Near-term Climate Research Articles

Frameworks for analyzing the economic effects of climate change on outdoor recreation

CR Climate Research Contact the journal Facebook Twitter RSS Mailing List Subscribe to our mailing list via Mailchimp HomeLatest VolumeAbout the JournalEditorsSpecials CR 36:259-269 (2008) - DOI: https://doi.org/10.3354/cr00748 Frameworks for analyzing the economic effects of climate change on outdoor recreation W. Douglass Shaw1,*, John B. Loomis2 1Departments of Agricultural Economics and Recreation, Parks, and Tourism Sciences, Texas A&M University, College Station, Texas 77843-2124, USA 2Department of Agricultural and Resource Economics, Colorado State University, Fort Collins, Colorado 80523-1172, USA *Email: wdshaw@ag.tamu.edu ABSTRACT: Climate change is increasingly recognized as a major factor that may influence the recreational use of outdoor environments. Despite awareness of the pervasive effects of climate change, its effects on outdoor recreation have only recently been studied in detail. In this study we consider an economic framework that allows the modeling of the direct and indirect effects of climate change on users of recreation resources, via the impacts on natural resources upon which outdoor recreation depends. We also present a brief summary of selected empirical results bearing on climate-sensitive recreational activities. With the relatively small increases in temperature that are likely from near-term climate change, the number of people partaking in certain outdoor recreational activities—such as boating, golfing and beach recreation—is expected to increase by 14 to 36%. Numbers partaking in other activities—most notably snow sports like skiing—will likely fall. We discuss critical areas of future research that are needed to provide more detailed estimates of changes in recreation activities (along with associated economic effects) that are likely to arise from climate change in the future. KEY WORDS:Recreation · Tourism · Economics · Climate change Full text in pdf format PreviousCite this article as: Shaw WD, Loomis JB (2008) Frameworks for analyzing the economic effects of climate change on outdoor recreation. Clim Res 36:259-269. https://doi.org/10.3354/cr00748 Export citation RSS - Facebook - Tweet - linkedIn Cited by Published in CR Vol. 36, No. 3. Online publication date: June 24, 2008 Print ISSN: 0936-577X; Online ISSN: 1616-1572 Copyright © 2008 Inter-Research.

On the Meteorological Mechanisms Driving Postfire Flash Floods: A Case Study

Abstract This paper describes work to improve the understanding of the broad range of factors affecting the occurrence of postfire flooding, with emphasis on an event that occurred in the Alpine Shire, Victoria, Australia, in 2003. Analysis and mesoscale modeling of the conditions surrounding the event suggests that the drivers of the extreme rainfall event were above-average precipitable water in the atmosphere, significant values of CAPE, producing strong updrafts within the thunderstorm capable of supporting large quantities of suspended water droplets, and thunderstorm cell regeneration in the same area. However, atmospheric instability was further enhanced by anabatic breezes, above-average boundary layer moisture, and increased surface heating resulting from reduced surface albedo and soil moisture of the recently burned fire surface. Flash flooding resulted, due to 1) the storm cells likely being pulse wet microbursts, 2) cell regeneration over the same area (very little horizontal movement), and 3) the small catchment size. It is likely that a further contributor to the observed flash flood was the reduced infiltration often observed in recently burned catchments; these factors will be explored in a subsequent hydrologic study. It is intended that the mechanisms elucidated in this study will assist in emergency preparedness in the Alpine Shire. Given the warmer conditions expected with near-term anthropogenic climate change for the Alpine Shire, and the concomitant increase in fires, this causal relationship, even for a relatively rare event, has implications for emergency managers and Alpine Shire residents.

