Neoclassical Trade Theory Research Articles

Manufacturing Export Performance, Public Capital and Proximity to the Technological Frontier of Countries*

The paper seeks to understand the pattern of manufacturing exports in 35 developed and developing countries and 99 industrial sectors over the period 1999-2013 using a methodological approach that relies on propositions of the neoclassical trade theory. Next to the impact of traditional factors such as the endowment of public capital, we look at the importance of accounting for public capital heterogeneity, by distinguishing countries based on their proximity to the technology frontier. We consider public capital as a non-rival factor, which has a property of “creation of atmosphere” in a model that treats factor intensity as a mechanism of industrial development. We use the system GMM technique to estimate the elasticities of public capital. Our results show that public capital plays a differentiated role in the capacity to export industrial goods depending on whether countries are far or close to the technological frontier.

Impact of WTO’s Trade Liberalisation on Selected Food Crops in Pakistan

There is a great potential in Pakistan for production of all types of food commodities due to vast natural resource base, covering various ecological and climatic zones. Most of the agricultural commodities produced in the country are consumed by the local population while the rest is exported in the form of primary products and some value added products. Previously, Pakistani products had a good market overseas with no restrictions of quality and quantity but under the changing environment affected by WTO, it is expected that Pakistan will face a strong competition in the agriculture sector from its competitors in the world market. According to the neoclassical trade theory, trade flows and pattern will develop along the lines of comparative advantage and competitiveness that can act as indicators of trade potential and direction. There has been extensive government involvement in the determination of the overall structure of agriculture and its patterns of production, employment and trade. Pakistani government has been intervening in agriculture sector in the past in order to support agricultural production, income supports, ensure food security, improve the balance of trade, reduce consumer prices, address environmental and regional concerns and to pursue sanitary and phyto-sanitary objectives [Hassan (1995)]. Pakistan is a founding member of the General Agreement on Tariffs and Trade (GATT) since its creation. Following the Uruguay Round negotiations, all agricultural products were brought under multinational trade rules by WTO, under the Agreement on Agriculture. This established a framework to begin liberalising agricultural trade through the reduction of import duties (tariffs), trade-distorting production subsidies and export subsidies. Prior to the Uruguay Round, trade in agriculture was highly distorted. Market access for agricultural products was limited as most markets were restricted by physical import barriers. The presence of massive domestic subsidies led to overproduction of temperate crops in the developed countries that led to excess supply, and export subsidies were used to dump the surplus agricultural output in international markets. This resulted in depressed market prices and, in spite of being low-cost producers of agricultural products; developing countries could not compete with the subsidised exports from developed countries.

An analysis of export of indian agriculture commodities

The present work has attempted to examine the relationship between agricultural export and the effective factors influencing the same relationship in India. The review of literature has provided an overview of growth of agricultural exports across the countries and different methods used to calculate the export supply function of agricultural products. This study is based on the neoclassical trade theory which is evaluated in a neoclassical production function framework, incorporating an additional factor of production (exports) into the production function. The study has attempted to analyze the long run and the short run relationship between agricultural exports as dependent variable and exchange rate, export price index, gross domestic product and domestic production of agricultural product as independent variables based on annual data during 1980- 2010. Also, World Trade Organization as a dummy variable has been taken as a determinant of India's agricultural exports. The autoregressive distributed lag model and error correction model are used to determine the long run and short run relationship between the variables. Further, paired t-test is used to investigate the impact of WTO on growth of agricultural export in India. Dynamic econometric model is estimated to test for time series properties, unit root test and cointegration (ARDL procedure). The results of cointegration test showed that the variables are cointegrated. The results of long-run estimated coefficients of export supply function showed that exchange rate had a statistically significant and negative impact on agricultural export. The long-run coefficient of domestic production of agricultural product and export price index have positive sign and are significant at 5% level respectively. The long-run coefficients of Gross Domestic Product (GDP) and WTO as dummy variable had positive and negative sign respectively but are insignificant. In brief, the coefficient of the ECM is very high at (−) 0.54 implying a fairly high speed of adjustment to the long-run disequilibrium after a shock. The Coefficient of the ECM term suggested that adjustment process was fast and 54% of the previous year's disequilibrium in equity prices from its equilibrium path will be corrected in the current year. It is also observed that dummy variable is not significant in long run but it is statistically significant in short term.

