Neoclassical Realist Theory Research Articles

Neoclassical realism(s) vis-à-vis other theories of foreign policy: taking the indistinguishability problem seriously

Neoclassical realism (NCR)’s opponents have considered it an incoherent and indistinctive approach because of its interest in addressing ideational and institutional factors. Specifically, they have denounced NCR’s fuzzily established internal and external conceptual boundaries, corresponding to central dimensions of this approach’s ‘indistinguishability’ problem. Even though NCR has responded in a sophisticated manner to its critics, such a response still falls short of advancing some subtle strategies to forge NCR’s theoretical identity and research design. To fill this gap, I distinguish several neoclassical realist theories (Types I, II, IIA, IIB and III) to clarify NCR works’ common ground and the several options available to the analyst to cope with the indistinguishability problem’s internal dimension. Furthermore, I compare neoclassical realist theories with organizational, bureaucratic, realist, liberal and constructivist approaches to foreign policy to discuss the indistinguishability problem’s external dimension. Dealing with this dimension entails acknowledging that neoclassical realist theories provide a top-down, as compared to a bottom-up approach to explain foreign policy as a policy rather than a process. It also provides a thorough explanation rather than a parsimonious account aimed at distinguishing independent and intervening variables. With different intensities, neoclassical realist theories embrace specific, refined logics of consequentialism rather than appropriateness to explain distinct state preferences rather than assuming power maximization or security seeking as pre-fixed state goals.

Saudi Arabia’s costly war in Yemen: a neoclassical realist theory of overbalancing

Saudi Arabia faced multiple threats from Yemen in 2015: its southern neighbor had collapsed; a hostile sub-state actor, the Houthis, was entrenching itself along the border; and the presence of its rival Iran was growing. Responding was rational; it would have been sub-optimal for Riyadh to underbalance by doing little to counter the threat. Instead, however, Saudi Arabia overbalanced by launching a major air campaign and imposing a maritime and air blockade; as a result, it became bogged down in a costly war it cannot win. Why was this the case, and with what consequences? To answer this question, this article develops and applies a neoclassical realist theory of overbalancing. The first objective is nomothetic: to develop a theory of overbalancing, an important phenomenon neglected by the balancing literature. The second is empirical: to shed light on the Saudi decision to launch the war in Yemen.

Do Statist Ideology and State-Sponsored Nationalism Intervene in Pakistan’s China Policy? A Neoclassical Realist Perspective

In its relations with China from 1972 to 2018, Pakistan has endeavored to extract and mobilize its domestic resources while conducting a foreign policy of balancing under systemic pressures and power disparities. Statist ideology and state-sponsored nationalism have been both useful and influential in this process. While there is abundant literature on ideology, nationalism, and Pakistan’s foreign policy using theoretical foundations, a neoclassical realist approach has yet to be made. This paper seeks guidance from neoclassical realist theory as explored in the works of Taliaferro (2006) and Schweller (2004). We argue that Pakistan’s ties with China have been facilitated domestically by an Islamic statist ideology and anti-Indian state-sponsored nationalism. These both have facilitated internal balancing through the extraction and mobilization of natural resources and emulation while externally they justified Pakistan’s balancing efforts aimed at countering a perceived Indian threat. The nation’s military and civil elites therefore agree on the necessity of closer ties with China.

Elite Consensus and Balancing: A Neoclassical Realist Perspective on Pakistan–China Ties

Classical realism believes in the primacy of systemic pressures as independent variable and suggests states to choose appropriate balancing policies as dependent variable. However, this complex causal chain requires the role of intervening variables, which the neoclassical realist theory offers. This article employs the neoclassical realist perspective to the unexplored case of Pakistan–China ties from 1972 to 2018 presenting a causal chain that explains elite consensus as the intervening variable between the perceived Indian threat and the preference of Pakistani decision-makers for strong Pakistan–China bond. This article presents the theoretical perspective, perceived Indian threat, the balancing options available to Pakistan and elite typology. We conclude by presenting the contribution of elite consensus in Pakistan’s choice for forging closer ties with China as an appropriate balancing strategy against the perceived Indian threat specifically and external threats in general.

