Nature Of Threat Research Articles

Natural threat to the Turkish straits sea area: the mucilage

The Turkish Straits Sea Area comprises the Istanbul, the Canakkale Straits, and the Marmara Sea. The area is the most essential natural waterway connecting the continents of Asia and Europe. However, as of May 2021, it is polluted with Mucilage which is a slippery mass of microorganisms mostly clustered together, covering large areas, mainly in the Sea of Marmara and locally in the Turkish Straits. Unicellular organisms release fatty acids from the body under stressful environmental conditions. The Turkish Straits Sea area, which also connects the Black Sea and the Aegean Sea, constitutes a critical marine habitat among marine species. On the one hand, ballast operations create a sticky surface on the ship's hull and the underwater structure in contact with water. At the same time, there is also the necessity of cooling the ship's machinery with seawater. Ship cooling systems use seawater to cool the ship's engine block, while filtration prevents damage to the system. However, the mucilage effect affects the control of the vessel by causing clogging of the filters that serve to protect the system. The fact that the water taken by filtration is affected by Mucilage, clogging, and involving the outer surface of the ship affects the safety of the vessel at a high level. This research article tries to explain the damage and effects of Mucilage on ships sailing in the Turkish Straits.

Understanding public service supply chain management: a systematic literature review

The complexity of delivering public services under dynamically changing operating conditions causes uncertainty in those processes. Economic and social crises, pandemics, natural and technological threats and local armed conflicts add more layers of complexity and force governments to seek ways to ensure the continuous supply of these services. Therefore, researchers indicate that a supply chain management approach could increase the efficiency and quality of public service implementation processes. However, the scattered research that exists on this topic occurs in limited areas of public governance. Therefore, this paper aims to understand the importance of supply chain management in public service delivery processes, develop the public service supply chain model, analyse the evolution of the research and identify research streams in this exploratory area. A systematic literature review based on the PRISMA methodology serves to achieve this purpose. The paper defines public service supply chain management as a synchronised process of co-creating value in public networks with its basis in relationship management, in which each actor can be both a supplier and an end-user. This paper also presents a bibliographic visualisation of research issues in public service supply chain management (PSSCM) and identifies eight major research streams in this area.

Assessment of working conditions and risks caused by the COVID-19 pandemic: results of an online survey of personnel of medical organizations

Introduction. In a pandemic, doctors and other staff working alongside them are among those at risk of infection on a daily basis.Aim. To identify aspects of the COVID-19 pandemic that are relevant to healthcare workers.Materials and methods. An online survey was conducted among employees of healthcare organizations. The study included 269 people, the analysis was carried out in the R software environment. The first group included medical workers who had direct contact with patients with COVID-19; the second group – workers whose contact with the infected was not recorded.Results and discussion. The results of the survey were analyzed both for the sample as a whole and for groups. In the survey, 84.8% of respondents expressed concern about the pandemic, and among contacts, anxiety was 3 times more common than among non-contacts (OR = 3.07 [1.14; 10.43]). Respondents rated their awareness of SARS-CoV-2 highly: the contact group was more confident in the completeness of the information provided than the non-contact group. The preparedness of clinics for a pandemic was not highly rated. Contact persons – 84%, non-contact persons – 71% felt a high risk of infection at the workplace. A more pronounced lack of protective equipment was felt by respondents from the group of contact workers. Self-restriction of social contacts did not become a popular and statistically significant measure: health workers limited their contacts in 37.9% of cases, among them contacting – 55.4%, non-contacting – 44.6%. In the survey, it was proposed to assess what causes concern: the risk of isolation from the family and social environment was noted by 76.2% of respondents; fear of the danger of the disease itself - 36.2%; the consequences of one’s own infection for the well-being of the family and professional activities, as well as society as a whole - 34.8%; the risk of infecting family members and relatives is 33.0%.Conclusions. These studies can provide significant assistance in planning health care to repel future threats of a similar nature.

