Navigation Season Research Articles

Length of Navigation Season in Current Conditions of Climate Change on the Northern Sea Route

Length of Navigation Season in Current Conditions of Climate Change on the Northern Sea Route

Changing Arctic Northern Sea Route and Transpolar Sea Route: A Prediction of Route Changes and Navigation Potential before Mid-21st Century

Sea ice concentration and thickness are key parameters for Arctic shipping routes and navigable potential. This study focuses on the changes in shipping routes and the estimation of navigable potential in the Arctic Northern Sea Route and Transpolar Sea Route during 2021–2050 based on the sea ice data predicted by eight CMIP6 models. The Arctic sea ice concentration and thickness vary among the eight models, but all indicate a declining trend. This study indicates that, under the two scenarios, the least-cost route will migrate more rapidly from the low-latitude route to the high-latitude route in the next 30 years, showing that the Transpolar Sea Route will be navigable for Open Water (OW) and Polar Class 6 (PC6) before 2025, which is advanced by nearly 10 years compared to previous studies. The sailing time will decrease to 16 and 13 days for OW and PC6 by 2050, which saves 3 days compared to previous studies. For OW, the navigable season is mainly from August to October, and the Northern Sea Route is still the main route, while for PC6, the navigable season is mainly from July to January of the following year, and the Transpolar Sea Route will become one of the important choices.

Trans-Arctic shipping routes expanding faster than the model projections

Rapid declines in Arctic sea ice coverage over the past four decades have increased the commercial feasibility of trans-Arctic routes. However, the historical changes in navigability of trans-Arctic routes remain unclear, and projections by global circulation models (GCMs) contain large uncertainties since they cannot simulate long-term Arctic sea ice changes. In this study, we determined the changes in trans-Arctic routes from 1979 to 2019 by combining two harmonized high-quality daily sea ice products. We found that the trans-Arctic routes are becoming navigable much faster than projected by the GCMs. The navigation season for open water (OW) vessels along the Northeast Passage (NEP) has lengthened from occasionally navigable in the 1980 s to 92 ± 15 days in the 2010 s. In contrast, previous GCM projections have suggested that navigability would not be achieved until the mid-21st century. The 90-day safety shipping area for OW vessels expanded by 35% during 1979–2018, reaching 8.28 million km2 in 2018, indicating an increasing rate of 0.08 ± 0.01 million km2 per year. The shortest trans-Arctic routes were also shifted further north than the model projections. Regular ships have been able to safely travel north along the islands in the NEP and transit through the M’Clure Strait in the Canadian Arctic Archipelago during the 2010 s, while previous studies have projected that this would not be feasible until the mid-21st century. We also found that the improved navigability of trans-Arctic routes enables commercial ships to transport approximately 33–66% (at the same load factor) more goods from East Asia to Europe during the Arctic shipping season than by the traditional Suez Canal route. These findings highlight the need for aggressive actions to develop mandatory rules that promote navigation safety and strengthen environmental protection in the Arctic.

Dynamics of Biogens to Estimate Ecological State of Coastal Waters of Southern Baikal

The issue of biogenic pollution of the coastal waters of Lake Baikal has been considered, an inventory of their sources performed, and an ecological estimation of the coast anthropogenic pollution factors given, which, in turn, indicate the increased content of biogens in coastal waters and, according to scholars, affect the growth of spirogyra (Spirogyra Link and Stigeoclonium Ktz).The studies performed have covered the southern coast of Lake Baikal from Kultuk Bay to Novosnezhnaya settlement since it is the most populated area with developed infrastructure, and the alluvial-accumulative coast has excellent beaches and good access roads to them. To estimate the biogen ingress, studies have been performed in the summer months (navigation season) and in March (ice period). The actual research results are represented in tabular and graphic material.The own research results have shown that the biogen content is rather significant; it is high during the ice period. The intake of domestic wastewater is supported by the high content of biogens in samples taken at the water’s edge also during the ice period. In summer, the biogen content in coastal waters may be higher than in the ice period, however, due to the navigation season currents, their concentrations are ‘washed out’.

