Natural Rubber Price Research Articles

Analysis of Factors Affecting Indonesian Natural Rubber Exports

The aim of this research is to determine and analyze the short-term and long-term influence of Indonesian natural rubber production variables, international consumption, and international natural rubber prices on Indonesian natural rubber exports. This research was carried out using Time series data for the period 1989-2022 using numerical calculations of research variables using the Error Correction Model (ECM) analysis method assisted by EViews12 software. The population used in this research is information on Indonesian Natural Rubber Exports for 1989-2022. As a result of the analysis and discussion that has been carried out, it can be concluded that: Indonesian Natural Rubber Production has a positive influence in both the long and short term on Indonesian Natural Rubber Exports. International Natural Rubber Consumption in the long term has an insignificant influence with a negative correlation on the volume of Indonesian Natural Rubber Exports. International Natural Rubber Prices in both the long and short term have an insignificant influence with a positive correlation on Indonesian Natural Rubber Exports.

Forecasting natural rubber prices using commodity market indicators: a machine learning approach

Forecasting natural rubber prices using commodity market indicators: a machine learning approach

Forecasting natural rubber prices using commodity market indicators: a machine learning approach

Forecasting natural rubber prices using commodity market indicators: a machine learning approach

Factors affecting natural rubber prices in Thailand

Factors affecting natural rubber prices in Thailand

Factors affecting natural rubber prices in Thailand.

Factors affecting natural rubber prices in Thailand.

ANALYSIS OF THE POTENTIAL COMPETITIVENESS OF NATURAL RUBBER EXPORTS IN THE GLOBAL MARKET (COMPARATIVE STUDY IN ITRC COUNTRIES: INDONESIA, THAILAND, AND MALAYSIA)

The objectives of this study are 1) to find out how the potential competitiveness of Indonesian, Thailand, and Malaysian natural rubber exports in the global market compares in terms of their comparative advantages 2) to find out how the comparison of the effect of the exchange rate, production, and the international price of natural rabber on the competitiveness of Indonesian, Thailand, and Malaysian natural rubber export in the global market. The method used in this study is a quantitative method with Revealed Comparative Advantage (RCA) and Revealed Symmetric Comparative Advantage (RSCA) analysis tools to analyze the export competitiveness of Indonesian, Thailand, and Malaysian natural rubber based on their comparative advantage, and multiple linear regression with the ordinary least square (OLS) method. 1) The results of this study indicate that for Indonesia the average competitiveness of natural rubber exports is 0.9330, while Thailand is 0.9338, and Malaysia is 0.7763. 2) The results of multiple linear regression show that the exchange rate and production variables have no significant effect on the competitiveness of Indonesian and Thailand natural rubber exports, while the international price variable for natural rubber has a significant effect on the competitiveness of Indonesian and Thailand natural rubber exports. And for Malaysia, it shows that the three variables, the exchange rate, production, and international prices of natural rubber have a significant effect on the competitivenss of Malaysia’s natural rubber exports.
 
 Keywords: ITRC country’s natural rubber export competitiveness, Exchange Rates, Production, and International Price of Natural Rubber.

Forecasting Malaysian Natural Rubber Prices: An Analysis of Trends and Factors Influencing Price Fluctuations

Recently, the natural rubber industry has grown to be one of Malaysia's most significant economic sectors. However, Standard Malaysia Rubber (SMR20) prices have frequently fluctuated. To predict the price situation in the future, it is crucial to construct a price prediction or forecasting model. As such, a study on forecasting Malaysian natural rubber prices over the next ten years needs to be done. The data gained for this study were from Malaysian Rubber Board covering 1995 to 2022. Univariate forecasting methods such as Holt's Winter, Double Exponential Smoothing, Naive with Trend and Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA) were used. The best method to forecast natural rubber prices was decided based on the lowest measurement error. From the analysis, ARIMA was chosen because it has the smallest measurement error to predict natural rubber prices over the next decade. As a result, Malaysia’s natural rubber prices showed an upward trend. Keywords: Natural rubber price, forecasting, autoregressive integrated moving average, measurement forecasting error

Impacts of natural rubber export trajectories on the regional development of the Brazilian Amazon Region between 1827 and 2021

This study has the following objectives: a - to estimate the instabilities and behavior of the trajectories of prices and exports of Brazilian natural rubber in each of the periods; b - to estimate forecast models of prices and exports of natural rubber from 1827 to 2021; c - to estimate the impacts of price forecast errors on the forecast errors of Brazilian rubber exports in the three periods that classify the trajectory of natural rubber exports. The research used data from the Brazilian Institute of Geography and the Brazilian Ministry of Industry and Trade. ARIMA models are estimated to predict the series of exports and prices of Brazilian natural rubber. From these models the forecast errors are generated and the influence of price forecast errors on the forecast errors of natural rubber exports is evaluated. Growth rates of exports and prices in the three periods studied were estimated, as well as the levels of instability of exports and prices. The results showed that both prices and exports of Brazilian natural rubber were quite unstable in the three periods evaluated and that the forecast errors of prices, as was one of the hypotheses of the research, interfered differently in the forecast errors of natural rubber exports and that exports had positive growth rates before and during the rubber cycle, while prices only had positive growth rates before and during the rubber cycle.

