Navy Coupled Ocean Data Assimilation Research Articles

Evaluation of a 4DVAR Assimilation System in the California Current at the SWOT Calibration/Validation Site

Abstract This study evaluates the feasibility of applying the Estimating the Circulation and Climate of the Ocean (ECCO) data assimilation (DA) framework to a submesoscale-resolving model [Massachusetts Institute of Technology General Circulation Model (MITgcm), at 1-km grid resolution]. This is in preparation for future studies to understand and assimilate the novel swath measurements of sea surface height from the Surface Water and Ocean Topography (SWOT) satellite mission. The model domain is centered at the SWOT calibration/validation (CalVal) site, located 300 km offshore of Monterey Bay, California. We assimilate vertical profiles of temperature and salinity from a linear array of three SWOT prelaunch CalVal moorings, between September and December 2019. Two model solutions are analyzed: 1) a nonassimilating forward simulation termed “first-guess” and 2) an optimized solution that assimilates the in situ observations. Both runs are nested within the global 1/12° Hybrid Coordinate Ocean Model that uses Navy Coupled Ocean Data Assimilation (HYCOM/NCODA) analysis. We evaluate the performance by comparing the two model solutions against assimilated and withheld in situ observations. We show that by assimilating hydrographic data, the model performance over the first-guess solution is improved with an error-to-observation reduction of 30%–45% for temperature, 14%–41% for salinity, and 44%–56% for steric height. Over the study period, the average steric height error at the three assimilated moorings was 1.27 cm for the optimized solution versus 2.6 cm for the first-guess solution. A comparison to withheld glider observations shows that the optimized solution outperforms the first-guess solution with an error-to-observation reduction of approximately 38% in steric height (1.5 versus 2.4 cm). This study indicates, for the first time, that the MITgcm–ECCO framework can be successfully applied to the reconstruction of submesoscale ocean variability, via the nesting of a high-resolution regional domain into a global outer domain.

Tropical cyclone wave data assimilation impact on air-ocean-wave coupled Hurricane Harvey (2017) forecast

The impact of surface wave assimilation on hurricane track and intensity forecasts has been investigated using a fully coupled air-ocean-wave tropical cyclone data assimilation and forecast modeling system. A new 3DVAR wave assimilation method in the Navy Coupled Ocean Data Assimilation system (NCODA) maps the 1D wave energy spectra from buoys to 2D directional wave energy spectra using the maximum likelihood method (MLM) and corrects the wave model forecast component directional wave energy spectra. The Coupled Ocean/Atmosphere Mesoscale Prediction System for Tropical Cyclone Prediction (COAMPS-TC) is used to conduct three Hurricane Harvey (2017) air-ocean-wave coupled data assimilation and forecasting experiments with and without the wave data assimilation. Hurricane Harvey traversed through the Western Gulf of Mexico from 24 August to 1 September, 2017 and made landfall in the Texas and Louisiana coast. Validation of track, maximum wind speed, significant wave height, and mean absolute wave periods show wave assimilation of the 1D wave energy spectra from 13 National Data Buoy Center (NDBC) buoys reduced the forecast errors of these parameters compared to experiments without the wave assimilation. In spite of this positive outcome, the wave assimilation is unable to reduce Harvey’s 0-120 h forecast mean wave direction errors and correlation compared to the NDBC buoy time series

Energy and economic analysis of an ocean thermal energy conversion plant for Bangladesh: A case study

Bangladesh's surging power demand, especially in coastal regions and nearby islands, necessitates a shift towards sustainable energy sources to meet Sustainable Development Goal 7 (SDG-7) objectives. This research attempts to visualize the ocean thermal energy reserves of the Bay of Bengal, with an extended focus on the marine borders of Bangladesh using advanced data analytics. Extensive data used is from a hybrid ocean coordinate model, Hybrid Coordinate Ocean Model and Navy Coupled Ocean Data Assimilation (HYCOM + NCODA) at 1/12° resolution, which has proven to be sophisticated and precise in providing oceanic information. Analyzing the data shows that geographically Bangladesh is feasible for Ocean Thermal Energy Conversion (OTEC) plants. A model plant is implemented at the potential location, and a Machine Learning (ML) model is trained to forecast temperature values for the future lifetime of the plant. ML forecasted results show the annual average power generated varies between 103.8 and 105.8 MW throughout the plant's life. However, a slight downward trend in generated power is observed, possibly due to climate change. The Levelized Cost of Electricity (LCOE) is calculated at 0.164 USD/kW, with an 11-year payback period. Notably, the plant registers zero Greenhouse Gas (GHG) emissions, aligning with Bangladesh's SDG-13 targets.

