Neo-Deterministic Seismic Hazard Research Articles

Development of new seismic hazard maps of the Philippines using the neo-deterministic seismic hazard assessment approach

Development of new seismic hazard maps of the Philippines using the neo-deterministic seismic hazard assessment approach

Regional seismic risk assessment based on the Unified Scaling Law for Earthquakes: The Lake Baikal railway system

Seismic hazard assessment (SHA) and evaluation of seismic risk (SR) require an adequate understanding of the actual distribution of earthquakes over magnitude, space, and time ranges. Neo-deterministic seismic hazard assessment (NDSHA) methodologies have been developed to improve the reliability and accuracy of reproducible seismic hazard maps. In the last decade, the application of NDSHA in many regions of the world has confirmed the availability of reliable and effective input for mitigating object-oriented earthquake risks NDSHA results have passed intensive testing by historical evidence and realistic modelling of scenario earthquakes. We used two NDSHA tools – (i) Unified Scaling Law for Earthquakes (USLE) and (ii) anisotropic propagation of the seismic effect – to evaluate SR for the Lake Baikal regional railroad system represented by Open Street Map (OSM) data of tracks, bridges and tunnels on the basis of seismic hazard maps of maximum macroseismic intensity expected in 50 years with 10%, 5%, and 1% probability of exceedance. We compare the achieved USLE−based results with the SR evaluations based on the General Seismic Zonation 2016 maps at identical levels of probability of exceedance.

Seismic Rigoletto: Hazards, risks and seismic roulette applications

Neo-Deterministic Seismic Hazard Assessment (NDSHA), dating back to the turn of the Millennium, is the new multi-disciplinary scenario- and physics-based approach for the evaluation of seismic hazard and safety–guaranteeing “prevention rather than cure.” When earthquakes occur, shaking certainly does not depend on sporadic occurrences within the study area, nor on anti-seismic (earthquake-resistant) design parameters scaled otherwise to probabilistic models of earthquake return-period and likelihood — as adopted in the widespread application of the model-driven Probabilistic Seismic Hazard Analysis (PSHA). Therefore, from a policy perspective of prevention, coherent and compatible with the most advanced theories in Earth Science, it is essential that at least the infrastructure installations and public structures are designed so as to resist future strong earthquakes. Evidences and case histories detailed in the newly published book Earthquakes and Sustainable Infrastructure present a new paradigm for Reliable Seismic Hazard Assessment (RSHA) and seismic safety — comprehensively detailing in one volume the ‘state-of-the-art’ scientific knowledge on earthquakes and their related seismic risks, and actions that can be taken to ensure greater safety and sustainability. The book is appropriately dedicated to the centenary of Russian geophysicist Vladimir Keilis-Borok (1921–2013), whose mathematical-geophysical insights have been seminal for the innovative paradigm of Neo-deterministic seismic hazard assessment. This review focuses on Hazards, Risks and Prediction initially discussed in the introductory Chapter 1 — an understanding of which is essential in the applications of the state-of-the-art knowledge presented in the book’s 29 following chapters.

Seismic hazard analysis by neo-deterministic seismic hazard analysis approach (NDSHA) for Kosovo

Abstract It is favorable to re-evaluate the seismic hazard for a given territory, since in the course of time new methods are developed and new data are gathered that can enable more sophisticated (physically sound) and reliable assessment of the seismic hazard. Therefore, it is mandatory to re-evaluate the seismic hazard for Kosovo, considering the seismic sources in Kosovo. The data of this article influence the reduction of seismic risk for the territory of Kosovo.

Finite Rupture Attributes Associated with the Great-Earthquake-Prone Areas (GEPAs) of Continental Earthquakes

Abstract In the neo-deterministic seismic hazard assessment (NDSHA) evaluation, great-earthquake-prone areas (GEPAs) play an important role in defining the ‘controlling earthquakes’ or ‘scenario earthquakes’. When considering great earthquakes, their finite rupture attributes, which contribute to determine the strong ground motions and intensities, have to be taken into account. For continental earthquakes in China, the great earthquakes are located mainly within the boundary zones of the ‘tectonic blocks’. The ‘tectonic block’ model indicates the focal mechanisms and some finite rupture attributes of the great earthquakes within the boundary zones. Accordingly, in the NDSHA for China, it is both necessary and feasible for the GEPAs to consider the finite rupture attributes of great earthquakes. The Sichuan-Yunnan border in southwest China has been taken as an example to naturally develop the originally used circular shape of GEPAs into one with more degrees-of-freedom, better reflecting the possible rupture processes of the considered earthquakes.