ANALISA HUBUNGAN ANTARA PRODUK DOMESTIK BRUTO DAN EKSPOR INDONESIA (UJI KAUSALITAS GRANGER)

This study entitled "Analysis of The Relationship Between Gross Domestic Product and Indonesian Exports (Granger causality test)”. This research was conducted because of the dualism of the theory between the two variables. In macroeconomic theory, the relationship between Gross Domestic Product is one of the similarities, because exports contribute to Gross Domestic Products on the demand side, while neoclassical trade theory emphasizes causality related to household production and assistance for exports.The purpose of this study is to determine the relationship between Gross Domestic Product and exports. This study uses several analytical methods: Unit Root Test, CointegrationTest, Granger Causality Test using the E-views program7 and using Quarterly data.The results of the estimation of this study are the estimation of the relationship in GDP and exports, or in other words the Gross Domestic Product affects Indonesia's exports. This is concluded based on the estimation results that can be seen from the statistical F value that is greater than the f-table (8.958205> 3.841466) on the Null hypothesis. GDP is not an Export Granger with a 95% confidence level. This means, GDP affects exports When GDP can affect the level of exports in the intervals of 2000 to 2012.Keywords:Gross Domestic Product(GDP), Exports, Granger Causality Test

The Heckscher-Ohlin Theorem and the Mexican Economy 1980, 1990, 2003 and 2013

Neoclassical trade theory is largely based on the Heckscher-Ohlin (H-O) theorem. This proposition has survived all criticisms for many decades and it is still the basis for orthodox free-market trade policies. The theorem has been tested by various methodologies under different scenarios. Still, the most cited test was conducted by Wassily Leontief for the US economy using its 1947 input-output table. However, his results contradicted the theorem’s predictions, which gave rise to the so-called, ‘Leontief paradox’. We test the H-O theorem as applied to the Mexican economy to find out whether the economic strategy with free trade has bolstered Mexico’s comparative advantages based on its relative factor endowments, as the theorem maintains. Our results clearly show that the H-O theorem does not apply to Mexico in the period following trade liberalization.

An Analysis of Export of Indian Agriculture Commodities

The present work has attempted to examine the relationship between agricultural export and the effective factors influencing the same relationship in India. The review of literature has provided an overview of growth of agricultural exports across the countries and different methods used to calculate the export supply function of agricultural products. This study is based on the neoclassical trade theory which is evaluated in a neoclassical production function framework, incorporating an additional factor of production (exports) into the production function. The study has attempted to analyze the long run and the short run relationship between agricultural exports as dependent variable and exchange rate, export price index, gross domestic product and domestic production of agricultural product as independent variables based on annual data during 1980- 2010. Also, World Trade Organization as a dummy variable has been taken as a determinant of India’s agricultural exports. The autoregressive distributed lag model and error correction model are used to determine the long run and short run relationship between the variables. Further, paired t-test is used to investigate the impact of WTO on growth of agricultural export in India. Dynamic econometric model is estimated to test for time series properties, unit root test and cointegration (ARDL procedure). The results of cointegration test showed that the variables are cointegrated. The results of long-run estimated coefficients of export supply function showed that exchange rate had a statistically significant and negative impact on agricultural export. The long-run coefficient of domestic production of agricultural product and export price index have positive sign and are significant at 5% level respectively. The long-run coefficients of Gross Domestic Product (GDP) and WTO as dummy variable had positive and negative sign respectively but are insignificant. In brief, the coefficient of the ECM is very high at (-) 0.54 implying a fairly high speed of adjustment to the long-run disequilibrium after a shock. The Coefficient of the ECM term suggested that adjustment process was fast and 54% of the previous year’s disequilibrium in equity prices from its equilibrium path will be corrected in the current year. It is also observed that dummy variable is not significant in long run but it is statistically significant in short term. Key words: agricultural exports, production function, Gross Domestic Product, WTO

Inequality in a global economy: evidence from Germany

In the wake of the Melitz (Econometrica 71(6):1695–1725, 2003) model of heterogeneous firms in international trade, new theoretical models arose that try to assess the impact of trade on wage inequality within sectors, a feature that neoclassical trade theory cannot sufficiently explain. Based on the predictions of Helpman et al. (Econometrica 78(4):1239–1283, 2010), we use the LIAB, a German linked employer–employee panel dataset, in order to provide empirical evidence that wage inequality first increases and then decreases with gradual trade liberalization.

Comparative Advantage and Optimal Trade Policy *

Abstract The theory of comparative advantage is at the core of neoclassical trade theory. Yet we know little about its implications for how nations should conduct their trade policy. For example, should import sectors with weaker comparative advantage be protected more? Conversely, should export sectors with stronger comparative advantage be subsidized less? In this article we take a first stab at exploring these issues. Our main results imply that in the context of a canonical Ricardian model, optimal import tariffs should be uniform, whereas optimal export subsidies should be weakly decreasing with respect to comparative advantage, reflecting the fact that countries have more room to manipulate prices in their comparative-advantage sectors. Quantitative exercises suggest substantial gains from such policies relative to simpler tax schedules.

