Nested Case Control Study Research Articles

Alkali and alkaline earth elements in follicular fluid and the likelihood of diminished ovarian reserve in reproductive-aged women: a case‒control study

BackgroundImbalances in alkali elements (AEs) and alkaline earth elements (AEEs) cause reproductive disorders. However, it remains unclear whether AEs/AEEs in follicular fluid have a relationship with the serious reproductive disorder known as diminished ovarian reserve (DOR).MethodsA nested case‒control study was carried out in China. Follicular fluid samples from 154 DOR patients and 154 controls were collected and assessed for nine AEs/AEE levels. Both the mixed and single effects of the elements on DOR were estimated with a Bayesian kernel machine (BKMR) and logistic regressions.ResultsThe DOR group had higher median concentrations of Li, Na, and K in follicular fluid (all P values < 0.05). The logistic regression showed that compared with their lowest tertile, the high tertiles of K [OR:2.45 (1.67–4.43)], Li [OR: 1.89 (1.06–3.42)], and Cs [OR: 1.97 (1.10–3.54)] were significantly associated with the odds of DOR. The BKMR model reported that the DOR likelihood increased linearly across the 25th through 75th percentiles of the nine-AE/AEE mixture, while the AE group contributed more to the overall effect.ConclusionThis study revealed an association in which the likelihood of DOR increased with higher overall concentrations of AE/AEEs in follicular fluid. Among the nine detected elements, K, Li, and Cs exhibited significant individual associations with DOR. We provide new clues for the environmental factors on female fertility decline.Trial registrationRetrospectively registered.

Weighted metrics are required when evaluating the performance of prediction models in nested case–control studies

BackgroundNested case–control (NCC) designs are efficient for developing and validating prediction models that use expensive or difficult-to-obtain predictors, especially when the outcome is rare. Previous research has focused on how to develop prediction models in this sampling design, but little attention has been given to model validation in this context. We therefore aimed to systematically characterize the key elements for the correct evaluation of the performance of prediction models in NCC data.MethodsWe proposed how to correctly evaluate prediction models in NCC data, by adjusting performance metrics with sampling weights to account for the NCC sampling. We included in this study the C-index, threshold-based metrics, Observed-to-expected events ratio (O/E ratio), calibration slope, and decision curve analysis. We illustrated the proposed metrics with a validation of the Breast and Ovarian Analysis of Disease Incidence and Carrier Estimation Algorithm (BOADICEA version 5) in data from the population-based Rotterdam study. We compared the metrics obtained in the full cohort with those obtained in NCC datasets sampled from the Rotterdam study, with and without a matched design.ResultsPerformance metrics without weight adjustment were biased: the unweighted C-index in NCC datasets was 0.61 (0.58–0.63) for the unmatched design, while the C-index in the full cohort and the weighted C-index in the NCC datasets were similar: 0.65 (0.62–0.69) and 0.65 (0.61–0.69), respectively. The unweighted O/E ratio was 18.38 (17.67–19.06) in the NCC datasets, while it was 1.69 (1.42–1.93) in the full cohort and its weighted version in the NCC datasets was 1.68 (1.53–1.84). Similarly, weighted adjustments of threshold-based metrics and net benefit for decision curves were unbiased estimates of the corresponding metrics in the full cohort, while the corresponding unweighted metrics were biased. In the matched design, the bias of the unweighted metrics was larger, but it could also be compensated by the weight adjustment.ConclusionsNested case–control studies are an efficient solution for evaluating the performance of prediction models that use expensive or difficult-to-obtain biomarkers, especially when the outcome is rare, but the performance metrics need to be adjusted to the sampling procedure.

Association of circulating long-chain free fatty acids and incident diabetes risk among normoglycemic Chinese adults: a prospective nested case–control study

