Чем обусловлен успех военных операций Турции в Сирии в 2017-2020 гг.?

Abstract

The Arab Spring initially created an opportunity for Turkey to expand its influence through support for the opposition. However, during the civil war in Syria, the Kurds strengthened their influence and took control of the border with Turkey. The authorities in Ankara responded to this change in regional geopolitics with three military operations. This article will discuss operations “Euphrates Shield”, “Olive Branch”, “Spring of Peace”. The purpose of this work is to identify the reasons for Ankara’s military actions in northern Syria from 2016 to 2019. The author proceeds from the fact that although the formation of autonomous Kurdish cantons was a sufficient condition for provoking escalation, the decisive factor was the international system, which allowed Turkey to realize its goals in northern Syria. Using the method of factor analysis, the author identifies the circumstances that had a catalytic effect on the decision of the Turkish authorities to conduct military actions in Syria. While content analysis allows us to determine the attitude of third countries to this Turkish policy. The author analyzes events through the prism of neorealist theory, which puts the international system at the forefront. In conclusion, the author comes up to the statement that the decisive factor that predetermined the outcome of the three Turkish military actions was the reaction of the international community.