Trade, FDI, Migration, and the Place Premium: Mexico and the United States

Large wage differences between countries (place premiums) are well documented. Neoclassical trade theory suggests that factor price convergence should follow increased commercial integration. Rising commercial integration, foreign direct investment, and migration followed the 1994 North American Free Trade Agreement between the United States and Mexico. This paper evaluates the degree of wage convergence between Mexico and the United States between 1988 and 2011. We match survey and census data from Mexico and the US to estimate the change in wage differentials for observationally identical workers over time. We find no evidence of long-run wage convergence among cohorts characterized by low migration propensities although this was, in part, due to large macroeconomic shocks. On the other hand, we do find some evidence of convergence for workers with high migration propensities. Finally, we find evidence of convergence in the border of Mexico vis-A -vis its interior in the 1990s but this was reversed in the 2000s. We conclude that the place premium is largely stable, even following large reductions to trade and investment barriers and high migration.

Coase and International Business: The Origin and Development of Internalisation Theory

The internalisation theory of the multinational enterprise (MNE) is a significant intellectual legacy of Ronald Coase. US direct investment in Europe became highly political in the 1960s, and neoclassical trade theory had no explanation. A theory of the multiplant enterprise was required, and internalisation theory filled this gap. Using Coasian economics to explain the ownership of production plants and the geography of trade to explain their location, internalisation theory offered a comprehensive account of MNEs and their role in the international economy. This paper outlines the development of the theory, explains the Coasian contribution, and examines in detail the early work of Hymer, McManus and Buckley and Casson. It then reviews the current state of internalisation theory and suggests some future developments. Copyright © 2014 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Globalization and Wage Convergence: Mexico and the United States

Neoclassical trade theory suggests that factor price convergence should follow increased commercial integration. Rising commercial integration and foreign direct investment followed the 1994 North American Free Trade Agreement between the United States and Mexico. This paper evaluates the degree of wage convergence between Mexico and the United States between 1988 and 2011. We apply a synthetic panel approach to employment survey data and a more descriptive approach to Census data from Mexico and the US. First, we find no evidence of long-run wage convergence among cohorts characterized by low migration propensities although this was, in part, due to large macroeconomic shocks. On the other hand, we do find some evidence of convergence for workers with high migration propensities. Finally, we find evidence of convergence in the border of Mexico vis-a-vis its interior in the 1990s but this was reversed in the 2000s.

Stages of diversification in a neoclassical world

Recent research has documented a U-shaped industrial concentration curve over an economy’s development path. How far can neoclassical trade theory take us in explaining this pattern? We estimate the production side of the Heckscher–Ohlin model using industry data on 44 developed and developing countries for the period 1976–2000. Decomposing the implied changes in industrial concentration over time shows that at least one third of these changes seems to be explained by a Rybczynski effect. This result suggests that capital accumulation led poor countries to diversify their industrial production, while rich countries made their production more concentrated in highly capital-intensive industries.

Stages of Diversification in a Neoclassical World

Recent research has documented a U-shaped industrial concentration curve over an economy's development path. How far can neoclassical trade theory take us in explaining this pattern? We estimate the production side of the Heckscher-Ohlin model using industry data on 44 developed and developing countries for the period 1976-2000. Decomposing the implied changes in industrial concentration over time shows that at least one third of these changes seems to be explained by a Rybczynski effect. This result suggests that capital accumulation led poor countries to diversify their industrial production, while rich countries made their production more concentrated in highly capital-intensive industries.

Adam Smith's theory of absolute advantage and the use of doxography in the history of economics

This article reconstructs Adam Smith's theory of international trade and compares it with the way it is presented in modern textbooks as the theory of absolute advantage. This textbook presentation falls short of Smith's original ideas. I argue that the reason for this is the doxographic reconstruction of Smith's theory to fit him into a Whig history of international trade theory. In this way the historiography of international trade theory has falsely established Smith as a forerunner of modern neoclassical trade theory. I conclude by discussing to what extent Smith's insights can still be relevant today and what can be learnt from the mistreatment Smith has suffered in the historiography of international trade theory.