Short-Term Climate Prediction over China Mainland: An Attempt Using Machine Learning, Considering Natural and Anthropic Factors

Climate extremes pose significant natural threats to socioeconomic activities. Accurate prediction of short-term climate (STC) can provide relevant departments with warnings to effectively reduce this threat. To accurately predict STC in China, this study utilizes machine learning algorithms, particularly the random forest (RF) model, to evaluate the role of both natural and anthropogenic factors. Monthly temperature and precipitation data from 160 meteorological stations spanning China, as well as natural climate factors and an economic activity index, were obtained to perform a seasonal hindcast of air temperature and precipitation observed from 1979 to 2018. Our focus was to predict the seasonal mean temperature and precipitation, specifically the summer (June, July, and August (JJA)) and winter (December, January, and February (DJF)) air temperature and precipitation anomalies using forecast factors from the preceding season. Results show that a comprehensive consideration of both natural and anthropogenic effects provides a more accurate fit to the observed climate trends compared to using only one factor. When both factors were integrated, the model scores (coefficient of determination) exceeded 0.95, close to 1.00, which is significantly higher than those of natural (0.86 for temperature, 0.85 for precipitation) or anthropogenic (0.90 for temperature and 0.50 for precipitation) factors alone. Furthermore, we also attempted to predict similar components for 2019 and 2020. The average relative error between predictions and observations was less than 10%, indicating that this integrated model’s performance exhibited a significant improvement in predicting the STC. The findings of this study underscore the importance of accounting for both natural and anthropogenic factors in predicting climate trends to inform sustainable decision-making in China.

Economic security of Ukraine under the destructive influence of exogenous determinants

Purpose. To design a Methodical Approach to assessing the level of economic security of Ukraine under the destructive influence of exogenous determinants and verification of the results of its application. Methodology. The methods of analysis and synthesis are used to substantiate the functional components and aspects of ensuring the economic security of the state and to develop a system of indicators for their assessment. The index method is used in developing an integral indicator of the level of economic security of the state. Findings. It is proved that for transitive economies the impact on economic security of geopolitical and geo-economics threats of an exogenous nature, which are significantly strengthened in the conditions of globalization, is decisive. The necessity is substantiated to develop a methodology for assessing the economic security of Ukraine in the direction of developing Methodical approaches that allow providing a thorough assessment of the actual determinants of economic security, which primarily include the impact of globalization processes and the escalation of military-political threats. A Methodical Approach to the determination of indicators of economic security of the state is proposed, which is based on the separation of functional components and aspects of provision in the structure of economic security of the state. A system of indicators for evaluating elements of economic security is developed, taking into account the relationship between the values and dynamics of indicators with the influence of exogenous determinants. A toolkit for assessing the level of economic security of the state is proposed, which provides for the calculation of the integral indicator of the level of economic security based on the generalization of the values of indicators of the state of its functional components and aspects of provision. The integral indicator of the level of economic security of Ukraine was calculated during 2006–2020. Based on the analysis of the dynamics of the integral indicator of the level of Ukraine’s economic security and its component indicators, key regularities in their absolute and relative transformations are revealed. Originality. A Methodical Approach to assessing the level of economic security of Ukraine in terms of destructive influence of exogenous determinants is proposed basing on the calculation of an integral indicator, which allows formulating conclusions regarding the state and trends of the transformation of economic security of Ukraine. Practical value. The obtained results create the basis for determining the priorities of ensuring the economic security of Ukraine, which should be both overcoming the destructive influence on the economic development of exogenous determinants, and using the opportunities created in the internal and external environment of the country to prevent threats to the economic security of the state.

The Geographical Analysis of Environmental Threats to Natural Plants in the Sharbazher District

The Sharbazher district is rich in natural vegetation with (49%) of the area consisting of forest and other natural vegetation belts. Protecting this vegetation belt is an environmental necessity, as it has faced several environmental threats in the last two decades. The study identified environmental threats and evaluated the measures and efforts taken to protect this vegetation belt. The research used a (reading) method, followed by analytical and comparative methods. Field surveys of the study area were conducted on several different dates, data were collected and scenes were observed. The study found that along with natural threats, manmade threats are more significantly affecting the vegetation ecology of the region. Rainfall fluctuations have had a more notable impact on short vegetation and pastures. From summer to early winter, an environmental instability occurred that resulted in damaging riverside vegetation and streams, many of which during the years (20172022-) about (2310) trees were cut down, most of which were (Oak) trees, but according to the study’s estimation, more than (16000) trees were cut down during the same period. Until now, charcoal is made in coal furnaces from natural forest trees and this is carried out without official permission, during the years (20172022-) more than (20,000 acres) of weed and natural forests in the region have been burned. Also during the years (20012020-), there have been changes in the vegetation belts and land cover of the region, the area of dense and medium forest belts has increased, but the area of open forest belts has decreased, and there have been major changes in the land area of human settlements. The study outlines ways to protect the vegetation belt and emphasises the enforcement of Implemented laws on the protection of plants and forests. Keywords: Natural plants, Environmental threats, Forest law, Sharbazher district.

