited: Structuralist goodwin cycles with evolutionary supply side and balance of payments constraints

AbstractThis research is aimed at investigating the causes of volatility that affect middle‐income countries by studying the La Marca model. Drawing from the open‐economy Goodwin tradition, this model demonstrates that economic activity, income distribution and accumulation of foreign assets dynamically interact, resulting in a pattern of dampened cycles. The study consists in analyzing the characteristics of the model by initially imposing: (I) a constant real exchange rate; (II) a constant net external asset to capital ratio, which is in line with the balance of payments dominance theory and (III) a fixed income distribution. We then (IV) expand the original model by adding an evolutionary supply‐side in which productivity is at the center of the economic dynamic through international technology transfer and the Kaldor‐Verdoorn effect. The results show that (1) the model always converges. (2) The restrictions (I) and (II) remove the cyclical component of the model, which highlights a central difference between La Marca and the original Goodwin model. (3) Fixed income distribution leads to a monotonic trajectory that reduces oscillations. (4) The inclusion of productivity dynamics generates new sources of volatility in the relationship between productivity, capacity utilization and net external assets and is in line with the structuralist argument of structural fragility.

Global imbalances from a stock perspective: The asymmetry between creditors and debtors

After the global financial crisis, a reduction in global current account (flow) imbalances was observed. Still, global disequilibria as measured in terms of countries’ net foreign assets (stock imbalances) kept increasing. This paper explores the link between stock and flow imbalances. Our results show that stock imbalances are self-correcting or stabilizing in debtor countries but self-feeding or destabilizing in creditor countries. In debtor economies, the negative net foreign asset position improves the current account balance, helping to limit the accumulation of net external debt. In creditor countries, the positive net foreign asset position also improves the current account, leading to additionally increasing net external assets. The decomposition of the current account reveals that the income balance widens stock imbalances in both cases. The asymmetry between creditors and debtors is explained by the differential behavior of the trade balance, which fails to adjust in the case of creditors.

Revisiting the Monetary Presentation of the Euro Area Balance of Payments

We explain how the external counterpart of the euro area M3 can be analysed by using the euro area balance of payments (b.o.p.). This is possible because the net external assets of the monetary financial institutions (MFIs) are present in two statistical frameworks that follow similar conventions: the balance sheet items (BSI) of MFIs and the balance of payments statistics. The first step to including external flows in the monetary analysis is to understand the nature of the flows between resident money holders and the rest of the world. This is possible thanks to the monetary presentation of the b.o.p, which provides information on the nature of external transactions and therefore guidance on the persistence of the monetary signal stemming from external flows.Over the past five years, the increase in the euro area’s external competitiveness has given rise to a sustained current account surplus that has consistently supported monetary inflows into the euro area. At the same time, portfolio transactions, which closely reflect financial and monetary policy conditions, have fluctuated significantly, increasing monetary inflows in the period from mid-2012 to mid-2014 and turning them into net outflows during the asset purchase programme (APP) period.

Optimal Monitoring and Mitigation of Systemic Risk in Financial Networks

This paper studies the problem of optimally allocating a cash injection into a financial system in distress. Given a one-period borrower-lender network in which all debts are due at the same time and have the same seniority, we address the problem of allocating a fixed amount of cash among the nodes to minimize the weighted sum of unpaid liabilities. Assuming all the loan amounts and asset values are fixed and that there are no bankruptcy costs, we show that this problem is equivalent to a linear program. We develop a duality-based distributed algorithm to solve it which is useful for applications where it is desirable to avoid centralized data gathering and computation. Since some applications require forecasting and planning for a wide variety of different contingencies, we also consider the problem of minimizing the expectation of the weighted sum of unpaid liabilities under the assumption that the net external asset holdings of all institutions are stochastic. We show that this problem is a two-stage stochastic linear program. To solve it, we develop two algorithms based on Monte Carlo sampling: Benders decomposition algorithm and projected stochastic gradient descent. We show that if the defaulting nodes never pay anything, the deterministic optimal cash injection allocation problem is an NP-hard mixed-integer linear program. However, modern optimization software enables the computation of very accurate solutions to this problem on a personal computer in a few seconds for network sizes comparable with the size of the US banking system. In addition, we address the problem of allocating the cash injection amount so as to minimize the number of nodes in default. For this problem, we develop two heuristic algorithms: a reweighed l1 minimization algorithm and a greedy algorithm. We illustrate these two algorithms using three synthetic network structures for which the optimal solution can be calculated exactly. We also compare these two algorithms on three types random networks which are more complex.

Sovereign Risk Premia and the International Balance Sheet: Lessons from the European Crisis

The external dimension has emerged as an important factor in the euro debt crisis. The crisis has also shown that fluctuations in risk premia can be dramatic. We investigate the relevance of the net international investment position for sovereign risk perception and the role of market uncertainty in this relation. Furthermore, we ask whether the composition of net external assets, in terms of debt and equity instruments, is relevant in explaining sovereign risk premia and their fluctuations in time. We find that both public debt and NIIP are subject to fluctuations in risk premia; the external variable is more sensitive to the uncertainty of future expectations, and net external debt is what drives this result. Net foreign debt liabilities are associated with a lower government bond yield spread when market optimism justifies their presence with high future growth patterns; however, it becomes an important risk factor for sovereigns when global uncertainty increases and the capacity to repay foreign debt becomes a concern. Portfolio equity and FDI are related to sovereign risk in a stable manner, while a given amount of net external debt can be associated with government yield spread spikes as high as 4 %.

