Abstract
In this paper, we discuss a possible combination of Earthquake Early Warning (EEW) and Neo-deterministic Seismic Hazard Assessment (NDSHA), and propose a new warning model, EEW2.0. The aim is to provide a differentiated warning alert to various end-users based on the results of seismic hazard assessment evaluation. The implementation of such a system contains three basic steps: (a) classification of “potential to cause hazard” in terms of magnitude; (b) determination of the source areas and building a hazard database in terms of Modified Mercalli Intensity (MMI) maps, considering all possible earthquake scenarios in the source area, for the whole protected area; (3) equipping unique decision framework for specific end-users. When a damaging earthquake (M ≥ 5.0) is detected, EEW2.0 quickly matches the prepared MMI map by estimated magnitude and epicenter, then directly extracts the MMI value and issues an early warning to the public. With the great attention and resources put into the reduction in seismic and its secondary risk in the 21st century, the proposed EEW2.0 will likely play an active role in protecting lives and reducing economic losses.
Highlights
The original concept of Earthquake Early Warning (EEW) was outlined in the year1868 [1], i.e., ringing an alarm bell at the arrival time of an electric signal coming from experiential machinery prearranged at various points from 10 to 100 miles away from SanFrancisco
The core idea of this envision is that the electric signal always travels faster than the seismic wave, a bell could be rung to warn the public to prepare in a timely manner for the arrival of damaging seismic waves
There have been many progresses which may be regarded as “milestones”, e.g., (1) the proposal of regional warning and on-site warning [21], (2) the proposals of new parameters Tauc and Pd [22], (3) the introduction of home seismometers and the crowdsource earthquake early warning [23,24]. Even though it is charged with uncertainties, EEW has been implemented in various infrastructures and is playing an active role, e.g., for transport lines [26], dams [27], buildings [28,29], and expressway [30]
Summary
1868 [1], i.e., ringing an alarm bell at the arrival time of an electric signal coming from experiential machinery prearranged at various points from 10 to 100 miles away from San. There have been many progresses which may be regarded as “milestones”, e.g., (1) the proposal of regional warning and on-site (or site-specific) warning [21], (2) the proposals of new parameters Tauc (τc ) and Pd [22], (3) the introduction of home seismometers and the crowdsource earthquake early warning [23,24] Even though it is charged with uncertainties (e.g., magnitude estimation [25]), EEW has been implemented in various infrastructures and is playing an active role, e.g., for transport lines [26], dams [27], buildings [28,29], and expressway [30]. [31] proposed a Real-time Probabilistic Seismic Hazard Analysis ( called RTPSHA) for the next-generation EEW system, i.e., the use of RTPSHA to quickly perform probabilistic seismic hazard analysis after detection of the earthquake, and accurately issue the warning information to different end-users (e.g., the running trains, the working nuclear power plants, and schools). The approximate location of the Sichuan-Tibet railway is displayed
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