Negative Interest Rate Environment Research Articles

Asset–Liability Management of Life Insurers in the Negative Interest Rate Environment

This study investigates the asset–liability management (ALM) of life insurers in markets with negative interest rates. Using a sample of Japanese life insurers between 2000 and 2020, we provide initial evidence that the negative interest rate environment produces a much more serious consequence on insurers than the positive interest rate environment. Given that duration and convexity are two common measures widely used by insurers to manage their assets and liabilities, we highlight that the assumption of a flat yield curve underlying the traditional measures (e.g., the Macaulay and modified durations and convexities) is problematic when interest rates turn negative. To address this issue, we propose an ALM framework using the duration and convexity based on the Vasicek stochastic model. Results show that the strategy based on the Vasicek model outperforms the strategy using the modified duration and convexity in the negative interest rate environment.

Asymmetric short-rate model without lower bound

We propose a new short-rate process which appropriately captures the salient features of the negative interest rate environment. The model combines the advantages of the Vasicek and Cox–Ingersoll–Ross (CIR) dynamics: it is flexible, tractable and displays positive skewness without imposing a strict lower bound. In addition, a novel calibration procedure is introduced which focuses on minimizing the Jensen–Shannon (JS) divergence between the model- and market-implied forward rate densities rather than focusing on the minimization of price or volatility discrepancies. A thorough empirical analysis based on cap market quotes shows that our model displays superior performance compared to the Vasicek and CIR models regardless of the calibration method. Our proposed calibration procedure based on the JS divergence better captures the entire forward rate distribution compared to competing approaches while maintaining a good fit in terms of pricing and implied volatility errors.

Monetary policy effects in times of negative interest rates: What do bank stock prices tell us?

This paper investigates bank stock performance following different monetary policy actions in times of positive and negative interest rates. Controlling for the broader stock market, monetary policy announcements that cause an unanticipated downward shift in the yield curve and a flattening of the shorter-end of the yield curve are found to persistently reduce bank stock prices once the interest rate environment is negative. Consistent with the deposits channel of monetary policy, the effects are larger and more persistent for banks that are relatively dependent on deposit funding. By contrast, a surprise movement in the slope of the longer-end of the yield curve does not impact bank stock prices in times of negative interest rates. Accounting data confirm that a parallel drop in the yield curve following a monetary policy decision in a negative interest rate environment hurts banks through shrinking deposit margins.

Do Divisia monetary aggregates help forecast exchange rates in a negative interest rate environment?

This paper contributes to the literature as the first work of its kind to examine the role and importance of Divisia monetary aggregates and concomitant User Cost Price indices as superior monetary policy forecasting tools in a negative interest rate environment. We compare the performance of Divisia monetary aggregates with traditional simple-sum aggregates in several theoretical models and in a Bayesian VAR to forecast the exchange rates between the euro, the dollar and yuan at various horizons using quarterly data. We evaluate their performance against that of a random walk using two criteria: Root Mean Square Error ratios and the Clark-West statistic. We find that, under a free-floating exchange regime, superior Divisia monetary aggregates outperform their simple sum counterparts and the benchmark random walk in a negative interest rate environment, consistently.

The impact of economic policy uncertainty on banks' non-interest income activities

This paper investigates how banks adjust their business model amid rising global economic uncertainty. Specifically, we analyze the effect of economic policy uncertainty (EPU) on banks' non-interest income activities, using a large panel dataset of 3913 banks operating in 9 countries over the period 2009–2018. We find no statistically significant effect of EPU on banks’ net non-interest income (NNII). Further analysis shows that the lack of impact on NNII is due to a reduction in gross non-interest income which was offset by a decrease in gross non-interest expenses. Our results also suggest that the likelihood of banks to diversify income amid high EPU is conditional on the negative interest rate environment.