Seismic roulette: Hazards and risks

AbstractThe Neo Deterministic Seismic Hazard Assessment (NDSHA) is the innovative multi‐disciplinary scenario‐physics‐based approach for the evaluation of seismic hazard and risks. When an earthquake occurs, the ground shaking does not depend on its likelihood according to the widespread Probabilistic Seismic Hazard Analysis (PSHA), which estimates are too often wrong. An “unlikely” earthquake can occur at any time and, sooner or later, with 100% probability. Therefore, from a perspective of safety, it is essential that infrastructure and public installations are designed so as to resist future strong earthquakes. NDSHA has proven to both reliably and realistically simulate comprehensive sets of hazardous ground motions in many regions worldwide. Today NDSHA is gaining momentum in spreading worldwide an innovative Paradigm of Reliable Seismic Hazard Assessment (RSHA) that should ultimately change mind‐sets of scientific and engineering communities from disbelief in probabilistic forecasting to optimistic challenging issues of neo‐deterministic predictability of Natural Hazards and Risks.

Next-Generation EEW Empowered by NDSHA: From Concept to Implementation

In this paper, we discuss a possible combination of Earthquake Early Warning (EEW) and Neo-deterministic Seismic Hazard Assessment (NDSHA), and propose a new warning model, EEW2.0. The aim is to provide a differentiated warning alert to various end-users based on the results of seismic hazard assessment evaluation. The implementation of such a system contains three basic steps: (a) classification of “potential to cause hazard” in terms of magnitude; (b) determination of the source areas and building a hazard database in terms of Modified Mercalli Intensity (MMI) maps, considering all possible earthquake scenarios in the source area, for the whole protected area; (3) equipping unique decision framework for specific end-users. When a damaging earthquake (M ≥ 5.0) is detected, EEW2.0 quickly matches the prepared MMI map by estimated magnitude and epicenter, then directly extracts the MMI value and issues an early warning to the public. With the great attention and resources put into the reduction in seismic and its secondary risk in the 21st century, the proposed EEW2.0 will likely play an active role in protecting lives and reducing economic losses.

Neo-deterministic seismic hazard assessment of Corsica-Sardinia block

The Corsica-Sardinia lithospheric block is commonly considered as a region of very low seismicity and the scarce reported seismicity for the area has till now precluded the reliable assessment of its seismic hazard. The time-honored assumption has been recently questioned and the historical seismicity of Sardinia has been reevaluated. Even more, several seismogenic nodes capable of M5 + have been recognized in the Corsica-Sardinia block exploiting the morphostructural zonation technique, calibrated to earlier results obtained for the Iberian peninsula, which has structural lithospheric affinities with the Corsica-Sardinia block. All this allows now for the computation of reliable earthquake hazard maps at bedrock conditions exploiting the power of Neo Deterministic Seismic Hazard Assessment (NDSHA) evaluation. NDSHA relies upon the fundamental physics of wave generation and propagation in complex geologic structures and generates realistic time series from which several earthquake ground motion parameters can be readily extracted. NDSHA exploits in an optimized way all the available knowledge about lithospheric mechanical parameters, seismic history, seismogenic zones and nodes. In accordance with continuum mechanics, the tensor nature of earthquake ground motion is preserved computing realistic signals using structural models obtained by tomographic inversion and earthquake source information readily available in literature. The way to this approach has been open by studies focused on continental Italy and Sicily, where the agreement between hazard maps obtained using seismogenic zones, informed by earthquake catalog data, and the maps obtained using only seismogenic nodes are very good.