El comportamiento del tipo de cambio real en Colombia: ¿explicado por sus fundamentales?

In this work, we study the behavior of the real exchange rate (RER) of Colombia, with the help of a co-integration model that takes into account the interaction between the RER and a group macroeconomic determining factors, using quarterly data from the period 1994–2012. These fundamentals include a new relative productivity indicator that enables us to estimate the impact of the Balassa-Samuelson effect on the RER of Colombia. This methodology helps to detect the quarters in which the RER is far from its co-integration relationship and thus, is not explained by the behavior of its fundamentals. The results indicate that the real appreciation observed since the end of 2003 is mainly explained by the increase in terms of trade, and secondly by a proxy of the Balassa-Samuelson effect and due to factors with medium term effects such as the rates differential and risk. Additionally, the dynamics of the RER is mainly explained by the movement in net external assets in the short term and by government consumption in the medium term.

On Net External Assets in Developed and Transition Countries

The paper focuses on net external assets (NEA) in developed and transition countries in 1995, 2000, and 2005. The net international investment position is used as the main NEA indicator. In addition, alternative NEA estimates for developed countries are based on the cumulated current account, the cumulated financial and capital accounts, and the net factor income from abroad. The NEA estimates are divided by the gross domestic product (GDP) based on the U.S. dollar exchange rate. We identify the most important net creditors and net debtors, for which we study the average behavior of the real product growth, the unemployment rate, and the inflation rate among developed countries. We conclude that all the given estimates of NEA are good but imperfect.

Global Habits, Habit Differentials, and International Macroeconomic Adjustment to Income Shocks

In a two-country model with habit formation, we focus on interdependent macroeconomic adjustments to global and country-specific income shocks. Global habits and habit differentials play key roles in the global equilibrium dynamics, possibly nonmonotonic, and in the determination of international asset distribution. A country’s steady-state holdings of net external assets rely on (i) weighted income difference in excess of habit differentials and (ii) global income in excess of global habits. Local income shocks have greater effects on the international asset distribution than global income shocks. With habit formation, positive income shocks lower the world interest rate, thereby harming the creditor country and benefitting the debtor country due to the intertemporal terms-of-trade effect. In contrast to the case of trade theory, this intertemporal immiserizing growth effect is more likely to be caused by global income shocks than by country-specific income shocks.

Valuation effects and the dynamics of net external assets

‘Valuation effects’ can imply that the traditional current account is an inaccurate measure of the change in the net foreign asset (NFA) position. This paper uses new developments in the analysis of portfolio choice in general equilibrium to investigate valuation effects in a two-country model. Broadly speaking, the valuation effects in the model correspond to those observed in the data. But there is a key distinction between ‘unanticipated’ and ‘anticipated’ valuation effects. Unanticipated effects can be large, dominating the movement in NFA, but anticipated effects arise only at higher orders of approximation and are small for reasonable parameterizations.

On Net External Assets in Regions And States of the U.S.A.

We present rough estimates of net external assets for 8 regions and 51 states of the United States. These estimates have been derived from the data on gross state product and state personal income. We identify the largest creditors and debtors and observe relatively important disparities in net external assets across the states and regions. The analysis is also focused on various trends in the indebtedness of regional economies. Using the correlation matrices for selected base years, the degree of capital mobility across regions and states is quantified. We provide some evidence that states are more open to capital flows than regions. In the end, the convergence of net external assets between 1980 and 2000 is confirmed.

UK External Imbalances and the Sterling: Are they on a Sustainable Path?

An updated version of Krugman's 1993 MMF framework is used to consider the implications of buoyant domestic demand for the real exchange rate and debt dynamics. The updating includes a Taylor rule for monetary policy and explicit treatment of external assets and liabilities. In response to an exogenous rise in the aggregate demand, short-run appreciation of the real exchange rate is followed by a prolonged decline as external debt accumulates and net wealth deteriorates. Whether in equilibrium the real exchange rate is stronger or weaker depends crucially on a comparison of real interest rates and the growth rate. If the domestic growth rate is higher than global real interest rates, the currency may strengthen in the long run despite the deterioration of net external assets. To see whether the strength of sterling is sustainable, the analysis is briefly calibrated to UK data over the last decade. Blanchard et al. (The US current account and the dollar. CEPR DP no 4888, 2005) suggest that international liabilities to be treated as imperfect substitutes: so we check to see how this would affect our results.

