Neoclassical Realist Approach Research Articles

A neoclassical realist analysis of the evolving Philippines–India defense partnership in the twenty-first century

ABSTRACT At the beginning of the twenty-first century, the Philippines expanded its defense network throughout Asia given the structural incentives and constraints brought by the dominance of the United States and the rise of China. However, the status of the Philippines-India defense partnership remains a puzzling case. Despite motivating structural conditions since the beginning of the twenty-first century, why has the Philippines only begun to significantly maximize its defense partnership with India in 2016? While dominant theories are unable to address this puzzle, the neoclassical realist approach offers some clarity. This article explains how variations in state leaders’ perceptions in the Philippines delayed Manila’s ability to forge strong defense relations with India despite the presence of favorable structural conditions since the beginning of the twenty-first century.

Do Statist Ideology and State-Sponsored Nationalism Intervene in Pakistan’s China Policy? A Neoclassical Realist Perspective

In its relations with China from 1972 to 2018, Pakistan has endeavored to extract and mobilize its domestic resources while conducting a foreign policy of balancing under systemic pressures and power disparities. Statist ideology and state-sponsored nationalism have been both useful and influential in this process. While there is abundant literature on ideology, nationalism, and Pakistan’s foreign policy using theoretical foundations, a neoclassical realist approach has yet to be made. This paper seeks guidance from neoclassical realist theory as explored in the works of Taliaferro (2006) and Schweller (2004). We argue that Pakistan’s ties with China have been facilitated domestically by an Islamic statist ideology and anti-Indian state-sponsored nationalism. These both have facilitated internal balancing through the extraction and mobilization of natural resources and emulation while externally they justified Pakistan’s balancing efforts aimed at countering a perceived Indian threat. The nation’s military and civil elites therefore agree on the necessity of closer ties with China.

Navigating great power competition: a neoclassical realist view of hedging

Abstract Contrary to predictions that smaller powers will balance against or bandwagon with external threats, Southeast Asian states are hedging by deepening their security cooperation with both the United States and China. Prevailing accounts of hedging do not adequately explain the persistence of such policy choices given growing threat perceptions of China and mounting bipolar pressures. After considering the limitations of existing theories, this article contends that a neoclassical realist approach to hedging better integrates the domestic and international factors that inform decision-makers’ preferences. It operationalizes this theoretical framework in three case studies: Singapore, Vietnam, and the Philippines. A neoclassical realist approach takes the role of individual perceptions and bureaucracies seriously, without dismissing the significance of variables identified by neorealism, including security threats, treaty alliances, and economic benefits. Ultimately, a more complete and accurate understanding of what continues to propel hedging in Southeast Asian states can mitigate the risks of great power conflict.

ABDULLAH BADAWI’S FOREIGN POLICY TOWARDS CHINA: THREE-LEVEL ANALYSIS OF A PRAGMATIC AND IDEALISTIC DIPLOMACY STRATEGY IN A TWO-WAY COOPERATION

During his administration from 2003 to 2009, Abdullah Ahmad Badawi chose to continue the foreign policy of Mahathir Mohamad. However, he also applied a more ‘middle-ground’ approach that was neither provocative nor aggressive. This had on occasion portrayed him as a weak leader, contributing to the loss of majority seats for Barisan Nasional (BN) in the 12th general election. Nonetheless, during his tenure, there was an increase in cooperation between Malaysia and China in the educational and sociocultural fields, as well as cooperation with government-linked companies (GLCs), which had not happened before. How far did the moderate personality of Abdullah provide a significant impact on the structuring of Malaysia’s foreign policy towards China? This research will look at a three-level analysis that was conducted in assessing the foreign policy of Malaysia towards China during the period. The three levels that were analysed were international, national, and personality factors. A neoclassical realist approach was applied to look at the changing international political landscape and its impact on Malaysian foreign policy towards China. This research applied a qualitative method of obtaining primary data through structured interviews with key informants and an analytical method based on chronology—unsupported by empirical evidence from secondary data. In conclusion, the research revealed that Malaysia’s foreign policy towards China during Abdullah Badawi’s administration was a combination of ongoing maturing of relations and an increase in bilateral cooperation which had not been explored before. The research also found that although Abdullah Badawi was seen as a relatively weak leader in domestic politics, he made a significant impact on the continuity of Malaysia’s national interest, particularly in the soft power competition between the USA and China in Southeast Asia.