ARIMA model to forecast the RSS-1 rubber price in India: A case study for textile industry

Various rubber products are used in the textile industry. Due to increased foreign supply and synthetic rubber production, the price of natural Rubber in India has become more volatile. This paper aims to develop an appropriate model to predict the weekly price using the Box Jenkins methodology. The weekly price for Indian RSS-1 Rubber for the sample period from January 2002 to December 2019 has been collected from the official website of the Indian Rubber Board. ACF and PACF correlograms check the series stationarity and identify the model parameters. A model with the maximum number of significant coefficients, lowest volatility, lowest Akaike's information criterion (AIC), lowest Schwarz criterion and highest Adjusted R-squared is tentatively selected as the appropriate model and for the same model diagnostic check is carried out. An appropriate model to forecast the weekly price for the RSS-1 variety of Rubber is ARIMA (1, 1, 4).

RESPON PETANI KARET THAILAND, INDONESIA, INDIA, DAN LAOS MENGHADAPI RENDAHNYA HARGA KARET

Thailand is the largest natural rubber producer country in the world. In several years ago, the natural rubber price shows a negative trend. This condition make a rubber smallholder face difficulties in life. This paper aims to study efforts made by rubber smallholder to face low rubber prices. Methods in this paper used descriptive analysis with literature studies of the efforts undertaken by rubber smallholder in several rubber producer countries, especially in Thailand, Indonesia, India and Laos to face low rubber price. This study show that the alternative effort undertaken by rubber smallholder to face low rubber price generally was 1) management of cost production by reduced fertilizer and others factor production which no disturbed rubber income in short term condition; 2) develop other crops by intercropping technique on rubber side line; 3) looking for side jobs such as construction laborers, public transportation drivers, opening stalls and catching fish; 4) use of loans to maintain the standard of household living; 5) implement a joint marketing system to obtain a better rubber price; 6) selling or renting old and unproductive rubber land; and 7) renew/replanting rubber plantation.

The Effect of Domestic Consumption on Natural Rubber Farmgate Price in Indonesia

The decline in natural rubber farmgate prices in recent years directly impacted Indonesia’s natural rubber market. In response to this phenomenon, the government plans to increase natural rubber domestic consumption to raise Indonesia’s rubber price. This study aimed to determine the effect of increasing natural rubber domestic consumption on natural rubber farmgate prices and analyze other factors those influence it. The Error Correction Model was used to identify the variables that significantly affect Indonesia’s natural rubber farmgate price. The data used in this study were monthly data from January 2012 to December 2017. Results showed that natural rubber domestic consumption did not significantly affect the Indonesia natural rubber farmgate price. However, in the long run, Indonesia’s natural rubber farmgate price was influenced by the previous period of Indonesia’s natural rubber prices, world natural rubber prices, world crude oil prices, and exchange rates. While in the short run, Indonesia’s natural rubber farmgate price was influenced by the previous period of Indonesia’s natural rubber prices, world natural rubber prices, and exchange rate.

Competitiveness and determinants of Indonesia's natural rubber exports in main partner countries

The main destination countries play an important role in Indonesia's natural rubber exports, as most of Indonesia's natural rubber is exported to these countries. The purpose of this study was to examine the comparative advantage and determinants of Indonesia's natural rubber exports to major partner countries. The RCA (Revealed Comparative Advantage) index is used to assess the comparative advantage, and panel data regression analysis is used to analyze the determinants of exports to the main partner countries (USA, China, Japan, India, Republic of Korea, Brazil, Canada, Germany, Belgium and Turkey). The results of this study indicate that Indonesian natural rubber has a comparative advantage in the main partner countries, which are characterized by RCA index >1. In addition, it was determined that based on panel data regression, the increase in the world price of natural rubber and export restriction policies have led to a decline in natural rubber exports from Indonesia. It is found that the population of Indonesia reduces exports, while the population of partner countries increases exports due to population growth, which will increase the consumption of natural rubber. On the other hand, the increase in Indonesia's gross domestic product (GDP) will lead to an increase in natural rubber production capacity, which will contribute to an increase in exports. It is found that the previous year's demand was also taken into account by partner countries that import Indonesian natural rubber. The results of this study can be useful for the Indonesian government and stakeholders (such as natural rubber producers and exporters) to identify strategies to improve export performance

