Negative Trend Research Articles

ВПЛИВ ВІЙНИ НА МІЖНАРОДНІ ТРАНСПОРТНІ ПЕРЕВЕЗЕННЯ УКРАЇНИ

The article found that the full-scale war in Ukraine had a strong impact on international transportation. The structure of the volume of cargo transportation and the number of transported passengers were analyzed. It was determined that there is uncertainty in the market of international freight transportation of Ukraine during the studied period. On the one hand, the war had a negative impact on the country's economy and led to a decrease in the volume of cargo transportation. On the other hand, Ukraine is an important transit country through which key logistics routes connecting Europe and Asia pass. It was established that the blocking of air transport and sea trade, with the exception of the "Grain Initiative", led to a radical change in the structure of domestic import/export and the leadership of land corridors. Global transformations in world trade caused by the war in Ukraine also affected the configuration of existing supply chains, Ukrainian exports were completely reoriented towards the EU. It is indicated that Ukraine's signing of an agreement on visa-free transport cooperation with the European Union has opened up new prospects for bilateral international road transport, freeing Ukrainian carriers from the need to obtain permits for flights to EU countries. However, there are also negative trends that affect the growth of transport services and, as a result, decrease the competitiveness of transport companies. A list of legislative and regulatory innovations and organizational measures aimed at improving international transportation is given. It is argued that a successful solution for the recovery of the country will be the integration of the Ukrainian economy into the EU economic system with the help of various European logistics and infrastructure projects. It was determined that the key factors in the normalization of transportation were: the conclusion of the "Grain Initiative" with the UN and Turkey, which allowed to unblock the ports of Great Odesa; signing the Agreement on the Liberalization of Road Freight Transportation with the EU; development of border infrastructure, in particular, increasing the capacity of existing road and railway checkpoints, as well as the opening of new ones; increasing cargo handling in the ports of the Danube port cluster.

Synergistic Potential of Optical and Radar Remote Sensing for Snow Cover Monitoring

This research studies the characteristics of snow-covered area (SCA) from two vastly different sensors: optical (Moderate-Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer, or MODIS, equipped on board the Terra satellite) and radar (Synthetic Aperture Radar (SAR) on-board Sentinel-1 satellites). The focus are the five mountain ranges of the Iberian Peninsula (Cantabrian System, Central System, Iberian Range, Pyrenees, and Sierra Nevada). The MODIS product was selected to identify SCA dynamics in these ranges using the Probability of Snow Cover Presence Index (PSCPI). In addition, we evaluate the potential advantage of the use of SAR remote sensing to complete optical SCA under cloudy conditions. For this purpose, we utilize the Copernicus High-Resolution Snow and Ice SAR Wet Snow (HRS&I SWS) product. The Pyrenees and the Sierra Nevada showed longer-lasting SCA duration and a higher PSCPI throughout the average year. Moreover, we demonstrate that the latitude gradient has a significant influence on the snowline elevation in the Iberian mountains (R2 ≥ 0.84). In the Iberian mountains, a general negative SCA trend is observed due to the recent climate change impacts, with a particularly pronounced decline in the winter months (December and January). Finally, in the Pyrenees, we found that wet snow detection has high potential for the spatial gap-filling of MODIS SCA in spring, contributing above 27% to the total SCA. Notably, the additional SCA provided in winter is also significant. Based on the results obtained in the Pyrenees, we can conclude that implementing techniques that combine SAR and optical satellite sensors for SCA detection may provide valuable additional SCA data for the other Iberian mountains, in which the radar product is not available.

Designing Politics and IR Assessments in the Era of AI: An Empirical Investigation into ChatGPT’s Output Across Bloom’s Revised Taxonomy

AI breakthroughs have sent shockwaves through the HE sector. Reactions have ranged from concern over academic integrity to excitement that large language models (LLM) might allow automating lower-stakes intellectual tasks. This paper tests some of these arguments using a mixed-methods research design to analyze an original dataset of 120 ChatGPT-generated essays on far-right politics based on prompts on different levels of Bloom’s revised taxonomy. Our findings echo results that LLM-generated essays generally achieve solid to good marks. However, we find no linear negative trend between the level on Bloom and the quality of essays produced. Essays’ quality was weaker on the lowest and highest levels of the taxonomy and strongest on intermediate levels, even when controlling for the version of ChatGPT and the round of data collection. The in-depth reading revealed distinctive limitations in argument construction and empirical detail—particularly regarding “hallucinations” and source misattributions—which could only be marginally improved through prompt engineering. In turn, ChatGPT was better at suggesting “places to look” for helpful information, meaning it might be more accurately compared to a signpost rather than a calculator. The implications for politics assessments and teaching are discussed.

