Negative Indian Ocean Dipole Years Research Articles

The influence of climate variability events on the mesoscale eddies in the Bay of Bengal

This study investigates the temporal variability of mesoscale eddies in the Bay of Bengal (BoB) over a 29-year period (1993–2021) using satellite altimeters. High-resolution daily sea level anomaly data are considered to identify the mesoscale eddies in the BoB utilizing py-eddy-tracker, an automated eddy detection and tracking method. Wavelet coherence analysis was conducted to find a statistically significant relation between eddy properties and climate indices. The findings indicate that anti-cyclonic eddies are more susceptible to the consequence of the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) and El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) than cyclonic eddies. Additionally, the joined impact of ENSO and IOD conceivably alters eddy activities across the BoB, as the second downwelling coastal Kelvin wave (dCKW) were absent. The mesoscale eddies exhibit correlations with climate indicators, suggesting that eddies get stronger during La Niña and negative IOD years and get weaker during El Niño and positive IOD years. This is because La Niña and negative IOD events intensify the second dCKW, while it weakens or becomes completely absent during El Niño and positive IOD years. Random Forest model was used to compare the influence of ENSO and IOD on the forecasting performance of the eddy properties. It was demonstrated that a unique positive IOD (+IOD) negatively affects the forecasting of eddy properties when using Sea Surface Temperature (SST) and SST anomalies. The findings bear importance in verifying and confirming the interactions between the ocean and climate.

Investigation of Tropical Cyclones in the North Indian Ocean and the Linkage to Extreme Weather Events over Sri Lanka

Heavy rainfall due to tropical cyclones (TCs) in the North Indian Ocean (NIO) adversely impacts nations frequently. Though extensive research has focused on TCs in the NIO, less attention has been given to the connection between TCs and extreme events in Sri Lanka. This study examined atmospheric characteristics during sixteen extreme events, focusing on linkages between TCs, the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD), and mechanisms behind heavy rainfall associated with TCs over Sri Lanka. The results showed that in the pre-monsoon period, TCs move northward with high water vapor (WV) content accumulated in the Southern Hemisphere. This main WV flow over the equatorial Indian Ocean (EIO) is connected with TCs, causing considerable damage in the southwestern part of Sri Lanka. During negative IOD years, strong westerly winds create cyclonic circulations on either side of the equator. Conversely, during the post-monsoon period, the IOD phase has no significant effect. TCs generally followed westward tracks, supported by winds from the Northern Hemisphere, and caused heavy rainfall in the Eastern, Northern, and Northcentral provinces in Sri Lanka. These TCs are isolated from the main WV flow over EIO. Such observed common characteristics during pre-monsoon and post-monsoon seasons are key factors contributing to extreme rainfall in Sri Lanka.

Assessment of vegetation variation and its response to ENSO and IOD in the semi-arid ecosystem of Western India

Abstract The variation in the vegetation pattern reflects the change in the regional environment. Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) data from 2000 to 2022 for the Upper Bhima sub-basin in Western India has been used to identify the response of vegetation to the El Niño-Southern Oscillations (ENSO) and Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) events. As a novelty, the present study identifies the ENSO-sensitive and IOD-sensitive vegetation areas within the watershed using vegetation mean to difference anomalies. Monthly NDVI anomalies are used to determine sensitive pixels of vegetation using mean monthly NDVI. Local spatial autocorrelation (LISA) is performed to analyze the pattern of the NDVI anomalies and cluster maps are generated. The results of spatial variation show that NDVI is adversely affected in El Niño years. During La Niña years, the percentage area covered by dense vegetation is more than 80%, which is significantly higher than that of El Niño years in the monsoon and post-monsoon periods. Positive IOD years show significantly more sparse vegetation cover than negative IOD years. The results of LISA analysis show that the rainfall shadow zone in the study area has a cluster of negative sensitive pixels even in the monsoon and post-monsoon period except in negative IOD year.

