Neorealist Theory Research Articles

Özgür ÖZDAMAR and Sercan CANBOLAT, Leaders in the Middle East and North Africa: How Ideology Shapes Foreign Policy

It is almost always the case that any Introduction to International Relations course teaches the contributions of Kenneth Waltz to the field, firstly through his grandiose formulation of a theory: it should be simple, parsimonious, abstract, and accordingly, one needs to move away from reality as much as possible to increase the theory’s explanatory and predictive capacity. Moving the individual and state level of analyses aside, Waltz simplifies his theory of international politics at the system/structural level and, with his neorealist theory becoming the dominant approach for a large part of the twentieth century, it put the state in a sort of black box, purposefully ignored individual actors, and targeted the maximum degree of abstraction as possible. In Leaders in the Middle East and North Africa: How Ideology Shapes Foreign Policy, which consists of seven chapters (one introduction chapter, four empirical chapters, one theoretical conclusions chapter and one policy implications chapter), Özdamar and Canbolat aim to shed light on foreign policy belief patterns of leaders in the Middle East and North Africa (MENA), highlighting divergences across them and comparing them to the average world leadership. In the process, and in total opposition to Waltz’s claim, the authors argue that advancing “the actor-specific empirical studies zeroing in on agent behaviors and decisions in the future” is “the only way for IR to establish itself as a scientific discipline” (p. 148). In other words, as opposed to the structural approaches, the authors propound that less abstraction and a more actor-specific, nuanced, and tailored approach would provide significant opportunities for the IR discipline to be scientific.

Чем обусловлен успех военных операций Турции в Сирии в 2017-2020 гг.?

The Arab Spring initially created an opportunity for Turkey to expand its influence through support for the opposition. However, during the civil war in Syria, the Kurds strengthened their influence and took control of the border with Turkey. The authorities in Ankara responded to this change in regional geopolitics with three military operations. This article will discuss operations “Euphrates Shield”, “Olive Branch”, “Spring of Peace”. The purpose of this work is to identify the reasons for Ankara’s military actions in northern Syria from 2016 to 2019. The author proceeds from the fact that although the formation of autonomous Kurdish cantons was a sufficient condition for provoking escalation, the decisive factor was the international system, which allowed Turkey to realize its goals in northern Syria. Using the method of factor analysis, the author identifies the circumstances that had a catalytic effect on the decision of the Turkish authorities to conduct military actions in Syria. While content analysis allows us to determine the attitude of third countries to this Turkish policy. The author analyzes events through the prism of neorealist theory, which puts the international system at the forefront. In conclusion, the author comes up to the statement that the decisive factor that predetermined the outcome of the three Turkish military actions was the reaction of the international community.

France and Iran's Rivalry in the Middle East: Strategies, Interactions, and Consequences

This study argues that France has recently sought to reassert itself as a power in the Middle East, North Africa and the Eastern Mediterranean (MENA), especially in its former colonies. In this context, France's quest for "Pax Mediterranea" under the leadership of Emmanuel Macron, which has intensified its political-military initiatives in the MENA region, is analyzed through the rivalry between Paris and Tehran in Lebanon, Iraq and Syria, which are considered as Iran's spheres of influence in the Middle East. In this context, it is possible to explain the ups and downs of France-Iran relations from a realist perspective based on geopolitical competition, concrete threat perceptions and military-economic factors. Within the framework of neo-realist theory, which emphasizes the need to prevent the rise of regional hegemonic powers, this study argues that France's concern about Iran's growing influence in the region, the conflict of interests they face at the regional level and Iran's efforts to acquire nuclear weapons are the most important reasons for the unfriendly relations between the two countries.

The theory of legal restraints: the actual limits of the judge’s lawmaking power from the perspective of the neorealist theory of interpretation

The modern methodology of judicial interpretation is characterized by an apology of the realistic style of judicial interpretation. The basic theses of the realistic theory of interpretation are the voluntarism of the author of official interpretation and the lack of the function of a normative text which is different from that attached by the official interpretation. As these theses actually allow the sovereignty of the judiciary, the judicial realism faces a justified criticism. However, representatives of the French legal doctrine deny the tendency to form a new sovereign in the person of the judge and highlight special factors - legal restrains which are due to the configuration of the legal system restrain judges’ reasoning in practice, although they are not normative obligations. The article reveals the main points of the theory of legal restraints based on the works of French scholars in the theory and philosophy of law. Also, since the main tool of the realist theory of interpretation is an empirical approach, the provisions of the theory of judiciary restrains are tested on the example of the international justice practice - the European Court of Human Rights. In fact, we conclude that respect for the principle of subsidiarity and recourse to the European consensus can be seen as examples of legal restrains. As a result of the theory of judicial restrains analysis, the author agrees that although it complements the realist theory of interpretation and can act as a tool for studying political and legal discourse, it has certain limitations. For example, the theory of legal restraints offers no objective criteria for identifying and distinguishing them from the normative obligations of the author of interpretation, and is, in general, descriptive. Moreover, the nature of legal restraints shows that their observance remains at the discretion of the subject of interpretation and, therefore, they cannot completely exclude the possibility of his/her absolute discretion.