Ocean drifter velocity data assimilation Part 2: Forecast validation

A large deployment of drifters conducted during August-December, 2020 in the Gulf of Mexico offers a test bed for a data assimilation system developed specifically to include velocity observations. This updated Navy Coupled Ocean Data Assimilation system employs the three-dimensional variational approach and is described in part one of this two-part paper (Helber et al, 2023). In this paper, we examine the impact of velocity data assimilation on the ensuing forecasts of the ocean state including not only velocity but also temperature and salinity fields below the surface. Two high-resolution (1 km) experiments were performed in the Gulf of Mexico; one with velocity data assimilation and the other without. The resulting 48 h forecasts of temperature, salinity, and velocity are examined and compared relative to the observations being assimilated (including the inferred velocities from the drifters) and unassimilated observations of temperature, salinity, and velocity from two gliders near the drifters. In addition, we assess eddy positioning and Lagrangian trajectory separation. Comparisons of these two experiments, with and without velocity data assimilation, suggest that adding velocity observations to the assimilation increases skill in predicting velocity and the subsurface temperature and salinity.

Spatial and seasonal variations of near-inertial kinetic energy in the upper South China Sea: Role of synoptic atmospheric systems

The spatial distribution and seasonal variation of near-inertial kinetic energy (NIKE) in the upper ocean of the South China Sea (SCS) are examined using the Global 1/12° Analysis Hybrid Coordinate Ocean Model and the Navy Coupled Ocean Data Assimilation reanalysis product. The annual mean NIKE in the upper SCS is characterized by a rapid decay with depth and a southwestward decrease from the west of Luzon Island to the southern SCS, reflecting the pattern of near-inertial energy input by the atmospheric wind field. Owing to the changes of near-inertial wind forcing as well as the mixed layer depth, NIKE in the upper SCS exhibits a pronounced seasonal cycle. The magnitude of mixed layer NIKE averaged in the SCS in November-January is found to be approximately twice of that in April-June. Further analysis shows that the variation of near-inertial wind forcing in the SCS can, to a large extent, be explained by northerly cold surges during the winter SCS monsoon and strong tropical cyclones from the Tropical Pacific. In addition, the wind reversal during the monsoon transitional period and the low-level convergence formed by the elevated terrain of islands also contribute to oceanic near-inertial energy in the SCS.

Assessment of Several Ocean Reanalyzes about North Equatorial Current at 160° E

Three ocean reanalyzes including Simple Ocean Data Assimilation (SODA), Hybrid Coordinate Ocean Model, and the Navy Coupled Ocean Data Assimilation (HYCOM+NCODA) analysis, and the Ocean General Circulation Model for the Earth Simulator (OFES) are assessed about their ability of depicting the structure of North Equatorial Current (NEC) at 160° E. We found that these products could reflect the structure of NEC relatively well at the whole section, but not at the single point through comparing their results with mooring and cruising measurement, and the OFES is the best choice to study mesoscale processes versus the other two reanalyzes through comparing their results with satellite measurement.

On the Generation and Salinity Impacts of Intraseasonal Westward Jets in the Equatorial Indian Ocean

AbstractWhile westerly winds dominate the equatorial Indian Ocean and generate the well‐known eastward flowing Wyrtki Jets during boreal spring and fall, there is evidence of a strong westward surface jet during winter that is swifter than eastward currents during that season. A weaker westward jet is found in summer. In this study, we report the occurrence, characteristics, and intraseasonal variability of this westward jet and its impact on mixed layer salinity in the equatorial Indian Ocean using the HYbrid Coordinate Ocean Model (HYCOM) reanalysis with the Navy Coupled Ocean Data Assimilation (NCODA). The westward jet typically occurs in the upper 50 m, above an eastward flowing equatorial undercurrent, with peak westward volume transport of approximately −8 Sv. The westward jet builds up gradually, decays rapidly, and is primarily forced by local intraseasonal wind stress anomalies generated by atmospheric intraseasonal convection. Westward acceleration of the jet occurs when the dominant intraseasonal westward wind anomaly is not balanced by the zonal pressure gradient (ZPG) force. The intraseasonal westward jet generates strong horizontal advection and is the leading cause of mixed layer freshening in the western equatorial Indian Ocean. Without it, a saltier mixed layer would persist and weaken any barrier layers. Existing barrier layers are strengthened following the passage of freshwater‐laden westward jets. Deceleration of the westward jet occurs when the eastward ZPG becomes increasingly important and the westward intraseasonal wind anomalies weaken. A rapid reversal of atmospheric intraseasonal convection‐driven surface winds eventually terminates the westward jet.