On Setting Near-Term Climate Policy While the Dust Begins to Settle

We review the explosion of commentary that has followed the release of the Stern Review: The Economics of Climate Change, and agree with most of what has been written. The Review is right when it argues on economic grounds for immediate intervention to reduce emissions of greenhouse gases, but we feel that it is right for the wrong reasons. A persuasive case can be made that climate risks are real and increasingly threatening. If follows that some sort of policy will be required, and the least cost approach necessarily involves starting now. Since policy implemented in 2007 will not “solve” the climate problem, near term interventions can be designed to begin the process by working to avoid locking in high carbon investments and providing adequate incentives for carbon sequestration. We argue that both objectives can be achieved without undue economic harm in the near term by pricing carbon at something on the order of $15 per ton as long as it is understood that the price will increase persistently and predictably at something like the rate of interest; and we express support for a tax alternative to the usual cap-and-trade approach.

Probabilistic forecasts of near-term climate change: sensitivity to adjustment of simulated variability and choice of baseline period

Probabilistic forecasts of near-term climate change: sensitivity to adjustment of simulated variability and choice of baseline period

Hot air for sale: a quantitative assessment of Russia’s near-term climate policy options

Since January 1st the European Union has launched an EU-internal emissions trading scheme (EU ETS) for emission-intensive installations as the central pillar to comply with the Kyoto Protocol. The EU ETS may be linked at some time to a Kyoto emissions market where greenhouse gas emission allowances of signatory Kyoto countries can be traded. In this paper we investigate the implications of Russian market power for environmental effectiveness and regional compliance costs to the Kyoto Protocol taking into account potential linkages between the Kyoto emissions market and the EU ETS. We find that Russia may have incentives to join the EU ETS as long as the latter remains separated from the Kyoto international emissions market. In this case, Russia can exert monopolistic price discrimination between two separated markets thereby maximizing revenues from hot air sales. The EU will be able to substantially reduce compliance costs when it does not restrain itself to EU-internal emission regulation schemes. However, part of the gains from extra-EU emissions trading will come at the expense of environmental effectiveness as (more) hot air will be drawn in.

Hot Air for Sale: A Quantitative Assessment of Russia's Near-Term Climate Policy Options

Since January 1st the European Union has launched an EU-internal emissions trading scheme (EU ETS) for emission-intensive installations as the central pillar to comply with the Kyoto Protocol. The EU ETS may be linked at some time to a Kyoto emissions market where greenhouse gas emission allowances of signatory Kyoto countries can be traded. In this paper we investigate the implications of Russian market power for environmental effectiveness and regional compliance costs to the Kyoto Protocol taking into account potential linkages between the Kyoto emissions market and the EU ETS. We find that Russia may have incentives to join the EU ETS as long as the latter remains separated from the Kyoto international emissions market. In this case, Russia can exert monopolistic price discrimination between two separated markets thereby maximizing revenues from hot air sales. The EU will be able to substantially reduce compliance costs when it does not restrain itself to EU-internal emission regulation schemes. However, part of the gains from extra-EU emissions trading will come at the expense of environmental effectiveness as (more) hot air will be drawn in.

To what extent can a long-term temperature target guide near-term climate change commitments?

The question of appropriate timing and stringency of future greenhouse gas (GHG) emission reductions remains an issue in the discussion of mitigation responses to the climate change problem. It has been argued that our near-term action should be guided by a long-term vision for the climate, possibly a long-term temperature target. In this paper, we review proposals for long-term climate targets to avoid ‘dangerous’ climate change. Using probability estimates of climate sensitivity from the literature, we then generate probabilistic emissions scenarios that satisfy temperature targets of 2.0, 2.5, and 3.0°C above pre-industrial levels with no overshoot. Our interest is in the implications of these targets on abatement requirements over the next 50 years. If we allow global industrial GHG emissions to peak in 2025 at 14 GtCeq, and wish to achieve a 2.0°C target with at least 50% certainty, we find that the low sensitivity estimate in the literature suggests our industrial emissions must fall to 9 GtCeq by 2050: equal to the level in 2000. However, the average literature sensitivity estimate suggests the level must be less than 2 GtCeq; and in the high sensitivity case, the target is simply unreachable unless we allow for overshoot. Our results suggest that in light of the uncertainty in our knowledge of the climate sensitivity, a long-term temperature target (such as the 2.0°C target proposed by the European Commission) can provide limited guidance to near-term mitigation requirements.