BackgroundLong-chain free fatty acids (FFAs) are associated with risk of incident diabetes. However, a comprehensive assessment of the associations in normoglycemic populations is lacking. ObjectivesOur study aimed to comprehensively investigate the prospective associations and patterns of FFA profiles with diabetes risk among normoglycemic Chinese adults. MethodsThis is a prospective nested case–control study from the China Cardiometabolic Disease and Cancer Cohort (4C) study. We quantitatively measured 53 serum FFAs using a targeted metabolomics approach in 1707 incident diabetes subjects and 1707 propensity score–matched normoglycemic controls. Conditional logistic regression models were employed to estimate odds ratios (ORs) for associations. Least Absolute Shrinkage and Selection Operator (LASSO) penalty regression and quantile g-computation (qg-comp) analyses were implemented to estimate the association between multi-FFA exposures and incident diabetes. ResultsThe majority of odd-chain FFAs exhibited an inverse association with incident diabetes, wherein the ORs per SD increment of all 7 saturated fatty acids (SFAs), monounsaturated fatty acid (MUFA) 15:1, and polyunsaturated fatty acid (PUFA) 25:2 were ranging from 0.79 to 0.88 (95% CIs ranging between 0.71 and 0.97). Even-chain FFAs comprised 99.3% of total FFAs and displayed heterogeneity with incident diabetes. SFAs with 18–26 carbon atoms are inversely linked to incident diabetes, with ORs ranging from 0.81 to 0.86 (95% CIs ranging between 0.73 and 0.94). MUFAs 26:1 (OR: 0.85; 95% CI: 0.76, 0.94), PUFAs 20:4 (OR: 0.84; 95% CI: 0.75, 0.94), and 24:2 (OR: 0.87; 95% CI: 0.78, 0.97) demonstrated significant associations. In multi-FFA exposure model, 24 FFAs were significantly associated with incident diabetes, most of which were consistent with univariate results. The mixture OR was 0.78 (95% CI: 0.61, 0.99; P = 0.04159). Differential correlation network analysis revealed pre-existing perturbations in intraclass and interclass FFA coregulation before diabetes onset. ConclusionsThese findings underscore the variations in diabetes risk associated with FFAs across chain length and unsaturation degree, highlighting the importance of recognizing FFA subtypes in the pathogenesis of diabetes.

Butyrate and iso-butyrate: a new perspective on nutrition prevention of gestational diabetes mellitus

BackgroundDietary imbalance, such as a lower proportion of complex carbohydrates and a higher protein diet, may contribute to gestational diabetes mellitus (GDM) risks through their metabolisms. However, there is a lack of knowledge regarding the association between butyrate, iso-butyrate, and GDM, which are metabolisms of the two primary nutrients above. This study aimed to clarify the association of butyrate and iso-butyrate with GDM.MethodsA nested case–control study was conducted based on the Beijing Birth Cohort Study (BBCS) from 2017 to 2018. Totally, 99 singleton women were involved (GDM: n = 49, control: n = 50). All participants provided blood samples twice (in their first and second trimesters). Gas chromatography-mass spectrometry (GC-MS) was used for butyrate and iso-butyrate detection. Unconditional logistic regression and receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve analysis were used for statistical analysis.ResultsThe results showed that butyrate in the first trimester was negatively correlated with GDM (odds ratio (OR): 0.00, 95% confidential interval (CI): 0.00–0.21, P = 0.008), and iso-butyrate in the second trimester was positively related to GDM (OR: 627.68, 95% CI: 40.51–9724.56, P < 0.001). The ratio (butyrate/iso-butyrate) was negatively associated with GDM, both in the first trimester (OR: 0.00, 95%CI: 0.00–0.05, P < 0.001) and in the second trimester (OR: 0.52, 95% CI: 0.34–0.80, P = 0.003). The area under the curve (AUC) using the ratio in the first trimester combined with clinical risk factors achieved 0.89 (95% CI: 0.83–0.95). Iso-butyrate in the second trimester combined with clinical risk factors achieved an AUC of 0.97 (95% CI: 0.92–1.00).ConclusionsHigh iso-butyrate and low butyrate levels may be associated with an increased risk of GDM. As they are produced through dietary nutrient formation by gut microbiota, further studies on the association of dietary intake and butyrate or iso-butyrate concentration in plasma may help find a novel approach to nutritional intervention for GDM.

COVID-19 Vaccine Effectiveness among Patients with Psoriatic Disease: A Population-Based Study.

