Despite a large array of knowledge about triggers and drivers of phytoplankton dynamics in the sea coastal waters there is still no comprehensive understanding of what combinations of hydro-physical, hydro-chemical and biotic characteristics induce harmful algal blooms (HABs), which nowadays expand globally under the conditions of warm weather, high irradiance, and reduced turbulent water mixing in the absence of wind. Recent laboratory experiments highlighted the importance of abiotic (physico-chemical) stability as a generic environmental feature responsible for various modes of plankton dynamics, including chaotic behavior. In contrast to experimental studies, until recently abiotic stability in natural estuarine and coastal ecosystems was considered a rare phenomenon, which is particularly difficult to detect and measure. In this study, we aimed at measuring stability of the major physico-chemical parameters in a coastal marine ecosystem and assessing its impact on the algal proliferation. We hypothesized that abiotic stability in natural environments can eventually facilitate HABs. To test this hypothesis, we used the database collected in the southern Baltic Sea coastal waters between 1988 and 2016. We analyzed long-term trends in phytoplankton composition and abundance, with the focus on bloom-forming dinoflagellates. Fifteen dinoflagellate bloom events were registered during the three decades of study; nearly all blooms were dominated by the Prorocentrum species, most often by the mixotrophic P. cordatum. Stability of eleven abiotic characteristics (water temperature and salinity, pH, Secchi depth, concentrations of chlorophyll a, total phosphorus, total nitrogen, nitrite, nitrate, ammonium, and TN/TP ratio) was measured using the ‘synchronized’ and ‘shifted-data’ approaches. Our results verified the proposed research hypothesis and demonstrated that the dinoflagellate blooms were usually bound to higher stability of water temperature, pH, and concentrations of nitrogen compounds. Thus, we showed that abiotic stability, but not just the critical absolute values of the environmental parameters, can induce HABs. However, high adaptability and plasticity of feeding strategies employed by the dominant mixotrophic dinoflagellates hamper the exposure of clear correlations between stability of nutrients concentration and the magnitude of blooms. These findings allow assuming that the ‘paradox of chaos’ – the phenomenon, which was originally discovered in the abiotically stable experimental ecosystems, can also manifest itself in natural sea coastal waters, demonstrating how the complex biotic interactions drive plankton dynamics and promote HABs in the absence of external abiotic triggers.
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