Black\u2019s model in a negative interest rate environment, with application to OTC derivatives

The most common application of Black’s formula is interest rate derivatives pricing. Black’s model, a variant of Black-Scholes option pricing model, was first introduced by Fischer Black in 1976. In recent market conditions, where global interest rates are at very low levels and in some markets are currently zero or negative, Black model—in its canonical form—fails to price interest rate options since positive interest rates are assumed in its formula. In this paper we propose a heuristic method that, without explicit assumptions about the forward rate generating process, extends the cumulative standard normal distribution domain to negative interest rates and allows Black’s model to work in the conventional way. Furthermore, we provide the derivations of the so called five Greek letters that enable finance professionals to evaluate the sensitivity of an option to various parameters. Along with the description of the methodology, we present an extensive simulation study and a comparison with the Normal model which is widely used in the negative environment option pricing problems.

The effects of negative interest rates: a literature review and additional evidence on the performance of the European banking sector

Reducing interest rates to below zero may be justified on theoretical grounds. However, in practice, it has been shown to create a number of distortions and malfunctions in several dimensions of banking system and the financial markets, which in turn may affect the whole economy. This paper surveys the theoretical grounds of unconventional monetary policy, focusing mostly on the available empirical evidence in order to provide a full picture of the impact of negative monetary policy rates. It also investigates the impact of negative interest rates on the European banking sector using a dataset of 3,155 banks from 36 European countries over the 2011–2018 period. Using a difference-in-differences methodology, we show that banks in negative interest rate environments experienced a 17.4% decrease in their net interest margins compared to banks operating in European countries that did not adopt negative interest rates. The results are found to be robust after combining propensity score matching with a difference-in-differences approach. Moreover, we find that banks that hold more liquid assets, that are highly capitalised, that have larger reserves at central banks and that take more customer deposits are more strongly affected by negative interest rates.

Stock returns and interest rate differential in high and low interest rate environments

AbstractIn this study, we contribute to the literature in three ways. First, we test whether the response of stock returns to interest rate differential contrasts between high and low interest rate environments. Second, we further test whether positive and negative interest rate differentials impact differently on stock returns. For completeness, we examine the role of negative interest rate policy in the nexus by testing whether the response of stock returns to interest rate differential varies between negative and positive low interest rate environments. The third objective becomes necessary as negative interest rate may not necessarily translate into negative interest rate differential and vice versa. Using panel data methods that allow for nonstationarity, mixed order of integration and cross‐sectional heterogeneity in the estimation process, we find contrasting evidence between the two interest rate environments. While the relationship is negative for the low interest rate economies, a positive sign is observed for the high interest rate group. The ‘asymmetry’ effect in the relationship is only evident in the short run and in addition interest rate differential tends to improve stock returns in negative interest rate environment albeit in the short run. We also find contrasting evidence between the positive and negative low interest rates where the nexus remains negative for the positive (low) interest rate group and positive nexus for negative (low) interest rate category.

Bank lending margins in a negative interest rate environment

AbstractFollowing the 2008 Global Financial Crisis, the central banks of many advanced economies resorted to unconventional monetary policies including, the adoption of a negative interest rate policy, aimed at spurring economic recovery and growth. The effectiveness of this policy remains an ongoing debate and largely limited to theoretical assertions. Using a dataset of 9,638 banks from 41 countries over the period 2009–2018, and a Difference‐in‐Differences estimator, this paper examines whether the adoption of a negative interest rate policy has any effect on bank lending margins. We find that bank margins have contracted in countries where negative rates have been implemented. Our results suggest that, in a negative interest rate environment, the rate on loans declines faster than the rate on retail deposits. Moreover, we show that the effects of negative interest rate policy (NIRP) on bank lending margins were stronger for smaller, less capitalized, deposit‐dependent banks. Finally, our findings indicate that banks reliant on retail deposits increased lending in response to NIRP.

Asset-Liability Management of Life Insurers in the Negative Interest Rate Environment

This study investigates the asset-liability management (ALM) of life insurers in the markets with negative interest rates. Using a sample of Japanese life insurers between 1999 and 2018, we provide initial evidence that the negative interest rate environment produces a much more serious consequence on insurers than the positive interest rate environment. Given that duration and convexity are two common measures widely used by insurers to manage their assets and liabilities, we highlight that the assumption of flat yield curve underlying the traditional measures (e.g. the Macaulay and modified durations and convexities) is problematic when interest rates turn negative. To address this issue, we propose an ALM framework using the duration and convexity based on the Vasicek stochastic model. Our results show that the strategy based on the Vasicek model outperforms the strategy using the modified duration and convexity in the negative interest rate environment.

