Negative Interest Rates Research Articles

A Tiering Rule to Balance the Impact of Negative Policy Rates on Banks

Negative interest rate policy makes excess liquidity costly to hold for banks and this may weaken the bank-based transmission of monetary policy. We design a rule-based tiering system for excess reserve remuneration that reduces the burden of negative rates on banks while ensuring that the central bank keeps control of interbank interest rates. Using euro-area data, we show that under the proposed tiering system, the cost of holding excess liquidity when the COVID-19 monetary stimulus fully unfolds would be more than 30% lower than that under the ECB's current system.

PECULIARITIES OF UNCONVENTIONAL MONETARY POLICY APPLICATION IN PERIODS OF EXACERBATION OF MACROECONOMIC INSTABILITY

The article examines the essence and macroeconomic conditions of unconventional monetary policy tools application, and substantiates the reasons for their use over the past two decades. The factors that have led to the global trend of declining interest rates are summarized and the specifics of the monetary transmission mechanism of the negative interest rates are investigated. It has been found that the implementation of quantitative easing programs often leads to a change in the yield curve. Declining yields on long-term securities has a stimulating effect on the real sector of the economy. Based on the comparative empirical analysis and an econometric assessment of quantitative easing programs in the United States and Japan, the conclusion about their effectiveness in overcoming stagnation has been made. According to the authors, an objective assessment of the effectiveness of quantitative easing policy should involve the applying of multivariate analysis, which takes into account the influence of other factors on economic growth and on the financial asset yields. Theoretical and empirical analysis of the mechanism of unconventional monetary policy allowed to draw conclusions about possible negative consequences, in particular, the devaluation of the domestic currency, capital outflows, deepening income differentiation, rising inflation, "blurring" the line between fiscal and monetary policy, which negatively affects the level central bank independency etc. The experience of unconventional monetary policies applying in developing countries in times of the crisis caused by the spread of COVID 19 is summarized. It is concluded that the feasibility of such monetary policy instruments depends on the potential of the monetary policy instrument of lowering interest rates for stimulating the real economy, as well as on indicators of the certain macroeconomic environment, in particular - inflation, debt sustainability, adequacy of gold and foreign currencies reserves and etc. Proposals on the expediency of the National Bank of Ukraine application of unconventional monetary policy instruments in the current macroeconomic circumstances was formulated. Keywords : macroeconomic environment, unconventional monetary policy, quantitative easing, negative interest rates, deflation, forward guidance policy, yield curve, interest rate swap.

A Simple Model of Interbank Trading with Tiered Remuneration

A negative interest rate policy is often accompanied by tiered remuneration, which allows exemption from negative rates. This study proposes a basic model of interest rates in an interbank market with a tiering system. The results largely mirror actual market developments in late 2019, when the European Central Bank introduced the tiering system and the Switzerland National Bank modified it.

Modelos de la estructura de plazos de las tasas de interés: Revisión, tendencias y perspectivas

El trabajo proporciona una descripción general de los modelos de estructuras de plazos de las tasas de interés. Se trata de un planteamiento técnico de la teoría del comportamiento libre de arbitraje de tasas de interés de distintos vencimientos. Los modelos de tasa corta están ganando relevancia en la actualidad por su capacidad para describir y explicar la existencia de tasas de interés negativas como se ha observado en Europa y Asia. Las condiciones económicas actuales, en un entorno de incertidumbre generado por una recesión económica global, afectan el comportamiento de las tasas de interés, lo cual invita a realizar una revisión más cuidadosa de los factores que influyen en la dinámica de las mismas. Este artículo tiene como objetivo revisar las tendencias y perspectivas de los modelos de estructuras de plazos y destaca algunas áreas para futuras investigaciones.

The value added of the Bank of Japan's range forecasts

AbstractThis study investigates whether the Bank of Japan's (BOJ's) interval forecast publications have an added value relative to its point forecast publications by focusing on the range forecasts released by its policy board members. We find that the width of the BOJ's range forecasts has additional information for predicting inflation over point forecasts for the policy decision periods of 12–18 months. The predictive power of the range forecast is robust to the state of the economy, the recently introduced negative interest rate policy, and economic uncertainty measures. Furthermore, both the point and range forecasts influence professional forecasts. Our findings suggest that the source of the central bank's influence is closely related to its information content, not to forecasting accuracy. Therefore, range forecasts are important tools for monetary policy communication.