Natural radioactivity for soil samples in primary schools at Najaf city, Iraq

Natural radiation is the most significant contribution to the annual exposure of the world population, making it essential to assess the quantity of natural radiation in soil. This research aims to assess the level of natural radioactivity within the soil samples taken from primary schools in Al-Najaf, Iraq using gamma-ray spectroscopy. Specific activity was determined for the 238U series (214Bi), 232Th series (218Tl), 40K, and 235U. Twelve radiological hazard indices were computed. SPSS software version 23.0 was employed for data statistical analyzes to include average, standard error, standard deviation, box plot, frequency distribution, and Pearson's correlation coefficient. The results of the concentrations of 238U, 232Th, and 40K, were drawn using a geographic information system (GIS) technique. The results showed that the average values and standard error of 238U, 232Th, 40K, and 235U were 20.1 ± 0.65 Bq/kg, 11.5 ± 0.22 Bq/kg, 330.9 ± 7.1 Bq/kg, and 0.926 ± 0.03 Bq/kg, respectively. The results of 238U, 232Th, 40K, and 235U were compared to the average world value. This indicates that some schools' 238U and 40K levels had exceeded the acceptable worldwide levels. At the same time, the results of radiological hazard indices were seen to be within the permissible worldwide levels. As a result, the elementary schools under study can be argued that they are relatively free of natural radiation threats. The resulted data of the current research might be contributed to the database of natural radioactivity levels and radiation doses received by those who come into touch with these schools.

A review of gray whales (Eschrichtius robustus) on their wintering grounds in Mexican waters

The Eastern North Pacific gray whale (Eschrichtius robustus) is one population of large cetacean that has recovered from depletion resulting from commercial harvest in the mid- to late-1800s. It is believed that this population may be approaching, or possibly exceeding its carrying capacity as suggested by recent increases in mortality of all age and sex classes. Research on the breeding biology and phenology of gray whales that spend the winter in the coastal waters and lagoons of Baja California, Mexico has been conducted for many years. These studies contribute valuable information on the reproductive biology of this species, and the importance of their coastal lagoon habitats to their reproductive success. This paper reviews and summarises historical exploitation, conservation measures, the findings of research conducted on gray whales in their winter breeding range, potential natural and anthropogenic threats to this population, and makes recommendations for future research and monitoring. This review concentrates on the findings of research conducted since the mid-1970s.

Explaining preparedness towards hydrometeorological hazards. An exploratory study in Mexico

This study explores how the threat and appraisal constructs proposed by the Protection Motivation Theory affect preparedness behavior towards hydrometeorological hazards contingent to the confidence on the governmental support, the individual’s social vulnerability, and his/her previous experience with a natural threat. Data from an online survey of residents of two Mexican coastal counties was used to provide empirical support to the conceptual model developed. The analytical results of structural equation modelling indicate that a high confidence in the authorities’ support has a non-significant effect on preventive behaviors but negatively affects the perceived coping selfefficacy of socially vulnerable individuals. Additionally, preparedness behavior is triggered by risk or coping factors depending on the previous experience with an hydrometeorological hazard. These findings advise to 1) better manage the expectations of socially disadvantaged residents regarding the governmental assistance by improving their self-protection ability towards natural threats, and 2) offset the decreased risk perception of households who are exposed to hydrometeorological warnings regularly. The main limitation of this study is the small purposing sample used to empirically validate the model proposed. An extensive study based on a probabilistic sample of coastal communities of Mexico is recommended to confirm the findings of this exploratory research.