Stratified Circulation in the Banda Sea and Its Causal Mechanism

AbstractThis study examines the vertical structure of the Banda Sea circulation, using the HYbrid Coordinate Ocean Model+Navy Coupled Ocean Data Assimilation Global Analysis (GLBa0.08) products. The vorticity distribution shows a four‐layer structure in the Banda Sea circulation, stronger in the upper 700 m than in the deeper layers. Circulation during the northwesterly monsoon is cyclonic in the surface layer and anticyclonic in the upper layer, opposite to its counterpart during the southeasterly monsoon. Circulation weakens dramatically in the intermediate layer and is persistently cyclonic in the deep layer. A four‐and‐a‐half‐layer quasi‐geostrophic model is proposed to identify the processes responsible for the stratified circulation structure. The result indicates that the circulation in the central and eastern Banda Sea is mainly forced by monsoonal winds, while in the western and southern boundaries of the Banda Sea the circulation is dominated by the effect of Coriolis force. The effect of Coriolis force lies in the fact that the Indonesian Throughflow enters the Banda Sea from lower latitudes and exits it at higher latitudes, resulting in a residual potential vorticity flux that drives the circulation in the Banda Sea. As upwelling connects the circulation in different layers, vertical vorticity flux also plays a role in driving the circulation in the thermocline, where Ekman pumping is prominent, and in the deep layer as well, where the Lifamatola Passage overflow‐induced upwelling dominates.

What controls the extreme flow through the Kerama Gap: a global HYbrid Coordinate Ocean Model reanalysis point of view

The temporal variability of volume transport from the North Pacific Ocean to the East China Sea (ECS) through the Kerama Gap (between Okinawa Island and Miyakojima Island—a part of Ryukyu Island Arc) is investigated using a 20-year global HYbrid Coordinate Ocean Model reanalysis with the Navy Coupled Ocean Data Assimilation from 1993 to 2012. We study the causes of extreme flow events defined as the volume transport through the Kerama Gap exceeding one standard deviation (4.50 Sv) above (inflow, from the North Pacific into the ECS) or below (outflow, from the ECS to the North Pacific) the mean volume transport (1.95 Sv). In our results, the impinging mesoscale eddies from the Pacific Ocean are the most important factor in controlling the extreme flow occurrence, explaining 70% (68%) of the mean extreme inflow (outflow)-mean volume transport anomaly. Extreme inflow (outflow) through the Kerama Gap is associated with the impinging anticyclonic (cyclonic) eddies along the eastern side of Okinawa and/or cyclonic (anticyclonic) eddies to the southwest of the gap. The Kuroshio frontal meanders cause the mean Kuroshio axis to shift away from (toward) the Kerama Gap during the extreme inflow (outflow)-mean events and play a secondary role in determining the extreme flow occurrence, representing 15% (14%) of the mean extreme inflow (outflow)-mean volume transport anomaly. The interannual variability of the flow through the gap also plays a subsidiary role, explaining another 13% (14%) of the mean extreme inflow (outflow)-mean volume transport anomaly.

