Negative Impact Of Uncertainty Research Articles

DEVELOPMENT OF INFORMATION SUPPORT FOR FISCAL RISK MANAGEMENT WITHIN CRISES

Crisis phenomena, such as economic downturns, health emergencies and geopolitical conflicts, had a significant impact on the transparency of information support for public financial management processes and the development of digitalization of the economy.The objective of the study is to assess the current state of information support and transparency of the management of fiscal risks caused by state-owned enterprises' activities under uncertainty.Within the study, the existing international approaches to identifying and assessing fiscal risks are analyzed; the areas for improving information support for managing fiscal risks caused by the activities of state-owned enterprises in emergency situations are identified; the impact of digital finance development on mitigating fiscal risks caused by emergencies is assessed. Proposals to increase the transparency of public finances and create additional revenues to the state budget by the development of innovative technologies are substantiated.Implementation of fiscal and monetary policy measures to mitigate the impact of COVID-19 and ensure sustainable post-pandemic recovery requires relevant financial information reflecting the country's financial position. A reliable source of such information is public financial and budgetary statements prepared by IPSAS and on an accrual basis. Given the negative impact of uncertainty caused by the coronavirus pandemic and war on the activities of state-owned enterprises, an important tool for improving the efficiency of fiscal risk management is the unification of approaches to establishing indicators for assessing relevant risks and providing information for their calculation. In response to lockdowns and social distancing measures during crises, citizens have increasingly relied on digital channels to access government services, pay taxes, and receive financial support. This has necessitated improved digital infrastructure and service delivery mechanisms.

Effect of uncertain clinical conditions on the early healing and stability of distal radius fractures

Background and objectivesThe healing outcomes of distal radius fracture (DRF) treated with the volar locking plate (VLP) depend on surgical strategies and postoperative rehabilitation. However, the accurate prediction of healing outcomes is challenging due to a range of certainties related to the clinical conditions of DRF patients, including fracture geometry, fixation configuration, and physiological loading. The purpose of this study is to investigate the influence of uncertainty and variability in fracture/fixation parameters on the mechano-biology and biomechanical stability of DRF, using a probabilistic numerical approach based on the results from a series of experimental tests performed in this study. MethodsSix composite radius sawboneses fitted with titanium VLP (VLP 2.0, Austofix) were loaded to failure at a rate of 2 N/s. The testing results of the elastic and plastic behaviour of the VLP were used as inputs for a probabilistic-based computational model of DRF, which simulated mechano-regulated tissue differentiation and fixation elastic capacity at the fracture site. Finally, the probability of success in early indirect healing and fracture stabilisation was predicted. ResultsThe titanium VLP is a strong and ductile fixation whose flexibility and elastic capacity are governed by flexion working length and bone-to-plate distance, respectively. A fixation with optimised designs and configurations is critical to mechanically stabilising the early fracture site. Importantly, the uncertainty and variability in fracture/fixation parameters could compromise early DRF healing. The physiological loading uncertainty is the most adverse factor, followed by the negative impact of uncertainty in fracture geometry. ConclusionsThe VRP 2.0 fixation made of grade II titanium is a desirable fixation that is strong enough to resist irreparable deformation during early recovery and is also ductile to deform plastically without implant failure at late rehabilitation.

Uncertainty, bank opacity, and market structure

PurposeThe study examines the impact of uncertainty on bank opacity while particularly taking into account the moderating role of market structures.Design/methodology/approachUsing a sample of Vietnamese banks from 2007 to 2019, the paper measures uncertainty at the disaggregate level of the banking sector through the dispersion of bank shocks and capture bank opacity from the perspective of bank earnings management based on discretionary loan loss provisions. The authors apply both structural and non-structural proxies of bank competition/concentration to better explore the role of market structures. Empirical regressions are conducted using the fixed effect regressions with Driscoll–Kraay standard errors and the two-step system generalized method of moments (GMM) technique, and then verified by the least squares dummy variable corrected (LSDVC) estimator.FindingsBank earnings opacity is less severe in periods of higher uncertainty. Further analysis documents that the negative impact of uncertainty on bank earnings opacity is stronger when the level of bank competition increases or when bank market power decreases.Originality/valueThe finding highlighting the conditioning role of market structures is entirely novel in the uncertainty-bank opacity literature. Moreover, in providing additional evidence on the significant impact of uncertainty on bank opacity, while prior related studies explore economic policy uncertainty, the authors utilize micro uncertainty in banking that exhibits enormous superiority.

"Not having a minute of self-distancing during the social distancing is exhausting": a qualitative study on the perspective of caregivers of youth with type 1 diabetes during the COVID-19 pandemic.