Limited information is available on the effectiveness of COVID-19 vaccination in patients with psoriasis and psoriatic arthritis (psoriatic disease (PsD)). The objective of our research was to assess the effectiveness of mRNA COVID-19 vaccination in preventing SARS-CoV-2 positivity and severe infection in a cohort of patients with PsD and the association of immunosuppressants on SARS-CoV-2 infection-related outcomes from December 2020 to December 2021. Vaccine effectiveness was assessed in a matched nested case control study using conditional logistic regression adjusted for demographics, comorbidities and immunosuppressant use. Study outcomes included SARS-CoV-2 positivity and severe COVID-19 (moderate-to-severe COVID-19-related hospitalizations or death). At least one dose of mRNA COVID-19 vaccine was associated with reduced risk of SARS-CoV-2 positivity and severe COVID-19 (OR = 0.41 (95% CI, 0.38-0.43) and OR = 0.15 (95% CI, 0.11-0.20), respectively). A more significant effect was found among patients who received three vaccines doses compared with those who did not receive any (OR (for positive SARS-CoV-2) = 0.13 (95% CI, 0.12-0.15) and OR (for severe disease) = 0.02 (0.01-0.05)). Etanercept and methotrexate were associated with higher risk of SARS-CoV-2 positivity (1.58 (1.19-2.10), p = 0.001 and 1.25 (1.03-1.51), p = 0.03, respectively). In conclusion, our results show that mRNA COVID-19 vaccines are effective in reducing both infection and severe COVID-19-related outcomes.

Associations between maternal blood metal concentrations during the first trimester and spontaneous preterm birth: a nested case-control study

BackgroundFew studies have utilized whole blood samples to investigate the association between metal mixture exposure during early pregnancy and spontaneous preterm birth (SPB). We conduct this nested case–control study to investigate both the independent and joint effect of each metal, and identify critical metals in the metal mixture.ResultsA total of 120 pregnant women with SPB and 120 pregnant women with full-term delivery were selected from the prospective birth cohort. We measured 14 metal concentrations in maternal blood collected during 10–13 weeks gestation. Conditional logistic regression showed that high concentrations of vanadium (V), magnesium, and copper were positively associated with SPB (Adjusted OR = 5.76 (95% CI 2.46–13.53), 3.64 (95% CI 1.64–8.09), 2.88 (95% CI 1.29–6.41), respectively). Moderate manganese (Mn) concentration (50th–75th percentile) group had the lowest estimated OR (Adjusted OR = 0.32 (95% CI 0.13–0.76)). The high level of strontium (Sr) was negatively associated with SPB (Adjusted OR = 0.39 (95% CI 0.17–0.91)). The BKMR model showed a significant positive joint effect of metal mixture exposure on SPB, while V was the most important metal. The non-linear effects of V and lead (Pb) on SPB, and the interaction effects between V–Pb, Sr–Mn were also revealed.ConclusionsMaternal blood metal mixtures in the first trimester were found to be positively associated with SPB, with V exhibiting the strongest independent association. Mn had a potential U-shaped association with SPB. Elimination of metal contamination in the environment has a positive impact on maternal and child health.

Expression of immune-related genes and breast cancer recurrence in women with ductal carcinoma in situ

Background and aimDuctal carcinoma in situ (DCIS) is a non-obligate precursor of invasive breast cancer with highly variable clinical behavior, but risk stratification is still challenging. We sought to identify immune-related gene expression signatures of pure DCIS associated with different risks of breast cancer recurrence. MethodsA retrospective nested case-control study of 143 pure DCIS was performed including 70 women with subsequent ipsilateral breast event (IBE, in situ or invasive; cases) and 73 DCIS women with no IBE and matched for age, tumor size, treatment, hormone receptors/HER2 status, and follow-up time (controls). RNA was extracted from DCIS samples and subjected to next-generation sequencing gene expression analysis of 395 immune-related genes. Correlations between DCIS immune-related gene expression and IBE were analyzed using weighted Cox regression for nested case-control data. ResultsEight immune-related genes were differentially expressed between cases and controls. MAGEA10 expression (present vs. absent) and high expression levels of IFNA17 and CBLB (Q4 vs. Q1) were observed more frequently in DCIS of women with subsequent IBE, mainly invasive (p-valueFDR < 0.05). Conversely, expression of IL3RA1, TAGAP, TNFAIP8, and high expression levels of CCL2 and LRP1 were associated with a lower risk of IBE (p-valueFDR < 0.05). ConclusionThis exploratory analysis of pure DCIS showed significant differences in immune-related gene expression profiles between women with and with no subsequent IBE, particularly as invasive IBE. These results, after additional validation, could improve risk stratification and management of DCIS patients.