Analysis of Turkey’s Foreign Policy Towards the 1956 Suez Crisis from the Perspective of Neoclassical Realist Theory

Bu çalışma Türkiye’nin 1956 Süveyş krizi konusunda yürüttüğü dış politikayı neoklasik realist teori çerçevesinde analiz etmektedir. Bu doğrultuda, bir bağımlı değişken olarak “1956 Süveyş krizine yönelik Türk dış politikasını” analiz etmek için, çalışmanın metodolojisi gereği, “uluslararası sistemsel faktörler” bir bağımsız değişken ve “yerel faktörler” bir ara değişken olarak ele alınmaktadır. Çalışmada 1956 Süveyş krizine yönelik Türk dış politikası yapımı sürecinde belirleyici/sınırlandırıcı bir etkiye sahip olduğu öne sürülen uluslararası sistemin yapısı, Soğuk Savaş döneminde süper güçler arasındaki ideolojik karşıtlık ve nükleer rekabeti ifade eden iki kutupluluk ile ilişkilendirilerek açıklanmaktadır. “Caydırıcı askeri kapasite ihtiyacı”, “Türk dış politikası geleneğindeki Batıcılık eğilimi”, “ekonomik teşvik gereksinimi” ve “karar alıcıların bölgesel liderlik çabası” gibi çeşitli faktörler ise uluslararası sistemin belirleyici/sınırlandırıcı etkilerini yorumlayıcı nitelikteki yerel filtreler olarak ele alınmaktadır. İki farklı analiz düzeyinin kullanıldığı bu çalışmada hem 1956 Süveyş krizine yönelik Türk dış politikasının sistemsel etkilere dayanan “sürekliliği” hem de yerel dinamiklerden kaynaklanan “değişim eğilimi” ortaya konulmaktadır.

Türkiye’nin Dış Politika Davranışının Neoklasik Realist Bir Açıklaması: Bülent Ecevit’in 1978-1979 ve 1999-2002 Hükümetlerinin Karşılaştırılması

This study examines and compares the foreign policy behavior of Türkiye under the premiership of Bülent Ecevit between 1978-1979 and 1999-2002 via utilization of neo-classical realist theory. The article argues that the permissive strategic environment in both periods, détente in the former and unipolar international system in the latter paved the way for Türkiye’s multi-dimensional foreign policy which put special emphasis on neighboring regions. The worldviews of Ecevit and his foreign ministers Gündüz Ökçün and İsmail Cem as well as the emergence of grave economic problems in the country also contributed to the consolidation of region-centric foreign policy streak in both periods. Yet, while the arrival of the Second Cold War in December 1979 following the Soviet intervention in Afghanistan interrupted Türkiye’s multi-dimensional foreign policy stance for a while, the increasing trend towards multi-polarity starting from mid-2000s facilitated Türkiye’s pursuit of more autonomous foreign policy line.

A Neoclassical Realist Theory of Overbalancing

Abstract Why do states overestimate threats and, as a result, mount disproportionately strong and therefore costly balancing responses? To answer this question, we build a neoclassical realist theory of overbalancing to argue that unit-level intervening variables help generate a counterforce greater than what a structurally induced ideal response would call for. We identify the factors and conditions that steer states to deviate from realist, optimal policies, pinpoint the consequences of such suboptimal behavior, and provide policymakers with recommendations more suited to an interest-driven foreign policy in line with power considerations. We apply our theory to two distinct case studies: Egypt's costly intervention in Yemen in the 1960s and the American overreaction to the real, but very limited, threat posed by terrorism since 2001.

The Inhibition and Equilibrium of Policy Effectiveness of the Low-Carbon Economy: Evidence from Liaoning Province of China.