Neo-deterministic seismic hazard maps of Kosovo

Kosovo is one of the most seismically active regions in Europe, lying within the Alpine-Mediterranean tectonic belt. Historical records for the region show several catastrophic earthquakes with epicentral intensity IX (MCS). However, due to Kosovo’s high population density, high prevalence of traditional construction, and insufficient enforcement of building codes, Kosovo is vulnerable to earthquake damage. In this study, we present earthquake hazard maps for bedrock conditions in Kosovo based on the well-known Neo-deterministic Seismic Hazard Assessment (NDSHA) method. NDSHA relies upon the fundamental physics of wave generation and propagation in complex geologic structures to generate realistic time series, used as input for the computation of several ground motion parameters, integrating the available knowledge of seismic history, seismogenic zones and morphostructural nodes. In accordance with continuum mechanics, the tensor nature of earthquake ground motion is preserved, producing realistic signals using structural models obtained by tomographic inversion and earthquake source information readily available in literature. Our maps are generally consistent with the observed intensity IX (MCS) and suggest that, in some instances, intensity X could be reached.

Seismic hazard maps based on Neo-deterministic Seismic Hazard Assessment for China Seismic Experimental Site and adjacent areas

Many devastating earthquakes inflicted heavy casualties and property losses in the seismically active China Seismic Experimental Site area (CSES: 97.5° ~ 105.5°E, 21° ~ 32°N). We performed a first-order seismic zoning based on Neo-deterministic Seismic Hazard Assessment (NDSHA) in the study area delimited by 94° ~ 108°E and 19° ~ 35°N, containing the South-East margin of the Tibetan Plateau and the Sichuan-Yunnan region. The seismic hazard is expressed by maps of peak ground displacement (PGD), peak ground velocity (PGV) and design ground acceleration (DGA) values, extracted from synthetic seismograms computed at a regional scale and mapped on a regular grid of 0.2° × 0.2° over the study area. For the computation of synthetic seismograms, we considered and updated all the available geophysical-geological-tectonic information, including historical and instrumental earthquake catalogues, seismogenic zones, seismogenic nodes, focal mechanisms, and geophysical structural models. We tested the performance of our assessments with available data (i.e., after the Great Wenchuan (2008, May 12th, Ms = 8.0) and Lushan (2013, April 20th, Ms = 7.0) earthquakes) and verified the negligible influence of large events located “far” from the study area. The results indicate the high seismic hazard of the region, with a particular attention (i.e., where DGA > 0.6 g) to the areas located around the main fault zones, e.g., the Longmenshan, Anninghe and Zemuhe Fault Zones. These first-order NDSHA zoning findings may serve as a knowledge basis to support both large- to mid-range preparedness actions and (multi-scenario) site-specific studies.

NDSHA - The New Paradigm for RSHA - An Updated Review

A New Paradigm (data driven and not like the currently model driven) is needed for Reliable Seismic Hazard Assessment RSHA. Neo-Deterministic Seismic Hazard Assessment (NDSHA) integrates earthquake geology, earthquake science, and particularly earthquake physics to finally achieve a New (and needed) Paradigm for Reliable Seismic Hazard Assessment RSHA.Although observations from many recent destructive earthquakes have all confirmed the validity of NDSHA’s approach and application to earthquake hazard forecasting-nonetheless damaging earthquakes still cannot yet be predicted with a precision requirement consistent with issuing a red alert and evacuation order to protect civil populations. However, intermediate-term (time scale) and middle-range (space scale) predictions of main shocks above a pre-assigned threshold may be properly used for the implementation of low-key preventive safety actions, as recommended by UNESCO in 1997. Furthermore, a proper integration of both seismological and geodetic information has been shown to also reliably contribute to a reduction of the geographic extent of alarms and it therefore defines a New Paradigm for TimeDependent Hazard Scenarios: Intermediate-Term (time scale) and Narrow-Range (space scale) Earthquake Prediction.