Critical levels of the summer season in the mouth areas of the rivers of the Ob-Taz region

Situations in which water levels in summer fall below design (critical) marks for at least 10 days are considered dangerous phenomena. In such situations, navigation is hampered or stopped, resulting in significant economic damage. As our previous studies have shown, the mouth areas of the rivers of the Ob-Taz region that are used for navigation are prone to these dangerous phenomena. The aim of this work is to analyze the duration of the water level standing below the design marks and to estimate its characteristics for the navigation period at the posts Salekhard, Aksarka, Nyda, Nadym, Samburg, Sidorovsk, Tasovsky, Nahodka over an extended series of observations. Of the posts listed, the analysis has not previously covered Aksarka and Nadym data. Project levels have changed for some of the posts over the years, requiring updated estimates. The analysis was carried out on the basis of average daily levels at the posts for the period 1936-2013 published in the annual edition of the Water cadastre. If necessary, information on the water flow was included. Unfortunately, the quality of the data for most of the posts except Salekhard is not satisfactory due to numerous passes. The technique consists in the analysis of continuous level standing relative to the design values by specified intervals of duration. The results show that all the posts experienced levels lower than the design marks. In Nahodka it happened annually, in Nadym, Samburg, Sidorovsk — in 75.6 %, 68.3 %, 54.2 % of all the years of observations, respectively. Of all the cases of standing levels below the design mark, those of continuous standing with a dangerous duration were observed in Sidorovsk 71 %, Nadym 67.3 %, Samburg 41.1 %, Nahodka 40.0 %, Aksarka 26.1 %, Nyda 19.1 %, Salekhard 16.7 %. Only in Tasovsky were there no cases of dangerous duration. The largest number of years with dangerous cases fall on the 10-th anniversary of 1981-1990. In individual navigation seasons, two to four cases of continuous standing levels of dangerous duration were observed. At the same time, minimum average daily levels fell below critical values by a value from 189 cm (Nahodka) to 53 cm (Samburg). The maximum number of days with cases of dangerous duration in one season was in shares from the period of open channel from 91.4 % (Nahodka) to 36.6 % (Salekhard). The sum of days with levels below the design values for the season depends inversely on the amount of river flow.

‘Road of life’: changing navigation seasons and the adaptation of island communities in the Russian Arctic

ABSTRACT Adaptation of remote island communities in the Russian European Arctic to dramatic socioeconomic changes has been intensified by the impacts of climate changes in navigation seasons. Both the stability and duration of winter and summer navigation seasons and the start of the rasputitsa season, a shoulder period between the first two, are becoming more unpredictable and jeopardizing local mobility options. The ability to commute between neighboring settlements is an important aspect of island communities’ viability. Local mobility depends on well-functioning ice roads during wintertime, tugboats during the raputitsa season and on passenger vessels or smaller boats during summer navigation. To examine whether and how the island population of the Arkhangelsk region adapts to changing conditions and what factors shape adaptation options, we apply a community-based adaptation approach. The results from qualitative interviews with 32 residents and relevant stakeholders indicate that further development of the island communities will rely on sufficient mobility options. Incorporation of climate prognoses and local knowledge can improve the planning of mobility measures. Current and future community adaptation is challenged by out-migration, unpredictability in the rasputitsa season and lack of investment in island development.

Динамика и современное состояние ихтиофауны реки Амазар после строительства гидроузла ЦПК «Полярная»

The ecosystem of the Amazar River, the first large tributary of the Upper Amur, has experienced considerable anthropogenous influence over the last 20 years. The construction of the water reservoir in the middle reaches of the river was the most extensive interference into the ecosystem. In 2018-2019 integrated hydrobiological, hydrochemical, and ichthyological research was conducted in the Amazar River during the navigation season. The article analyzes the current state of ichthyocenosis as the most vulnerable component of the ecosystem of the middle reaches of the river Amazar and the newly formed reservoir. The results of the ichthyological survey have established the presence of 15 species from 7 families. The new data are compared with the results of previous research. The authors make a conclusion concerning the changes which have occurred in the species composition in the Amazar River over a 27-year period. The initial data was collected on the ichthyofauna of the recently constructed water reservoir. It predominantly includes coarse fish (Lagowski’s minnow (Phoxinus lagowskii), Amur gudgeon (Gobio cynocephalus), Amur bitterling (Rhodeus sericeus), and Amur sleeper (Perccottus glenii). Manchurian trout (Brachymystax lenok) and Upper Amur grayling (Thymallus grubii) were observed in the reservoir only during spawning and downstream migration. The findings show that the ichthyofauna of the reservoir is formed by non-target fish. The largest diversity of species was observed in the downstream water of the Amazar River. It was determined that spawning migration through the fish pass extended from the first decade of May through the first decade of June. It was observed that at the beginning migration was dominated by older Manchurian trout and grayling, while at the end of the migration period there were mainly cyprinids and immature Manchurian trout and grayling. The authors suggest that the size of migrating fish should be taken into consideration to ensure the effective operation of the fish pass. Absence of water flow control in the fish pass and a lack of consideration for the size of fish may result in both, insufficient water level for large mature salmon fish, and prohibitively high speed of the current for the small cyprinids.

