Negative Returns Research Articles

The impact of cryptocurrency-related cyberattacks on return, volatility, and trading volume of cryptocurrencies and traditional financial assets

We investigate the impact of cryptocurrency-related cyberattacks on the cryptocurrency market and traditional financial markets. The dataset consists of historical cyberattack data and trading data for twenty cryptocurrencies, three cryptocurrency uncertainty indices, five payment companies, four stock indices, a commodity index, and gold. We find that cyberattacks are associated with negative returns, increased volatility, and increased trading volume not only for the cryptocurrencies but also for the payment companies, the financial and technology sectors, and the general stock market. However, the impact of cyberattacks on cryptocurrencies has been decreasing over time, while the impact on payment companies and the financial sector has been increasing. Moreover, gold prices have shown a positive response to these cyberattacks. These results underscore the need for enhanced cybersecurity measures in the fintech sector and may inform both policymakers and market participants.

Capital Asset Pricing Model (CAPM) Analysis: Technology Sector Stock Conditions Before and During the Pandemic

The COVID-19 pandemic made people more active in saving, such as investing in the capital market. Stocks in the technology sector were excellent stocks because the trading volume increased by up to 7.3 times during the pandemic. The Capital Asset Pricing Model (CAPM) was a model to see the expected rate of return and aimed to assist investors in making investment decisions. CAPM used beta (β) to measure the sensitivity a stock or portfolio is to market movements. Beta indicates the tendency of an asset's return to react to fluctuations in the overall market. This study aimed to look at differences in technology sector stocks in the period before and during the pandemic using the CAPM method and paired t-test. The research using a purposive sampling method. A quantitative descriptive method was used in this study and used secondary data in the form of financial statements of technology sector companies listed on the Indonesia Stock Exchange. Based on the results of the study, seven stocks had an average negative return before the pandemic and positive returns during the pandemic. There was one efficient stock in the pre-pandemic period and six inefficient shares, and seven shares were classified as efficient shares during the pandemic. The results of the paired t-test showed that there was a significant difference between individual returns before and during the pandemic.

Asymmetric TVP-VAR connectedness between highly traded commodities and hedging strategies: Evidence from major contagions

The objective of this study is to examine the return interconnectedness and asymmetric spillover effects in global commodity futures markets, with a focus on the impact of contagion. A competent asymmetric time-varying parameter vector autoregressive (TVP-VAR) model was employed for highly traded commodity futures (cocoa, coffee, corn, cotton, soy, sugar, wheat, and oil) between January 1, 2000, and March 31, 2024. This study investigates the connectedness of commodities in three dimensions: asymmetric spillovers, the influence of oil and oil substitutes on the network, and the impact of major contagions. The average total connectedness index (TCI) indicates that the connectedness is significant throughout the period and increases during the invasion. The findings imply that contagion effects trigger a potential alteration in the structure of the network integration level of the commodities, amplifying system-wide dynamic connectivity due to disurptions caused by oil and oil substitutes. The net plot depicts corn and soy as the net transmitters, with their magnitude increasing during the contagions. The pairwise connectedness index (PCI) revealed that corn-soy, corn‒wheat, and soy-wheat were the primary interactors, while oil became a significant interactor, particularly during the oil crash and the COVID-19 outbreak. Additionally, compared with other contagions, GFC had a potential asymmetric effect on the network. Positive returns dominate the interaction between the primary transmitter and receivers, whereas negative returns do not significantly dominate the total network. These investigations contribute to the literature on the food-fuel nexus in terms of asymmetries and the impact of contagions on the futures market. It also identified the optimal portfolio allocation based on the hedging effectiveness of three portfolio construction strategies.