The Japanese Banks in the Lasting Low-, Zero- and Negative-Interest Rate Environment

The bursting of the Japanese bubble economy in the early 1990s put the stage for a lasting low-, zero-, and negative-interest rate environment, which fundamentally changed the business environment for the Japanese commercial banks. On the income side, with interest margins becoming increasingly depressed, net interest revenues declined, which forced the banks to expand revenues from fees and commissions. The banks had to cut costs by reducing the number of employees, closing branches and merging into larger banks. The gradual concentration process has most recently cumulated in the relaxation of the monopoly law. With the capital allocation function of banks being undermined, the Japanese economy has become zombified, suffering from anemic growth.

Bank interest rate margins in a negative interest rate environment

This paper studies the impact of the negative interest rate policy (NIRP) on euro area banks’ interest rate margins, using bank-individual data for the 2007-2019 period. An important extension to other studies is our breakdown of banks’ interest rate margin into a funding and lending component. Because of banks’ reluctance to reduce the interest rate on household deposits below zero, the funding margin of banks more reliant on deposit funding has declined compared to that of other banks. Our evidence shows that these banks have been unwilling or unable to compensate this by boosting their lending margins. Therefore, negative rates have significantly reduced the overall net interest margin of deposit-dependent banks compared to other banks.

The effects of negative interest rates on cash usage: Evidence for EU countries

Changes in interest rates below the zero lower bound could have potential effects on the payments market by making cash more attractive for consumers as a medium of payment and wealth storage. This paper studies how cash usage has been affected by the recent introduction of negative interest rates in European countries. Using a difference-in-differences methodology over the period 2006–2018, results show an increase in cash usage in negative interest-rate environments. We also find that the increase in cash usage was less pronounced in countries with superior monitoring capacity of banks (i.e. high levels of financial intermediation).

How Would US Banks Fare in a Negative Interest Rate Environment?

The effectiveness of negative interest rates as a monetary policy tool depends importantly on the response of the banking sector. This paper offers unique new insights for U.S. banks by using supervisory data to examine bank-level expectations regarding the impact of negative rates on profitability through net interest margins. The main results show that the largest U.S. banks differ significantly in how they respond to negative interest rates. The most significant channel of adverse exposure comes from the pass-through of the negative policy rate to interest rates on short-term liquid assets held on the balance sheet. At the same time, on the liability side, banks that rely more heavily on short-term wholesale funding, including financing through the repo market, may benefit through a reduction in funding costs. In the aggregate, these effects likely wash out as liquidity provision is sufficiently well diversified across the banking sector as a whole.

COVID-19 Pandemic, Direct Cash Transfers, and the Federal Reserve

Over the past few years, some observers have been warning that the Fed needs to update its operating framework to include a level target and the ability to implement direct cash transfers in special situations like the current crisis. They make the case that it is better for the Fed to provide any direct cash transfers because it is nimbler and more likely to do so in a rules-based manner. That time has come, and this policy brief shows how to ensure that the overhaul of the Fed’s operating framework can provide powerful countercyclical policy in a manner that is both systematic and based on rules. The overhaul consists of three main steps: First, the Fed needs to adopt a two-rule approach to monetary policy so that it can handle both positive and negative interest rate environments. Second, the Fed needs to adopt a nominal GDP level target so that it can stabilize dollar incomes and make up for past misses in its target. Finally, the Fed needs to be given a standing fiscal facility so that it can do direct money transfers, or “helicopter drops,” to households once interest rates hit 0 percent. This feature cuts out the “middleman” of monetary policy during severe economic downturns. These three steps are outlined in greater detail in this policy brief.