Fasciolous invasion as a sanitary and hygienic threat to the population and animal husbandry in the subjects of the Caspian region of Russia

Introduction. WHO considers human fascioliasis to be a global epidemic threat of a parasitic nature.
 Materials and methods. The studies were carried out using methods of in vivo diagnostics used in medical and veterinary parasitology (the method of successive washings of feces; the Fülleborn method or the flotation-sedimentation method by Demidov) in relation to samples of feces and soils. In total, in six subjects of Russia to study the spread of fascioliasis in animals in the conditions of slaughterhouses, there were examine the liver in 1800 heads of slaughter sheep, 700 heads of goats, 1000 heads of cows and only 6000 soil samples for the detection of Fasciola hepatica eggs.
 In 2011–2019, medical services of 6 subjects of the Caspian region in 21 settlements carried out scatological diagnostics of the population aged 8 to 65 years, in the amount of 25 thousand people, to clarify the incidence of human fascioliasis. The results of the studies were statistically processed according to the method of N.A. Plokhinsky using the software Microsoft Excel 2008. The occurrence index – the percentage of individuals or eggs of F. hepatica in relation to the total number of examined objects – was based on monitoring and analysis of reports from regional divisions of the Federal Service 
 for Supervision in Protection of the Rights of Consumer and Man Wellbeing (Rospotrebnadzor) and the Department of Veterinary Medicine of the Ministry of Agriculture of Russia for 2011–2019.
 Results. Coproovoscopy of 25 thousand samples of faeces for the presence of eggs of the pathogen of fascioliasis, taken from the population of 21 cities of the Caspian region of the Russian Federation, revealed their absence. The trend in the index of occurrence of goat fascioliasis in 2011–2019. had an annual growth trend of 0.03%; in sheep by 0.06%; in cattle by 0.05%, which also characterizes the lack of control measures.
 In 6 Republics of the Caspian region, the indices of occurrence and abundance of fascioliasis in goats, sheep and cows increased by 2–2.5 times, which indicates the threat of invasion to the development of livestock industries. Soil samples taken for research were contaminated with invasive elements of Fasciola hepatica in 100% of cases.
 Conclusion. The occurrence and abundance indices of F. hepatica eggs were found to be 0, which indicates epidemic well-being in relation to zoonosis. Research conducted indicate to the gain in the incidence index of fascioliasis in goats, sheep, and cows. The 100% contamination of the territories of rural pastures and remote mountain pastures with invasive elements of Fasciola hepatica is a biological and sanitary-hygienic threat to livestock and the population of the Caspian region of Russia.

The Mazarrón II Wreck (Murcia, Spain). Management of human and natural threats

The two Phoenician shipwrecks, Mazarrón I and Mazarrón II, discovered in 1988 and 1994 respectively, are highly significant remains of underwater archaeology. While Mazarrón I has been lifted and transferred to the ARQUA Museum in Cartagena, Mazarrón II has remained in situ, protected by a metal structure and meshes placed on the sediments. However, monitoring has shown that the structures are probably deteriorating as a result of human action. A project is planned to safely extract the wreck in order to display it in the ARQUA Museum in the future.

Range restriction, climate variability and human‐related risks imperil lizards world‐wide

AbstractAimsIdentifying major reasons for species imperilment is a necessary step for conservation, but the degree to which we can generalize is hard for species‐rich yet less‐studied taxa, such as lizards. Here, we aim to bridge the gap by providing comprehensive analyses of the correlates and processes of species extinction and threats for global lizards.LocationGlobal.Time periodCurrent.Major taxa studiedLizards.MethodsWe compiled a dataset comprising extinction risk status, six intrinsic traits and seven extrinsic factors for 5256 lizard species. We carried out binomial distribution tests for 43 families and seven realms to check the non‐randomness in species extinction risk and used phylogenetic linear regressions to identify the key factors that relate to the extinction proneness of lizards and species subgroups. Based on the International Union for Conservation of Nature (IUCN) threat assessment, we identified major threats for global lizards and for major families and regions.ResultsWe found strong evidence of taxonomic and geographical non‐randomness in the extinction risk of lizards. Geographical range size, human footprint and density, insular endemism, temperature and precipitation seasonality, and body size were key predictors of extinction risk, and the first three factors were also important across families and realms. Moreover, newly described species were more likely to have a restricted range size and a higher extinction risk. Globally, the most detrimental threat was habitat destruction, while overexploitation, species invasion and climate change varied widely in importance among species groups.Main conclusionsOverall, we highlight the detrimental influences of range restriction, climate variability and anthropogenic threats to species persistence. We suggest that lizards are potentially at high risk of extinction owing to widespread human disturbance and that species with extinction‐prone traits require conservation prioritization. Moreover, lizards of different families and regions require different management strategies because of variation in extinction‐risk correlates and threats.

