Neoclassical Realism Research Articles

Philippine hedging strategy from the perspective of neoclassical realism

As the main diplomatic strategy of the Philippines towards China, the hedging strategy has been practiced for a long time. In recent years, with the acceleration of Sino-American Geopolitical Competition, as well as the transfer of power in the Asia Pacific region, Southeast Asian countries are facing new strategic decision-making pressure. From the perspective of neoclassical realism, systemic pressure is transmitted through internal factors within a country, thereby determining diplomatic strategy. For the Philippines, the systemic pressure brought about by the Sino-U.S. competition serves as the independent variable, while the domestic security and economic development needs of the Philippines serve as intervention variables, jointly influencing diplomatic strategy. Through analysis, it can be seen that in the new stage of the Sino-U.S. competition, the hedging strategy of the Philippines has changed. During the Duterte period, the Philippines implemented a friendly strategy towards China of “military proximity to the United States and economic contact with China”. After Marcos Jr. came to power, there was a trend of partial checks and balances in the Philippines’ policy toward China. Overall, it still shows a major country balance orientation and will maintain this characteristic in the short term.

ABDULLAH BADAWI’S FOREIGN POLICY TOWARDS CHINA: THREE-LEVEL ANALYSIS OF A PRAGMATIC AND IDEALISTIC DIPLOMACY STRATEGY IN A TWO-WAY COOPERATION

During his administration from 2003 to 2009, Abdullah Ahmad Badawi chose to continue the foreign policy of Mahathir Mohamad. However, he also applied a more ‘middle-ground’ approach that was neither provocative nor aggressive. This had on occasion portrayed him as a weak leader, contributing to the loss of majority seats for Barisan Nasional (BN) in the 12th general election. Nonetheless, during his tenure, there was an increase in cooperation between Malaysia and China in the educational and sociocultural fields, as well as cooperation with government-linked companies (GLCs), which had not happened before. How far did the moderate personality of Abdullah provide a significant impact on the structuring of Malaysia’s foreign policy towards China? This research will look at a three-level analysis that was conducted in assessing the foreign policy of Malaysia towards China during the period. The three levels that were analysed were international, national, and personality factors. A neoclassical realist approach was applied to look at the changing international political landscape and its impact on Malaysian foreign policy towards China. This research applied a qualitative method of obtaining primary data through structured interviews with key informants and an analytical method based on chronology—unsupported by empirical evidence from secondary data. In conclusion, the research revealed that Malaysia’s foreign policy towards China during Abdullah Badawi’s administration was a combination of ongoing maturing of relations and an increase in bilateral cooperation which had not been explored before. The research also found that although Abdullah Badawi was seen as a relatively weak leader in domestic politics, he made a significant impact on the continuity of Malaysia’s national interest, particularly in the soft power competition between the USA and China in Southeast Asia.

Responses of Bangladesh and Myanmar to the Ukraine Crisis: A Comparative Analysis from a Neo-Classical Realist Perspective

Responses of Bangladesh and Myanmar to the Ukraine Crisis: A Comparative Analysis from a Neo-Classical Realist Perspective

Iran and the Gulf: The Era of Hassan Rouhani

The paper utilizes the theory of neoclassical realism as its theoretical foundation to understand the relations between the Islamic Republic of Iran and countries of the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC). An insight is provided into defining Rouhani’s foreign policy discourse and slogan, primarily towards the GCC, while addressing the significant shifts in the region, which implicated Iran’s Rouhani stance towards the GCC and its members. The paper concludes with how the recent developments of the Iranian elections and Ebrahim Raisi will impact the future of Iran-GCC relations. From an analytical standpoint, it was found that Rouhani had difficulty engaging with the GCC countries due to impediments by the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC). Similarly, the article highlights Rouhani’s era in Iran’s foreign behavior towards the GCC while exploring whether he achieved his foreign ambitions and provided a vision for the significant challenges awaiting the Raisi presidency.