Azerbaijan’s foreign policy analysis in the perspective of Neorealist Theory: In the example of the Karabakh problem

After Azerbaijan gained its independence, the main problem in its foreign policy was the Karabakh conflict with Armenia. Among the different approaches to solve this problem in foreign policy was the view that a cooperation or conflict-based approach could explain interstate relations and the classical theories of international relations can discuss them; this has been the dominant view in the foreign policy of Azerbaijan.
 We conducted a literature review in developing the conceptual framework for this study. The effect of the anarchic international system on the foreign policy of Azerbaijan, the attitude of the sovereign states and international political organizations in the system, the strategy of Azerbaijan that started with the balance policy, and the 44-day Armenia-Azerbaijan war will be examined from the perspective of neorealist theory. From this, it will be possible to reveal the importance of the balance policy in Azerbaijan's foreign policy.
 This study aims to include the approach to the security problem in the foreign policy of Azerbaijan since its independence, and the strategies it has created to solve the Karabakh problem, using a certain theoretical framework.

A culturalist perspective to Russian international posture in XXI century

Abstract This paper is aimed at proposing an analysis of the Russian geopolitical self-perception in the light of a “culturalist” approach. The paper uses Samuel Huntington’s “model of civilizations” as an interpretative prism, following a multidisciplinary approach which allows to epistemologically validate certain points of the Huntingtonian thesis, and to reject others. This approach does not invalidate the neo-realist theories of international relations regarding the Russian search for a relative increase of power through the use of material factors. If anything, the culturalist perspective must be placed side by side with the neo-realist one in order to better grasp some intangible elements, in particular the attention paid by Moscow to its (former) imperial dimension, the influence exercised by the autocratic tradition on Russia’s international posture, together with the role of geographic space, the ascendency of the Orthodox church, as well as Eurasianist cultural inclinations. Finally, through a critical analysis and a selective review of the academic literature on these issues (as well as of the political texts published by some of the most prominent Russian politicians and intellectuals), the paper aims to demonstrate the self-perceived originality of the Russian model and its difficulty in being placed within the Western political categories.

The Dilemma of War and Peace in the Trend of the XXI Century (Russian – Ukrainian case)

In the presented article the author asks how the essence of the relationship between such states of international relations as war and peace has changed under the influence of the trends of the XXI century. A clear empirical example for such an analysis was the modern Russian-Ukrainian war, a manifestation of which we see on the Donbass. This war was largely the result and manifestation of these new trends in international relations at both the regional and global levels. First of all, these trends and their destructive consequences are typical for the security sphere. From so the dilemma of war and peace takes on a new dimension and becomes one of the most pressing problems of the theory of war and peace and the theory of international relations.
 The purpose of this article is to understand how the essence of the relationship between such states of international relations as war and peace has changed under the influence of the 21st century trends. In order to properly investigate this problem, was chosen as an object, a striking manifestation of which we see on the Donbass. Research questions relate to changing approaches to understanding the dilemma of war and peace and the nature of the relationship between these states of international relations under the influence of the 21st century trends.
 To address this research challenge, a systematic review of contemporary research on various aspects of war and peace has been carried out. The answers are based on a study of the criteria for determining the state of war and peace and the determinants that influence the dynamics of change in these states. The study used deductive methods, comparative, political and conflict analysis, as well as neo-realistic and neoliberal approaches to treating the dilemma of war and peace.
 The article based on the assumption that the modern Russo-Ukrainian war became a consequence and manifestation of these new trends in international relations both at the regional and global levels. The conclusions drawn from this study require a conceptual rethinking and a new reading of the dilemma of war and peace, which are becoming hybrid. Therefore, understanding the new quality of these hybrid forms of war and peace is a very important and necessary task. To solve it, it is necessary to determine how the parameters of the relationship between peace and war have changed. Empirical observations show that one of the new features of this relationship is the blurring of the boundaries of war and peace.
 The objectives of the study are based on the discovery of a new content of the categories of war and peace and their interdependence due to the influence of 21st century trends in the modern system of international relations. The results of the study are based on the analysis of modern research on various aspects of the war and peace, as well as empirical data on the course of the Russian-Ukrainian war.
 This article provides an overview of current research on various aspects of war and peace, identifies the interrelationships, interdependencies, and boundaries between hybrid warfare and hybrid peace. The author tried to define the criteria for such a distinction between war and peace, based on the neoliberal and neorealist theory of international relations. The scientific novelty of this publication is that the author clarified the methodological reasons for the unresolved dilemma of war and peace in the current trends of the 21st century. The article concludes with a forecast of the consequences of the unresolved dilemma of war and peace for national and international security. Recommendations are given for a possible solution to the problem of war and peace on Donbass.
 The research presented in this article is an attempt to conceptually rethink and re-read the dilemmas of war and peace that are becoming hybrid. The article greatly expands the understanding of how the parameters of the relationship between peace and war have changed.