Taking the Longer View: A Neoclassical Realist Account of Russia’s Neighbourhood Policy

This essay complements the other contributions to this special issue by placing Russia’s neighbourhood policy into a broader temporal and theoretical perspective. It shows that Russia’s political elite during the last three decades has been largely united behind the goal of establishing a Moscow-centred regional security order. Yet, despite this broad-based consensus, Russia’s policy in the former Soviet area has varied markedly across time and space. To account for this pattern, the essay develops and tests a neoclassical realist approach that explains why, how and when major powers such as Russia pursue regional primacy.

Erdoğan and the Muslim Brotherhood: an outside-in approach to Turkish foreign policy in the Middle East

ABSTRACT Amidst multiple foreign policy flip-flops of the Turkish government, the Middle East is where observers agree most about the explanatory priority of ideational factors over realpolitik calculations. The assertive foreign policy activism to extend the country’s role in the region has largely been linked to the Islamist leanings of the ruling Justice and Development Party (AKP). This study revisits Turkey’s Middle East policy with a particular focus on the AKP’s relations with the Muslim Brotherhood (Ikhwan al Muslimin), which marked Turkish foreign policy formulation and implementation in multiple theatres from Yemen to Egypt to Libya. Using a neoclassical realist approach, it argues that the AKP’s ideological ties to the Ikhwan are significant for the availability of new resources but Turkish foreign policy behavior in the Middle East, including relations with the Ikhwan, reflects a grand strategy to respond to systemic and sub-systemic stimuli.

Beyond the Gaiatsu Model: Japan’s Asia-Pacific Policy and Neoclassical Realism

Literature has tended to characterise Japanese foreign policy as primarily reactive to US interests, with many analyses focusing on aspects such as the gaiatsu or US pressure on Tokyo. Some analysts go further and depict Japan as a ‘reactive state’ with a foreign policy characterised as passive, risk-avoiding, ineffective and lacking of assertiveness. Accordingly, changes in Japanese diplomacy occur as a response to international stimuli rather than to domestic needs. However, while outside pressure is crucial in accounting for Japan’s foreign policy, approaches based solely on the gaiatsu/‘reactive state thesis’ fail to provide a full explanation of Japan’s behaviour, particularly in the promotion of regional initiatives. This article studies Japan’s post-Cold War Asian regional policy and shows that its Asia-Pacific strategy cannot be explained as merely a reactive policy with a tendency to concede to US pressure. We aim to fill this gap by adopting a neoclassical realist approach that incorporates gaiatsu and their interplay with intervening variables at the individual and domestic levels. We demonstrate that domestic political actors have played a primary role in defining Tokyo’s Asia-Pacific policy choices and argue that Japan has pursued a relatively independent regional strategy vis-à-vis the USA in the post-Cold War period.

China–Turkey Relations from the Perspective of Neoclassical Realism

There is plenty of studies focusing on China’s global outreach through its Belt and Road Initiative (BRI). In tandem with this, the extensive literature on China depicts it as the next hegemon to succeed in the USA. Along this line, flourishing ties with various Asian nations, including the Middle Eastern countries, as a result of China’s recent foreign policy activism has been addressed extensively. While most research has been stressing the rising assertiveness of China in world politics, only a limited number of studies have touched upon the responses from middle or small powers against China’s ascent. Drawing from neoclassical realism, this article contends two levels of analysis for delineating the interaction between Turkey, a middle power, and China, a rising great power. First, the exchange between Turkey and the USA is vital in determining the cordial relations between Turkey and China. Alteration in the American policy vis-à-vis Turkey in the wake of the Arab Spring is relevant to Turkey’s growing relations with China. Second, is the rising anti-Westernism of foreign policy elites as part of the alteration in the strategic culture of Turkish politics, which makes Turkey’s rapprochement with China possible. Nevertheless, it should be noted that these two levels are intertwined and feed each other. Consequently, employing a neoclassical realist approach, the article argues that the middle powers’ stance against a rising hegemon is conditional upon the bilateral relations with the current hegemon and peculiarities of domestic politics.