The View of Christian Authors on the Practice of Devshirme in the 16th Century Ottoman Empire

The paper examines how various 16th century Christian sources (the vitae of the Balkan martyrs and the notes of Western travelers) reflect one of the cruelest practices of the Ottoman Empire: It is the so-called devshirme or «blood tax» – a system of forced recruitment of Christian boys for their conversion to Islam, upbringing in Turkish culture and subsequent transformation into faithful servants of sultan – soldiers of the Janissary corps or civil servants. Author of the South Slavic vitae of St. George the New of Sophia warns his Christian readers against the dangers of devshirme, as the main character of the vitae even had to leave his native home in order not to become a janissary and to keep his faith. The South Slavic scribe is echoed by the author of the Russian vitae of St. George the New: he conveys a frightening description of devshirme as the most terrible atrocity of the «Hagaren tsars» – for the sake of the sultan’s «honors» Christian children forget their faith and turn into faithful servants of a foreign religion. More detailed descriptions of devshirme are found in the writings left by Western travelers and diplomats who visited the Ottoman empire in the 16th century. They also talk about the horrors of the «blood tax», but more focus on how the Christians of the Ottoman Empire tried to avoid this heavy levy, as well as on the fact that some Christians themselves were ready to give their children to the Ottoman sultans in order to provide them with better social standing in the future. Western authors do not ignore some of the abuses of the Ottoman authorities in collecting the «blood tax» in the second half of the 16th century, that can be explained by negative trends in the development of the Ottoman state in this period. Despite all of this, many European travelers and diplomats talk about the meritocratic approach of the Ottoman authorities to the formation of the state elite, which is partly expressed in devshirme. The Western authors find this approach as one of the main reasons for the success of the 16th-century Ottoman expansion.

Dynamic Analysis of Antibiotic Resistance of Escherichia coli and Staphylococcus aureus Strains in Patients with Urinary Tract Infections in a Specialized Psychiatric Hospital

Urinary tract infection (UTI) is one of the most common infections acquired in psychiatric hospitals. The aim of this study was to analyze the change in antibiotic activity against Escherichia coli and Staphylococcus aureus and their concentrations in patients at a specialized psychiatric hospital, which is necessary for the dynamic analysis of antibiotic resistance and to prevent its future development. The authors retrospectively analyzed 144 outcomes (34 men and 110 women) with an identified UTI, the causative pathogens of which were E. coli (N=82) and a representative of the gram-positive flora, S. aureus (N=62). The results suggest that antibiotic resistance of UTI pathogens may have a negative trend on the prevalence of resistant strains. Ciprofloxacin was the most active antibiotic against UTIs caused by E. coli. S. aureus is more resistant to antibiotics and has a greater predisposition to fixation in the urinary tract due to the creation of biofilms.

The influence of adult urine lead exposure on bone mineral densit: NHANES 2015-2018.

Previous studies have indicated that exposure to heavy metals related to bone health is primarily limited to some common harmful metals, and the impact of lead has not been fully understood. This study aims to explore the relationship between urine lead exposure and bone density. 1,310 adults were included from the NHANES database (2015-2018), and through generalized linear regression analysis and constrained cubic spline models, the association between lead levels and total bone density as well as lumbar spine bone density was explored. The study also examined the impact of combined exposure to lead and cadmium on bone density. Urinary lead levels were significantly negatively correlated with total bone mineral density (β: -0.015; 95%CI: -0.024, -0.007) and lumbar spine bone mineral density (β: -0.019; 95%CI: -0.031, -0.006). Compared to the lowest three quartiles of lead levels, the adjusted odds ratios for T3 changes in total bone mineral density and lumbar spine bone mineral density were 0.974 (95%CI: 0.959, 0.990) and 0.967 (95%CI: 0.943, 0.991), indicating a significant negative trend. Further analysis with constrained cubic spline models revealed a non-linear decreasing relationship between urinary lead and total bone mineral density as well as lumbar spine bone mineral density. Stratified analyses suggested that the relationship between urinary lead levels and bone mineral density might be significantly influenced by age, while gender showed no significant impact on the relationship. Moreover, combined exposure to lead and cadmium was found to be associated with decreased bone mineral density, emphasizing the potential synergistic effects between lead and cadmium on bone health. However, the specific mechanisms of lead and its effects on different populations require further comprehensive research. This study provides valuable insights for further exploration and development of relevant public health policies.