Faktor Domestik Penolakan Italia terhadap Pengungsi dari Afrika Utara tahun 2015-2019

The wave of refugees that was initiated by the Arab Spring phenomenon has increased the number of refugee arrivals in Italy starting in 2015. Refugees from North Africa who use the Central Mediterranean Route to reach mainland Italy pose a new threat to the Italian government related to the refugee crisis that occurred. The anti-refugee stance formed by the Italian government which was implemented through the Closed Port Policy and the Salvini Decree-Law on Immigration is a policy that was formed after the victory of the right-wing party in Italy. Italy's repressive policies, which exclude international law from the 1951 Convention and the European Union's CEAS on the issue of refugees, become an interesting topic to study how the domestic. level has a major influence on the rejection of refugees by the Italian government. In explaining how the role of the domestic level influences foreign policy, the author uses the concept of Neoclassical Realism by Gideon Rose which is supported through a qualitative method approach with data collection techniques in the form of literature studies. Based on the discussion and analysis, there are three points on how the domestic level plays a major role in the policy of rejecting refugees from North Africa. First, the use of the Put Italian First identity as a nationalist spirit generator by Salvini. Second, there is pressure from interest groups and parties to adopt their interests. Third, the anti-refugee factor of Salvini's leadership made the government exclude international law on refugees.

Responses of Bangladesh and Myanmar to the Ukraine Crisis: A Comparative Analysis from a Neo-Classical Realist Perspective

The Ukraine crisis, which began with Russia's military intervention, has violently jolted the modern world. The egregious Russian invasion of Ukraine, on the other hand, has arguably altered the trajectory of the world order. This whiff of war does not exclude any state because all states in the world system are economically, politically, and socially interconnected and dependent on one another. Bangladesh is also feeling the effects of the Ukraine crisis. The crisis has highlighted some challenging aspects of Bangladesh's foreign policy, testing the robustness and independence of its decision-making process regarding United Nations resolutions. Myanmar, like Bangladesh, has appeared befuddled in its response to the crisis. This paper examines how Bangladesh and Myanmar's foreign policy anticipated an unwanted labyrinth by the crisis, which made its moral credibility critical to some extent. Furthermore, the paper discusses how these two countries’ foreign policy trajectories became entangled at a difficult crossroads. We used secondary data sources backed up by scholarly works on Bangladesh and Myanmar foreign policy, relevant books, recent reports, and writings on the subject for this article. This paper also sheds light on Bangladesh's U-Turn in supporting and speaking out in support of the UN resolution on Ukraine's humanitarian crisis.

RUSSIAN FOREIGN POLICY AND THE LIBYAN CRISIS: A NEOCLASSICAL REALIST ASSESSMENT

The processes taking place in the modern international system are both a catalyst and a consequence of the foreign policy of states. As a result of a number of systemic factors and the domestic political situation in Russia, the Middle East plays an important role on the Russian agenda. Moscow is pursuing an active policy towards the Libyan crisis, which resulted in the actual loss of statehood in Libya, which complicates the stabilization of the situation in the country and in the region. The purpose of this article is to analyze the systemic (independent variable) and domestic (intervening unit-level variables) processes that influence the formation of Russia’s foreign policy in relation to the Libyan crisis, within the framework of the neoclassical realist theory. The significance of this study lies in the application of a relatively new theoretical approach (neoclassical realism) to a case study (the Libyan crisis) in the study of Russian foreign policy.

Refugees in host countries: A comparative study between Uyghurs in Turkey and Tibetans in India

The status of refugees in host nations may depend upon several factors, including the economic situation of the receiving state, political alignments, international commitments, ethnic affinities, the domestic refugee regime, security considerations and bilateral ties with the home country. The study aims to discern the role that bilateral ties and domestic considerations play in the refugee experience. Is there a pattern that can be drawn out from these two factors? The article uses neoclassical realist and critical theories to better understand the phenomena, while employing the case study method to make a comparative study. The study analyses how India and Turkey have dealt with refugees belonging to two ethnic minorities of the Republic of China: the Tibetans and the Uyghurs. The results show that the way the receiving states handle refugees depends greatly on domestic considerations. It becomes clear that even though bilateral ties between the host and the home nation are important, no simple deduction can be made on how this affects the treatment of refugees. Both cases provide varied response patterns; it is only through a blend of realpolitik and critical theory that the phenomena can be understood. Mapping refugees and their movements, as well as their status in the host countries, determines many of the policies created for their welfare. The article therefore attempts to provide a framework for a better understanding of the phenomena by considering bilateral ties and domestic considerations.