“Polar Silk road”: project implementation and geo-economic interests of Russia and China

The authors focus on the Northern sea route of Russia, which is considered as a transcontinental Euro-Asian sea transport corridor. It is emphasized that the Arctic is not only a reliable source of energy security of Russia, but also an important geostrategic region. In this regard, the Northern sea route will be modernized even if the Chinese idea of the “Polar silk road” is not implemented at all. The role of China in the development of the transit highway project, which remains a reserve of the international transport system, is analyzed. There are some high expectations of Russia from the project, as the neighboring country is extremely cautious in its implementation, investing capital mainly in mining. In addition, there is a fear that the declared principles of the project implementation will lead, if not to the complete displacement of Russian business, then to a sharp weakening of its positions. This point of view is confirmed by the policy of Chinese investors to exercise strict control over the emerging transport arteries. Among the vulnerable points of the silk road project implementation are severe natural conditions, restrictions of the navigation season, insufficient capacity of the icebreaker fleet, economic sanctions of the United States and Western Europe, as well as the difficulties of creating a modern transport infrastructure along the sea route.

Scheduling Transit Voyages of Vessels of Various Ice Classes Across the Northern Sea Route

Abstract Main problem for scheduling vessel transit voyages through the Northern Sea Route is the difficulty in predicting distribution of ice boundaries in regions that cannot be overcome by individual ice classes of vessels. Scheduling of voyage is related to speed that vessels can develop and moment of time when vessels will be able to commence and complete passage safely through areas that are main obstacle and are blocking longest transit passage through the Northern Sea Route. This applies to voyages carried out by vessels navigating on their own and with support of icebreakers. Additional problem is lack of consistency of content of maps of ice cover, which can be used for vessels voyage planning through areas where ice cover occurs. Results of this research on influence of uncertain information related with time window of conditions favorable for navigation of vessels of different ice classes on schedule of theirs voyage on example of summer navigation season 2017 are presented in this work.

On Forecasting Navigation Seasons with Markov Chains

The transport network in the regions of the North of theRussian Federationbasically remains seasonal (waterways, winter roads). The duration of river shipping season, depending on the climatic conditions, is 110–160 days, and the time of operation of winter roads varies within 120–210 days. Under these conditions, the accuracy of predicting the beginning and end of shipping season for the northern rivers plays a very important role. The article proposes a method for forecasting the duration of ice phenomena in the areas of shipping routes based on the use of the mathematical apparatus of Markov chains. An estimate of probability of an accurate forecast is given, taking into account the conformity with Bayes theorem and related dependencies. Verification of the method on the basis of real data proved that the forecast accuracy and probability of its implementation were sufficient for timely and effective organisation of preparatory operations for next shipping season on northern navigable rivers.

Evaluation Criteria and Approach to Voyage Planning in Ice. Verification on the Example of German Ship Activity During the Second World War

AbstractVessels designed for navigation in ice can perform voyage with the assistance of icebreaker in the navigation season in case an ice cover area is less than 20%. Whereas the same vessels could carry out successfully completed voyage through the NSR with intensive icebreaker help at the ice-covered area lower than 42%. Navigation of the same vessel at ice covered area above 80% is possible with intensive icebreaker help, but it threatens to damage the hull, rudder or propeller.Excessive generalization of data analyzed may cause to wrong, even opposite conclusions. Using only basic statistical information in the form of average values and standard deviation may be not sufficient for the purpose of vessel’s voyage planning in areas covered with ice. Much more opportunities for the assessment of navigation in ice covered regions provides cumulative distribution, which should be related to the time and geographical space distribution. It allows to determine the duration of time window for given area covered with ice in a particular region and predetermined probability of its occurrence. It is thus possible to plan approximate date of departure and duration of voyage for assumed safety criteria. Also, it is possible to plan a number of consecutive voyages in a navigation season.Mathematical approach to voyage planning in ice based on a cumulative distribution is presented in the paper. It allows creation of an advisory computer application to support decision-making by the commander of a vessel. It will reduce the human factor in data processing and reduce possibility of making a mistake. By this way, can be enhanced the safety of maritime transport. Novell approach is verified on the example of historical data about the German Navy ship activity during the Second World War.