Under the Hood of Activist Fraud Campaigns: Private Information Quality, Disclosure Incentives, and Stock Lending Dynamics

ABSTRACT Although activist short sellers can play a crucial role in fraud detection, they have come under scrutiny following accusations of systematically disseminating false negative information. We develop a framework delineating the roles of campaign-specific private information quality and short-selling dynamics in shaping disclosure incentives. We predict that the act of disclosure combined with pre-disclosure stock lending dynamics is informative about the quality of an activist’s private information. We find that increased pre-disclosure shorting intensity is associated with more negative post-disclosure returns, adverse media coverage, and consequential campaign outcomes, including auditor turnover, accounting restatements, class-action lawsuits, and performance-related delistings. Furthermore, elevated short-selling costs and risks magnify the association between pre-disclosure shorting intensity and post-disclosure underperformance. Finally, we examine V-shaped reversals and short covering following activists’ disclosures and find no evidence of systematic manipulation. We conclude that activists disclosing fraud allegations under their own names are discouraged from engaging in “short-and-distort” schemes. Data Availability: Data are available from the sources cited in the text. JEL Classifications: G12; G14; G23; M41.

Asymmetric Impact of Russia–Ukraine War on Global Stock Markets

Russia’s invasion of Ukraine on February 24, 2022, emerged as Europe’s most significant military conflict post second world war, with global economic and geopolitical consequences. Using a broad (95-country) sample, the study examines the impact of the Russia–Ukraine war on global stock markets surrounding the war announcement. It applied the event study method and used short and long event windows to examine the war’s immediate and intermediate impacts. Global stock markets delivered negative 1.90% abnormal returns on the day of the war announcement, and Russia saw the biggest fall. However, after the initial adverse reaction, stock markets reacted asymmetrically. Stock markets of the countries in geographic proximity and high trade intensity with Russia and Ukraine, and net importers of energy and food grains negatively reacted more than the rest. The regional results show that Asia Pacific and Europe reported negative returns across event windows. In contrast, the Americas, Africa, and the Middle East did not react negatively, even in the shortest event window. Adverse war reactions moderated over time. Equity investors and portfolio managers who aim to protect their investments should buy stocks in countries that are net exporters of commodities made in war-torn countries and switch to stock markets geographically far from the war zone.

The prospect theory and the idiosyncratic risk-return linkage: a quantile regression approach for Vietnam’s stock market

PurposeThis paper scrutinizes the relationship between idiosyncratic risks and stock returns at different quantiles, especially the extremely low and high ones, to explore the applicability of the Prospect Theory’s rationale in Vietnam’s stock market.Design/methodology/approachThe Prospect Theory demonstrates that investors’ attitudes towards risks can change from risk-seeking in the loss domain to risk-averse in the gain domain. This can be observed by the negative (positive) connection between idiosyncratic risks and returns for the losing (winning) stocks. To explore if the aforesaid patterns occur in Vietnam’s stock market, this paper employs the quantile regression method which is suitable for inspecting the relationship at the high and low tails of the stock returns.FindingsThe estimation results acknowledge the changes in attitudes towards risks as mentioned by the Prospect Theory.Practical implicationsThe negative relationship between idiosyncratic risks and stock returns confirms investors’ risk-seeking behavior in the loss domain, which is in line with the prediction of the Prospect Theory. This behavior may cause worse investment performance as the losing stocks in investors’ portfolios remain overvalued, leading to subsequent negative returns. Therefore, investors should establish and follow their investment disciplines to protect themselves from larger losses.Originality/valueExisting research found little evidence for the Prospect Theory’s rationale in Vietnam’s stock market, which can stem from the usage of the conditional-mean regression methods. Different from the prior studies, this paper is the first to apply the quantile regression method and provide new evidence supporting the Prospect Theory’s rationale in Vietnam’s stock market.

Examining Indonesian Stock Price Movement Amid COVID-19 Pandemic: Which Sectors that Underperformed the Most?

AbstractThe stock market is a financial market that is highly responsive to changes in economic conditions. Therefore, the stock market normally reflects the current economic conditions. This study discusses the effect of the COVID-19 pandemic on the Indonesian stock exchange in several industrial sectors. Using the event study method, this study utilized a time-series data over a five-month period starting from December 2019 to April 2020. To examine the short-run and long-run impact among the observed variables, this study also applied the ARDL (Autoregressive Distributed Lag). The findings showed that the COVID-19 pandemic affected stock performance, particularly in trade, service and investments, and agricultural sectors, all of which experienced a negative return on the day of the first announcement of the COVID-19 positive cases. In addition, the outbreak evidently influenced the cumulative abnormal return in the short run, but not in the long run. Keywords:Stock Market, COVID-19 pandemic, Event Study, ADRL, Cumulative Abnormal Return