Cetaceans of the oceanic northern Gulf of Mexico: Distributions, group sizes and interspecific associations

The Gulf of Mexico is a subtropical ocean basin with a diverse oceanic cetacean community. Cetacean research in the Gulf of Mexico has been driven by mandates of the US Marine Mammal Protection Act as well as concerns over the rapidly expanding oil and natural gas industry and related potential threats (e.g. seismic surveys, increased ship traffic, oil spills). Previously, cetacean distribution and abundances for specific Gulf of Mexico areas or species have been described based on work over periods of several years, and recently abundance estimates were made for the entire oceanic northern Gulf of Mexico (1996-2001). For each cetacean species, the paper describes distribution, group size, associated sea surface temperature and water depth and interspecific associations based on surveys conducted over 11 years that span the entire northern Gulf of Mexico. This dataset is the most comprehensive to date for the oceanic northern Gulf. Nine ship surveys totalling 45,462km of effort were conducted during spring seasons (1991-2001) in continental shelf-edge and oceanic waters ( 100m) of the northern Gulf of Mexico. Eighteen species were identified from 1,868 sightings. Cetaceans were found throughout the area although some species had localised distributions or occurred in restricted ranges of water depths. Spinner dolphins (Stenella longirostris) had the largest mean group size (n = 40, x – = 151.5, SE = 30.90), followed by melon-headed whales (Peponocephala electra), clymene dolphins (S. clymene), pantropical spotted dolphins (S. attenuata), Fraser’s dolphins (Lagenodelphis hosei) and striped dolphins (S. coeruleoalba) (range of means 46.1-99.6). Beaked whales (Ziphiidae), Bryde’s whales (Balaenoptera edeni/brydei), sperm whales (Physeter macrocephalus) and pygmy/dwarf sperm whales (Kogia spp.) were found in the smallest groups (x – < 3). Twenty-seven sightings (1.4% of all sightings) were composed of two cetacean species. Common bottlenose dolphins (Tursiops truncatus) were recorded in mixedspecies groups with more species than any other cetacean. Forty-five cetacean sightings (2.4% of all sightings) were associated with at least one bird species, and 21 (1.1% of all sightings) were associated with schools of fish. Contrary to previous reports, pantropical spotted dolphins were observed in association with both fish (including surface tunas) and seabirds, although to a lesser extent than for other tropical oceans. No mixed pantropical spotted and spinner dolphin groups were sighted despite their regular co-occurrence in other tropical oceans.

Population distribution and causes of mortality of smooth-coated otters, Lutrogale perspicillata, in Singapore.

Smooth-coated otters (Lutrogale perspicillata) were transient in Singapore before one resident family group was observed in 1998, presumably having recolonized from Peninsular Malaysia. A population survey in 2017 revealed a minimum of 11 groups and 79 individuals. Since then, movements of otter groups within urban areas have led to increasing numbers of human-otter encounters, including conflicts. We determined the current abundance, population structure, and distribution of smooth-coated otters in Singapore. We assessed seven sampling zones nationwide through verified sighting records and social media. Mortality records from 2019 to 2021 were sourced from the Otter Working Group and Wildlife Reserves Singapore. In early 2021, there were a minimum of 17 groups and 170 individuals. Groups ranged from 2 to 24 individuals. Smooth-coated otters occupy coastal areas, waterways, reservoirs, and sites within the city center in urban gardens and ponds. Following territorial conflicts at waterways, smooth-coated otter groups moved into the urban matrix. Vehicle collisions are the main cause of mortality and are frequent at dams separating freshwater and coastal habitats. While there is a clear increase in smooth-coated otter numbers since 2017, there remain multiple natural and human-caused threats to otter persistence.