ObjectiveTo investigate the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on caregivers of youth with type 1 diabetes.MethodsWe performed a qualitative research based on an open-ended questionnaire that was conducted through an online platform for primary caregivers of children and adolescents with type 1 diabetes. Participants were asked to describe the impact of the COVID-19 outbreak on their caring for youth with diabetes, as well as the emotional burden that it has brought to their personal lives. Interview responses were coded and stratified by youth age: ≤ 12 years (youth aged ≤ 12 years) and between 13 and 18 years (youth aged > 12 years). The connections between the responses were identified based on either positive or negative content of the reported experience. Data were analyzed in accordance with an inductive reasoning methodology.ResultsA total of 318 participants (mean age of 40.3 ± 8.1 years old) were included, representing caregivers of youth aged 11.7 ± 4.3-year-old with diabetes duration of 5.1 ± 3.8 years. The preponderance of negative feelings was noteworthy. Regarding diabetes care, more than 80% of participants reported concern and anxiety about the changes in habits that accompanied the pandemic. Also, more than half of caregivers regretted the isolation of their youth, factors that were associated with greater difficulty in achieving good glycemic control. Regarding the personal burden experienced, the negative impact of uncertainties and concerns about the COVID-19 were present in almost all participants.ConclusionThe period of pandemic may lead to exhaustion in caregivers of youths with type 1 diabetes, which reflects the need for mental health support strategies to help those families.Supplementary InformationThe online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1007/s00592-021-01753-3.

Investment and uncertainty: Are large firms different from small ones?

We examine the effect of uncertainty on investment by employing panel data from 25,000 Greek firms’ balance sheets. The sample period allows us to consider turbulent and tranquil periods. Uncertainty is proxied by a dynamic factor model. We explore the heterogeneity among the sectors within a panel quantile estimation framework. This allows us to differentiate between relatively low and relatively high values of investment. We reveal the different responses between and within sectors. At aggregate level the effect of uncertainty is negative. This negative effect increases substantially when the firm's investment rate is relatively high. The negative impact of uncertainty is more profound for smaller firms.

The Negative Impact of Uncertainty on R&D Investment: International Evidence

Previous studies have not provided consistent conclusions regarding the impact of uncertainty on research and development (R&D) investment. While most of the previous literature has focused only on one or a small group of countries, this study examines the effect of uncertainty on R&D on the basis of a sample covering 109 countries from 1996 to 2018. The country-level uncertainty is measured using the “World Uncertainty Index”, which has recently been developed by Ahir et al. (2018). By estimating a panel data fixed-effects regression model, it is found that uncertainty has a significantly negative impact on R&D investment at the country-level aggregate scale. We also find that uncertainty depresses the number of R&D personnel and patent applications, although the effect on R&D personnel is not statistically significant. These findings imply that high uncertainty poses a considerable threat to global innovation and technological progress. Heterogeneity analyses across different country groups demonstrate that, although the impact of uncertainty on R&D is not statistically significant in some country groups, its effect is always negative and no positive effect is observed.

Смягчение неопределенности при разработке научных приложений в интегрированной среде

The paper represents new means of the Orlando Tools framework. This framework is used as the basis of an integrated software environment for developing distributed applied software packages. The additional means are focused on mitigating various types of uncertainties arising from the job distribution in an integrated computing environment. They provide continuous integration, delivery, and deployment of applied and system software of packages. This helps to significantly reduce the negative impact of uncertainty on problem-solving time, computing reliability, and resource efficiency. An experimental analysis of the results of solving practical problems clearly demonstrates the advantages of applying these means.

Stock Return and the COVID-19 pandemic: Evidence from Canada and the US

We investigate the dynamic responses of stock return to the unexpected changes in the COVID-19 cases and the uncertainty associated with the pandemic. Using daily data from Canada and the US, we find there is a negative effect of an increase in the COVID-19 cases on the stock market in general. Moreover, the stock return responses are asymmetric in the increase and decrease in the cases in Canada. The asymmetry is caused by the negative impact of uncertainty about the pandemic. We also find that uncertainty adversely affects the US stock market. However, the magnitude is small.

A New Supply Chain System and Its Impulsive Synchronization

The purpose of this paper is to discuss modelling and synchronization of nonlinear supply chain system. Firstly, we present a new supply chain system which is sensitive to various uncertainties along with exogenous disturbances. Synchronization is an important method to reduce the negative impact of uncertainties and disturbances on the supply chain. Since impulsive control can reduce control cost and the amount of transmitted information drastically, we discuss impulsive synchronization behavior of two supply chain systems with the same structure. Finally, simulation experiments are given to show the effectiveness of our analytical results.

Uncertainty and R&D investment: Does product market competition matter?