Meeting Targets in Competitive Product Markets

ABSTRACTWe show that public banks face negative stock return jumps after missing their earnings per share (EPS) targets, and theoretically and quantitatively link these jumps to bunching behavior in the EPS surprise distribution. Bunching banks cut deposit rates to meet their targets, but do so at the expense of deposit outflows and franchise value losses. Local competitors, including private banks unexposed to capital market pressure, increase deposit rates, compensating depositors for switching. Our results provide new evidence that performance targeting incentives can affect consumer product prices, and suggest that competition may provide a check on public firms' targeting efforts.

Banking market consolidation in Asia: Evidence from acquirers, targets, and rivals

AbstractWe analyse the financial sector consolidation in Asia by using a comprehensive sample of bank M&As from 1995 to 2021. Our results show that M&A announcements by Asian domestic acquirers are associated with significant positive stock price returns to both acquirers and their rivals. In contrast, cross‐border acquirers and their rivals experience negative but insignificant returns, while targets and their rivals record gains, regardless whether it is a domestic or cross‐border transaction. Further analyses reveal that domestic acquirers obtaining larger relative increases in their market share benefit the most, indicating that market power considerations are the primary driver behind acquirers' positive returns. For cross‐border acquirers, neither cultural differences nor regulatory arbitrage considerations can explain return patterns surrounding M&A announcements.

Does Corporate Social Responsibility Create Value in Acquisitions? Evidence from the German Market

This paper examines the impact of a firm’s Corporate Social Responsibility (CSR) level on abnormal stock returns around merger and acquisitions (M&A) announcements. Using a sample of transactions announced by German DAX-listed acquirers from 2017 and 2022, the analysis assesses whether CSR creates value for acquiring firms’ shareholders and offers a comprehensive discussion of potential factors supporting or opposing this notion. Our study seeks to fill a notable gap in the German literature on the relationship between CSR performance and abnormal stock returns surrounding M&A announcements. Building upon prior research findings in the US and in an international sample, our investigation focuses on the German market. Employing event study methodology, our results indicate that M&A transactions of German-listed acquirers did not yield significant negative or positive cumulative abnormal returns for event windows of 3 and 11 days. Furthermore, based on multiple linear regression, no evidence was found that CSR positively or negatively influenced abnormal stock returns following M&A announcements, suggesting that positive and negative effects potentially offset each other. The outcomes of our research have important implications for investors, as CSR initiatives do not serve as a positive trading signal, guaranteeing excess returns, which contrasts findings from previous studies in other developed countries. For managers, it is essential to concentrate on factors beyond CSR performance, such as synergies and fit. Finally, both managers and investors should not view CSR as a shareholder value-enhancing short-term investment but as an integral component of fostering sustainable business development.

Safe haven properties of industrial stocks against ESG in the United States: Portfolio implication for sustainable investments

This study explores the safe haven role of industry sectors classified by the Global Industry Classification Standards (GICS) for global Environmental, Social, and Governance (ESG) stocks in the United States. Our study applies the novel cross-quantilogram and quantile time-frequency connectedness approach for daily time series data from November 2019 to October 2023. Our findings confirm that industry sectors, mainly financials, industrial, communication, information technology, energy, consumer staples, and consumer discretionary, are the safe haven avenues at down, normal, and up market conditions; however, these safe haven avenues vanish for the long-term investment horizon. We also explore the risk spillover patterns for the total time domain and the decomposed spillover level for the short- and long-term spillovers. Our connectedness finding shows that the net transmitters and net receiver patterns are similar for the extreme markets but dramatically change for the normal markets. Finally, based on the portfolio rebalancing strategy, the returns of our portfolio, comprised of industry sectors and the ESG index, outperform the overall market. Moreover, our portfolio yields lower negative returns and a higher Sharpe ratio when compared with the overall market returns. These findings confirm the benefits of diversification by reducing downside portfolio risk. This study is primarily relevant for socially responsible portfolio and risk management investors.