A Comparison of Wave Spectra during Pre-Monsoon and Post-Monsoon Tropical Cyclones under an Intense Positive IOD Year 2019

The impact of Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) events on the generation and intensity of tropical cyclones under the influence of monsoons is explored. The standardized sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies are computed for the pre-monsoon and post-monsoon months for the Bay of Bengal (BOB) and Arabian Sea (AS) from 1971 to 2020 and relationships are analyzed with the frequency of tropical cyclones for the neutral, positive and negative IOD years. Ocean states are sensitive to cyclonic conditions exhibiting a complex spectral distribution of the wave energy. Due to a tropical cyclone, the surface waves remain under high wind forcing conditions for prolonged periods generating a huge amount of energy. The spectral wave model SWAN (Simulating WAves Nearshore) is used to generate the energy density spectra during FANI (26 April–5 May 2019), which was a pre-monsoon extreme severe cyclonic storm, and BULBUL (5–12 November 2019), which was a post-monsoon very severe cyclonic storm in the BOB region. This study aims to estimate the intensity of wave energy during tropical cyclones in the pre- and post-monsoon months for 2019 (an extremely positive IOD year).

El Nino/La Nina and IOD impact on Kharif season crops over western agro-climatic zones of India

Climate modes like ENSO (El Nino Southern Oscillation) and IOD (Indian Ocean Dipole) produce an impact on the monsoon rainfall over India. Monsoon rainfall is extremely important for the agriculture of our country. The impact of these climate modes on monsoon rainfall thus in turn affects the rain-fed crops (kharif). In this study, four kharif season crops namely rice (Oryza sativa), maize (Zea mays), pulses and sugarcane (Saccharum officinarum) are chosen over four arid/semi-arid agro-climatic zones of western India to study the effect of the climate modes on selected crops. The detailed analysis has been carried out to show the impact of rainfall in the El Nino/La Nina (phases of ENSO) and IOD years on the crop productions over the mentioned zones viz. (Central plateau and hills region; Western plateau and hills region; Gujarat hills and plains region; Western dry region) from 1966–2011. The results show that rice productions which require hot and humid conditions have been largely affected during drought years associated with El Nino which results in poor rainfall over all the zones. The production of pulses which does not require excess humid conditions shows marginal improvement during the neutral years or non-El Nino/non-La Nina years. Maize production seems to be better in La Nina years and worst in the El Nino years as La Nina years are responsible for good rainfall in all zones. El Nino years provide a minor impact on sugarcane productions in different zones. La Nina years are well suited for sugarcane production in all zones of our study as sugarcane requires a good amount of moisture. Positive IOD years are associated with poor crop productions as compared to negative IOD years mostly in all zones as most of the positive IOD years happen to be El Nino years. El Nino-rainfall relation being dominant than positive IOD-rainfall relation is, therefore, responsible for negative rainfall anomalies over the selected zones.

Spatio-temporal signature of surface biophysical parameters in response to extreme IOD events using remote sensing

The Indian Ocean (IO) evidenced significant effects on regional and global ocean-atmospheric coupling variability in recent decades. Anomalous negative (positive) Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) events witnessed along tropical IO during 2016 (2019) are one of them. The spatial signature of anomalous IOD events was studied using sea surface temperature anomaly (SSTA), sea surface height, sea surface salinity, chlorophyll-a, zonal and meridional wind components obtained from remote sensing data. The strong easterly wind anomaly blowing along the Sumatra coast causes strong coastal upwelling pioneer for the positive IOD event in 2019. The westward horizontal advection of seawater leads to low (high) sea surface height anomaly along eastern (western) tropical IO. The eastern (western) tropical IO becomes gradually cold (warm) during the mature phase (September–October–November) of positive IOD. Due to strong upwelling high and low sea surface salinity were observed along the eastern and western tropical IO respectively. The prolonged stronger upward (downward) Ekman pumping velocity in east (west) results in divergence (convergence) of seawater responsible for the increase (decrease) of chlorophyll-a and marine primary productivity. The reverse phenomena were characterized by warmer (cooler) SSTA, higher (lower) sea surface height, low (high) sea surface salinity, and decrease (increase) of chlorophyll-a in the eastern (western) tropical IO in the 2016 negative IOD year. The westward (eastward) zonal Ekman mass transport is possible fueling the extreme condition of positive (negative) IOD events. A strong eastward propagating downwelling Kelvin wave was observed due to the reflection of the upwelling Rossby wave from the African coast. Dominated picoplankton (microplankton) to other phytoplankton size classes are responsible for the reoccurrence of open ocean bloom along western (eastern) tropical IO during positive IOD.