Russian Foreign Policy in Syria 2011 to 2017: Neo-Realist Perspective

During the Cold War, the neo-realist theory emerged, which had an important role in enriching Russian foreign policy, as it showed Russia’s desire in creating a multipolar world on the one hand, and its awareness of regional and global issues on the other. The neo-realist theory is based on the fact that the international communities and international relations of the states are in conflict. State actors pursue policies that intered to increase the power of the state and exploit it in line with its interests and strategy, regardless of its impact on the interests of other countries. The adoption of the neo-realist theory is important, especially the vision of Stephen Walt, who is one of the most important theorists of this school, who looks at the change in the behavior of Russian foreign policy in the post-2011 period in the Middle East in general and Syria in particular from the perspective of neorealism. Accordingly, the position and military intervention carried out by Russia on Syrian territory was a significant turning point in the history of Russian foreign policy in the Middle East, and this intervention is the first test of the Russian power aimed at restoring its status outside its territory, i.e., the countries neighboring Russia, and also reflects its ability to Compet with the United States of America in a region of strategic importance such as Syria. In conclusion, it can be said that the development of Russian foreign policy and its transition from the stage of ideological bases to realism and pragmatism is what characterized the period of President Vladimir Putin’s rule, specifically in Syria after 2011.

Balancing with Jokowi’s Characteristics: A Neoclassical Realism Approach to Indonesia’s Foreign and Security Policies in the South China Sea

The objectives of this article are twofold. First, it seeks to posit Jokowi’s foreign and security policies in the broader historical context of Indonesian foreign and security policymaking. Throughout history, Indonesia’s responses to its external environment, as manifested in its foreign and security policies, have been significantly influenced by a range of domestic factors including leaders’ personality and his/her attitude to international politics. Building upon the historical observation, this article seeks to understand Jokowi’s foreign and security policies in the South China Sea using a neoclassical realism framework. It argues that there has been a shift in Indonesia’s approach to the South China Sea problem, characterised by a more active and pragmatic diplomacy and a more assertive approach to territorial integrity. Both components, however, are not deterministic products of external threats as predicted by neorealist theories. Instead, they are influenced by Jokowi’s personality, attitude towards foreign and security policy and preoccupation of his administration with the domestic agenda.

Does realism explain the Arab Spring? Neorealist alliance formation theories and the Syrian civil war

Dominant International Relations theories—realism/neorealism, liberalism/neoliberalism, and constructivism—have so far developed no rigorous theoretical attempts to interpret the Arab Spring, though some marginal efforts have been made to critique the failure of realism to interpret this historical development. This article presents a neorealist interpretation of the Arab Spring focusing on the Syrian civil war, where conflicts between the pro- and anti-status quo forces have unfolded in alignments and counter-alignments centering around rival domestic and external groups. To explain the involvements of rival alliances in the post-2011 Syrian conflict, namely, the United States–Saudi Arabia–Israel alliance and the Russia–Iran–Syria alliance, this analysis employs neorealist theories of alliance formation—the balance of power and balance of threat theories—as articulated by Kenneth Waltz and Stephen Walt, respectively. The dynamics of these formations in Syria lend more support to Walt’s theory that states balance against threats rather than against power. The complex nature and dynamics of the Syrian war, however, calls for refinements of Walt’s balance of threat theory. Accordingly, the article also explores various refinements of Walt’s theory to better explain future complex civil wars involving highly polarized domestic and external parties.