Association of the AhR, ARNT, and AhRR gene polymorphisms and cord blood AhR levels with elevated cord blood IgE susceptibility in Taiwan mother-infant pairs: a nested case–control study

ABSTRACT The roles of aryl hydrocarbon receptor (AhR), AhR-nuclear translocator (ARNT), and AhR repressor (AhRR) genes in the elevation of cord blood IgE (CbIgE) remained unclear. Our aims were to determine the polymorphisms of AhR, ARNT, and AhRR genes, cord blood AhR (CBAhR) level, and susceptibility to elevation of CbIgE. 206 infant-mother pairs with CbIgE>=0.35 IU/ml and 421 randomly selected controls recruited from our previous study. Genotyping was determined using TaqMan assays. Statistical analysis showed AhR rs2066853 (GG vs. AA+AG: adjusted OR (AOR)=1.5, 95%CI=1.10–2.31 and AOR=1.60, 95%CI=1.06–2.43, respectively) and the combination of AhR rs2066853 and maternal total IgE (mtIgE)>=100 IU/ml were significantly correlated with CbIgE>=0.35 IU/ml or CbIgE>=0.5 IU/ml. CBAhR in a random subsample and CbIgE levels were significantly higher in infants with rs2066853GG genotype. We suggest that infant AhR rs2066853 and their interactions with mtIgE>=100 IU/ml significantly correlate with elevated CbIgE, but AhRR and ARNT polymorphisms do not.

The plasma kynurenine-to-tryptophan ratio as a biomarker of tuberculosis disease in people living with HIV on antiretroviral therapy: an exploratory nested case–control study

BackgroundNon-sputum-based tests are needed to predict or diagnose tuberculosis (TB) disease in people living with HIV (PWH). The enzyme indoleamine 2, 3-dioxygenase-1 (IDO1) is expressed in tuberculoid granuloma and catabolizes tryptophan (Trp) to kynurenine (Kyn). IDO1 activity compromises innate and adaptive immune responses, promoting mycobacterial survival. The plasma Kyn-to-Trp (K/T) ratio is a potential TB diagnostic and/or predictive biomarker in PWH on long-term antiretroviral therapy (ART).MethodsWe compared plasma K/T ratios in samples from PWH, who were followed up prospectively and developed TB disease after ART initiation. Controls were matched for age and duration of ART. Kyn and Trp were measured at 3 timepoints; at TB diagnosis, 6 months before TB diagnosis and 6 months after TB diagnosis, using ultra performance liquid chromatography combined with mass spectrometry.ResultsThe K/T ratios were higher for patients with TB disease at time of diagnosis (median, 0.086; IQR, 0.069–0.123) compared to controls (0.055; IQR 0.045–0.064; p = 0.006), but not before or after TB diagnosis. K/T ratios significantly declined after successful TB treatment, but increased upon treatment failure. The K/T ratios showed a parabolic correlation with CD4 cell counts in participants with TB (p = 0.005), but there was no correlation in controls.ConclusionsThe plasma K/T ratio helped identify TB disease and may serve as an adjunctive biomarker for for monitoring TB treatment in PWH. Validation studies to ascertain these findings and evaluate the optimum cut-off for diagnosis of TB disease in PWH should be undertaken in well-designed prospective cohorts.Trial registrationClinicalTrials.gov Identifier: NCT00411983.

A prospective study of smoking-related white blood cell DNA methylation markers and risk of bladder cancer

Bladder cancer, a common neoplasm, is primarily caused by tobacco smoking. Epigenetic alterations including DNA methylation have the potential to be used as prospective markers of increased risk, particularly in at-risk populations such as smokers. We aimed to investigate the potential of smoking-related white blood cell (WBC) methylation markers to contribute to an increase in bladder cancer risk prediction over classical questionnaire-based smoking metrics (i.e., duration, intensity, packyears) in a nested case–control study within the prospective prostate, lung, colorectal, and ovarian (PLCO) Cancer Screening Trial and the alpha-tocopherol, beta-carotene cancer (ATBC) Prevention Study (789 cases; 849 controls). We identified 200 differentially methylated sites associated with smoking status and 28 significantly associated (after correction for multiple testing) with bladder cancer risk among 2670 previously reported smoking-related cytosine–phosphate–guanines sites (CpGs). Similar patterns were observed across cohorts. Receiver operating characteristic (ROC) analyses indicated that cg05575921 (AHHR), the strongest smoking-related association we identified for bladder cancer risk, alone yielded similar predictive performance (AUC: 0.60) than classical smoking metrics (AUC: 0.59–0.62). Best prediction was achieved by including the first principal component (PC1) from the 200 smoking-related CpGs alongside smoking metrics (AUC: 0.63–0.65). Further, PC1 remained significantly associated with elevated bladder cancer risk after adjusting for smoking metrics. These findings suggest DNA methylation profiles reflect aspects of tobacco smoke exposure in addition to those captured by smoking duration, intensity and packyears, and/or individual susceptibility relevant to bladder cancer etiology, warranting further investigation.