Assessment of climate change effect on environmental flows for macroinvertebrates using an integrated hydrological-hydraulic-habitat modelling

Study regionA short reach of the Jeziorka river and its upstream catchment in central Poland Study focusClimate change is expected to have significant impacts on freshwater ecosystems, particularly on temperate region streams resulting often in changes to spatiotemporal distribution of macroinvertebrate species, as well as losses in richness and aquatic biodiversity due to the loss of suitable habitat. This study aimed to evaluate the impact of climate change on the habitat suitability and environmental flow violations for the filter feeder functional group of macroinvertebrate communities in a temperate lowland river in central Poland. To achieve this, we have successfully integrated hydrological (SWAT+), hydraulic (HEC-RAS 1D and SRH-2D), and habitat (CASiMiR) models. We have forced the model cascade with GCM/RCM projections to determine changes in future habitat conditions for a selected reach of the Jeziorka river. New hydrological insights for the regionFuture habitat conditions may deteriorate, as reflected in overwhelmingly negative trends in the hydraulic habitat suitability (HHS) index. According to the projections, there will be fewer days with the necessary environmental flows for filter feeders in the future. The frequency and duration of environmental flow violations, caused by too low or too high flows, depend on the climate model scenarios and timeframes. Our findings will aid water resource planners in achieving sustainable water resource management and meeting environmental flow requirements in the face of a changing climate.

District wise spatiotemporal analysis of precipitation trend during 1900-2022 in Bihar state, India

Precipitation over a region plays vital role in determining availability of water resource whereas study of spatiotemporal distribution of rainfall helps in managing precipitation associated risks like drought, flood etc. The present study is carried out in the state of Bihar, India using District-wise rainfall data of Bihar for period 1900–2022. Major findings of study indicate that CV and SD of monsoon season and annual rainfall are in a moderate range except for districts Begusarai and Jahanabad; however, CVs for pre-monsoon, winter, and post-monsoon seasons were high for all the districts. Innovative trend analysis of the rainfall indicates either no trend or a negative trend except in few districts, and in recent years the negative trend is observed in almost all the districts. To understand homogeneity in rainfall, the precipitation concentration index and its trend analysis performed through Mann-Kendall test. PCI analysis indicates irregularly distributed annual and uniformly distributed monsoon rainfall. High inhomogeneity in annual rainfall is due to the post-monsoon PCI contribution. PCI trend was found positive in the southern, extreme northern, and central parts of Bihar, whereas extreme west districts of Bihar like Aurangabad, Bhojpur, Buxar, Rohtas, and extreme eastern districts like Purnia, Katihar, Araria, and Supaul had negative trend.

The spatial and temporal variation of the terrestrial water storage anomaly (TWSA) of Iraq for the period 2002-2019 based on GRACE gravity data

This study utilized data from the NASA Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment (GRACE) to examine the variability of the terrestrial water storage anomaly (TWSA) in Iraq between 2002 and 2019. The analysis focused on six grid cells representing the Iraqi territory. The season trend decomposition (SLT) method was used to decompose the signal time series of TWSA to reveal the seasonality, trend, and random noise for the six GRACE blocks. Results proved that Block01 in northwestern side of Iraq, experienced a significant reduction in TWS between 2002 and 2009, followed by a negative linear trend until 2015, and then a positive trend. Block02 which is located in the northeastern part of Iraq showed a decreasing trend in TWS until 2008, after which it had a positive trend. Block03 in the western central side of Iraq reveals a decrease in TWS from 2002 to 2008, followed by a negative linear trend until 2016, and then a positive trend. Block04 in the eastern Mesopotamian plain had a minor increase in TWS until 2006, followed by a substantial decrease until 2016, before stabilizing and showing a positive trend. Block05 in the southwestern side of Iraq demonstrated a continuous decline in TWSA. In contrast, TWS increased in block6 on the southeastern side from 2002 to 2007, then decreased from 2007 to 2009. TWSA levels remained stable from 2009 to 2016, then increased from 2016 to the end of 2019. The seasonal fluctuations in TWS varied across the blocks, but generally, surpluses were observed in winter and spring, while deficits were observed in summer and autumn. The shortage in TWS is attributed to drought and excessive use of groundwater for irrigation. The recent positive trends in TWS in some blocks suggest that the drought may be coming to an end, but further analysis is necessary to reach a definitive conclusion.