Indonesia’s Global Maritime Fulcrum: From Hedging to Underbalancing

This article examines why Indonesia’s vision of the Global Maritime Fulcrum (GMF) was not properly developed in accordance to its strategic response to the increased rivalry between China and the USA in the Asia-Pacific region. Although the GMF initially focussed on achieving domestic agendas, Indonesia’s implicit intention is to utilise the GMF as a hedge in order to strengthen economic cooperation with China while keeping the USA engaged in the region’s security architecture. My article seeks to go beyond the existing literature’s employment of primarily structural realist analysis to understand Indonesia’s strategic behaviour by applying a neoclassical realist approach to Indonesia’s case, which better demonstrates current conditions exhibiting how conflicting elite interests generate political discord which in turn hinders the state’s ability to extract and mobilise domestic resources, ultimately hampering Indonesia’s ability to achieve its GMF goals. Although certain threats and opportunities within the international system have manifested themselves to actively encourage the proper implementation of GMF, this strategy remains underdeveloped since the time of its launch. Neoclassical realism provides a better explanation that enhances our understanding of how Indonesia assesses and responds to its strategic environment.

Hedging in International Relations and Its Implications for China

Hedging is a technical term in finance used to describe a risk-aversion behavior with the objective of reducing investment risks and ensuring a certain degree of profit by simultaneously making two trades in opposite directions. As the rise of China and the relative decline of the United States led to changes in the international system in recent years, hedging is introduced into international relations (IR) and becomes a widely discussed strategy. Scholars on IR utilize hedging to describe risk avoidance observed in many secondary states in a highly uncertain and volatile international context. Academia makes contributions to this point. However, the existing research fails to reach a broad consensus on hedging studies. At present, the debate continues on the definition and measurement of hedging. Moreover, academia is divergent on which analytic approaches should be applied to hedging. System- and unit-level approaches exhibit apparent shortcomings. For this reason, a neoclassical realist approach, which well balances parsimony and explanatory power, is more constructive. Nevertheless, academic outcomes in this regard remain insufficient. In addition, paucity in research that evaluates hedging exists, which leads to the misleading assumption that hedging always works. Academia also overlooks the counteracting force of hedging on regional and international politics. If many secondary states employ hedging as a diplomatic strategy, then conducting an in-depth investigation on the impacts of collective hedging on regional and international politics as an independent variable is imperative. Unfortunately, the majority of scholars on IR neglect this aspect. Through a systematic review of hedging, the current study contends that a broad consensus on hedging studies is an urgent need and highlights that the future research scope lies in taking hedging as an independent variable that influences regional and international relations from an interactive perspective. Moreover, the implications of hedging exceed the theoretical dimension. From the perspective of China, it is of great policy and diplomatic significance. First, Beijing is supposed to adapt to the widely existing hedging employed by its neighbors in Asia. The situation requires China to carefully examine the hedging of secondary states to avoid confusing hedging with balancing, which is likely to upset the regional stability and the balance of power. China is also encouraged to follow a more pragmatic diplomatic paradigm, that is, encourage hedging states to remain neutral and refrain from taking a stance on the Sino-US competition instead of exerting effort to pull these states into its side. Second, China should take the initiative to fine-tune its foreign policies to match the momentum of hedging and aim to understand the domestic logic of hedging. To this end, China should clearly define its core interests, strengthen institutional mechanisms of communication and economic ties with its neighbors, and consolidate bilateral social connections. Foreseeable and stable economic benefits and increased interdependence will help China provide continuous incentives for its neighbors to conduct hedging.

Explaining Italian foreign policy adjustment after Brexit: a Neoclassical realist account

ABSTRACT Drawing on a neoclassical realist approach, this article delves into the impact that Brexit is likely to have on Italian foreign policy. We argue that there are two areas of issue, which are particularly affected by Brexit. Firstly, the Italian relationship with France and Germany. Secondly, the Italian defence policy within the European context. Although Italy has not appeared to have significantly changed its foreign policy course after the British referendum, policymakers in Rome have been concerned by the risks that Brexit entails for the country, and have reacted accordingly. We will observe the variation in governmental interest of three ruling coalitions which have alternated in power since 2016 and, through a neoclassical realist approach, we argue that the Italian response to Brexit has been shaped by both the international pressure to preserve its standing in Europe and the need shared by all governments to keep up to their electoral promises.