Gut barrier dysfunction and the risk of ICU-acquired bacteremia- a case–control study

BackgroundImpaired intestinal barrier function can enable passage of enteric microorganisms into the bloodstream and lead to nosocomial bloodstream infections during critical illness. We aimed to determine the relative importance of gut translocation as a source for ICU-acquired enterococcal bacteremia of unknown origin.MethodsWe conducted a nested case–control study in two mixed medical-surgical tertiary ICUs in the Netherlands among patients enrolled between 2011 and 2018. We selected 72 cases with ICU-acquired bacteremia due to enterococci (which are known gastrointestinal tract commensals) and 137 matched controls with bacteremia due to coagulase-negative staphylococci (CoNS) (which are of non-intestinal origin). We measured intestinal fatty acid-binding protein, trefoil factor-3, and citrulline 48 h before bacteremia onset. A composite measure for Gut Barrier Injury (GBI) was calculated as the sum of standardized z-scores for each biomarker plus a clinical gastrointestinal failure score.ResultsNo single biomarker yielded statistically significant differences between cases and controls. Median composite GBI was higher in cases than in controls (0.58, IQR − 0.36–1.69 vs. 0.32, IQR − 0.53–1.57, p = 0.33) and higher composite measures of GBI correlated with higher disease severity and ICU mortality (p < 0.001). In multivariable analysis, higher composite GBI was not significantly associated with increased occurrence of enterococcal bacteremia relative to CoNS bacteremia (adjusted OR 1.12 95% CI 0.93–1.34, p = 0.22).ConclusionsWe could not demonstrate an association between biomarkers of gastrointestinal barrier dysfunction and an increased occurrence of bacteremia due to gut compared to skin flora during critical illness, suggesting against bacterial translocation as a major vector for acquisition of nosocomial bloodstream infections in the ICU.

Temporal changes in mammographic breast density and breast cancer risk among women with benign breast disease

IntroductionBenign breast disease (BBD) and high mammographic breast density (MBD) are prevalent and independent risk factors for invasive breast cancer. It has been suggested that temporal changes in MBD may impact future invasive breast cancer risk, but this has not been studied among women with BBD.MethodsWe undertook a nested case–control study within a cohort of 15,395 women with BBD in Kaiser Permanente Northwest (KPNW; 1970–2012, followed through mid-2015). Cases (n = 261) developed invasive breast cancer > 1 year after BBD diagnosis, whereas controls (n = 249) did not have breast cancer by the case diagnosis date. Cases and controls were individually matched on BBD diagnosis age and plan membership duration. Standardized %MBD change (per 2 years), categorized as stable/any increase (≥ 0%), minimal decrease of less than 5% or a decrease greater than or equal to 5%, was determined from baseline and follow-up mammograms. Associations between MBD change and breast cancer risk were examined using adjusted unconditional logistic regression.ResultsOverall, 64.5% (n = 329) of BBD patients had non-proliferative and 35.5% (n = 181) had proliferative disease with/without atypia. Women with an MBD decrease (≤ − 5%) were less likely to develop breast cancer (Odds Ratio (OR) 0.64; 95% Confidence Interval (CI) 0.38, 1.07) compared with women with minimal decreases. Associations were stronger among women ≥ 50 years at BBD diagnosis (OR 0.48; 95% CI 0.25, 0.92) and with proliferative BBD (OR 0.32; 95% CI 0.11, 0.99).DiscussionAssessment of temporal MBD changes may inform risk monitoring among women with BBD, and strategies to actively reduce MBD may help decrease future breast cancer risk.