In recent years, the question of how uncertainty influences corporate decisions has received greater interest among academics, researchers, and corporations. This study is an attempt to investigate how uncertainties (firm-specific uncertainty (fsu), market-based uncertainty (mu), and economic policy uncertainty (epu)) influence research and development (R&D) investment and to further examine whether this relation is moderated by product market competition across firms of different sizes. Using a sample of Chinese listed firms covering 2000–2017, this study applies a two-step system GMM model to perform estimations and control for endogeneity issues. The findings show that uncertainties (fsu, mu, and epu) negatively influence R&D investment and that this negative relationship is more prominent for firms operating in competitive industries. In concentrated industries, however, the negative impact of uncertainty is mitigated for large firms, which have more internal resources and better access to external financing. This study contributes to real options theory by illustrating how different forms of uncertainty embedded in a firm’s internal and external environment reduce R&D investment, and by indicating how this relationship is moderated by product market competition.

The Relationship Between Relational Quality and Megaproject Success: The Moderating Role of Incentives

To improve the success rate of megaprojects from a relational perspective, we analyzed the factors that affect relational quality in megaprojects and the impact of relational quality on megaproject success. Based on survey data from 172 respondents, partial least squares structural equation modeling (PLS-SEM) was used to test the proposed structural model. The results show that in the case of low-level incentives, asset specificity and uncertainty have a negative impact on relational quality. Further, goodwill-based trust, competence-based trust and dependence have a positive effect on relational quality. However, in the case of high-level incentives, the negative impact of uncertainty on relational quality disappears, and the effect of asset specificity on relational quality becomes positive. In addition, this study validates the role of relational quality in promoting megaproject success; surprisingly, the moderating role of incentive level is not significant. These findings can help project managers improve megaproject success with the relational method and provide an inspiration for engineering managers to re-evaluate the effectiveness of incentives.

Intolerance of Uncertainty and Coping Mechanisms in Nonclinical Young Subjects.

We aimed to explore the relationship between intolerance of uncertainty (IU) and coping mechanisms in a nonclinical sample with the same age and educational level. The Coping Orientations to Problems Experienced (COPE) scale was used to evaluate the coping mechanisms. The IU scale was used to evaluate IU situations. We found that the negative impact of uncertainty on the action in female students was greater than males. While female students used more planning, instrumental support, reinterpretation, religion, emotional support, venting, and mental disengagement coping styles, male students used more humor, denial, and alcohol/drug abuse coping styles. Subjects with psychological problems had higher IU scores and used some more coping mechanisms (restraint, acceptance, behavioral disengagement, and alcohol/drug abuse) than the others. Our results suggest that healthy subjects use different coping styles and respond differently to uncertainty in both genders.

Payment for Results: Signaling Efficiency in Non-Profit Operations

The non-profit sector (NPO) faces two critical challenges in delivering public goods effectively and raising funds for developmental projects. The first challenge arises due to donors being uncertain about the NPO's efficiency to deliver the expected output (information asymmetry), and the second because the actual benefit provided is subject to uncertain exogenous shocks (outcome uncertainty). To partially address these challenges, the sector has seen the growth of the payment for results (PfR) funding approach, where the donor funds the NPO after the project is implemented and the outcome is observed, compared to the traditional funding (TF) approach where the donor contributes ex-ante. While the PfR approach addresses the donor's challenge, the NPO still faces a significant risk of shortfall in funds. In this paper we model the interaction between the donor and a NPO as a Stackelberg game and characterize the conditions under which TF and PfR emerge as the equilibrium outcomes when there is information asymmetry and outcome uncertainty. The donor moves first and decides the donation amount if the NPO were to opt for TF and the NPO responds by choosing TF or PfR. Counter to initial intuition, we find that the donor does not prefer PfR under all conditions. We find that incentivizing the NPO to choose TF increases the donor's expected utility when the negative impact of uncertainty and the donor's willingness to contribute are high. On the other hand, the donor prefers the NPO to use PfR when the impact of outcome uncertainty is relatively small. Using numerical studies, we find that PfR does not always maximize the expected benefit provided. We find that the gap between the maximum possible expected benefit and expected benefit at equilibrium is significant when outcome uncertainty and donor's willingness to contribute are high.

Exchange Rate Uncertainty and Agricultural Trade

AbstractUsing a sample of bilateral trade flows across ten developed countries between 1974 and 1995, this article explores the effect of exchange rate uncertainty on the growth of agricultural trade as compared to other sectors. Based on a gravity model that controls for other factors likely to determine bilateral trade, the results show that real exchange rate uncertainty has had a significant negative effect on agricultural trade over this period. Moreover, the negative impact of uncertainty on agricultural trade has been more significant compared to other sectors.

Testing an uncertainty model for women with multiple sclerosis.

This study sought to explain adaptation to the uncertainty of multiple sclerosis (MS) in women. A casual model, developed from the literature and from interviews with four women with MS, was tested on a sample of 90 women with MS. Successful adaptation was measured by self-esteem and mastery. The model accounted for 26% of the variance in mastery, with an empirical model accounting for a higher degree of variance (41%). Findings suggest that the negative impact of uncertainty in women with MS is significantly reduced by their spiritual and social relationships.