Theorizing the Change: A Neoclassical Realist Approach to Turkish Foreign Policy

The Turkish foreign policy (TFP) after the Cold War had been based on traditional institutionalized values. In 2009, the governing party consolidated its power and additionally, the international environment provided more space for decision-makers. As a result, the government seeks to change foreign policy preferences in accordance with its agenda. This article examines this change from a neoclassical realist perspective and argues that due to lack of systemic pressure, Turkey can seek new alignments in the Middle East, rather than overlapping its interests with the West.

DOES THE AGENT MATTER? THE GEOPOLITICAL AGENT IN NEOCLASSICAL GEOPOLITICS

The neoclassical realist approach considers systemic stimuli (independent), and leader images, strategic culture, state-society relations, and domestic institutions (intervening) as the variables of an explanatory model of foreign policy and international outcomes (dependent variable).
 Starting from the central assumptions of Ethology and Classical Élites Theory with the purpose of delimitating the agent – the geopolitical agent or the foreign policy executive – this paper aims to reinforce the importance of the intervening variables geopolitical agent’s perceptions and capacities in shaping the geopolitical design and other foreign policy outcomes. The true core of the paper is to expand the scope of geopolitical studies by including the methodological task of studying the geopolitical agent’s perceptions and capacities. In doing so, the matter directly relates to the analysis of both (i) how the geopolitical agent can perceive the geographical space (Raumsinn), and (ii) what can be the geopolitical agent’s capacities in managing resources assigned to the foreign policy.
 The purpose of the paper is then threefold: (i) conceptual – because it deals with definition of terms and their differentiation, (ii) theoretical – since the paper intends to review the neoclassical realist approach and merge it with geopolitical studies trying to forge a joint approach, and (iii) methodological – as it provides methodological guidelines about the new framework.
 Therefore, the paper brings the innovation of including insights of the neoclassical realist intervening variables into the geopolitical studies’ framework for a more accurate and enhanced scope of geopolitical analysis in the future.

National recognition and power relations between states and sub-state governments in international sport

ABSTRACTThis article offers a theoretical reflection about how the power relations within the international political system configure national recognition in the context of sport. Theoretical developments of soft power are complemented with a neoclassical realist approach, due to the fact that countries shape their sports policies and estimate their potential scope and impact according to their relative capacities in the international scenario.The starting point is that states and sub-state governments pursue the same political goals in international sport: influencing international arena through diplomatic strategies, increasing patriotism and the nation´s international prestige through the organisation of sports mega-events, legitimising their – regional or national – governments through medals and victories, etc. However, only the states are initially legitimised to achieve such goals due to the sports statehood, meaning in this context that International Sports Federations and International Olympic Committee define the term country as an independent state recognised by the international community.Analysing the cases of China–Taiwan and Serbia–Kosovo, the conclusion is that without a consensus between the disputing parties, national recognition in international sport will not depend so much on the development of a soft power strategy, but on the relative capacities of countries to impose their political criterion in the United Nations, the International Olympic Committee and the International Sports Federations.

Saudi Foreign Policy Towards China in the Post-Arab Uprisings Era: A Neo-classical Realist Approach

In light of the unprecedented developments in the Middle East since the Arab uprisings that started at the end of 2010, Saudi Arabia’s international and regional role began to grow. Placing a clear emphasis on its East Asia policy, this Gulf country has improved its relations with Asian powers, particularly China, across a wide range of the interests on its agenda. What are the motivating factors that led the Saudi leadership to closer relations with Beijing? As this year marks the 30th anniversary of the establishment of diplomatic relations between two countries, it is worth examining the growing pace of Sino-Saudi relationship. This paper draws on the ‘neoclassical realist approach’ to explore the evolving nature of Saudi foreign policy towards China since the Arab uprisings to the present with a particular focus on the Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman era. Upon examining the main determinants that could have had an impact on Saudi foreign policy strategy towards China, this review found that Riyadh’s growing attention to Beijing is mainly influenced by a variety of both internal and external factors related to Saudi leadership, regional patterns as well as the international context. While the combination of these factors pushes Saudi Arabia and China towards cooperation, this paper argues that there are other factors that can act as limiting forces on the Sino-Saudi relationship.