ENVIRONMENTAL POLICING AND ITS ROLE IN BEHAVIOR DEVELOPMENT ENVIRONMENT FOR INDIVIDUALS

Environmental issues and their protection have received great attention, both nationally and internationally, especially with the increasing severity of natural and industrial environmental threats that have led to an increase in environmental pollution.Therefore, it requires concerted efforts whether government or community members, In order to protect the environment, which requires taking all means, including the imposition of penalties and violations and environmental laws against any trespassing on the environment, and this issue requires the presence of a monitoring body and a specialized punishment called environmental police. From the above, it can be said that it is necessary to establish the environmental police to spread environmental culture gradually among citizens. At the same time, act decisively and enforce the law against all violating the environment, and for the environmental police to be effective, it must be made up of individuals university specialists in the field of the environment, who know perfectly the components of the environment and they are concerned with protecting it, in addition to flexibility in the management and dissemination of environmental awareness between individuals

Justification of scientific approaches to the management of the territories of national natural parks in modern conditions

Creating nature reserves and objects is an effective way of preserving rare and endangered species of plants and animals and natural complexes that can serve as benchmarks of natural ecosystems for science and practice. Objects of the natural reserve fund, such as national natural parks and nature reserves, are essential elements of the ecological framework of the country, and the issue of effective management of such territories is relevant, especially given the ratification of the Association Agreement between Ukraine and the European Union. The article aims to substantiate the optimal strategies and recommendations for the effective management of national natural parks in Ukraine to ensure their nature protection, research, and educational mission, as well as to promote the development of tourism and improve the population's quality of life. During the analysis of the management of the territories of national natural parks, it was established that it does not meet the requirements of modernity due to an inefficient system of state management, violations of environmental protection legislation, insufficient financing of measures to preserve the nature reserve fund, biological and landscape diversity, weak implementation of recreational potential. It was determined that the main problems are the need for actual management plans, land management projects regarding the organization, and establishing boundaries of the territories of the nature reserve fund for national natural parks that are practically underdeveloped. In connection with this, a large part of the parks needs to have established boundaries. In the structure of the area of the national natural parks of Ukraine, economic zones prevail (on average 60-90% of the park area), while the average value of the area of the protected zone, as a rule, does not exceed 20%. It was established that practical management activities depend significantly on the awareness of the importance of national natural parks for the country's nature protection system. Therefore, the reform of the management of nature protection territories implemented by the government of Ukraine to preserve landscape and biological diversity is timely. Based on this, during the research, it was established that the main aspects of effective management of the territories of national natural parks in modern conditions should be legal establishment of park status, development, and implementation of a management plan, drawing up a nature protection strategy with the identification of critical areas, recreation, and education, scientific research, provision financing, cooperation and communication, monitoring, and evaluation. The main goal of ensuring effective management of national natural parks is to preserve nature and ensure access for people with minimal impact on nature. Such management should be implemented through developing and implementing strategies and development plans that consider the preservation of natural resources and the needs of society in recreation, public opinion, protection from natural and anthropogenic threats, and international standards. Keywords: nature reserve fund; land protection, national natural parks, sustainable development, natural resources, management activities.

Large-Scale In Vitro Propagation and Ex Vitro Adaptation of the Endangered Medicinal Plant Eryngium maritimum L.

The endangered medicinal plant Eryngium maritimum L. faces significant natural and anthropogenic threats. Therefore, in vitro propagation is recommended for both conservation and commercial purposes. The aim of the study was to develop a series of protocols for seed disinfection, in vitro multiplication and rooting, and ex vitro and field adaptation. For explant disinfection, the length and temperature of three consecutive disinfectants were investigated. Macrosalt modifications of MS medium and plant growth regulator addition to media effect on axillary bud propagation rate and rooting was studied. Survival and leaf growth during ex vitro and field adaptation in response to potting media, pot cell diameter, and light spectrum were tested. Seeds treated with diluted detergent at 40 °C for 180 min, followed by 0.01% KMnO4 for 3 h and commercial bleach for 11 min, achieved a lower rate of contamination and high germination rate. Axillary bud proliferation and rooting were enhanced by reducing nitrogen content in media and adding plant growth regulators. Potting media and pot size affect survival and growth ex vitro. Timely transplantation to field conditions before overwintering increases plantlet survival. In the present work, a suitable foundation is laid to scaleup the production of E. maritimum by micropropagation.