The Impact of Spin-Off Announcement Toward Stock Performance: Evidence from Global Telecommunication Companies

This study aims to give telecommunication companies insight into how markets react toward spin-off announcements as one of the considerations for whether to spin-off or continue to be a vertically integrated telecommunication company. Analysis method is based on a prior study by measuring the announcement effect using event study methodology. The novelty of this study is that the scope is global, and it focuses on spin-off announcements on telecommunication companies. This study shows empirical evidence of the spin-off announcement effect based on a sample of 50 spin-off events from telecommunication companies based in 20 countries spreading over six continents. It shows mixed results between negative and positive Average Abnormal Returns (AAR) around the spin-off events, with the majority of the Average Abnormal Returns (AAR) being negative. It also shows that the Cumulative Average Abnormal Return (CAAR) in the 20 trading days post-event window after spin-off announcement is negative. Recent spin-offs do not exhibit the same significant Cumulative Average Abnormal Return (CAAR) behavior as the past one. The result of this study is also consistent with the semi strong efficient market hypothesis.

How does stock market react to environmental penalty announcements?

Environmental penalty announcement (EPA) has received increasing attention for its potential to convey valuable information and affect capital market performance. Using data on listed companies in China, this paper examines stock market reaction to environmental penalty announcements, the behavior of different types of investors, and the moderating factors of these responses. The findings show that (1) disclosure of EPA by listed companies results in negative abnormal returns, but this negative market reaction is not sustained. (2) Heavy polluters and non-state-owned enterprises are exposed to more negative abnormal returns when they disclose EPA. (3) Environmental reputation can mitigate the negative stock market reaction to EPA, while the participation of green investors will intensify this reaction. (4) Retail investors tend to sell stocks of companies that disclose EPA as media attention increases, while institutional investors increase their shareholding especially in companies that already have high holdings, high ESG scores, and in regions with low levels of green finance development. This paper serves as a reference for governments, firms, and stakeholders on stock market reaction to environmental information disclosures.

ESG resilience in conflictual times

Measuring the market reaction to a series of announcements related to gas rationing, we find that stock returns of firms with high ESG scores are less affected than their peers. Negative abnormal returns caused by the escalation of the Russia–Ukraine conflict are significantly less pronounced for firms with high scores in the environmental pillar of their ESG evaluation. This effect is mainly driven by the efficient usage of natural resources and low carbon emissions. This evidence is robust to different asset-pricing model specifications. Our findings suggest that higher environmental commitment makes companies more resilient to geopolitical shocks affecting the market price of fossil resources. Interestingly, the evidence in favour of ESG resilience mainly comes from countries more dependent on energy import.

Asymmetric Return Connectedness Among Indian Equity Sectors: Insights from Recent Global Disruptions

This article aims to study asymmetric shock transmission among India’s National Stock Exchange sectoral indexes before and amid the COVID-19 crisis and the Russian–Ukraine feud using an asymmetric time-varying parameter vector autoregressive connectedness technique. The daily closing price of equity sector indexes from 1 January 2018 to 31 March 2023 were used. The research reveals strong sectoral return interconnectedness, with negative returns spillover dominating the assessment period. COVID-19 substantially impacted connectedness more than the Russian–Ukraine feud. The sectors such as bank, private bank and financial services were net transmitters of risk, and information technology was the net recipient of risk throughout the assessment period, indicating these sectors are not much affected by these crises. Sector return spillover patterns were similar during the epidemic and the Russian–Ukraine dispute, except for the oil and gas and metal sectors, which shifted roles. These findings suggest that policymakers must recognize and assess the peculiarities of industries that are high-risk transmitters when formulating strategies to prevent market failure or mitigate risk transmission to others. Investors may benefit from recognizing industries that operate as risk transmitters and receivers to create effective risk-mitigation investment strategies amid turbulent times.

Giao dịch của người nội bộ và những ảnh hưởng lên giá cổ phiếu tại Việt Nam

The paper examines the effect of insider trading on stock prices of non-financial companies listed on the Vietnam stock market in the period of 2010-2019. Using event study methodology, the empirical results show that there are abnormal returns surrounding announcements of trading activities of insiders in Vietnam. More specifically, there are positive abnormal returns when buying announcements of insiders and there are negative abnormal returns when selling announcements of insiders. In addition, the study also shows factors affecting positively the abnormal returns around announcements of insider trading events, such as dividend per share, return on assets, insiders who are member of the Board of Directors and the number of insider trading stocks.