Physical function trajectory after wrist or lower arm fracture in postmenopausal women: results from the Women’s Health Initiative Study

SummaryLong-term physical functioning trajectories following distal forearm fracture are unknown. We found that women with versus those without distal forearm fracture were more likely to experience a 5-year decline in physical functioning, independent of initial physical functioning level. This association was most evident among women 80 years and older.IntroductionPhysical functioning trajectory following lower arm or wrist fracture is not well understood.PurposeThis study is to evaluate physical functioning trajectory before vs. after lower arm or wrist fracture, stratified by age.MethodsWe performed a nested case–control study of prospective data from the Women’s Health Initiative Study (n = 2097 cases with lower arm or wrist fracture, 20,970 controls). Self-reported fractures and the physical functioning subscale of the RAND 36-item Short-Form Health Survey were assessed annually. We examined three physical functioning trajectory groups: stable, improving, and declining.ResultsMean (SD) number of physical functioning measurements was 5.2 (1.5) for cases and 5.0 (1.4) for controls. Declining physical functioning was observed among 20.4% of cases and 16.0% of controls. Compared to women without lower arm or wrist fracture, women with lower arm or wrist fracture were 33% more likely to experience declining physical functioning (adjusted odds ratio [aOR] 1.33 95% confidence interval [CI] 1.19–1.49, reference group stable or improving physical functioning trajectory). Associations varied by age: age ≥ 80 years aOR 1.56 (95% CI 1.29–1.88); age 70–79 years aOR 1.29 (95% CI 1.09–1.52); age < 70 years aOR 1.15 (95% CI 0.86–1.53) (pinteraction = 0.06). Associations between lower arm or wrist fracture and odds of declining physical functioning did not vary by baseline physical functioning or physical activity level.ConclusionsWomen with lower arm or wrist fracture, particularly those aged 80 and older, were more likely to experience declines in physical functioning than women without such fractures, independent of baseline physical functioning level.

Co-exposure to phthalates and polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons and the risk of gestational hypertension in Chinese women

Phthalates (PAEs) and polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons (PAHs) are frequently detected in females of reproductive age. Many studies have found that environmental PAE and PAH levels are independent risk factors for gestational hypertension. However, exposure to both components is a more realistic scenario. To better assess the health effects of PAEs and PAHs in pregnant women, we explored the associations of exposure to both individual and combined PAEs and PAHs with gestational hypertension. This nested case–control study was a component of a prospective cohort study conducted in Beijing, China. We included 206 women with gestational hypertension and 214 pregnant controls. We used gas chromatography/tandem mass spectrometry (GC–MS/MS) to detect 8 PAEs and 13 PAHs in > 80 % of all collected hair samples. Multiple linear regression models were employed to test the individual associations between each component and gestational hypertension. A quantile-based g-computation (qgcomp) model and a weighted quantile sum (WQS) regression model were used to estimate whether exposure to both PAEs and PAHs increased the risk of gestational hypertension. The individual exposure analyses revealed that diethyl phthalate (DEP), diisobutyl phthalate (DIBP) (both PAEs), benzo(k)fluoranthene (BKF), anthracene, (ANT), and benzo(a)pyrene (BAP) (all PAHs) were positively associated with increased risk of gestational hypertension. In mixed-effect analyses, the qgcomp model indicated that co-exposure to PAEs and PAHs increased the risk of gestational hypertension (odds ratio = 2.01; 95 % confidence interval: 1.02, 3.94); this finding was verified by the WQS regression model. Our findings support earlier evidence that both PAEs and PAHs increase the risk of gestational hypertension, both individually and in combination. This suggests that reductions in exposure to endocrine system-disrupting chemicals such as PAEs and PAHs might reduce the risk of gestational hypertension.

Community credit scores and community socioeconomic deprivation in association with type 2 diabetes across an urban to rural spectrum in Pennsylvania: a case–control study

BackgroundArea-level credit scores (the mean of credit scores for persons in a community) may be a unique indicator of community-level socioeconomic conditions associated with health outcomes. We analysed community credit...

Environmental risk factors for schizophrenia and bipolar disorder from childhood to diagnosis: a Swedish nested case-control study.