ENSO influence on Bay of Bengal cyclogenesis confined to low latitudes

The low-latitudinal cyclones (LLCs, originating between 5°N–10°N) constitute ≈40% of tropical cyclones (TCs) formed in the Bay of Bengal (BoB). We investigate the interannual variability of post-monsoonal (October to December) BoB LLCs and their teleconnection with El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD). It is found that the years with the fewer number of BoB LLCs are associated with anomalous equatorial easterlies that are largely connected with the El Niño and positive IOD. Likewise, equatorial westerly phases, often associated with the La Niña and negative IOD years, favour the LLC formation by providing the initial spin-up required for cyclogenesis. This teleconnection between ENSO/IOD and BoB TC frequency is confined in the low-latitudinal region with little influence for cyclogenesis north of 10°N during ENSO and IOD except during negative IOD. These results may help extend the lead time and improve the seasonal prediction of BoB TCs.

Analysis of Drought-Sensitive Areas and Evolution Patterns through Statistical Simulations of the Indian Ocean Dipole Mode

In this study, we investigated extreme droughts in the Indochina peninsula and their relationship with the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) mode. Areas most vulnerable to drought were analyzed via statistical simulations of the IOD based on historical observations. Results of the long-term trend analysis indicate that areas with increasing spring (March–May) rainfall are mainly distributed along the eastern coast (Vietnam) and the northwestern portions of the Indochina Peninsula (ICP), while Central and Northern Laos and Northern Cambodia have witnessed a reduction in spring rainfall over the past few decades. This trend is similar to that of extreme drought. During positive IOD years, the frequency of extreme droughts was reduced throughout Vietnam and in the southwestern parts of China, while increased drought was observed in Cambodia, Central Laos, and along the coastline adjacent to the Myanmar Sea. Results for negative IOD years were similar to changes observed for positive IOD years; however, the eastern and northern parts of the ICP experienced reduced droughts. In addition, the results of the statistical simulations proposed in this study successfully simulate drought-sensitive areas and evolution patterns of various IOD changes. The results of this study can help improve diagnostic techniques for extreme droughts in the ICP.

Interannual variability and characteristics of the East India Coastal Current associated with Indian Ocean Dipole events using a high resolution regional ocean model

The characteristics and variability of the East India Coastal Current (EICC), the western boundary current in the Bay of Bengal (BoB) during the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) years between 2006 and 2012 have been investigated using the high-resolution Regional Ocean Modeling System (ROMS). The evolution of temperature, mixed layer depth (MLD), and seasonal basin scale circulation in the upper ocean simulated by the model agrees well with the observations. The EICC in BoB is characterized by a seasonal reversal flow: the poleward EICC during February−May and the equatorward EICC during August−December. A long-term simulation from 2006 to 2012 suggest that the circulation pattern, boundary current structure, and transport in the western BoB are completely different in positive and negative IOD years. As IOD is mainly phase-locked to the seasonal cycle with most significant influence in the Borel autumn, the equatorward EICC is affected during the IOD years. It is found that the strength of this EICC is ~ 5 Sv in October 2010 and a weaker EICC dominated by the presence of eddies is observed in October 2006. We also quantified the local and remote forcing effects on the variability of EICC and found that the seasonal coastal Kelvin waves (KWs) play a dominant role in the development of the EICC. During positive IOD year 2006, due the absence of second downwelling KW, the EICC is completely disorganized and dominated by the eddies, whereas in the negative IOD year 2010, the strong second downwelling KW plays a key role in developing organized and stable EICC in the western BoB.

The pre-Argo ocean reanalyses may be seriously affected by the spatial coverage of moored buoys

Assimilation methods, meant to constrain divergence of model trajectory from reality using observations, do not exactly satisfy the physical laws governing the model state variables. This allows mismatches in the analysis in the vicinity of observation locations where the effect of assimilation is most prominent. These mismatches are usually mitigated either by the model dynamics in between the analysis cycles and/or by assimilation at the next analysis cycle. However, if the observations coverage is limited in space, as it was in the ocean before the Argo era, these mechanisms may be insufficient to dampen the mismatches, which we call shocks, and they may remain and grow. Here we show through controlled experiments, using real and simulated observations in two different ocean models and assimilation systems, that such shocks are generated in the ocean at the lateral boundaries of the moored buoy network. They thrive and propagate westward as Rossby waves along these boundaries. However, these shocks are essentially eliminated by the assimilation of near-homogenous global Argo distribution. These findings question the fidelity of ocean reanalysis products in the pre-Argo era. For example, a reanalysis that ignores Argo floats and assimilates only moored buoys, wrongly represents 2008 as a negative Indian Ocean Dipole year.