Allocation of Disputable Zones in the Arctic Region

As a result of the climate change the situation in Arctic area leads to several important consequences. On the one hand, fossil fuels can be exploited much easier than before. On the other hand, their excavation leads to serious potential threats to fishing by changing natural habitats which in turn creates serious damage to the countries’ economies. Another set of problems arises due to the extension of navigable season for shipping routes. Thus, there are already discussions on how should resources be allocated among countries. In Aleskerov and Victorova (An analysis of potential conflict zones in the Arctic Region, HSE Publishing House, Moscow, 2015) a model was presented analyzing preferences of the countries interested in natural resources and revealing potential conflicts among them. We present several areas allocation models based on different preferences over resources among interested countries. As a result, we constructed several allocations where areas are assigned to countries with respect to the distance or the total interest, or according to the procedure which is counterpart of the Adjusted Winner procedure. We consider this work as an attempt to help decision-making authorities in their complex work on adjusting preferences and conducting negotiations in the Arctic zone. We would like to emphasize that these models can be easily extended to larger number of parameters, to the case when some areas for some reasons should be excluded from consideration, to the case with ‘weighted’ preferences with respect to some parameters. And we strongly believe that such models and evaluations based on them can be helpful for the process of corresponding decision making.

Adaptive capacity in the context of increasing shipping activities: A case from Solovetsky, Northern Russia

ABSTRACTThis explorative study aims to understand how increasing shipping activities shape the local adaptive capacity of the coastal community, Solovetsky, on the Solovetsky Archipelago in the White Sea, Northern Russia. For centuries, shipping has been the main means of transportation in the White Sea and has played a key role in local livelihoods. Since the beginning of the twenty-first century, the community has experienced a dramatic increase in shipping development. Changes in the navigation season, tourism trends, and community development are just some of the drivers that have changed shipping patterns. The analysis of empirical material collected through interviews with 24 stakeholders and site observations reveal five salient determinants that influence the ability of the Solovetsky community to adapt to ship traffic growth: local involvement in the decision-making system, infrastructure, local values, the natural environment and economic resources. With careful investigation of these determinants’ implications and roles, we conclude that communities’ adaptive capacities are shaped not only by each determinant on its own, but also by the interlinkages between them.

Examining quick delivery at an affordable cost by the NSR/SCR-combined shipping in the age of Mega-ships

ABSTRACTThe Mega-ships, the maximum containerships represented by 20,000TEU-class (LOA:400m, Breadth: 60m, Draft: 16m) which are able to transit both the Malacca Strait and the Suez Canal, have emerged in 2013, aiming at lower shipping cost by economy of scale. At the same time, they inevitably increased port calls in a rotation to collect more cargo demand, resulting in the longer transit time than ever before. Taking this trend into account, the authors proposed the quick delivery scenario between East Asia and Northwest Europe by the NSR (Northern Sea Route)/SCR (Suez Canal Route)-combined shipping, of which 4,000 TEU ice-class containership transits the NSR during the summer season and the SCR in the wintertime, based on a year-round scheduled operation. The quick delivery scenario gives the shorter transit time at an affordable shipping cost depending on the NSR navigable season length. However, the quick delivery scenario cannot avoid uncertainties in navigation especially via the NSR in the summer season, due to rough weather, sea ice, low visibility and icing in the icy water section of the NSR. The authors preliminarily concluded that a year-round scheduled operation of the NSR/SCR-combined shipping will be secured, if the practical navigation schedule is appropriately prepared.

Transit navigation through Northern Sea Route from satellite data and CMIP5 simulations

Rapid Arctic sea ice decline over the last few decades opens new perspectives for Arctic marine navigation. Further warming in the Arctic will promote the Northern Sea Route (NSR) as an alternative to the conventional Suez or Panama Canal routes for intercontinental shipping. Here we use both satellite data and CMIP5 ensemble of climate models to estimate the NSR transit window allowing intercontinental navigation between Atlantic and Pacific regions. To this end, we introduce a novel approach to calculate start and end dates of the navigation season along the NSR. We show that modern climate models are able to reproduce the mean time of the NSR transit window and its trend over the last few decades. The selected models demonstrate that the rate of increase of the NSR navigation season will slow down over the next few decades with the RCP4.5 scenario. By the end of the 21st century ensemble-mean estimates show an increase of the NSR transit window by about 4 and 6.5 months according to RCP4.5 and 8.5, respectively. Estimated trends for the end date of the navigation season are found to be stronger compared to those for the start date.