Asymmetric volatility connectedness among main international stock markets: A high frequency analysis

This paper examines the direction and extent of the asymmetric volatility connectedness among international equity markets using 5-minute interval data from 16 stock markets. We analyze asymmetric volatility connectedness using realized volatility and identify the magnitude of the volatility spillover and of the connectedness through networks. We decompose realized volatility into good and bad, and volatility spillover is time-varying and asymmetric. Bad volatility dominates good volatility in international stock markets. Macroeconomic shocks (negative interest rates in Japan, economic stress in China, a recession in Russia, and double-digit inflation in Brazil) increased volatility asymmetry. Asian markets are responsible for stronger negative spillover, thereby necessitating regulations to reduce the strong negative volatility connectedness with Asian markets.

Critical analysis of the most widespread methodologies for the simulation of the short rate dynamics under extreme market conditions

This study proposes an analysis of the main drawbacks emerged when adopting the traditional short rate dynamics under extreme market conditions such as under negative interest rates. In fact, this condition has led to invalidate the use of the majority of the most popular stochastic differential equations (SDE) reported in the scientific literature. The first part of the paper makes an overall introduction to the problem, analyzing it from different perspectives. Given that the author dealt with these topics in previous research items, the objective of the paper is to focus on only one of these aspects which was not scrutinized before and to examine it in full detail. As a result, the most popular stochastic dynamics are shown in the second part and the problems raised by their numerical integration are then discussed. Starting from the equations for which it is feasible to implement a numerical scheme for their solution, the problem thus becomes how to find a reasonable estimation for the SDE parameters. The third section deals with the problems occurred in the application of Maximum Likelihood Estimation (MLE) caused by the negative interest rates during the implementation of the well-established approaches. For every analyzed dynamics a real market case is provided. The paper highlights the appropriateness of the Hull-White model which can be considered a feasible and reliable solution for simulating short rates also under extreme market conditions.

Passing on negative interest rates

Abstract Since the ECB has lowered the interest rate on deposits into negative territory, more and more commercial banks are also passing on this negative interest rate to their customers. The main aim of this paper is to answer the question under which conditions the commercial banking sector will be more or less reluctant to pass the negative deposit rate on to its private customers. We first clarify the circumstances under which demand deposits and excess liquidity arise, and what role quantitative easing plays in this context. Within a game-theoretical framework, it is derived that the pressure to pass on the negative interest rate is particularly high if there are no switching costs, and the banking market follows a Bertrand competition.

News - Comment. Money & Markets. Finance - Could we be heading for negative interest rates?

Governments have always used interest rates as a crude lever to influence the economy, but in these times of Covid-19 that bit of financial engineering no longer works.

The effects of negative interest rates on cash usage: Evidence for EU countries

Changes in interest rates below the zero lower bound could have potential effects on the payments market by making cash more attractive for consumers as a medium of payment and wealth storage. This paper studies how cash usage has been affected by the recent introduction of negative interest rates in European countries. Using a difference-in-differences methodology over the period 2006–2018, results show an increase in cash usage in negative interest-rate environments. We also find that the increase in cash usage was less pronounced in countries with superior monitoring capacity of banks (i.e. high levels of financial intermediation).

Money, Growth, and Welfare in a Schumpeterian Model with the Spirit of Capitalism

According to Schumpeter (1934), entrepreneurs are driven to innovate not only for the fruits of success but for success itself. This description of entrepreneurship echoes Weber’s (1958) description of the “spirit of capitalism,” which states that people enjoy the accumulation of wealth irrespective of its effect on smoothing consumption. This paper explores the implications of the spirit of capitalism on monetary policy, growth, and welfare in a Schumpeterian growth model. Different from the existing literature, we show that money is not superneutral in the long run and could promote economic growth when the spirit of capitalism is strong. Furthermore, we show that the optimal nominal interest rate decreases with the strength of the spirit of capitalism, potentially supporting a negative interest rate. Finally, our calibrated model suggests that the spirit of capitalism explains an important share (about one-third) of long-run growth in the United States.