Assessment of Hydrometeorological Impacts of Climate Change on Water Bodies in Northern Kazakhstan

This article examines the impact of climate change on the hydrometeorological indicators of some lakes and reservoirs in the Akmola and North Kazakhstan regions. Two meteorological variables’ annual and seasonal trends at three weather stations in 1986–2023 were analyzed. The non-parametric Mann–Kendall and Sen’s slope methods were used to determine the presence of a positive or negative trend in weather data and their statistical significance. Hydrometric indicators were studied using the ArcGIS 10.8 program from 1995 to 2023. The results indicate an increasing average spring air temperature, with an annual rise of 0.08–0.09 °C. A significant trend in increasing average annual precipitation was observed in Saumalkol, with a rise of 4.7 mm per year. In contrast, no significant trends were found in the annual and seasonal precipitation data for Sergeyevka. It was also found that the area of Lake Saumalkol increased by 1.6% due to a rise in annual precipitation. In contrast, the area of Lake Kopa decreased by 6.04% because of an increase in the annual average temperature.

Northern Hemisphere Atmospheric Blocking in CMIP6 Climate Projections using a Hybrid Index

Abstract Atmospheric blocking is quantified by a variety of different blocking indices. Here, the index by Davini et al. (DAV12) is modified to a hybrid index by additionally considering the extent of the blocking anticyclone. Applying both indices, the DAV12 and the hybrid index, to the 20th century reanalyses ERA-20C and the 20CRv3 (hereafter 20CR) ensemble reveals large differences between the reanalyses. The annual blocking frequency increases widespread and significantly in ERA-20C, but only regionally and non-significantly in the 20CR ensemble-mean. Trend analysis reveals a higher reliability of the 20CR ensemble-mean than ERA-20C blocking results. Seasonally, the changes in summer blocking are most pronounced and significantly positive around Greenland. The CMIP6-mean historical climate simulation agrees well in magnitude with 20CR during the period 1900–2014, with some underestimation of blocking frequency in the last decades related to inconsistent trends. For a future climate, the average of the CMIP6 models projects a decrease in blocking frequency in major parts of the Northern Hemisphere in summer and in winter. A CMIP6 sub-set of models which agree best to reanalyses shows a less negative future trend. Because of the mismatch of historical trends, especially in summer, the future projections are uncertain.

Rational cuts? The local impact of closing undersized schools

The availability of public education services can influence residential choices. Therefore, policies aimed at ‘rationalising’ service provision by reducing the number of undersized nodes in the public school network can lead to population decline, especially in spatially isolated areas lacking valid alternatives to the removed services. This paper examines the demographic and income effects of primary school closures by exploiting an Italian education reform that resulted in the contraction of the school network. We assess whether school closures impact households’ residential choices, over and above preexisting negative population trends that motivate school closures. Our findings indicate that municipalities affected by school closures experience significant reductions in population and income. The effect is primarily driven by peripheral municipalities located far away from economic centres and distant from the next available primary school. This evidence indicates that school ‘rationalisation policies’, by fostering depopulation of peripheral areas, have an influence on the spatial distribution of households and income, thus affecting territorial disparities.

Measurement and analysis of ionic leakage profiles in refrigerated human red blood cells using dielectrophoresis and inductively coupled mass spectroscopy.