Freer when constrained? Italy and transatlantic relations during the cold war

ABSTRACT Since the end of WWII, Atlanticism has always been one of the lodestars of Italy’s foreign policy. Although the country’s relations with the U.S. have never been disputed, its degree of autonomy from the Transatlantic partnership has changed over the years. This article delves into such changes starting from a counter-intuitive analytical framework based on the neo-realist theory of International Relations. Such perspective can help explain Italy’s unexpected autonomy in certain periods of the cold war. Accordingly, the article re-examines two historical events: Italy’s elusive conduct during the negotiations of the Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT) and the Achille Lauro/Sigonella crisis in 1985.

Дискуссия о коллективных благах в контексте современных вопросов глобального управления

This article is dedicated to three interconnected concepts – “collective goods”, “free rider” and “hegemony” in the context of modern politics. We analyze three theoretical approaches to the problem of provision of collective goods by hegemonic states. These approaches are: neoliberal, (neo) realist and World-System Theory. Basing on these theoretical premises, we analyze the debate about free-ridng in the Western political discourse (especially among US allies) and we point out that particular interests of US can be disguised as “collective goods”. Basing on this, we analyze discussions about free-riding both in the Western world (among NATO and EU members) and among US allies in the Pacific region (Japan, South Korea, Australia, New Zealand). We point out that in fact US can use the concept of collective goods to push their own agenda. Than we move to popular in western political science idea that China is a global free rider – for instance in the sphere of sea lane security and global energy security. Basing on A. Kennedy works, we demonstrate that China in fact does not wish to make western powers pay the costs of collective goods. China is rather afraid that western powers will exploit his resources. This idea is supported with the evidence, gathered during in-depth interview with Chinese diplomats and foreign policy experts. Having said that, paper points out that mentioned cases mark the importance of the concept of trust. Trust is well-studied in the field of behavioral economics, but IR theory doesn`t usually takes the concept of trust into account. Also this paper raises a question about including historical and cultural topics in the theory of international relations. Basing on analysis of different ways to incorporate economic arguments in IR theory, authors point out that modern IR theory lacks economic argumentation. Paper concludes with the idea that IR theory should capitalize on behavioral economics. Acknowledgements. This paper is a part of MGIMO University research program no. 1921-01-02.

Ethnic heterogeneity as a potential target of active measures of Russia: Identification of vulnerabilities of Polish-Ukrainian relations

This article raises the issue of how the Russian Federation could benefit from the instrumental use of ethnic heterogeneity to pursue its geopolitical interests. The paper focuses on the recent case of a Polish-Ukrainian historical memory dispute which affected relations between Warsaw and Kyiv. The research focus is on how vulnerable Poland and Ukraine are to Russian active measures which potentially target not only national minorities but also groups of people who are only temporarily present in these states, such as economic migrants and tourists. An analysis is conducted of Russia’s geopolitical objectives and its strategy toward Polish-Ukrainian relations in the broader context of the rivalry between Russia and the West. The analysis is conducted within the framework of the neorealist theory of international relations. The case study of specific events discloses how Russia could exacerbate tensions between nations and the role of ethnic heterogeneity in this regard. Against this backdrop, the author shows how Russia may challenge other states of the Euro-Atlantic community with similar active measures.

Neo-Liberal and Neo-Realist Theories Fail to Explain Regional Events; An Example of the Refugees Living in the Middle Black Sea Region within Scope of International Critical Theory

Contrary to traditional theories that accept states as rational and claim that identities are independent of the effects of social relations, international critical theory deals with how individuals, institutions and states are shaped in the historical process. When we examine the current situation in the region from the perspective international of critical theory, we see that international critical theory brings direct, systematic and social explanations of the situation in the region. International critical theory has drawn attention to the dangers of uncontrolled particularism, which can easily deprive 'strangers' from certain rights. Linklater claims that this would be overcome by the establishment of a system based on more cosmopolitan, negotiating, dialogue and rationality, beyond the borders of the sovereign states. If we evaluate the situation in terms of the refugees living in the Central Black Sea region, the universalization and centralization of justice can triggers social transformation in the long run and it can eliminate differences between citizen and people

Idealist, Realist or Neo-Realist Financial Aid Donors to Pakistan

Foreign aid has always been an important source of finance for Pakistan. The flow of foreign aid depends upon the donor’s interest and motives that can differ as some may be truly interested in helping the recipient nation (Mumtaz, 2013). Some donors may have a national interest while others may want to enhance their economic relations which refer to the idealist, realist, and neo-realist theories of motivations respectively (Berthelemy, 2005). The present inquiry is informed by a qualitative interpretive approach based on semi-structured interviews regarding financial aid donor’s motives. The overall results revealed people's perception that America has an inclination for both Pakistan’s nation and region for its own benefits whereas the United Kingdom is interested in human resources. Saudi Arab and China have dual motives, one is the development of Pakistan and the other is security and trade interest respectively. So America is proclaimed as realist donors, United Kingdom as Neo-realist while Saudi Arab and China have mixed motivations. Both are Idealists with some realist and neo-realist motivation correspondingly. However other financial aid donors are not prominent amongst the Pakistani nations.