NDSHA - The New Paradigm for RSHA - An Updated Review

A New Paradigm (data driven and not like the currently model driven) is needed for Reliable Seismic Hazard Assessment RSHA. Neo-Deterministic Seismic Hazard Assessment (NDSHA) integrates earthquake geology, earthquake science, and particularly earthquake physics to finally achieve a New (and needed) Paradigm for Reliable Seismic Hazard Assessment RSHA.Although observations from many recent destructive earthquakes have all confirmed the validity of NDSHA’s approach and application to earthquake hazard forecasting-nonetheless damaging earthquakes still cannot yet be predicted with a precision requirement consistent with issuing a red alert and evacuation order to protect civil populations. However, intermediate-term (time scale) and middle-range (space scale) predictions of main shocks above a pre-assigned threshold may be properly used for the implementation of low-key preventive safety actions, as recommended by UNESCO in 1997. Furthermore, a proper integration of both seismological and geodetic information has been shown to also reliably contribute to a reduction of the geographic extent of alarms and it therefore defines a New Paradigm for TimeDependent Hazard Scenarios: Intermediate-Term (time scale) and Narrow-Range (space scale) Earthquake Prediction.

Probabilistic seismic hazard map analysis for Aceh Tenggara district and microzonation for Kutacane city

The Aceh Tenggara (Southeast Aceh) District, especially Kutacane, is located along with the main GSF (Great Sumatra Fault) system and the Tripa segment in particular based on seismic hazard map of Indonesia 2017. Therefore, the seismic hazard map needs to be updated based on the recent seismotectonic information and the latest active fault investigations. This paper discusses the updated seismic hazard map for the Aceh Tenggara district. In seismic hazard calculation, input source definition including fault characteristics, subduction zone, and seismicity background. Ground Motion Prediction Equation (GMPE) is used by the Indonesian official seismic hazard map 2017 to compute the hazard curve of strong ground shaking. Probability exceeding 2% and 10% for 50 years is chosen to calculate PGA (Peak Ground Acceleration) map on bedrock. On the other hand, Kutacane is located on a younger alluvium basin in the Holocene epoch thus site sediment amplification effect is taken into account in the microzonation calculations (local scale). The geomorphological slope is used to estimate the Vs30 distribution map. The site amplification is calculated based on PGA value on bedrock and Vs30 value on each site location. The Probabilistic Seismic Hazard Analysis (PSHA) is applied to produce seismic hazard maps as also used since many scientists and engineers in Indonesia although for critical infrastructure Neo-Deterministic Seismic Hazard Analysis (NDSHA) is suggested to be applied. The newly updated seismic hazard map can be used for the reference of infrastructure development in order to reduce the risk of disaster.

The Neo-Deterministic Seismic Hazard map (NDSHA) of Sumatra compared with official 2010 and 2017 derived from PSHA method

Typical seismic hazard problem lies on determination of ground motion characteristics associated with future earthquakes. Strong ground motion characteristics such as Peak Ground Acceleration (PGA) is important information for engineers in order to provide earthquake resistant building. The Indonesian government has provided update of maps of PGA by released a series official PSHA (Probabilistic Seismic Hazard Assessment) maps in 1978, 2002, 2010 and 2017. On the other hand, the NDSHA (Neo-Deterministic Seismic Hazard Assessment) method has been developed and successfully applied to Sumatra. Because of the availability of numerical PGA data for the official PSHA 2010 and 2017, this paper discusses the comparison of PGA between derived from NDSHA and that of official PSHA updated in 2010 and 2017. The spatial resolution of the PGA digital map of PSHA is 0.01 degree and NDSHA is 0.1 degree. Due to the different resolution, a program and a script are developed to incorporate PSHA data into the NDSHA data points by performing interpolation procedure. The comparison results show the PGA of PSHA 2017 is significantly greater than PGA PSHA 2010. However, the PGA values of the 2017 PSHA map are lower than that of PSHA 2010 such as along the Sumatran fault in Central and South Sumatra. The PGA values estimated by using standard NDSHA with 10 Hz cut-off is higher than those of the computed PGA from PSHA at PE (Probability of Exceeding) of 2% in 50 year for official map released in 2010 and 2017. For comparison with PE of 2% in 50 year, the near field NDSHA gives the PGA value greater than that of the PSHA; and for the far field sources. This means the NDSHA calculation for Sumatra gives reasonable results based on the adopted magnitude distance threshold. This is due to the fact that the standard NDSHA is based on the realistic physical simulation of the seismic wave propagation. The comparison between the PGA computed based on the proposed enhanced version of NDSHA and PSHA shows that the updated version gives the same values at near field and lower values at the far sites; whereas the standard one gives a higher value in NDSHA, which in turn gives a higher PGA value for the near and far field sources.