Human red blood cells (RBCs) undergo ionic leakage through passive diffusion during refrigerated storage, affecting their quality and health. We investigated the dynamics of ionic leakage in human RBCs over a 20-day refrigerated storage period using extracellular ion quantification and dielectrophoresis (DEP). Four type O- human blood donors were examined to assess the relationship between extracellular ion concentrations (Na+, K+, Mg2+, Ca2+, and Fe2+), RBC cytoplasm conductivity, and membrane conductance. A consistent negative correlation between RBC cytoplasm conductivity and membrane conductance, termed the "ionic leakage profile" (ILP), was observed across the 20-day storage period. Specifically, we noted a gradual decline in DEP-measured RBC cytoplasm conductivity alongside an increase in membrane conductance. Further examination of the electrical origins of this ILP using inductively coupled plasma mass spectrometry revealed a relative decrease in extracellular Na+ concentration and an increase in K+ concentration over the storage period. Correlation of these extracellular ion concentrations with DEP-measured RBC electrical properties demonstrated a direct link between changes in the cytoplasmic and membrane domains and the leakage and transport of K+ and Na+ ions across the cell membrane. Our analysis suggests that the inverse correlation between RBC cytoplasm and membrane conductance is primarily driven by the passive diffusion of K+ from the cytoplasm and the concurrent diffusion of Na+ from the extracellular buffer into the membrane, resulting in a conductive reduction in the cytoplasmic domain and a subsequent increase in the membrane. The ILP's consistent negative trend across all donors suggests that it could serve as a metric for quantifying blood bank storage age, predicting the quality and health of refrigerated RBCs.

A multi-docking strategy for robotic LAR and deep pelvic surgery with the Hugo RAS system: experience from a tertiary referral center.

In June 2023, our institution adopted the Medtronic Hugo RAS system for colorectal procedures. This system's independent robotic arms enable personalized docking configurations. This study presents our refined multi-docking strategy for robotic low anterior resection (LAR) and deep pelvic procedures, designed to maximize the Hugo RAS system's potential in rectal surgery, and evaluates the associated learning curve. This retrospective analysis included 31 robotic LAR procedures performed with the Hugo RAS system using our novel multi-docking strategy. Docking times were the primary outcome. The Mann-Kendall test, Spearman's correlation, and cumulative sum (CUSUM) analysis were used to assess the learning curve and efficiency gains associated with the strategy. Docking times showed a significant negative trend (p < 0.01), indicating improved efficiency with experience. CUSUM analysis confirmed a distinct learning curve, with proficiency achieved around the 15th procedure. The median docking time was 6min, comparable to other robotic platforms after proficiency. This study demonstrates the feasibility and effectiveness of a multi-docking strategy in robotic LAR using the Hugo RAS system. Our personalized approach, capitalizing on the system's unique features, resulted in efficient docking times and streamlined surgical workflow. This approach may be particularly beneficial for surgeons transitioning from laparoscopic to robotic surgery, facilitating a smoother adoption of the new technology. Further research is needed to validate the generalizability of these findings across different surgical settings and experience levels.

Assessing the impact of environmental component on the development of Russian banks applying ESG policy

Subject. The article discusses operations of steadily developing Russian banks in the context of environmental component. Objectives. The aim is to identify patterns in functioning of Russian banks, applying ESG policy in their activities, under the influence of environmental factors, to improve the management of their development. Methods. The study employs regression analysis. We selected 26 Russian banks based on ESG ratings, formed an empirical base for 2011–2020 from open sources (financial and economic indicators and macro-level indicators characterizing the environmental impact by the activities of economic entities), built a linear regression model in MS Excel. Results. The constructed regression model helped reveal that the indicator “Recycling and disposal of production and consumption waste in the Russian Federation” has a significant positive impact on the pretax profit of banks applying ESG policy. However, a negative trend in the impact of banks on the environment was identified in terms of connection between the resulting indicator and the indicator “Primary energy intensity level”. This suggests that the internal capacity of banks to implement the environmental component is not sufficiently developed and used. Conclusions. The findings can be used both at the macro and micro level when generating the strategy and tactics for ESG banking development. The offered regression modeling technique can be used to analyze the role of environmental component in the activities of banks in other countries, which implement ESG policy.

Family benefits public spending: Centralization or decentralization?

In order to overcome negative demographic trends in the Russian Federation, measures to stimulate the birth rate have been developed and financed at the federal and sub-federal levels. At the moment, on the one hand, there is a tendency to centralize expenditures for these purposes at the federal level, on the other hand, the coverage of the subjects of the Russian Federation, which introduce sub-federal (subnational) maternity capital (SMC), is expanding. The study was recognized to answer the question: whether the widespread introduction of SMC is justified, whether the effect of its use depends on the level of subsidization of the region and the degree of decentralization of expenditures.