ESG, clean energy, and petroleum futures markets: Asymmetric return connectedness and hedging effectiveness

This study investigates the asymmetric return connectedness and portfolio implications among environmental, social and governance (ESG) exchange-traded funds (ETFs), clean energy ETFs, and five petroleum futures markets from December 2016 to December 2022. To this end, it uses an asymmetric time-varying approach of connectedness and constructs portfolios using minimum variance portfolio (MVP), minimum correlation portfolio (MCP), and minimum connectedness portfolio (MCoP). The results show that negative return connectedness is stronger than positive ones across most of the sample period, especially around the peak of the COVID-19 pandemic. The dynamic of net connectedness between markets is altered by the pandemic. ESG ETFs are more connected to petroleum futures markets than clean energy ETFs. The connectedness is strong during the COVID-19 outbreak, which suggests the instability of the system of return connectedness during the global health crisis. The minimum connectedness portfolio approach reflects the asymmetric and non-asymmetric return connectedness more than other portfolio approaches. Notably, clean energy and ESG ETF exhibit a safe-haven property under both symmetry and asymmetry in return connectedness. The findings are insightful from investment and policy perspectives.

Effects of customer unionization on supplier relationships and supplier value

This study examines whether suppliers modify trading strategies upon their customers’ unionization. The study demonstrates that when customers unionize, suppliers experience negative stock returns and rely less on the unionized customers for sales. Results are robust for alternatively using a regression discontinuity design. Suppliers reduce their exposure to unionized customers due to the demand uncertainty arising from potential labor disruptions, the customers’ reduced competitiveness in the product market, and customers’ potential shifting of unionization costs to suppliers. Furthermore, suppliers with unionized customers mitigate risks by seeking new customers and diversifying their customer concentration.

PROFITABILITY CALCULATION AND ANALYSIS FOR INTEREST RATE SWAP USING THE HULL WHITE MODEL

The London Inter-Bank Offered Rate (LIBOR) volatility had resulted in higher interest rate risks faced by many big companies and financial institutions whose assets depend on the interest rate. Eventually, there was an appearance of the new financial product development that can be used for hedging, such as interest rate swap, one of the most popular methods, utilized by most financial institutions and big companies which use LIBOR as their benchmark. In fact, it is not uncommon for numerous companies to gain negative return from this swap transaction. Therefore, in this paper, we used the Hull-White model to predict the LIBOR rate, since this model has a decent level of accuracy, calculated using Root Mean Squared Error (RMSE) method. Furthermore, the estimation of LIBOR rate was used to calculate the net value of interest rate swap transaction, in three scenarios, using, respectively, the minimum value, the average value, and the maximum value of the LIBOR’s estimation results to provide an analysis of potential P/L (Profit & Loss) exposure due to the realization of interest rate swaps.

On the robust drivers of cryptocurrency liquidity: the case of Bitcoin

This study aims to identify the factors that robustly contribute to Bitcoin liquidity, employing a rich range of potential determinants that represent unique characteristics of the cryptocurrency industry, investor attention, macroeconomic fundamentals, and global stress and uncertainty. To construct liquidity metrics, we compile 60-min high-frequency data on the low, high, opening, and closing exchange rates of Bitcoin against the US dollar. Our empirical investigation is based on the extreme bounds analysis (EBA), which can resolve model uncertainty issues. The results of Leamer’s version of the EBA suggest that the realized volatility of Bitcoin is the sole variable relevant to explaining liquidity. With the Sala-i-Martin’s variant of EBA, however, four more variables, (viz. Bitcoin’s negative returns, trading volume, hash rates, and Google search volume) are also labeled as robust determinants. Accordingly, our evidence confirms that Bitcoin-specific factors and developments, rather than global macroeconomic and financial variables, matter for explaining its liquidity. The findings are largely insensitive to our proxy of liquidity and to the estimation method used.