NDSHA: A new paradigm for reliable seismic hazard assessment

A New Paradigm is needed for Reliable Seismic Hazard Assessment RSHA, not only from consideration of (a) the huge human losses experienced in the many recently destructive earthquakes worldwide; but also from (b) theoretical considerations of seismic wave generation and propagation phenomena through often non-homogeneous media within the earth's crust, particularly when large and more complex fault ruptures occur. The Neo-Deterministic Seismic Hazard Assessment (NDSHA) method, proposed some twenty years ago, is found to reliably and realistically simulate the wide suite of earthquake ground motions that may impact civil populations as well as their heritage buildings. The scenario-based NDSHA modeling technique is developed from comprehensive physical knowledge of: (i) the seismic source process; (ii) the propagation of earthquake waves; and (iii) their combined interactions with site effects. Thus, NDSHA effectively accounts for the tensor nature of earthquake ground motions: (a) formally described as the tensor product of the earthquake source functions and the Green's functions of the transmitting (pathway) medium; and (b) more informally described as mathematical arrays of numbers or functions (indices) “that transform according to certain rules under a change of coordinates.” Importantly, NDSHA therefore uses all available information about the spacial distribution of large magnitude earthquake phenomena, including: (a) Maximum Credible Earthquake (MCE) – which is based on seismic history and seismotectonics; and (b) geological and geophysical data. Thus it does not rely on scalar empirical ground motion attenuation models (GMPEs), as these are often both: (a) weakly constrained by available observations; and (b) fundamentally unable to account for the tensor nature of earthquake ground motions.

Seismogenic nodes as a viable alternative to seismogenic zones and observed seismicity for the definition of seismic hazard at regional scale

A fixed increment of magnitude is equivalent to multiply the seismic moment by a factor γEM related to the partial factor γq acting on the seismic moment representing the fault. A comparison is made between the hazard maps obtained with the Neo-Deterministic Seismic Hazard Assessment (NDSHA), using two different approaches: one based on the events magnitude, listed in parametric earthquake catalogues compiled for the study areas, with sources located within the seismogenic zones; the other uses the seismogenic nodes identified by means of pattern recognition techniques applied to morphostructural zonation (MSZ), and increases the reference magnitude by a constant amount tuned by the safety factor γEM.Using γEM=2.0, in most of the territory the two approaches produce totally independent, comparable hazard maps, based on the quite long Italian catalogue. This represents a validation of the seismogenic nodes method and a tuning of the safety factor γEM at about 2.

Realistic Shakemap M6.5 Pidie Jaya Earthquake 7 December 2016 Based on Modal Summation Technique

The shakemap were usually generated based on strong ground motion calculations on attenuation equations of the Ground Motion Prediction Equation (GMPE). However, the GMPE is a general equation which does not take into account the structural model of each layer of the subsurface. It considers only the structure of the surface layer known as Vs30 calculated as amplification in shakemap calculation. In this paper, the realistic calculation of shakemap for Pidie Jaya earthquake of 7 December 2016 with magnitude M6.5 is performed. Shakemap is generated from a number of synthetics seismogram calculations from source to site-based capital calculation summation Technique. Neo Deterministic Seismic Hazard Analysis (NDSHA) has included in the calculation of the synthetics seismograph. Before engaging the Vs30 effect, the realistic shakemap capable of producing effects of the angular distribution of a double-couple model in a realistic calculation. This could give an advantage of realistic shakemap while the GMPE based shakemap had not taken into account the double couple model. The realistic calculation of modal summation technique for shakemap can be further developed by involving local structural models in a more comprehensive manner.