A neoclassical-realist analysis of Japan’s stance on cross-strait relations

Since 1972, Tokyo has maintained official diplomatic relations with Beijing, while stressing the importance of peace and stability across the Taiwan Strait. Based on governmental documents and decision-makers’ political declarations, this article examines Japan’s approach towards cross-strait relations since the 1990s. It applies the perspective of neoclassical realism by analyzing both the international determinants (independent variables) and the domestic factors (intervening variables) behind Tokyo’s approach to ‘One China’ policy. The article tries to answer the question why successive Japanese governments reacted differently to cross-strait frictions and rapprochement. It is argued that the level of Tokyo’s involvement in the Taiwan problem was dependent both on international and domestic factors. Growing concerns about China’s military buildup, coupled with a gradual demise of pro-Beijing faction in the Liberal Democratic Party, pushed Japan towards containing the People’s Republic of China (PRC) while ameliorating relations with Taipei. As Sino-Japanese relations deteriorated, Tokyo became less inclined to lecture Taiwan against provoking Beijing and more willing to support Taipei’s international initiatives. At the same time, Japan started perceiving cross-strait rapprochement not only as a factor stabilizing the regional security system, but also as a potential threat to national security.

Taking the Longer View: A Neoclassical Realist Account of Russia’s Neighbourhood Policy

This essay complements the other contributions to this special issue by placing Russia’s neighbourhood policy into a broader temporal and theoretical perspective. It shows that Russia’s political elite during the last three decades has been largely united behind the goal of establishing a Moscow-centred regional security order. Yet, despite this broad-based consensus, Russia’s policy in the former Soviet area has varied markedly across time and space. To account for this pattern, the essay develops and tests a neoclassical realist approach that explains why, how and when major powers such as Russia pursue regional primacy.

Power and Narcists – Ideal Types of States Based on Their Sources of National Power, Extraction Capability and Foreign Policy Behaviour

This paper aims at problematizing this distinction between status quo and revisionist/imperialist states by creating a typology of four kind of states: imperialist, status quo, young and old narcist state. The text will proceed in three sections that: 1) problematises the contemporary realist theorising; 2) reconstructs Morgenthau’s notions of sources of national and political power, ideal types of foreign policy and the character of political community and its interest; 3) presents the four ideal types of states. This typology, based on analyticist metatheory and deeply inspired by Hans Morgenthau’s thought, aims at solving problems with neorealist, and neoclassical realist theorising. Based on such non-positivist metatheory, and thus closer to the classical realist roots, it omits the offensive/defensive neorealist assumption about states motivation. By explicitly combining the three historically bound qualities of states –their sources of national power, extraction capability and foreign policy behaviour it transcends the problems with weak causal linkages between state level variables present in neoclassical realism. Hence, it exemplifies the approach to general theory-building that is practically viable for explicitly exerting normative judgement, also from the perspective non great power state actors – the consistent weakness of mainstream, contemporary realist theorising.

THE PERENNIAL DILEMMA OF US FOREIGN POLICY

The endless struggle between two seemingly incompatible but occasionally convergent concepts, namely liberal values and national interests, has determined United States (US) foreign policy and its implementation throughout the nation’s history. Based on the neoclassical realist assumptions shored up by the methodological insights offered by the five-dimensional pre-theory of foreign policy, this article reveals a persistent dichotomy in US foreign policy through the analysis of Washington’s response to the Arab Spring uprisings in Egypt, Libya, and Syria. Throughout history, US foreign policy has had a pendular behavioral pattern, swinging across a policy spectrum ranging from moralpolitik to realpolitik. While the inherent values-interests dilemma lies at the root of the inveterate oscillation of US foreign policy, the interplay of international stimulus and societal factors stands out as the principal source of its ambivalence, if not inconsistency, in the face of the upheavals that swept across the Middle East.