Excessive emissions of carbon dioxide and other greenhouse gases have seriously affected the ecological environment, public health, and the normal operation of the social economy, and the development of the low-carbon economy has become an international consensus. The policy norms are one of the important factors affecting the development of the low-carbon economy; however, the implementation of low-carbon economic policy in many countries has been inhibited. This study chose Liaoning Province of China for the case study, and the policy system, the policy tools, the administrative system, the low-carbon technology, and the low-carbon concept are found to be factors that led to the inhibition of the policy effectiveness of the low-carbon economy in Liaoning Province. We applied the modified Schweller Neoclassical Realist Theory to establish a multi-factor linkage model to demonstrate the overall relationship among various variables. The results show that the equilibrium of policy effectiveness of the low-carbon economy in Liaoning Province depends on different permutations of variables. We also discussed the problems of the policy system, the policy tools, the administrative system, the low-carbon technology, and the low-carbon concept that lead to policy effectiveness inhibition, and used the economic method to set a special mathematical model for maximizing the equilibrium of policy effectiveness of the low-carbon economy in Liaoning Province. In response to the problems of the above factors, strategies to promote the development of the low-carbon economy in Liaoning Province are proposed. This study enriches the research on the policy effectiveness of the low-carbon economy in China and provides some inspiration for the goal of carbon neutrality and other developing countries with high carbon emissions.

The Analysis of Turkish Foreign Policy in Syria: A Neoclassical Realist Perspective

Since 2011, the Syrian Civil War has become an arena of international competition between regional and global powers. As a dominant regional actor, Turkey has important interests in this conflict. However, although great importance is given to civil war factors and power balances at the field level, Turkey’s internal conditions play a role as well as these externalities. Therefore, an analysis of Turkey’s foreign policy towards Syria from a local perspective is needed to reveal some negligible dynamics. In this direction, this study aims to analyse Turkey’s foreign policy towards Syria, taking into account the interaction between Turkey’s external and internal dynamics within the framework of neoclassical realist theory. Within this scope, we ask “how do Turkish external and internal dynamics explain its foreign policy in Syria?” as the leading search question and conduct our analysis using the explanatory case study method. Based on our findings, we provide a broad perspective on the significant impacts of four main internal factors on Turkish foreign policy, from the start of the Civil War to the most recent “Operation Spring Shield” by the Turkish Army and local Syrian armed groups.

RUSSIAN FOREIGN POLICY AND THE LIBYAN CRISIS: A NEOCLASSICAL REALIST ASSESSMENT

The processes taking place in the modern international system are both a catalyst and a consequence of the foreign policy of states. As a result of a number of systemic factors and the domestic political situation in Russia, the Middle East plays an important role on the Russian agenda. Moscow is pursuing an active policy towards the Libyan crisis, which resulted in the actual loss of statehood in Libya, which complicates the stabilization of the situation in the country and in the region. The purpose of this article is to analyze the systemic (independent variable) and domestic (intervening unit-level variables) processes that influence the formation of Russia’s foreign policy in relation to the Libyan crisis, within the framework of the neoclassical realist theory. The significance of this study lies in the application of a relatively new theoretical approach (neoclassical realism) to a case study (the Libyan crisis) in the study of Russian foreign policy.

Refugees in host countries: A comparative study between Uyghurs in Turkey and Tibetans in India

The status of refugees in host nations may depend upon several factors, including the economic situation of the receiving state, political alignments, international commitments, ethnic affinities, the domestic refugee regime, security considerations and bilateral ties with the home country. The study aims to discern the role that bilateral ties and domestic considerations play in the refugee experience. Is there a pattern that can be drawn out from these two factors? The article uses neoclassical realist and critical theories to better understand the phenomena, while employing the case study method to make a comparative study. The study analyses how India and Turkey have dealt with refugees belonging to two ethnic minorities of the Republic of China: the Tibetans and the Uyghurs. The results show that the way the receiving states handle refugees depends greatly on domestic considerations. It becomes clear that even though bilateral ties between the host and the home nation are important, no simple deduction can be made on how this affects the treatment of refugees. Both cases provide varied response patterns; it is only through a blend of realpolitik and critical theory that the phenomena can be understood. Mapping refugees and their movements, as well as their status in the host countries, determines many of the policies created for their welfare. The article therefore attempts to provide a framework for a better understanding of the phenomena by considering bilateral ties and domestic considerations.