Indian natural rubber price forecast–An Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA) approach

The objective of this study was to forecast the price of natural rubber in India during April 2019 to March 2020 by employing autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA). The monthly pricing data for the period from April 2008 to March 2018 was used for the study. The analysis was carried out during the year 2018–19. RSS4 (Ribbed Smoked Sheets), latex (60% DRC (Dry Rubber Content)) and ISNR 20 (Indian Standard Natural Rubber) are the different types of Indian natural rubber that are competitive in international rubber market. The prices of these types of natural rubber were taken for modelling. AIC was used as a selection criterion for the best-fitted model. ARIMA(3,1,2) for RSS 4, ARIMA (3,1,2) for Latex 60% DRC, and ARIMA (4,1,3) for ISNR20were the most suited modelsto forecast the price.The evaluation metrics were R2, Adjusted R2, Mean Absolute Error (MAE), Mean Absolute Percentage Error (MAPE) and Root Mean Square Error (RMSE). These were employed for validating the forecasting model. The price forecasting of natural rubber in India can be a better-suited tool for the policymakers to decide on their investment in natural rubber cultivation.

Analisis Integrasi Pasar Karet: Pada Delapan Provinsi Produsen Karet Terbesar di Indonesia

Rubber is the country's second largest foreign exchange earner in domestic agricultural products and provides the livelihood for 2.5 million families in Indonesia. Rubber plantations are spread in various provinces of Indonesia which are the second largest rubber producer with the largest plantation area in the world. The purpose of this study is to analyze the integration of the natural rubber market at the producer level and to find out how far changes in prices that occur in one market will cause changes in other markets. The analyzed provinces were eight provinces of Indonesia using the Vector Autoregressive (VAR) and Vector Error Correction Model (VECM) analysis methods using Rstudio and Eviews analysis tools. The price data used is from January 2016 to December 2021. The data obtained are from the SIM of the ministry of agriculture and the plantation service in the eight sample provinces with . The results of this study are that there is a balance and short-term and long-term integration between the largest rubber-producing provinces in Indonesia. Price changes in South Sumatra two months earlier had a negative effect on price changes in North Sumatra Province. Three months earlier, price changes in South Sumatra had a negative relationship with Lampung. This means that the increase in prices in South Sumatra Province in the previous three months led to a decrease in natural rubber prices in Lampung Province this month or vice versa and so on. Lag defined up to lag 3 (three months before) integration analysis supported by Granger causality test supported by IRF and FEVD.

Exploring the effect of different number of periods in Thailand natural rubber supply forecasting models

To dates, many studies attempted to forecast the price of natural rubber while many others also attempted to forecast the amount. The objective of this study was to explore the effect of different number of periods used in various forecasting models for the amount of natural rubber in Thailand. Monthly data from the Office of Agricultural Economics in the years 2007-2019 were obtained. Then the data were classified into 12 data sets; each of which had different number of periods including 12, 24, 36, 48, 60, 72, 84, 96, 108, 120, 132 and 144 months. Decomposition forecasting methods consisted of the addition divide and the multiplicative divide methods were adopted. Model accuracy indicators were the mean absolute deviation, the mean square error and the mean absolute percentage error. The results showed that the amount of natural rubber and time were positively correlated at 99% confidence level. The most suitable model for forecasting the amount of natural rubber in Thailand found in our study was the multiplicative divide method by using the number of periods at 36 months yielding the mean absolute deviation of 66,264.61, the mean square error of 7,988,871,007.41 and the mean absolute percentage error of 24.66%.

The Effect of Agreed Export Tonnage Scheme (AETS) Policy on Indonesia's Natural Rubber Exports to Japan

Natural rubber is one of Indonesia's major agricultural export commodities. However, the export performance of Indonesia’s natural rubber to several destination countries experienced a downward trend during the 2011-2019 period. Japan is one of the leading export destinations for Indonesia’s natural rubber, experiencing a downward trend in export value. This study aims to analyze Indonesia’s natural rubber exports to Japan and its agreed export tonnage scheme (AETS) policy. The study utilized a monthly time series data from 2011 to 2019. The data were analyzed using descriptive qualitative and error correction model (ECM) methods. The results showed the implementation of AETS policy and world natural rubber price had significant effect on the export value of Indonesia’s natural rubber to Japan in the long-run, but it is not applied in the short-run. Indonesia needs to improve the quality and productivity of natural rubber production to increase the performance of Indonesia’s natural rubber exports to Japan. Furthermore, Indonesia needs to evaluate the effectiveness of the AETS policy on natural rubber.