Rwanda’s Military Deployments in Sub-Saharan Africa: A Neoclassical Realist Account

ABSTRACT The Rwanda Defence Force recently staged military operations against insurgents in Mozambique and the Central African Republic. Both actions were performed outside regional or multinational efforts. This makes the contemporary actions of Rwanda outliers in the international relations of Sub-Saharan Africa and heralds shifts in conflict management on the continent. An explanation is found in the application of neoclassical realist theory to the case of Rwanda – a first – as the country’s leaders have taken advantage of a permissive strategic environment, high clarity, leaders’ beliefs and a strategic culture to produce the output of extra-regional military deployments.

The Paradox of Indonesia Cyberspace Policy and Cooperation: Neoclassical Realism Perspective

Cyberspace is a new threat to state security, especially in Indonesia. The increase of internet users in Indonesia is followed by several policies Jakarta takes to adapt to the fast pace of cyberspace challenges. To manage cyberspace in Indonesia, the government has developed ITE Law to regulate Indonesia’s cyberspace and prevent threats coming from within. Moreover, realizing cyberspace offers many opportunities. The government also cooperates with other actors like ASEAN to formulate ASEAN Digital Masterplan to enhance cyberspace contribution toward economic recovery after the COVID-19 pandemic. However, there is a contradiction between ITE Law, especially the Regulation of the Minister of Communication and Informatics No. 5 of 2020, and the cyberspace cooperation that the government tries to impose. These phenomena raise the question of why the Indonesian government takes contradiction policy on cyberspace between domestic and international levels. This research examined the reason behind the paradoxical policy of the Indonesian government’s ITE Law and the ASEAN Digital Masterplan regarding cyberspace policy, especially from 2016 to 2021. A qualitative method was employed to achieve the objective, with disciplined configurative reports and government documents regarding its cyber policy as the data. The data were analyzed using the theory of neoclassical realism to identify the Indonesian government’s cyberspace policy behavior on domestic and international levels. This paradoxical situation between the domestic and international levels of the Indonesian government’s cyberspace policy was created by how the Indonesian government identified threats. The Indonesian government still faced instability at the domestic level to identify the category of threats toward the regime due to the inheritance of the authoritarian regime government model it experienced before. The opposite response at the international level occurred because the socialization and institutionalization in the region have created strategic culture. Accordingly, the strategic culture of cyberspace has restricted the Indonesian government from applying the same idea at the domestic level. The Indonesian government should adapt the popular strategic culture at the international level to ensure prestige.

Rational Origins of Revisionist War

Abstract The rise of China has returned attention to the links between power transitions and war. In this literature, three different causal mechanisms can be confused. This essay disentangles them. Power transitions can lead to three kinds of war: preventive, accidental, and revisionist. Formal models tend to study the first, in which a declining state tries to delay or prevent a rival’s ascent. However, major wars during great power transitions are usually initiated by the rising state, not the declining one. To describe these historical cases, less formal theories, especially neorealism and neoclassical realism, focus on accidental and revisionist wars, but these theories tend to fall back on nonrational mechanisms to connect changing power to the risk of conflict. This leaves a theoretical gap: Why would a rising, rational actor deliberately choose conflict, i.e., start a revisionist war? To suggest an answer, this essay demonstrates how a simple change in standard bargaining models—incorporating a nonzero probability of indecisive war—can ground realist intuitions on rationalist foundations. It further shows how this change leads immediately to an intuitive, formal definition of stability that aligns naturally with existing informal work. Then, contrary to existing realist theory, it shows why the rigorous analysis of realist assumptions leads to a nonmonotonic relationship between the offense/defense balance and war. It thus uses realism to inform and potentially redirect formal scholarship; it also uses formal scholarship to sharpen the logical foundations of realism and, in so doing, derive novel empirical predictions. The essay concludes by applying this synthesis to the rise of China today and indicating directions for deepening the formal/realist synthesis.

Energy Power in Foreign Policy – A Theoretical Approach

This article examines theory of international relations is best suited for the analysis of energy Power in international relations. Findings Realism suggests that energy resources are power included in states foreign policy when states seek to expand influence abroad. Detailed examination of classical realism and neoclassical realism suggests that neoclassical realism allows extend the analysis of energy power role in states foreign policy. Interactions and variables in neoclassical realism suggest the broadest explanations and predictions. Originality/value. The article suggests that realism paradigm theories might provide a useful starting point from a descriptive method in the studies of energy power in foreign policy.