Rwanda’s Military Deployments in Sub-Saharan Africa: A Neoclassical Realist Account

ABSTRACT The Rwanda Defence Force recently staged military operations against insurgents in Mozambique and the Central African Republic. Both actions were performed outside regional or multinational efforts. This makes the contemporary actions of Rwanda outliers in the international relations of Sub-Saharan Africa and heralds shifts in conflict management on the continent. An explanation is found in the application of neoclassical realist theory to the case of Rwanda – a first – as the country’s leaders have taken advantage of a permissive strategic environment, high clarity, leaders’ beliefs and a strategic culture to produce the output of extra-regional military deployments.

The Chinese Military-Civil Fusion Strategy: A State Action Theory Perspective

ABSTRACT An analysis of the Chinese military-civil fusion strategy through a neoclassical realist and state action theory perspective highlights that the advent of emerging technologies has opened up an unprecedented opportunity for states to amplify the extraction and mobilisation of resources, conducive to maintaining and increasing their military and economic power in global politics. Underpinned by increasing cooperation between the People’s Liberation Army and private companies as well as state-owned enterprises, the Chinese military-civil fusion strategy can be viewed as a comprehensive strategy of mobilisation and extraction (actively relying on state-driven technology advancement) that has especially drawn upon technology transfer and talent recruitment from abroad. In this regard, China has acted in line with the premises of state action theory.

Transatlantic Relations under Trump Administration and the National Interest Policies in Europe

This paper bases on the research related to the change of US - EU relations under Donald Trump administration in the United States and its effect on the EU member states' pursuing autonomous policies. Recent analyses reveal that under the Trump administration, there has been a change of traditional economic and political relations with the EU member states. How this policy change affected the EU member states has not received much attention. The analysis reveals Trump's questioning the function of NATO and putting tariffs on the products of the EU, supporting Brexit process and having close relations with the far-right leaders of Europe present important evidence of this policy change. This change has been visible in parallel with the leading European countries' creating their own foreign and domestic policies related to increasing the power of anti-EU political parties such as in Poland, Hungary, and the United Kingdom. The analysis thus suggests Trump’s approach to these countries encouraged them to pursue autonomous policies. Moreover, current President of the US, Joe Biden’s connivance of European politics shows the continuation of this policy even without direct support to the far-right leaders of Europe. With the neoclassical realist theory informed analysis, this paper aims to present the effect of Trump administration's restructuring attempts of US - EU relations on EU member states' pursuing autonomous policies.

Roleplay, realpolitik and ‘great powerness’: the logical distinction between survival and social performance in grand strategy

States exist in an anarchic international system in which survival is the necessary precursor to fulfilling all of their citizens’ other interests. Yet states’ inhabitants – and the policymakers they empower – also hold social ideas about other ends that the state should value and how it should pursue them: the ‘role’ they expect their state to ‘play’ in international politics. Furthermore, such role-performative impulses can motivate external behaviours inimical to security-maximization – and thus to the state survival necessary for future interest-fulfilment. This article therefore investigates the tensions between roleplay and realpolitik in grand strategy. It does so through interrogation of four mutual incompatibilities in role-performative and realpolitikal understandings of ‘Great Powerness’, a core – but conceptually contested – international-systemic ordering unit, thereby demonstrating their necessary logical distinctiveness. The argument is illustrated with brief case studies on the United States, China, France, the United Kingdom, Germany and Japan. Identification of such security-imperilling role motives thus buttresses neoclassical realist theory; specifically, as an account of strategic deviation from the security-maximizing realist baseline. Such conclusions carry important implications for both scholarship and statecraft, meanwhile. For once we recognize that roleplay and realpolitik are necessarily distinct incentive structures, role motives’ advocates can no longer claim that discharging such performative social preferences necessarily bolsters survival prospects too.

Neoclassical Realist Theories, Intervening Variables, and Paradigmatic Boundaries

AbstractExtant neoclassical realist scholarship has identified a range of real-world factors (e.g., state capacity, interest group pressure, strategic culture, and leadership personality) that serve as intervening variables between systemic imperatives and states’ foreign policy behavior. Despite these elaborations, the intervening variable concept remains underdeveloped. In this article, I show that neoclassical realists have lumped together three different types of causal factors under the label intervening variable: (1) moderating factors, (2) complementary factors, and (3) primary causes. Making these distinctions explicit will enable scholars to increase the analytical precision of neoclassical realist approaches, choose appropriate research designs to test them, and define more clearly the paradigmatic boundaries of neoclassical realism vis-à-vis other perspectives.