Site effects evaluation in Catania (Italy) by means 0f 1-D numerical analysis

A probabilistic seismic hazard analysis (PSHA) determines the probability rate of exceeding of various levels of ground motion in a specified period of time, in a given area. On the other hand, the neo-deterministic seismic hazard assessment (NDSHA) is based on modeling techniques, developed from physical knowledge of the seismic source process and of the propagation of seismic waves, which can realistically simulate the ground motion due to an earthquake by means of synthetic seismograms. The NDSHA confirms that peak ground acceleration values are larger than those given by the PSHA in areas where large earthquakes are observed and in areas identified as prone to large earthquakes, such as in the case of the city of Catania (Italy). The city of Catania, located on the eastern part of Sicily, is one of the most seismically active areas of Italy. The Val di Noto earthquake of January 11, 1693 is considered one of the biggest earthquakes which occurred in Italy. Site response analyses have been developed for a group of 3 test sites in the city of Catania (Italy). On the sites are localised some strategic buildings to upgrade against seismic risk. The analysis of seismic ground response at the sites was conducted using a numerical method, which is developed in three main phases: the definition of the geometric, geological and geotechnical model of the subsurface, the definition of the seismic input (synthetic or recorded), the choice of one or more computer codes to use and process the results. The reconstruction of the geological and geotechnical model of the subsurface has highlighted a morphology quite irregular especially with regard to the covers. One-dimensional local site response analyses have been performed assuming that all geologic boundaries are horizontal and the response of soil deposits is predominantly caused by waves propagating vertically from the underlying bedrock. Equivalent linear analysis using EERA code has been performed in this study. One of the targets of the paper is the development of measures for the seismic retrofitting of buildings.Seismic retrofitting and/or improving have to be definitely considered a multidisciplinary subject, which depends in fact on many factors, such as: local site effects and the dynamic interaction between the foundation soil and the structure. The accurate investigation on the structure and the surrounding soil is the first fundamental step for a realistic evaluation of the structure seismic performance.

Neo-deterministic seismic hazard assessment for Alborz Region, Iran

Seismic hazard maps for Alborz region (north of Iran) and adjacent areas are prepared using the neo-deterministic seismic hazard assessment (NDSHA) based on the computation of synthetic seismograms at the regional scale. The study area is zoned according to different geophysical structural models delimited at the surface by polygons, used to define the mechanical properties of the source-site paths. We have refined the velocity structures of Iran, as obtained from surface waves tomography, to obtain the velocity structure of Alborz region by applying the joint inversion of the P-wave receiver functions (PRF) and surface wave's dispersion. The input data set consists of attenuation-velocity structural models (representing bedrock conditions), seismogenic zones, focal mechanisms and the catalog of past seismicity. The seismic hazard, expressed in terms of maximum displacement (PGD), maximum velocity (PGV) and design ground acceleration (DGA), is extracted from the synthetic seismograms and mapped on a regular grid of 0.2° × 0.2° over the entire region. The results of this first order NDSHA zoning indicate a high seismic hazard in the Alborz region and may represent an important knowledge basis towards detailed and comprehensive seismic microzonation studies.

Verification Modal Summation Technique for Synthetic and Observation Seismogram for Pidie Jaya Earthquake M6.5

Neo-Deterministic Seismic Hazard Assessment (NDSHA) method is a seismic hazard assessment method that has an advantage on realistic physical simulation of the source, propagation, and geological-geophysical structure. This simulation is capable on generating the synthetics seismograms at the sites that being observed. At the regional NDSHA scale, calculation of the strong ground motion is based on 1D modal summation technique because it is more efficient in computation. In this article, we verify the result of synthetic seismogram calculations with the result of field observations when Pidie Jaya earthquake on 7 December 2016 occurred with the moment magnitude of M6.5. Those data were recorded by broadband seismometers installed by BMKG (Indonesian Agency for Meteorology, Climatology and Geophysics). The result of the synthetic seismogram calculations verifies that some stations well show the suitability with observation while some other stations show the discrepancies with observation results. Based on the results of the observation of some stations, evidently 1D modal summation technique method has been well verified for thin sediment region (near the pre-tertiary basement), but less suitable for thick sediment region. The reason is that the 1D modal summation technique excludes the amplification effect of seismic wave occurring within thick sediment region. So, another approach is needed, e.g., 2D finite difference hybrid method, which is a part of local scale NDSHA method.