Negative Interest Rate Policy to Fight Secular Stagnation: Unfeasible, Ineffective, Irrelevant, or Inadequate?

ABSTRACT This paper discusses three explanations for Secular Stagnation: Summers’s demand-side Secular Stagnation Theory, Palley’s Investment Saturation Hypothesis, and Gordon’s supply-side Secular Stagnation Theory. All three involve a judgement on the efficacy of a negative interest rate policy (NIRP) in tackling stagnation: according to the first it is unfeasible, according to the second it is ineffective (and even dangerous), and according to the third it is irrelevant. First, we argue that these theories face the fundamental difficulty constituted by the use of a (negative) natural (or equilibrium) rate of interest. We propose an original critique of the negative equilibrium rate of interest determined by the marginal efficiency of capital. Second, we claim that the negative interest rate policy is an inadequate tool to fight stagnation. While monitoring and fostering financial stability should be a fundamental role of monetary authorities, monetary policy is unable to stimulate growth, whereas fiscal policy is better suited to the task.

Micro-level transmission of monetary policy shocks: The trading book channel.

We open the black box of the monetary policy transmission mechanism with a granular model that considers the balance-sheet composition and network relationships of each economic agent. Though there are several well-documented channels through which monetary policy operates, we focus on the overlooked trading book channel, which arises because of adjustments in the accounting value of trading book exposures on banks’ balance sheets that have to be marked to market when interest rates change. Variations in banks’ net worth due these adjustments are used as input to a network model that incorporates the financial and corporate sectors. The framework permits us to determine the effects of interest rate changes on every bank and firm in the economy and any second-round (contagion) effects in the short run. We apply the model to a comprehensive database of Brazilian banks and firms from 2015 to 2020. We find that interest rate shocks affect more strongly financial stability in periods of monetary policy tightening. We also find notable asymmetric effects of positive and negative interest rate shocks in the Brazilian economy, with positive interest rate shocks affecting more financial stability. Finally, our results also suggest a non-linear relationship between interest rate changes and financial stability, reinforcing the need to mitigate monetary policy shocks through interest rate smoothing and adequate communication and transparency to society.

Forecasting negative yield‐curve distributions

AbstractNegative interest rates have been present in various marketplaces since mid‐2014, following the negative interest rate policy (NIRP) adopted by the European Central Bank to raise economic growth. The well‐known historical approach (HA) appears to be a good resource. By tweaking the HA, we derive a very tractable data‐driven tool that allows practitioners to generate yield‐curve distributions at future discrete time horizons. We thereby provide a robust and easy‐to‐understand forecasting model, suitable for the NIRP context, allowing an appreciation of its predictive power. Besides the methodological development herein, various numerical illustrations are presented to shed light on the benefits (and limitations) of this forecasting approach.

INTERBANK CREDIT RISK MODELING WITH SELF-EXCITING JUMP PROCESSES

The credit crunch of 2007 caused major changes in the market of interbank rates making the existing interest rate theory inconsistent. This paper puts forward one way to reconcile practice and theory by modifying the arbitrage-free condition. In this framework, the forward Libor rate is no longer considered as a risk-free rate and the credit and liquidity risks within the interbank market partly drive its dynamics. In a similar manner to the multiple-curve approach, we model the evolution of default-free rates, assimilated to overnight interest swap rates, and the default times of an interbank market segment determined by its tenor. For each segment, we use the reduced form approach to model the arrival rate of defaults with a self-exciting jump-diffusion process. Then, we deduce the dynamics of the spot forward Libor rates and provide closed-form approximation pricing formulae for options on forward Libor rates and swap rates. Even in a context of negative interest rates and compared to other forms of intensity processes such as a CIR, the self-excitation property allows a better understanding of the spread OIS-IRS and provides information about the interbank credit risk. Furthermore, our framework enables to parse the impact of the interbank credit risk on forward Libor as well as on interest rates derivatives like caps, floors, and swaptions.