Estimating the economic impact of the white root rot disease on the Malaysian rubber plantations

Research indicates that white root rot disease can inflict severe economic damage on the Malaysian rubber industry, which is caused by the fungus, Rigidoporus microporus. Accordingly, the economic impact of this disease is assessed by the partial equilibrium model, called the Malaysian Agriculture and Plantation Greenhouse Gas Model. The model represents the major commodities of the Malaysian agricultural markets and predicts market prices and quantities between 2023 and 2063. Although Malaysia has a million hectares of rubber plantations in 2018, the results indicate the rubber plantations could lose 400,000 ha to the oil palm plantations. Furthermore, a slow 5% fungal growth rate could infect half of the remaining stands of rubber trees. The oil palms help buffer the losses from the fungus since Rigidoporus microporus cannot infect oil palm trees. The loss of the rubber trees leads to rising natural rubber prices that decrease natural rubber exports and increase natural rubber imports. As the fungal infection growth rate increases, the natural rubber price rises further while the trade balance worsens. In addition, the rubber plantation owners can eradicate the fungus by paying an annual treatment cost per hectare. A higher treatment cost leads to the landowners treating fewer trees.

Forecasting Malaysia Bulk Latex Prices Using Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA) and Exponential Smoothing

Natural rubber is an important component of many developed countries' socioeconomic structures because it is frequently used to manufacture essential consumer goods such as tires and latex gloves. The natural rubber industry is heavily affected by the volatility and unpredictability of the natural bulk latex markets. Forecasting natural rubber prices is critical for rubber industry in procurement decisions and marketing strategies. This study aims to model monthly bulk latex prices in Malaysia using Autoregressive Integrated Moving Averages (ARIMA) and Exponential Smoothing. The models performance are measured using the Mean Absolute Percentage Error (MAPE) and Root Mean Square Error (RMSE). The Malaysian Rubber Board has 132 historical prices for the latex in Malaysia from January 2010 to December 2020. They are used for training and testing in determining the forecasting accuracy. Overall finding show that ARIMA (1,1,0) provides the most accurate prediction. With a MAPE of 8.59 percent and an RMSE of 69.78 sen per kilogram, this model is considered the best and highly accurate.

CONTRACTUAL RELATIONS ON RUBBER MARKETS: LESSONS FOR BUSINESS AND ECONOMIC POLICY

The choice of manufacturing organization form and contracting method on the industrial markets requires evaluation of market volatility, including identification of the risks from the side of adjacent markets. The study aims at determining the ways synthetic rubber market participants adjust to imbalances in supply and demand. The analysis of consumer properties of synthetic and natural rubbers in the context of their industrial consumption allows us to argue that these types of rubber turn out to be both complements and substitutes at the same time. What is more, some of them may belong to the same market within the product boundaries (in terms of antitrust legislation). We use foreign trade customs statistics and historical production and consumption data to identify the sources of market imbalances such as: the gap between synthetic rubber production cost and the price of natural rubber; economic bubbles caused by the fluctuations in supply and the price of natural rubber; volatility in the demand for rubber from its main consumers — tire factories. We then turn to the possible risk mitigation mechanisms that may help market participants to cope with the imbalances: formula pricing, vertical integration and horizontal differentiation. The implementation of these mechanisms in practice is illustrated through cases of Russian companies: PJSC Nizhnekamskneftekhim, PJSC TATNEFT and SIBUR. We conclude with the recommendations on tools for synthetic rubber production development.

Does rubber expansion hinder the migration of rural labor? Evidence from southwest China?

AbstractThe expansion of agroforestry crops in South Asia has resulted in the reallocation of local agricultural resources, including labor force. Based on two‐wave panel data collected from more than 600 smallholder rubber farmers in southwest China, this study examines the impacts of rubber expansion on the migration of rural labor. The results show that smallholders planting more rubber plantations have significantly fewer migrant family members and lower likelihood of migration, revealing a significantly negative effect of rubber cultivation on the migration of rural labor. Given that the migration of rural labor is a major trend in rural economic transformation, rubber farming appears to result in the resource curse in rubber planting areas. In addition, a positive interaction effect between rubber cultivation and the price of natural rubber on the migration of rural labor reveals that the resource curse effect of natural rubber decreases with the decrease in the price of natural rubber. A period with a relatively low price of natural rubber provides an opportunity to foster the migration of rural labor in rubber planting areas.