Recent Climate-Driven Increases in Vegetation Productivity for the Western Arctic: Evidence of an Acceleration of the Northern Terrestrial Carbon Cycle

Abstract Northern ecosystems contain much of the global reservoir of terrestrial carbon that is potentially reactive in the context of near-term climate change. Annual variability and recent trends in vegetation productivity across Alaska and northwest Canada were assessed using a satellite remote sensing–based production efficiency model and prognostic simulations of the terrestrial carbon cycle from the Terrestrial Ecosystem Model (TEM) and BIOME–BGC (BioGeoChemical Cycles) model. Evidence of a small, but widespread, positive trend in vegetation gross and net primary production (GPP and NPP) is found for the region from 1982 to 2000, coinciding with summer warming of more than 1.8°C and subsequent relaxation of cold temperature constraints to plant growth. Prognostic model simulation results were generally consistent with the remote sensing record and also indicated that an increase in soil decomposition and plant-available nitrogen with regional warming was partially responsible for the positive productivity response. Despite a positive trend in litter inputs to the soil organic carbon pool, the model results showed evidence of a decline in less labile soil organic carbon, which represents approximately 75% of total carbon storage for the region. These results indicate that the regional carbon cycle may accelerate under a warming climate by increasing the fraction of total carbon storage in vegetation biomass and more rapid turnover of the terrestrial carbon reservoir.

Probabilistic forecasts of near-term climate change: sensitivity to adjustment of simulated variability and choice of baseline period

The authors of this study recently proposed a resampling method for deriving probabilistic forecasts of near-term climate change and presented some results focusing on temperature and precipitation changes in southern Finland from 1971–2000 to 2011–2020. Here, the sensitivity of the resulting forecasts to two details of the methodology is studied. First, to account for differences between simulated and observed climate variability, a variance correction technique is devised. Second, the sensitivity of the forecasts to the choice of the baseline period is studied. In southern Finland, the variance correction technique generally widens the derived probability distributions of precipitation change, mirroring an underestimate of the observed precipitation variability in climate models. However, the impact on the derived probability distributions of temperature change is small. The choice of the baseline period is generally more important, but again the forecasts of temperature change are less sensitive to different options than those of precipitation change. Crossverification suggests that the variance correction leads to a slight improvement in the potential quality of the probabilistic forecasts, especially for precipitation change. The optimal baseline length appears to be at least 30 yr, and the baseline should be as late as possible (e.g. 1971–2000 is preferable over 1961–1990).

Probabilistic forecasts of near-term climate change based on a resampling ensemble technique

Probabilistic forecasts of near-term climate change based on a resampling ensemble technique

Probabilistic forecasts of near-term climate change based on a resampling ensemble technique

Probabilistic forecasts of near-term climate change are derived by using a multimodel ensemble of climate change simulations and a simple resampling technique that increases the number of realizations for the possible combination of anthropogenic climate change and internal climate variability. The technique is based on the assumption that the probability distribution of local climate changes is only a function of the all-model mean global average warming. Although this is unlikely to be exactly true, cross-verification indicates that the resulting biases are more than compensated by the increased sample size provided by the method. The resulting forecasts for southern Finland suggest a 95% probability of annual mean warming and an 80% probability of increased annual mean precipitation from the years 1971–2000 to 2011–2020 under the SRES A1B emissions scenario. The choice of the emissions scenario is unimportant for such short-term forecasts but becomes gradually more important towards the late 21st century. The simulations also suggest that the probability of near-term warming that is large enough to be discernible from internal variability is largest in the tropics where internal temperature variability is small, not in the Arctic where the average model-simulated warming is largest.

Global Warming Potentials: 1. Climatic Implications of Emissions Reductions

The use of Global Warming Potentials (GWPs) to calculate ‘equivalent’ carbon dioxide emissions reductions in the climate change context is examined. We find that GWPs are accurate only for short time horizons. Over long time horizons their use implicitly leads to tradeoffs between near-term and long-term climate change. For one of the most policy-relevant cases, comparing reductions in methane and carbon dioxide, the long-term effect on climate of reducing methane emissions is relatively small, at variance with the common perception based on published GWP values.