Intraseasonal rainfall variability in the Bay of Bengal during the Summer Monsoon: coupling with the ocean and modulation by the Indian Ocean Dipole

AbstractThe Indian Summer Monsoon rainfall exhibits pronounced intraseasonal variability in the Bay of Bengal (BoB). This study examines the intraseasonal rainfall variability with foci on the coupling with sea surface temperatures (SST) and its interannual modulation. The lagged composite analysis reveals that, in the northern BoB, SST warming leads the onset of intraseasonal rainfall by 5 days. Latent heat flux is reduced before the rain event but is greatly amplified during the rainfall maxima. Further analysis reveals that this intraseasonal rainfall‐SST relationship through latent heating is strengthened in negative Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) years when the bay‐wide local SST is anomalously warm. Latent heat flux is further increased during the intraseasonal rainfall maxima leading to strengthened rainfall variability. The moisture budget analysis shows this is primarily due to stronger low‐level moisture convergence in negative IOD years. The results provide important predictive information on the monsoon rainfall and its active/break cycles.

Variability of the Seychelles–Chagos Thermocline Ridge Dynamics in Connection With ENSO and Indian Ocean Dipole

Remote processes, such as El Nino- Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD), are primary drivers of the Seychelles–Chagos thermocline ridge (SCTR) interannual variability with respect to ocean temperature and salinity. Although salinity variability in this region is understudied, previous studies have separated out effects of El Nino and IOD on sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies and concluded SST changes due to IOD are primarily associated with the southward advection of warmer equatorial water. Likewise, SST changes due to El Nino are associated with the suppression of clouds over the Indian Ocean. Although ENSO is known to have a stronger impact on SST south of the SCTR (10°S–15°S), this letter finds that the ENSO has a stronger impact on sea surface salinity (SSS) in the SCTR. This letter further explores how the surface and subsurface salinity and temperature in SCTR varies throughout the year in response to ENSO and IOD separate and coevents using long-term Simple Ocean Data Assimilation (SODA) reanalysis records. Our SSS results from the SODA reanalysis are compared and found to be consistent with soil moisture active passive derived SSS observations for both a positive and negative IOD year.

Influence of the South China Sea Biweekly Sea Surface Temperature on the South China Sea Summer Monsoon Especially during the Indian Ocean Dipole

ABSTRACTThe influence of the biweekly sea surface temperature (SST) in the South China Sea (SCS) on the SCS summer monsoon, especially during the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) is presented using the Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) Microwave Imager (TMI) SST and rainfall data for April to June from 1999 to 2013. During positive IOD (PIOD) years the biweekly SST anomalies over the SCS lead the rain anomalies by three days, with a significant correlation (r = 0.8, at the 99% confidence level), whereas during negative IOD (NIOD) years, the correlation is only 0.2. The biweekly SST is observed to influence the westward and northward propagating rainfall anomalies over the SCS and, hence, affect the SCS summer monsoon, especially during PIOD years. No such propagation was seen during NIOD years. The biweekly intraseasonal oscillation of SST in the SCS results in enhanced sea level pressure and surface shortwave radiation, especially during PIOD years. The potential findings here indicate that the biweekly SST in the SCS is strongly (weakly) influenced during PIOD (NIOD) years. Further, it is observed that SST in the SCS has a strong (weak) effect on the SCS summer monsoon by westward and northward propagation of rainfall, especially during PIOD (NIOD) years. When a PIOD or NIOD exists over the tropical Indian Ocean, the SCS SST will be strongly (r = 0.6, at the 99% confidence level) or weakly correlated with the residual index, respectively.

Episodic phytoplankton bloom events in the Bay of Bengal triggered by multiple forcings

Two episodic phytoplankton bloom events were identified in the southeastern and southwestern Bay of Bengal in January 1998 and December 2005, respectively, from SeaWiFS-derived chlorophyll-a concentration data collected between September 1997 and December 2010. Possible causes were examined using time series datasets of satellite-derived sea surface height anomalies, sea surface temperature, wind stress and Ekman pumping velocity data. It was found that strong cyclonic eddies with long residence time transported cold, nutrient-rich water from the subsurface layer to the euphotic zone, and were responsible for sustaining the continuous growth of phytoplankton that led to the two aforementioned phytoplankton blooms. Moreover, regarding the event in December 2005, three tropical cyclones passed through the region of the phytoplankton bloom and could have been additional factors that enhanced the bloom. Regarding the event in January 1998, transportation from the adjacent Andaman Sea by the geostrophic current and an anomalous zonal easterly wind contributed to the phytoplankton bloom in the southeastern Bay of Bengal. In addition, both blooms occurred during Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) years. The absence of the second downwelling Kelvin waves in positive IOD year of 1997–1998 favouring the long residence of the strong cyclonic eddy in the eastern bay, and the strong wind-induced mixing in negative IOD year of 2005 might contribute to enhancing productivity.

