ABSTRACT:An equivalence is proposed between two rainfall‐runoff methods with a long history of use in the United States and Europe. In watersheds where variable source areas dominate runoff, the two methods can have comparable probability distribution functions of moisture deficit, and therefore predict similar saturated runoff source areas. A novel approach is introduced to determine the S parameter in the Natural Resources Conservation Service (NRCS) method. This approach constrains S by the physical soil and topography characteristics of the catchment and depth to water table. The NRCS curve number method is at the core of many rainfall‐runoff models in hydrology. As a simple lumped parameter method, it is often scrutinized because it is not obvious how to derive S from catchment hydromorphological characteristics. The novel approach provides a clear physical meaning for S, allowing better estimation of this parameter in humid shallow water table environments where the variable source area can be the dominant runoff mechanism.