Heat budget of the western Pacific warm pool and the contribution of eddy heat transport diagnosed from HYCOM assimilation

Using the high-resolution Hybrid Coordinate Ocean Model and the Navy Coupled Ocean Data Assimilation Global 1/12° Analysis (GLBa0.08), and the Objectively Analyzed Air–Sea Fluxes and the International Satellite Climatology Cloud Project products, we investigated the seasonal and interannual evolutions of heat budget, including the pseudo-heat content change, the net air–sea heat flux and the eddy heat transport (EHT), based on the time-dependent heat budget analysis in the western Pacific warm pool (WPWP). The results show that the pseudo-heat content change has significant semi-annual variation, which peaks in April–May and September. There is strong positive feedback between EHT and the net air–sea heat flux. EHT is important in balancing the sea surface heat flux into the WPWP. The seasonal EHT variability is dominated by its meridional component. On the interannual time scale, the zonal and vertical components of EHT show comparable amplitudes with the meridional one. The observed net air–sea heat flux in the WPWP is highly correlated with EHT and the pseudo-heat content change on the interannual time scale. The net air–sea heat flux leads the pseudo-heat content change by about half a month and leads EHT by about one month. The variations of the air–sea heat flux and EHT are connected to the El Nino Southern Oscillation events: during the development of El Nino (La Nina) events, the warm pool expanded eastward (retreated westward), the net air–sea surface flux into the WPWP increased (decreased) and EHT enhanced (weakened) significantly.

An assessment of the Brazil Current baroclinic structure and variability near 22° S in Distinct Ocean Forecasting and Analysis Systems

The Brazil Current (BC) is the Western Boundary Current of the South Atlantic subtropical gyre, the dominant dynamic feature in the South Atlantic Ocean. The importance of this current lies in that it is the main conduit of subtropical waters to higher latitudes in the South Atlantic Ocean. This study assesses the structure and variability of the BC across the nominal latitude of 22° S using data from the high-density eXpendable BathyThermograph (XBT) AX97 transect and from three numerical ocean models with data assimilation. This XBT transect was implemented in 2004 and represents one of the longer-term monitoring systems of the BC in existence. The goal of this work is to enhance the understanding of the temporal and spatial variability of the ocean dynamics in the southwestern South Atlantic Ocean by using a suite of hydrographic observations and numerical model outputs. In the present work, 37 XBT transect realizations using data collected between 2004 and 2012 are used. Daily outputs covering the same time period are evaluated from Hybrid Coordinate Ocean Model with the Navy Coupled Ocean Data Assimilation (HYCOM-NCODA) with a 1/12° horizontal resolution, and GLORYS2V3 and FOAM, both with a 1/4° horizontal resolution. These Ocean Forecasting and Analysis Systems (OFAS) are able to capture the mean observed features in the 22° S region, showing a BC core confined to the west of 39° W and an Intermediate Western Boundary Current between the depths of 200 and 800 m. However, the OFAS tend to overestimate the mean BC baroclinic volume transport across the AX97 reference transect and underestimate its variability. The OFAS show that the coastal region between the coastline and the western edge of the AX97 transect plays an important role in the mean BC total transport, contributing to up to 23 % of its value, and further that this transport is not sampled by the XBT observations with its current sampling strategy. In order to understand the variability of the BC, a statistical classification of the BC is proposed, with the identification of three different events: weak, intermediate, and strong.

The current system east of the Ryukyu Islands as revealed by a global ocean reanalysis

The structure and variability of the Ryukyu Current System (RCS), which forms the western boundary current along the eastern slope of the Ryukyu Islands, are studied using results from a 32-layer, 1/12.5° global HYbrid Coordinate Ocean Model (HYCOM) and Navy Coupled Ocean Data Assimilation (NCODA) reanalysis for the period 1993–2012. It is confirmed that the reanalysis realistically reproduces salient features of the observed currents at three sections southeast of Miyakojima, Okinawa and Amami-Ohshima. The mean velocity sections show well-developed subsurface velocity maxima between 700 and 900m. The current core southeast of Amami-Ohshima shows year-to-year variations with cyclonic (anticyclonic) circulation east of Amami-Ohshima generating weak (strong) velocity cores. Interaction of the RCS with an anticyclonic eddy often produces a two-core velocity structure, with a surface core in the upper 300m and a deeper core near 700–900m. The horizontal structure of the RCS at 15m depth shows a well-developed northeastward current northeast of Okinawa, which is partly fed by the southwestward extension of the anticyclonic recirculation gyre. The RCS forms a continuous northeastward current from Miyakojima to Amami-Ohshima below 500m with shoreward intensification. The circulation at 2000m shows a seasonal flow reversal, which is northeastward from December to June and southwestward from August to October with July and November being the transition months. The volume transports across these three sections have respective mean values of 0.6, 6.2 and 12.4Sv (1Sv≡106m3s−1) and standard deviations of 10.2, 7.1 and 11.3Sv. They have dominant seasonal variations with the maximum in winter and spring and the minimum in summer. The interannual variation of the transport anomaly, which co-varies with the RCS core, results from westward propagating mesoscale eddies arriving from the Pacific interior.