The influences of ENSO on tropical cyclone activity in the Bay of Bengal during October–December

The El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) influence on tropical cyclone (TC) activity (frequency, genesis location, and intensity) in the Bay of Bengal (BoB) during the primary TC peak season (October–December) are studied for the period of 1993–2010. The study shows that during primary TC peak season, accumulated cyclone energy in the BoB is negatively correlated with Niño3.4 sea surface temperature anomaly. Under La Niña regime number of extreme TC cases (wind speed >64 kt) increases significantly in the BoB during the primary TC peak season. The analysis further shows that negative Indian Ocean dipole year is also favorable for extreme TC activity in the BoB during the primary TC peak season. The existence of low‐level cyclonic (anticyclonic) vorticity, enhanced (suppressed) convection, and high (low) tropical cyclonic heat potential (TCHP) in the BoB provides favorable (unfavorable) conditions for the TC activity under La Niña (El Niño) regimes together with weak vertical wind shear and high sea surface temperature (SST). The genesis location of TC shifts to the east (west) of 87°E in the BoB during La Niña (El Niño) regime due to the variability in convective activity. The probable reason for the intense TC during a La Niña regime is likely explained in terms of longer track for TCs over warm SST and high TCHP due to eastward shifting of genesis location together with other favorable conditions. The variability of Madden‐Julian Oscillation and its influence on TC activity in the BoB during La Niña and El Niño regime are also examined.

Observational evidence of lower-frequency Yanai waves in the central equatorial Indian Ocean

The analysis of long time-series current meter data from a mooring at 77 0 E and equator during 20032007 along with mean sea level anomaly (MSLA) data throws light on the occurrence of the lower frequency Yanai wave (24-40 day) in the upper water column of the central equatorial Indian Ocean (EIO) during the positive Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) years of 2003, 2004, 2006 and 2007 and its absence during the negative IOD year of 2005. This result is in contrast with the earlier studies that observed only the higher frequency (biweekly period) Yanai wave in this region. We propose a new notion for the generation of the lower frequency Yanai wave in the upper central EIO due to the positive IOD phenomenon. The strong meridional current shear created by the northward shifting and strengthening of the westward flowing south equatorial current (SEC) associated with positive IOD and the eastward flowing southwest monsoon current provides energy for the generation of lower frequency Yanai waves. The vertical stratification of the water column appears to be responsible for the trapping of different frequency of Yanai wave with only the higher frequency Yanai wave in the region of lower pycnocline. During positive IOD the strongly stratified upper water column responds to the lower frequency Yanai wave while the deeper ocean (4000m) exhibited longer period (47-day) oscillation. The expected surface signature of Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO) seems to be suppressed by strong easterlies during the positive IOD years.

On the relative roles of El Nino and Indian Ocean Dipole events on the Monsoon Onset over Kerala

Interannual variations of the monsoon onset over Kerala (MOK) have been studied using data from over 60 years (1948–2009) of NCEP/NCAR reanalysis and outgoing long-wave radiation. The sea surface temperature fields over the North Indian Ocean associated with the MOK have been examined in association with El Nino and Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) events which originate in the Pacific and Indian Ocean, respectively. An analysis of the tropical convective maximum showed significant differences in its strength and location during the El Nino, IOD, early, normal, and delayed MOK composites. Further, we also looked into the role of the convective systems formed over the Arabian Sea and Bay of Bengal on MOK. The most significant features during early (delayed) MOK years is the abnormal persistence of westerlies (easterlies) several days prior to MOK and enhanced (suppressed) deep convection over the southeastern Arabian Sea and the southern Bay of Bengal. Moisture builds up over peninsular India several pentads prior to MOK during La Nina, negative IOD, and concurrent La Nina and negative IOD years as compared to the El Nino, positive IOD, and concurrent El Nino and positive IOD years, indicating its significant role on MOK. The monsoon Hadley cell and Walker circulations are weaker (stronger) during a delayed (early) MOK. Further, the sea surface temperature anomalies in the western Pacific are negative (positive) during delayed (early) MOK.