Negative interest rates as a monetary policy tool

Subject. We consider the application of negative interest rates by central banks of various countries, as a monetary policy tool. Objectives. We focus on reviewing the historical retrospect, potential risks, as well as positive and negative aspects of using negative interest rate instruments by developed countries. Methods. The study rests on the logical, systems, functional, and situational analysis, methods of grouping, and the monographic survey. Results. The use of negative interest rates as a monetary policy tool by financial regulators in various countries is a least-evil solution, which is aimed at improving the economy after the global economic crisis of 2008–2010. At present, positive and negative factors of the tools' impact on the financial sphere have been identified. In particular, the advantage is a balance between inflation and deflation, as the latter leads to a reduction in aggregate demand, an increase in unemployment, a fall in asset prices, and a slowdown in economic growth. The banking sector bears the risks of negative margin from operations involving fund-raising. The use of negative interest rates is possible, if other measures aimed at boosting economic growth are applied simultaneously. Conclusions. The findings can be used to investigate the negative interest rate instrument and evaluate its effectiveness. They can be helpful for financial market specialists.

The $19,000 Question: How Will the Economic Consequences of the Coronavirus Pandemic Affect the Financial System?

The deep recession expected as a result of the COVID-19 pandemic will leave both governments and private-sector companies with a greatly increased debt burden. That will have severe consequences for the financial system. Banks will suffer large-scale defaults on business and personal lending. To work off the debt overhang, interest rates may be held down by central banks for a long period. Inflation may rise, which would deflate the real value of debt, but inflationary pressures are currently weak. Financial repression will add to the pressures on banks and other financial institutions. Major banks enter the crisis period with high capital ratios, but expected losses on loan portfolios will put some under strain. Less strongly capitalized new entrants may suffer disproportionately. Other likely changes are more rapid growth in digital financial services and a decline in cash usage. Central banks will probably issue their own digital currencies, which will make maintaining negative interest rates more achievable. At the same time, the international financial system will be put under strain by global tensions generated by the crisis. In this complex environment, it will be crucial for governments, central banks, and the banking system to collaborate closely and for the European Union to bolster the eurozone with long-planned but long-delayed reforms, in particular to promote a capital markets union that could relieve pressure on banks’ balance sheets.

The impact of unconventional monetary policy in the euro area. Structural and scenario analysis from a Bayesian VAR

AbstractThis paper employs a medium scale Bayesian VAR model to provide a rich picture of the transmission of unconventional monetary policy (UMP) shocks in various dimensions of the economy, and to shed light on the appropriate policy mix that the central bank could adopt to fulfil its price stability mandate. We show that UMP shocks have a significant positive impact on both economic activity and inflation; stem financial market stress episodes and boost economic sentiment. Additionally, several channels seem to have been activated, including the exchange rate, inflation expectations and the bank lending channel. Counterfactual policy analysis suggests that a policy mix that combines the use of permanently negative interest rates with a balance sheet expansion at a steady pace over a long period, could bring inflation closer to the target. Alternative policy scenarios that, either give more weight on the purchases during the first months or, terminate asset purchases too early, would fail to keep inflation on track to meet its target.

Issues Regarding the Use of the Policy Rate Tool

We review two nonstandard uses of the policy rate tool, which provide additional stimulus when interest rates are close to or at the effective lower bound—forward guidance and negative interest rate policy. In particular, we survey the use of these tools since the start of the Great Recession, review evidence of their effectiveness, and discuss key considerations that confront monetary policymakers while using them.

How Would US Banks Fare in a Negative Interest Rate Environment?

The effectiveness of negative interest rates as a monetary policy tool depends importantly on the response of the banking sector. This paper offers unique new insights for U.S. banks by using supervisory data to examine bank-level expectations regarding the impact of negative rates on profitability through net interest margins. The main results show that the largest U.S. banks differ significantly in how they respond to negative interest rates. The most significant channel of adverse exposure comes from the pass-through of the negative policy rate to interest rates on short-term liquid assets held on the balance sheet. At the same time, on the liability side, banks that rely more heavily on short-term wholesale funding, including financing through the repo market, may benefit through a reduction in funding costs. In the aggregate, these effects likely wash out as liquidity provision is sufficiently well diversified across the banking sector as a whole.