Large-scale grid-based detection in occupancy surveys of a threatened small mammal: A comparison of two non-invasive methods

Monitoring the status and trends of wildlife is key to understand how species respond to natural and human-derived threats, and to evaluate and improve conservation planning and management. Large-scale, grid-based assessment of species distribution, abundance, and population trends over time is an important component of biodiversity monitoring. However, such assessments still present important challenges related, for instance, to how the choice of the sampling method may affect species detectability and thus, overall data accuracy. Here, we address this issue, focusing on the Cabrera vole (Microtus cabrerae), a threatened small mammal, listed in the Habitats Directive (Annexes II and IV), hence requiring regular evaluation of its population status and trends. We used occupancy modelling to estimate method-specific detection probability of the species over large-scale, grid-based (10 × 10 km2) surveys relying on two non-invasive sampling techniques: sign surveys and owl pellet analysis. Results provided evidence for a greater cost-effectiveness of sign surveys compared to owl pellet analysis for detecting the species in occupancy surveys, suggesting that large-scale population monitoring of Cabrera voles (or other species also producing easily identifiable signs of their presence) may fairly rely on sign-surveys. Overall, our study supported the view that while owl pellet analysis provides a valuable option when the aim is to assess small mammal assemblages (i.e. multiple species) in a region, other complementary methods may be required to increase the detection probability of certain species that because of their secretive behaviour or rarity remain less predated by owls. We thus argue that the choice of the sampling method should be context-dependent and evaluated based on the study aims, the surveyed area (i.e. local factors), the target species (i.e. life history traits) and the available resources. Based on our results we recommend that researchers and managers explore survey-design trade-offs to ensure the proposed designs have sufficient power to detect real population trends.

Regional-scale assessment of soil functions and resilience indicators: Accounting for change of support to estimate primary soil properties and their uncertainty

Researchers and stakeholders are increasingly interested in evaluating soil functions and their relationships with soil physical resilience to prevent and mitigate natural and anthropogenic threats. This study aims to assess the effect of changing spatial support on estimating primary soil properties that are then used to map compound indicators of soil functions. The specific objectives are to determine the epistemic uncertainty associated with the estimates and assess the impact of accounting for the change-of-support when scaling up from the point- to the block-resolution.The study area is the southern Italian region of Campania, which is renowned for its high-quality agricultural and dairy products but is increasingly subject to soil disturbance and degradation. Seven primary soil properties (sand and clay contents, oven-dry soil bulk density, calcium carbonate, rock fragment, soil organic matter, and pH) were estimated over 75-m × 75-m blocks by jointly analyzing more than 3,000 point-based soil measurements with gridded terrain attributes by using multi-collocated block cokriging. Two compound soil indicators were then assessed from the maps of these soil properties: 1) the soil organic carbon stock (SOCS) in the entire region of Campania, and 2) the recharge transit time in the Sele alluvial plain where information about the mean annual depth to groundwater is available.The change-of-support proved to affect the total variance and the assessment of the extremes in the probability distributions of the primary soil variables. Our results emphasize that negative consequences occur when the change-of-support problem, upscaling in particular, is overlooked as happens when analyzing environmental data, especially for planning purposes and in the case of environmental risk assessment.

Socio-ecological gap analysis to forecast species range contractions for conservation

Conservation requires both a needs assessment and prioritization scheme for planning and implementation. Range maps are critical for understanding and conserving biodiversity, but current range maps often omit content, negating important metrics of variation in populations and places. Here, we integrate a myriad of conditions that are spatially explicit across distributions of carnivores to identify gaps in capacity necessary for their conservation. Expanding on traditional gap analyses that focus almost exclusively on quantifying discordance in protected area coverage across a species' range, our work aggregates threat layers (e.g., drought, human pressures) with resources layers (e.g., protected areas, cultural diversity) to identify gaps in available conservation capacity (ACC) across ranges for 91 African carnivores. Our model indicated that all species have some portion of their range at risk of contraction, with an average of 15 percentage range loss. We found that the ACC differed based on body size and taxonomy. Results deviated from current perceptions of extinction risks for species with an International Union for Conservation of Nature (IUCN) threat status of Least Concern and yielded insights for species categorized as Data Deficient. Our socio-ecological gap analysis presents a geospatial approach to inform decision-making and resource allocation in conservation. Ultimately, our work advances forecasting dynamics of species' ranges that are increasingly vital in an era of great socio-ecological change to mitigate human-wildlife conflict and promote inclusive carnivore conservation across geographies.