Research on Social Interaction Trends Between Tourists and Children in The Northern Mountain Tourist Areas

Tourism is currently very developed in Vietnam, opening up opportunities to promote culture, sceneries and lives in remote areas to domestic and foreign tourists. Tourists coming to the mountain tourist areas in Northern Vietnam, in addition of the desire to enjoy the majestic and poetic view of the place, also aim to interact with people, especially children, who are said to be innocent and happy. In this research article, the authors studied the current trend of social interactions between tourists and children in northern mountain tourist areas after reviewing the theory of social interaction. In addition, the article also provides assessments and solutions to promote positive trends and limit negative trends of these interactions for authorities and children as well as families and schools in this area

Digitalization issues in the educational system: a philosophical analysis

The development of digitization is bringing changes to the field of education. A new meme related to digitization has started to prevail all over the world and in our country. The advantages of new technologies, which are launched as a result of the development of the digital system, are sufficient. Today, such changes cover almost all spheres of activity, including the sphere of education.The transformation of education not only responds to the challenges of the global process, but also determines its implementation. The issue of convergence and interdependence of digitization of all spheres of society and transforming education is becoming a fundamental scientific task due to special circumstances.Today, in the course of digital education, understanding the essence of the problems faced by the teacher and the student from a theoretical and methodological point of view, taking into account the need to reduce negative trends, is an urgent task of not only theoretical, but also practical importance.Digitization, increasing impact of digital technologies on various aspects of the education system are among the fundamental factors causing changes in modern education. The impact of digitalization on modern education is multifaceted: it expands its development opportunities, and at the same time, new problems arise, which increases the complexity and dynamics of this phenomenon.The purpose of this article is to identify the features and problems of the development of modern education formed under the influence of the digitization process

Білім беру жүйесіндегі цифрландыру мәселелері: философиялық талдау

The development of digitization is bringing changes to the field of education. A new meme related to digitization has started to prevail all over the world and in our country. The advantages of new technologies, which are launched as a result of the development of the digital system, are sufficient. Today, such changes cover almost all spheres of activity, including the sphere of education.The transformation of education not only responds to the challenges of the global process, but also determines its implementation. The issue of convergence and interdependence of digitization of all spheres of society and transforming education is becoming a fundamental scientific task due to special circumstances.Today, in the course of digital education, understanding the essence of the problems faced by the teacher and the student from a theoretical and methodological point of view, taking into account the need to reduce negative trends, is an urgent task of not only theoretical, but also practical importance.Digitization, increasing impact of digital technologies on various aspects of the education system are among the fundamental factors causing changes in modern education. The impact of digitalization on modern education is multifaceted: it expands its development opportunities, and at the same time, new problems arise, which increases the complexity and dynamics of this phenomenon.The purpose of this article is to identify the features and problems of the development of modern education formed under the influence of the digitization process.

State support for employment of rural population in Kazakhstan

Purpose - the problems of employment in rural areas are considered and the ways of their solution are proposed. Methods - economic and statistical method, monographic, systematic, sociological analysis - to determine the indicators and factors of providing jobs - were used in identifying the trends of employment of rural population. Results - the current situation in the labor market was studied, the state programs for the expansion of this segment and the results of their implementation were analyzed. The statistical data of unemployment rate by categories in dynamics are compared: age, gender composition, share of labor-sufficient urban and rural populations. The experience of foreign countries is shown, the approved norms of the number of employees employed in agriculture are presented. Conclusions - to improve the socio-economic infrastructure of rural areas and to improve the quality of life of rural residents it is important to improve the system of subsidizing economic entities. This, in turn, is achievable under the condition of investment of staff units in agricultural production and strengthening social protection of the population. Structural reorganization of the economy has affected the decrease of labor employment in the agrarian sphere, which is one of the criteria of economic development of the republic. Diversification in the agro-industrial complex, support of peasant (farmer) farms and alternative forms of labor relations in rural areas allow to smooth negative trends and receive additional income. The priority direction of labor mobility of rural residents is the expansion of small business. To this end, it is necessary to ease the tax burden on its enterprises, create regional centers for their support, which should direct the available financial and material resources primarily to the implementation of projects and employment programs in rural areas.