ARCTIC «UPGRADE» OF V. V. PUTIN, PRESIDENT OF THE RUSSIAN FEDERATION

After establishment of the Soviet power the Arctic for seven decades had been in the focus of attention accomplishing the heroic, repressive, “educational”, economic, political and ideological functions. In 1930-1950 General Secretary of the Central Committee of the Bolshevik Communist Party I.V. Stalin created the first Soviet Arctic shield that included the economic and military strategic power, transport targeted to protection of entirety and security of the Soviet country. The Stalin’s large-scale project of Arctic development was made public in 1931 and was targeted to the enhanced protection of the polar waters by establishing the naval base on the Barents Sea. For implementation of this project the White Sea-Baltic canal was constructed. The Trust “Arktikugol” was established on the Spitsbergen Archipelago to supply coal to the Northern Navy Fleet. The sea expedition over the Northern Sea Route was also organized to prove the possibility of shipping along this route for one navigation season. Upon its successful completion the Chief Department “Sevmorput” was set up here. The epoch of airship construction was opened to explore the Arctic air expanses. Later on there were expeditions to the North Pole, deployment of army on the Chukotka Peninsula, new expeditions to high latitude terrains, construction of high-capacity icebreakers, aerodromes and military bases on the coast of the Arctic Ocean. Unfortunately, in the 1990s in the time of the Soviet Union breakup and perestroika many facilities of the Stalin’s Arctic Shield had been lost and ceased to exist. The early 21st century witnessed the second energetic and goal-oriented breakthrough into the Arctic region and establishment of the second Arctic Shield or bastion based on the key principles of the Soviet Arctic Shield or, in other words, its upgrade in the new conditions of the polycentric world, which is justly connected with the name of Russian President Putin. The interest to the Arctic was revived after V.V. Putin was elected in 2000 the RF President and this was observed against the sharp changes in the political and economic situation in the country. The underlying stimuli were the opening of large offshore hydrocarbon fields in the Arctic seas and global climate warming. From this time on when the interest to the Arctic was on the rise again the attitude of the Russian president and government to this region had changed enormously. Putin personally keep in the focus of his attention all Arctic issues. One of the strategic goals of the policy formulated by Putin is apparently the revival of the Russian Arctic, creation of own Arctic Shield understanding quite clearly that this would require construction anew of the great part of the Arctic infrastructure. This publication investigates in detail the steps of V.V. Putin taken for development of the Arctic ways.

Is the Northern Sea Route attractive to shipping companies? Some insights from recent ship traffic data

While the media vigorously propagates historic Northern Sea Route (NSR) transits and researchers demonstrate the viability of the NSR, current usage by the shipping industry has been neglected thus far. This study aims to analyse the current ship traffic at NSR using transit data and port call data. The results show that navigation season lasts for five months, and Arc4 and Arc5 vessels are used extensively. Some Asian countries are active participants in the transit activities. NSR seems to be more appealing to liquid, bulk and general cargo transportation. Currently, most activities are still domestic and destinational in nature. The paper provides real statistics that can add value to the viability analysis. It identifies key players of the transits, exhibits trade pattern at NSR, and presents facts that interest shipping companies.

Navigation seasons of the old Japanese missions to continental countries

Navigation seasons of the old Japanese missions to continental countries

Формирование плотов навигационной сплотки на средних и малых реках

Формирование плотов навигационной сплотки на средних и малых реках

The problem of the availability of nautical charts and publications on the Northern Sea Route

Abstract Statistical studies of marine accidents and unfortunate events in ice-covered areas in 1995–2004 and 2004–2011 showed a general lack of information from the area under the jurisdiction of the Russian Federation. The author’s research for the period 2004–2011 showed a large number of unfortunate events caused by lack of adequate provision of nautical charts, shortage of accurate position systems on board vessels as well as weak technical condition of these vessels. The author examined the problem of navigation safety on the Northern Sea Route in terms of availability of the official nautical charts and publications. The availability of official nautical publications supplied by global producers is more diverse and ambiguous than it is in case of nautical charts. Surprising is lack of Russian publications related to tides and unavailability of a guide for planning routes on Northern Sea Route issued by Russia in Russian and English languages. Global producers of official charts and nautical publications do not provide full range of information and recommend vessels the use of the products supplied by Russia. These products are issued in Russian. This is a serious impediment to their use and thus introduces privilege of ships’ crews who speak Russian. Northern Sea Route leads through regions that are not sufficiently explored. The Northern Sea Route Administration recommends guiding ships only on designated routes marked on maps and described in nautical publications. The currently hydrographic work is focused on determining new routes according to the spatial distribution of the ice massifs during the navigation season. However, this does not solve the problem of a comprehensive exploration of the Russian Arctic regions for the purpose of safe navigation on the customized routes.