KEPENTINGAN CINA DALAM PEMBANGUNAN PANGKALAN MILITER DI DJIBOUTI PADA TAHUN 2016

China is not only the most populated country in the world. China's success is so rapidly, especially in the economic field that China so overwhelmed many countries. Entering a new chapter in the 21st century is not only focused on economic, China then renewed its defense policy to strengthen China's sovereignty and achieve its national interests. One of China's strategies was to build its first military base in Djibouti, Africa, in 2016 then. It was a new history for China in its military field. This study aims to analyze the intentions and objectives of China that built its military base in Djibouti using the neorealist theory of Kenneth Waltz. The focus of this research lead to the China’s military base that grown from some factors and the effect on the global order.

Neorealist Theory and Terrorist Groups: A Comparative Study of Descriptive and Explanatory Capacity of Theory

Realism has been the dominant theory on the both academic and practice realms. And later version of realism developed in the late of 1970s called neo-realism. Neo-realism has been able to generate an accurate assessment of international issues. However, the question which remains, is neo-realism applicable for describing and explaining current events especially terrorist groups? Because, in recent years, terrorist groups have achieved recognition as an important actor at international level, and many theorists in the field of international relations have been devoted to this topic. For neo-realists unanimously does not accept that terrorist groups are prosperous main actor in the international arena, because they are not able to change structure of international system or counter state position and power. Moreover, neo-realists have not agreed about suggesting unify strategic for preventing the spread of terrorist groups and implement restrict policies for challenging terrorist threat. Thus, neo-realist thought has come and attack of critiques by other theories including neo-liberalism and constructivism. The purpose of this essay is to provide an evaluation of terrorist groups' argument to prove that neo-realism has been failed to describe and explain terrorist groups; this is conducted through the use of an example referring to ISIS.

Neorealist Theory and Terrorist Groups: A Comparative Study of Descriptive and Explanatory Capacity of Theory

Realism has been the dominant theory on the both academic and practice realms. And later version of realism developed in the late of 1970s called neo-realism. Neo-realism has been able to generate an accurate assessment of international issues. However, the question which remains, is neo-realism applicable for describing and explaining current events especially terrorist groups? Because, in recent years, terrorist groups have achieved recognition as an important actor at international level, and many theorists in the field of international relations have been devoted to this topic. For neo-realists unanimously does not accept that terrorist groups are prosperous main actor in the international arena, because they are not able to change structure of international system or counter state position and power. Moreover, neo-realists have not agreed about suggesting unify strategic for preventing the spread of terrorist groups and implement restrict policies for challenging terrorist threat. Thus, neo-realist thought has come and attack of critiques by other theories including neo-liberalism and constructivism. The purpose of this essay is to provide an evaluation of terrorist groups' argument to prove that neo-realism has been failed to describe and explain terrorist groups; this is conducted through the use of an example referring to ISIS.

Americké vojenské doktríny nové generace

The article is based on the neorealist theory and is aimed to the analysis of the military doctrines of the USA published between 2012 - 2018. It evaluates them as the consequence of important changes after the end of the Cold War, namely the process of the enlargement of NATO. The article explains the US doctrines as a manifestation of a reinforced military self - esteem of the USA and warns that these doctrines should lead to an increase of the military tension at the Eastern frontier of the enlarged NATO.

Water as a Weapon of War in the Tigris-Euphrates Basin

The paper aims to present water as a weapon of war in the Tigris-Euphrates Basin, as well as the role and significance of water for a new architecture of global security. The main goal of the study is to find an answer to the research question of whether water the Tigris-Euphrates Basin will be still a tool for fighting or cooperation as an effective tool for facing strategic challenges. The research hypothesis is that the issue of challenges related to water in the Euphrates River basin will, first of all, follow the social and political-economic relations between Turkey, Iraq and Syria and external factors. The research was conducted using a descriptive-analytical method. Moreover, this research is based on the neorealist theory of international relations, and the concept of international constellation analysis, as well as the theory of neo-institutionalism. Future anarchical global security architecture will lead to a hegemonic system of water relations. Therefore, without international coordination and far-reaching strategy in the face of the emerging anarchic global security structure, stable water cooperation in this region cannot be reached.