Vested interests as a hidden driver of Japan’s remilitarization: the case of BMD deployment through a neoclassical realist approach

Japan’s shift to balancing through the deployment of Ballistic Missile Defence (BMD) in 2003 is not solely accounted for by the structural incentives in conventional realism. Rather, it is because of a dynamic interaction of the structure and domestic politics, which is more nuancedly captured by neoclassical realism. This paper posits that the concept of ‘vested interests’ such as economic ones, and not necessarily leaders’ perception of threat, plays a crucial role as a hidden driver of Japan’s remilitarisation regarding BMD. The existing literature does not accurately capture ‘how’ Japan chose the option of BMD as a means of balancing, ‘why’ Japan shifted to balance and ‘when’ it completes the shift and begins balancing. Therefore, by supplementing the existing realist paradigms, the paper intends to establish a theoretical bridge between structure and foreign policy outcome with unit-level variables, the value of which lie in the level of maintenance of theoretical rigour with strong explanatory power. The paper contributes to the substantive debate on why, when and how Japan’s shift occurred to begin balancing from its previous behaviour, with further contributions to a broader theoretical debate on how a major state responds to a rising power.

Rediscovering the Transition in China’s National Interest: A Neoclassical Realist Approach

Recently, China’s core national interest proposal has drawn significant attention from scholars, triggering a wide range of discussions on this interesting phenomenon. However, the existing literature remains largely limited to single-case studies and has neglected several crucial questions: What is the major difference between China’s national interest and core national interest? What factors may cause a transition from a national interest to a core interest? How can we understand this long-term transition? Based on these questions, this article constructs a neoclassical-based analytical framework to trace that transition, arguing that the major difference between these two concepts is the scope of their application. Meanwhile, the transition in China’s national interest can be categorised as “defensive national interest,” “constructive national interest,” and “adversary core interest” from the beginning of the 1980s to 2017 – with the scope expanded accordingly from the domestic and regional levels to the inter-regional one.

Autonomy and Foreign Policy: the Brazilian Case on the Fight Against Terrorism in the Lula administration

This paper examines Brazilian Foreign Policy during Lula’s administration and how the concept of autonomy has shaped Brazil’s stance on alleged terrorist activities within its borders. By using the Neoclassical Realist approach, this article explores how autonomy has allowed for Brazil to oppose the pressures of the United States’ led Global War on Terror between 2003-2010. Autonomy has worked as an intervening variable that allowed for Brazilian Foreign Policy, to some extent, to take its own direction in matters of security.

Opposite but Compatible Nationalisms: A Neoclassical Realist Approach to the Future of US–China Relations

Opposite but Compatible Nationalisms: A Neoclassical Realist Approach to the Future of US–China Relations

Sino-Russian Relations in Central Asia: Challenges, Concerns and Cooperation

The goal of the paper is to analyze the Sino-Russian relations in Central Asia since the collapse of the Soviet Union. The analysis will briefly touch upon the relations between Beijing and Moscow in general but the focus will remain on their relations in the post-Soviet era in Central Asia. Today, China and Russia are BRICS member states. They are united in opposing US unipolarity and they are among the largest and most populous countries in the world. Their border is over 4.000 km long and they are both veto powers on the United Nations Security Council. However, relations between China and Russia have always been complex. At times they waged wars and had border disputes, only to become close allies shortly after. Period of severe conflicts between 1917 and 1950 was followed by a progressive era of oil exploration, student exchanges and various other partnerships. Their rapprochement ended in 1960 and started again in 2008. But the question is: How long wills the rapprochement last? They currently have many things in common but Central Asia remains a potential area of dispute for both countries. Analyzing some accounts on Chinese investments in Central Asia (e.g. Tiezzi, 2014), it becomes obvious that Beijing is highly unlikely to withdraw from the region in case of Russian pressure. On the other hand, Russia is highly unlikely to continue tolerating the rising Chinese influence in Central Asia, as its role has already been significantly reduced in this region. The pipeline that was supposed to connect Siberia with the Chinese province of Xinjiang has been postponed because Putin believes that it could give China leverage over Russia’s internal, as well as external political processes. Putin’s decision will certainly not stop China’s expansion in Central Asia and the Russian Federation will try to avoid a subordinate position in its former republics. This situation complicates their relationship in Central Asia, especially if growing US investments in the region are taken into account. This is why selecting a single IR theory to analyze the Sino-Russian relations in Central Asia is not a simple task. Considering the current circumstances and initiatives by both countries in their internal affairs, as well as in Central Asia, neoclassical realist approach to Sino-Russian relations might give the best results and it will therefore be applied in this paper.