Seasonal cycle of volume transport through Kerama Gap revealed by a 20-year global HYbrid Coordinate Ocean Model reanalysis

The temporal variability of volume transport from the North Pacific Ocean to the East China Sea (ECS) through Kerama Gap (between Okinawa Island and Miyakojima Island − a part of Ryukyu Islands Arc) is investigated using a 20-year global HYbrid Coordinate Ocean Model (HYCOM) reanalysis with the Navy Coupled Ocean Data Assimilation from 1993 to 2012. The HYCOM mean transport is 2.1 Sv (positive into the ECS, 1 Sv = 106 m3/s) from June 2009 to June 2011, in good agreement with the observed 2.0 Sv transport during the same period. This is similar to the 20-year mean Kerama Gap transport of 1.95 ± 4.0 Sv. The 20-year monthly mean volume transport (transport seasonal cycle) is maximum in October (3.0 Sv) and minimum in November (0.5 Sv). The annual variation component (345–400 days), mesoscale eddy component (70–345 days), and Kuroshio meander component (< 70 days) are separated to determine their contributions to the transport seasonal cycle. The annual variation component has a close relation with the local wind field and increases (decreases) transport into the ECS through Kerama Gap in summer (winter). Most of the variations in the transport seasonal cycle come from the mesoscale eddy component. The impinging mesoscale eddies increase the transport into the ECS during January, February, May, and October, and decrease it in March, April, November, and December, but have little effect in summer (June–September). The Kuroshio meander components cause smaller transport variations in summer than in winter.

Retrieving density and velocity fields of the ocean's interior from surface data

AbstractUsing the “interior + surface quasigeostrophic” (isQG) method, the density and horizontal velocity fields of the ocean's interior can be retrieved from surface data. This method was applied to the Simple Ocean Data Assimilation (SODA) and the Hybrid Coordinate Ocean Model (HYCOM)/Navy Coupled Ocean Data Assimilation (NCODA) reanalysis data sets. The input surface data include sea surface height (SSH), sea surface temperature (SST), sea surface salinity (SSS), and a region‐averaged stratification. The retrieved subsurface fields are compared with reanalysis data for three tested regions, and the results indicate that the isQG method is robust. The isQG method is particularly successful in the energetic regions like the Gulf Stream region with weak stratification, and the Kuroshio region with strong correlation between sea surface density (SSD) and SSH. It also works, though less satisfactorily, in the Agulhas leakage region. The performance of the isQG method in retrieving subsurface fields varies with season, and peaks in winter when the mixed layer is deeper and stratification is weaker. In addition, higher‐resolution data may facilitate the isQG method to achieve a more successful reconstruction for the velocity retrieval. Our results suggested that the isQG method can be used to reconstruct the ocean interior from the satellite‐derived SSH, SST, and SSS data in the near future.

Variation of the North Equatorial Current, Mindanao Current, and Kuroshio Current in a high-resolution data assimilation during 2008–2012

Outputs from a high-resolution data assimilation system, the global Hybrid Coordinate Ocean Model and Navy Coupled Ocean Data Assimilation (HYCOM+NCODA) 1/12° analysis, were analyzed for the period September 2008 to February 2012. The objectives were to evaluate the performance of the system in simulating ocean circulation in the tropical northwestern Pacific and to examine the seasonal to interannual variations of the western boundary currents. The HYCOM assimilation compares well with altimetry observations and mooring current measurements. The mean structures and standard deviations of velocities of the North Equatorial Current (NEC), Mindanao Current (MC) and Kuroshio Current (KC) also compare well with previous observations. Seasonal to interannual variations of the NEC transport volume are closely correlated with the MC transport volume, instead of that of the KC. The NEC and MC transport volumes mainly show well-defined annual cycles, with their maxima in spring and minima in fall, and are closely related to the circulation changes in the Mindanao Dome (MD) region. In seasons of transport maxima, the MD region experiences negative SSH anomalies and a cyclonic gyre anomaly, and in seasons of transport minima the situation is reversed. The sea surface NEC bifurcation latitude (NBL) in the HYCOM assimilation also agrees well with altimetry observations. In 2009, the NBL shows an annual cycle similar to previous studies, reaching its southernmost position in summer and its northernmost position in winter. In 2010 and 2011, the NBL variations are dominantly influenced by La Nina events. The dynamics responsible for the seasonal to interannual variations of the NEC-MC-KC current system are also discussed.