Redrawing borders, reshaping orders: Russia’s quest for dominance in the Black Sea region

ABSTRACT Since Russia’s annexation of Crimea in March 2014, severe limitations have been placed on Ukraine’s coastal state rights and navigational freedoms in the Black and Azov Seas and the Kerch Strait. The “Kerch Strait clash” in November 2018, which resulted in the Russian capture of three Ukrainian naval vessels in international waters south of the strait, can be seen as the temporary culmination of tensions that have been building up over a longer period. In violation of international law and bilateral agreements, Russia has in recent years pursued an increasingly assertive and revisionist policy in the region and sought to turn the maritime spaces on the country’s southwestern flank into a “Russian lake”. This policy is affecting not only the security and economy of neighbouring states such as Ukraine and Georgia, but also the strategic balance in the southeastern corner of Europe. Drawing on empirical evidence derived from Russian, Ukrainian and Western sources, as well as insights from neoclassical realist theory, this article discusses legal, economic and security aspects of Russia’s ongoing quest for a dominant position in the Black Sea region.

The End of Liberal Engagement with China and the New US–Taiwan Focus

Using neoclassical realist theory, this paper focuses on how the liberal logic underpinning the US engagement policy with the People's Republic of China (PRC) – to promote the PRC's greater marketization, internationalization, political opening, and even democratization – has shaped Washington's One‐China/strategic ambiguity policy since 1972. This approach is used to deal carefully with the Taiwan Strait impasse. However, as strategic competitions intensify between the United States and PRC, the Donald Trump administration is strengthening Washington–Taipei ties, in line with conservative nationalism, to counter a more assertive and authoritarian China. Declaring the failure of past engagement upheld by presidents following Nixon, the Trump government is less cautious about upsetting Beijing through the United States' more explicit backing of the island democracy. The United States’ bolstering of Taiwan's status, though short of recognizing its sovereignty, has received strong bipartisan support in Washington and is unlikely to be changed even if Joe Biden, the Democratic nominee, is elected president in November 2020.

Türkiye'nin Suriye Kaynaklı Kitlesel Göçe Yanıtı: Neoklasik Realist Bir Analiz

Migration studies have seldom dealt with the foreign policy dimensions of refugee migration. Additionally, international relations (IR) theories have barely addressed migration policy. The present study seeks to address this gap by analysing Turkey’s response to Syrian mass migration through the lens of neoclassical realist theory. Its purpose is to ascertain to what extent IR theories, particularly neoclassical realism, help us to understand Turkey’s policies and politics addressing Syrian mass migration and changes over time. It questions the pertinence of Turkey’s relative power and its foreign policy objectives in shaping responses to Syrian mass migration. The research also sheds much-needed light not only on dynamism in power-policy relations but also interaction between the international system and internal dynamics in designing migration policies. It aims to stimulate dialogue between IR theories and migration studies, with a particular focus on the foreign policy dimension of state responses to mass refugee migration.

Ali Balcı, Yıldırım Turan, Tuncay Kardaş ve İsmail Ediz, İmpatorluğun Savaş Kararı: Osmanlı Devleti Birinci Dünya Savaşına Neden Girdi

In “Imparatorlugun Savas Karari”, the authors mainly discuss the reasons why an empire, which was on the verge of disintegration, became involved in a war between the Great Powers of Europe and whose conditions ultimately precipitated the end of that state. In attempting to answer these questions, they explain the decision to go to war in light of neoclassical realist theory rather than stereotypical ideas such as “the only option for the Ottoman Empire was to enter into war” or “Enver Pasha put the Ottoman Empire into war”, which are frequently repeated in the literature. As is understood, previous studies either focus on personal decisions (especially Enver Pasha and his team) and neglect systemic factors or focus on systemic factors (the change in balance of power that happened before World War I in Europe) and neglect the decision-making mechanisms of ruling groups and the way local politics worked. However, the authors of this book take a more complementary approach and attempt to merge the decision-making mechanisms of ruling groups and systemic factors.