In design storm sea states, wave-in-deck forces need to be analysed for fixed and floating offshore platforms. Due to the complex physics of wave impact phenomena, numerical analyses should be complemented by model test data. With a large statistical variability, such experiments usually involve running many 3-h storm realisations. Efforts are being done to establish efficient procedures and still obtain improved statistical accuracy, by means of an initial simplified screening based on parameters derived from the incident wave record only. Here, we investigate the vertical rise velocity of the incident wave elevation at a fixed point in space, which indirectly measures both the local slope and the near-surface orbital velocity. A derived simple deck slamming model is also suggested, to support the check of the physical basis of the approach. Correlation against data from a GBS wave-in-deck model test is used for checking this model. The results show that, although there is a significant random scatter in the measured impact forces, especially in the local slamming forces but also in the global forces, there is a correlation to the rise velocity. Comparisons to the simple load model also show promising results when seen on background of the complex physics and random scatter of the impact problem.