Shared genetic risk between schizophrenia (SCZ) and bipolar disorder (BD) is well-established, yet the extent to which they share environmental risk factors remains unclear. We compare the associations between environmental exposures during childhood/prior to disorder onset with the risk of developing SCZ and BD. We conducted a Swedish register-based nested case-control study using 4184 SCZ cases and 18 681 BD cases diagnosed 1988-2013. Cases were matched to five controls by birth year, birth region, and sex. Conditional logistic regression was used to estimate incidence rate ratios (IRR) for SCZ and BD for each exposure (severe childhood infections, adverse childhood experiences (ACEs), substance use disorders (SUDs), urban birth/longest residence). All SUD types were associated with very high risk (IRR 4.9-25.5), and all forms of ACEs with higher risk (IRR 1.5-4.3) for both disorders. In the mutually adjusted models, ACEs demonstrated slightly higher risk for BD (SCZ IRR 1.30, 1.19-1.42; BD IRR 1.49, 1.44-1.55), while for SUD, risk was higher for SCZ (SCZ IRR 9.43, 8.15-10.92; BD IRR 5.50, 5.15-5.88). Infections were associated with increased risk of BD (IRR 1.21, 1.17-1.26) but not SCZ. Urban birth and urban longest residence were associated with higher risk of SCZ (IRR 1.19, 1.03-1.37), while only the combination of urban birth and rural longest residence showed higher risk for BD (IRR 1.24, 1.13-1.35). There were both shared and unique environmental risk factors: SUDs and ACEs were risk factors for both disorders, while infections were more strongly associated with BD and urbanicity with SCZ.

Association between pre-diagnostic circulating lipid metabolites and colorectal cancer risk: a nested case–control study in the European Prospective Investigation into Cancer and Nutrition (EPIC)

BackgroundAltered lipid metabolism is a hallmark of cancer development. However, the role of specific lipid metabolites in colorectal cancer development is uncertain. MethodsIn a case-control study nested within the European Prospective Investigation into Cancer and Nutrition (EPIC), we examined associations between pre-diagnostic circulating concentrations of 97 lipid metabolites (acylcarnitines, glycerophospholipids and sphingolipids) and colorectal cancer risk. Circulating lipids were measured using targeted mass spectrometry in 1,591 incident colorectal cancer cases (55% women) and 1,591 matched controls. Multivariable conditional logistic regression was used to estimate odds ratios (ORs) and 95% confidence intervals (CIs) for associations between concentrations of individual lipid metabolites and metabolite patterns with colorectal cancer risk. FindingsOf the 97 assayed lipids, 24 were inversely associated (nominally p<0.05) with colorectal cancer risk. Hydroxysphingomyelin (SM (OH)) C22:2 (ORper doubling 0.60, 95%CI 0.47-0.77) and acylakyl-phosphatidylcholine (PC ae) C34:3 (ORper doubling 0.71, 95%CI 0.59-0.87) remained associated after multiple comparisons correction. These associations were unaltered after excluding cases diagnosed <5 years after blood collection and were consistent according to sex, age at diagnosis, BMI, and colorectal subsite. Two lipid patterns, one including 26 phosphatidylcholines and all sphingolipids, and another 30 phosphatidylcholines, were weakly inversely associated with colorectal cancer. InterpretationElevated pre-diagnostic circulating levels of SM (OH) C22:2 and PC ae C34:3 and lipid patterns including phosphatidylcholines and sphingolipids were associated with lower colorectal cancer risk. This study may provide insight into potential links between specific lipids and colorectal cancer development. Additional prospective studies are needed to validate the observed associations. FundingWorld Cancer Research Fund (reference:2013/1002); European Commission (FP7: BBMRI-LPC; reference:313010).

Effect of Statins for Primary Prevention of Cardiovascular Disease According to the Fatty Liver Index

IntroductionNonalcoholic fatty liver disease (NAFLD) is associated with increased risk of cardiovascular disease (CVD). We investigated the primary preventive effect of statins on CVD according to the level of fatty liver index (FLI), which is a marker of NAFLD.MethodsWe conducted a nested case–control study on the basis of a nationwide health screening cohort in Korea. The participants were divided into tertiles (T1, T2, and T3) according to their FLI score. Cases were defined as individuals who developed CVD (composite of myocardial infarction and stroke). Three controls were matched to each case and multivariable conditional logistic regression analysis was performed.ResultsWithin a cohort of 206,263 participants without prior CVD, 7044 individuals suffered the primary outcome. For the nested case–control study, we selected these 7044 cases along with their corresponding 20,641 matched controls. Individuals in the T3 tertiles of FLI had a higher risk of CVD than those in the T1 tertile [adjusted odds ratio (OR) 1.30; 95% confidence interval (CI) 1.20–1.40, P < 0.001]. In sub-analyses based on FLI tertiles, statin therapy was associated with a lower risk of CVD (adjusted OR 0.72; 95% CI 0.61–0.85, P < 0.001) in the T3 tertile but not in the T1 and T2 tertiles.ConclusionsStatin therapy was associated with a reduced risk of CVD in individuals with high FLI but not in those with low FLI. Further research is needed to determine the pathophysiologic mechanism between statin and NAFLD.