No-arbitrage one-factor term structure models in zero- or negative-lower-bound environments

One-factor no-arbitrage term structure models where the instantaneous interest rate follows either the process proposed by Vasicek (1977) or by Cox, Ingersoll, and Ross (1985), commonly known as CIR, are parsimonious and analytically tractable. Models based on the original CIR process have the important characteristic of allowing for a time-varying conditional interest rate volatility but are undefined in negative interest rate environments. A Shifted-CIR no-arbitrage term structure model, where the instantaneous interest rate is given by the sum of a constant lower bound and a non-negative CIR-like process, allows for negative yields and benefits from similar tractability of the original CIR model. Based on the U.S. and German yield curve data, the Vasicek and Shifted-CIR specifications, both considering constant and time-varying risk premia, are compared in terms of information criteria and forecasting ability. Information criteria prefer the Shifted-CIR specification to models based on the Vasicek process. It also provides similar or better in-sample and out-of-sample forecasting ability of future yield curve movements. Introducing a time variation of the interest rate risk premium in no-arbitrage one-factor term structure models is instead not recommended, as it provides worse information criteria and forecasting performance.

Monetary Policy Effects in Times of Negative Interest Rates: What do Bank Stock Prices Tell Us?

Do negative interest rates matter for bank performance? This paper investigates whether monetary policy surprises impact bank stock prices differently in times of positive and negative interest rates. The analysis controls for broad stock market movements and finds that an unanticipated downward shift in the yield curve and a flattening of the shorter-end of the yield curve resulting from monetary policy announcements reduce bank stock prices in a low and especially negative interest rate environment. The effects persist in the days after the monetary policy announcement and are larger for banks relatively dependent on deposit funding. By contrast, a surprise movement in the slope of the longer-end of the yield curve does not impact bank stock prices in a negative interest rate environment. The results indicate that when market interest rates are negative but deposit rates stuck at zero, monetary policy instruments that target the longer-end of the yield curve are less detrimental to bank performance than those that target the shorter-end of the yield curve.

The Japanese Banks in the Lasting Low-, Zero- and Negative-Interest Rate Environment

The bursting of the Japanese bubble economy in the early 1990s put the stage for a lasting lowzero-, and negative-interest rate environment, which fundamentally changed the business environment for the Japanese commercial banks. On the income side, with interest margins becoming increasingly depressed, net interest revenues declined, which forced the banks to expand revenues from fees and commissions. The banks had to cut costs by reducing the number of employees, closing branches and merging into larger banks. The gradual concentration process has most recently cumulated in the relaxation of the monopoly law. With the capital allocation function of banks being undermined, the Japanese economy has become zombified, suffering from anemic growth.

The Transmission of Euro Area Interest Rate Shocks to Asia -- Do Effects Differ When Nominal Interest Rates are Negative?

ABSTRACT This paper proposes a non-linear factor-augmented vector autoregressive model to evaluate spillovers to Asia from an unexpected rate cut in the euro area. We focus on potential asymmetries in the transmission of the shock that could arise due to prevailing negative interest rates in the euro area. Our findings indicate significant and negative effects on short-and long-term interest rates throughout selected Asian economies. While the cross-country impact on yields is quite homogeneous when the policy rate in the euro area is positive, large heterogeneity emerges when the shock occurs under a negative interest rate environment in the euro area. For several countries, the effects on Asian long-term yields are stronger, this implies that not only relative yield differentials play a role for international investors but also the absolute yield level. In this sense, negative interest rate policies can act as an amplifier of international portfolio rebalancing.

An Operating Framework for the 21st Century

This paper makes the case that there is an urgent need to upgrade the Federal Reserve’s operating framework to handle the realities of the 21st century. To do this, the Fed needs to make several important changes. First, it needs to adjust its operating framework so that it is robust to both positive and negative interest rate environments. Second, the Fed needs to tie its operating framework to a level target so that it can do meaningful forward guidance. Finally, the operating framework needs the enhanced credibility that comes by providing the Fed explicit but constrained access to a standing fiscal facility at the zero lower bound. This paper outlines a proposal that accomplishes this goal and does so in a manner that would encourage the Fed to act in a more systematic, rules-based, and accountable manner.