Sensitivity of a 1.4 GHz direct-sampling digital radiometer

This paper presents a novel direct RF sampling receiver architecture that will greatly facilitate the implementation of higher spatial resolution satellite radiometers for improved near-term climate forecasting. Direct-sampling is especially suitable for integration onto the distributed, multiple element platform used in L-band synthetic thinned array radiometry (STAR). To evaluate the direct-sampling concept, the authors have developed a statistical model that predicts the worst case radiometric sensitivity for a 1.4 GHz digital receiver. Theoretical results show that only 2-3 bits of converter resolution are needed to approach the performance of an ideal analog radiometer and that sampling jitter will not significantly degrade the performance of STAR.

Economic goals and requirements for competitive fusion energy

Future economic competitiveness, coupled to and constrained by environmental and safety characteristics, continues to provide a central strategic motivation and concern for fusion research. Attention must also be paid to the evolving cost projections of future fusion competitors, with appropriate consideration of externalized impacts, insofar as they establish the eventual market-penetration context and also influence the near-term funding climate for fusion R&D. With concept optimization and selection in mind, tradeoffs among system power density, recirculating power, plant availability (reflecting both forced and planned outages), complexity, and structural materials and coolant choices are best monitored and resolved in the context of their impacts on capital and operating costs, which, together with low fuel costs and financial assumptions, determine the projected life-cycle product cost of fusion. Considerations deriving from deregulation and privatization are elucidated, as are possible implications of modern investment-analysis methods.

Regional climate change scenarios under global warming in Kazakhstan

The aim of this paper is to report on the development of regional climate change scenarios for Kazakhstan as the result of increasing of CO2 concentration in the global atmosphere. These scenarios are used in the assessment of climate change impacts on the agricultural, forest and water resources of Kazakhstan. Climate change scenarios for Kazakhstan to assess both long-term (2× CO2 in 2075) and short-term (2000, 2010 and 2030) impacts were prepared. The climate conditions under increasing CO2 concentration were estimated from three General Circulation Models (GCM) outputs: the model of the Canadian Climate Center Model (CCCM), the model of the Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory (GFDL) and the 1% transient version of the GFDL model (GFDL-T). The near-term climate scenarios were obtained using the probabilistic forecast model (PFM) to the year 2010 and the results of GFDL-T for years 2000 and 2030. A baseline scenario representing the current climate conditions based on observations from 1951 to 1980 was developed. The assessment of climate change in Kazakhstan based on the analysis of 100-years observations is given too. As a result of comparisons of the current climate (based on observed climate) the 1× CO2 output from GCMs showed that the GFDL model best matches the observed climate. The GFDL model suggests that the minimum increase in temperature is expected in winter, when most of the territory is expected to have temperatures 2.3–4.5 °C higher. The maximum (4.3 to 8.2 °C) is expected to be in spring. CCCM scenario estimates an extreme worming above 11 °C in spring months. GFDL-T outputs provide an ‘intermediate’ scenario.

Historic and future climatic change in Zimbabwe

Near-term and current regional climate patterns for Zimbabwe are summarized based on twentieth-century observat~on data and model simulatlons. These records suggest alr temperature warming of up to 0.8C and a decline in annual precipitation during the past 60 yr Future climate scenarios, based on 2 General Circulation Model (GCM) equilibrium models, General Fluid Dynamics Laboratory (GFDL3) and Canadian Climate Centre (CCCM), were developed for Zimbabwe and southern Africa. Both GCMs suggest that with doubling of atmospheric CO2 mean air temperature will increase by 2 to 4°C. In contrast, these 2 GCMs project different current and future precipitation scenarios for Zimbabwe. When calibrated with observed climate data from Zimbabwe, the CCCM GCM closely simulated current ambient temperature and precipitation patterns. The El Niiio Southern Oscillation (ENSO) phenomenon is a major influence on interannual variability of climate in southern Africa. Future African regional climatology projections, based on GCM scenarios, will need to better consider ENSO and other factors if greater precision 1s to be achieved.