Britain's Trade Liberalization in the 1840s: A Defensive Neoclassical Realist Explanation

AbstractIn the 1840s, Britain engaged in a series of trade liberalizations, with important consequences for itself and the international system. Many have tried to explain the central piece, Repeal of the Corn Laws, using liberal arguments from international political economy. Few find these arguments persuasive. Applying defensive neoclassical realism, I demonstrate how fluctuations in external threats to Britain—in particular posed by France—drove reassessments of trade policy. British leaders judged both the Corn Laws and the Navigation Acts in terms of their contributions to security. Reassessments were also shaped by new information, such as the potato blight in Ireland. While defensive neoclassical realism highlights when a state may seek change to attain greater security, liberalism indicates how strongly constituents may defend existing policies. I use both to explain why tariffs remained popular, but Cabinets overrode protectionism's domestic supporters in this decade.

Mearsheimer, Realism, and the Ukraine War

AbstractThe usefulness of ‘realism’ in explaining Russia’s decision to invade Ukraine has become a keenly contested debate not only in International Relations but in wider public intellectual discourse since the onset of the war in February 2022. At the centre of this debate is the punditry of John J. Mearsheimer, a prominent offensive realist who is a Professor of International Relations at the University of Chicago. This article argues that although Mearsheimer is indeed a realist, his offensive realism is but one of many different realist theories that can forward an explanation of the Ukraine War. Beyond the apparent hegemony of structural realism (the branch of realism to which Mearsheimer’s offensive realism belongs), it is argued that classical and neoclassical realist frameworks can provide more nuanced and, ultimately, convincing arguments as to why Russian President Vladimir Putin decided to invade Ukraine. This is because both classical and neoclassical realism can incorporate insights from non-realist studies—such as the concepts of civilization and ontological security—and combine them into an overarching power politics framework. Although neither classical nor neoclassical realism is flawless in their explanations, they demonstrate that realism does not just have to be about international power structures but can offer multivariate accounts of why a state, like Russia, decided to act, such as invading Ukraine.

La política exterior de la Francia revolucionaria: una aproximación geopolítica desde el realismo neoclásico

The foreign policy of revolutionary France stands out due to its aggressiveness and expansionism. To explain France’s international behavior during the revolution, this article puts forward a geopolitical perspective rooted in neoclassical realism. It discusses the main contributions of this theory and clarifies factors of the second and first images that constitute the analytical framework for this study. Geopolitics provides the spatial perspective to analyze how external pressures shaped France’s domestic sphere in the organization of its internal space and the way they influenced its foreign policy. First, the article presents how the absolute French monarchy organized space and identifies the historical background of the revolution. Next, it deals with the role of the State elites’ perceptions of the international stage based on their experience and how they became aware of the need for critical changes in the domestic realm to successfully compete in the international realm. Finally, it approaches the most notable changes in the space organization implemented by the revolution and how they contributed to strengthening State’s national capabilities to develop an expansionist foreign policy.

Test of Neoclassical Realism to Explain Reasons of U.S. Withdrawal (2021) from Afghanistan

Smithsonian magazine (Jan-Feb) 2019 edition published facts about U.S. military intrusion in 14 countries including Afghanistan, as a consequence of the 9/11, 2001 attacks on its soil. U.S. invasion and its following bleak strategy raise questions on the rationale of this decision because Afghanistan had never been that powerful and capable of posing a security threat to U.S. Foreign invasion and following withdrawal that is pledged to be completed 9/11, 2021 have its specific reasons as well as implications in the region that need to be explored. Hence, the pretext of military invasion on the territory of Afghanistan and maintaining it for two decades is not very strong. However, after this long military presence the U.S. finally decided to withdraw from the state that could be strategically important. Little scholarly work has been done to explain the reasons of withdrawal of superpower from a small country after a long-time presence. South Asia is one of the important regions to study for several reasons firstly considerable size of the region’s population, strategic location, contribution to the productive capacity of the world, and variations in political systems. The theory of neoclassical realism better explains the role of a domestic political system to distort the pursuit of security. It focuses on the behaviour of the United States in deciding on withdrawal. This study addresses a key research question that is, why the United States, being a superpower willingly withdraws its military presence from a much smaller country, Afghanistan that could have a strategic value.