International Recycling Channels of Petrodollars

The continued rise in oil prices since 2002 has resulted in a significant increase in export revenue for oil exporting countries. This increase in the price of oil and other commodities means that OPEC countries and Russia have received, between 2003 and 2006, a windfall of 1.3 trillion dollars with respect to their export level in 2002. This paper analyzes, using the limited data available, the recycling of these resources back to the world economy through the trade channel, via higher imports, or the financial channel, via an increase in the net external asset position of these countries. Our results show that around 50% of the windfall revenue has been used to increase imports, while the rest has been directed towards international reserve accumulation and other improvements in the net asset position of these countries. Comparing the current oil price increase with previous ones, such as those resulting from the tightening of oil supply in the 70's, we find that the trade channel has been more important in the current episode than in previous ones. This can be attributed to (i) the perception of a more permanent increase in the price of oil in the context of rising demand, and (ii) the gradualism of the current oil price increase, which has allowed a stronger response from imports.

Capital Flows to Central and Eastern Europe

We examine the evolution of the net external asset positions of Central and Eastern Europe (CEEC) countries over the past decade, with a strong emphasis on the composition of their international balance sheets. We assess the extent of their international financial integration, compared with the advanced economies and other emerging markets, and highlight the salient features of their external capital structure in terms of the relative importance of FDI, portfolio equity, and external debt. In addition, we briefly describe the country and currency composition of their external liabilities. Finally, we explore the implications of the accumulated stock of external liabilities for future trade and current account balances.

Revisiting the Money Demand Function in the Euro Area (in French)

recent years, the dynamics of M3 in the euro area have been driven by two factors: a strong preference for liquidity, observed between 2001 and 2003, followed by a normalisation, at a relatively moderate pace, of portfolio behaviour; as regards the counterparts, changes in M3 and net external assets were of comparable magnitude. These factors highlight the role of national and international portfolio shifts in monetary developments. Furthermore, the traditional specifications of the money demand function sometimes yield unsatisfactory results: instability of short and long-term coefficients, relatively large differences between the estimated and actual value of monetary aggregates, and significant changes in the number of long-run relations. Hence the idea of constructing a money demand function that excludes the external counterpart of M3 or, alternatively, introducing financial asset prices in the demand function of M3, as suggested by Friedman (1988). First, the basic equation, based on the quantitative equation of money, was reestimated in order to verify, for example, whether extending the estimation period or revising certain variables would not result in a major change, notably in terms of the stability of the parameters or the number of structural relations. Indeed, this equation exhibits two instabilities (parameters and the number of long-run relations). Similar results are obtained when the external counterpart of M3 is not taken into account. However, by including European share prices, we obtain a substitution effect (significantly negative coefficient) of this variable and a better adjustment, without affecting the two long-run relations (money demand and the Fisher relation) discussed in the article published in Banque de France Monthly Digest No. 113. So, all other things being equal, a decline in European stock market yields would result in a rise in real money holdings and a decrease in the velocity of circulation of money. Equity market developments therefore appear to be a significant explanatory factor for the dynamics of M3 in the euro area. Lastly, estimates of the real money gap, based on the money demand equation factoring in the substitution effect associated with European stock price developments, point to moderate but persistent excess liquidity in the euro area.

Capital Flows to Central and Eastern Europe

We examine the evolution of the net external asset positions of Central and Eastern Europe (CEEC) countries over the past decade, with a strong emphasis on the composition of their international balance sheets. We assess the extent of their international financial integration, compared with the advanced economies and other emerging markets, and highlight the salient features of their external capital structure in terms of the relative importance of FDI, portfolio equity, and external debt. In addition, we briefly describe the country and currency composition of their external liabilities. Finally, we explore the implications of the accumulated stock of external liabilities for future trade and current account balances.

Is Africa a Net Creditor? New Estimates of Capital Flight from Severely Indebted Sub-Saharan African Countries, 1970-1996

This paper presents estimates of capital flight from 25 low-income sub-Saharan African countries in the period 1970 to 1996. Capital flight totaled more than $193 billion (in 1996 dollars); with imputed interest earnings, the accumulated stock of flight capital amounts to $285 billion. The combined external debt of these countries stood at $178 billion in 1996. Taking capital flight as a measure of private external assets, and calculating net external assets as private external assets minus public external debts, sub-Saharan Africa thus appears to be a net creditor vis-a-vis the rest of the world.

Is Africa a Net Creditor? New Estimates of Capital Flight from Severely Indebted Sub-Saharan African Countries, 1970-96

This article presents estimates of capital flight from 25 low-income sub-Saharan African countries in the period 1970 to 1996. Capital flight totaled more than $193 billion (in 1996 dollars); with imputed interest earnings, the accumulated stock of flight capital amounts to $285 billion. The combined external debt of these countries stood at $178 billion in 1996. Taking capital flight as a measure of private external assets, and calculating net external assets as private external assets minus public external debts, sub-Saharan Africa thus appears to be a net creditor vis-à-vis the rest of the world.

Consumption, external assets and the real interest rate

An intertemporal model is used to explain the long-run behavior of external assets. The model predicts that consumption, income and net external assets are cointegrated; a maximum likelihood procedure is used to test this hypothesis and to test linear restrictions implied by the model. Seven countries are considered with variable results. The model performs well for the United States and Germany, but yields improbable estimates of the real interest rate for the smaller economies considered. Adjustments for currency valuation effects improve the results for some of the small economies.