US Navy Operational Global Ocean and Arctic Ice Prediction Systems

Abstract : The US Navy's operational global ocean nowcast/forecast system is presently comprised of the 0.08 HYbrid Coordinate Ocean Model (HYCOM) and the Navy Coupled Ocean Data Assimilation (NCODA). Its high horizontal resolution and adaptive vertical coordinate system make it capable of producing nowcasts (current state) and forecasts of oceanic weather, which includes three-dimensional ocean temperature, salinity, and current structure; surface mixed layer depth; and the location of mesoscale features such as eddies, meandering currents, and fronts. It runs daily at the Naval Oceanographic Office and provides seven-day forecasts that support fleet operations, provide boundary conditions to higher resolution regional models, and are available to the community. Using a data-assimilative hindcast and series of 14-day forecasts for 2012, the system is shown to have forecast skill of the oceanic mesoscale out to about 10 days for the Gulf Stream region and to 14+ days for the global ocean and other selected subregions. Forecast skill is sensitive to the type of atmospheric forcing (i.e., operational vs. analysis quality). Subsurface temperature bias is small ( 0.25 C) and root mean square error peaks at the depth range of the mixed layer and thermocline. Coupled to the Community Ice CodE (CICE) on the same grid, the HYCOM/CICE/NCODA system (initially restricted to the Arctic) provides sea ice nowcasts and forecasts. Ice edge location errors are improved from the previous sea ice prediction system but are limited in part by the accuracy of the satellite observations it assimilates.

Impact of bio‐optical data assimilation on short‐term coupled physical, bio‐optical model predictions

Data assimilation experiments with the coupled physical, bio‐optical model of Monterey Bay are presented. The objective of this study is to investigate whether the assimilation of satellite‐derived bio‐optical properties can improve the model predictions (phytoplankton population, chlorophyll) in a coastal ocean on time scales of 1–5 days. The Monterey Bay model consists of a physical model based on the Navy Coastal Ocean Model and a biochemical model which includes three nutrients, two phytoplankton groups (diatoms and small phytoplankton), two groups of zooplankton grazers, and two detrital pools. The Navy Coupled Ocean Data Assimilation system is used for the assimilation of physical observations. For the assimilation of bio‐optical observations, we used reduced‐order Kalman filter with a stationary forecast error covariance. The forecast error covariance is specified in the subspace of the multivariate (bio‐optical, physical) empirical orthogonal functions estimated from a monthlong model run. With the assimilation of satellite‐derived bio‐optical properties (chlorophyll a or absorption due to phytoplankton), the model was able to reproduce intensity and tendencies in subsurface chlorophyll distributions observed at water sample locations in the Monterey Bay, CA. Data assimilation also improved agreement between the observed and model‐predicted ratios between diatoms and small phytoplankton populations. Model runs with or without assimilation of satellite‐derived bio‐optical observations show underestimated values of nitrate as compared to the water sample observations. We found that an instantaneous update of nitrate based on statistical relations between temperature and nitrate corrected the model underestimation of the nitrate fields during the multivariate update.

Development and testing of a coupled ocean–atmosphere mesoscale ensemble prediction system