Value of the NF-κB signalling pathway and the DNA repair gene PARP1 in predicting distant metastasis after breast cancer surgery

The DNA repair gene PARP1 and NF-κB signalling pathway affect the metastasis of breast cancer by influencing the drug resistance of cancer cells. Therefore, this study focused on the value of the DNA repair gene PARP1 and NF-κB pathway proteins in predicting the postoperative metastasis of breast cancer. A nested case‒control study was performed. Immunohistochemical methods were used to detect the expression of these genes in patients. ROC curves were used to analyse the predictive effect of these factors on distant metastasis. The COX model was used to evaluate the effects of PARP1 and TNF-α on distant metastasis. The results showed that the expression levels of PARP1, IKKβ, p50, p65 and TNF-α were significantly increased in the metastasis group (P < 0.001). PARP1 was correlated with IKKβ, p50, p65 and TNF-α proteins (P < 0.001). There was a correlation between IKKβ, p50, p65 and TNF-α proteins (P < 0.001). ROC curve analysis showed that immunohistochemical scores for PARP1 of > 6, IKKβ of > 4, p65 of > 4, p50 of > 2, and TNF-α of > 4 had value in predicting distant metastasis (SePARP1 = 78.35%, SpPARP1 = 79.38%, AUCPARP1 = 0.843; Sep50 = 64.95%, Spp50 = 70.10%, AUCp50 = 0.709; SeTNF-α = 60.82%, SpTNF-α = 69.07%, AUCTNF-α = 0.6884). Cox regression analysis showed that high expression levels of PARP1 and TNF-α were a risk factor for distant metastasis after breast cancer surgery (RRPARP1 = 4.092, 95% CI 2.475–6.766, P < 0.001; RRTNF-α = 1.825, 95% CI 1.189–2.799, P = 0.006). Taken together, PARP1 > 6, p50 > 2, and TNF-α > 4 have a certain value in predicting breast cancer metastasis, and the predictive value is better when they are combined for diagnosis (Secombine = 97.94%, Spcombine = 71.13%).

Biomarker Changes during 20 Years Preceding Alzheimer’s Disease

BackgroundBiomarker changes that occur in the period between normal cognition and the diagnosis of sporadic Alzheimer’s disease have not been extensively investigated in longitudinal studies.MethodsWe conducted a multicenter, nested case–control study of Alzheimer’s disease biomarkers in cognitively normal participants who were enrolled in the China Cognition and Aging Study from January 2000 through December 2020. A subgroup of these participants underwent testing of cerebrospinal fluid (CSF), cognitive assessments, and brain imaging at 2-year–to–3-year intervals. A total of 648 participants in whom Alzheimer’s disease developed were matched with 648 participants who had normal cognition, and the temporal trajectories of CSF biochemical marker concentrations, cognitive testing, and imaging were analyzed in the two groups.ResultsThe median follow-up was 19.9 years (interquartile range, 19.5 to 20.2). CSF and imaging biomarkers in the Alzheimer’s disease group diverged from those in the cognitively normal group at the following estimated number of years before diagnosis: amyloid-beta (Aβ)42, 18 years; the ratio of Aβ42 to Aβ40, 14 years; phosphorylated tau 181, 11 years; total tau, 10 years; neurofilament light chain, 9 years; hippocampal volume, 8 years; and cognitive decline, 6 years. As cognitive impairment progressed, the changes in CSF biomarker levels in the Alzheimer’s disease group initially accelerated and then slowed.ConclusionsIn this study involving Chinese participants during the 20 years preceding clinical diagnosis of sporadic Alzheimer’s disease, we observed the time courses of CSF biomarkers, the times before diagnosis at which they diverged from the biomarkers from a matched group of participants who remained cognitively normal, and the temporal order in which the biomarkers became abnormal. (Funded by the Key Project of the National Natural Science Foundation of China and others; ClinicalTrials.gov number, NCT03653156.)