The effects of the economic crisis on income convergence in the European Union

This paper evaluates income convergence in the European Union, between “old” (EU15) and “new” member states from Central and East Europe (CEE10), and among the countries within these two groups. The GDP per capita convergence should be expected according to the exogenous economic growth model and neoclassical trade theory. The presence ofσ-convergence and both absolute and conditionalβ-convergence is tested for on a sample of 25 European Union countries (EU25). Results confirm the existence ofβ-convergence of GDP per capita at purchasing power parity among EU25, but not among EU15 and CEE10 countries.σ-convergence has been confirmed among EU25 and CEE10 countries, while GDP per capita has been diverging in the EU15 group of countries. Moreover, the results reveal that recent economic crisis has reversed long-term tendencies and led to income convergence within EU15 and divergence within CEE10. During the crisis, the income differences among the EU25 countries have increased, but the scope and duration of this effect has been limited and has not affected the long term convergence path. However, the obtained long term speed of convergence is significantly lower compared with the previous researches.

Effects of Border Price Changes on Agricultural Wages and Employment in Mexico

AbstractThis paper measures the impact of North American Free Trade Agreement–induced real border price changes of Mexican imports and exports on wages and employment of agricultural workers in Mexico. I find that changes in real border prices of crops did not affect agricultural wages. On the other hand, increases in the real price of vegetables (main agricultural export) were associated with an increase in employment in the cultivation of vegetables, whereas the drop in the real price of corn (main agricultural import) reduced the employment in the corn sector. This is in line with the predictions of neoclassical trade theory: in the absence of mobility costs or sector‐specific skills, factors moved smoothly from import‐competing sectors into export‐competing sectors. Copyright © 2012 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Technology, factor endowments, and China's agricultural foreign trade: a neoclassical approach

PurposeThe purpose of this paper is to explain the determination of China's agricultural foreign trade pattern since the World Trade Organization (WTO) accession.Design/methodology/approachThe neoclassical trade theory indicates that differences in both technology levels and factor endowments can explain the international trade pattern. In terms of a neoclassical framework based on the restricted profit function, this paper employs the province‐level panel data to investigate whether China's agricultural foreign trade pattern is consistent with the neoclassical explanation.FindingsThe findings indicate that China's agricultural foreign trade pattern is evidently characterized by regional specific features. In the eastern region, agricultural foreign trade pattern is jointly determined by differences in technology levels and factor endowments. Agricultural foreign trade patterns are driven in the central and western regions by land and capital endowments, respectively. The findings also imply that the utilization of comparative advantage in China's agriculture needs to be exploited further.Originality/valueAs far as the author knows, this paper is the first to apply the neoclassical framework based on the restricted profit function and employ the province‐level panel data to investigate the determination of China's agricultural foreign trade pattern.

International trade and global growth with capital accumulation, heterogeneous households and elastic labour supply

The purpose of this study is to build a multi-country growth model with endogenous labour supply, capital accumulation and heterogeneous households, basing on the Oniki-Uzawa trade model. We show that the dynamics of the world economy with any number of countries and any number of household types in each country can be expressed by a set of differential equations. We simulate the global economy with three countries and two household types in each country, specifying the production functions with the Cobb-Douglas form. The world dynamics has a unique stable equilibrium point. Our model demonstrates, as Grier and Grier (2007) empirically show, that the global economy exhibits absolute divergence in output levels if some determinants of steady state income are also divergence. As our model allows any number of household types in each country, we can explain some distributional issues in international trade which the traditional neoclassical trade theory fails to explain. We also carry out comparative dynamic...

ENDOGENOUS MARKET STRUCTURES AND STRATEGIC TRADE POLICY*

We characterize the optimal export promoting policies for international markets whose structure is endogenous. Contrary to the ambiguous results of strategic trade policy for markets with a fixed number of firms, it is always optimal to subsidize exports as long as entry is endogenous, under both competition in quantities and in prices. With homogenous goods the optimal export subsidy is a fraction 1/€ of the price, where € is the elasticity of demand, the exact opposite of the optimal export tax in the neoclassical trade theory. A similar argument can be applied to show the general optimality of R&D subsidies and of competitive devaluations to promote exports in foreign markets where entry is endogenous.

Is Mexico a Lumpy Country?

Mexico's experience before and after trade liberalization presents a challenge to neoclassical trade theory. Though labor abundant, it nevertheless exported skill-intensive goods and protected labor-intensive sectors prior to liberalization. Post-liberalization, the relative wage of skilled workers rose. Courant and Deardorff (1992) have shown theoretically that an extremely uneven distribution of factors within a country can induce behavior at odds with overall comparative advantage. We demonstrate the importance of this insight for developing countries. We show that Mexican regions exhibit substantial variation in skill abundance, offer significantly different relative factor rewards, and produce disjoint sets of industries. This heterogeneity helps to both undermine Mexico's aggregate labor abundance and motivate behavior that is more consistent with relative skill abundance.