A coupled ocean–atmosphere mesoscale ensemble prediction system has been developed by the Naval Research Laboratory. This paper describes the components and implementation of the system and presents baseline results from coupled ensemble simulations for two tropical cyclones. The system is designed to take into account major sources of uncertainty in: (1) non-deterministic dynamics, (2) model error, and (3) initial states. The purpose of the system is to provide mesoscale ensemble forecasts for use in probabilistic products, such as reliability and frequency of occurrence, and in risk management applications. The system components include COAMPS® (Coupled Ocean/Atmosphere Mesoscale Prediction System) and NCOM (Navy Coastal Ocean Model) for atmosphere and ocean forecasting and NAVDAS (NRL Atmospheric Variational Data Assimilation System) and NCODA (Navy Coupled Ocean Data Assimilation) for atmosphere and ocean data assimilation. NAVDAS and NCODA are 3D-variational (3DVAR) analysis schemes. The ensembles are generated using separate applications of the Ensemble Transform (ET) technique in both the atmosphere (for moving or non-moving nests) and the ocean. The atmospheric ET is computed using wind, temperature, and moisture variables, while the oceanographic ET is derived from ocean current, temperature, and salinity variables. Estimates of analysis error covariance, which is used as a constraint in the ET, are provided by the ocean and atmosphere 3DVAR assimilation systems. The newly developed system has been successfully tested for a variety of configurations, including differing model resolution, number of members, forecast length, and moving and fixed nest options. Results from relatively coarse resolution (∼27-km) ensemble simulations of Hurricanes Hanna and Ike demonstrate that the ensemble can provide valuable uncertainty information about the storm track and intensity, though the ensemble mean provides only a small amount of improved predictive skill compared to the deterministic control member.

Comparisons of Daily Sea Surface Temperature Analyses for 2007–08

Abstract Six different SST analyses are compared with each other and with buoy data for the period 2007–08. All analyses used different combinations of satellite data [for example, infrared Advanced Very High Resolution Radiometer (AVHRR) and microwave Advanced Microwave Scanning Radiometer (AMSR) instruments] with different algorithms, spatial resolution, etc. The analyses considered are the National Climatic Data Center (NCDC) AVHRR-only and AMSR+AVHRR, the Navy Coupled Ocean Data Assimilation (NCODA), the Remote Sensing Systems (RSS), the Real-Time Global High-Resolution (RTG-HR), and the Operational SST and Sea Ice Analysis (OSTIA); the spatial grid sizes were , respectively. In addition, all analyses except RSS used in situ data. Most analysis procedures and weighting functions differed. Thus, differences among analyses could be large in high-gradient and data-sparse regions. An example off the coast of South Carolina showed winter SST differences that exceeded 5°C. To help quantify SST analysis differences, wavenumber spectra were computed at several locations. These results suggested that the RSS is much noisier and that the RTG-HR analysis is much smoother than the other analyses. Further comparisons made using collocated buoys showed that RSS was especially noisy in the tropics and that RTG-HR had winter biases near the Aleutians region during January and February 2007. The correlation results show that NCODA and, to a somewhat lesser extent, OSTIA are strongly tuned locally to buoy data. The results also show that grid spacing does not always correlate with analysis resolution. The AVHRR-only analysis is useful for climate studies because it is the only daily SST analysis that extends back to September 1981. Furthermore, comparisons of the AVHRR-only analysis and the AMSR+AVHRR analysis show that AMSR data can degrade the combined AMSR and AVHRR resolution in cloud-free regions while AMSR otherwise improves the resolution. These results indicate that changes in satellite instruments over time can impact SST analysis resolution.

Impact of GODAE products on nested HYCOM simulations of the West Florida Shelf

Nested non-assimilative simulations of the West Florida Shelf for 2004–2005 are used to quantify the impact of initial and boundary conditions provided by Global Ocean Data Assimilation Experiment ocean products. Simulations are nested within an optimum interpolation hindcast of the Atlantic Ocean, the initial test of the US Navy Coupled Ocean Data Assimilation system for the Gulf of Mexico, and a global ocean hindcast that used the latter assimilation system. These simulations are compared to one that is nested in a non-assimilative Gulf of Mexico model to document the importance of assimilation in the outer model. Simulations are evaluated by comparing model results to moored Acoustic Doppler Current Profiler measurements and moored sea surface temperature time series. The choice of outer model has little influence on simulated velocity fluctuations over the inner and middle shelf where fluctuations are dominated by the deterministic wind-driven response. Improvement is documented in the representation of alongshore flow variability over the outer shelf, driven in part by the intrusion of the Loop Current and associated cyclones at the shelf edge near the Dry Tortugas. This improvement was realized in the simulation nested in the global ocean hindcast, the only outer model choice that contained a realistic representation of Loop Current transport associated with basin-scale wind-driven gyre circulation and the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation. For temperature, the non-assimilative outer model had a cold bias in the upper ocean that was substantially corrected in the data-assimilative outer models, leading to improved temperature representation in the simulations nested in the assimilative outer models.